Ghastly but cowardly act….

The cowards of the human society envious of the progress of Indians, made an assault on the innocent human beings. They killed more than 150 and injured more than 380 in Mumbai. The poor victims paid their lives as penalty for this malicious act of the terrorists. The inhuman acts of these terrorists have to be condemned by one and all with out barriers. The heads of the state and the global leaders shall act firmly to bulldoze these un-lawful organizations without any consideration.
The history suggests that the markets are resilient to these kinds of terrors to dampen the economic investments in India. This time the severity will put the investors to think twice before drawing the final line. The markets made a decent bottom building process in the previous trading sessions but can be challenged due to this ghastly act. The DIIs and the MFs will rescue the free fall in case selling pressure in accentuated.
The markets across the globe advanced and our markets may face the selling pressure in the morning but can pull back to 2800 level for the Nov. expiry closing, as it was postponed to tomorrow.
The Nifty has good support at 2693 level and at 2663-61 level. In case RIL trades below 1095 and SBI trades below 1085 level and ONGC trades below 665 then the markets are weak. The RIL above 1122 and SBI above 1140 levels and ONGC above 695 levels can channel an up move. As the last day of expiry the volatility could be high.
The concern over inflation is no longer keeping the policy makers to tighten the liquidity may announce at least 50 bps of CRR and Repo cut to keeps the Bears away to take advantage of the crisis situation happened in our financial capital of India.

The HNI’s are wakeful…..

In my earlier article posted two days back mentioned about the possible bottom out of the Indian indices. The correction in the stock prices will of sector/ stock specific. The fall below 2500 will be an opportunity to build portfolio in the emerging sectors than can offer decent returns over next two years. Today……..

The BusinessLine (Wed, 26Nov.08) covered in it Market Watch page-11 titled ‘Investors should prepare for recovery trades’ Citi bailout could mark end of decline: JP Morgan, Bloomberg, Nov,25 ….Citigroup Inc’s rescue package by the US government may be the spur that ends declines in equity markets and investors should be “positioned for recovery trades” JP Morgan chase & co said. With valuations low and risk aversion high, Mr Adrian Mowat, JP Morgan,s Chief asia and emerging market strategist, said he believes “ most of the selling has been done”……..

At cross roads…..

The fear for “Longs” holding threatening the Bulls to hold despite the global good news due to the positive cues from the US. The markets are not enthused by the global cues because of delay in keeping the rate cut by the RBI and the Govt. is seriously busy with the election schedule posing a threat to Bulls.
The technicals were not violated due to this steep fall from a high of 2790 level to 2638 level. The steep fall push out those small investors who bought at lover levels and keep them away as this wild swings create tension. The informed individuals and HNIs, DIIs, MFs and the FIIs take the lower level to build their positions to average out and churn the portfolios to performing sectors from non performing sectors.
The concern is that the SBI trading below 1080 level and the Nifty trading below 2670-80 level. The Nifty low building is good but the pruning highs are a concern as the heavy weights turned bearish. The Bears are not applying the pressure but the Bulls are running away to accept the positions at higher level due the negative sentiment spread over the bourses. In case the Nifty crosses the resistance at 2693-97 level and closes above 2670 then the consolidation is on the buy side.
The RIL has to cross the 1140 level and close above 1109-11 level, SBI has to cross the 1147 and close above 1120. The ONGC has to cross the 697 resistance and the Bharti shall trade above 640 levels to accept the bear pressure is over and the positions built at the lower level.

The Reflections of the past…..

The history is to visit the past to plan for the future with the presents scenarios. The stock markets provide ample of evidence to correlate with the past experiences. The end of the Bull market can be gauged by the exuberant rise in the small cap stocks that are known to no body. The reverse is the case for the end of the bear market when the well known most trusted firm’s bankrupt and the HNIs and the wise will grab the opportunity to invest for long term. Now the time is……

Uncertainty is Certain… 25-12-2007

The stock valuations are most vulnerable by their nature to the minor and major issues and to local and international issues even if they are not of much importance on the face of influence a lot in the minds of investors cause anxiety fluctuate in price irrespective of the percentage of concern. We can easily say, “the uncertainty is certain” at the bourses each time and every time. Those who fear about uncertainty can search their souls in peace, as nothing is certain.

As expected in my earlier write up the market bounced back on bull track in 4 trading sessions.(………if the Nifty to close above 5935 with in 3 trading sessions. At the immediate level the Nifty shall not close below 5670 level to continue the bull run…….. The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma).

Now the challenge at the Nifty level is to stay above 5778-71 to register a new high and above 6400 level by the end of first week of Feb-2008. The run up in the prices of power and infra will take a back seat and the service sectors and hotels will enjoy the support of bulls along with FMGC & retail move. The gas transportation and the network is the emerging sector. I have been suggesting holding in Fertliser stocks and the next big bet on banks with insurance exposure. These sectors will explode maximum followed by oil exploration and allied services.

No longer immune…….

The Indian markets are resilient to the external pressures of equity fall as the markets see good future but the immediate and short-term pressures cann’t be ruled out. In my ealier write up dated: 29/10/2007, clearly mentioned the possible up side be capped at 6290.

It can’t be stretched further….

…..I foresee the Bull run can become a long consolidation period- more than 6-9 months with a range of 5250-6290 at Nifty level.
The markets are likely to see more down ward action than upward momentum. The rise and fall ratio could be of 1:3 from next week onwards until Aug-Sep-2008. Incase economy could face the challenges for next 6 months than the upward journey in the stocks resume. Indian stocks revaluation based on the broad based economy and growth prospects is over and the real test is that the companies have to perform given the opportunities, then the markets. So is US………

The markets are fighting for their survival as the Bull Run took a beating at the bourses. The markets will take considerable time to resume their upward move. (Pls.read my earlier write ups.---the range suggested at 5250-6290 but the high touched at 6347). The game plans of the operators are very clear that they took the Sub-prime issue for more than 6-months so that the retail investors forget. I warned that the sub-prime issue is much bigger than what they pronouncing.

Now the long period of consolidation is good opportunity to traders as they can get in and get out at every 12-15% rise and fall. The earnings will be good to the Indian industry as the consumer demand and the economic growth continue to flourish. The markets likely to test the bottom at 5192-5226 at the worst scenario but this will happen only if the Nifty fails to cross 5935 before the end of Jan-FO series.

The markets likely to get support at 5670 level as first support and if trades below that level then the support at 5445-15 level at the October-07 level. So long the Reliance stays above 2630-50 level, ICICI stays above 1135-29 level and the ONDC stays above 1090-1110, SBI stays above 2020 and the Bharti stays above 810 level the markets enjoy the bulls support. This correction is a measure to MFs & FIIs to save themselves from the Mid-cap trap happened at 2005.

The Fittest will….

The trouble was there in the market when the markets crossed 6300 at Nifty level and the supports became weak but it survived on the euphoria of Mid and small cap run-up. I personally warned in my write up titled..(Y can’t it be…………….Dt.18-11-2007……. I personally feel that the prices were sky rocketing with thin edge time to participate in those sharp moves is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.
The retail investor will now about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day the participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. Be cautious……………………).

The situation could not have this much worse but the deep write down mess in the US financial sector gave an opportunity to correct the steep valuations at the home. So the conclusion is as simple as that “Never buy beyond a point… the point can be identified by the age old, ever green safe investment method—P/E ratio”.

So never blame the market or the seller who made you to buy. It is a simple marketing strategy. While some one out for shopping shall understand his/her home needs rather than blaming marketing people. The emotions at stock market will drain the purse and fill the heart with pain.

The end of the BULLRUN?.17-12-2007

The markets are taking deep breath to settle for a long leap up move or end of the Bull Run? Is the question at this point? I see a steep correction like that happened in May 2005 if the Nifty to close above 5935 with in 3 trading sessions. At the immediate level the Nifty shall not close below 5670 level to continue the bull run. Incase the nifty fails to trade and close above 5885 tomorrow, it is likely that the markets likely to touch 5321-28 level and then markets need strong cues to rejuvenate the bulls. The big boys of the market are very silent for their own reasons but the time has come that they need to infuse vital medicine to the Bulls to take on Bears. The good support of RIL at 2640-30, SBI has support at 2135-2128, ONGC has support at 1060-70, Bharti at 835-829 level and the ICICI has support at 1085-1090. Incase two or three stocks could stay above 4-5% above those support levels then the markets are for the Bulls. The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma With out doubt, the Small cap and Mid-cap run-up story is intact until the Nifty stays above 4865-4935 levels.
Distribute and eliminate…………..21-11-2007

Who will buy at higher levels is all ways the question asked by many and the doubt can be answered only when some body experiences the taste of buying at the top and selling at the panic bottom.
“Don’t be CRAZY to chase…”, “be cautious…..,” the phrases often used and shout… buy buy buying—happening every where……create a confusion in the minds of investors and make them to believe every thing is rosy and beautiful. This is a classical effort to prepare the retail small investors to become scapegoats.

In my earlier write up cautioned the readers to think about the happenings at the bourses? The speeds at which things are happening are very new to Indian investors and are losing time, opportunity and money in the process. The game plans are designed in such a manner to eliminate the retail investor incase somebody holding good stocks at fair prices.

“The steep falls and steep rises give little time to think.”— “Stock Market” is a mind game and every step of investment shall go after through a research, understanding the business and the timing of pricing the investment.
At the end of the day “Minting Money” in the “Stock Market” comes by “Buy Low- Sell High” but not by buying cheap………………

Gross & wild violation…..22-11-2007

Any body who live with technicals can contribute this fall is steep and wild in violating the supports. Any way the fact is the bottom is lost. The hope totally depended on the reliance, ONGC and SBI. They are very strong even at this level of correction. The bulls have the last opportunity to believe the market is a Bull market until it stays above 5175-80 levels. The markets can fluctuate with a wide range of spread for a greater consolidation as the prices have reached relatively high level.
Then the hope lies a head so long the RIL stays above 2580 at immediate support level and can even touch 2440-50 level. The ONGC got the support at 1090 and even can touch 1010-20 level. The big banking leader can touch 2020-2030 and even touch 1910-1900.
So wait and see what will happen at global level and at the local level. The ray of hope lies with the support from local institutions and the deep-pocketed HNIs who are waiting for long time when the FIIs are at buying spree after the rate cut at US.

Y can’t it be…………….18-11-2007

The story is contrary to the current happenings at the bourses. The positive side shall go this way….
In my earlier write up I clearly mention to hold positions in fertilizer stocks for decent gains. Now they doubled from the prices recommended to buy & hold. In the same manner I wrote about the investments of FIIs in our markets. They first invested huge amounts in the Reliance group. They are familiar with the reliance group growth story than the Indian growth story. Now they are spreading their investments to other sectors with different groups. The large caps are rather fully saturated at the price level and left with little scope for further appreciation. So the MFs, FIIs and the DIIs are left with no option but to explore new opportunities with emerging companies though they are small to medium in size at this point in time. The flare up in prices is due to the mismatch in their size and the liquid cash chasing the stock.
The negative side shall go this way….
The small cap and the medium cap stocks are now in their flare-up run at the bourses, but the investigative approach can show a dark side of manipulations in the game.
The story goes back to the 2005-2006, the FIIs, the MFs and the operators heavily invested in (the early bird catches the fish) the Mid-small cps to capture the instant large gains which turned out a futile effort due to lack of liquidity due to the steep crash when the Sensex was at 12000 range. The investments became dud for long two years with no moves. After a long frustration, now these people captured the up moves with vengeance. I personally feel that the prices were sky rocketing with thin edge time to participate in those sharp moves is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.
The retail investor will know about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day the participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. Be cautious……………………

The retail investors always caught because of the Price Luring while moving up and Fear of Loss while falling down. The markets always provide enough chance to make money but we tend to be ignorant to catch the opportunity. So it is not the BEST PRICE to buy A STOCK but the RIGHT TIME to buy is very important.

The Citi may not sleep….

The bottoms of the Nifty are intact, gained some strength at 2685 level and the Nifty likely to easily cross the 2839-41 level and may touch 2865-69 level with the markets/economy stimulus actions proposed by the Indian govt.and the positive but cautious views of Obama and his economic team. The markets took all measures that can help it to advance to scale high to give decent returns to Bulls. The sector specific moves are now stock specific and news specific.
The Citi bail out package and the proposed auto makers support plans may ease pressures on Bulls and short covering may emerge across the globe for a decent rally in December.

Expected Positive move……

The life in the Indian markets was displayed as expected in the previous post. …..The immediate first aid help to markets considered completed when Nifty crosses the 2680 level…….The makets moved in the last 45 minutes to surprise the bears and closed at 2693 level and touched a high of 2718.60. The markets displayed the strength but the volume is nothing special to mentions. The move is to threaten the bears and to display the inherent zeal to buy at the rock bottom levels.
The money inflow to mutual funds is a positive signal, the recovery in the global markets along with India may continue for some time unless some thing unusual catches the headlines.

The DLF belied the expected move to cross the 236 level but accepted the resistance at 219 and made a journey to touch 180 is a negative signal that to with huge volume despite the buy back at 600 was on. The real estate sector as a whole will see a subdued life for another two years as they are grossly depended on the FII shopping, HNIs and the NRIs. So those who want to wait and continue to buy at lower levels irrespective of the price can choose the sector as it has higher value to unfold in future but the near-term is bleak.
The plan of the Govt. to spend on infra structure was good but the life of the govt is too little to make a change. So this can generate hope but the actualized benefits are small.
The Nifty has made a decent bottom at the 2500-50 level, unless broken that support and SBI trades below 1085-90 level, the upward journey is likely to continue till 2930 is reached. The tiggers for the up move basically short covering and the positive news flow from the globe.

Expected Positive move……

So the life in the Indian equity markets was displayed as expected in the previous post. …..The immediate first aid help to markets considered completed when Nifty crosses the 2680 level…….The makets moved in the last 45 minutes to surprise the bears and closed at 2693 level and touched a high of 2718.60. The markets displayed the strength but the volume is nothing special to mentions. The move is to threaten the bears and to display the inherent zeal to buy at the rock bottom levels.
The money inflow to mutual funds is a positive signal, the recovery in the global markets along with India may continue for some time unless some thing unusual catches the headlines.

The DLF belies the expected move to cross the 236 level but accepted the resistance at 219 and made a journey to touch 180 is a negative signal that to with huge volume despite the buy back at 600 was on.
The real estate sector as a whole will see a subdued life for another two years as they are grossly depended on the FII shopping, HNIs and the NRIs. So those who want to wait and continue to buy at lower levels irrespective of the price can choose the sector as it has higher value to unfold in future but the near-term is bleak.
The plan of the Govt. to spend on infra structure was good but the life of the govt is too little to make a change. So this can generate hope but the actualized benefits are small.
The Nifty has made a decent bottom at the 2500-50 level, unless broken that support and SBI trades below 1085-90 level, the upward journey is likely to continue till 2930 is reached. The tiggers for the up move basically short covering and the positive news flow from the globe.