Saturday, March 08, 2008

Start accumulating the blue-chips…..

In my earlier write up clearly mention not to sell the enterprise so long the growth prospects are in tact in the long run. As an investor in stock markets one needs to be conscious to understand the developments happing around the globe and try to understand the impact over the prospects of the industry that was chosen as an investment opportunity. Please read my earlier write ups that can throw some light on the future prospects and the necessary levels that Nifty and the frontline stocks that needs to cross. Pls. read…. Distribute and eliminate…(21-11-2007), The end of the BULLRUN?.(17-12-2008), No longer immune…….(06-01-2008)

Never sell the Enterprise…(Dt.29-1-08)

The markets are facing rough time but the ray of hope lies in the growth story. The markets are likely to bounce back to new levels and even cross the High in the months to come as the dust will settle after two quarters. The India’s economy growth is intact and the corporate performance will improve in future. The internal consumption is huge and the breadth is increasing by strength.

The Nifty is strong at 4500-4600 levels. The range suggested earlier (5200 to 6300) is still a valid range as the FII’s have heavily from 19th Sep-07 to 16th Oct-07, invested at the 4500-5700 Nifty levels. The FII out flow is a cause of concern at this point in time but not at all a worry some event.

So long Reliance stays above 2430-50 level, ICICI stays above 1035-29 level and the ONGC stays above 1000-990, SBI stays above 2020 and the Bharti stays above 810 level the markets enjoy the bulls support.

It is very unfortunate that the retail investors who buy at the high/index and sell at the bottom of the index. The stock market investment is a skillful and precision job where knowledge and experience go hand in hand.
The novice investors, who mostly lured by the media message, think that it is very easy to make money from the market operations. The seasoned operators spread the rumors with lucrative price targets that attract the scapegoats to stock markets. The fresh flesh of scapegoats makes the feast tasty at the bourses. Like the instant coffee making machine, markets never spin sustained money but the losers at all times believe the rumors that it pores money but most retailers choose markets as investment avenue just because it allows everybody to participate even with their meager hard earned money.
The false conviction promotes to take large leveraged positions to make quick money at the earliest possible duration. The suggestions from the seniors turned down at the instance and that becomes melodious music to the deaf ears as every body thinks that the cheese is large enough to have their share.
It is a great opportunity for those who recognize the treasure that was stored in the stock markets and invest regularly for a period of time like any other plantations but most lack the patience to grab the opportunity. It is very important to identify a right stock at the right time is the crux of making money at the bourses -“Early bird catches the fish”.

Monday, March 03, 2008

Get the Bud from the “Budget”………

The stimulus dose has been given to the slowing economy by the FM. The dose is a long acting balanced one. The sustained release of the budget proposal can be a good foundation to maintain the 8.5% growth rate. So get plant with the bud now and enjoy the fragrance of the flower later.

The auto sector will benefit from the excise cut but the rising cost of inputs is a great concern. So no run up or flare up at this point in time but the laggards will benefit the most in the long run.
The banking sector got the liquidity from the write off and support to the extent from the govt. The real problem is the new loan can get the repayment on time?.
The cigarettes get costlier that to the poor persons choice- no filtered one.
The Dividend double taxation is no more can support the parent companies whose subsidiaries are doing well.
The excise cut and rationalization of CENVAT can save good amount of tax saving to big companies, can add to the bottom line of the manufacturing sector.
The drag is from the petrochemical sector and the techies. The customs duty cut at the import level can save some amount but the levies on naptha will eat away the profits.
The tea sector got the excise relief.
The steel sector is nothing to worry or cry for the direct support from the govt. The infrastructure spending can take care.
The tourism and the hotel sector go hand in hand for their survival.
The cement companies are paying the price for the confrontation they made, now the telecom sector joined.
The set top boxes, data cords and the Internet expansion can add to volumes but not from the “Hello FM”.
The cold chain and the retailers are the sustained growth sectors in future got the required support from the budget.
The clear winner of the budget is the Pharma. The companies can get undisputed and the most required support on fronts. The hospitals also got the support and the health of net profit “insured”, be improved upon.

The Nifty can get the bottom support but the draggers put pressure on the top.

The politicians and the bureaucrats failed to dig-out the accumulated black money for more than 50 years but understood to crush the genuine tax players. The most unorganized sector of Dalal Street got deathblow. The Day traders whose support is crucial for the liquidity mercilessly squeezed. The need of the hour is to create a big union of the day traders and the short-term investors/momentum supporters to get the voice heard to the Delhi lobby.

A WILD DREAM- “THE MINISTER FOR SPECULATION” - WRITEOFF THE LOSSES MET BY DAY TRADERS AND SMALL INVESTORS AND 25 % TO HNIs, INCURRED DURING THE STEEPFALLS FROM 1991 UPTO JAN-2008. THE MINSTER ALSO QUOTED “ LOSS IS A LOSS TO ANY BODY AND THE GOVT. IS MADE BY EVEVRY BODY SO NOT COMITTED FOR SOMEBODY”.