The bounce is very likely on the cards not for the BUDGET positives but due to the OVERSOLD ZONE coupled with good news of IIP numbers and US & EUROPE greener closing...!!!
The
overall BUDGET is good for the economy and for the markets in the Medium term
to Long-term but these gyrations are due to Unwinding of Leveraged positions
and offloading some of the High beta counters by the HNIs and some fund houses…
The Nifty
lost nearly 400 points from the Highs, 7808 to 7447 but if we consider the F&O
series, from the opening it lost nearly 65 points only. The Counters like Zee
up by-8, Sun Pharma up by- 75+, RANBAXY up by 58+, TATA MOTORS - up by 14+, MARUTI- up by 65+, IRB up by 17+, INFY up by 108+, IDFC up by 18+, HLL up by 19+, HDFC up by 23+ and DrReddy up by 155+ Adani ports, Bharat Forge and many more....
The strength
of the markets is intact as the SECTOR rotation has become the priority of the
DAY/WEEK. The IT counters made a decent come back and the Pharma has extended
their support apart from the FMCG (Mainly positive due to GST implementation by
Dec-14).
The FDI hike to 49% in Insurance sector is good news and the long-term
is very promising to this sector. The scrips like Reliance Capital, ICICI, SBI
and HDFC likely to get re-rated. The other banking stocks into Insurance may
see bottom support.
The Broad band HIGHWAY and low power consuming LED lights can offer
better returns in the long-term. The Infra opportunity is only an opportunity
at least for next 6- months as many issues need to be addressed.
The
Global news will dictate the next week, mostly favourable news is building. The
improvement in the rain fall scenario and the economic growth based on the
declared IIP numbers. The Nifty will be in trading range of 7350-7650 for some
time. The quarterly results will influence the Nifty and the counters as well
but will stay above 7280 level. Any move below this support level shall be
taken seriously and avoid further buying for short-term gains.
The Nifty
has good support at 7445, 7380 and at 7350 level for now. The bounce could take
us to 7559 and 7660-80 level without any serious resistance from the BEARS. The
real test will come into force when NIFTY trades above 7650 level and Reliance
above 1030 level. The banks charts got their structure OUT of SHAPE, any up
move can be good chance to off-load unless there is very favourable news is
announced.
The ICICI is positive only when it breaches 1449 and stays above 1426-29
level, SBI has good potential above 2640, HDFC has more space above 1017-22
level. Relcapital consolidates around 524-594 range for some time before it
take a leap and is good above 608 after consolidation. The Rel-Infra has
tremendous potential going forward but the consolidation around 685-776 is on
the cards. The counters of ADAG are high beta counters and swing is high/volatile.
The Reliance is in midst of many controversies be it in World Cup FOOT-BALL
tickets, D-6 gas arbitration and retail business profitability prospects and
many… The ONGC is good above 406-08 for 430 targets and Reliance can touch
1022-26 range. The seriously beaten down counters like PFC, BOI, CanBk, BoB,
PNB, SBI, Adani, L&T and United Spirits can offer decent returns in this
week.
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