The Nifty stocks are very cheap to the FIIs as the Rupee appreciated from 45 range to 39 range. The FIIs already invested in India are enjoying the benefits of their wise decision and even the new/fresh sect of FIIs are buying the stocks at almost 13-15 % less than the prices prevailed on the day, after the 50 basis points rate cut by Fed i.e from 18th Sep-07. The reports say that the FIIs have invested ($4.8+ billion) more than Rs14800/- crores since 18th to 1st Oct.
The current P/E of Nifty as on date is at 23.4 and the Nifty at 5211. Now the best P/E can be at 25-26. So mathematically the Nifty could touch 25.5*5211/23.4 works out to be 5679. The FII fund flow and the euphoria of chasing stocks can last for few days, later the basics will come on to the discussion table.
The P/E is at the 2008 earnings that were not even calculated as the Sep.-07, results are not announced but already discounted to a large extent. In case of any dampen results from the core sector then the damage can be disastrous.
Even every thing goes well then also the P/E will settle at 21+, works out Nifty to be at 4677 or P/E at 22 then the Nifty could be placed at 4899.
So, in case get exited by the current bull run and buying at higher levels can take you to carry for at least 2 years before things works out on the new earnings of 2009-2010.
Thursday, October 04, 2007
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Global gains can be extended…?
The indices are rallying against each other at the global level and we are also integrated. The rally can be supported by the RIL and SBI as they were lagging.
At home, the Nifty has Bulls support above 5053 level and Bears wait until 5019 level and from there Bears will have advantage.
The RIL has support at 2275-71 levels and the upper side resistance at 2326-2331. The SBI has support at 1875-71 levels and the upper side resistance at 1926-1928.The RCOM has resistance at 626 and become weak below 603, Tata Steel has support at 835-34 and good support at 825-23, the resistance at 851.
The DLF is strong above 763, stop loss at 751-53 level. The UNITECH has bottom support at 312-09.
The run-up in REL has good bottom supports at 1305-06 and Relcap has good support at 1753-56 and the longs have to be maintained. The Bull move can be accelerated in Idea above 129 and in IFC above 149. Fresh long positions in L &T can be initiated above 2895.
Those who are long in NTPC can book their profits, as the target price is close at Rs 220/-
At home, the Nifty has Bulls support above 5053 level and Bears wait until 5019 level and from there Bears will have advantage.
The RIL has support at 2275-71 levels and the upper side resistance at 2326-2331. The SBI has support at 1875-71 levels and the upper side resistance at 1926-1928.The RCOM has resistance at 626 and become weak below 603, Tata Steel has support at 835-34 and good support at 825-23, the resistance at 851.
The DLF is strong above 763, stop loss at 751-53 level. The UNITECH has bottom support at 312-09.
The run-up in REL has good bottom supports at 1305-06 and Relcap has good support at 1753-56 and the longs have to be maintained. The Bull move can be accelerated in Idea above 129 and in IFC above 149. Fresh long positions in L &T can be initiated above 2895.
Those who are long in NTPC can book their profits, as the target price is close at Rs 220/-
The CRACKS & PLASTERING work ….
The Bulls are fully enjoying the days of happiness and the celebrations are being continued. The Bulls could push the Nifty to such a level that it will not fall so easily in-spite of the best efforts by the bears. The foundations at bottom are so strong that the continuation of “Bull Run” at this point in time is very much assured. But the strong numbers of the Sep-07 quarter can add value to the efforts made by the Bulls in advance other wise ?.
The power play is on and the markets are in thumps up situation to Reliance Power and its parent REL is enjoying the booty. The bulls are in charge of the Indices to scale up to new highs each time and every time.
The Monday move is a clear sign of cracks in the Bulls work but they could immediately do the plastering work to mitigate the severity of the damage. The Bears to some extent are shattered by the moves of Bulls on streets. As of now the time favours Bulls but from the US, the news flows are to be in favour of the bears and could exhaust the current Bull Run.
The strong case of Bears is their “life tonic” from the techs and their expression of inability to cope up with the rising rupee. The impending dangers in the US financial markets are cracking from the bottom and the slow down has begun beyond doubt. So the euphoria in the stocks across the globe could take a breathe for next six months as consolidation.
The power play is on and the markets are in thumps up situation to Reliance Power and its parent REL is enjoying the booty. The bulls are in charge of the Indices to scale up to new highs each time and every time.
The Monday move is a clear sign of cracks in the Bulls work but they could immediately do the plastering work to mitigate the severity of the damage. The Bears to some extent are shattered by the moves of Bulls on streets. As of now the time favours Bulls but from the US, the news flows are to be in favour of the bears and could exhaust the current Bull Run.
The strong case of Bears is their “life tonic” from the techs and their expression of inability to cope up with the rising rupee. The impending dangers in the US financial markets are cracking from the bottom and the slow down has begun beyond doubt. So the euphoria in the stocks across the globe could take a breathe for next six months as consolidation.
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