PREPARE FOR THE WORST?????

In an interview with ET Now, Shankar Sharma, Global Trading Strategist, First Global, gives his views on the current market scenario. Excerpts: 

Three months ago you had predicted this decline. Are you feeling very happy about your call? 

Not feeling happy or sad in the stock market or for that matter in cricket because you will win some you will lose some. Hopefully over a period of time you should win more than you lose, but you will lose a few as well. So the one thing that sports and markets both teach you is that always remain humble and remain rooted to the ground. So I am not very happy at the way it has worked out, particularly for our local markets. Globally it was anyway looking very-very shaky, but be that as it may, anybody who was careful and conservative three months back is probably a lot happier than somebody who was more aggressive. 

So are we approaching a panic bottom or this is just the beginning? 

I do not think we are done at all with the fall globally and within that context I do not think we are done with the fall in India. When we spoke last time three months back, my view was that I think we were at about 18,000 or 18,500 or so on the Sensex back then thereabouts give or take 500 points. My view was that we would see 16,000 at the bottom and in markets you do not think that far out when you will make your view as newer levels come. We have kind of very effortlessly reached the levels of 16,000 and that zone a lot more effortlessly than probably I also envisaged and visualized, but that having been reached I do not see where is the redemption. 

I do not see what will change so dramatically even whilst I was away from the market I did glance at the headlines and I did glance at the earnings numbers etc. and they did not seem at all enthusing. So without that and then you have obviously the big global factor, the big overhang of those factors and then you have our middle class going totally bananas over a movement which has absolutely complete disaster written all over it for the future of this nation. All things put together I am very-very sobered by all that I am seeing around me. 

THANKS TO ET for this , 

I completely agree with Shankarji as the dependency with world markets ai not totally ruled out  and the markets in WEST and US washed out for all practical reasons. Any comeback is aonly a short covering and the buyers/investors will sell now. The depth of the market in the west is higher than ours but the volatility is extremely high. The Indian markets will face the real heat once the FIIs starts pull out some of the profits from our shallow markets will create a catastrophic effect in the next few months. The technical supports and resistance will get violated by wide range is the biggest problem with these kinds of situations.