The Nifty levels were not breached drastically yet but the levels of the leaders were broken seriously in FMCG, banking, …except the IT.
The ONGC though looks good, in the bull grip failed to scale up from the previous day support above 1220, but retraced to 1210 a circle juncture on Friday. The story is no different to Reliance, which expected to stay above 1125 but staggering at 1110-1105.
The Nifty is good above 5240 but now it has to trade above 5265-70 level to get the real strength and short covering of Bears above 5280 to scale to 5500 level. As of now the Nifty is in a range but likely to travel towards 5140 level or even lower due to the global meltdown and feeling heavy to cross the resistance due to lack of positive triggers.
The tech giants are giving good support to Nifty and feel good factor of the IIP numbers and the economic out look putting positive additions to numbers but the future withdrawl of stimulus, spiraling of inflation numbers and the FII inflows make the RBI to the stringent in dealing with them can give a chance to bears to hammer down the indices.
The outflows of money from the MF above 1 lakh crores in the first week of Jan-10 shows weak faith in the market for future at least for next Sep-10. I mentioned the same in my earlier posting.
The March quarter results of the majors will be impacted by the primary rise of food prices, commodity rise and lack luster performance of industry shown by the low credit off take.
The Nifty is like to trade at 16-18 of P/E by August rather than the current 23.5
The markets will correct but not collapse as it did in 2008.
Monday, January 18, 2010
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