Saturday, September 20, 2014

CHINA INVESTMENT- $20 bn over 5 years...!!!


President Pranab Mukherjee, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Xi's wife Peng Liyuan during a ceremonial reception at Rashtrapati Bhawan in New Delhi

The expectation of a $100-billion Chinese investment in India got reduced on Thursday as the country committed itself to investing only $20 billion here over five years. The issue of border tension between India and China also came up during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on the second day of the former’s maiden visit to the country.

Modi, though, did not harp much on the issue of defining the line of actual control (LAC) and incursions as strongly as was expected, a top official in the know of what transpired behind closed doors told Business Standard.

Modi had appeared unusually relaxed in a beige kurta and an off-white Nehru jacket as he sat for the much-awaited bilateral talks with an exuberant Xi at the swish Hyderabad House here.
The prime minister said it was imperative to settle the issue of border dispute soon, as that would help gain mutual trust and confidence. “Clarification of will greatly contribute to our efforts to maintain peace and tranquility. We should seek an early settlement of the boundary question,” Modi said, adding in the same breath, border-related agreements and confidence-building measures between the two sides “worked well”.

Many said the new stance — without the usual rhetoric, in a departure from the practice of previous prime ministers — signalled pragmatism. According to another official, Modi was “determined” that this time he would show the Chinese government that India meant business and not just crying foul over border issues.

On his part, Xi said many incursions took place due to non-demarcation of the border. “China has the determination to work with India through friendly consultation to settle the boundary question at an early date.”

He also said China believed in having “peace and harmony” with its neighbours and would be ready to support India’s permanent membership to the United Nations Security Council, provided the border dispute was settled. “We will support India’s seat in the UN Security Council. But both neighbours might have to encounter some problems before that. We would first like to settle the border issue in a way that is fair, mutual and acceptable to both,” Xi said while addressing an event organised by the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA).

Apart from signing as many as 15 memoranda of understanding (MoUs) over two days — plus the 27 that were signed among private firms of both countries — China committed itself to investing $20 billion in India over five years across all sectors of the economy.

Earlier, there were reports that China might commit $100 billion worth of investments in India’s infrastructure development, though there was no official word from Beijing. Had it been so, the Chinese commitment would have been more than the $35 billion promised by Japan during Modi’s recent visit to Tokyo.    

Ahead of Xi’s visit, Chinese embassy officials had briefed Indian scholars that the investment promised would be $100 billion. How this figure came down to $20 billion remained a mystery, the scholars confessed.

The $55 billion investment by Japan and China is 5.13 per cent of the $1.07 trillion the Confederation of Indian Industry reckons India would need to build its infrastructure over the 2014-19 period. The Chinese commitment is 1.86 per cent of this requirement.

In the past 10 years, China has invested $400 million in India. “We agreed that our economic relations did not do justice to our potential. I expressed concern over the slowdown in trade and the worsening trade imbalance. I sought his partnership in improving market access and investment opportunities for Indian companies in China. President Xi assured me of his commitment to taking concrete steps to address our concerns. I have invited Chinese investments in India's infrastructure and manufacturing sectors. I also apprised him about our new policies and administrative steps in this area,” Modi said after his meeting with Xi.

China said it would set up two industrial parks — one each in Gujarat and Maharashtra — which would act as both manufacturing and export hubs. The initial plan is to manufacture power equipment and then gradually expand to making electronic goods and telecom equipment. These parks are expected to be spread over 1,250 acres.

China will also actively participate in developing the country’s rusty rail network. For this, the Chinese seem to have developed a two-pronged strategy. On the one hand, they will increase speed on the existing railway line from Chennai to Mysore via Bangalore, with the Chinese side providing training in heavy haul for 100 Indian Railway officials. On the other, the two sides will cooperate in areas like redevelopment of existing railway stations and setting up of a railway university here. India is also considering cooperating with China on a high-speed rail project.

According to Modi, these measures would open a “new chapter in our economic relations”. He later tweeted a wide range of issues were discussed over two days and both countries decided to “deepen the engagement”.

The issue of soaring trade deficit was highlighted by Modi in the strongest terms possible, sources said. The prime minister also sought improved access to Chinese markets for Indian products and easy investment opportunities for Indian companies.

An agreement was signed between Commerce & Industry Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her Chinese counterpart Gao Hucheng to address the problem of trade deficit by giving enhanced market access to Indian agricultural and pharmaceutical products, besides services. Ronen Sen, India's former ambassador to the US, said the Xi visit had changed the tone of India-China bilateral relationship. “We should stop looking at China from the way we used to. Today, trade and investments have become an integral part of the bilateral relationship. We need to economically integrate with them more, for our own benefit. We should, as Prime Minister Modi this time rightly did, change the predictability factor in our bilateral ties,” Sen said.

Earlier in the day, Chief of Army Staff Dalbir Singh Suhag and other generals had gone armed with detailed maps ahead of Defence Minister Arun Jaitley’s participation in a meeting with Xi. They had briefed the minister on the standoff in and about the ground situation on the demarcation of the border along the LAC.

MAJOR AGREEMENTS
  • India and China agree to resolve border dispute and define the Line of Actual Control soon
  • Both sides agree to look at greater cooperation on the issue of shared rivers
  • Take positive steps towards rebalancing bilateral trade and addressing the existing structural imbalance in trade
  • China to set up two industrial parks for 1,250 acres each in Gujarat and Maharashtra
  • China to invest $20 billion in various industrial and infrastructure development projects
  • Increase speed on the existing railway line from Chennai to Mysore via Bangalore
  • Chinese side will provide training in heavy haul for 100 Indian Railway officials
  • Cooperation in High Speed Rail project
  • Annual visits at the level of Heads of State/Government
  • City in each country would be identified for a smart city demonstration project
  • BCIM (Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar) Economic Corridor to be expedited
  • Chinese side decided to open a new route for the Mansarovar Yatra through Nathu La Pass
  • China will be the partner country at the Delhi International Book Fair 2016.

ACTION ‘PACT’ DAY
Documents signed between India & China on Thursday
  1. MoU on new route for Mansarovar pilgrimage
  2. MoU to strengthen cooperation in railways
  3. Action plan for cooperation in railway projects
  4. Trade and economic development plan (includes $20-billion Chinese investment over five years)
  5. Agreement on minutes of the 10th session of India-China joint economic group, for specific measures to enhance market access to Indian agricultural and pharma products, besides services
  6. Agreement for audio-visual co-production
  7. Agreement for cooperation in Customs
  8. Agreement for peaceful use of space
  9. Agreement for cooperation between cultural institutions
  10. MoU for book fairs, etc
  11. Work plan for cooperation in pharma standards, traditional medicine and drug testing
  12. Agreement for sister city relationship between Mumbai and Shanghai
http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/china-dashes-100-bn-hope-to-invest-20-bn-over-5-years-114091800557_1.html
===========
THE STORY OF OVER 5 YEARS IS NOT A VISIBLE SIGN AS WE DON"T TRUST EACH OTHER....
THE 12 AGREEMENTS ARE NOT IN SPECIFIC PROJECT PROPOSALS BUT FOR CONFIDENCE BUILDING ONE....
THE PM's JAPAN VISIT IS MORE CONSTRUCTIVE THAN THIS ONE...

ANY ONE THING IS SURE THAT OUR INFRA STRUCTURE FUNDING NEEDED IS THAT THE REQUIREMENT IS $1.07 trillion the Confederation of Indian Industry reckons India would need to build its infrastructure over the 2014-19 period, SO EVEN IF WE GARNER ONE THIRD IS MORE THAN 300 BILLION DOLLARS...HUGE POTENTIAL TO INFRA COMPANIES.....BET ON ...SELECTIVELY...!!!
THE UTILITIES LIKE CEMENT, STEEL, CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT AND OTHER SERVICES WILL SEE BRIGHT FUTURE..!!!

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Sensex still 20% from all time highs...Dollar-adjusted one...!!!

Dollar-adjusted Sensex still 20% from all time highs
Currency has depreciated from around Rs 40 to Rs 60 since previous high in 2008Sachin P Mampatta  |  Mumbai  
 Last Updated at 12:44 IST
The The S&P BSE Dollex 30, an index which looks at Sensex returns adjusted for changes in the dollar exchange rate, is currently at 3,626.08.
The highest level for the index was 4,365. It will need to gain another 738.92 points or more than 20% to reach its previous all time highs. The Sensex has been touching new all-time highs repeatedly. It crossed the 27,000 mark earlier in the month.
The difference between the two indices is because of the difference in exchange rates during the two times. The going rate for a dollar during January 2008 was around the Rs 40. This is now near Rs 61, a 50% difference.
While a falling rupee erodes the gains of existing foreign investors, it makes Indian stocks cheaper for fresh money.
Foreign institutional investors or FIIs(now called Foreign Portfolio Investors or FPIs) have been net buyers in Indian equities by over Rs 84,000 crore in this calendar year.  Theseare expected to continue to be strong, according to Karvy Stock Broking's 'India Equity:Diwali Strategy' note
"The revival in global risk appetite has resulted in fresh inflows into emerging market equities with India turning out to be a big beneficiary. India has been one of the top performing equity markets since January this year with fresh equity inflows of 12.5 billion dollars. We expect the remaining months of this fiscal to witness similar amount of inflows," it said.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/dollar-adjusted-sensex-still-20-from-all-time-highs-114091800331_1.html

NIFTY AT CROSS ROADS...

THE STORY OF FAITH AND POSITIVE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT IS WANING FAST AS THE OTHER DEVELOPMENTS ARE POSTPONING THE FUTURE COURSE OF ACTION AT THE GOVT. LEVEL.

THE SUPREME COURT JUDGEMENT MAY NOW BE DISCOUNTED BUT WILL BE POSITIVE BOTH TO CORPORATE SECTOR AND THE BUREAUCRACY.....

NOW MARKETS ARE TECHNICALLY AT THE CRUCIAL JUNCTURE AS THE 8030-42 RANGE WAS BROKEN DECISIVELY. NOW THE RELIEF RALLY FAILS TO CROSS 8072 LEVEL IS A SERIOUS THREAT TO BULLS. THE CONTINUOUS UNWINDING IS MAKING NERVOUS TO NEW BUYERS AS THE DEEP-POCKETS ARE SELLING THEIR LONGS....

THE FALL STARTED FROM 8-14 AUGUST, THE JP ASSOCIATES MASSACRE BUT MANAGED TO STOP THE WILD FIRE SPREAD, TOOK SMALL CAP PHENOMENAL RISE AS GUARD TO KEEP THE RETAIL INVESTOR INTEREST INTACT...

THE BOTTOM SUPPORTS ARE FAR AWAY AS THE NIFTY CAN DANCE A WHILE AT EACH SUPPORT LEVEL AT 7800, 7480 BUT THE SOLID SUPPORT WILL COME WHEN IT TOUCHES 7200 RANGE...CAN WE EXPECT FAST...IS IT ACCEPTABLE...!!!...NO...SIMPLY GRINDING LOWER AND LOWER......

THE TEST OF BOTTOM CAN BE ASCERTAINED WHEN YES BANK TOUCHES 420-430 RANGE, ICICI TOUCHES 1240-1180 RANGE.... AND THE BANK NIFTY WILL FIND SUPPORT AT 12500-800 LEVEL....
THE SEPTEMBER RESULTS, OCTOBER POLL RESULTS WILL ADD WAIT ON RISE RATHER THAN SUPPORT TO BULLS..SO TILL BUDGET...SIMPLY WAIT FOR LONG-TERM INVESTMENT...

Truant monsoon -11 % DEFICIT..!!!

Truant monsoon could hit Rabi crop prospects too
TOMOJIT BASURadha Mohan Singh
NEW DELHI, SEPT. 17:  With deficit rainfall at 11 per cent, Union Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh stated on Wednesday that parts of the country that had been acutely affected by the erratic monsoon this year will find the Rabi (winter) sowing season challenging.Major wheat producing states like Uttar Pradesh (UP), Haryana and Madhya Pradesh, have had shortfalls in rain with UP declaring 40 districts as drought-hit this week. Haryana had declared all 22 districts drought affected on September 2. Wheat, barley, potato, mustard and maize, are the primary Rabi crops and are sowed at the beginning October and harvested in spring.“Regions that received deficit rainfall will be affected during sowing for the Rabi season. However, despite 11 per cent deficit in rainfall, the situation is not like during 2009 and acreage is down only 3 per cent,” said Singh at the inauguration of a national event highlighting various aspects of the Rabi season.“We managed to institute timely policies to face the challenges of the delayed monsoon. We implemented a diesel subsidy scheme, increased ceiling of the subsidy on seeds, waived duties on the imports of various feed ingredients and provided financial support for horticultural crop growers etc. Contingency plans were prepared for 565 districts,” he added, stating that States would be provided all assistance to achieve production targets.Singh reiterated that prices would be kept under control, using the example of prevailing prices for potatoes and onions at Rs. 30-35 per kilogram (kg) as compared to Rs. 80 per kg under the previous government at this time last year.Fallow land utilisation & production targetsState governments have been asked to utilise nearly 3.37 million hectares of land that was left unsown during the kharif season due to the shortfall in rain. Production of pulses and oilseeds on such land where moisture content had improved would be concentrated on.J S Sandhu, the Agriculture Commissioner, informed that the production target for wheat had been set at 94 mt and that the Government would attempt to utilize 3.37 million hectares of land that had been left fallow during the kharif due to the shortage of rainfall. The year’s targets for rice (14 mt), barley (1.75 mt), maize (6 mt), millets (2.5 mt), pulses (12.5 mt), oilseeds (11 mt) and foodgrains (130.75 mt) were also released.“We are trying to enforce seed certification standards and also further the area application of micronutrients in the soil. The promotion of seed production during the off-season to make up for deficiencies is something we are trying as well planning in advance for summer pulses,” said Sandhu. Strategies to tackle wheat crop diseases like Yellow Rust and Karnal Bunt were underway as well, he added.(This article was published on September 17, 2014)http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/deficit-rainfall-hits-rabi-sowing/article6419713.ece?homepage=true