NIFTY RISE ON ONLY POLICY DECISIONS...????

ON 17^th Sep-12 Nifty touched a high of 5652. From that date the positive momentum took place, bounced that it could make the low above 5650 from 21^st Sep-12. The gains continued un-interrupted, to touch a high of 5815 on 5^th Oct-12 and could continue stay above 5650. On Friday, 26^th Oct-12, Nifty closed at 5664 level. If we consider this umbrella formation gives us a FALL signal. Otherwise, the long one and half month consolidation has to give us a decent up move up-to 6080-6135 level with our any doubt. The current BULL run started from 4800 level form 1^st June-12, took some breath at 5350 level the resumed un interrupted journey till it touched 5815 level.

The PSU banks like PNB, IOB, BOI.. results disappointed, made some alarm sound on the raising NPAs. So the banks like PNB, CANBANK, BOI and IOB lost more than 5-7% is a big concern on these BULLS favoring days, on the other hand the good results produced private banks like AXIS, KOTAK and ICICI rise was capped. At this juncture, the markets are looking at RBI for rate cuts. The HUL results are good but the fell more than 2% is a negative sign. The ITC results are well accepted by the markets but ITC recently touched yearly High at 299 but closed at 285 levels. The major supports to markets are being expected from the POLICY makers- Reforms are the best option available now.

As of now, the world markets in BULL grip, so the fall is always a threatening to bears to go short. So I expect markets fall due to lack of BULL support but not due to heavy BEAR hammering. In my earlier posting clearly mentioned that the DAX has good support at 7150, so it bounced from that level but weaker vigor. The markets are now watching the EURO problems with SPAIN, GREECE at the epicenter. So try to focus on DAX, if it trades below 7080 very likely to touch 6850 level but here lies the real problem. In case the BULLs fail to garner required support then it will slide to 6300-6250 level. Then the fall becomes 1200 points. To re-gain the confidence it may take more than 6 months.

Similarly, In India Nifty has very good support at 5500-5450 level, if the bear pressure will start pushing the Nifty down below 5400 and likely to go up-to 5080. As of now the markets at cross roads, so markets may get positive move or saved by RBI credit policy on 30^th Oct-12. The Bank Nifty now closed at 11510 levels just above the support level placed at-11420 level.