Thursday, September 11, 2008

The inflation down…

The inflation was down to 12.10% from 12.34%, extended the decline curve to a consecutive third week but our markets are also down in-spite of the slowing down of inflation and the falling crude. The markets are worried over the future growth prospects rather than the present favourable news.
A survey showed that the major companies in US cut their IT budgets by 40%, the firms put on hold increasing. The Reuters survey with eminent economists revealed a fact the developed nations are now grapping with credit crunch and a year of recession for sure.
The DOT, Department of Telecom, plans to complete the auction by 30 Sep-08, has changed the guidelines to participate in 3G auction to those who have prior experience in 3G can bid and have to pay the pan India license fee. The Broadband Wireless Access (BWA) services got new frequency band of 2.3 GHz in addition to the 2.5 GHz band.
The MARKET pulse check by STOCKOMETER: as posted in the morning the Nifty made a high at 4399.30 and a low at 4272.75…( The Nifty is weak below 4391-93 level and to see the upward movement then it has to trade above 4480 level. So at present we are struggling to protect our supports at the bottom level. As such the bottoms supports are below 4350 level are close to one another. The 4339-41, 4321-19 and the 4285-89 will come at this critical time but the problem is the pressure on the higher levels).

Can we bottomed out…?...

The US markets recovered but the Asian majors are in red with deep cut may place our markets in red. The markets are expected to see some recovery in the fag end to see the bottoming out at 4250-60 is intact. The SGX Nifty is currently at 4338, a discount of more than 60 points. The Hang Seng down by 475 points (2.37%), The Nikkei is down by 150 points (1.2%) may put further pressure on our markets.
The Nifty is weak below 4391-93 level and to see the upward movement then it has to trade above 4480 level. So at present we are struggling to protect our supports at the bottom level. As such the bottoms supports are below 4350 level are close to one another. The 4339-41, 4321-19 and the 4285-89 will come at this critical time but the problem is the pressure on the higher levels.
The RIL news to increase the gas from D-6 block, LT 750+ cr orders and the BHEL 2200+ cr orders and scouting for new alliance with GE, the telecom investments all are now discounted will get life when the markets turn up.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Crude falls below 100…..

The crude oil the biggest trouble shooter in the fist and second quarter up to July touched a high close to 150 dollar a barrel now fell below 100 dollar due to the global economy slow down. The Indian infrastructure growth declined to 4.3 % compared to 7.2% last year but a consoling factor is it inched up when compared to last month at 3.4%. The Rupee breached the 45 mark against dollar, a nearly two year low.
The Indian markets though flooded with good news but were down due to global cues. The Nifty was down by 68 points today but still in positive territory when compared to last Friday closing by 48 points. So we are still outperforming the major Asian markets on net basis.
The MARKET pulse check by STOCKOMETER:
The markets behaved in line with the morning suggested levels but failed to understand the Banking sector strength which proved that I am wrong.
(….There was no such deviation from the earlier levels but the gravity favouring the bears. So the banking lot is most favoured sector to sell. ICICI bank may again see 680 levels, even less. The SBI has support at 1496-93 level, Relcap has support at 1286 level and the best could be at 1269-71 level. The other stock has earlier levels suggested are valid for this day.
The ICICI bank made a high at 704 and low at 686.35. The SBI touched high at 1583.70 and low at 1535, The Relcap made a high at 1355 and low touched at 1315.0
The traders might have observed how ONGC fell below 1093 to touch a low of 1053.15, DLF failed to cross 515 level and took support at 496.0, the JP failed to cross 176. All these levels were earlier discussed.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The meltdown continues…..

The markets lost every thing they gained as the fear crystalising and shadow of US economic slow down are fast spreading the Asia and other emerging markets. The Indian ADRs lost more much value as HDFC bank lost more than 7%, ICIC Bank lost 5.77% and the tech pack lost around 2.5%.
The Hang Seng lost 345 (1.68%), Nikkei lost 131 points (1.06%) and our SGX Nifty is trading around 4445 level.
There was no such deviation from the earlier levels but the gravity favouring the bears. So the banking lot is most favoured sector to sell. ICICI bank may again see 680 levels, even less. The SBI has support at 1496-93 level, Relcap has support at 1286 level and the best could be at 1269-71 level.
The other stock has earlier levels suggested are valid for this day.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

The consolidation …

The markets took support from the heavy weights like Bharti, RCOM, LT, SUZLON, RIL, ONGC and ICICI Bank. They either advanced a bit or gave bottom support from further erosion.
The markets are taking time to see that the final hurdle at US senate to complete the process with out any postponement.
The RBI’s “inflation watch” kept the markets keeps guessing the new Governors calculation on the money supply.
The MARKET pulse check by STOCKOMETER: the markets took support at the crucial level as expected and closed on a positive level above the resistance level at 4450. I mentioned in the morning that ….(The opening will be influenced by the rest of the world but the closing is very important to see the strength in our markets to claim that the N-deal and emerging blue chip market.)
…(..The Nifty has support first support at 4449 and at 4421-16 level which is crucial and the markets shell not get any supply of shorts at this level. If Nifty could trade above 4481-3 level is a bullish sign but the high had to be crossed the minor resistance at 4505-08 level for this day).
The NIFTY high at 4497.50 and the low at 4418.95

The Reliance has support at 2101-03 and the best support at 2088-91 level. The resistance at 2156-59 level…. The RIL high at 2159 and the low at 2086.55

The ONGC is good above 1109-1112 level and weak below 1093 level. The ONGC high at 1129.70 and the low at 1052.65 but it did not trade below 1093 level.

The ICICI bank good above 726-24 level for further appreciation. The support can be expected at 696-93 level. The ICICI bank high at 717.90 and the low at 700.0
The DLF is good above 525 level, The DLF high at 509 and the low at 499.25
The JP is good above 176 level. The JP high at 174 and the low at 169.15
....(The fact is that almost all stocks are in consolidation mode above their support levels and close to the resistance levels. So they are in trading range with negative to positive bias rather than pure negative view.


The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The roller coaster….

The Asian markets are trading lower with more than 2 percent cut. The Hang seng down by 475 points, the Nikkei is down by 198 points, shows that the euphoria short lived for a day. The SGX Nifty is trading lower by 56 points at 4445 level. The opening will be influenced by the rest of the world but the closing is very important to see the strength in our markets to claim that the N-deal and emerging blue chip market.
There are more positive news that needs attention apart from the N-deal euphoria. The 3G auction process, The DII’s can increase their holdings in Stock exchanges up to 15%. the Maharasra govt. increasing the FSI in the prime locals close to sea shore and the courts granting the conversion of old/depilated houses in Mumbai to be converted as Flats can increase opportunities for pure housing constructions companies.

The Nifty has support first support at 4449 and at 4421-16 level which is crucial and the markets shell not get any supply of shorts at this level. If Nifty could trade above 4481-3 level is a bullish sign but the high had to be crossed the minor resistance at 4505-08 level for this day.

The Reliance has support at 2101-03 and the best support at 2088-91 level. The resistance at 2156-59 level, above 2169-71 it gains momentum to touch 2340 level in coming days and simultaneously the Nifty crosses the 4650 resistance.
The ONGC is good above 1109-1112 level and weak below 1093 level.
The ICICI bank good above 726-24 level for further appreciation. The support can be expected at 696-93 level.
The DLF is good above 525 level and the JP is good above 176 level.
The fact is that almost all stocks are in consolidation mode above their support levels and close to the resistance levels. So they are in trading range with negative to positive bias rather than pure negative view.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Monday, September 08, 2008

The BULLS need support…..

The best opening after a long gap was fizzled out due to profit booking and fresh shorts by the mighty. The markets were void of buying at higher level as the volumes speak. The good news is that the earlier resistances were easily crossed due to the NSG waiver other wise a difficult task given the market conditions. Now the challenge is to take from these levels to cross the 4650 resistance.
The MARKET pulse check by STOCKOMETER: the markets had a decent rally touch the 4558 level. They could not hold above the 4530 level for a longer period, succumbed to the selling pressure. In my last night post mentioned the condition as (…..The real challenge for Nifty is to trade above 4450-55 level to threaten the bears to cover their shorts. I think the retail investors will cover at 4450 level but the HNIs and deep pockets may wait and watch the 4523-29 level is decisively crossed).

In the morning posted ….The Bhel is having first resistance at 1771-73, so it is good if it opens & trade above that level. The next resistance was at 1830 level. It shall not trade below 1685 from where it may loose the fancy. The BHEL opened at 1846.6 and the high touched at 1899.0

The L&T is having first resistance at 2681-83, so it is good if it opens & trade above that level. The next resistance was at 2706-09 level. It shall not trade below 2525 from where it may loose the fancy. The L&T opened at 2740 and the high touched at 2888.80

The REL Infra is having first resistance at 1041-43, so it is good if it opens & trade above that level. The next resistance was at 1088-89 level. It shall not trade below 975 from where it may loose the fancy. The REL Infra opened at 1053 and the high touched at 1109.0

The NTPC is having first resistance at 177-76, so it is good if it opens & trade above that level. The next resistance was at 185 levels. It shall not trade below 168-67 from where it may loose the fancy. The NTPC opened at 189.0 and the high touched at 192.0

The Punjlloyd is having first resistance at 310-09, so it is good if it opens & trade above that level. The next resistance was at 326-29 level. It shall not trade below 293 from where it may loose the fancy. The Punj opened at 307 and the high touched at 323.85

The RIL is good above 2131 level and Resistance at 2168-69. The RIL opened at 2199 and the high touched at 2199 but the traders might have see that the RIL could not trade above 2169.0 level.

The ONGC likely to cross the resistance at 1109-14. The ONGC opened at 1080 and the high touched at 1124.60

The ICICI bank is good above 696 and will rally above 701-03 level. The ICICI opened at 721.05 and the high touched at 750.0

The SBI is good above 1521 level and rally 1550 level. The SBI opened at 1560 and the high touched at 1610.0

The Relcap has resistance at 1376-79 level above that it will rally to 1400 range. The Relcap opened at 1380 and the high touched at 1418.70. In my previous posts I mentioned …. (…The Relcap is struggling to cross the resistance at 1420-40 range which may live for some more time. It is good above 1380 level but weak below 1349 level).


The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The N-deal affect…

The markets are likely to show their reactions over the N-deal and the companies directly benefit will act the most. The best from the markets can be expected to the following scrips.

The Bhel is having first resistance at 1771-73, so it is good if it opens & trade above that level. The next resistance was at 1830 level. It shall not trade below 1685 from where it may loose the fancy.
The L&T is having first resistance at 2681-83, so it is good if it opens & trade above that level. The next resistance was at 2706-09 level. It shall not trade below 2525 from where it may loose the fancy.
The REL Infra is having first resistance at 1041-43, so it is good if it opens & trade above that level. The next resistance was at 1088-89 level. It shall not trade below 975 from where it may loose the fancy.
The NTPC is having first resistance at 177-76, so it is good if it opens & trade above that level. The next resistance was at 185 levels. It shall not trade below 168-67 from where it may loose the fancy.
The Punjlloyd is having first resistance at 310-09, so it is good if it opens & trade above that level. The next resistance was at 326-29 level. It shall not trade below 293 from where it may loose the fancy.
The Tata power & R-power are the front runners to start private nuclear power generation may find buying support.

The Asian markets are in jubilant mood to recover the last week losses. The Hang Seng is adding 768 points and the Nikkei with 435 points. The SGX is now at 4555 with 190 positive points.

The RIL is good above 2131 level and Resistance at 2168-69. The ONGC likely to cross the resistance at 1109-14.
The ICICI bank is good above 696 and will rally above 701-03 level.
The SBI is good above 1521 level and rally 1550 level.
The Relcap has resistance at 1376-79 level above that it will rally to 1400 range.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Sunday, September 07, 2008

The alliances & offers .........

The market reaction to the much awaited NSG waiver has to be seen in the bourses. The companies are gearing themselves to make use of the opportunity to form alliances to access the technology and EPC expertise that is bundled not only at the national level but also in the international front.

The Bush Govt. has to sign the deal with out much discussion and delay so that the efforts made are fully rewarded. The foreign companies may come forward to form alliances with the front line infra companies in the next 6 months. The fruits of these efforts can be enjoyed only after 2010, a gestation period that is required to start new projects as the land problems are already existed and may wide spread to oppose to this inherent radio active danger involved.

The top power and infra companies can sleep on their huge investments & executable back log orders. The huge capital requirements to implement these projects, financing modalities and profitability of these works shall not be questioned at this our. The local political parties may wait and watch the actual details of the project made public but the markets may react positively.

The Nifty has good support at 4320 and even a better support at 4280 level. The Nifty shall open with a gap of 45 points above 4395-97 level and the high has to be crossed the first resistance at 4415-20 level. I think that this resistance will be crossed with out much pain unless there is huge fall in the Asian stocks.

The real challenge for Nifty is to trade above 4450-55 level to threaten the bears to cover their shorts. I think the retail investors will cover at 4450 level but the HNIs and deep pockets may wait and watch the 4523-29 level is decisively crossed.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The alliances & offers.......

The market reaction to the much awaited NSG waiver has to be seen in the bourses. The companies are gearing themselves to make use of the opportunity to form alliances to access the technology and EPC expertise that is bundled not only at the national level but also in the international front.
The Bush Govt. has to sign the deal with out much discussion and delay so that the efforts made are fully rewarded. The foreign companies may come forward to form alliances with the front line infra companies in the next 6 months. The fruits of these efforts can be enjoyed only after 2010, a gestation period that is required to start new projects as the land problems are already existed and may wide spread to oppose to this inherent radio active danger involved.
The top power and infra companies can sleep on their huge investment plans & executable back log orders. The huge capital requirements to implement these projects, financing modalities and profitability of these works shall not be questioned at this our. The local political parties may wait and watch the actual details of the project made public but the markets may react positively.


The Nifty has good support at 4320 and even a better support at 4280 level. The Nifty shall open with a gap of 45 points above 4395-97 level and the high has to be crossed the first resistance at 4415-20 level. I think that this resistance will be crossed with out much pain unless there is huge fall in the Asian stocks.


The real challenge for Nifty is to trade above 4450-55 level to threaten the bears to cover their shorts. I think the retail investors will cover at 4450 level but the HNIs and deep pockets may wait and watch the 4523-29 level is decisively crossed.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.