Sunday, December 18, 2011

So is the potential….


The growth story of India is intact but the markets under current situation are impatient to go up. The retail investors always try to find his/her place in the current trend. Where as the market makers build the portfolio. It is very difficult to identify a multi-bagger stock in a given scenarios or a given situation. I personally find it difficult to identify at a given moment but they emerge after a long period of continuous follow-up over the company performance and in relation to price. Most of the times, even after through study, minor changes in the policy decisions and the overall market conditions, tend to keep me waiting; normally they take more than 3-5 years.

Some classic examples like Moserbaer which has every good reason to get appreciation from the market now become an absolute over the change in the technology. The life to CDs has burnt, so is the un-build brand to it’s electronics like TV’s, LCD’s and ect. This put a check on the dreams of Deepak Puri to make his company on the global map. The future for the solar power is emerging but for now it is in the nascent stage. The company chalked out a strategy well in advance to the rest making the situation unviable for the operations, bleeding every day more than a crore at the net profit level.
The similar story is building with Suzlon. Like Moserbaer, it enjoyed the early advantage to Tulsi Tanti in the wind energy generation, founded in 1995. The ride in the stock market has given a boost to raise money from all-around with huge expansion plans. The same enthusiasm put the management to take early calls and hasty decisions in buying assets across the globe. The jubilance at one time has now become a heavy baggage on back. The need for reconstruction of the organization forced them to dilute their stake at the current prices. The FCCB conversion at current rupee value is making even more difficult to hold the price.
The story of SPIC is more pathetic. They are the oldest group in the South India, but failed to visualize the future. The rampant imports of Pencillin_G made the units sick in India. They could establish LAB with TN perochemicals but Reliance entry spoiled the growth and aspirations of Muthias. The story with series of failures dragged down to a level where SPIC could knock the doors of BIFR for survival. The feedstock issues for fertilizer units in India is common but for SPIC more painful as RIL KG basin out put is shrinking and the cost is escalating to SPIC. But the future looks good over a period of time as the management is pumping money and the GOI is also prioritizing the allocation of gas to fertilizer companies. 

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