The Indian markets touched multi-year best gains registered after 1992 in May with meteoric rise above 28% and the world is no different in registering yearly highs in-2009. The global indices suggest that the markets are in emerging bull market with firm Bull grip.
THE YEARLY - HIGH-LOW- CURRENT CLOSING.
NIFTY 4908.80 2252.75 4448.95
SENSEX 16632.70 7697.39 14625.25
S&P-500 1404.46 666.79 919.14
US-DOW 12760.20 6440.08 8500.33
NASDAQ 2549.94 1265.52 1774.33
HANG SENG 24923.30 10676.30 18171.00
NIKKEI-225 14601.30 6994.90 9522.50
FTSE-100 6111.60 3460.70 4417.94
DAX 7124.61 3588.89 4940.82
MIBTEL 25571.00 10347.00 15743.00
CAC-40 5028.80 2465.46 3277.65
BOVESPA 73920.00 29435.00 53197.73
STRAITS TIMES 3214.64 1455.47 2329.08
The Indian markets surged above 97% from the low registered and nearly 10% lower to its yearly highs. The strength of India and the stable government at the centre boosted the investors confidence but the retail participation is well below the expectations as the wounds were yet to heal.
The mutual funds and the cash driven FIIs are jubilant to grab the opportunity to invest in India. The liquidity chase can trigger the rally but hardly seen sustaining at the highs unless the whole hearted participation from the retail investors.
Now a different situation emerged as the election results were beyond antibody's expectation killed the the traders and the retail investors are staring the surge. So the initial euphoria is well captured by the deep pockets rather than the locals, now waiting for the calmdown of the tubulance is not a bad idea rather than jumping to conclusions.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Saturday, May 16, 2009
The results..?
The election results and likely re-grouping will decide the Monday direction but the move so far is in favour of the bulls. The results out come may be negative for a day or two but the markets likely to resume the up-trend as the bottom formation right from the 3080 is good, consolidated at each stage with 200 points gap up to 3510-3530 level. So the panic sell-off on speculative rise can be restricted at 3361-51 level.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: The Following scrips covered in my previous posting: The high, low, closings of 15-05-09:
NIFTY 3686.25 3597.85 3671.65
ICICI 579 542 574.70
RIL 1960 1911.65 1950.7
REL INFRA 847.7 808.35 820.20
REL CAP 598.9 575 591.55
ONGC 852.95 802.35 813.15
AXIS BANK 680 644.70 659.60
DLF 264.90 251.60 258.05
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: The Following scrips covered in my previous posting: The high, low, closings of 15-05-09:
NIFTY 3686.25 3597.85 3671.65
ICICI 579 542 574.70
RIL 1960 1911.65 1950.7
REL INFRA 847.7 808.35 820.20
REL CAP 598.9 575 591.55
ONGC 852.95 802.35 813.15
AXIS BANK 680 644.70 659.60
DLF 264.90 251.60 258.05
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Friday, May 15, 2009
Caution or Chance....?
Yester day trade gained strength from the bottom is amazing despite of the weak signals from the political front in the country and also the overseas markets. The kind of buying emerging when the market falls provides an impression that the markets are likely to touch 4000 in near future if it closes and trades above 3622 with a condition that the markets shall not touch a low of 3440 level in near future due to uncertainty emerges after the results.
To day markets are in green and the SGX is suggesting a possible positive opening at 3630-40 level. The Nifty is good above 3624 level and weak below 3580 level for today. The Nifty may face series of resistance till it consolidates above the resistance at 36654-58 level.
The Reliance is still in Bull grip so long it trades above 1850-40 level, any move above is considered as consolidation process. The scrip may today see a correction in case it fails to trade above 1940 level.
The story of ONGC is different to script as it was forced to accept the transport costs of Cairn fields in Rajastan and the losses of OMC’s placing pressure to cross the 900 mark but it is likely to face serious resistance at 868-864.
The Rel infra has made a decent up move by crossing the resistance at 803-06 level, now the crucial point stands at 796-93 level.
The ICICI Bank despite of the up move it made long with other counters but failed to cross the resistance at 339-41 level. The ADR gained 6% shall reflect in today’s trade to cross the resistance at 661-59 level came two days back but will the poll results place the hurdle?
The Axis bank which continued to attract buying support on all declines failed to do so is sending a feeler on the market condition. In case it catches up on with the rest today then there is nothing serious otherwise…?. The bottom support was at 610-06 level and the scrip shall cross the immediate resistance at 653-55 level.
The Relcap is finding difficult to trade above 575 level but found support at 540 level. The counter is facing resistance between 575-590 level.
The come back of the reality sector is heartening for investors who lost the most in the recent fall but a long way to go to cover the distance.
The DLF as suggested in my earlier postings got support at 220 level and continued to enjoy the support as bottom boundary for 21 series of trading sessions except that 190.55 touched in the stake sale on 13th May.
To day markets are in green and the SGX is suggesting a possible positive opening at 3630-40 level. The Nifty is good above 3624 level and weak below 3580 level for today. The Nifty may face series of resistance till it consolidates above the resistance at 36654-58 level.
The Reliance is still in Bull grip so long it trades above 1850-40 level, any move above is considered as consolidation process. The scrip may today see a correction in case it fails to trade above 1940 level.
The story of ONGC is different to script as it was forced to accept the transport costs of Cairn fields in Rajastan and the losses of OMC’s placing pressure to cross the 900 mark but it is likely to face serious resistance at 868-864.
The Rel infra has made a decent up move by crossing the resistance at 803-06 level, now the crucial point stands at 796-93 level.
The ICICI Bank despite of the up move it made long with other counters but failed to cross the resistance at 339-41 level. The ADR gained 6% shall reflect in today’s trade to cross the resistance at 661-59 level came two days back but will the poll results place the hurdle?
The Axis bank which continued to attract buying support on all declines failed to do so is sending a feeler on the market condition. In case it catches up on with the rest today then there is nothing serious otherwise…?. The bottom support was at 610-06 level and the scrip shall cross the immediate resistance at 653-55 level.
The Relcap is finding difficult to trade above 575 level but found support at 540 level. The counter is facing resistance between 575-590 level.
The come back of the reality sector is heartening for investors who lost the most in the recent fall but a long way to go to cover the distance.
The DLF as suggested in my earlier postings got support at 220 level and continued to enjoy the support as bottom boundary for 21 series of trading sessions except that 190.55 touched in the stake sale on 13th May.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: The Following scrips covered in my previous
posting: The high, low, closings of 14-05-09:
Nifty 3631.90 3537.60 3593.45
ICICIBANK 540.00 519.00 536.25
RIL 1927.50 1880.20 1908.95
REL infra 818.40 765.30 809.60
Relcap 574.80 541.20 568.80
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Thursday, May 14, 2009
The election effect…..
The results of the exit polls, predicting a neck to neck fight for the power between the two with third option not ruled out put selling pressure in the late evening with basket sell-off in Indian equities. The US markets also sold off last night made the Asian markets to open lower. The Nifty is likely to open below or at the verge of support at 3570 level and the opening trades shall not force it trade below 3540 level which attracts more selling.
The Nifty now has resistance at 3581-88 level and weak further below 3540 level will get support at 3492 level with minor support at 3514 level.
The RIL has resistance at 1938-42 level has support at 1869 level and the second is below crucial 1850-40 level to travel further down.
The ICICI was weak below 539-41 level likely to test 490 level in this fall but for today it will again test 520 level and 511 level.
The other stocks are in the earlier suggested levels. The India Bulls Reality will fall with a high side cap at 146 to touch a level of 133 and at 129.0 but the HDIL is in strong bull hands so long it trades above 162-64 level.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: The Following scrips covered in my yesterday posting: The high, low, closings of 13-05-09:
Nifty 3709.60 3610.20 3635.25
ICICIBANK 574.70 541.60 551.15
RIL 1975 1906.0 1933.
REL infra 825 773.60 798.0
Relcap 592.4 556.55 571.90
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
The Nifty now has resistance at 3581-88 level and weak further below 3540 level will get support at 3492 level with minor support at 3514 level.
The RIL has resistance at 1938-42 level has support at 1869 level and the second is below crucial 1850-40 level to travel further down.
The ICICI was weak below 539-41 level likely to test 490 level in this fall but for today it will again test 520 level and 511 level.
The other stocks are in the earlier suggested levels. The India Bulls Reality will fall with a high side cap at 146 to touch a level of 133 and at 129.0 but the HDIL is in strong bull hands so long it trades above 162-64 level.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: The Following scrips covered in my yesterday posting: The high, low, closings of 13-05-09:
Nifty 3709.60 3610.20 3635.25
ICICIBANK 574.70 541.60 551.15
RIL 1975 1906.0 1933.
REL infra 825 773.60 798.0
Relcap 592.4 556.55 571.90
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Buying and buying……
The markets witnessed un-precedent up move beyond expectations. The markets sensed the possible hassle free govt. formation at the centre and the foreign investments are now unabated. The stocks have become dirt cheap for them and the growth story is intact despite the poor IIP numbers contracted by 2.3% but the silver lining is that the power generation up by 6.3% and mining up by 0.4%. They are not deterred by the short-term month on month contracted numbers but focusing on overall long-term opportunity stored in as POTENTIAL.
The Asian markets are flat with negative bias. The US closed slightly in green but the NASDAQ was down by 1%. The Tata Steel plans to restructure the loan by prepayment; plans to raise 3000 crore through NCDs and plans for efficient use of Corus capacities in these turbulent times, layoffs could cross 10,000. The independent auditors will look into the books of telecos.
The RIL will repay nearly 15000 crores surplus cash flow due to the merger of RPL can save huge amount on interest. DLF wants to sell 10%, plans o raise 3850 crores through QIP route.
The Nifty is in Bull grip with yesterday move so long it trades above 3573-71 level. The immediate support for today’s trade is at 3640 level but the up side resistance is also close at 3720 level again at 3736-41 level. So a more consolidation moves on the cards.
The RIL is strong above 1894 but the resistance at 1963 and at 1981. The bull move has the potential to take it to 2040 to 2057 level.
The Rel infra has resistance at 803-06 level and become weak below 77169 level. The ICICI has resistance at 559-61 level and the second one at 576 level and the support exists at 542-44 level. The Relcap may test 583-86 level but become weak below 548 level.
The Asian markets are flat with negative bias. The US closed slightly in green but the NASDAQ was down by 1%. The Tata Steel plans to restructure the loan by prepayment; plans to raise 3000 crore through NCDs and plans for efficient use of Corus capacities in these turbulent times, layoffs could cross 10,000. The independent auditors will look into the books of telecos.
The RIL will repay nearly 15000 crores surplus cash flow due to the merger of RPL can save huge amount on interest. DLF wants to sell 10%, plans o raise 3850 crores through QIP route.
The Nifty is in Bull grip with yesterday move so long it trades above 3573-71 level. The immediate support for today’s trade is at 3640 level but the up side resistance is also close at 3720 level again at 3736-41 level. So a more consolidation moves on the cards.
The RIL is strong above 1894 but the resistance at 1963 and at 1981. The bull move has the potential to take it to 2040 to 2057 level.
The Rel infra has resistance at 803-06 level and become weak below 77169 level. The ICICI has resistance at 559-61 level and the second one at 576 level and the support exists at 542-44 level. The Relcap may test 583-86 level but become weak below 548 level.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
The unwinding pressure……..
The markets took the heat of selling pressure from the Bears as well as from the Bull unwinding in the afternoon kept the indices low but the beauty part of the yester day trade was that Nifty did not collapse despite of such sustained selling. The market absorbed comfortable the selling pressure.
The notable gainers of big name are – Tulip IT and Nucleus software, AuroPharma, JindalSAW, Havells…etc. The reality sector and the metals were worst hit.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
The Following scrips covered in my yesterday posting: The high, low, closings of 11-05-09:
Nifty 3660.2 3534.55 3554.60
ICICIBANK 547.75 513 523.35
RIL 1928 1850.1 1861.60
REL infra 792.90 746.55 763.0
DLF 244.80 226.10 228.1
T.Steel 288.80 267.20 270.65
SAIL 127.15 118.20 120.15
JP ASSOCIAT 144.70 133.30 135.50
Relcap 595 540.8 546.50
ONGC 903.80 872.50 879.7
HUL 236.50 226 227.15
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
The notable gainers of big name are – Tulip IT and Nucleus software, AuroPharma, JindalSAW, Havells…etc. The reality sector and the metals were worst hit.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
The Following scrips covered in my yesterday posting: The high, low, closings of 11-05-09:
Nifty 3660.2 3534.55 3554.60
ICICIBANK 547.75 513 523.35
RIL 1928 1850.1 1861.60
REL infra 792.90 746.55 763.0
DLF 244.80 226.10 228.1
T.Steel 288.80 267.20 270.65
SAIL 127.15 118.20 120.15
JP ASSOCIAT 144.70 133.30 135.50
Relcap 595 540.8 546.50
ONGC 903.80 872.50 879.7
HUL 236.50 226 227.15
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Monday, May 11, 2009
The crucial band……?
The counting begins this week itself even the last leg of voting is in progress. The markets will see the gyrations widely as the days running close the counting and announcement of the results. The positive news from the overseas markets could only prop up our markets but the challenge ahead of the week will be the big event of “forming the power centre with number portability” form political parties of smaller size. Now small is beautiful here for…?
The Asian market is mixed but the US performed well above 2% gains. The SGX Nifty suggesting a positive opening of 1% gains to our markets. The Nifty is close to the crucial point at 3650-60 level. The NIFTY is unlikely to hold above the 3680 level.
The Nifty is facing resistance at 3654-58 level and the support can be expected at 3571-73 and at 3541-39 level for this day.
The RIL is in the previous suggested levels. The SBI results are good despite a lower growth in the NIM but the concern for Bhat is to manage the unprecedented growth in the deposits as the Pvt. Sector bank failures in the west prompted the depositors to choose the PSU mammoth.
The SBI is good above 1375 and weak below 1347. The support exists at 1256-58 level but today it is likely to stay above 1296 level and may cross and close above the 1350 mark. In case it stays above 1350 the scrip has the potential to cross 1475 and then 1507.
The ICICI is likely to get support from SBI mood to cross the 536 mark but face resistance at 544 level.
The Relcap is good above 594 and weak below 573.
The Tata steel corus impact can be seen today. The inventory loss due to order cancellation by the consortium and the revival of the unit, fate of the employees will impact. Technically the scrip is Bull grip but the sudden developments impose pressure on the up move. So the counter may face resistance at 288 and the support is at 209-11 level once the 264 support is broken decisively.
The Govt. plans to ask ONGC to fill the loss of the OMCs may pressure this counter though the crude is ruling high above 58 dollars per barrel. So ONGC unlikely to stay above 900 mark due to this developments, even it stays not good to buy, but has good bottom support at 845-48 level and a series of reasonable supports.
The HUL bogged down by the private labels and more in future may place the stock at 202 and 194 level in future.
The Asian market is mixed but the US performed well above 2% gains. The SGX Nifty suggesting a positive opening of 1% gains to our markets. The Nifty is close to the crucial point at 3650-60 level. The NIFTY is unlikely to hold above the 3680 level.
The Nifty is facing resistance at 3654-58 level and the support can be expected at 3571-73 and at 3541-39 level for this day.
The RIL is in the previous suggested levels. The SBI results are good despite a lower growth in the NIM but the concern for Bhat is to manage the unprecedented growth in the deposits as the Pvt. Sector bank failures in the west prompted the depositors to choose the PSU mammoth.
The SBI is good above 1375 and weak below 1347. The support exists at 1256-58 level but today it is likely to stay above 1296 level and may cross and close above the 1350 mark. In case it stays above 1350 the scrip has the potential to cross 1475 and then 1507.
The ICICI is likely to get support from SBI mood to cross the 536 mark but face resistance at 544 level.
The Relcap is good above 594 and weak below 573.
The Tata steel corus impact can be seen today. The inventory loss due to order cancellation by the consortium and the revival of the unit, fate of the employees will impact. Technically the scrip is Bull grip but the sudden developments impose pressure on the up move. So the counter may face resistance at 288 and the support is at 209-11 level once the 264 support is broken decisively.
The Govt. plans to ask ONGC to fill the loss of the OMCs may pressure this counter though the crude is ruling high above 58 dollars per barrel. So ONGC unlikely to stay above 900 mark due to this developments, even it stays not good to buy, but has good bottom support at 845-48 level and a series of reasonable supports.
The HUL bogged down by the private labels and more in future may place the stock at 202 and 194 level in future.
Sunday, May 10, 2009
The pre-election rally ended..?
The strong consolidation of 3 weeks at 3332-82, Nifty took a leap to 3482 then jumped to a level of 3650 range. Nifty even touched an intraday high at 3717 level before closing the week at 3621 level. The noon-stop 9 positive weekly closing right from 6th march to day placed Nifty from 2609 to 3620 level.
The retail investors, DII and MFs who are very much cradled by the swings of 200-250 points either side at 2700. They presumed that the FII ran out of money and wanting more from the emerging markets, shorting the market at every rise and things like that kept them a side by waiting for the turn to “auspicious jump” has never happed till date but the stocks rose more than 100% from their distressed lows.
Now many started asking for a deep correction so that they can buy and hold for this kind of a rally like situation from where they can make an exit, even that won’t happen in near future. When everybody wanted to replicate the known model then how can any body “demand” for a premium?. It is as simple as that- “Not every body can afford every time to build a PALACE by each construction or even grave yards be dug every where”.
The retail investors, DII and MFs who are very much cradled by the swings of 200-250 points either side at 2700. They presumed that the FII ran out of money and wanting more from the emerging markets, shorting the market at every rise and things like that kept them a side by waiting for the turn to “auspicious jump” has never happed till date but the stocks rose more than 100% from their distressed lows.
Now many started asking for a deep correction so that they can buy and hold for this kind of a rally like situation from where they can make an exit, even that won’t happen in near future. When everybody wanted to replicate the known model then how can any body “demand” for a premium?. It is as simple as that- “Not every body can afford every time to build a PALACE by each construction or even grave yards be dug every where”.
Friday, May 08, 2009
the correction for consolidation...?
The heated markets over the week could end with tepid note with llow volumes. The stellar performance from the metal space took a beating due to profit booking from the retail investors. The Nifty has still above the support levels despite of this 64 points fall.
The shipping companies and plantation companies are in the lime light where as the software companies felt the heat.
The shipping companies and plantation companies are in the lime light where as the software companies felt the heat.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
Nifty 3711.25 3582.85 3620.70
ICICIBANK 550.9 515.15 520.75
RIL 1932 1875 1900.30
REL infra 817 756.35 768.65
DLF 525 235.65 240.65
T.Steel 302.85 280.15 282.40
SAIL 129.80 121.80 125
JP ASSOCIAT 144.35 134 142.10
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Metallic rise….
The markets rose on stellar performance from the metal space. The stocks rallied between 7 – 15% despite the steep valuation and losses of previous quarters but on the hope of demand and price correction upwards and support from anti dumping duty from GOI.
The FIIs continued to support the markets even at higher valuations. The markets are hovering around 3655 level +_ 35 points. The Nifty is weak below the crucial level suggested to get support at 3571 and lower at 3560 level.
The RIL is strong above 1880 level and weak below 1860 level to touch the 1790-60 level or even lower. The SBI is in a band of 1320-1375 level a head of results scheduled for tomorrow. The ICIC is weak below 549-51 level to touch the 503-496 level. Today it may get support at 523 and at lower levels at 518-16 level.
The Rel infra for the last 5 trading sessions in the bull grip facing resistance at 820-25 level will become weak below 803 to touch the support at 778-73 level.
The DLF engulfed in IT suit weak below 244 to touch 233-31 level and become very weak below 226 level. The JP is correcting lower levels may touch 126 level in future has very good support at 118-114 level from where the Bulls support is assured.
The heated metal may take some time to settle but the Tata steel likely to touch 336-341 level in future.
The FIIs continued to support the markets even at higher valuations. The markets are hovering around 3655 level +_ 35 points. The Nifty is weak below the crucial level suggested to get support at 3571 and lower at 3560 level.
The RIL is strong above 1880 level and weak below 1860 level to touch the 1790-60 level or even lower. The SBI is in a band of 1320-1375 level a head of results scheduled for tomorrow. The ICIC is weak below 549-51 level to touch the 503-496 level. Today it may get support at 523 and at lower levels at 518-16 level.
The Rel infra for the last 5 trading sessions in the bull grip facing resistance at 820-25 level will become weak below 803 to touch the support at 778-73 level.
The DLF engulfed in IT suit weak below 244 to touch 233-31 level and become very weak below 226 level. The JP is correcting lower levels may touch 126 level in future has very good support at 118-114 level from where the Bulls support is assured.
The heated metal may take some time to settle but the Tata steel likely to touch 336-341 level in future.
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
The FIIs pour dollars………..
The Obama administration has single point agenda to change the rules of the game to favour Protectionism from free trade. The US was reduced in its thinking to save their lots from competition. The world was rally has reached a stage from where the stock returns can be in a range. The markets in India have continued to rally at the Index level now spread to Mid & small caps. The today fall is more a correction at the large cap level than a down turn. The fall from higher level very much confined to the big ticker names be it DLF, ICICI, Relcap, HDFC, Kotak, JP associates, Tata steel, IVRCL, Indian Bank, IDFC, IDBI and other like sugar stocks.
The phenomenal rise witnessed in the mid caps like Havells ( 36%), Tulip (25%), KesoramInd and other smaller power companies. The Tata Power and R power showed their resilience to meet the on slaughter.
The Monday rise was tepid interms of volumes but the percentage of rise is good. A critical study shows that the Monday rise did not help at least 70 companies to close above the closings made on 20th April when the Nifty closed at 3371. The most under performer is the ROLTA, SKUMAR, Gitanjali gems, Bank of India, ABB, Aban and many more. On the other hand the best out performers are Mind tree, Wipro, ICICI bank, TVS motors, Pantloon and others continued rise more than 25%
The Nifty rose more than 8% from the comparison date 20th April 09. The Bank Nifty rose 9% and CNXIT rose by 15%. The heavy weight like Infosy rose by nearly 13% where as Reliance rose by 10%, Rel Infra rose by 15% and Grasim by 13%. The prominent name that are under performing are ESSAROIL,IOB,ZEEL,INDIANB,ROLTA,BOSCHLTD,BPCL,THERMAX,MARUTI
MCDOWELL-N,BANKINDIA,DIVISLAB,ASIANPAINT,ABB,ABAN,EDUCOMP,
The BEST OUT PERFORMERS BY PERCENTAGE:
HAVELLS 39.611
MINDTREE 36.212
BAJAJHIND 34.762
WIPRO 31.692
LICHSGFIN 31.397
TULIP 31.357
PENINAND 30.612
KESORAMIND 28.037
PANTALOONR 27.615
TVSMOTOR 27.103
ICICIBANK 26.583
HDIL 25.589
SUZLON 24.596
IDFC 21.862
VOLTAS 20.668
The phenomenal rise witnessed in the mid caps like Havells ( 36%), Tulip (25%), KesoramInd and other smaller power companies. The Tata Power and R power showed their resilience to meet the on slaughter.
The Monday rise was tepid interms of volumes but the percentage of rise is good. A critical study shows that the Monday rise did not help at least 70 companies to close above the closings made on 20th April when the Nifty closed at 3371. The most under performer is the ROLTA, SKUMAR, Gitanjali gems, Bank of India, ABB, Aban and many more. On the other hand the best out performers are Mind tree, Wipro, ICICI bank, TVS motors, Pantloon and others continued rise more than 25%
The Nifty rose more than 8% from the comparison date 20th April 09. The Bank Nifty rose 9% and CNXIT rose by 15%. The heavy weight like Infosy rose by nearly 13% where as Reliance rose by 10%, Rel Infra rose by 15% and Grasim by 13%. The prominent name that are under performing are ESSAROIL,IOB,ZEEL,INDIANB,ROLTA,BOSCHLTD,BPCL,THERMAX,MARUTI
MCDOWELL-N,BANKINDIA,DIVISLAB,ASIANPAINT,ABB,ABAN,EDUCOMP,
The BEST OUT PERFORMERS BY PERCENTAGE:
HAVELLS 39.611
MINDTREE 36.212
BAJAJHIND 34.762
WIPRO 31.692
LICHSGFIN 31.397
TULIP 31.357
PENINAND 30.612
KESORAMIND 28.037
PANTALOONR 27.615
TVSMOTOR 27.103
ICICIBANK 26.583
HDIL 25.589
SUZLON 24.596
IDFC 21.862
VOLTAS 20.668
Monday, May 04, 2009
The shoot out strength………
The yearly high of Nifty was at 5167.40 and the low was at 2252.75 and now today Nifty closed at 3654.0. So the non stop rise from March 6th covered a distance of 1401 points. So technically the markets are at cross roads irrespective of their Bullishness or Bearish market short covering. The rise points to low are at 0.622 and the yearly high to closing was at 1513 and the ratio stands at 0.293. The SENSEX is also displaying the same trend, the SENSEX yearly high was at 17,735.70 and the low was at 7697.3 and today the SENSEX closed at 12,134.75. The rise from low works at 4437 and the distance it has to travel 5600 points to cross the yearly high.
The markets have not yet received the ONGC and steel sector results which may disappoint. The rally is getting threat from the terrorist mails.
The SEBI is working closely to find out the insider trading in RPL by Reliance may curb the inner momentum strength as the new flow started for the Bears now.
The markets have not yet received the ONGC and steel sector results which may disappoint. The rally is getting threat from the terrorist mails.
The SEBI is working closely to find out the insider trading in RPL by Reliance may curb the inner momentum strength as the new flow started for the Bears now.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
SUSTAINED GROWTH……
The markets exhibited sustained growth without any volatile situations that normally seen on expiry day but a sustained buying at every point was exhibited. The investors across the globe providing support to stock prices as they look cheap when compared to the history highs registered.
A serious redflag caution is advised as the P/E ratio at 16.53, the forward earnings likely to deteriorate will increase it to above 20 even at the current prices. So the retail investors can wait for a substantial fall to buy the blue chips as our economy likely to contract due to lack of demand for our produts on overseas and the huge expansions initiated two to three years back now put pressure on the internal demand as the suppply is likely to exceed.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
The Following scrips covered in my previous posting:
The high, low, closings of 29-04-08:
Nifty 3486.40 3366.70 3473.95
ICICIBANK 484.50 444 479.20
RIL 1820 1745.85 1806.25
REL infra 699.25 670 695.20
Rel Cap 527.80 497.80 524.50
T.Steel 243.60 229.50 238.10
SAIL 111.85 107.30 109.20
BHARTI 758 714 752.75
ONGC 870 833.55 864.75
LT 889 852 879.35
I may be right or wrong-“No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
A serious redflag caution is advised as the P/E ratio at 16.53, the forward earnings likely to deteriorate will increase it to above 20 even at the current prices. So the retail investors can wait for a substantial fall to buy the blue chips as our economy likely to contract due to lack of demand for our produts on overseas and the huge expansions initiated two to three years back now put pressure on the internal demand as the suppply is likely to exceed.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
The Following scrips covered in my previous posting:
The high, low, closings of 29-04-08:
Nifty 3486.40 3366.70 3473.95
ICICIBANK 484.50 444 479.20
RIL 1820 1745.85 1806.25
REL infra 699.25 670 695.20
Rel Cap 527.80 497.80 524.50
T.Steel 243.60 229.50 238.10
SAIL 111.85 107.30 109.20
BHARTI 758 714 752.75
ONGC 870 833.55 864.75
LT 889 852 879.35
I may be right or wrong-“No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
The April series………..
The market roll over for may series is low due to the domestic events and due to the negative global news flows. The series may end with volatility but the markets may see some bounce back in the early trade as suggested by the SGX Nifty index.
The markets are at the verge of support as the major index heavy weights are trading below or just above the support levels in RIL, ONGC, Bharti, NTPC, ITC and HUL. On the positive side the LT, Infosys, Wipro, SBI, ICICI and HDFC bank are in Bull grip.
The Nifty as suggested in my earlier postings took support at 3350 level and this will gain strength when it trades above 3420 level. The intermediate range between 3280 and 3420 level is a consolidation range.
The earlier suggested levels hold good for RIL and ICICI. The Relcap and RelInfra lost much ground as expected and suggested. Now rel cap will be under bear pressure but can bounce to 525 level. It is very weak below 513-15 level. The Rel infra can also see a bounce back up to 693 level as suggested earlier.
The ONGC is weak below 829 and gains strength above 866-69 level. The Bharti is good above 735 can go upto 790 leve when it trades above 756-59 mild resistance level. It will become weak when the results disappoints the street may well go below support level at 686-88 level.
The LT is in Bull grip good above 896-902 level may touch 938 and 947 levels. The Sail is good still it is above 106 but likely to touch 90-93 level once it breaches due to the negative sector news. But today it will hold above 100-102 level.
The markets are at the verge of support as the major index heavy weights are trading below or just above the support levels in RIL, ONGC, Bharti, NTPC, ITC and HUL. On the positive side the LT, Infosys, Wipro, SBI, ICICI and HDFC bank are in Bull grip.
The Nifty as suggested in my earlier postings took support at 3350 level and this will gain strength when it trades above 3420 level. The intermediate range between 3280 and 3420 level is a consolidation range.
The earlier suggested levels hold good for RIL and ICICI. The Relcap and RelInfra lost much ground as expected and suggested. Now rel cap will be under bear pressure but can bounce to 525 level. It is very weak below 513-15 level. The Rel infra can also see a bounce back up to 693 level as suggested earlier.
The ONGC is weak below 829 and gains strength above 866-69 level. The Bharti is good above 735 can go upto 790 leve when it trades above 756-59 mild resistance level. It will become weak when the results disappoints the street may well go below support level at 686-88 level.
The LT is in Bull grip good above 896-902 level may touch 938 and 947 levels. The Sail is good still it is above 106 but likely to touch 90-93 level once it breaches due to the negative sector news. But today it will hold above 100-102 level.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
SWINE FLU CATCH......
The markets could have little support to hold above the 3450 level due to global melt down and due to the Expiry on Wednesday. The Infras felt the heat and the banking bowed to the bear pressure.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
The Following scrips covered in my previous posting:
The high, low, closings of 28-04-08:
Nifty 3471.95 3351.50 3362.35
ICICIBANK 470 433.05 439.05
RIL 1792 1731 1737.15
REL infra 723.90 654 661.55
Rel Cap 544.70 487.75 492.80
T.steel 257.4 232 234.35
SAIL 113.40 106.50 107.60
BHARTI 749.9 713 724.35
The high, low, closings of 27-04-08(Yesterday):
Nifty 3517.25 3435.30 3470.
ICICIBANK 477.95 411.10 467.55
RIL 1807 1761 1785.55
REL infra 1751.50 701.35 1710.85
Rel Cap 568 526.30 532.05
T.Steel 268.50 251.05 253.75
SAIL 115.70 110.10 111.90
BHARTI 756.40 730.20 743.65
I may be right or wrong-“No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
The Following scrips covered in my previous posting:
The high, low, closings of 28-04-08:
Nifty 3471.95 3351.50 3362.35
ICICIBANK 470 433.05 439.05
RIL 1792 1731 1737.15
REL infra 723.90 654 661.55
Rel Cap 544.70 487.75 492.80
T.steel 257.4 232 234.35
SAIL 113.40 106.50 107.60
BHARTI 749.9 713 724.35
The high, low, closings of 27-04-08(Yesterday):
Nifty 3517.25 3435.30 3470.
ICICIBANK 477.95 411.10 467.55
RIL 1807 1761 1785.55
REL infra 1751.50 701.35 1710.85
Rel Cap 568 526.30 532.05
T.Steel 268.50 251.05 253.75
SAIL 115.70 110.10 111.90
BHARTI 756.40 730.20 743.65
I may be right or wrong-“No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Monday, April 27, 2009
STRESSED…..
The order of the day now opening with stressed accounts and the amount related will hit the head lines as the markets are likely to witness the results and reveals from the Indian banking sector. The aggressive private sector bank ICICi has announced its numbers far below than the street expectations. The NII and the NIM are both are positive but the provisions are huge that resulting a drop of more than 35% in net profits. The stock which faced resistance at 439 level may become weak below 430, the bears run as the stock falls below 415…, 403….and the earlier supports at 495-90 may not hold as the support is expected first at 378-81 level and at 357-53 level. The stock is technically in Bulls grip. The Bulls lighten their positions in the counter when it trades below 321 level and the Bears take advantage below 315 levels.
The Asian markets are mixed and the SGX nifty suggests 40 points loss with negative bias. The Nifty is in Bull grip so long it trades above 4221-23 level, major support is at 4361-63 level but the resistance is expected at 3509-3524 level. The markets may get support at 3350 level as the upward momentum was in place. As the markets has risen in the last two trading sessions, the fall in prices still keel them in bulls grip.
The RIL could cross the immediate resistance at 1735-39 level and touched a high of 1802. Today it may face resistance at 1809-11 but gains upward momentum above 1821 level. The stock will become weak only it trades below 1693 level.
The Rel infra will face resistance at 1751-54 level and the support is expected at 684-86 level. The stock is in Bull grip above 719-21 level.
The Relcap has potential to go to 579-81 level so long it trades above 542-39 level. The stock will get support at 523 level.
The T.steel has recovered from a low of 240 level to 270 level may see some correction so is the other metals. The Sail will get Bulls support above 116.50.
The Bharti is good above 726 level but may face resistance at 767-71 level. The RCOM is good above 226 level but the support at 218-19 level and will become weak below 215 level.
The SWINE FLU is threatening to kill more as it spreads but the medicines are available.
The crucial results to be announced on Monday are from Aban, Bank Baroda, Indian bank, Oriental bank, United spirits, Tech Mahindra castrol, Areva, Bartronics, Exide Ind, and Vimta labs.
The Asian markets are mixed and the SGX nifty suggests 40 points loss with negative bias. The Nifty is in Bull grip so long it trades above 4221-23 level, major support is at 4361-63 level but the resistance is expected at 3509-3524 level. The markets may get support at 3350 level as the upward momentum was in place. As the markets has risen in the last two trading sessions, the fall in prices still keel them in bulls grip.
The RIL could cross the immediate resistance at 1735-39 level and touched a high of 1802. Today it may face resistance at 1809-11 but gains upward momentum above 1821 level. The stock will become weak only it trades below 1693 level.
The Rel infra will face resistance at 1751-54 level and the support is expected at 684-86 level. The stock is in Bull grip above 719-21 level.
The Relcap has potential to go to 579-81 level so long it trades above 542-39 level. The stock will get support at 523 level.
The T.steel has recovered from a low of 240 level to 270 level may see some correction so is the other metals. The Sail will get Bulls support above 116.50.
The Bharti is good above 726 level but may face resistance at 767-71 level. The RCOM is good above 226 level but the support at 218-19 level and will become weak below 215 level.
The SWINE FLU is threatening to kill more as it spreads but the medicines are available.
The crucial results to be announced on Monday are from Aban, Bank Baroda, Indian bank, Oriental bank, United spirits, Tech Mahindra castrol, Areva, Bartronics, Exide Ind, and Vimta labs.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
“Conspiracy”
“Conspiracy”-be it on Anil or by Saimira. The ADAG group alleges that the ill-eyed, dark hearted people jealous of the group’s progress plans to kill him. The Citi sleeps are not but the CEO Pandit lost his sleep on the plans of removal from the top post. The SEBI came out with a stringent action against the peopled involved in price manupulation by forged letters of open offer by the promoters, broker and the media persons involved in Saimira episode.
The govt. expects 40 billion dollar FDI and the growth rate above 7-8% will be visible in the second half. The Results of Cipla are good to digest where the Ranbaxy swallowed a bitter pill and hard to digest as the losses are mounting quarter on quarter. The surprise was the decline in profits of Maruti and it expects the future is not rosy.
The Major results today are from ICICI bank, Balrampur chinni, Triveni engg, Petronet Lng and other smaller companies. The Sunday poised for software company results- Mind tree, Nucleus soft and R-system to announce their results.
The govt. expects 40 billion dollar FDI and the growth rate above 7-8% will be visible in the second half. The Results of Cipla are good to digest where the Ranbaxy swallowed a bitter pill and hard to digest as the losses are mounting quarter on quarter. The surprise was the decline in profits of Maruti and it expects the future is not rosy.
The Major results today are from ICICI bank, Balrampur chinni, Triveni engg, Petronet Lng and other smaller companies. The Sunday poised for software company results- Mind tree, Nucleus soft and R-system to announce their results.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
The Following scrips covered in my morning posting:
Nifty 3491.35 3402.90 3480.75
ICICIBANK 439.40 415.10 434.10
RIL 1802.00 1727.00 1788.85
REL infra 747.00 703.40 740.50
Rel Cap 563.00 530.35 557.65
I may be right or wrong-"No argument with the ticker- NEVER".
Friday, April 24, 2009
The crucial support…..
The markets took support to bounce back from the day’s lows to close at day’s high is a clear bullish sign. The results of RIL and other major companies results shall be discounted at current levels is debatable. The internal demand for infra structure, construction and related activities were grossly stalled for want of Govt direction and the 3-G auction and other related policy decisions were put on hold will see light after the new budget. The list can be enlarged but the fact is that they store potential for sustained growth by meeting the internal demand.
The RIL results are not good on the face of it as the other income has increased considerably to 993 cr and the purchase of traded goods has increased from 590cr to 5807cr during this year. The other income and profit from exceptional items has contributed 1363 cr nearly 25% of the profits from operations. The future out look is bright due to KG basin oil & gas may hold the price and the RPL merger may add value but the upside is definitely capped for a quarter at least. The stock has very good support at 1530 level. Any dip below this is a buying opportunity as the support at 1330 level may not breach under present conditions.
The Rel Infra results are good under these difficult times. The R Power news flow is good as many projects are in pipe line, RNRL results are good. The HDFC bank results are good but it says that the NPAs may increase due to the economic slow down is a cause of concern.
The inflation was at 0.26% when compared to the last week gave good signs of relief to the RBI as it plans to induce more money into the system to spur the demand as the estimates of growth was pegged at 6% much below the regularly suggested levels of 8%-few months later7.5%- few weeks later it was at 7% and now the latest figure.
For today the Nifty has to trade above 3381 level to continue the up trend. The street reaction on RIL results hold key. The yesterday levels are for RIL, Rel Infra. As such there no serious change in the levels as they were discussed earlier. The ICICI has to face resistance at 442-39 level but the support exists at 415 level. The Relcap may face resistance at 549-51 level.
Today BEL, CIPLA,IDBI, Ranbaxy, Maruti will announce their numbers.
The RIL results are not good on the face of it as the other income has increased considerably to 993 cr and the purchase of traded goods has increased from 590cr to 5807cr during this year. The other income and profit from exceptional items has contributed 1363 cr nearly 25% of the profits from operations. The future out look is bright due to KG basin oil & gas may hold the price and the RPL merger may add value but the upside is definitely capped for a quarter at least. The stock has very good support at 1530 level. Any dip below this is a buying opportunity as the support at 1330 level may not breach under present conditions.
The Rel Infra results are good under these difficult times. The R Power news flow is good as many projects are in pipe line, RNRL results are good. The HDFC bank results are good but it says that the NPAs may increase due to the economic slow down is a cause of concern.
The inflation was at 0.26% when compared to the last week gave good signs of relief to the RBI as it plans to induce more money into the system to spur the demand as the estimates of growth was pegged at 6% much below the regularly suggested levels of 8%-few months later7.5%- few weeks later it was at 7% and now the latest figure.
For today the Nifty has to trade above 3381 level to continue the up trend. The street reaction on RIL results hold key. The yesterday levels are for RIL, Rel Infra. As such there no serious change in the levels as they were discussed earlier. The ICICI has to face resistance at 442-39 level but the support exists at 415 level. The Relcap may face resistance at 549-51 level.
Today BEL, CIPLA,IDBI, Ranbaxy, Maruti will announce their numbers.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: The Following scrips covered in my morning posting:
Nifty 3439.90 3310.5 3423.70
ICICIBANK 431.60 395.10 424.40
RIL 1774.90 1696 1763.70
REL infra 716.65 662.10 712.35
Rel Cap 535.60 496.05 531.80
DLF 240.7 222.40 238.05
HDIL 147.25 124.15 144.85
HDFCBANK 1100 1065.40 1092.50
T.STEEL 266.35 238.65 262.85
SAIL 116.40 106.50 115.10
I may be right or wrong-“No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
The crucial support…..
The markets took support to bounce back from the day’s lows to close at day’s high is a clear bullish sign. The results of RIL and other major companies results shall be discounted at current levels is debatable. The internal demand for infra structure, construction and related activities were grossly stalled for want of Govt direction and the 3-G auction and other related policy decisions were put on hold will see light after the new budget. The list can be enlarged but the fact is that they store potential for sustained growth by meeting the internal demand.
The RIL results are not good on the face of it as the other income has increased considerably to 993 cr and the purchase of traded goods has increased from 590cr to 5807cr during this year. The other income and profit from exceptional items has contributed 1363 cr nearly 25% of the profits from operations. The future out look is bright due to KG basin oil & gas may hold the price and the RPL merger may add value but the upside is definitely capped for a quarter at least. The stock has very good support at 1530 level. Any dip below this is a buying opportunity as the support at 1330 level may not breach under present conditions.
The Rel Infra results are good under these difficult times. The R Power news flow is good as many projects are in pipe line, RNRL results are good. The HDFC bank results are good but it says that the NPAs may increase due to the economic slow down is a cause of concern.
The inflation was at 0.26% when compared to the last week gave good signs of relief to the RBI as it plans to induce more money into the system to spur the demand as the estimates of growth was pegged at 6% much below the regularly suggested levels of 8%-few months later7.5%- few weeks later it was at 7% and now the latest figure.
For today the Nifty has to trade above 3381 level to continue the up trend. The street reaction on RIL results hold key. The yesterday levels are for RIL, Rel Infra. As such there no serious change in the levels as they were discussed earlier. The ICICI has to face resistance at 442-39 level but the support exists at 415 level. The Relcap may face resistance at 549-51 level.
The RIL results are not good on the face of it as the other income has increased considerably to 993 cr and the purchase of traded goods has increased from 590cr to 5807cr during this year. The other income and profit from exceptional items has contributed 1363 cr nearly 25% of the profits from operations. The future out look is bright due to KG basin oil & gas may hold the price and the RPL merger may add value but the upside is definitely capped for a quarter at least. The stock has very good support at 1530 level. Any dip below this is a buying opportunity as the support at 1330 level may not breach under present conditions.
The Rel Infra results are good under these difficult times. The R Power news flow is good as many projects are in pipe line, RNRL results are good. The HDFC bank results are good but it says that the NPAs may increase due to the economic slow down is a cause of concern.
The inflation was at 0.26% when compared to the last week gave good signs of relief to the RBI as it plans to induce more money into the system to spur the demand as the estimates of growth was pegged at 6% much below the regularly suggested levels of 8%-few months later7.5%- few weeks later it was at 7% and now the latest figure.
For today the Nifty has to trade above 3381 level to continue the up trend. The street reaction on RIL results hold key. The yesterday levels are for RIL, Rel Infra. As such there no serious change in the levels as they were discussed earlier. The ICICI has to face resistance at 442-39 level but the support exists at 415 level. The Relcap may face resistance at 549-51 level.
Today BEL, CIPLA,IDBI, Ranbaxy, Maruti will announce their numbers.
The Performance of yesterday :
Nifty 3439.90 3310.5 3423.70
ICICIBANK
431.60 395.10 424.40
RIL 1774.90 1696 1763.70
REL infra 716.65 662.10
712.35
Rel Cap 535.60 496.05 531.80
DLF 240.7 222.40 238.05
HDIL 147.25
124.15 144.85
HDFCBANK 1100 1065.40 1092.50
T.STEEL 266.35 238.65
262.85
SAIL 116.40 106.50 115.10
Thursday, April 23, 2009
The Big boy announces…
The India’s top market cap leader, index mover Reliance is going to announces is quarterly results. The markets are waiting for the RIL results and the Nifty may swing in tune with the scrip.
The top notable companies that are going to announce the results are RPL, RNRL, Rel infra, Rpower, HDFC bank, LIC housing, SKF, Idea Zee news and many more…
The Nifty is good above 3381 and weak below 3356 level. The RIL results influence the market trend. The Nifty become weak if it trades below 3320 level will likely to touch 3265 and next at 3229-31 level. The second support level will provide reasonable bounce from 3211-18 level to Nifty.
The RIL is good above 1735 and weak below 1715 may get support at1684 level, once it falls below 1665 will get support at 1615-30 range.
The banking major SBI and ICICI are facing Bear heat. The SBI is weak and good support is at 1180-65 level. The ICICI may get support from 376-79 level. This will gain strength only when it crosses the immediate resistance at 416-18.
The Relcap is exhibiting good support at 500 level and will gain strength above 521 level and weak below 511-13 level. It has bounced from the support at 491 level when it touched 495 low now holding above 500. In case it falls below 495 then the support at 472-467 level.
The HDFC bank is facing resistance at 1100 level and the support at 1040 level. The critical juncture is at 1085-1067 range.Please watch out for break-out in SAIL, RCOM, United Spirits.The reality sector major is getting support at 225 level and the HDIL at 124 level.
The top notable companies that are going to announce the results are RPL, RNRL, Rel infra, Rpower, HDFC bank, LIC housing, SKF, Idea Zee news and many more…
The Nifty is good above 3381 and weak below 3356 level. The RIL results influence the market trend. The Nifty become weak if it trades below 3320 level will likely to touch 3265 and next at 3229-31 level. The second support level will provide reasonable bounce from 3211-18 level to Nifty.
The RIL is good above 1735 and weak below 1715 may get support at1684 level, once it falls below 1665 will get support at 1615-30 range.
The banking major SBI and ICICI are facing Bear heat. The SBI is weak and good support is at 1180-65 level. The ICICI may get support from 376-79 level. This will gain strength only when it crosses the immediate resistance at 416-18.
The Relcap is exhibiting good support at 500 level and will gain strength above 521 level and weak below 511-13 level. It has bounced from the support at 491 level when it touched 495 low now holding above 500. In case it falls below 495 then the support at 472-467 level.
The HDFC bank is facing resistance at 1100 level and the support at 1040 level. The critical juncture is at 1085-1067 range.Please watch out for break-out in SAIL, RCOM, United Spirits.The reality sector major is getting support at 225 level and the HDIL at 124 level.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
The cut is developing…..
The Nifty is carrying loads of wait on long side despite of global corrections; it could keep the head above deep waters for a better sailing. The major news that dampened the sentiment is the exclusion list of 50 companies from the FO segment from June-09.
In the todays trade the tech majors did not see a deep cut but the HCL tech, NIIT, NIIT Ltd and Rolta lost the ground by10% and more. The mid cap reality sector stocks, media and software stocks that face the threat of exclusion lost nearly 10%.The metals corrected steeply, especially Tata Steel and Ster. The major up moves seen in the smaller names but the Tata Elexi, Bajaj Holdings, LIC housing, Suzlon and Wockpharma deserve worth mentioning.
The up move was capped at this juncture unless the markets get good going tomorrow above 3415-18 level. The Reliance is saving the fall, weak below 1715 level and is good above 1735 but a rally is not visible. The new in RPOWER triggered a rally in the stock but its parent company REL infra made a consolidation but it well rally only if it could stay above 693 levels. The banking stocks in anticipation of the rate cut rallied now easing on the news and may correct steeply if the SBI fails to hold above 1256 level. So tomorrow is crucial for our markets and the global news holds the key.
In the todays trade the tech majors did not see a deep cut but the HCL tech, NIIT, NIIT Ltd and Rolta lost the ground by10% and more. The mid cap reality sector stocks, media and software stocks that face the threat of exclusion lost nearly 10%.The metals corrected steeply, especially Tata Steel and Ster. The major up moves seen in the smaller names but the Tata Elexi, Bajaj Holdings, LIC housing, Suzlon and Wockpharma deserve worth mentioning.
The up move was capped at this juncture unless the markets get good going tomorrow above 3415-18 level. The Reliance is saving the fall, weak below 1715 level and is good above 1735 but a rally is not visible. The new in RPOWER triggered a rally in the stock but its parent company REL infra made a consolidation but it well rally only if it could stay above 693 levels. The banking stocks in anticipation of the rate cut rallied now easing on the news and may correct steeply if the SBI fails to hold above 1256 level. So tomorrow is crucial for our markets and the global news holds the key.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
The fall stopped….
The markets could recover due to RIL, Bharti, ONGC, HDFC, HDFC bank and DLF could place hurdles for a bear run across the board. The markets could recover in the mid session to trade in green but failed to hold the gains in the late session due to profit booking.
The Following scrips covered in my morning
posting:
ICICIBANK 416.35 391.30 398.75
RIL 1733.65 1684.70 1706.10
REL infra 689.50 662 673.85
Rel Cap 522.85 495 507
Nifty 3414.70 3309.35 3365.30
The RED spreads….
The results of TCS are good and the 1:1 bonus is not going to cheer the street as the steep sell off in the US and the Asian markets with a cut more than 3%.
The best days of AXIS banks are yet to come but the Naik resignation will have a deep cut despite the good numbers. The technology major Infosys will starts its southward journey from here to touch 1269-71 level and the bounce is expected for 1211-16.
The suggested levels in my previous posts valid and the bounce bank will happen from such levels. The Nifty will face tough resistance at 3411 level for the time being. The immediate support for today is at 3313-16 and the second support from where a serious bounce expected is at 3265-71 level. This will become a serious cut once it falls below 3250 level.
The Reliance see a deep cut below 1718-21 level and the support for this day at 1665 and at 1654-51 level.
The positive side of yesterday move of REL Infra may find support at 659-61 level and at 649-51 level, below this level serious.
The Relcap is weak below 536 and likely to go below 500 to rest at 496-93 level. The ICICI is also weak below 441-39 level and likely to touch 411 and at 403 the supports are existing but the scrip will dip below 400 and bounce is expected from 381-78 level.
The best days of AXIS banks are yet to come but the Naik resignation will have a deep cut despite the good numbers. The technology major Infosys will starts its southward journey from here to touch 1269-71 level and the bounce is expected for 1211-16.
The suggested levels in my previous posts valid and the bounce bank will happen from such levels. The Nifty will face tough resistance at 3411 level for the time being. The immediate support for today is at 3313-16 and the second support from where a serious bounce expected is at 3265-71 level. This will become a serious cut once it falls below 3250 level.
The Reliance see a deep cut below 1718-21 level and the support for this day at 1665 and at 1654-51 level.
The positive side of yesterday move of REL Infra may find support at 659-61 level and at 649-51 level, below this level serious.
The Relcap is weak below 536 and likely to go below 500 to rest at 496-93 level. The ICICI is also weak below 441-39 level and likely to touch 411 and at 403 the supports are existing but the scrip will dip below 400 and bounce is expected from 381-78 level.
Monday, April 20, 2009
The correction is good….
The correction in the markets is good for the long term investors. The rally was sharp and very few could venture to grab the opportunity. The world economic situation has not improved but the hope that could build on the extreme pessimism when Dow touched the 25 year low below 700 levels. Now such an extreme situation could suddenly emerge as a rally over that lasted for more than 6 consecutive weeks to create a history in US that was not happened in the past 60 years. The strength of extremism of pessimism made a Bear trap and now it can be gauzed with this heavy short covering lead Bull grip over the markets across the globe.
The cool off signs are emerging in all the markets and they are now enjoying the vacation at higher level as consolidation. So our Nifty could again touch 3080-3020 level due to our domestic issues. The confusion over the new government formation gets accelerated as the “third front” will emerge from political turbulence as the polling phases get closer to end by May second week. The tussle for the premier hot seat, the FM Budget and June end quarterly results will clearly provide the right direction to our markets.
For today, the Nifty is strong so long as it trades above 3360 level. The Bulls will gain strength above 3426-35 level but will yield to selling pressure incase Nifty fails to cross 3411-09 initial resistance. The high volatility may reduce and may get support at 3313-11 level, the second support will be at 3280-88 level. The Asian markets are flat with negative bias.
The counters that lost the charm are The RIL and ONGC. The RIL is weak below 1730 and face serious resistance at 1757-1751 level. The RIL will get support at 1665-67.
The ICICI bank is strong above 444-45 level but will become weak below 435 to touch 419-22 support level.
The Rel cap now facing bear pressure gets resistance at 551-49 range and likely to touch 480-475 range. For today it may get support at 491-93 level.
The SBI is showing good support at bottom till yesterday evening failed to hold the ground above 1306-09 level may get support at 1259-56 if it fails trade to trade above 1320 level.
The Rel Infra face resistance at 685-83 level and may find support at 621-23 once it trades below 659-61 level.
The DLF received a series of bottom support at 222-226 level for 4 trading sessions may once again get support.
The cool off signs are emerging in all the markets and they are now enjoying the vacation at higher level as consolidation. So our Nifty could again touch 3080-3020 level due to our domestic issues. The confusion over the new government formation gets accelerated as the “third front” will emerge from political turbulence as the polling phases get closer to end by May second week. The tussle for the premier hot seat, the FM Budget and June end quarterly results will clearly provide the right direction to our markets.
For today, the Nifty is strong so long as it trades above 3360 level. The Bulls will gain strength above 3426-35 level but will yield to selling pressure incase Nifty fails to cross 3411-09 initial resistance. The high volatility may reduce and may get support at 3313-11 level, the second support will be at 3280-88 level. The Asian markets are flat with negative bias.
The counters that lost the charm are The RIL and ONGC. The RIL is weak below 1730 and face serious resistance at 1757-1751 level. The RIL will get support at 1665-67.
The ICICI bank is strong above 444-45 level but will become weak below 435 to touch 419-22 support level.
The Rel cap now facing bear pressure gets resistance at 551-49 range and likely to touch 480-475 range. For today it may get support at 491-93 level.
The SBI is showing good support at bottom till yesterday evening failed to hold the ground above 1306-09 level may get support at 1259-56 if it fails trade to trade above 1320 level.
The Rel Infra face resistance at 685-83 level and may find support at 621-23 once it trades below 659-61 level.
The DLF received a series of bottom support at 222-226 level for 4 trading sessions may once again get support.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Now the time to wait……
The markets are under bull grip with out any doubt. People find different jargons to situations but the ultimate goal in market participation is to make money. The serious investor or the trend follower simple finds way to adjust in the right slot to take the pie worth deserving.
The strength of markets at the bottom and the building process was so excellent that the advancement was like creeping. The retail investors were skeptical to participate in the pessimistic environment. This provided a god sent opportunity to Bull operators to scale to touch new highs. The history is writing on the wall.
The Nifty rallied from 2539 on 6th March to 3511 on 16th April, in 24 trading sessions it rallied nearly 970 points with out any serious set backs.
The fall on 30the was really serious to cover but covered in style to trap the bears. The front line stocks like REL Infra, Rel cap, SBI, Axis bank, RIL LT and many more rose by 50% as the short sellers were seriously trapped. The classic example of retail short covering at the fag end of the day on “Infosys results-15th April” triggered rallyand effortlessly stocks fell on the next day itself.
Now the challenge is to find out the emerging trend. There some stocks that emerged as Bullish in the last 3-4 tradings and the earlier front runners taking a pause in the run up. The stocks like HUL, ITC, Wipro, LT, SBI, Axis bank and to some extent Bharti are exhibiting bullishness.
The RIL, ONGC, GAIL, Rel Infra, R-power, NTPC, DLF, HDIL, T motors, TCS, United spirits and metal majors seems to be buckle to bear pressure.
The short covering stretch can be observed in BHEL, Maruti, T-power and in United Spirits.
The strength of markets at the bottom and the building process was so excellent that the advancement was like creeping. The retail investors were skeptical to participate in the pessimistic environment. This provided a god sent opportunity to Bull operators to scale to touch new highs. The history is writing on the wall.
The Nifty rallied from 2539 on 6th March to 3511 on 16th April, in 24 trading sessions it rallied nearly 970 points with out any serious set backs.
The fall on 30the was really serious to cover but covered in style to trap the bears. The front line stocks like REL Infra, Rel cap, SBI, Axis bank, RIL LT and many more rose by 50% as the short sellers were seriously trapped. The classic example of retail short covering at the fag end of the day on “Infosys results-15th April” triggered rallyand effortlessly stocks fell on the next day itself.
Now the challenge is to find out the emerging trend. There some stocks that emerged as Bullish in the last 3-4 tradings and the earlier front runners taking a pause in the run up. The stocks like HUL, ITC, Wipro, LT, SBI, Axis bank and to some extent Bharti are exhibiting bullishness.
The RIL, ONGC, GAIL, Rel Infra, R-power, NTPC, DLF, HDIL, T motors, TCS, United spirits and metal majors seems to be buckle to bear pressure.
The short covering stretch can be observed in BHEL, Maruti, T-power and in United Spirits.
Thursday, April 09, 2009
Spectacular grip……
The Bulls hold the spectacular grip over the markets and saved the day with de-coupling with the rest of the world. The journey calculators went on counting the points added from the low to the highest but the markets interested to make a new high each time and every time for the last one month.
The correction happened only one day and the rest is internal and intraday. The side lined waiting money woke-up and starts chasing the stocks for now as if we are in a run-up Bull market. The RIIL has again made a 40% gain and the sugar stocks rallied by 15-20%.
The SGX Nifty suggests that the Asian markets are in green with Hang Sang by 1.35% and the Nikkei up by 1.8% and we are likely to open above 3400 with 50-60 points gap up. As suggested in my earlier the Nifty will take a breather here (………The Nifty could be expected to touch 3381-4408 in coming days as the momentum is well in place. The fag end of the run will be fast and surprising.)
The Nifty has good support at 3050 level and very good support at 2960-50 level. The markets rallied enough to cross the hurdles at 3135 and 3280 level. So the fall will become weak and bearish only when Nifty trades below 3000 level. The corrections will be stock specific and the overall markets are in higher orbit.
The Nifty has resistance at 3423 level and the support at 3311-09 and at 3273-71 level.
The Reliance rallied yesterday beyond expectation 1763 and the selling may come at 1787 level. The bottom support will come for today at 1706 and at 1695-91 level. The counter will become weak below 1693 level.
The bear hug counters like BHEL will become very weak below 1495 and it will get short covering if at all only above 1540 level. The other weak counter is Bharti will become weak below 620 level is facing resistance at 670 level. India bulls realest may see some selling pressure above 137-39 level and Rolta will face resistance to cross Rs75-77.
The counters like ICICI which went up on low activity may run up to 393 and to 403-06 level so long it trades above 373 level. It will become weak below 368 level.
The Rel Infra is good above 616 to touch 660 level but will become weak below 603 level. In case the stock shall not trades below 593 will see selling pressure from short sellers and the bull un-winding will accelerate for every 5 rupee fall.
The correction happened only one day and the rest is internal and intraday. The side lined waiting money woke-up and starts chasing the stocks for now as if we are in a run-up Bull market. The RIIL has again made a 40% gain and the sugar stocks rallied by 15-20%.
The SGX Nifty suggests that the Asian markets are in green with Hang Sang by 1.35% and the Nikkei up by 1.8% and we are likely to open above 3400 with 50-60 points gap up. As suggested in my earlier the Nifty will take a breather here (………The Nifty could be expected to touch 3381-4408 in coming days as the momentum is well in place. The fag end of the run will be fast and surprising.)
The Nifty has good support at 3050 level and very good support at 2960-50 level. The markets rallied enough to cross the hurdles at 3135 and 3280 level. So the fall will become weak and bearish only when Nifty trades below 3000 level. The corrections will be stock specific and the overall markets are in higher orbit.
The Nifty has resistance at 3423 level and the support at 3311-09 and at 3273-71 level.
The Reliance rallied yesterday beyond expectation 1763 and the selling may come at 1787 level. The bottom support will come for today at 1706 and at 1695-91 level. The counter will become weak below 1693 level.
The bear hug counters like BHEL will become very weak below 1495 and it will get short covering if at all only above 1540 level. The other weak counter is Bharti will become weak below 620 level is facing resistance at 670 level. India bulls realest may see some selling pressure above 137-39 level and Rolta will face resistance to cross Rs75-77.
The counters like ICICI which went up on low activity may run up to 393 and to 403-06 level so long it trades above 373 level. It will become weak below 368 level.
The Rel Infra is good above 616 to touch 660 level but will become weak below 603 level. In case the stock shall not trades below 593 will see selling pressure from short sellers and the bull un-winding will accelerate for every 5 rupee fall.
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
Correction in the momentum…..?
The markets across the globe are taking a breather in the Bull run initiated 4-weeks back. The Indian markets displayed the much required strength against the bad times when US falling to touch its 25 year lows and participated in the bounce back. Now the real testing time to our markets whether we could de-couple and rise or not?.
The SGXNifty suggests that the Nifty could see a cut of nearly 90 points in the opening. The Asian markets were down and Yester day holiday saved our cut but today Bears exert more pressure on the Bulls to hold the ground above 3150 level. The early morning support may come at 3130 level but the Nifty has support at 3080.
The RIL has the initial support at 1617-23 level and may touch 1594-91 level to bounce sharply above the first support level.
The HDFC the star performer may loose some strength but it is in the Bull grip so long it trades above 1609-1620 has the potential to touch 1945-60 level.
The much roller coaster rider with great swings either side happened on Monday in Rel Infra may yield to selling pressure; get support at 676-73 level and at 666 level. The scrip will rally to 669 level once it trades above 593 after this correction which may trap the bears by touching 532-526 level.
The best out-performers of the recent rally- LT has good support at 720-16 level and get very good support at 701-03 level, the RCOM will get support at 186-188 level, the Bharti is in Bull grip sol long it trade above 617-21 level.
The metal may correct sharply. The Sail likely to touch 93 level, The Tata steel may touch 206-09 level and the Sterlite may touch 345-43 level.
The correction will check the journey when the SBI reaches 1025-35 range, Relcap touches 369-73 range and the ICICI touches 329-324 range.
The SGXNifty suggests that the Nifty could see a cut of nearly 90 points in the opening. The Asian markets were down and Yester day holiday saved our cut but today Bears exert more pressure on the Bulls to hold the ground above 3150 level. The early morning support may come at 3130 level but the Nifty has support at 3080.
The RIL has the initial support at 1617-23 level and may touch 1594-91 level to bounce sharply above the first support level.
The HDFC the star performer may loose some strength but it is in the Bull grip so long it trades above 1609-1620 has the potential to touch 1945-60 level.
The much roller coaster rider with great swings either side happened on Monday in Rel Infra may yield to selling pressure; get support at 676-73 level and at 666 level. The scrip will rally to 669 level once it trades above 593 after this correction which may trap the bears by touching 532-526 level.
The best out-performers of the recent rally- LT has good support at 720-16 level and get very good support at 701-03 level, the RCOM will get support at 186-188 level, the Bharti is in Bull grip sol long it trade above 617-21 level.
The metal may correct sharply. The Sail likely to touch 93 level, The Tata steel may touch 206-09 level and the Sterlite may touch 345-43 level.
The correction will check the journey when the SBI reaches 1025-35 range, Relcap touches 369-73 range and the ICICI touches 329-324 range.
Tuesday, April 07, 2009
The strength displayed…..
The markets showed their positive strength on the back of Asian markets rally. The opening was so bullish but failed to hold on the gains due to the weakness in RIL, SBI, HUL and ITC but closed in positive territory with the help from RCOM, Bharti, LT, HDFC and HDFC bank.
The mid-cap rally is phenomenon be it ESSAR OIL BY 50%, RIIL BY
40%, GITANJALI BY 25%, MRPL & CHENNAI PETRO rose close to 20%. The rally is very sharp and interesting to complete the cycle to squeeze the retail short sellers in the market. These moves will threaten the other dare devils to think of selling in the market even though their calling is right. These pre-empting techniques are useful to the market movers/operators to manage their stocks to their tunes.
The market leader RIL seems exhausted, this can be confirmed when the Reliance fails to trade above 1693 level as the Reliance high made Monday at Rs1742/- is a clear indication of capping at the top. The correction may lead the stock to touch support at 1535-45 range.
The Nifty has first support at 3109-18 level and the second support at 3020-26 level. The Nifty will become weak only when it trades below the second support level. The consequent 3 day lows at 2962-66 level any way come to rescue the Bulls even a deep correction is un-warranted.
The Banking lot will correct sharply by more than 20% in this fall but the resilience to bounce is still inherent.
The mid-cap rally is phenomenon be it ESSAR OIL BY 50%, RIIL BY
40%, GITANJALI BY 25%, MRPL & CHENNAI PETRO rose close to 20%. The rally is very sharp and interesting to complete the cycle to squeeze the retail short sellers in the market. These moves will threaten the other dare devils to think of selling in the market even though their calling is right. These pre-empting techniques are useful to the market movers/operators to manage their stocks to their tunes.
The market leader RIL seems exhausted, this can be confirmed when the Reliance fails to trade above 1693 level as the Reliance high made Monday at Rs1742/- is a clear indication of capping at the top. The correction may lead the stock to touch support at 1535-45 range.
The Nifty has first support at 3109-18 level and the second support at 3020-26 level. The Nifty will become weak only when it trades below the second support level. The consequent 3 day lows at 2962-66 level any way come to rescue the Bulls even a deep correction is un-warranted.
The Banking lot will correct sharply by more than 20% in this fall but the resilience to bounce is still inherent.
Monday, April 06, 2009
The Asian surge….
The Asian markets are trading in green with a positive move up wards by 2.5-3.5% but with an exception of Shanghai Composite in red. The markets are filled with josh that could lead this rally further as the negative data coming is not surprising to the markets as it is used to live with.
The SGX Nifty is suggesting that the Nifty is well above the resistance level at 4265-80 level and currently trading at 4335 with low as 4265. So the markets shall run on its course as the Bulls are hungry for more. The Nifty could be expected to touch 3381-4408 in coming days as the momentum is well in place. The fag end of the run will be fast and surprising.
The good policy is to avoid fresh entry at this level. The Nifty likely to get support at 2935-65 level while coming down can be an etry point. The Nifty built this empire with a classic bottom building process at 2565 level for 3-days and 2740-2773 for 3-days and 2962-66 for 3 consequent days. So even by simple averaging theory suggests that the market has good support at 2775 level.
The Reliance was the first to move the Index has resistance at 1848 level and good support existed at 1535-15 level. The Rel-infra has the potential to touch 609-11 level and likely to touch 669-73 level in coming days so long it stays above 551-53 level.
The Banking giant though lagging the run but has potential to touch 1320 level if it stays above 1060-65 level. The ICICI bank is the most battered stock even in the recent bull-run is running in line with others but with great exhaustion may face resistance at 393 level but can be expected to touch 416-21 level. The stocks like NTPC, HDFC, HUL, Axis Bank and Bharti are becoming hot favourites for Shorting.
The SGX Nifty is suggesting that the Nifty is well above the resistance level at 4265-80 level and currently trading at 4335 with low as 4265. So the markets shall run on its course as the Bulls are hungry for more. The Nifty could be expected to touch 3381-4408 in coming days as the momentum is well in place. The fag end of the run will be fast and surprising.
The good policy is to avoid fresh entry at this level. The Nifty likely to get support at 2935-65 level while coming down can be an etry point. The Nifty built this empire with a classic bottom building process at 2565 level for 3-days and 2740-2773 for 3-days and 2962-66 for 3 consequent days. So even by simple averaging theory suggests that the market has good support at 2775 level.
The Reliance was the first to move the Index has resistance at 1848 level and good support existed at 1535-15 level. The Rel-infra has the potential to touch 609-11 level and likely to touch 669-73 level in coming days so long it stays above 551-53 level.
The Banking giant though lagging the run but has potential to touch 1320 level if it stays above 1060-65 level. The ICICI bank is the most battered stock even in the recent bull-run is running in line with others but with great exhaustion may face resistance at 393 level but can be expected to touch 416-21 level. The stocks like NTPC, HDFC, HUL, Axis Bank and Bharti are becoming hot favourites for Shorting.
Sunday, April 05, 2009
The Rally reached………….
The markets enjoyed the rally despite of all economic bad news and demand contraction at home but on US markets. The global markets were enthused by the US rally because every else country is in a better position the worst effected. Now the news headlines carrying the 17 month old recession is now taking efforts to rise from the lows. The same thing has reflected in their indices.
The dependant emerging markets (third world) countries will now feel the heat as there could be some time lag to face the challenges. Now the real testing times a head to our Indian corporate houses to overcome both the demand contraction at home and shrinking margin abroad. The US will place many restrictions to save their economy and the exporters will face the margin pressure as the Rupee already reached a level. So every 1% of rupee strengthens place the exporters at very disadvantage position. The plant shut downs of the new offshore acquisitions will squeeze the top corporate houses and the interest burden will erode the little earnings made. Now the future for Indian corporate houses is very challenging and so is their market cap.
The Nifty has cross the earlier resistance at 2860 level with ease as it could absorb the selling pressure at 2550-2630 level while the US is testing the Multi-year lows at DOW and NASDAQ. The rally is sharp and the openings wee also above 60-100 points on Nifty at the 3000 level to 3200 level shows the squeeze faced by the short sellers who expected the Nifty to follow US in down turn. This could propel the short covering above 3080 level to test the 3229 level. So is the case with Bank Nifty from 3320 to 4425 level. The stocks gained more than 40 to 80% from their lows in this 700 points Nifty rally triggered on first week end of March to date. The first quarter results and the predictions of the strength of the Third Front will carry the tunes to the market. As of now the Nifty may face resistance at 3280 level and may correct sharply.
The dependant emerging markets (third world) countries will now feel the heat as there could be some time lag to face the challenges. Now the real testing times a head to our Indian corporate houses to overcome both the demand contraction at home and shrinking margin abroad. The US will place many restrictions to save their economy and the exporters will face the margin pressure as the Rupee already reached a level. So every 1% of rupee strengthens place the exporters at very disadvantage position. The plant shut downs of the new offshore acquisitions will squeeze the top corporate houses and the interest burden will erode the little earnings made. Now the future for Indian corporate houses is very challenging and so is their market cap.
The Nifty has cross the earlier resistance at 2860 level with ease as it could absorb the selling pressure at 2550-2630 level while the US is testing the Multi-year lows at DOW and NASDAQ. The rally is sharp and the openings wee also above 60-100 points on Nifty at the 3000 level to 3200 level shows the squeeze faced by the short sellers who expected the Nifty to follow US in down turn. This could propel the short covering above 3080 level to test the 3229 level. So is the case with Bank Nifty from 3320 to 4425 level. The stocks gained more than 40 to 80% from their lows in this 700 points Nifty rally triggered on first week end of March to date. The first quarter results and the predictions of the strength of the Third Front will carry the tunes to the market. As of now the Nifty may face resistance at 3280 level and may correct sharply.
Sunday, March 08, 2009
how far is .....
The extreme side of the market direction from a high of 6357 is the depth of fall one is expecting to stop and at an early date. The effort is to understand and analyse the swings......
The critical analysis shows that the markets are in tail spin fall to a dismal low of 2253.75 on 27-10-2008 from a high of 6357 on 08-01-2009.
The All-time High: 6357 and the All-time Low: 2253
The high to fall 6357 to 4448.50 low registered on 22-01-08 in 10 trading sessions with a fall of 1890 points is the begining........
HIGH : DATE LOW: DATE
6357.00 08-01-08 4448.50 22-01-08
5391.60 29-01-08 5071.15 31-01-08
5545.20 04-02-08 4803.60 11-02-08
5368.45 19-02-08 4620.50 10-03-08
5019.20 12-03-08 4468.55 18-06-08
4970.80 28-03-08 4628.75 16-04-08
5298.95 02-05-08 4913.80 12-05-08
5167.40 16-05-07 4536.25 05-06-08
4626.45 09-06-08 4369.80 10-05-06
4679.75 18-06-08 4093.20 25-06-08
4324.75 26-06-08 3848.25 02-07-08
4114.50 07-07-08 3896.05 08-07-08
4215.50 11-07-08 3790.20 16-07-08
4539.45 24-07-08 4159.15 29-07-08
4615.90 06-08-08 4464.00 08-08-08
4649.45 12-08-09 4248.00 22-08-08
4398.80 25-08-08 4201.85 28-11-08
4522.40 02-09-08 4328.90 05-09-08
4558.00 08-09-08 3919.35 16-09-08
4303.25 22-09-08 3715.05 30-09-08
4000.50 01-10-08 3198.95 10-10-08
3648.25 14-10-08 3046.60 17-10-08
3254.85 21-10-08 2252.75 27-10-08
3240.55 05-11-08 2502.90 20-11-09
2832.85 01-12-08 2570.70 02-12-08
3110.45 22-12-08 2701.75 15-01-09
2868.20 19-01-09 2661.75 23-01-09
2969.75 13-02-09 2539.45 06-03-09
The critical analysis shows that the markets are in tail spin fall to a dismal low of 2253.75 on 27-10-2008 from a high of 6357 on 08-01-2009.
The All-time High: 6357 and the All-time Low: 2253
The high to fall 6357 to 4448.50 low registered on 22-01-08 in 10 trading sessions with a fall of 1890 points is the begining........
HIGH : DATE LOW: DATE
6357.00 08-01-08 4448.50 22-01-08
5391.60 29-01-08 5071.15 31-01-08
5545.20 04-02-08 4803.60 11-02-08
5368.45 19-02-08 4620.50 10-03-08
5019.20 12-03-08 4468.55 18-06-08
4970.80 28-03-08 4628.75 16-04-08
5298.95 02-05-08 4913.80 12-05-08
5167.40 16-05-07 4536.25 05-06-08
4626.45 09-06-08 4369.80 10-05-06
4679.75 18-06-08 4093.20 25-06-08
4324.75 26-06-08 3848.25 02-07-08
4114.50 07-07-08 3896.05 08-07-08
4215.50 11-07-08 3790.20 16-07-08
4539.45 24-07-08 4159.15 29-07-08
4615.90 06-08-08 4464.00 08-08-08
4649.45 12-08-09 4248.00 22-08-08
4398.80 25-08-08 4201.85 28-11-08
4522.40 02-09-08 4328.90 05-09-08
4558.00 08-09-08 3919.35 16-09-08
4303.25 22-09-08 3715.05 30-09-08
4000.50 01-10-08 3198.95 10-10-08
3648.25 14-10-08 3046.60 17-10-08
3254.85 21-10-08 2252.75 27-10-08
3240.55 05-11-08 2502.90 20-11-09
2832.85 01-12-08 2570.70 02-12-08
3110.45 22-12-08 2701.75 15-01-09
2868.20 19-01-09 2661.75 23-01-09
2969.75 13-02-09 2539.45 06-03-09
Thursday, March 05, 2009
SENSEX below 3 year low…
The regular readers might have understood the supports and resistance levels and how they works. The Nifty is still a out-performer when it compared with the rest but the outflow of money due to the global giant financial institutions crumbling performance cast a shadow on our banking sector and on markets.The SENSEX is below 3 year low, where as the inflation was at 2002
levels.
In my earlier post it was mentioned the Reliance levels and the ONGC today the RIL high at 1220 and low at 1142 level and the ONGC took support at 637 . The Nifty took support at 2564 but it did not tried to cross the 2680 at time.
Now the markets are under severe selling pressure that to delivery based selling by institutions forcing the markets down. The Asian markets are ok and the yesterday cue from Europe and US also good but we did not follow them just because now a days we are a head of them…leading them.
Wednesday, March 04, 2009
Against all odds.......
The 12 year low of DOW in US and the free fall in Europe due to the financial sector fall out did not effected Nifty but forced mourning was inevitable to express and act in line with them. The markets took all pains to stay above 2700 despite of meltdown in US and other European markets for some time and till yester day the lower supports were protected at 2650 level.
The Nifty now has to trade above 2740 level to avoid the debacle. In my earlier posting clearly mentioned the momentum loss in heavy weight despite the Nifty moving up to cross the 2930 hurdle. The RIL, ONGC and NTPC managed the show.
The challenge now is to see the quick recovery from the lows. The Nifty has to move above 2680 level to absorb the selling pressure without violating the immediate support at 2550. The RIL suddenly crumbled in late hour of trade below 1220 to touch a low of 1175 is the cause of concern.
The Asian markets are in green especially the China and the recovery in US failed to hold till closing in US is not a good sign. The SGX Nifty suggests a flat opening, today the Nifty may face resistance at 2741-43 level may get support at 2584-79 level and next at 2550 level. The Reliance may face resistance at 1221-1218 level and will become weak below 1191 level may get support at 1146-51 level. The ONGC may face resistance at 663-66 level may get support at 642-39 level.
The severely beaten Rel Infra may face resistance at 451 level may get support at 426 level and next at 421 level, in case it fails to cross the 441 it may test 401-396 level in next two days.
The ICICI may face resistance at 311-08 level may get support at 281and level two support may emerge at 373. The Relcap may face resistance at 331-33 level.
In my earlier posting suggested that the Bharti may see steep fall if it trades below 639 support level touched 594.
The Nifty now has to trade above 2740 level to avoid the debacle. In my earlier posting clearly mentioned the momentum loss in heavy weight despite the Nifty moving up to cross the 2930 hurdle. The RIL, ONGC and NTPC managed the show.
The challenge now is to see the quick recovery from the lows. The Nifty has to move above 2680 level to absorb the selling pressure without violating the immediate support at 2550. The RIL suddenly crumbled in late hour of trade below 1220 to touch a low of 1175 is the cause of concern.
The Asian markets are in green especially the China and the recovery in US failed to hold till closing in US is not a good sign. The SGX Nifty suggests a flat opening, today the Nifty may face resistance at 2741-43 level may get support at 2584-79 level and next at 2550 level. The Reliance may face resistance at 1221-1218 level and will become weak below 1191 level may get support at 1146-51 level. The ONGC may face resistance at 663-66 level may get support at 642-39 level.
The severely beaten Rel Infra may face resistance at 451 level may get support at 426 level and next at 421 level, in case it fails to cross the 441 it may test 401-396 level in next two days.
The ICICI may face resistance at 311-08 level may get support at 281and level two support may emerge at 373. The Relcap may face resistance at 331-33 level.
In my earlier posting suggested that the Bharti may see steep fall if it trades below 639 support level touched 594.
Friday, February 20, 2009
The US falls out….
The markets across the globe are in a queue to accept the US markets decision as DOW falls to 6-year lows. The Nifty is holding above 2735 could be a challenge as the global concern has worsen than expected. The Nifty at home was down by Budget sentiment and followed by the US concern could hold for two days above 2750. The recovery in RIL is very important as the Banking sector lost more than 15% in some stocks and around 10% in most of the heavy weights despite the expectation of rate cut on the cards.
The stocks like GE shipping moved up from 187 to 225 levels now back to square. The ICICI from 360 levels to 440 levels now back to 360 levels. The effort made to move was used to exit is the main problem in the markets. The HNIs, MFs and FIIs have little conviction that the world economy will recover soon so is the Indian economy.
The Nifty is good above 2803 as Reliance good above 1306. The markets today may not hold above 2780 level cold test 2704 level first and the better support exists at 2680 level. The volumes were dried up and the trading has been confined to limited stocks with high degree of volatility based on news/expectations.
Today Nifty may face resistance at 2793 level may get support at 2724-29 level and next at 2703-05 level. The Reliance may face resistance at 1301-1298 level and will become weak below 1281 level may get support at 1246 level and next at 1238 level. The ONGC may face resistance at 683-86 level may get support at 662 level and next at 651-53 level. The Rel Infra may face resistance at 516 level may get support at 486 level and next at 473-71 level where the recent bottom support exists.
The ICICI may face resistance at 373-75 level may get support at 341-42level. The Relcap may face resistance at 381-83 level may get support at 359-57 level. The Bharti which built huge open interest at 640 CA may see steep fall if it trades below 639 support level. The BHEL is facing resistance above 1410-12 level may correct steeply if it closes below 1350 level.
The Asian Markets are trading in red with nearly1.5 - 2% cut and the ADRs were not deeply cut. The SGX Nifty is trading at 2740 level down by 52 points. The challenge now is to recover from the lows. In case the Govt willing to provide easy liquidity situation by signaling RBI to cut the CRR and Repo rate cuts to spur the local demand as the inflation is totally under control may save our markets, other wise the markets next broad range will be in a range of 2830-2420 for next quarter.
The stocks like GE shipping moved up from 187 to 225 levels now back to square. The ICICI from 360 levels to 440 levels now back to 360 levels. The effort made to move was used to exit is the main problem in the markets. The HNIs, MFs and FIIs have little conviction that the world economy will recover soon so is the Indian economy.
The Nifty is good above 2803 as Reliance good above 1306. The markets today may not hold above 2780 level cold test 2704 level first and the better support exists at 2680 level. The volumes were dried up and the trading has been confined to limited stocks with high degree of volatility based on news/expectations.
Today Nifty may face resistance at 2793 level may get support at 2724-29 level and next at 2703-05 level. The Reliance may face resistance at 1301-1298 level and will become weak below 1281 level may get support at 1246 level and next at 1238 level. The ONGC may face resistance at 683-86 level may get support at 662 level and next at 651-53 level. The Rel Infra may face resistance at 516 level may get support at 486 level and next at 473-71 level where the recent bottom support exists.
The ICICI may face resistance at 373-75 level may get support at 341-42level. The Relcap may face resistance at 381-83 level may get support at 359-57 level. The Bharti which built huge open interest at 640 CA may see steep fall if it trades below 639 support level. The BHEL is facing resistance above 1410-12 level may correct steeply if it closes below 1350 level.
The Asian Markets are trading in red with nearly1.5 - 2% cut and the ADRs were not deeply cut. The SGX Nifty is trading at 2740 level down by 52 points. The challenge now is to recover from the lows. In case the Govt willing to provide easy liquidity situation by signaling RBI to cut the CRR and Repo rate cuts to spur the local demand as the inflation is totally under control may save our markets, other wise the markets next broad range will be in a range of 2830-2420 for next quarter.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
The determined bulls…..
The Nifty though weak by its level it didn’t let the Bears to take ride across the board. The Asian markets were weak and weak global cues did not help the Bears much to have a run as they wish but the Bull made their best effort to save the territory.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: As suggested in the morning post, Nifty could display its strength with a positive picture despite of weak global cues but tried to post nearly +36 points at one point in time. The Nifty made a come back to show a green close from a low of 2736 to touch a high of 2806.85 before closing at 2776.15
The Reliance took support at the first support level at 1240. The ONGC could not cross the 690 level as the high made was at 689.80
The ICICI high did not crossed but came to 365 low, expected 368 level. The Relcap high touched at 387.80 low touched 371.35. The Rel infra in the morning it could trade above 521 level and 17 lakhs traded above that level and the minute it fell below the 511 support level first touché at 496 later after a recovery to 516 then fell back to 493.35 as expected.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: As suggested in the morning post, Nifty could display its strength with a positive picture despite of weak global cues but tried to post nearly +36 points at one point in time. The Nifty made a come back to show a green close from a low of 2736 to touch a high of 2806.85 before closing at 2776.15
The Reliance took support at the first support level at 1240. The ONGC could not cross the 690 level as the high made was at 689.80
The ICICI high did not crossed but came to 365 low, expected 368 level. The Relcap high touched at 387.80 low touched 371.35. The Rel infra in the morning it could trade above 521 level and 17 lakhs traded above that level and the minute it fell below the 511 support level first touché at 496 later after a recovery to 516 then fell back to 493.35 as expected.
The inevitable…..
The Nifty is facing serious threat while moving up due to the US heading to deep recession that could not be saved with Obama package. The treat is that the IT outsourcing companies may face the difficulties as well the exporters.
The Nifty is down from a high of 2970 to 2757 in two days as it fell on 7th Jan from 3150 level 2750 in three days and that registered high was not crossed till date despite many global favourable news and rallies.
It seems that the US DOW likely to breach the Nov-lows but we may go close to 2500 level but the lows registered will not be breached so long we trade above 2550 level. The markets are weak to move but they are strong at the bottom as bottom fishing is seen in the heavy weights.
Today the Nifty has to cross the 2810 level in the intra day movement to exhibit its strength for future. The Nifty is weak below 2835 level and may get support first at 2685 level and next at 2650 level. The ONGC is good above 690 level and may get support at 650 level, it will become weak it breaches the immediate major support at 630-625 level. The Reliance has rallied from 1065 to 1405 lost nearly half to touch 1258 could get support first at 1236-39 level and the immediate good support seen at 1221-23 level. The ICICI is good above 389 and weak below 381 to touch 371 and 368 range from where the earlier move started. The Rel infra is good above 521-23 level weak below 511-09 to touch 493 and next at 486. The Relcap is weak below 386 level to touch the earlier support at 361-63 level.The issue of pledged shares demanding additional margin will effect the prices once the drop below by 20% to the recent supports.
The Asian markets are trading in red due to the spill over effect of US. The SGX-Nifty was down by nearly 33 points at 2723 level.
The Nifty is down from a high of 2970 to 2757 in two days as it fell on 7th Jan from 3150 level 2750 in three days and that registered high was not crossed till date despite many global favourable news and rallies.
It seems that the US DOW likely to breach the Nov-lows but we may go close to 2500 level but the lows registered will not be breached so long we trade above 2550 level. The markets are weak to move but they are strong at the bottom as bottom fishing is seen in the heavy weights.
Today the Nifty has to cross the 2810 level in the intra day movement to exhibit its strength for future. The Nifty is weak below 2835 level and may get support first at 2685 level and next at 2650 level. The ONGC is good above 690 level and may get support at 650 level, it will become weak it breaches the immediate major support at 630-625 level. The Reliance has rallied from 1065 to 1405 lost nearly half to touch 1258 could get support first at 1236-39 level and the immediate good support seen at 1221-23 level. The ICICI is good above 389 and weak below 381 to touch 371 and 368 range from where the earlier move started. The Rel infra is good above 521-23 level weak below 511-09 to touch 493 and next at 486. The Relcap is weak below 386 level to touch the earlier support at 361-63 level.The issue of pledged shares demanding additional margin will effect the prices once the drop below by 20% to the recent supports.
The Asian markets are trading in red due to the spill over effect of US. The SGX-Nifty was down by nearly 33 points at 2723 level.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
The belied hopes……..
The Nifty has taken severe Bear beating due to weak global cues and the down turn in the Asian markets. The belied expectations of the markets pushed hard to un-wind the long positions built over the fortnight. This could be the major reason for the Nifty heavy weights opened below yesterday lows.
The news flow is also no good to help the Bulls to hang on their positions. The Europe melts down by 3%and the US is bleeding. In case the US fails to recover at least 2% from the bottom then our markets likely to crumble on its weight.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
As posted in the morning, the Nifty took support at 2757 and the high registered at 2855 (2857-62high and low at 2750)
The Reliance took support at took support at 1258.20 and the high touched at 1307. The ONGC high 689.4and the low touched at Rs 670.0.The ICICI bank though touched high at 438.8 but it did not cross 405 at any point but touched a low at 380.20. The RelInfra has got support at 507.65 touched a high at 528.8
The news flow is also no good to help the Bulls to hang on their positions. The Europe melts down by 3%and the US is bleeding. In case the US fails to recover at least 2% from the bottom then our markets likely to crumble on its weight.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
As posted in the morning, the Nifty took support at 2757 and the high registered at 2855 (2857-62high and low at 2750)
The Reliance took support at took support at 1258.20 and the high touched at 1307. The ONGC high 689.4and the low touched at Rs 670.0.The ICICI bank though touched high at 438.8 but it did not cross 405 at any point but touched a low at 380.20. The RelInfra has got support at 507.65 touched a high at 528.8
The “LONGS” unwinding…..
The interim budget has everything for the forth coming elections but not for the industry. It is more so for the stock markets. How can we expect fire works from a Govt that faces elections with in 3 months?. The rumors were spread to attract retail positions building in longs and the HNI/operator building on the other side to make some quick money in a week. It is very unlikely that a retailer build against position.
The Nifty was at same closing level when a comparison made with a week back levels show that the stocks in F&O sector are still in the positive territory despite of the Nifty falls by100 points. The Nifty has built solid foundation of bottom building at 2660-90 for 5 consecutive days and at 2750-80 for 6 consecutive trading days. So the is very likely to get support at these levels. The recent top for Nifty was capped at 2926-69 level for 6 trading days.
As the home bound down trend, Erope weakness and the current melt down of Asian markets may put pressure in the opening. If we take a cue from the SGX-Nifty down by nearly 30 points may trigger more unwinding. The Nifty for this day could face resistance at 2857-62 level. The support is likely to emerge at 2780 and at 2750 level. The RIL is good for long only when it trades above 1375-73 level. The RIL will become weak if it trades below 1260 level. But it may face resistance at 1351-53 level for today and the bottom support first at 1291-93 level and further fall may take it to 1271 level.
The ICICI took support at 406 level which I wrote in my earlier posts (……..that The banking sector build decent bottom building can trigger a rally of 10-15% from the current levels. …………The Nifty has the potential to touch 2930 level has bottom support at 2780 level and is good for Bull so long it trades above 2813-15 level. The RIL can cross 1375 has bottom support and good above 1321 level. The ICICI can touch 418 level and good above 406. The Infosys has resistance at 1315-20 region and support at 1236-42 regions………..).The Relcap took support at 396 level and SBI above 1126 level. Now the triggers for this sector are lacking but a ray of hope still alive as RBI expected to go for a rate cut soon. The RBI may announce at least 50bps rate cut in CRR to infuse more liquidity in the system after the announcement of inflation figures on Thursday.
The ONGC is weak below 694 and good above 705, ICICI may face resistance at 416-18 level and good above 429 only. The bottom support may emerge at 391-88 level. The Rel infra is good above 546 weak below 539 and the bottom support first at 505 and at 496 level.
The Nifty was at same closing level when a comparison made with a week back levels show that the stocks in F&O sector are still in the positive territory despite of the Nifty falls by100 points. The Nifty has built solid foundation of bottom building at 2660-90 for 5 consecutive days and at 2750-80 for 6 consecutive trading days. So the is very likely to get support at these levels. The recent top for Nifty was capped at 2926-69 level for 6 trading days.
As the home bound down trend, Erope weakness and the current melt down of Asian markets may put pressure in the opening. If we take a cue from the SGX-Nifty down by nearly 30 points may trigger more unwinding. The Nifty for this day could face resistance at 2857-62 level. The support is likely to emerge at 2780 and at 2750 level. The RIL is good for long only when it trades above 1375-73 level. The RIL will become weak if it trades below 1260 level. But it may face resistance at 1351-53 level for today and the bottom support first at 1291-93 level and further fall may take it to 1271 level.
The ICICI took support at 406 level which I wrote in my earlier posts (……..that The banking sector build decent bottom building can trigger a rally of 10-15% from the current levels. …………The Nifty has the potential to touch 2930 level has bottom support at 2780 level and is good for Bull so long it trades above 2813-15 level. The RIL can cross 1375 has bottom support and good above 1321 level. The ICICI can touch 418 level and good above 406. The Infosys has resistance at 1315-20 region and support at 1236-42 regions………..).The Relcap took support at 396 level and SBI above 1126 level. Now the triggers for this sector are lacking but a ray of hope still alive as RBI expected to go for a rate cut soon. The RBI may announce at least 50bps rate cut in CRR to infuse more liquidity in the system after the announcement of inflation figures on Thursday.
The ONGC is weak below 694 and good above 705, ICICI may face resistance at 416-18 level and good above 429 only. The bottom support may emerge at 391-88 level. The Rel infra is good above 546 weak below 539 and the bottom support first at 505 and at 496 level.
Friday, February 13, 2009
The strength displayed……
The markets displayed the much needed strength despite the global pressures. The Nifty could hold above the 2886 level and the bottom support has not violated yet.
The bottom building process for the Nifty and for the important stocks like ONGC, ICICI, RELCAP, BHARTI, RCOM,HDFC HDFC Bank and may other. Now the strength was weakened due to RIL underperformance. Unless RIL trades above 1493 the Nifty could head no where. The markets are hoping to get support from RBI for rate cuts and stimulus package from GOI.
The Railway package can influence today before the interim budget on Monday.
The Nifty is strong above 2915 and weak below 2893, RIL is good above 1391 weak below 1381, ONGC is good above 706 and weak below 694, Infosys is weak below 1304 and weak below 1289, ICICI is weak below 411 and good above 421-23, Relcap is good above 426 and weak below 416 level.
The bottom building process for the Nifty and for the important stocks like ONGC, ICICI, RELCAP, BHARTI, RCOM,HDFC HDFC Bank and may other. Now the strength was weakened due to RIL underperformance. Unless RIL trades above 1493 the Nifty could head no where. The markets are hoping to get support from RBI for rate cuts and stimulus package from GOI.
The Railway package can influence today before the interim budget on Monday.
The Nifty is strong above 2915 and weak below 2893, RIL is good above 1391 weak below 1381, ONGC is good above 706 and weak below 694, Infosys is weak below 1304 and weak below 1289, ICICI is weak below 411 and good above 421-23, Relcap is good above 426 and weak below 416 level.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
The Asian drag….
The Asian markets are in no good mood to move up can spread their shadow on our markets. The Nifty is good above 2915 level and has resistance above 2950 level.
The RIL may face resistance at 1405-08 level and will become weak below 1383 level to touch a low at 1341-43 level. The ONGC one of the leading counters of Nifty has suddenly got support with the 1200 cr IT case facing resistance at 720 level will become weak below 693 level will touch 671-73 level. The immediate support levels will hold as the markets are enjoying the Bulls support.
The two days consequent bear hammering on Relinfra right from the 593-96 level brought it down to 527 level could recover to 542 level. The scrip shall not trade below 511-14. The markets may re-rate RIL and the fertilizer companies with the gas supply.
Yesterday star performers like ICICI and Relcap may continue to get Bulls support. The ICICI is good above 421 levels but it has resistance at 447-46 level. The Relcap has resistance at 432-35 region but is good above 411.
The beaten down stocks made good recovery, be it ZEE, EDUCOM or MC-DOWELL. Yesterday ZEE lost nearly all the gain made in the previous session.
The RIL may face resistance at 1405-08 level and will become weak below 1383 level to touch a low at 1341-43 level. The ONGC one of the leading counters of Nifty has suddenly got support with the 1200 cr IT case facing resistance at 720 level will become weak below 693 level will touch 671-73 level. The immediate support levels will hold as the markets are enjoying the Bulls support.
The two days consequent bear hammering on Relinfra right from the 593-96 level brought it down to 527 level could recover to 542 level. The scrip shall not trade below 511-14. The markets may re-rate RIL and the fertilizer companies with the gas supply.
Yesterday star performers like ICICI and Relcap may continue to get Bulls support. The ICICI is good above 421 levels but it has resistance at 447-46 level. The Relcap has resistance at 432-35 region but is good above 411.
The beaten down stocks made good recovery, be it ZEE, EDUCOM or MC-DOWELL. Yesterday ZEE lost nearly all the gain made in the previous session.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
The holding is ……….
The Nifty is fighting against all odds to stay afloat above 2900 level despite of the global pressures, enthused Bears are pulling down but managing to close above 2918 is a good sign to out-perform in future.
The day was saved by the Banking giants along with the telecom leaders as the FDI norms eased. The strength in the market to cross the 2955 level was at cross roads for sure as the heavy weights like LT, Bharti, NTPC, HDFC, HDFC bank, RIL and ONGC are fully saturated for now but the momentum in ICICI and Relcap with support from the reality gainst saved the day. Now it looks difficult for the Nifty to trade above 2955 level unless RIL trades above 1405 and ONGC above 720.
The news flow was lean to support the long waited but initiated bull move to take a momentum journey to scale above 3050 level. The Obama package has value but the most needed immediate triggers for the market lies in US consumer spending and rescuing the banks from the ill-liquid assets. At home the Govt interim budget shall focus on the Govt. spending on infra-structure/allocation and providing liquidity in the system.
The day was saved by the Banking giants along with the telecom leaders as the FDI norms eased. The strength in the market to cross the 2955 level was at cross roads for sure as the heavy weights like LT, Bharti, NTPC, HDFC, HDFC bank, RIL and ONGC are fully saturated for now but the momentum in ICICI and Relcap with support from the reality gainst saved the day. Now it looks difficult for the Nifty to trade above 2955 level unless RIL trades above 1405 and ONGC above 720.
The news flow was lean to support the long waited but initiated bull move to take a momentum journey to scale above 3050 level. The Obama package has value but the most needed immediate triggers for the market lies in US consumer spending and rescuing the banks from the ill-liquid assets. At home the Govt interim budget shall focus on the Govt. spending on infra-structure/allocation and providing liquidity in the system.
Monday, February 09, 2009
The best to cross…..
The Friday rally in US markets shall trigger rally in our markets as well. The Asian markets are also taking cues from the US trading in green with 1-2% gains. The opening can be in green but the afternoon holding on higher levels will determine the upward movement of the Nifty.
The Nifty has shown its first signs of revival to move upwards were shown in the last Friday on 30th Jan but failed to hold on the gains to gain momentum due to tiredness in buying interest as no global cues supported. The Nifty made a high of 2881 on 30th Jan either crossed or the closing was made below the low of 2750 level. The whole week was maintained between these 150 points.
Now once again the Nifty made a reattempt to close above 2835 level. The strengths were drawn from the heavy weights like RIL, ONGC, NTPC, HUL and Infosys along with renewed buying interest in metal pack and the bottom support to IT and Banking sector pushed the Nifty upward.
The bullishness in the RIL came to a resistance level unless it closes above 1375 level. The banking sector build decent bottom building can trigger a rally of 10-15% from the current levels. The ADRs rally though gives some relief to techs but the US policies dampen the interest in these counters.
The Nifty has the potential to touch 2930 level has bottom support at 2780 level and is good for Bull so long it trades above 2813-15 level. The RIL can cross 1375 has bottom support and good above 1321 level. The ICICI can touch 418 level and good above 406. The Infosys has resistance at 1315-20 region and support at 1236-42 regions. The metals especially the ferrous sector has bright future as the infrastructure spending especially in sea ports and airports will get further boost.
The Nifty has shown its first signs of revival to move upwards were shown in the last Friday on 30th Jan but failed to hold on the gains to gain momentum due to tiredness in buying interest as no global cues supported. The Nifty made a high of 2881 on 30th Jan either crossed or the closing was made below the low of 2750 level. The whole week was maintained between these 150 points.
Now once again the Nifty made a reattempt to close above 2835 level. The strengths were drawn from the heavy weights like RIL, ONGC, NTPC, HUL and Infosys along with renewed buying interest in metal pack and the bottom support to IT and Banking sector pushed the Nifty upward.
The bullishness in the RIL came to a resistance level unless it closes above 1375 level. The banking sector build decent bottom building can trigger a rally of 10-15% from the current levels. The ADRs rally though gives some relief to techs but the US policies dampen the interest in these counters.
The Nifty has the potential to touch 2930 level has bottom support at 2780 level and is good for Bull so long it trades above 2813-15 level. The RIL can cross 1375 has bottom support and good above 1321 level. The ICICI can touch 418 level and good above 406. The Infosys has resistance at 1315-20 region and support at 1236-42 regions. The metals especially the ferrous sector has bright future as the infrastructure spending especially in sea ports and airports will get further boost.
Sunday, February 08, 2009
The hope beneath …..
The markets are expecting some miracle to save from the grave situation. The fast deterioration of the confidence at the future is the main concern. This is more worrying in India than in US. The world has accepted the fact that the US is in recession that to in deep but the un conventional accenting facts that are fast emerging is that the future of the emerging markets are also becoming bleak.
The Indian authorities are confident that the growth rate is at 7% but the fall in the commodities and the real estate sector is hurting the investment proposals. The auto sector is reeling under demand contraction is a classic example of slow down in economy. When there is slow down in goods vehicles is that there is less produce to transport and no demand to export or import.
The no industry not impacted by the demand slow down but the positive signs of price movement can be felt in the same transport sector- the rise in the prices of GE Shipping, SCI, Maruti, Hero Honda and the slight up ward movement in the commodity sectors- ACC, Grasim, Ultra tech, Sail, and in Tata steel are the early signs of knowlegible HNI-people/sources entering to garner the large chunk at deep discount.
The pure technicals show that the markets are at no where movement but the violence is deep during the intraday isnot a good sign for an early Bull move. The bears are determined to short at every rise is helpful to scale new highs in a Bull market is a detrimental force while the markets are finding secured bottom to build an up move. But the fact of the life is that these forces strengthen if the markets can stand against the storm.
The Nifty could build a bottom at 2665-85 level in the early part between 21st -27th Jan and then at 2750-2780 level between 28th to 6th Feb-09. During this process the Nifty did not make any trail to cross the 2880 level on closing basis. Incase Nifty can close above the important resistance level due to the positive global cues then it could easily touch the 3050 level.
The Indian authorities are confident that the growth rate is at 7% but the fall in the commodities and the real estate sector is hurting the investment proposals. The auto sector is reeling under demand contraction is a classic example of slow down in economy. When there is slow down in goods vehicles is that there is less produce to transport and no demand to export or import.
The no industry not impacted by the demand slow down but the positive signs of price movement can be felt in the same transport sector- the rise in the prices of GE Shipping, SCI, Maruti, Hero Honda and the slight up ward movement in the commodity sectors- ACC, Grasim, Ultra tech, Sail, and in Tata steel are the early signs of knowlegible HNI-people/sources entering to garner the large chunk at deep discount.
The pure technicals show that the markets are at no where movement but the violence is deep during the intraday isnot a good sign for an early Bull move. The bears are determined to short at every rise is helpful to scale new highs in a Bull market is a detrimental force while the markets are finding secured bottom to build an up move. But the fact of the life is that these forces strengthen if the markets can stand against the storm.
The Nifty could build a bottom at 2665-85 level in the early part between 21st -27th Jan and then at 2750-2780 level between 28th to 6th Feb-09. During this process the Nifty did not make any trail to cross the 2880 level on closing basis. Incase Nifty can close above the important resistance level due to the positive global cues then it could easily touch the 3050 level.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
The symmetry and possibility….
The stock market is the best approved place where the history is well recognized to predict the future. The technical analysts are interested to extrapolate with an extension/drawn forward to predict the future based on the past. So the stock market predictors rely on the past and believe that the past is filled with vigor to reap profits in future. To draw a conclusion on the matter I want to go to a thumb rule to read the future performance.The possibility ofa repetition to make right symmetry could be possible at Nifty.
The Nifty was at around 6357 level in first week of Jan-08 and fell from the top to touch a low of 4468 level in the middle of March-08. A fall of nearly 1890 points from the top is nearly 30% of the registered high. Then the market took some oscillation till it reaches 5298 in the first week of May with 830 points rise is exactly 50% of the fall.The Nifty again fell from 5298 level to 4392 level to wipe out all the gains made earlier but took some support at the earlier lows that could propel Nifty to bounce in 5-6 trading days to touch a high of 4680 level which is again 30% rise.
The relentless steep fall from the 4680 level to 3848 by first week of July made a knock blow. The Nifty meltdown could wipe out the dreams of Bulls as it was earlier thought as a “BULL market correction”. The fall is again 30% from the top of 5298 level to 3848 level. The Nifty took support from this disastrous level to touch a high of 4215 but fell to 3926 level formed as a double bottom. The Nifty gained some strength to touch a high of 4650 level in the middle of August-08. This rise is exactly 505 of the second fall that triggered from 5298.
The third leg of the fall from the top took when the Nifty touched a high of 4650 level to touch a bottom of 3799 but again bounced as if the support existed at 3800 level to touch a level of 4303 level in 3 days but collapsed to a bottom level at 3199 level, bounced to 3650 in 3 days and continued the fall as extended leg to touch the lowest point till date at 2252 in the last week of October. This carnage in the Indian stock markets can be collaborated to a massacre and this relentless fall from the top to bottom is correlates to 63-65 % fall.
The beauty of the recent rise from 2252 to 3147 level is finding a place as a bounce back of the fall from 4650 then there is one more steep correction……………………..
………..then the top for this possible correction be at 3147 level. If the same logic will drag the Nifty to 1940-60 level ??????????????????????
The Nifty was at around 6357 level in first week of Jan-08 and fell from the top to touch a low of 4468 level in the middle of March-08. A fall of nearly 1890 points from the top is nearly 30% of the registered high. Then the market took some oscillation till it reaches 5298 in the first week of May with 830 points rise is exactly 50% of the fall.The Nifty again fell from 5298 level to 4392 level to wipe out all the gains made earlier but took some support at the earlier lows that could propel Nifty to bounce in 5-6 trading days to touch a high of 4680 level which is again 30% rise.
The relentless steep fall from the 4680 level to 3848 by first week of July made a knock blow. The Nifty meltdown could wipe out the dreams of Bulls as it was earlier thought as a “BULL market correction”. The fall is again 30% from the top of 5298 level to 3848 level. The Nifty took support from this disastrous level to touch a high of 4215 but fell to 3926 level formed as a double bottom. The Nifty gained some strength to touch a high of 4650 level in the middle of August-08. This rise is exactly 505 of the second fall that triggered from 5298.
The third leg of the fall from the top took when the Nifty touched a high of 4650 level to touch a bottom of 3799 but again bounced as if the support existed at 3800 level to touch a level of 4303 level in 3 days but collapsed to a bottom level at 3199 level, bounced to 3650 in 3 days and continued the fall as extended leg to touch the lowest point till date at 2252 in the last week of October. This carnage in the Indian stock markets can be collaborated to a massacre and this relentless fall from the top to bottom is correlates to 63-65 % fall.
The beauty of the recent rise from 2252 to 3147 level is finding a place as a bounce back of the fall from 4650 then there is one more steep correction……………………..
………..then the top for this possible correction be at 3147 level. If the same logic will drag the Nifty to 1940-60 level ??????????????????????
The foundations…..
The laid down foundations for the Nifty are strong if could rise to see better heights. The strength of Nifty at the 2700-2750 is displayed well but cap at the top at 100-150 points above is worrisome.
As the previous post mentioned the Nifty made a recovery to cross the resistance at 2830 level touched a high 2835.65 and comfortably closed above 2790 level at 2828.45 is a good relief sign that the bottoms are in tact at least for now. But on the contrary side the FIIs are buying since 12th in selective stock futures (373+566+371+207-26 crores) where as they are heavy short in Index futures ((-408) + (-1444) + (-470) + (-303) + (-1017)) shows that the Nifty future out look is bleak.
The Reliance lead rally to pull from the lows shall spread to other counters. The mush hyped Obama bail-out cum stimulus package can trigger rally in US may have spill over effect. The hope on US is high despite of the crumbling economy as the troubles keep darker nights long.
The important results are a head in the next week to influence the direction as their leadership lays future road map of Nifty- ITC, Rolta ,Triveni, TTML- 19th Monday.
The results of Dr Reddy, HeroHonda, MRPL, Mahidra life, Polaris, RPL and Relcap on 20th Tuesday .
The results of Biocon, HDFC, United spirits, Wipro , Yes bank and Zeel on 21st Wednesday,
The results of Bank of India, Bharti airtel, Bharat forge, Cipla, Idea, Kotak bank, NDTV, Praj, Reliance, Rel Infra, Relpower, and Voltas on 22nd Thursday.
The results of Canara Bank, Crompton Greaves, HCL Tech, IDBI, Punj Lloyd, RCOM, RNRL, Syndicate Bank ,Tanla and Tech Mahidra and Vijaya Bank on 23rdFriday .
The results of important companies like ICICI bank, NTPC, SBI, SCI, Sterlite, Sun will be announced on 24th, Saturday where as the hind Unilever on Sunday.
As the previous post mentioned the Nifty made a recovery to cross the resistance at 2830 level touched a high 2835.65 and comfortably closed above 2790 level at 2828.45 is a good relief sign that the bottoms are in tact at least for now. But on the contrary side the FIIs are buying since 12th in selective stock futures (373+566+371+207-26 crores) where as they are heavy short in Index futures ((-408) + (-1444) + (-470) + (-303) + (-1017)) shows that the Nifty future out look is bleak.
The Reliance lead rally to pull from the lows shall spread to other counters. The mush hyped Obama bail-out cum stimulus package can trigger rally in US may have spill over effect. The hope on US is high despite of the crumbling economy as the troubles keep darker nights long.
The important results are a head in the next week to influence the direction as their leadership lays future road map of Nifty- ITC, Rolta ,Triveni, TTML- 19th Monday.
The results of Dr Reddy, HeroHonda, MRPL, Mahidra life, Polaris, RPL and Relcap on 20th Tuesday .
The results of Biocon, HDFC, United spirits, Wipro , Yes bank and Zeel on 21st Wednesday,
The results of Bank of India, Bharti airtel, Bharat forge, Cipla, Idea, Kotak bank, NDTV, Praj, Reliance, Rel Infra, Relpower, and Voltas on 22nd Thursday.
The results of Canara Bank, Crompton Greaves, HCL Tech, IDBI, Punj Lloyd, RCOM, RNRL, Syndicate Bank ,Tanla and Tech Mahidra and Vijaya Bank on 23rdFriday .
The results of important companies like ICICI bank, NTPC, SBI, SCI, Sterlite, Sun will be announced on 24th, Saturday where as the hind Unilever on Sunday.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
The Global pressure…….
The markets yesterday displayed a decent rally with the support from the reliance and ADAG group stocks. The evening happiness short lived when the Europe closed. The US markets slump dragged the Asian indices down in line with the rest. The spill over effect spoiled the party but the damage is less as we yesterday added nearly 7-10% in important stocks.
The Nifty is struggling to stay above 2830 level was short lived. Now the bottoms for the last 5 trading sessions were at 2701-2750 level. This will be a good formation if Nifty could cross the 2950 level with global cues then we may head for 3600 level for sure. The disappointing happenings are surrounded the markets and will be forced to live in the hostile environment for next two quarters for sure as the new govt. after election will take time to settle down. In case a hung with no clear majority can dampen the sentiment.
Now the market buzz is that the RIL and ADAG fight for gas will end out of court settlement may improve the sentiment, which can easily set the Nifty above 3180 level.
The Nifty is to close above 2790 level to mitigate the negative news effect and rely on the future growth prospects.
The yesterday leader Reliance, today also saved Nifty from collapse despite the selling pressure. The tech giant Infosys took support at 1220 level bounced to cross 1260 level can save Nifty if it can stay above 1280-85 level. The Bharti and HUL took the Bear beating may loose some more ground before a bounce is expected. The TCS results are not spectacular but may stay above 506 level due to new orders.
The metals and the Banking sector are facing difficult time to protect their valuations. The positive point is that these will find buyers as bargain hunting making profitable.
The Global pressure…….
The markets yesterday displayed a decent rally with the support from the reliance and ADAG group stocks. The evening happiness short lived when the Europe closed. The US markets slump dragged the Asian indices down in line with the rest. The spill over effect spoiled the party but the damage is less as we yesterday added nearly 7-10% in important stocks.
The Nifty is struggling to stay above 2830 level was short lived. Now the bottoms for the last 5 trading sessions were at 2701-2750 level. This will be a good formation if Nifty could cross the 2950 level with global cues then we may head for 3600 level for sure. The disappointing happenings are surrounded the markets and will be forced to live in the hostile environment for next two quarters for sure as the new govt. after election will take time to settle down. In case a hung with no clear majority can dampen the sentiment.
Now the market buzz is that the RIL and ADAG fight for gas will end out of court settlement may improve the sentiment, which can easily set the Nifty above 3180 level.
The Nifty is to close above 2790 level to mitigate the negative news effect and rely on the future growth prospects.
The yesterday leader Reliance, today also saved Nifty from collapse despite the selling pressure. The tech giant Infosys took support at 1220 level bounced to cross 1260 level can save Nifty if it can stay above 1280-85 level. The Bharti and HUL took the Bear beating may loose some more ground before a bounce is expected. The TCS results are not spectacular but may stay above 506 level due to new orders.
The metals and the Banking sector are facing difficult time to protect their valuations. The positive point is that these will find buyers as bargain hunting making profitable.
The Nifty is struggling to stay above 2830 level was short lived. Now the bottoms for the last 5 trading sessions were at 2701-2750 level. This will be a good formation if Nifty could cross the 2950 level with global cues then we may head for 3600 level for sure. The disappointing happenings are surrounded the markets and will be forced to live in the hostile environment for next two quarters for sure as the new govt. after election will take time to settle down. In case a hung with no clear majority can dampen the sentiment.
Now the market buzz is that the RIL and ADAG fight for gas will end out of court settlement may improve the sentiment, which can easily set the Nifty above 3180 level.
The Nifty is to close above 2790 level to mitigate the negative news effect and rely on the future growth prospects.
The yesterday leader Reliance, today also saved Nifty from collapse despite the selling pressure. The tech giant Infosys took support at 1220 level bounced to cross 1260 level can save Nifty if it can stay above 1280-85 level. The Bharti and HUL took the Bear beating may loose some more ground before a bounce is expected. The TCS results are not spectacular but may stay above 506 level due to new orders.
The metals and the Banking sector are facing difficult time to protect their valuations. The positive point is that these will find buyers as bargain hunting making profitable.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Challenge for market…..
The emerging markets like India are in the nascent stage of accepting big blows and shallow market depth to absorb the Selling or Buying may cripple the strength stock markets. But the positive side of the market is a new trend is developing as “Chase for Quality”- nothing but dependable and sustainable corporate governance along with earnings.
This “CHANGE” in the paradigm to explore quality stocks may bring volatility and relaying on MNC stocks will emerge apart from supporting the proven established Corporate Houses. The quality IT stocks may get more business and the promoter worthiness will bring business and valuation as premium.
The Nifty is at the cross roads as it could face the slaughtering by Bears with various rumors. The Nifty fell from 3150 level to 2810 level due to Satyam fiasco and doubting the other published high rise accounts. The Nifty has to cross 2950 level to mitigate the damage done. The bottom fishing is good for MNC stocks to get advantage of a feel good factors circulating as if they are more sagacious and unadulterated.
The RIL is very weak and good above 1221-23 level but bundled with resistance points as scales up, immediate major resistance at 1245-51 level. The ONGC is good above 695-97 level but has support at 646-51level The ICICI bank has no tags attached to this Satyam tale but the exposure to credit cards and advances were not disclosed yet. The stock enjoys criticism and controversies corner it now and then is good above 485 level but the resistance may come at 497-98 level. Incase the low breaches 434 and close below 439 then it will face the blistered Bear beating. The SBI is good above 1275 and weak below 1240 level. The Relcap is good above 528-36 level as the Nifty inclusion is w.e.f-12th Jan.
The sudden weakness a head of this mess saved Bharti bounced back to 640 level from 610 region to save Nifty could find buyers above 658-661 level other wise the story is no different. The RCOM is good above 208 and weak bellow 195.
The DLF signals to all Bears are clear as the Buy back corned them could save if it trades above 205-203 level and the ardent Bears sell below 195. The FII are exiting the infra and construction stocks may weaken the market and it will hurt the sentiment.
There is every possibility that the GOI may come with more stringent Corporate Governance laws and powers to Independent Directors along with responsibilities.
This “CHANGE” in the paradigm to explore quality stocks may bring volatility and relaying on MNC stocks will emerge apart from supporting the proven established Corporate Houses. The quality IT stocks may get more business and the promoter worthiness will bring business and valuation as premium.
The Nifty is at the cross roads as it could face the slaughtering by Bears with various rumors. The Nifty fell from 3150 level to 2810 level due to Satyam fiasco and doubting the other published high rise accounts. The Nifty has to cross 2950 level to mitigate the damage done. The bottom fishing is good for MNC stocks to get advantage of a feel good factors circulating as if they are more sagacious and unadulterated.
The RIL is very weak and good above 1221-23 level but bundled with resistance points as scales up, immediate major resistance at 1245-51 level. The ONGC is good above 695-97 level but has support at 646-51level The ICICI bank has no tags attached to this Satyam tale but the exposure to credit cards and advances were not disclosed yet. The stock enjoys criticism and controversies corner it now and then is good above 485 level but the resistance may come at 497-98 level. Incase the low breaches 434 and close below 439 then it will face the blistered Bear beating. The SBI is good above 1275 and weak below 1240 level. The Relcap is good above 528-36 level as the Nifty inclusion is w.e.f-12th Jan.
The sudden weakness a head of this mess saved Bharti bounced back to 640 level from 610 region to save Nifty could find buyers above 658-661 level other wise the story is no different. The RCOM is good above 208 and weak bellow 195.
The DLF signals to all Bears are clear as the Buy back corned them could save if it trades above 205-203 level and the ardent Bears sell below 195. The FII are exiting the infra and construction stocks may weaken the market and it will hurt the sentiment.
There is every possibility that the GOI may come with more stringent Corporate Governance laws and powers to Independent Directors along with responsibilities.
An article in the Business-Standard covered as……
Merrill, IL&FS sold shares in nick of time
BS Reporter / Mumbai January 11, 2009, 0:41 IST
Days before B Ramalinga Raju admitted to fraud, a handful of financial
services companies, including DSP Merrill Lynch, IL&FS Financial Services
and Deutsche Bank’s non-banking finance company, sold Satyam Computer Services
shares pledged with them. IL&FS Trust Company, which was warehousing them on behalf of the lenders, permitted the lenders to sell the shares.
According to information available from the National Stock Exchange, IL&FS Trust
Company sold 14.89 million shares between December 24 and January 2. On December 24, 2008, IL&FS Trust Company permitted sale of 6.05 million shares at Rs 120.09 each, while another 4.41 million shares were sold at Rs 139.83 five days
later. The trust let go of a further 4.43 million shares at Rs 176 on January 2,
2009 – five days before Raju’s revelations……………………
Challenge for market…..
The nascent stage of accepting big blows and shallow market depth to absorb the Selling or Buying may cripple the strength Indian stock market. But the positive side of the market is a new trend is developing as “Chase for Quality” nothing but dependable and sustainable corporate governance along with earnings.
This “CHANGE” in the paradigm to explore quality stocks may bring volatility and relaying on MNC stocks will emerge apart from supporting the proven established Corporate Houses. The quality IT stocks may get more business and the promoter worthiness will bring business and valuation as premium.
The Nifty is at the cross roads as it could face the slaughtering by Bears with various rumors. The Nifty fell from 3150 level to 2810 level due to Satyam fiasco and doubting the other published high rise accounts. The Nifty has to cross 2950 level to mitigate the damage done. The bottom fishing is good for MNC stocks to get advantage of a feel good factors circulating as if they are more sagacious and unadulterated.
The RIL is very weak and good above 1221-23 level but bundled with resistance points as scales up, immediate major resistance at 1245-51 level. The ONGC is good above 695-97 level but has support at 646-51level
The ICICI bank has no tags attached to this Satyam tale but the exposure to credit cards and advances were not disclosed yet. The stock enjoys criticism and controversies corner it now and then is good above 485 level but the resistance may come at 497-98 level. Incase the low breaches 434 and close below 439 then it will face the blistered Bear beating. The SBI is good above 1275 and weak below 1240 level. The Relcap is good above 528-36 level as the Nifty inclusion is w.e.f-12th Jan.
The sudden weakness a head of this mess saved Bharti bounced back to 640 level from 610 region to save Nifty could find buyers above 658-661 level other wise the story is no different. The RCOM is good above 208 and weak bellow 195.
The DLF signals to all Bears are clear as the Buy back corned them could save if it trades above 205-203 level and the ardent Bears sell below 195.
The FII are exiting the infra and construction stocks may weaken the market and it will hurt the sentiment. There is every possibility that the GOI may come with more stringent Corporate Governance laws and powers to Independent Directors along with responsibilities.
An article in the Business-Standard covered as……
Merrill, IL&FS sold shares in nick of time
BS Reporter / Mumbai January 11, 2009, 0:41 IST
Days before B Ramalinga Raju admitted to fraud, a handful of financial services companies, including DSP Merrill Lynch, IL&FS Financial Services and Deutsche Bank’s non-banking finance company, sold Satyam Computer Services shares pledged with them.
IL&FS Trust Company, which was warehousing them on behalf of the lenders, permitted the lenders to sell the shares.
According to information available from the National Stock Exchange, IL&FS Trust Company sold 14.89 million shares between December 24 and January 2. On December 24, 2008, IL&FS Trust Company permitted sale of 6.05 million shares at Rs 120.09 each, while another 4.41 million shares were sold at Rs 139.83 five days later. The trust let go of a further 4.43 million shares at Rs 176 on January 2, 2009 – five days before Raju’s revelations……………………
An article in the Business-Standard covered as……
Merrill, IL&FS sold shares in nick of time
BS Reporter / Mumbai January 11, 2009, 0:41 IST
Days before B Ramalinga Raju admitted to fraud, a handful of financial services companies, including DSP Merrill Lynch, IL&FS Financial Services and Deutsche Bank’s non-banking finance company, sold Satyam Computer Services shares pledged with them.
IL&FS Trust Company, which was warehousing them on behalf of the lenders, permitted the lenders to sell the shares.
According to information available from the National Stock Exchange, IL&FS Trust Company sold 14.89 million shares between December 24 and January 2. On December 24, 2008, IL&FS Trust Company permitted sale of 6.05 million shares at Rs 120.09 each, while another 4.41 million shares were sold at Rs 139.83 five days later. The trust let go of a further 4.43 million shares at Rs 176 on January 2, 2009 – five days before Raju’s revelations……………………
Saturday, January 10, 2009
May happen again…..
The IT industry is grappling with difficult economic environment due to it over dependence on US and Europe was forcibly thrown into more troubled waters due to Satyam fiasco. The Corporate IT tycoons of first generation shying with ignominy due to this episode and their survival will be more difficult with checks and balances.
None acted with responsibility-The company regulators, top level “lapse of vigilance” at the Foreign Exchange inflow, the lending Banks, the leeway handling of accounts by the PWC and above all the analysts of FII, DII & MF heads with mindless heads made Ramalinga Raju to ditch his company and share holders.
The greed & power to rule the corporate sector putting pressure to “perform by any means” is fast spreading to the developing countries. These kinds of manipulation are very common in DevelopeD countries how ever strict there are aftermath. Here this case is only a sample of the lot in the making and many more will be un-earthed once the graveyard is open for excavation.
The kind of financial irregularities happened at Satyam may happen in other first generation companies if the regulators lay their hands and meticulous eyes to nab the “white-collar crime” culprits. The style of publishing inflated numbers in the balance sheet shall be scrutinized thoroughly and put them behind bars to send a strong message not necessarily to the rest of the world but to these “Financial Vultures” not only eat their birth child company but also cripple the nation’s image and economy.
On Friday the Infra & reality stocks tumbled were finding difficult to trace the bottom as the slide is so massive that no body could understand what happened to who but the whole trauma of buyers was shifted in minutes to sellers when the management of DLF “buy back” was heavily initiated. The stock fell on rumors that the CFO sold more than one lakh shares, like a snow avalanche slide the DLF fell from 225 to 144 and bounced with vengeance to again 220-25 level. The DLF was bought by the promoters to a tune of 17.5 lakh shares at an average price of Rs 193.40 and the total shares bought till date is only 21.4 lakhs.
The Satyam promoters could sell their shares by pledging with IL &FS and others much above 150 per share as the Satyam shares were sold more than 2.14 crore shares when the average price is above 175 by the lenders intimated to Exchanges on 2nd Jan, 1.029 crores of shares sold and intimated to NSE on 6th Jan and again 85.3 lakh share sold and intimated on 8th Jan-09. The poor investors hoping some miracle will happen and turn their fortune are still holding by praying the almighty. The people who burned their energy to build the empire for intelligent master mind rouge are left to their fate called 50,000+ employees looking for help/ recognition for their abilities and service.
The employees who sensed the fall sold their shares- on 22-12-2008 Manisha Mehta-5200, V. Murali-10,000, A.S.Murty-19000, V. Murali-20,000; on 17-12-2008 M.SriRam-1000, A.S.Murty-21,000. On 16-12-2008 Satyam announced the Board decision of buying Maytas.
None acted with responsibility-The company regulators, top level “lapse of vigilance” at the Foreign Exchange inflow, the lending Banks, the leeway handling of accounts by the PWC and above all the analysts of FII, DII & MF heads with mindless heads made Ramalinga Raju to ditch his company and share holders.
The greed & power to rule the corporate sector putting pressure to “perform by any means” is fast spreading to the developing countries. These kinds of manipulation are very common in DevelopeD countries how ever strict there are aftermath. Here this case is only a sample of the lot in the making and many more will be un-earthed once the graveyard is open for excavation.
The kind of financial irregularities happened at Satyam may happen in other first generation companies if the regulators lay their hands and meticulous eyes to nab the “white-collar crime” culprits. The style of publishing inflated numbers in the balance sheet shall be scrutinized thoroughly and put them behind bars to send a strong message not necessarily to the rest of the world but to these “Financial Vultures” not only eat their birth child company but also cripple the nation’s image and economy.
On Friday the Infra & reality stocks tumbled were finding difficult to trace the bottom as the slide is so massive that no body could understand what happened to who but the whole trauma of buyers was shifted in minutes to sellers when the management of DLF “buy back” was heavily initiated. The stock fell on rumors that the CFO sold more than one lakh shares, like a snow avalanche slide the DLF fell from 225 to 144 and bounced with vengeance to again 220-25 level. The DLF was bought by the promoters to a tune of 17.5 lakh shares at an average price of Rs 193.40 and the total shares bought till date is only 21.4 lakhs.
The Satyam promoters could sell their shares by pledging with IL &FS and others much above 150 per share as the Satyam shares were sold more than 2.14 crore shares when the average price is above 175 by the lenders intimated to Exchanges on 2nd Jan, 1.029 crores of shares sold and intimated to NSE on 6th Jan and again 85.3 lakh share sold and intimated on 8th Jan-09. The poor investors hoping some miracle will happen and turn their fortune are still holding by praying the almighty. The people who burned their energy to build the empire for intelligent master mind rouge are left to their fate called 50,000+ employees looking for help/ recognition for their abilities and service.
The employees who sensed the fall sold their shares- on 22-12-2008 Manisha Mehta-5200, V. Murali-10,000, A.S.Murty-19000, V. Murali-20,000; on 17-12-2008 M.SriRam-1000, A.S.Murty-21,000. On 16-12-2008 Satyam announced the Board decision of buying Maytas.
Thursday, January 08, 2009
THE UNANSWERED…………
The New CEO Ram has everything but no to that matters most- “The Information”.
The markets shall face the "test of the depth" to face the selling pressure incase it unwarranted. The stock markets across the globe live in a hostile situation where “The analyst gives wrong calls, the auditors certify any thing for a fee, the promoters publish cooked results and deviated misinformation’s, the fund houses buy with vision of “associations developed” in the nights but the poor retail investor invests the hard earnings for a lifeline of future. At the end of the day the retail investor looses every thing for a toss.
The markets shall face the "test of the depth" to face the selling pressure incase it unwarranted. The stock markets across the globe live in a hostile situation where “The analyst gives wrong calls, the auditors certify any thing for a fee, the promoters publish cooked results and deviated misinformation’s, the fund houses buy with vision of “associations developed” in the nights but the poor retail investor invests the hard earnings for a lifeline of future. At the end of the day the retail investor looses every thing for a toss.
QUESTIONS ???????.........
The unanswered questions are opening in Satyam saga as flood water falls from the dam once the gates are opened for free flow.
The markets were stunned by the financial scandal at Satyam and were surprised to accept the truth of “ALL LIES” by Raju.
The market fell heavily as the built up open position was huge that to in the absence of FII holiday it was built to hand over at higher prices was belied due to the un-expected fiasco at Satyam. The important FII investors resorted for selling at the day’s low price fore tells that they are serious to sell INDIA. The experts are revealing that there are more companies to be micro-scoped for facts rather than accepting.
In case Nifty fails to cross 2957-60 and the low breaches 2812-16 level, then the serious consequences are built in the system. The big names of Indian industry will be doubted for sure and their current valuations will be corrected accordingly.
The markets were stunned by the financial scandal at Satyam and were surprised to accept the truth of “ALL LIES” by Raju.
The market fell heavily as the built up open position was huge that to in the absence of FII holiday it was built to hand over at higher prices was belied due to the un-expected fiasco at Satyam. The important FII investors resorted for selling at the day’s low price fore tells that they are serious to sell INDIA. The experts are revealing that there are more companies to be micro-scoped for facts rather than accepting.
In case Nifty fails to cross 2957-60 and the low breaches 2812-16 level, then the serious consequences are built in the system. The big names of Indian industry will be doubted for sure and their current valuations will be corrected accordingly.
….The markets are enjoying the short covering support above 3080 level. The
earlier suggested levels for ICICI Bank and Relcap were archived but the up move
could be a result of short covering. Now the markets are in bull grip as the
momentum was not dried to fall. The Nifty is good above 3100 level and RIL god
above 1329-31 level. The SBI is good above 1350 and weak below 1330-26 level.
The sudden change in the direction of Bharti to 650 level from its 720 level
despite the 24.41 lakh shares acquiring by Indian Continent Investment Ltd in an
off market deal. In case Bharti falls below 610 then a serious correction of
20-25% on the cards. The NTPC, ONGC, ITC, Bharti, and Cipla are likely to lead
the fall incase Nifty closes below 3030 level.
…..The SBI, ONGC, Bharti and Reliance are becoming weak but just moving up with unease. The Infosys results and the fiasco of Satyam can impact the sentiment. The Reliance is good above and can touch 1330-1350 range but the resistance at 1372 is crucial.The ONGC is one of the weakest face resistances at 693-97 level and at 717-20 level.The SBI is the best chart to observe has resistance at 1380-83 level but has good support at 1218-22 level. The Bharti is being in the accumulation phase. The
well drawn boundaries for it are 749 at the higher side and the 650-60 level is
at the lower-side. The DLF made a second trial to stay above 305 but the real
test it faces at 326-30 level but a clear bottom building is happening at 220-16
level. The immediate support level existed at 260-66 level. In view of the RCOM
plans and the future 3G auction it built a bottom at 187-93 level and the second
level in the process at 221-226.
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
The cemented move…
There was no change in the economic out look of the globe or any country in specific but the stocks are moving North. It is the beauty of the markets that it behaves in style and unique. For those who argue the ticker will be side lined to curse the fate or to make a point of discussion but the ticker will journey the designed course irrespective of the tag that was attached “bear market rally/huge short covering/ bull market in the making”.
The slow economic growth was not fully discounted across the globe. The Indian markets were no exception but the rally triggered after the expiry will take Nifty to 3280 level because of the crude hardening. The rise crude prices will strengthen the RIL, ONGC and RPL. The RIL may start production of KG basin resources.
The readers might have observed the Cement companies move that benefited the most in the Stimulus package-2. The markets are enjoying the short covering support above 3080 level. The earlier suggested levels for ICICI Bank and Relcap were achied but the up move could be a result of short covering.
Now the markets are in bull grip as the momentum was not dried to fall. The Nifty is good above 3100 level and RIL god above 1329-31 level. The SBI is good above 1350 and weak below 1330-26 level. The sudden change in the direction of Bharti to 650 level from its 720 level despite the 24.41 lakh shares acquiring by Indian Continent Investment Ltd in an off market deal. In case Bharti falls below 610 then a serios correction of 20-25% on the cards. The NTPC, ONGC, ITC, Bharti, and Cipla are likely to lead the fall incase Nifty closes below 3030 level.
The slow economic growth was not fully discounted across the globe. The Indian markets were no exception but the rally triggered after the expiry will take Nifty to 3280 level because of the crude hardening. The rise crude prices will strengthen the RIL, ONGC and RPL. The RIL may start production of KG basin resources.
The readers might have observed the Cement companies move that benefited the most in the Stimulus package-2. The markets are enjoying the short covering support above 3080 level. The earlier suggested levels for ICICI Bank and Relcap were achied but the up move could be a result of short covering.
Now the markets are in bull grip as the momentum was not dried to fall. The Nifty is good above 3100 level and RIL god above 1329-31 level. The SBI is good above 1350 and weak below 1330-26 level. The sudden change in the direction of Bharti to 650 level from its 720 level despite the 24.41 lakh shares acquiring by Indian Continent Investment Ltd in an off market deal. In case Bharti falls below 610 then a serios correction of 20-25% on the cards. The NTPC, ONGC, ITC, Bharti, and Cipla are likely to lead the fall incase Nifty closes below 3030 level.
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