STOCK MARKET PREDICTIONS WENT WRONG...2012.

Almost All of Wall Street Got 2012 Market Calls Wrong

By Michael Patterson & Lu Wang - Jan 4, 2013 5:24 PM GMT+0530From John Paulson’s call for a collapse in Europe to Morgan Stanley (MS)’s warning that U.S. stocks would decline, Wall Street got little right in its prognosis for the year just ended.

Paulson, who manages $19 billion in hedge funds, said the euro would fall apart and bet against the region’s debt. Morgan Stanley predicted the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index would lose 7 percent and Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) foresaw wider swings in equity prices. All of them proved wrong last year and investors would have done better listening to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) Chief Executive Officer Lloyd C. Blankfein, who said the real risk was being too pessimistic.

The ill-timed advice shows that even the largest banks and most-successful investors failed to anticipate how government actions would influence markets. Unprecedented central bank stimulus in the U.S. and Europe sparked a 16 percent gain in the S&P 500 including dividends, led to a 23 percent drop in the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, paid investors in Greek debt 78 percent and gave Treasuries a 2.2 percent return even after Warren Buffett called bonds “dangerous.”

“They paid too much attention to the fear du jour,” Jeffrey Saut, who helps oversee about $350 billion as the chief investment strategist at Raymond James & Associates in St. Petersburg, Florida, said by phone on Jan. 2. “They were worrying about a dysfunctional government in the U.S. They were worried about the euro quake and the implosion of Greece and Portugal. Instead of looking at what’s going on around them, they were letting these macro events cause fear to creep into the equation.”

Trailing Markets

The market value of global equities increased by about $6.5 trillion last year as the MSCI All-Country World Index (MXWD)returned 17 percent including dividends. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Sovereign Plus Index of government debt returned 4.5 percent. The MSCI gauge of stocks in developed and emerging markets fell 0.2 percent to 345.89 at 9:51 a.m. in London today. While Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show Treasuries of all maturities returned an average of 2.2 percent last year, including reinvested interest, an investor who bought what was then the benchmark 10-year note -- the 2 percent security due in November 2021 -- would have gained 4.01 percent after taxes, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Blankfein Positive

Money managers who aim to beat markets lagged behind instead. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Hedge Fund Index, which tracks average performance in the $2.19 trillion industry, increased 1.6 percent last year through November. More than 65 percent of mutual funds benchmarked to the S&P 500 trailed the gauge in 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 50 stocks in the S&P 500 with the lowest analyst ratings at the end of 2011 posted an average return of 23 percent, outperforming the index by 7 percentage points, the data show. Blankfein was more prescient. “I tend to be a little more positive than what I’m hearing from other people,” the 58-year- old CEO told Bloomberg Television in an April 25 interview at Goldman Sachs’s New York headquarters. “One of the big risks that people have to contemplate is that things go right.” 

While markets moved against forecasters last year, their predictions may eventually prove correct. 

Rising Yields

Ten-year Treasury yields have climbed 0.52 percentage point from a July low to 1.91 percent, while the so-called VIX index of volatility is up 8.3 percent from last year’s nadir. Greece’s economy will contract 4 percent this year, the International Monetary Fund predicted in October, as euro membership prevents the country from boosting exports with a weaker currency.

Paulson, the founder of New York-based Paulson & Co., told clients in April he was wagering against European sovereign bonds and buying credit-default swaps on the region’s debt. The contracts insure against default and increase in value when investor perceptions of the borrower’s creditworthiness decline. Citigroup Inc. (C) economists led by Willem Buiter in London said in February the possibility Greece would leave the euro within 18 months had increased to 50 percent from between 25 to 30 percent. They raised the risk to 75 percent in May and by July were citing a 90 percent chance of departure, writing in a report that their “assumption” was an exit by Jan. 1.

Greek Rally

Greek bonds surged the most worldwide and the country stayed in the euro as the European Central Bank pledged a bigger rescue effort, German Chancellor Angela Merkel softened her stance on aid and Prime Minister Antonis Samaras delivered on austerity commitments in Athens. Money managers who bet against the conviction of European leaders to hold together the 17-nation currency union missed out on some of the best investment opportunities as the euro strengthened about 9.4 percent from a July 24 low against the dollar, Germany’s DAX Index (DAX) of shares returned 29 percent for the year and credit-default swaps on Portugal dropped 644 basis points to 449. “There really is only one ‘worst trade’ and that is the ‘euro crisis’ trade,” Michael Shaoul, the chairman and chief executive officer of Marketfield Asset Management LLC in New York, which oversees about $4.4 billion, said in a Dec. 31 e- mail.

Armel Leslie, a spokesman for Paulson & Co., declined to comment. Buiter wasn’t available to comment, Devonne Spence, a spokeswoman at Citigroup in London, said on Jan. 2.

Fed Stimulus

Adam Parker, the U.S. equity strategist at New York-based Morgan Stanley, predicted the S&P 500 would fall 7.2 percent to 1,167 last year as the U.S. presidential election, slower growth in China and Europe’s debt crisis deterred investors. Stocks rose as Federal Reserve decisions to keep benchmark interest rates at record lows while buying more than $80 billion a month of mortgages and Treasuries boosted confidence in the economy. The average forecast of 12 strategists tracked by Bloomberg called for the S&P 500 to increase about 7 percent last year to 1,344. It reached 1,426.19, surpassing the year-end prediction by the most since 2003, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Parker said he underestimated the impact of central bank stimulus and investors’ willingness to pay more for stocks. The S&P 500 is valued at 13 times estimated earnings, about 8 percent more expensive than it was a year ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Mea Culpa

“We were wrong on our year-end outlook for 2012 mostly because of our view on the multiple,” Parker wrote in a report on Oct. 22. “The specter of nearly unlimited intervention from the ECB and the Fed seems to have created a more positive asymmetry than we anticipated.” Buffett, the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) and the world’s fourth-richest person in the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, wrote in a February letter to shareholders that inflation and low yields make fixed-income securities less attractive than stocks or buying whole companies over time. While U.S. inflation of about 2 percent last year left Treasuries with almost zero real return, U.S. company bonds outpaced the increase in consumer prices with a gain of 11 percent, according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. Corporate & High Yield Index. Buffett didn’t respond to a request for comment sent to an assistant. Easing concern about a breakup of the euro helped reduce equity volatility, defying the Jan. 12 prediction by Credit Suisse’s Andrew Garthwaite that price swings would increase.

‘Significant Surprise’

The MSCI All-Country index’s 30-day historical volatility dropped to a six-year low of 6.7 on Dec. 28. The VIX, a gauge of projected market swings derived from options on the S&P 500, fell to 18.02 from 23.4 at the end of 2011, the biggest annual drop since 2009.  Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s MOVE Index, a gauge of Treasury volatility, retreated 35 percent last year. The cost of options on developed-nation currencies declined 34 percent, the biggest annual slump since at least 1993, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. “It’s a significant surprise why implied volatility in the foreign exchange market, bond market and equities market is all far, far lower than anyone expected,” Garthwaite, the London- based global equity strategist at Credit Suisse, said by phone on Jan. 2. “Ultimately, we have to put it down to central bank action.” French bonds rallied even as S&P and Moody’s Investors Service Inc. removed the country’s top credit rating. France’s sovereign debt returned 10 percent last year, more than double the rest of the global government bond market, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes.

China Optimism

The gains echoed the previous year, when investors considered the U.S. more creditworthy after S&P removed the nation’s AAA grade and drove 10-year note yields to a record low in 2012. Goldman Sachs’s call on Chinese equities proved too optimistic. Helen Zhu, the New York-based bank’s China strategist, said in a Jan. 11 interview on Bloomberg Television that the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) would probably climb 36 percent to 3,200 by year-end. Instead, the gauge of shares traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen peaked at 2,717.82 and ended the year up 7.6 percent at 2,522.95. “China’s A-share market has seen substantially more valuation de-rating relative to other markets since 2010, larger than we and many others had expected,” Zhu said in a Dec. 28 interview. “Intensifying concerns about structural risks in the economy have resulted in significant volatility in a market which tends to be more sentiment driven.”

Predicting Politics

Zhu, who’s estimating a CSI 300 index gain of about 9 percent for 2013, wasn’t the only forecaster who proved too bullish last year as government efforts to cool home prices and contain inflation limited equity returns. About 3,000 recommendations compiled by Bloomberg show analysts overestimated gains for CSI 300 shares by 33 percentage points, the second-most among 45 markets after Russia. “It’s always more challenging for investors to try and predict political actions,” Khiem Do, the head of Asian multi- asset strategy at Baring Asset Management, which oversees about $50 billion worldwide, said in a Jan. 2 phone interview from Hong Kong. “In general they’re trained to analyze the economic data, balance sheets and so on. They’re not trained to predict political decisions. These factors have ruled the lives of fund managers in a more significant manner than what used to be over the past 20 or 30 years.” To contact the reporters on this story: Michael Patterson in Hong Kong atmpatterson10@bloomberg.net; Lu Wang in New York at lwang8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Lynn Thomasson atlthomasson@bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-04/almost-all-of-wall-street-got-2012-market-calls-wrong.html

RELIANCE entities in insider trading case

Sebi names 12 RIL entities in insider trading case

Regulator, CIC were in court battle over disclosing names

BS Reporter / Mumbai Jan 04, 2013, 00:56 IST

The Securities and Exchange Board of India ( Sebi) has named Reliance Industries and 12 other related entities in the list of 149 firms and individuals whose consent applications had been rejected. In a late-evening release on Thursday, the market regulator said their consent applications, which were like out-of-court settlements to close disputes with offenders in the securities market, had been rejected, as those were not found to be in consonance with the recently introduced laws that defined the eligibility criteria for such settlements. Sebi’s disclosure of the name of the entities involved in the RIL insider trading case — the first time ever — comes ahead of a Bombay High Court hearing later this month. The regulator is fighting a case with the Central Information Commission (CIC) in the court against its order asking the market watchdog to make public the details of the RIL insider trading case.

The insider trading case against RIL and the 12 entities is that of insider trading that dates backs to 2007, when RIL had allegedly sold stock futures of Reliance Petroleum just ahead of the company’s merger with itself.

When contacted, Reliance Industries declined to comment on the issue. In its consent criteria rules, introduced in May 2012, Sebi had prohibited the use of monetary settlement in insider trading cases. Meanwhile, a PTI report on Thursday said RIL had approached the Securities Appellate Tribunal against Sebi, which had issued showcause notices to the corporate giant with regard to certain alleged irregularities in its share dealings. SAT had earlier scheduled admission of RIL’s appeal against Sebi for tomorrow but the tribunal has now adjourned the hearing to January 11. The Sebi release said the RIL-related entities were Reliance Ports & Terminals,LPG Infrastructure, Vinamra Universal Traders, Gujarat Petcoke, Relogistics (Rajasthan), Relogistics (India), Relpol Plastic Products, Darshan Sec, Fine Tech Commercials, Sharti Investment, Aarthik Commercials and Mo Tech Software.

The CIC directive was based on an appeal filed by the Bangalore-based lawyer and RTI activist Arun Agarwal. The RTI activist had sought from Sebi information on the consent order proceedings and identities of the entities involved in the alleged insider trading case. Sebi’s chief public information officer had earlier refused to share these details with Agarwal under right to information on the grounds that investigations and quasi judicial proceedings were pending.

Agarwal on Thursday said: “The better-late-than-never action of Sebi should not be allowed to be a damp squib by letting the company escape with a token penalty in adjudication proceedings.”

Besides RIL, the other firms and entities whose consent applications have been rejected include HSBC Investdirect, India Infoline, Tauranis of Tips and GMR Holdings. Sebi has also rejected the consent application of Nilesh Kapadia, a former dealer of HDFC Mutual Fund who was pulled up by the regulator for front-running. The regulator has said consent applications by Manoj H Modi, Smita Modi, Alaska Mercantile and Reliance Petroinvestments in the alleged insider trading case involving the erstwhile Indian Petrochemicals Corp have been rejected.

http://www.businessstandard.com/india/news/sebi-names-12-ril-entities-in-insider-trading-case/497694/

Fiscal Cliff Deal to Yield..Tax Benefits...

• January 2, 2013, 2:33 PM ET

Fiscal Cliff Deal to Yield Fourth Quarter Tax Benefits in Earnings

Emily Chasan 

Senior Editor

Fourth-quarter earnings reports from some companies will benefit from a full year’s worth of tax credits that were approved retroactively for 2012 as part of Congress’ last-minute deal to avoid the fiscal cliff.

Research-heavy technology and drug companies can now claim renewed tax credits for research and development, and financial firms could see reductions in their tax rates due to the extension of a credit for overseas financing activities. “It’s going to have a positive impact for sure,” said Robert Willens, an independent tax and accounting expert at Robert Willens LLC in New York.

Companies that continued research and development activities during the year are likely to book gains from a year’s worth of tax credits all at once in the fourth quarter as a result of the legislation. The research tax credit, which expired at the end of 2011, is now in effect for two more years through the end of 2013,  and is expected to cost the government $14.3 billion over ten years. “In some cases this has a pretty substantial effect, accounting for 3 or 4 percentage points off the tax rate,” Willens said, noting the extension will increase net income for many companies by reducing their provision for income taxes.

Companies including Cabot Microelectronics Corp. Forest Laboratories Inc. and L3 Communications Corp. said in regulatory filings over the past year that increases in their effective tax rates by 120 to 130 basis points were primarily due to the expiration of the research tax credit.

The  tax credit extension may be a bit of déjà vu for companies, as the credit was also allowed to lapse in 2010, and several companies adjusted fourth quarter results when it was retroactively reinstated for 2011. The credit first went into effect in 1981 and has been extended 13 times, but companies have long been wary of its impermanence. The Obama administration proposed making it permanent last year.

Financial firms may see an even bigger impact from the extension of a tax exemption for active financing income, that lets banking and financial firms avoid tax on a foreign subsidiary’s earnings if it is actively financing deals. The extension of the provision is estimated to cost $11.225 billion over ten years, and could represent as much as 10 percentage points off of corporate tax rates for some financial firms, Willens said.

The active financing provision, which had also expired at the end of 2011, is also now set to remain through the end of 2013. Companies including American Express Co.and Citigroup Inc. had cited in regulatory filings last year impacts to their tax rates from Congress’ previous failure to renew the program.

http://blogs.wsj.com/cfo/2013/01/02/fiscal-cliff-deal-to-yield-fourth-quarter-tax-benefits-in-earnings/

Mobile Net users ...Quantum jump expected...

Mobile Net users rise to 87 mn till Dec: IAMAI

 PTI

NEW DELHI, JAN 2: 

India is expected to have close to 165 million mobile internet users by March 2015, up from 87.1 million in December 2012 as more people are accessing the web through mobile devices and dongles, a report by Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI) and IMRB said today. According to the report, the number of mobile Internet users increased to 87.1 million by December 2012 from 78.7 million users in October 2012, who accessed Internet through dongles and tablet PCs.

This is expected to grow further to 92.9 million (by March 2013), 130.6 million (by March 2014) and 164.8 million by March 2015. The number of mobile Internet users in the country stood at 4.1 million in March 2009, the study said. Of the 78.7 million users in October 2012, 61 million Off-Deck users (accessing sites other than sites of the operator), 15 million On-Deck users (accessing only sites specified by the operator), the report said. “The remaining 2.7 million users accessed the internet using dongles (i.e. connected to Internet using 2G, 3G or high-speed data cards),” it added.

The report said an average monthly bill of a user who access Internet on mobile devices is Rs 460. Of this, nearly Rs 198 is spent towards Internet expenses. “This is a very healthy trend as it shows willingness of the users to spend nearly 40 per cent of the bill towards Internet access. The rest is spent on voice services,” the report said. Email, social networking services (SNS) and messengers have high usage among mobile Internet users. The report found that accessing online videos, games or reading online news is done about 2-6 times a week. While online games are accessed by nearly 50 per cent of the mobile Internet users, less than 30 per cent of users read online news and watch online videos, it added.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/info-tech/mobile-net-users-rise-to-87-mn-till-dec-iamai/article4265305.ece?homepage=true&ref=wl_home

INDIA - current account deficit worrying...

Chidambaram says current account deficit worrying, eyes gold curbs

By Manoj Kumar and Siddesh Mayenkar

NEW DELHI/MUMBAI | Wed Jan 2, 2013 6:21pm IST

(Reuters) - India's record current account deficit is "worrying," Finance Minister P. Chidambaram said on Wednesday, and hinted at cutting gold imports to bolster weak external accounts that have brought back memories of a 1991 currency crisis.

Data on Monday showed the deficit widened to 5.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the September quarter, driven by falling exports. The gap, the widest in absolute terms since 1949, has weakened the rupee currency and exposed the economy to costlier imports.

"While the CAD is indeed worrying, I think it is within our capacity to finance," Chidambaram told reporters, referring to the current account deficit. He said he was considering reining in imports of gold, used as an investment tool by Indians but which mean a drain on foreign currency reserves. "We may be left with no choice but to make it a little more expensive to import gold," Chidambaram said. He however, declined to elaborate. The government could increase the import duty on gold by 1-2 percentage points, though no decision had been taken, a senior finance ministry official told Reuters.

In 1991, the current account deficit hit 3 percent of GDP and India came within weeks of running out of foreign currency. It was forced to airlift some gold stocks to Europe to secure loans, a humiliating situation that helped bring down a government and usher in free market reforms. This time, the economy is far bigger and more open, and Chidambaram said foreign investment flows should be able to finance the deficit without drawing on hard currency reserves of $296.5 billion, enough for about seven months of imports. Even so, worries over India's external accounts, borrowing and fiscal deficit have led global ratings agencies Standard & Poors and Fitch to threaten downgrading its credit to junk.

Faced with the prospect of fighting elections in 2014 on the back of the weakest economic growth in a decade, high inflation and a possible sovereign downgrade, in September, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh - a veteran economist who oversaw the 1991 reforms - launched controversial new measures to free up the economy, including inviting investment from foreign supermarkets.

"I would like to once again underscore the crucial importance of FDI and FII," Chidambaram said, referring to foreign direct investment and foreign institutional investment.

"As I have said before, attracting foreign funds to India has become an economic imperative."

GOLD IMPORTS

Since September, the government has raised limits on how much corporate and government debt foreign investors buy, but the widening deficit has faced headwinds from expensive oil, high gold imports and a sharp drop in exports. Chidambaram said gold imports at $20.25 billion substantially contributed to the widening of the current account deficit - $38.7 billion or 4.6 percent of GDP in the first six months of the current fiscal year ending in March. "Suppose gold imports had been one half of the actual level, that would have meant our foreign exchange reserves would have increased by $10.5 billion," he said.

In the April-November period, India's total exports contracted by nearly 6 percent from a year earlier, leaving a trade deficit of nearly $130 billion. Worried by the ballooning deficit, the government in March doubled the import duty on gold to 4 percent. Gold is the biggest contributor to the import bill after crude oil and is easier to tame than energy supplies. Chidambaram said he expected gold imports to touch $40 billion in the current fiscal year to end-March, down 31 percent from the year-ago bill of $58 billion.

"As it is demand is lower and this could dent demand for gold further," said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director of Commtrendz Research in Mumbai.Recently, Reserve Bank of India executive Director Deepak Mohanty urged investors to shift from physical gold as a hedge against rising prices to financial products like inflation-linked bonds. India's gold imports rose 9 percent to 223.1 tonnes in the September quarter, after a 56 percent fall in the June quarter to 131 tonnes. Analysts predict a recovery in the December quarter due to peak festival- and wedding-season buying.

(Reporting by Manoj Kumar and Siddesh Mayenkar; Editing by Frank Jack Daniel and Robert Birsel)

Tatas to invest over Rs45,000 crore...Cyrus Mistry, New CHAIRMAN

Tatas to invest over Rs45,000 crore; expand globally: Cyrus Mistry

Published: Wednesday, Jan 2, 2013, 20:14 IST 
Place: New Delhi | Agency: PTI

Tata group will invest more than Rs45,000 crore on various businesses over next two years and would look to expand its presence in global markets besides in India, the group's new chief Cyrus P Mistry on Wednesday said.In his first message as Chairman of Tata Sons Ltd, the holding company of over $100-billion salt-to-software conglomerate, Mistry also said the 'core of the Tata group' will remain unchanged despite change in its leadership and asked the group companies to play leadership roles in their respective businesses.

Mistry, 44, has taken over as head of Tata group from Ratan Tata, who retired on December 28 after spending nearly 50 years with the group including 21 years as chairman. In a message to employees, Mistry said the group has evolved into a global conglomerate with an "incredible" size of over $100 billion under Ratan Tata's leadership.

"Handing over of the responsibility of Chairmanship brings with it the winds of change, but the core of the Tata Group must and will remain unchanged," the new chief said. "... without this core DNA that is uniquely Tata, there is nothing to differentiate us from our peers," Mistry said. Noting that the group has invested over Rs50,000 crore in the past three years across various businesses while creating over 85,000 jobs, Mistry said plans have been put in place "for additional investments in excess of Rs45,000 crore over the following two years." The group's headcount was nearly 4.56 lakh at the end of fiscal year 2011-12.

"Apart from India, we will be required to work to both deepen and widen our global engagement with an emphasis on emerging markets in Asia, Africa and parts of Latin America, adding to our existing presence in Europe and America," he said. Mistry also expressed confidence in the Indian growth story and said the government's recent emphasis on policy clarity and renewed thrust to economic reforms is encouraging.

"With a sustained focus on policy stability and implementation, I believe that India would continue to be an attractive investment destination. I look forward to our Group playing its role in continuing to invest in the Indian growth story," he said.About global expansion of the group, Mistry said each of its companies would follow a different path "with differing approaches to spreading of risk, acquisition of technology, access to talent, and investment in long-term growth markets."He also warned against any complacency, saying that history has shown that groups "that are happy with resting on their laurels are weeded out by nimble competition"."We live in increasingly competitive times. To succeed in such an environment, we will need to differentiate our approach and innovate," Mistry said.

"... across our businesses, we need to be able to respond swiftly and adapt to changes in market conditions anywhere in the globe. We must differentiate ourselves from our competitors through a greater understanding of customer needs and a culture built around customer centricity, innovation, and a focus on profitable growth. "We will need to be relentless in our pursuit of improving our competitiveness and in addressing the small issues that are often overlooked but end up making a significant difference in the value proposition of our products and services," he said.

Tata group comprises of over 100 companies in businesses including technology, communications, engineering, energy, consumer products and chemicals. It has operations in more than 80 countries across six continents.

Its total revenue stood at USD 100.09 billion (around Rs475,721 crore) in 2011-12 with 58% of this coming from businesses abroad.

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_tatas-to-invest-over-rs45000-crore-expand-globally-cyrus-mistry_1784816

most error-prone FILS in 2012...

Wed, Jan 02, 2013 at 20:50

'Men In Black III' most error-prone film in 2012

Will Smith-starrer 'Men in Black III' has topped the list of the most gaffe-ridden films of 2012 with 63 mistakes, followed by James Bond movie 'Skyfall'.

Will Smith-starrer 'Men in Black III' has topped the list of the most gaffe-ridden films of 2012 with 63 mistakes, followed by James Bond movie 'Skyfall'. Daniel Craig starrer 'Skyfall' may have joined the billion dollar club in ticket sales but it came second in the list with 35 continuity errors, according to a list compiled by the Moviemistakes.com.

The most obvious blunder in Sam Mendes directed film happens in the opening car chase scene. The jeep that Bond and a female agent are driving crashes. She knocks out the cracked windshield, but later on, the window appears perfectly in place. Two other top box office grossers 'The Amazing Spider-Man' and Christopher Nolan's Batman movie 'The Dark Knight Rises' tied up for the third spot with 24 mistakes each.

Superhero films have certainly done bad when it comes to scene blunders as 'The Avengers' is on the fifth spot with 22 erros. 'Looper' (14), 'Prometheus' (13), Ben Affleck acted-directed Argo (13), 'Underworld: Awakening' (10) and 'The Hunger Games' (10) rounded off the top-10 list of most error-prone movies in 2012. The website compiled the list following mails from fans, who pointed out most of the errors.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/entertainment/%60men-in-black-iii%60-most-error-prone-film-2012_802675.html

Nifty to rise above 6200 levels....

2 JAN, 2013, 04.39PM IST, ECONOMICTIMES.COM 

Nifty to rise above 6200 levels, buy on dips: Analysts

NEW DELHI: The 50-share Nifty index broke out of its 50-point trading range on Wednesday observed in the month of December, backed by positive global cues from the United States.

The 'fiscal cliff' crisis was averted in the US after the House of Representatives approved a Senate bill that raised tax for the rich and delayed spending cuts. "The markets managed to break past the psychological levels of 6000 in the first few days of the new year, clearly indicating the strong bullish undertone in the market," said Kunal Saraogi, CEO at Equityrush.com. "We expect the Nifty to build upon the momentum and head for 6150 levels over the next few sessions. What keeps the market going is a drop in bond yields below 8% and a scramble to cover shorts that traders still hold on to," he added. Saraogi is of the view that the bullishness in all likelihood is here to stay. With the 'fiscal cliff' problem out of the way at least for time being, most analysts are positive on the Indian markets and expect it to scale new highs on the back of further reforms, budget, earnings and monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) which are some of the near-term triggers. Since the 50-share Nifty index has already rallied 1.5 per cent in the past two trading sessions, analysts are advising investors to maintain their long positions and buy on dips in case the market witnesses profit booking. Analysts are pinning hopes of levels above 6150-6200 at least for the Nifty over the next few sessions backed by strong momentum. They feel that valuations are not expensive and there is room for some more appreciation.

The Nifty spot has taken out resistance levels of 5965 with a rising gap indicating strength. The index has been in an uptrend since last year and is likely to continue so. "Higher tops higher bottoms formation is visible on daily charts and the momentum indicators have turned positive. Long positions taken should be hold on and continue to ride it to the levels of 6200 which is the intermediate possible target," said Sujit Deodhar, Head-Technical Analyst at Wellworth Share & Stock Broking. "Traders can apply buy on dips strategy to the levels of 5900 and stop loss to be placed at 5850 levels on Nifty spot. Above 6200 one can expect retesting of previous life time highs," added Deodhar. Market expert Ambareesh Baliga is of the view that it is possible for the markets to see new highs in the month of January. "I see the market actually crossing 6300-6350 levels. We will not be surprised if see levels closer to 6700-6800 before the budget," added Balinga.

(The views and recommendations expressed in this section are the analysts' own and do not represent those of EconomicTimes.com)

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/analysis/nifty-to-rise-above-6200-levels-buy-on-dips-analysts/articleshow/17857223.cms

The richest people on the planet got even richer in 2012....

Billionaires Worth $1.9 Trillion Seek Advantage in 2013

By Matthew G. Miller & Peter Newcomb - Jan 2, 2013 4:30 AM GMT+0530

The richest people on the planet got even richer in 2012, adding $241 billion to their collective net worth, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, a daily ranking of the world’s 100 wealthiest individuals.The aggregate net worth of the world’s top moguls stood at $1.9 trillion at the market close on Dec. 31, according to the index. Retail and telecommunications fortunes surged about 20 percent on average during the year. Of the 100 people who appeared on the final ranking of 2012, only 16 registered a net loss for the 12-month period.

Enlarge image

Billionaire Amancio Ortega, seen here in Monte-Carlo, Monaco on June 29, 2012, was the year’s biggest gainer among the world’s top moguls, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, a daily ranking of the world’s 100 wealthiest individuals. Photographer: Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images

“Last year was a great one for the world’s billionaires,” saidJohn Catsimatidis, the billionaire owner of Red Apple Group Inc., in an e-mail written poolside on his BlackBerry in the Bahamas. “In 2013, they will continue looking for investments around the world -- and not necessarily in U.S. -- that will give them an advantage.”

Amancio Ortega, the Spaniard who founded retailer Inditex SA, was the year’s biggest gainer. The 76-year-old tycoon’s fortune increased $22.2 billion to $57.5 billion, according to the index, as shares of Inditex, operator of the Zara clothing chain, rose 66.7 percent.

“It’s an amazing company that has done great and the gains are quite justified given its performance,” said Christodoulos Chaviaras, an analyst at Barclays Plc in London who’s had an “equalweight” rating on Inditex for about a year. “Can they repeat that? It will be harder. A lot of the positive news is already reflected in the share price.”

Market Performance

Global stocks soared in 2012. The MSCI World Index gained 13.2 percent during the year to close at 1338.50 on Dec. 31. The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index rose 13.4 percent to close at 1426.19.

European stocks surged in the second half of the year. The Stoxx Europe 600 is up 19.6 percent since June 4, advancing as the European Central Bank introduced bond-buying programs, S&P upgraded Greece’s debt and German business confidence rose more than forecast. The benchmark gauge’s 14.4 percent advance for the year was the best annual return since 2009.

Carlos Slim, the telecommunications magnate who controls Mexico’s America Movil (AMX)SAB, maintained his title as the richest person on Earth for the entire year. The 72-year-old’s net worth rose $13.4 billion -- or 21.6 percent -- through Dec. 31, making him the second-biggest gainer by dollars.

Gains by Slim’s industrial conglomerate, Grupo Carso SAB, and Grupo Financiero Inbursa, his banking and insurance operation, more than offset the decline posted by America Movil, his biggest holding. The largest mobile phone operator in the Americas by subscribers fell 5.8 percent to close at 14.9 pesos at the end of the year.

‘Wireless Penetration’

“America Movil is no longer the growth story that it has been, given the increase in Latin American wireless penetration over the last five years,” said Chris King, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in Baltimore, Maryland. “It continues to generate a very high amount of cash flow and has the best set of telecom assets across Latin America.”

According to King, one of Slim’s biggest challenges will be dealing with regulation in Mexico and Colombia designed to punish or even-out the market share between America Movil and its competitors. Of the 14 analysts who cover the stock, 71 percent have a buy rating on the company, with an average target price of 19.15 pesos per share, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Higher Taxes

U.S. software mogul Bill Gates, 57, ranks second on the list, trailing Slim by $12.5 billion. The Microsoft co-founder added $7 billion to his net worth as shares of the Redmond, Washington-based company rose 2.9 percent. Microsoft stock accounts for less than 20 percent of the billionaire’s fortune.

Warren Buffett, 82, lost his title as the world’s third- richest man to Ortega on August 6. The Berkshire Hathaway chairman gained $5.1 billion during the year, even after donating 22.3 million Berkshire Class B shares in July to charity. The billionaire, who has pledged to give away most of his fortune, spent much of the year pressing for higher taxes on the wealthy.

“On incomes of over $1 million, the excess $1 million should have a minimum tax of 30 percent. And then over $10 million, 35 percent,” Buffett said in an interview with Charlie Rose in November. “Tax law should be progressive. And I think that when people make $15 million or $20 million or $200 million and pay a 10 percent rate, something should be done about it.”

IKEA founder Ingvar Kamprad, 86, is the world’s fifth- richest person with a $42.9 billion fortune. The complex ownership structure behind IKEA, the world’s largest furniture retailer, became more transparent in August after IKEA’s franchisor published its financial performance publicly for the first time. His net worth rose 16.6 percent in 2012.

‘Delivering Results’Brazil’s Eike Batista, 56, was the year’s biggest loser by dollars, falling $10.1 billion. The commodities maven, who vowed a year ago that he’d become the world’s wealthiest man by 2015, sold a 5.63 percent stake in his EBX Group Co. in March to Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Development Co.

As part of the deal, he pledged an unspecified additional stake in 2019 if he fails to meet a 5 percent annual return on the sovereign wealth fund’s $2 billion investment, according to a person with knowledge of the deal. Batista now ranks 75th in the world with a $12.4 billion net worth. On March 27, he was worth $34.5 billion and ranked 8th on the Bloomberg index.“Next year is going to be a lot of work for Eike,” said Lucas Brendler, who helps manage about 6 billion reais at Banco Geracao Futuro de Investimentos in Porto Alegre, Brazil. “It’s going to be a year for him to recover investors’ confidence, and to leave the realm of theory and start delivering results. The EBX companies have great growth potential.”

Hidden Billionaires Batista’s former title as the richest Brazilian is now held by 73-year-old banker Jorge Paulo Lemann, who ranks 37th on the index with an $18.8 billion fortune. The country’s second- richest person is Dirce Camargo, the matriarch behind Camargo Correa SA, the Sao Paulo-based conglomerate that has interests in cement, electricity and Havaianas flip-flops. Her net worth is $13.4 billion, according to the Bloomberg ranking. Camargo, who doesn’t appear on any other major international wealth ranking, is one of 54 billionaires the index uncovered during the year. Among the others: Hamdi Ulukaya, the 40-year-old Turkish immigrant owner of Chobani, the best-selling yogurt brand in the U.S.; South Africa’s Nathan “Natie” Kirsh, 80, who amassed a $5.4 billion fortune in retail and real estate; and Elaine Marshall, 70, whose 14.6 percent ownership of closely held Koch Industries makes her the fourth-richest woman in America. She is worth $14.1 billion.

Buying Lanai

Koch Industries’ two other shareholders, the brothers Charles and David Koch, are each worth $40.9 billion, up 20.9 percent -- $7.1 billion -- for the year.

Oracle Corp. (ORCL) founder Larry Ellison rose $6.4 billion in 2012 as shares of the world’s largest database company jumped 31.7 percent. Ellison, 68, who has more than tripled the amount of Oracle stock he has pledged against lines of credit in the last year, agreed to buy 98 percent of Hawaii’s Lanai island. The 141-square-mile (365-square-kilometers) parcel with no traffic lights was purchased from billionaire David Murdock, the 89-year-old chairman of Dole Food Co., the world’s largest producer of fresh fruit and vegetables.

The bulk of Ellison’s fortune comes from his 23.5 percent stake in Oracle. He also has interests in software makers NetSuite Inc. (N) and LeapFrog Enterprises Inc. (LF), as well as property holdings, including estates in California and Newport, Rhode Island.

Champagne, Handbags

“Oracle continues to innovate,” said Yun Kim, an analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott in New York. “They’re well positioned in the near-term with their core database offerings, their engineering systems, and cloud computing.”

Kim has a buy rating on the stock with a target price of $43 per share. Of the 43 analysts who cover Oracle, 29 have a buy rating and 14 have holds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Bernard Arnault, France’s richest man, gained $8.1 billion as shares of LVMH (MC) Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA and its publicly traded holding company Christian Dior SA soared.

In May, the LVMH chairman’s net worth was lowered $15 billion on the index because of the way his ownership stake in the world’s largest luxury-goods company is structured. The 63- year-old controls 46.5 percent of LVMH’s share capital, according to the 2011 annual report of the Paris-based maker of Louis Vuitton handbags and Moet & Chandon champagne. That figure includes 5.6 percent of LVMH shares held by Arnault, and a 40.9 percent stake of the company owned by Christian Dior.

Retails Roars

Arnault, who is applying for Belgian citizenship for “personal” reasons, owns 70.4 percent of Christian Dior, according to French regulatory filings. The remaining 29.6 percent of Dior is held by outside investors. While he controls all the voting power of Dior’s stake in LVMH, his economic interest is less than the figure reported in the LVMH annual report. His net worth is valued at $28.8 billion.

Retail fortunes rose 19.5 percent on average, while non- retail fortunes increased 11.5 percent.Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) chief executive Jeff Bezos, 48, added $6.9 billion to his net worth as shares of the world’s largest online retailer rose 45 percent. The four heirs to the Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) fortune -- Jim Walton, Christy Walton, Alice Walton and Rob Walton -- gained a combined $13.5 billion. Stefan Persson, the chairman of Swedish clothing retailer Hennes & Mauritz AB, added $2.7 billion.

Macau Winnings

Sheldon Adelson, gambling’s richest man, gained $2.8 billion. The 79-year-old chairman of Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS), which operates casinos in Macau, Singapore and the U.S., received $1.2 billion in December when the company paid a special dividend of $2.75 per share. More than half of the company’s revenue comes from Macau.

Lui Che Woo, the founder of Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd., was the biggest winner on the index by percentage gain. His fortune more than doubled to $11.9 billion. The company plans to invest as much as HK$50 billion ($6.5 billion) to expand a Macau resort as the casino operator seeks to draw more Chinese tourists in the world’s largest gambling hub.

Asia’s richest man, Li Ka-Shing, rose $6.4 billion. The 84- year-old chairman of Hong Kong property developer Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd. ranks 11th on the list with a net worth of $28.6 billion.

China’s Richest

Zong Qinghou, head of China’s third-largest beverage maker, became the country’s richest man in September after disclosing his stake in closely held Hangzhou Wahaha Group Co. was more than double previous estimates.

The 67-year-old soda and juice tycoon owns more than 80 percent of Wahaha, the company’s spokesman Shan Qining said. Zong’s net worth is $15.8 billion, according to the Bloomberg ranking. He is $8.4 billion wealthier than Robin Li, founder of Baidu Inc. (BIDU), China’s biggest search engine operator.

Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg lost $5.2 billion during the year after the company’s shares fell 30 percent following its May initial public offering. Investors sued Facebook, the operator of the world’s largest social network, after its stock dropped in the wake of what was the largest technology IPO in history. The investors claim the Menlo Park, California-based company failed to disclose discussions it had with underwriters’ analysts about advertising revenue.

‘Concierge Services’

In December, the 28-year-old donated almost $500 million in Facebook stock to the Silicon Valley Community Foundation. The gift to the nonprofit group, which had $2 billion in assets in 2011, is to “lay a foundation for new projects,” Zuckerberg said in a statement posted on his Facebook page.

The executive and his wife, Priscilla, signed a pledge two years ago committing the majority of their wealth to charity. He is worth $12.3 billion.

“In 2012, high net worth people focused on the things they could control: lifestyle and concierge services, managing their art collections and family security,” said Armand Del Medico, a wealth adviser for UBS Financial Services, in an e-mail. “Looking forward, there is more of an appetite to look at opportunities outside of traditional investments and increased global exposure.”

The Bloomberg Billionaires Index takes measure of the world’s wealthiest people based on market and economic changes and Bloomberg News reporting. Each net worth figure is updated every business day at 5:30 p.m. in New York. The valuations are listed in U.S. dollars.

To contact the reporters on this story: Matthew G. Miller in New York atmmiller144@bloomberg.net; Peter Newcomb in New York at pnewcomb2@bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-01/billionaires-worth-1-9-trillion-seek-advantage-in-2013.html