The Bulls hold the spectacular grip over the markets and saved the day with de-coupling with the rest of the world. The journey calculators went on counting the points added from the low to the highest but the markets interested to make a new high each time and every time for the last one month.
The correction happened only one day and the rest is internal and intraday. The side lined waiting money woke-up and starts chasing the stocks for now as if we are in a run-up Bull market. The RIIL has again made a 40% gain and the sugar stocks rallied by 15-20%.
The SGX Nifty suggests that the Asian markets are in green with Hang Sang by 1.35% and the Nikkei up by 1.8% and we are likely to open above 3400 with 50-60 points gap up. As suggested in my earlier the Nifty will take a breather here (………The Nifty could be expected to touch 3381-4408 in coming days as the momentum is well in place. The fag end of the run will be fast and surprising.)
The Nifty has good support at 3050 level and very good support at 2960-50 level. The markets rallied enough to cross the hurdles at 3135 and 3280 level. So the fall will become weak and bearish only when Nifty trades below 3000 level. The corrections will be stock specific and the overall markets are in higher orbit.
The Nifty has resistance at 3423 level and the support at 3311-09 and at 3273-71 level.
The Reliance rallied yesterday beyond expectation 1763 and the selling may come at 1787 level. The bottom support will come for today at 1706 and at 1695-91 level. The counter will become weak below 1693 level.
The bear hug counters like BHEL will become very weak below 1495 and it will get short covering if at all only above 1540 level. The other weak counter is Bharti will become weak below 620 level is facing resistance at 670 level. India bulls realest may see some selling pressure above 137-39 level and Rolta will face resistance to cross Rs75-77.
The counters like ICICI which went up on low activity may run up to 393 and to 403-06 level so long it trades above 373 level. It will become weak below 368 level.
The Rel Infra is good above 616 to touch 660 level but will become weak below 603 level. In case the stock shall not trades below 593 will see selling pressure from short sellers and the bull un-winding will accelerate for every 5 rupee fall.
Thursday, April 09, 2009
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
Correction in the momentum…..?
The markets across the globe are taking a breather in the Bull run initiated 4-weeks back. The Indian markets displayed the much required strength against the bad times when US falling to touch its 25 year lows and participated in the bounce back. Now the real testing time to our markets whether we could de-couple and rise or not?.
The SGXNifty suggests that the Nifty could see a cut of nearly 90 points in the opening. The Asian markets were down and Yester day holiday saved our cut but today Bears exert more pressure on the Bulls to hold the ground above 3150 level. The early morning support may come at 3130 level but the Nifty has support at 3080.
The RIL has the initial support at 1617-23 level and may touch 1594-91 level to bounce sharply above the first support level.
The HDFC the star performer may loose some strength but it is in the Bull grip so long it trades above 1609-1620 has the potential to touch 1945-60 level.
The much roller coaster rider with great swings either side happened on Monday in Rel Infra may yield to selling pressure; get support at 676-73 level and at 666 level. The scrip will rally to 669 level once it trades above 593 after this correction which may trap the bears by touching 532-526 level.
The best out-performers of the recent rally- LT has good support at 720-16 level and get very good support at 701-03 level, the RCOM will get support at 186-188 level, the Bharti is in Bull grip sol long it trade above 617-21 level.
The metal may correct sharply. The Sail likely to touch 93 level, The Tata steel may touch 206-09 level and the Sterlite may touch 345-43 level.
The correction will check the journey when the SBI reaches 1025-35 range, Relcap touches 369-73 range and the ICICI touches 329-324 range.
The SGXNifty suggests that the Nifty could see a cut of nearly 90 points in the opening. The Asian markets were down and Yester day holiday saved our cut but today Bears exert more pressure on the Bulls to hold the ground above 3150 level. The early morning support may come at 3130 level but the Nifty has support at 3080.
The RIL has the initial support at 1617-23 level and may touch 1594-91 level to bounce sharply above the first support level.
The HDFC the star performer may loose some strength but it is in the Bull grip so long it trades above 1609-1620 has the potential to touch 1945-60 level.
The much roller coaster rider with great swings either side happened on Monday in Rel Infra may yield to selling pressure; get support at 676-73 level and at 666 level. The scrip will rally to 669 level once it trades above 593 after this correction which may trap the bears by touching 532-526 level.
The best out-performers of the recent rally- LT has good support at 720-16 level and get very good support at 701-03 level, the RCOM will get support at 186-188 level, the Bharti is in Bull grip sol long it trade above 617-21 level.
The metal may correct sharply. The Sail likely to touch 93 level, The Tata steel may touch 206-09 level and the Sterlite may touch 345-43 level.
The correction will check the journey when the SBI reaches 1025-35 range, Relcap touches 369-73 range and the ICICI touches 329-324 range.
Tuesday, April 07, 2009
The strength displayed…..
The markets showed their positive strength on the back of Asian markets rally. The opening was so bullish but failed to hold on the gains due to the weakness in RIL, SBI, HUL and ITC but closed in positive territory with the help from RCOM, Bharti, LT, HDFC and HDFC bank.
The mid-cap rally is phenomenon be it ESSAR OIL BY 50%, RIIL BY
40%, GITANJALI BY 25%, MRPL & CHENNAI PETRO rose close to 20%. The rally is very sharp and interesting to complete the cycle to squeeze the retail short sellers in the market. These moves will threaten the other dare devils to think of selling in the market even though their calling is right. These pre-empting techniques are useful to the market movers/operators to manage their stocks to their tunes.
The market leader RIL seems exhausted, this can be confirmed when the Reliance fails to trade above 1693 level as the Reliance high made Monday at Rs1742/- is a clear indication of capping at the top. The correction may lead the stock to touch support at 1535-45 range.
The Nifty has first support at 3109-18 level and the second support at 3020-26 level. The Nifty will become weak only when it trades below the second support level. The consequent 3 day lows at 2962-66 level any way come to rescue the Bulls even a deep correction is un-warranted.
The Banking lot will correct sharply by more than 20% in this fall but the resilience to bounce is still inherent.
The mid-cap rally is phenomenon be it ESSAR OIL BY 50%, RIIL BY
40%, GITANJALI BY 25%, MRPL & CHENNAI PETRO rose close to 20%. The rally is very sharp and interesting to complete the cycle to squeeze the retail short sellers in the market. These moves will threaten the other dare devils to think of selling in the market even though their calling is right. These pre-empting techniques are useful to the market movers/operators to manage their stocks to their tunes.
The market leader RIL seems exhausted, this can be confirmed when the Reliance fails to trade above 1693 level as the Reliance high made Monday at Rs1742/- is a clear indication of capping at the top. The correction may lead the stock to touch support at 1535-45 range.
The Nifty has first support at 3109-18 level and the second support at 3020-26 level. The Nifty will become weak only when it trades below the second support level. The consequent 3 day lows at 2962-66 level any way come to rescue the Bulls even a deep correction is un-warranted.
The Banking lot will correct sharply by more than 20% in this fall but the resilience to bounce is still inherent.
Monday, April 06, 2009
The Asian surge….
The Asian markets are trading in green with a positive move up wards by 2.5-3.5% but with an exception of Shanghai Composite in red. The markets are filled with josh that could lead this rally further as the negative data coming is not surprising to the markets as it is used to live with.
The SGX Nifty is suggesting that the Nifty is well above the resistance level at 4265-80 level and currently trading at 4335 with low as 4265. So the markets shall run on its course as the Bulls are hungry for more. The Nifty could be expected to touch 3381-4408 in coming days as the momentum is well in place. The fag end of the run will be fast and surprising.
The good policy is to avoid fresh entry at this level. The Nifty likely to get support at 2935-65 level while coming down can be an etry point. The Nifty built this empire with a classic bottom building process at 2565 level for 3-days and 2740-2773 for 3-days and 2962-66 for 3 consequent days. So even by simple averaging theory suggests that the market has good support at 2775 level.
The Reliance was the first to move the Index has resistance at 1848 level and good support existed at 1535-15 level. The Rel-infra has the potential to touch 609-11 level and likely to touch 669-73 level in coming days so long it stays above 551-53 level.
The Banking giant though lagging the run but has potential to touch 1320 level if it stays above 1060-65 level. The ICICI bank is the most battered stock even in the recent bull-run is running in line with others but with great exhaustion may face resistance at 393 level but can be expected to touch 416-21 level. The stocks like NTPC, HDFC, HUL, Axis Bank and Bharti are becoming hot favourites for Shorting.
The SGX Nifty is suggesting that the Nifty is well above the resistance level at 4265-80 level and currently trading at 4335 with low as 4265. So the markets shall run on its course as the Bulls are hungry for more. The Nifty could be expected to touch 3381-4408 in coming days as the momentum is well in place. The fag end of the run will be fast and surprising.
The good policy is to avoid fresh entry at this level. The Nifty likely to get support at 2935-65 level while coming down can be an etry point. The Nifty built this empire with a classic bottom building process at 2565 level for 3-days and 2740-2773 for 3-days and 2962-66 for 3 consequent days. So even by simple averaging theory suggests that the market has good support at 2775 level.
The Reliance was the first to move the Index has resistance at 1848 level and good support existed at 1535-15 level. The Rel-infra has the potential to touch 609-11 level and likely to touch 669-73 level in coming days so long it stays above 551-53 level.
The Banking giant though lagging the run but has potential to touch 1320 level if it stays above 1060-65 level. The ICICI bank is the most battered stock even in the recent bull-run is running in line with others but with great exhaustion may face resistance at 393 level but can be expected to touch 416-21 level. The stocks like NTPC, HDFC, HUL, Axis Bank and Bharti are becoming hot favourites for Shorting.
Sunday, April 05, 2009
The Rally reached………….
The markets enjoyed the rally despite of all economic bad news and demand contraction at home but on US markets. The global markets were enthused by the US rally because every else country is in a better position the worst effected. Now the news headlines carrying the 17 month old recession is now taking efforts to rise from the lows. The same thing has reflected in their indices.
The dependant emerging markets (third world) countries will now feel the heat as there could be some time lag to face the challenges. Now the real testing times a head to our Indian corporate houses to overcome both the demand contraction at home and shrinking margin abroad. The US will place many restrictions to save their economy and the exporters will face the margin pressure as the Rupee already reached a level. So every 1% of rupee strengthens place the exporters at very disadvantage position. The plant shut downs of the new offshore acquisitions will squeeze the top corporate houses and the interest burden will erode the little earnings made. Now the future for Indian corporate houses is very challenging and so is their market cap.
The Nifty has cross the earlier resistance at 2860 level with ease as it could absorb the selling pressure at 2550-2630 level while the US is testing the Multi-year lows at DOW and NASDAQ. The rally is sharp and the openings wee also above 60-100 points on Nifty at the 3000 level to 3200 level shows the squeeze faced by the short sellers who expected the Nifty to follow US in down turn. This could propel the short covering above 3080 level to test the 3229 level. So is the case with Bank Nifty from 3320 to 4425 level. The stocks gained more than 40 to 80% from their lows in this 700 points Nifty rally triggered on first week end of March to date. The first quarter results and the predictions of the strength of the Third Front will carry the tunes to the market. As of now the Nifty may face resistance at 3280 level and may correct sharply.
The dependant emerging markets (third world) countries will now feel the heat as there could be some time lag to face the challenges. Now the real testing times a head to our Indian corporate houses to overcome both the demand contraction at home and shrinking margin abroad. The US will place many restrictions to save their economy and the exporters will face the margin pressure as the Rupee already reached a level. So every 1% of rupee strengthens place the exporters at very disadvantage position. The plant shut downs of the new offshore acquisitions will squeeze the top corporate houses and the interest burden will erode the little earnings made. Now the future for Indian corporate houses is very challenging and so is their market cap.
The Nifty has cross the earlier resistance at 2860 level with ease as it could absorb the selling pressure at 2550-2630 level while the US is testing the Multi-year lows at DOW and NASDAQ. The rally is sharp and the openings wee also above 60-100 points on Nifty at the 3000 level to 3200 level shows the squeeze faced by the short sellers who expected the Nifty to follow US in down turn. This could propel the short covering above 3080 level to test the 3229 level. So is the case with Bank Nifty from 3320 to 4425 level. The stocks gained more than 40 to 80% from their lows in this 700 points Nifty rally triggered on first week end of March to date. The first quarter results and the predictions of the strength of the Third Front will carry the tunes to the market. As of now the Nifty may face resistance at 3280 level and may correct sharply.
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