The election results are better than expected to Congress than to any body else. Now the challenge how to take the next level of growth wave with out falling the inflation trap based growth. Many might have predicted but I published the Cabinet reshuffle in my previous posts.
The biggest advantage to govt is that they can rely on reforms but not on opportunity for grafting corruption line. The PM stand on the corruption shall become visible rather than keeping himself above. The support and pressure from Mamataji may become crucial and the push and pull be violent with the recent success. The plans to rise diesel price may get stiff resistance from allies may save the market also. The corporate scions are welcoming the change but the change shall take place at the centre on crucial issues like FDI and PF funds to markets.
The major developments are election results and the Wipro buying stake in Brazil company, UID’s 40000 cr plan to outsource services, Arvind joing hand with Tatas for residential and commercial buildings at Ahemedabad. The Suzlon positive results may keep the stock in positive territory.
The rise in dollar index may trigger for the sell of in emerging markets especially country like India which is scarifying growth for controlling inflation. Now the Growth may become a potential element rather than an on going process. The momentum may get disturbed may create crippling effect after wards. The threatening ones are like PMEAC head Rangarajan suggesting for rising further rates and freeing diesel. The US late recovery and need for raising further debt for more spending by Obama may not be a good sign to markets as the fiscal debt of US for now is OK but further rise may have cascading effects.
The Nifty is good above 5550 and the lower level 5460 shall not be pierced in this week as the jubilance of Bulls shall take the index to next level. The biggest hurdle for this movement is RIL, HDFC and Infosys. The positive stocks like HUL, ITC, ONGC and the Pharma lot may turn a drag if the Nifty fails to trade above 5640 level.
The Midcaps are out performing and will continue their journey despite of lack of momentum in Nifty. The metal pack and the IT pack shall turn their Southward journey to upward other wise the weakens will worsen and the Nifty may crumble. To avoid this situation TCS shall trade above 1153, Infosys above 2950 and RIL above 965 level. The better upward momentum HUL shall not trade below 296 level.
No comments:
Post a Comment