Gloomy 2013 ??--European Central Bank

ECB sees gloomy 2013, but holds rates

By Mark Thompson @CNNMoney December 6, 2012: 10:24 AM ET

LONDON (CNNMoney)

ECB President Mario Draghi said there was a "wide discussion" on rates

The European Central Bank slashed its growth and inflation forecasts for 2013, raising the prospect of a further easing in monetary policy next year, after it kept interest rates on hold Thursday. The ECB is now forecasting eurozone gross domestic product ranging from growth of 0.3% to a decline of 0.9% next year. That compares with a September forecast of between 1.4% growth and 0.4% contraction, and the OECD's latest projection of a decline of 0.1%. "Over the shorter term, weak activity is expected to extend into next year, reflecting the adverse impact on domestic expenditure of weak consumer and investor sentiment and subdued foreign demand," ECB President Mario Draghi said at a news conference. The eurozone fell back into recession in the third quarter, and many private forecasters expect the region's economy to contract further in 2013. Inflation was forecast to fall to between 1.1% and 2.1% next year, from 2.5% in 2012, and to between 0.6% and 2.2% in 2014, the ECB said. Draghi said the ECB continued to see downside risks to the economic outlook stemming from the eurozone debt crisis and the U.S. fiscal cliff debate, but had not changed its view on the medium-term risks to inflation.

"Risks to the outlook for price developments are seen as broadly balanced, with downside risks stemming from weaker economic activity and upside risks relating to higher administered prices and indirect taxes, as well as higher oil prices," he said. The midpoint of the inflation forecast for 2014 is 1.4%, lower than some economists were expecting. The ECB's medium-term target is to keep inflation below, but close to, 2%.

In a note published before the ECB meeting, foreign-exchange strategists at Citi said an inflation forecast of 1.5% may signal "that more rate cuts could come before long".The euro weakened against the dollar, trading down 0.3% at $1.30.Defending the bank's decision not to relax policy further now, Draghi pointed to conflicting signals on the eurozone economy and the unchanged assessment of inflation risks.Asked whether a rate cut had been discussed Thursday, he said: "There was a wide discussion but in the end the prevailing consensus was to leave rates unchanged." Recent surveys have pointed to a slight pick-up, from very low levels, in manufacturing and trade sentiment. But the services sector remains depressed and unemploymentcontinues to rise, hitting a new peak of 11.7% in October.The Bank of England also held interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and maintained the volume of its quantitative easing program at £375 billion, in line with market expectations. The outlook for the U.K. economy has weakened in recent weeks, but economists do not expect the bank to ease policy further in the near term, as inflation remains way above its target of 2%. 

http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/06/news/economy/ecb-rates/index.html?iid=HP_Highlight

Germany may fall into recession in 2013--BAD NEWS BUILDING...

Germany may fall into recession in 2013By Mark Thompson @CNNMoney December 7, 2012: 8:05 AM ETLONDON (CNNMoney)
Germany's central bank said the country may slip into recession early next year, confirming Europe's biggest economy has lost much of its immunity to the economic gloom pervading the region.
"The cyclical outlook for the German economy has dimmed," said the Bundesbank in a statement. "There are even indications that economic activity may fall in the final quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013." The Bundesbank is now predicting growth of just 0.4% next year, down from a June forecast of 1.6%. It blamed the impact of deep recessions in other eurozone countries engaged in biting austerity programs, and the slowing global economy.
The European Central Bank published new forecasts Thursday which suggested that the eurozone economy as a whole will likely contract further in 2013, after falling back into its second recession since 2009 during the third quarter of this year. Until recently, Germany was able to ride out the region's economic woes on the back of strong exports to the United States and Asia.But signs of slacker global growth and uncertainty created by the eurozone credit crisis have prompted companies in Germany to invest less and postpone or cancel planned projects. Unemployment has also been rising, and the Bundesbank now expects the jobless rate to hit 7.2% in 2013, up from 6.8% this year. German industrial production fell 2.6% in October , the statistics office said Friday, compared with a decline of 1.3% in September. Still, the Bundesbank believes the world's fourth-biggest economy could rebound quickly -- generating growth of 1.9% in 2014 -- provided eurozone policymakers push ahead with reforms and the global economy regains momentum.Governments in countries such as Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece are engaged in multi-year austerity programs aimed at putting their national finances on sustainable footing. Portugal said Friday that it's economy shrank by 3.5% in the third quarter, compared with 3.1% in the second.And EU finance ministers are grappling with plans to launch a banking union, seen as critical to efforts to draw a line under the crisis and a key test of the willingness of eurozone countries to push forward with deeper integration of the currency area. "The sound underlying health of the German economy suggests it will overcome the temporary lull without major damage to employment, in particular," Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said.The respected Ifo business climate index for November saw its first month-over-month gain since March, suggesting companies in manufacturing and trade were more satisfied with their current situation and slightly less pessimistic about the future.But Ifo's own data, and other surveys, show the country's service sector remains depressed. Markit's purchasing managers' index for November registered the sharpest fall in German services activity since June 2009.
http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/07/news/economy/germany-recession-warning/index.html?iid=HP_LN

Worst over for India - EXPERTS SAY!!!!

8 DEC, 2012, 01.24PM IST, ECONOMICTIMES.COM 

Worst over for India, fears of exit from BRICS overdone: BofA-ML

NEW DELHI: Expressing growing confidence in theIndian economy, Bank of America Merrill Lunch on Friday said that the 'worst' is over for India. The bank is positive even though it expects the third quarter growth for the current financial year to hit a low of 5%. While the third quarter growth will be hit by poor kharif crop, the first half of 2013 may witness a GDP rate of 6%. The process of economic recovery will however be slow, the bank opined. BofA-ML expects the Reserve Bank of India to cutinterest rates by 125 bps in 2013 as the central bankBSE 1.13 % increasingly shifts focus to reviving growth. The rate cut will in turn infuse positive sentiments in the markets and aide economic growth as funds will become relatively cheaper for India Inc.
It expects RBI to cut CRR by 25 bps again on December 18 to pull down lending rates. "Subbarao will likely defer policy rate cuts to January as inflation is set to peak off only in the March quarter, added the report.The bank is skeptical of any recovery in investment until the global economic cycle turns around and the summer 2014 general elections are over. While reforms will boost sentiment right now, their real impact will only be felt in the medium term.
India will continue to remain the second fastest growing BRIC after China, the report added. The bank feels that 'lamentations' about India being knocked off from BRICsare overdone. However, it will not be until FY15 that growth will return to the estimated potential level of 7.5%, the report stated.In case of the US economy going over the 'fiscal cliff', India's FY14 growth will slow down to 5.1%, the report said. This will happen owing to the contagion effect that US recession will have.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/worst-over-for-india-fears-of-exit-from-brics-overdone-bofa-ml/articleshow/17530320.cms

STAR-AVANI in STARBUCKS TATA GLOBAL JV....

7 DEC, 2012, 04.58AM IST, KALA VIJAYRAGHAVAN,ET BUREAU 

Avani Saglani Davda: Why Tata Sons director thinks a young TAS product is perfect to lead the JV with Starbucks

MUMBAI: Four years ago, RK Krishna Kumar ferreted out a spunky woman in her late 20s in the sales & marketing team of Indian Hotels, the Tata groupcompany that owns the Taj hospitality brand.The chairman of Tata Global BeveragesBSE 2.56 %who is also a director on the board of the group's holding company, Tata Sons, was on the look out for an executive assistant.Avani Saglani Davda, who reported to Indian Hotels' chief of sales & marketing Deepa Mishra Harris, and had risen to general manager after a five-year stint, caught Kumar's eye for two reasons: she seemed ready to handle a project; and for a leadership role.By 2008, Avani was working out of Bombay House, under Krishna Kumar's wing. "He mentored her to eventually catapult her into a challenging role. She was forever taking notes and part of almost every critical meeting handled by him," says a person who has observed her growth from close quarters. Avani declined to participate when contacted to contribute to this profile.The opportunity to display her leadership skills and handle an ambitious project came when the Tatas looked to Starbucks for a partnership in 2011. Whilst Krishna Kumar kept an eagle eye on the developments, it was Davda who worked on it from scratch, travelling to Starbucks' headquarters in Seattle, and meeting, amongst other honchos, CEO HowardBSE -3.85 %Schultz. "She had this steely determination in her approach to completing projects and was aggressive," said a person close to the project on condition of anonymity. Another person who has worked in the Tata Global headquarters points out that he was impressed by her commitment to the task at hand, challenges on the home front notwithstanding."She had a 10-month-old baby when she signed up for the job as EA to Krishna Kumar. And anybody who has worked with KK knows that the he keeps late hours at work. And here she was at 9 at night, unruffled and completing her task.
It was amazing to see her commitment at that stage when usually young mothers tend to get panicky about their babies, "said the official. Today, Davda, 33, has been given charge of the high-profile equal stakes Tata Starbucks joint venture in India, creating a buzz - and some surprise -- among company watchers. Not only is the low-profile Davda the youngest CEO in the Tata system she is one of the few backroom strategists -- who was never in any direct functional role - to be heading a business. Avani, who has worked for the Tata companies for more than 10 years, joined the Tata group as a TAS (Tata Administrative Service) probationer in 2002. After rising from brand manager to GM and in that time focused on buffing up the Taj brand, Avani worked closely with Krishna Kumar, overseeing the Tata group's hospitality, beverages and real estate businesses.
One major initiative Avani was neck-deep into was the makeover of Tata Global (formerly Tata Tea) from just a tea company into a food & beverages marketer. Then came the coffeehouse blueprint, a project in which colleagues expected Avani to play a critical role in the senior management team of the JV, possibly in a marketing role; her appointment as CEO came as a bolt from the blue.What would have tipped the scales in Avani's favour - in addition to her project execution skills - is the belief of Krishna Kumar (a TAS officer himself) of mentoring TAS products and providing them with leadership opportunities.
To be sure, Avani isn't the first mentoree to come out of Krishna Kumar's corner room. The Tata Global chief had also played guru to Abanti Sankaranarayanan who joined Diageo India in 2010 as marketing director, rose to deputy managing director earlier this year, and to managing director by July.Before Diageo, Sankaranarayanan was executive director & deputy chief executive officer at Mount Everest Mineral WaterBSE -1.37 %, a bottled water company that Tata Global had picked up a stake in five years ago and subsequently control with a majority holding.In a press statement announcing the JV between Tata Global and Starbucks Krishna Kumar had dubbed her "the perfect leader for Tata Starbucks... Working closely with Avani for many years now, I am confident she will bring the local business acumen, customer focus and commitment to delivering the highest quality Starbucks experience to our customers in India."The JV had initially announced a roll-out plan for 30 stores by the end of the current calendar year and an initial investment of Rs 200 crore from each partner.The venture currently has three stores open in India (all in Mumbai) and has subsequently revised expansion plans to 100 stores over next two years. Scaling up won't happen in a hurry. A November 2012 Morgan Stanley research report says: "In a bluesky scenario and assuming that Starbucks is notably successful in India with 900 stores by 2020 and has an average unit value per annum of $0.9 million, in line with the current China Asia-Pac Starbucks owned average, the JV would only contribute 14% of consolidated revenues and less than 20% of profits."Given the challenge ahead, is the relative greenhorn Avani the right person for the job? Says Harminder Sahni, managing director, Technopak Advisors: "It doesn't matter if the person heading such JVs is an Indian or an expat. After waiting for over eight years to enter India, it is unlikely that their plans will be anything but aggressive." http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-company/corporate-trends/avani-saglani-davda-why-tata-sons-director-thinks-a-young-tas-product-is-perfect-to-lead-the-jv-with-starbucks/articleshow/17514392.cms

WORLD RANKING..Nations fraud COMPETITION-

Nations where companies are affected by fraud

This is a list of countries where companies are most affected by fraud, according to the Global Fraud Report released by Kroll Advisory Solutions. The report states the Economist Intelligence Unit Survey Results which shows that battle against information theft remains a leading focus and the biggest threat comes from within.

Africa

Africa tops the list with the largest fraud problem despite improving in the environment. The country saw a decline in overall fraud prevalence from 85% last year to 77% in 2011-12.

Companies affected by fraud: 77%, Information theft, loss or attack: 34%

Theft of physical assets or stock: 32%, Internal financial fraud or theft: 30%

Management conflict of interest: 25%,Corruption and bribery: 20%

Increase in exposure to fraud: 73%, (Photo: Getty

India remains a challenging fraud environment and has the highest number of companies affected by fraud outside Africa.

Companies affected by fraud: 68%,Information theft, loss or attack: 23%

Theft of physical assets or stock: 27%,Internal financial fraud or theft: 22%

Vendor, supplier or procurement fraud: 20%,Corruption and bribery: 20%

Increase in exposure to fraud: 67%,(Photo: Getty Images)

China

Although China’s fraud environment has improved in the last 12 months; the data suggests that a worry complacency may be developing in the country.

Companies affected by fraud: 65%, Information theft, loss or attack: 21%

Theft of physical assets or stock: 27%,Internal financial fraud or theft: 33%

Increase in exposure to fraud: 69%, (Photo: Getty Images)

Indonesia

Companies in Indonesia have experienced a comparatively high overall incident of fraud. About 65% were affected last year when compared to 61% globally.

Companies affected by fraud: 65%,Information theft, loss or attack: 35%

Theft of physical assets or stock: 16%,Internal financial fraud or theft: 19%

Regulatory or compliance breach: 23%,Vendor, supplier or procurement fraud: 16%

Increase in exposure to fraud: 63%

Europe

The number of companies affected by fraud in Europe is slightly higher than the global average of 61%. Information theft and theft of physical assets are the two most common frauds in the country.

Companies affected by fraud: 63%,Information theft, loss or attack: 18%

Theft of physical assets or stock: 23%,Increase in exposure to fraud: 56%

(Photo: ThinkStock

Russia

The frauds affecting companies in Russia is identical to the global average of 61% and marks a large number of individual frauds when compared to the rest of the world.

Companies affected by fraud: 61%,Information theft, loss or attack: 26%

Theft of physical assets or stock: 26%,Corruption and bribery: 16%

Increase in exposure to fraud: 52%

(Photo: ThinkStock)

United States

The number of businesses in United States hit by at least one fraud was down when compared to the global improvement in fraud levels.

Companies affected by fraud: 60%,Information theft, loss or attack: 26%

Theft of physical assets or stock: 24%,Management conflict of interest: 16%

Increase in exposure to fraud: 66%

(Photo: Getty Images)

1.   Mexico

The fraudulent environment in Mexico has improved due to hard work as its most substantial decline was in the area of corruption and bribery.

Companies affected by fraud: 59%,Information theft, loss or attack: 26%

Theft of physical assets or stock: 19%,Vendor, supplier or procurement fraud: 19%

Corruption and bribery: 15%,Increase in exposure to fraud: 56%

(Photo: ThinkStock)

2.       Latin America

Latin American companies experienced a drop in the overall fraud figures to 56% in 2011-12 from 74% in the previous year.

Companies affected by fraud: 56%,Information theft, loss or attack: 16%

Theft of physical assets or stock: 19%,Vendor, supplier or procurement fraud: 16%

Increase in exposure to fraud: 60%

(Photo: Getty Images)

3.    Brazil

More than half of Brazilian companies were hit by fraud in the last 12 months and management conflict of interest was the most widespread problem.

Companies affected by fraud: 54%,Information theft, loss or attack: 14%

Theft of physical assets or stock: 17%,Management conflict of interest: 23%

Increase in exposure to fraud: 74%

(Photo: ThinkStock)

4.      Colombia

Companies in Colombia saw a lower than average fraud prevalence in the last year and the report states that answers in the survey indicated that this may have involved some element of luck.

Companies affected by fraud: 49%,Theft of physical assets or stock: 19%

Vendor, supplier or procurement fraud: 19%,Regulatory or compliance breach: 14%

Increase in exposure to fraud: 46%

(Photo: ThinkStock)

...more 

5.     The Gulf States

The report states that respondents from the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia saw a lower prevalence of fraud than the 61% global average.

Companies affected by fraud: 49%,Theft of physical assets or stock: 18%

Management conflict of interest: 15%

(Photo: Reuters Pictures)

Canada

Companies in Canada are in a better position when compared to other nations in terms of fraudulent environment. The report states that on an average, Canadian firms lost just 0.6% of revenues to fraudsters.

Companies affected by fraud: 47%,Theft of physical assets or stock: 24%

Management conflict of interest: 14%,Increase in exposure to fraud: 58%

(Photo: Getty Images)

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/photos/nations-where-companies-are-affected-by-fraud-1354613620-slideshow/#thumbnails-view

GLOBAL greatest entrepreneurs

12 greatest entrepreneurs of our time

Some names are obvious. Some are not. In this Forbes list, we take a look at entrepreneurs who have made a significant impact on the people and the economy.

Rank 1 | Steve Jobs

This does not come as a surprise. Steve Jobs was the co-founder of Apple, the maker of the Mac, iPhone and iPad, among other revolutionary products.

Rank 2 | Bill Gates

Gates is the co-founder and chairman of Microsoft and is consistently ranked among the world's richest people. He is also the co-chairman of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Rank 3 | Fred Smith

Smith is the founder and chief executive of FedEx, a global courier delivery service headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.

Rank 4 | Jeff Bezos

Bezos is the founder and CEO of online company Amazon.com, the largest retailer on the Internet. He was also the Time Person of the Year in 1999.

Rank 5 | Larry Page and Sergey Brin

They are the founders of search engine giant Google, a company they set up while attending Stanford University. Page is now the chief executive of the company, while Brin handles special projects.

Rank 6 | Howard Schultz

Schultz is the chairman and chief executive of Starbucks, the world's largest coffee chain, which has over 20,000 stores in 61 countries.

Rank 7 | Mark Zuckerberg

Zuckerberg is the co-founder, chairman and chief executive of social networking site Facebook. The company began trading on the Nasdaq in May this year.

Rank 8 | John Mackey

Mackey is the co-founder of Whole Foods Market, a food supermarket chain based in Texas, and also one of the most influential advocates in the movement for organic food.

Rank 9 | Herb Kelleher

Kelleher is the co-founder and former chief executive of Southwest Airlines, the largest low-cost carrier in the United States.

Rank 10 | N.R. Narayana Murthy

Murthy is one of the seven co-founders of Infosys, and served as the CEO of the company from 1981 to 2002, and then as chairman till 2011. He is now chairman-emeritus.

Rank 11 | Sam Walton

Walton was the founder of Walmart, one of the world's largest department stores. The company is the world's third largest firm by revenue, behind Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell.

Rank 12 | Muhammad Yunus

Yunus is the founder of Grameen Bank and a Nobel Peace Prize winner. The concepts of microfinance and microcredit, which are now shaping lives in over 100 countries, are his brainchild.

http://www.ndtv.com/photos/business/12-greatest-entrepreneurs-of-our-time-14280

India set to be fastest growing......

India set to be fastest growing trading nation: HSBC

Rising bilateral trade with China, growing consumer wealth and high confidence level among its traders will push India to the top league of trading nations beginning 2013 and it is set to retain the fastest growth rate till 2020, says HSBC.

Rising bilateral trade with China, growing consumer wealth and high confidence level among its traders will push India to the top league of trading nations beginning 2013 and it is set to retain the fastest growth rate till 2020, says HSBC."The growing Indo-China bilateral trade is set to increase significantly and the country will be the fastest expanding market for Chinese products, with import growth averaging 20 per cent annually during 2013-15 and 17 percent during 2016-20, while exports clipping at 23 per cent during 2013-15 and 19 percent during 2016-20," says the HSBC trade forecast released today. India tops the tables for all 23 markets surveyed as either their fastest import or export growth partner out to 2020, it said.The country also tops the HSBC trade confidence index apart from having the most promising global outlook with 61 per cent of traders expecting to see growth."With a score of 135, India is the most confident country.Optimism has improved in the past six months with 71 percent of importers and exporters surveyed expecting trade volume to increase and another 24 per cent anticipating business to remain at current levels," said the report that covered 5,800 exporters, importers and traders over the past six months in 23 markets.This upside to trade will be backed by the growing consumer wealth that will push the country to be the fastest growing trade market - import or export or both - among the 23 largest trading markets, according to the forecast.The optimism comes from a dual speed trade rebound as South-South corridors become more established, driving growth to 2015 before being rejoined by the developed world in the later part of the decade, notes the report.As per the report, India and China will be joined by emerging trading nations like Vietnam, Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey, Mexico and Poland to record significant trade growth in the next three years.South-South trade continues to show up as a trend.Brazil's fastest growing trade partners are India, Vietnam and China and Mexico's imports from India and China will grow 13.9 percent and 13.4 percent respectively between 2016 and 2020, the HSBC report said.Indonesian exports, led by commodities, to Asia (ex- Japan) are expected to grow at around 10 percent annually during 2021-30, with shipments to India and China leading the growth during 2013-15.

Singapore's exports to Asia (ex-Japan) are forecast to rise by 7 per cent on average during 2021-30, again led by China, India and Vietnam. Bangladesh is forecast to develop its role linking the new emerging Asia, driven by trade growth with India throughout the period. Its trade is expected to jump 19 percent during 2013-15 and 14 percent during 2016-20, the report said. Another major trading power will be Malaysia, which is set to see 9 per cent spike in its exports to Latin America during 2016-20, with its exports to Brazil alone growing at 14 percent annually during this period.Vietnamese exports are expected to clip at double-digits annually throughout the forecast period of 2012-30.The report said China will overtake the US as Vietnam's largest export partner by 2030 but the US, followed by Japan and Korea.Australia's dependence on Asian markets for commodities shipments will continue during this period, recording an annual growth of (ex-Japan) 6 percent during 2013-15.Hong Kong's exports are forecast to more than double from 4.8 per cent in 2012 to 11.4 percent annually through 2013-15. Although China will remain Hong Kong's most important trading partner, other developing East Asian nations will become increasingly important, with exports to Vietnam growing 8 percent in the decade to 2030.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/india-set-to-be-fastest-growing-trading-nation-hsbc_790689-1.html

GDP growth falters - a concern to be addressed...!!

GDP growth falters again, headed for decade-low

Economy grows 5.3% in second quarter FM blames it on kharif crop impact

BS Reporter / New Delhi Dec 01, 2012, 00:40 IST The economy grew 5.3 per cent in the second quarter (July-September) of this financial year compared with the year-ago period, keeping it on track for its worst year in a decade.Official data released on Friday showed the GDP growth was even below the 5.5 per cent posted for the three months ending in June but equal to that in the quarter ending March. The government’s worry was evident from the statement of C Rangarajan, chairman of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council. Rangarajan on Friday scaled down his earlier forecast and said the full-year growth would be between 5.5 and 6 per cent. Growth was dragged down by subdued manufacturing output growth of 0.8 per cent and agricultural output of 1.2 per cent.(KEY SECTORS A DRAG ON ECONOMY) Terming the GDP growth as below his expectations, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said the reduction in growth in agriculture and allied sectors had been on account of rainfall being lower than normal, particularly in June-July. Poor kharif crop had pulled down the growth rate.The economy would have to grow by over 6.5 per cent in the second half to end the year at six per cent growth, economists said. “That seems a tall order. We are headed for a 10-year low GDP growth this year,” one economist said.Reaction to the GDP numbers was muted from financial markets, which were still cheering the end of a deadlock in Parliament and expectations of a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of India — a possibility that was ruled out by most economists, as inflation at more than seven per cent is above the regulator’s comfort zone.A positive sign was a pick-up in the fixed investment rate — 4.06 per cent in Q2, against 0.66 per cent in Q1. Gross fixed capital formation grew 4.06 per cent this quarter, as against 0.65 per cent in the first quarter. However, this could be attributed to the low base of last year, when growth in gross fixed capital formation slowed to 5.5 per cent in Q2 from 14.66 per cent in Q1.The low base of 6.7 per cent in Q2 of 2011-12 could not lift GDP growth in July-September, suggesting sluggish economic activity, economists said.Electricity generation slowed to an eight-quarter-low of 3.5 per cent. Mining showed growth of 1.9 per cent in the second quarter against 0.1 per cent in Q1 of 2012-13. Construction grew 6.7 per cent against 10.9 per cent in the previous quarter and 6.3 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2011-12. Financing, insurance, real estate and business services expanded 9.4 per cent against 10.8 per cent in Q1 and 9.9 per cent in Q2 of 2012-13.The government’s final consumption expenditure expanded 4.06 per cent in Q2 against 5.02 per cent in Q1. This led to the fiscal deficit touching 7.36 per cent of GDP in the first half of 2012-13. http://www.businessstandard.com/india/news/gdp-growth-falters-again-headed-for-decade-low-/494222/

BEST INVESTMENTS IN THE WORLD

World's 5 hottest stock markets

Small emerging markets like Nigeria and Egypt have delivered stellar stock market performances this year.

A number of stock markets around the world have delivered solid performances this year, but if you look at the standouts, there's a common thread: they're all small emerging markets."The best performing markets been those that are least affected by outside events," said Bill Rocco, senior fund analyst at Morningstar. "And they've enjoyed good local economic and political news."For example, Turkey has been the bright spot in Europe, which continues to suffer from its almost three-year-old debt crisis, while Egypt is still recovering from the Arab Spring.While most of the top-performing markets are still small when it comes to liquidity and volume, they're starting to gain positive attention from investors, fund managers and rating agencies.Click through to see which five stock markets have returned the best gains so far this year and why.

5. Nigeria

YTD gain: 31%

Africa's second-largest economy has continued to grow at a rapid pace this year, with economic growth clocking in upwards of 6% each quarter in 2012.The market got its most recent lift after Standard and Poor's and Moody's lifted Nigeria's credit rating, bringing it in line with Fitch's to three notches below investment grade, citing improved financial stability and the country's commitment to reforming the banking and electricity sectors.In fact, Nigeria's banks have been among the best performers on the country's stock exchange. First Bank of Nigeria is up a whopping 70%, while Zenith Bank and Guaranty Trust Bank have both gained about 40% this year.

Nigeria is also starting to attract more attention from foreign investors, which analysts expect will only grow with the country's recent entry into Barclays' and JPMorgan's benchmark emerging markets bond indices."These events should spur additional capital flows into Nigeria, said Larry Seruma, managing principal at Nile Capital Management. Seruma manages the Nile Pan Africa Fund (NAFAX), the only U.S. mutual fund to focus exclusively on the continent of Africa. Nigeria accounts for about 40% of the fund.

NEXT: 4. Pakistan

YTD gain: 33%

Karachi's benchmark index has soared to historic highs this year on healthy volume, largely due to the State Bank of Pakistan's easing monetary policy.Through a series of moves, Pakistan's central bank has been able to cut its key interest rate to 10% from 12% at the start of the year, thanks to lower-than-expected inflation figures, said Naveed Vakil, director of research at AKD Securities.

As inflation keeps trending lower, analysts expect that Pakistan's central bank will continue cutting rates and eventually push its benchmark interest rate into the single digits. And that should help spur further gains in the country's stock market.A jump in consumer spending has also been a big driver of the stock market rally, said Vakil.Rural income has grown significantly thanks to larger remittances and stable prices for so-called soft commodities, such as cotton. In fact, overseas Pakistani workers sent home a record $1.4 billion in remittances last month, up more than 30% from a year earlier.The rise in spending has particularly helped companies like Bestway Cement, which benefits from a rise in homebuilding, and Engro Foods Limited, which gets a lift as people spend more money on food.

NEXT: 3. Turkey

YTD gain: 43%

Turkey and Greece may share borders, but their economies couldn't be further apart. While most counties in Europe have been roiled by the region's ongoing debt crisis, Turkey has remained a relative bright spot.Although Turkey's economic growth has slowed, it has avoided recession like some of its neighbors, thanks to strong exports. And GDP growth is forecast to pick up over the next couple of years. Plus, unemployment is at an 11-year low.Earlier this month, Fitch Ratings lifted Turkey's credit rating to investment grade for the first time in two decades, which sent the Istanbul stock exchange to record highs.Moody's, however, maintained its junk rating on Turkey in its most recent assessment, noting that while Turkey's financial strength has improved, it still faces short-term financing risks, and the government's efforts to address Turkey's economic imbalances will take time to take effect.

NEXT: 2. Egypt

YTD gain: 55%

Egypt's stock market has come roaring back this year, after tumbling more than 50% in 2011 amid political tension in the aftermath of the Arab Spring revolution.The market got a big boost in June, following a win by the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Mursi in the country's first free presidential election.But the political situation in Egypt is still murky. It remains to be seen whether Egypt's new government will choose to implement Sharia law, the Islamic legal and moral code, and what kind of role it will take in Middle East conflicts, said Larry Seruma, managing principal at Nile Capital Management."The key overhang in Egypt is that its political situation continues to be one marked by uncertainty, and that makes investors nervous about how much to invest there," he added.

NEXT: 1. Venezuela

YTD gain: 219%

The Caracas stock exchange has staged a huge rally this year, with its benchmark exchange more than tripling in value since January.The gains have largely been driven by Venezuelan banks, including BBVA Banco Provincial, whose shares have climbed more than 200%.Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez threatened to nationalize the country's banks at the start of the year, but as it appeared less and less likely that Chavez would clinch his third six-year term as president, bank stocks surged and led the broader market higher, said Asha Mehta, portfolio manager at Acadian Asset Management.

Ever since Chavez wound up getting re-elected in early October, the market has backed of its highs.Mehta considers the Venezuelan stock market to be "uninvestable" due to the government's lack of support for free enterprise. Add to that a lack of liquidity and slim number of publicly traded stocks, and limited access to local markets for foreign investors.

http://money.cnn.com/gallery/investing/2012/11/28/top-performing-stock-markets/6.html

Benjamin Graham timeless investing principles

3 timeless investing principles

Benjamin Graham has influenced generations of 

successful investors with strategies aimed first at 

preserving capital, then at making it grow.

Warren Buffett is widely considered one of the greatest investors of all time, but if you were to ask him who he thinks is the greatest investor, he would probably mention his teacher, Benjamin Graham. Graham, an investor and investing mentor, is generally considered the father of security analysis and value investing.Graham's ideas and methods of investing are well documented in his books "Security Analysis" (1934) and "The Intelligent Investor" (1949). These texts are often considered required reading for investors, but they aren't easy reads. Here we'll condense Graham's main investing principles and give you a head start on understanding his winning philosophy.

Principle No. 1: Invest with a margin of safety

Margin of safety is the principle of buying a security at a significant discount to its intrinsic value. Adhering to this principle not only provides high-return opportunities but also minimizes downside risk. In simple terms, Graham's goal was to buy a dollar's worth of assets for 50 cents. He did this very, very well.To Graham, these assets may have been valuable because of their stable earning power or because of their liquid cash value. It wasn't uncommon for Graham to invest in stocks where the liquid assets on the balance sheet (net of all debt) were worth more than the market value of the company.This means that Graham was effectively buying businesses for nothing.This concept is very important, as value investing can provide substantial profits once the market re-evaluates the stock and ups its price to fair value. It also provides protection on the downside if things don't work out as planned and the business falters. The safety net of buying an underlying business for less than it is worth was the central theme of Graham's success. Carefully chosen undervalued stocks seldom declined further, Graham found.

Principle No. 2: Expect volatility, and profit from it

Investing in stocks means dealing with volatility. Instead of running for the exits during times of market stress, the smart investor greets downturns as opportunities to find bargains. Graham illustrated this with the analogy of "Mr. Market," the imaginary business partner of each and every investor. Mr. Market offers investors a daily price quote, the price at which he would either buy out an investor or sell his share of the business.Sometimes, he will be excited about the prospects for the business and quote a high price. Other times, he is depressed about the business's prospects and quotes a low price.Because the stock market has these same emotions, the lesson here is that you shouldn't let Mr. Market's views dictate your own emotions or, worse, lead you in your investment decisions. Instead, you should form your own estimates of the business's value, based on a sound and rational examination of the facts.

Furthermore, you should buy only when the price offered makes sense and sell when the price becomes too high.Put another way, the market will fluctuate -- sometimes wildly -- but rather than fear volatility, you can use it to your advantage to get bargains or to sell out when your holdings become overvalued.Graham also suggested dollar-cost averaging as a strategy to mitigate the negative effects of market volatility. Dollar-cost averaging is achieved by buying equal dollar amounts of stock or other investments at regular intervals.The strategy takes advantage of dips in the asset's price, and means that an investor doesn't have to be concerned about buying his or her entire position at the top of the market. Dollar-cost averaging is ideal for passive investors; it relieves them of the responsibility of choosing when and at what price to buy their positions.Graham also recommended that investors distribute their portfolios evenly between stocks and bonds as a way of preserving capital in market downturns, when income from bond holdings helps preserve capital.Remember, Graham's philosophy was, first and foremost, to preserve capital and then to try to make it grow. He suggested having 25% to 75% of a portfolio in bonds, depending on prevailing market conditions.This strategy had the added advantage of keeping investors from boredom, which leads to the temptation to participate in unprofitable trading (i.e. speculating).

Principle No. 3: Know what kind of investor you are

Graham advised investors to know themselves. To illustrate, he made clear distinctions among various groups operating in the stock market.Graham referred to "enterprising investors" and "defensive investors." Those in the first group make a serious commitment in time and energy to become good investors and equate the quality and amount of hands-on research with the expected return. If this isn't your cup of tea, then be content to get passive (possibly lower) returns but with much less time and work.Graham turned the notion of "risk equals return" on its head. For him, the more work you put into your investments, the higher your return should be.If you have neither the time nor the inclination to do quality research on your investments, then investing in an index is a good alternative. Graham said that the defensive investor could get an average return by simply buying the 30 stocks of the of the of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU +0.03%) in equal amounts.Both Graham and Buffett said that getting even an average return -- for example, equaling the return of theStandard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX +0.02%) -- is more of an accomplishment than it might seem. The fallacy that many people buy into, according to Graham, is that if it's so easy to get an average return with little or no work (through indexing), then just a little more work should yield a slightly higher return. The reality is that most people who try this end up doing much worse than average.In modern terms, defensive investors would own index funds of both stocks and bonds. In essence, they own the entire market, benefiting from the areas that perform the best without trying to pick those areas ahead of time.In doing so, an investor is virtually guaranteed the market's return and avoids doing worse than average by just letting the stock market's overall results dictate long-term returns. According to Graham, beating the market is much easier said than done.Not everyone in the stock market is an investor. Graham believed that it was critical for people to determine whether they were investors or speculators. The difference is simple: An investor looks at a stock as part of a business and stockholders as the owners of the business, while the speculator views stocks as expensive pieces of paper that hold no intrinsic value. For the speculator, value is determined solely by what someone will pay for the asset.To paraphrase Graham, there is intelligent speculating as well as intelligent investing -- just be sure you understand which you are good at. http://money.msn.com/how-to-invest/3-timeless-investing-principles