CONSOLIDATION WITH POSITIVE BIAS......

The Sep-13 series opened with high open interest both in Nifty and Bank Nifty. A phenomenal increase seen in OI generated in IDFC and AXIS. The other counters also see some increased activity but the over all positioning favouring the Bulls.The Nifty fell from 6093 on July 23 rd, reached to 5119 on August 28^th. A fall of 974 points. The sharp rise from 5118 to 5493 in 3 days provides some confidence to Bulls to maintain their longs for a sharper short covering rally above 5530 level. The rally may need some extra support from IT and Pharma stocks along with RIL and ONGC.The RIL counter is now in Bull grip so long it trades above 803-809 level. The very sharp recovery from 763 level is a good sign but the Bears could exert press to make the stock to trade below 793 level by cuting the 785 support. The energy sector especially RIL will cross the Yearly high and may lead the rally above 5760, but the catch is it has to trade above 875-83 level comfortably, otherwise the counter may cut the yearly low may not be a surprise.

The counters now favoured by Bulls are metals, Sesa Goa, Cairn, RIL and Pharma lot. The IT sector will test their valuations with their Sep-13 results. TCS has much better scope to rise upto 2240-80 level with ease. HCL tech may touch 1140-60 levels. Infy is finding dificulty to stay above 3120 level may come to 2930-2880 level before they publish the results. In this journey, the ANIL group stocks will be re-rated will out-perform the market by large margin.The Telecom giant Bharti has some issues with the rupee fall but also has the advantage of Dollar earnings like Tata Motors. The M&M is facing the slow down heat may touch 685-640 level. The Tractor division may save but not enough.The ITC and HLL are the prime drivers of earlier rally may now can offer supprt to Bulls but ITC is losing steam to stay above 320 levels.

The ICICI and AXIS counters may see some news based activity in the coming days. The HDFC and HDFC bank also could recover from their lows but still in Bear grip.The Banking counters may once again bring the INSURANCE arms Value-Unlocking on to the table to stop the relentless slide. The SBI may touch 1780 level and other PSUs may follow the suit. The Bank Baroda has lost all supports at 550-600 range now has become a distance dream for the stock to cross the 600 mark. But the stock is consolidating around 430-450 range is a good sign. The BOB counter will see define support at 380 level like PNB. PNB though looks week at 440-450 range will test 365 range but a definite Banking stock to buy at the current prices.The GDP numbers are definitely positive given the agriculture growth. The rural economy will do well in this fiscal year. The problem is the RUPEE depreciation: most probably the GOVT may knock the IMF doors. The way the Rupee battered can through some thoughts on the game plan of  those wild/cruel FIIs and Foreign Banks which are recovering at their end but also need some extra interest on the loan amounts they offer to EMERGING Economies shall yield higher returns. The desperate request from the Indian Govt may leave no bargain space while raising funds. They dictate the “Road Map” of Liberalization at their TERMS.However we can see some good up move on the bourses.