The Samvat and FII inflows

Thanks to Business Standard that made it so simple for us.

CELEBRATION TIME
Year	Samvat	Muharat Trading	Change *		Investment (Rs  cr)
			(%)	Absolute	FII	DII
2001	2058	14-Nov	-17.1	-644	13,279	NA
2002	2059	4-Nov	-4.0	-125	2,833	NA
2003	2060	25-Oct	60.7	1,815	20,940	NA
2004	2061	12-Nov	24.2	1,162	39,216	NA
2005	2062	1-Nov	33.2	1,980	43,960	-2,055
2006	2063	21-Oct	60.3	4,793	42,117	-365
2007	2064	9-Nov	48.4	6,171	78,391	14,534
2008	2065	28-Oct	-52.4	-9,900	-50,081	79,334
2009	2066	17-Oct	92.3	8,318	71,332	30,254
2010	2067	5-Nov	18.1	3,140	130,512	-22,264
* change over previous Samvat; FII & DII 2010 data (till November 2,  2010); Data compiled by BS Research Bureau                                                                                          Source: SEBI

The FII inflows are crucial because they are buying the paper and the growth story of India.
Do we continue to enjoy the Nifty run-up that to North???????.

HAPPY DIWALI...

STOCKS DOCTOR WISHES-

All The Readers and Investors- "HAPPY DIWALI".

I wish you a Bright, Colourful, Delightful, Happy,

and 

PROSPEROUS DIWALI.

-NAGESWARARAO.BAMMIDI

The STOCK MARKET enters today from Samvat-2066 to 2067.

 RIGHT DECISIONS at RIGHT TIME 

ENSURES SUCCESSFUL WEALTH.

Bright prospects..

The regular readers might have appreciated the ‘call’ and enjoyed Nifty touching 6300(F&O), cash touched 6284 level on 14^th of this month. The markets are now in consolidation phase as they are evaluating the Winner and looser in the resent published Sep-10 results. Those who studied markets regularly ratify the fact that the quality of appreciation market offers to out-performers in the market. Now the results and the future course of journey of economy favours a few.

The Reliance results are good and above street expectations. The markets likely to support the scrip to touch 1180-1220 level with out much resistance. The bottom supports are at 1053-56 and good support and buying opportunity at 1036-39 level.

The Obama Visit to India can hold the market above 5950 level but may not offer a free rally in advance either. The Power sector investments are huge and the capital goods industry is assured electrified though the China competition is not ruled out as it happened in Telecom sector.  The Nifty has traversed the journey with a bang from 5400 level to 6300 level. The global markets are not supporting the exuberance as the investors left-out are not fully convinced to jump in to grab the growth story of India. But the apathy is not carrying a high degree of indifference so is the consolidation.

The Nifty has breached the so called 5950-60 support may test 5800-5760 level before it assume the next jump. The word of caution is that the positive results of ICICI and Reliance may trigger Nifty to cross 6200 in the near term.

A DAY TO REMEMBER....

A remarkable day in the annals of Indian History with the pronouncement of FAITH and LOVE for brotherhood EXISTENCE. The Indian Judiciary made a remarkable Judgment for the long drawn legal battle with HUMANITY on the cover by sharing the SUPREME to INDIANS. The religion is now a matter of faithful affiliation to GOD but not to his BLISSFUL BLESSINGS.

I too experienced on a PERSONAL front, BLESSED with GOD’s GRACE. The Almighty EVOKED the confidence in my HEART by a 15 to 44 miracle of a 29 seconds spell of FAITH.
The HDIL fell from Rs270/- for August series now ended at Rs 259/- may be the only highly traded reality stock that failed to post gains despite Nifty closed from 5470 to 6030 level with a gain over 550 points. The Nifty lost the entire premium for October series as it carried more than a 20 -23 points. The retreat may give some buying opportunities for the side liners. The banking sector is getting a warning call from RBI to controle the exposure to safer limits and the US recovery is recovering can put a cap on the momentum but the consolidation at 5770-5840 level is very good for markets to gain further strength to touch 6300 at Nifty level.

MARKET MANTRA

MARKETS ALWAYS SAY-

 When I EXCUSE your Failure then it will be MY FAILURE.

SO

NEVER BEG FOR 'EXCUSE' IN THE MARKET.

The best move to consolidate….

In my earlier article, I wrote that the Nifty is taking all possible positive cues to make a big push to scale new highs but with a caution as the external turmoil is not conducive then. But the pace of journey was not identified in advance but the Nifty touched the High of 5901.65 level on16th Sep-10, Thursday and it is a clear journey from 4348.90 made a low on 31st Aug-2010, Tuesday and the going is strong.….The Nifty is taking every positive sign to push to new highs. The charts are very supporting to it above 5470 level. As of now it looks like Nifty may touch 5860 level but the journey may not be in single direction but definitely upwards till it reaches the goal. As of now I see a resistance at 5687-93 level.

....The Nifty is well placed above the previous level resistances. The external factors are supporting to move up may not carried for long from here. I anticipated a CRR hike to squeeze the excess liquidity but the RBI opted for Repo hike and reverse Repo hikes is a blessing in disguise. This gave a thumping support to banking stocks and reality stocks. The Reliance up move is a good supportive move to Nifty and squaring of shorts in the counter is helping the Nifty to stay afloat at every new high.
The SAIL and Tata Steel chiefs are finding the difficulty without considering the investment cost while allocating the 25% profits to the locals of the mining area. The Jindal power is investing close to 13000 crs for its 2400MW power project in Raigarh and Bajaj Hindustan already in setting up of 2430MW power projects with is bagasse is raw material is also planning to invest 10000 crs for its coal based 1980 MW power project in UP. The large groups are seriously participating in setting up of power generation projects to meet the future needs apart from the traditional existing power generation houses.

US markets and INDIA

The correlation with the US markets is self explanatory. We are special but cann't be out side the orbit over a period of tiime.

NIFTY: GROWTH FROM JULY-2010
16-Sep-10 5,861.10 5,901.65 5,815.80 5,828.70
15-Sep-10 5,795.25 5,869.45 5,792.20 5,860.95
2-Jul-10 5,251.25 5,277.25 5,225.60 5,237.10
1-Jul-10 5,312.05 5,312.55 5,232.10 5,251.40
NASDAQ: GROWTH FROM JULY-2010
16-Sep-10 2,297.51 2,304.95 2,288.71 2,303.25
15-Sep-10 2,283.17 2,304.60 2,276.32 2,301.32
2-Jul-10 2,105.50 2,110.66 2,077.71 2,091.79
1-Jul-10 2,110.75 2,117.94 2,061.14 2,101.36
DOW GROWTH FROM JULY-2010
16-Sep-10 10,571.75 10,624.58 10,499.43 10,594.83
15-Sep-10 10,526.42 10,609.21 10,453.15 10,572.73
2-Jul-10 9,732.23 9,798.19 9,603.80 9,686.48
1-Jul-10 9,773.27 9,834.71 9,596.04 9,732.53

FII money pouring...

An atricle from FE for you update. The power of excess liquidity..
Tuesday September 14, 04:04 AM Source: Indian Express Finance
India hot spot for FII investments   By fe Bureau
India is the most popular destination for overseas portfolio investors to park their fund in the Asian region for 2010. It may be a signal of increasing confidence in the Indian growth story, when the rest of the world is struggling to fight the recession. Bloomberg data shows that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have purchased domestic equities worth $13.7 billion in 2010 till date making it the only Asian markets to have received more than $10 billion of investment this year. It is 56% higher than corresponding period of last year.
This year, FII investment into India is over 57% higher than that of South Korean, which remains at the second slot in terms of overseas investment followed by Indonesia, Taiwan, Thailand, Philippines and Vietnam among others. Interestingly, higher amount of FII investment has flowed into India despite the fact that domestic equities are commanding a relatively higher PE against its regional peers. While Nifty (^NSEI : 5760 0) of NSE is trading at a PE of 19.36, it is 13.66 for South Korea, 4.16 for Indonesia, 14.98 for Taiwan and 14.61 for Philippines. As regards, future FII inflows into India will depends on the second quarter numbers, which would give a cue into the future earnings trajectory of India Inc.

So far so good….

The Indian bourses shut for last Friday and the world over made some positive closing is not an opportunity to buy on Monday morning, because the other major markets fell but we continued our positive move during the week without a break. The argument is not to discourage the buyers for future gains but to alert the commonality being under observation.
Now the emerging challenge to our markets is the immediate threats placed due to the interdependence for imports and exports with the rest of the world. However we strongly claim on our internal consumption driven resourceful economy, we have to live with the rest. The double dip recession may not be our problem but our markets like to taste the bitterness of the fact as the world major economies are struggling to cope up with the falling data figures. So the Nikkei, S&P and the Europe will put their pressure on us to follow their falling trend albeit with lesser pace.
As a whole the West is looking for a better place to park the excess liquidity in a safe, growing, conducive in socio-economical geography, crystallized with relative terms on India. The large country with growing young educational minds has huge absorbing capacity be it knowledge or skills, likely outperform the peers, placed us in comfortable situation for next 5-10 years. There is very little threat existing to destabilize the factors under consideration. So the outperformance when compared is assured.
The numbers are the money spinners in the stock markets with time in the backdrop. This is all about knowing the number game. Be it a day to day for technical chartists or corporate financial results for fundamentalists or the growth numbers for economists-every thing boils down to NUMBERS. ALWAYS LIVE WITH NUMBERS-GOOD OR BAD.
The Indian markets are continuously in Bull grip and likely to enjoy the bottom support till it touches the trigger below 5412-16. So at Nifty level, it is not a sensible decision to go short but the individual stocks reached high can throw/offer some opportunity. The Nifty is likely to face resistance at 5668-73 level and the support at 5606 level for Monday.

GOOD ECONOMY…..

Our economy is doing well and we will do well in our markets…..
The statement is good for India, with the IIP numbers are growing above 13.8%, especially with the support of capital goods but not the leading economies like US and Japan. So the pressure on our markets will appear, as an integral part of the market movement.
Last week the Tata Steel touched a high of 596.65 and Bharti touched 357.95(we expected as.. likely to touch 592-98 & above Rs 365/-level).
The Nifty is taking every positive sign to push to new highs. The charts are very supporting to it above 5470 level. As of now it looks like Nifty may touch 5860 level but the journey may not be in single direction but definitely upwards till it reaches the goal. As of now I see a resistance at 5687-93 level.
The RBI likely to consider monetary tightening measures by increasing the CRR by 25 basis points to reduce the supply lead inflation. The second quarter industrial out put is on strong footing but the market then ignored news like increase in the gross Non-performing Assets of the banks like SBI leading the table followed by IDBI could trigger a negative blow.
The market participants are interested take long positions as the industry cycles participating in the up move is increasing. This is attracting more retail investors to take call for extra gains in short period.The nature of retail behavior is common and is a replica of the falls recorded as history yet to take place. This can be identified by the FLOOD of retail orders and SKY HIGH rocket speed price rises in the UNKNOWN/DESTITUTE stocks.

HAPPY GANESH CHATURTHI...

HEARTFELT, HEARTFUL WISHES..."HAPPY GANESH CHATURTHI".

LORD GANESH BLESS YOU "WEALTH, HEALTH, PROSPERITY AND PEACE"-EVERY DAY AND YEARS TO COME.

MARKETS ARE INSTRUMENTS TO MINT MONEY.
MARKETS OSCILLATE, FLUCTUATE AND MOVE IN A DIRECTION. SO MAKE MONEY BEING IN RIGHT DIRECTION.

GOODLUCK


NAGESWARA RAO & FAMILY

Prop-up support for now...???

The global support is the prop-up support right now available to our markets. The US rally that bounced with vengeance with the S&P touched 1050 level. The Nifty here did the same when it touched the 5350 level but the ferocity is a question/debatable.
The Nifty has to trade above 5495 level but has resistance at 5530 level. The bottom support at 5450 level is well placed to support the Bulls to take a call. As of now there is no threat to Nifty falling steep as the position built over since July 9the above 5350 level is huge and the Bulls will buy even more as the economy is doing well and the favoured the Bull to plunge.
The restructuring of debt and raising more loans $5.4 billion for Corus at cheaper rates can increase the profit margin for Tata steel as the world wide auto sales are increasing and the consumption to increase. The same is being built in the price as the Tata steel stock is looking technically good above 513 levels, likely to touch 592-98 level even the Nifty fall for some time. Now the ferrous metal group will demand/lobby for a price hike again than the recent one. The industry suffered looses to cap some extent by maintaining the price for the sake of high rising inflation.
NSE planning to go for Mobile trading from October and our 3G services though not cheap but will increase the participants to enable. This will open a new era of financial transactions over mobile be it banking, trade or entertainment through games and movies. The markets will push the leaders like Bharti above Rs 365/-level and the RCOM above Rs 200/- level. The fertilizer stocks will see good demand in future apart from the Pharma as the environment is changing.

The going is good???..How far….????

The markets in the last 25 trading sessions are in between 5350-5550 level, as a matter of fact traded mostly in between 5400-5500 levels.
The beauty of these record highs was with out the participation of Reliance. This stock dragged from a high of 1180 to 915 level during this period. The beauty part of the rally with crossing the higher hurdles is with the major support from PSU stocks be it in banking or it in Oil &Gas.
There was a change in the holding structure of Reliance by Mukesh but it was not highlighted by the Media not even a discussion was taken place in the business channels but the market gave its verdict. I have a personal opinion that the retailer investors were not sufficiently informed.
The Nifty is likely to touch a new high again in the coming session but vey unlikely to maintain the streak. This time the Nifty fall points get triggered once it trades below 5440 instead of the earlier 5370-80 level.

The Birlas increased their stake in Hindalco by two percent in the last two months. The highest (in NSE) volumes made at 4cr odd on June-9th,at 130/- level and the lowest recorded at 30 lakhs at Rs 165-167 level on Aug-9th. Now the ruling price is at Rs170/-

The fall with support?????

People close to me know the recent levels as explicitly mentioned that the market will take a breathe only after it touches 5550 and likely to touch 5280 without loosing the momentum.

NowBUSINESS-STANDARD COVERED as..Daily charts show support at 17,940
Rex Cano / Mumbai August 29, 2010, 0:58 IST


The markets witnessed some profit-taking after scaling to fresh 30-month highs. The Sensex touched a high of 18,454, and then slipped to a low of 17,944. The index finally settled with a loss of 403 points at 17,998.

Among index stocks, Jaiprakash Associates slumped over nine per cent to Rs 112. Reliance Infrastructure, Hindalco and DLF tumbled around eight per cent each. Hero Honda, Sterlite, Tata Power, HDFC Bank, Reliance, Wipro and ICICI Bank were the other major losers. On the other hand, ONGC surged nearly five per cent to Rs 1,318. Bharti Airtel and NTPC were the other notable gainers.

Going forward, the index has near support at 17,940 on the daily charts, while weekly charts indicate support around 17,560. On the higher side, the index is likely to face resistance around 18,200.

The Nifty moved in a range of 158 points — from a high of 5,550, the index dropped to a low of 5,392, and finally settled with a loss of 122 points at 5,409.

The support for the Nifty on the daily charts is at 5,380, while resistance is around 5,460. On weekly charts, the index may seek support around 5,270 (which is the short-term moving average) and below which the index may dip to 5,135.
If the index breaks below 5,380, the probability of it dropping to lower levels, viz 5,270 and 5,135, remains high in the coming trading sessions.

Global deeper cut…

The bears are making nightmares to bulls across the globe triggering one exchange to other as the deeper cuts in the valuations diminishing the hopes of revival. The fall is so deep that the bounce is expected on the normal front. The Bears are so strong at this juncture to dictate the technical’s to favour them.

The Nifty is well below the bouncing level, to avoid further damage, Nifty has to bounce with local DII support. The FIIs are withdrawing more than 1500 crs each day and from 10th May the out flow was close to 700 crores for our markets. The Nifty has to cross and close above 4865 level to give breather to Bulls to make some fight, though looks a loosing battle. Now The Nifty is trading at the Sep-09 levels that came from a high of 5400 level a month ago. The fall is hard to digest but offering good blue chips at through away prices. Any way which side are you?.
The Nifty is not favouring Bulls even to give hopes unless it trades above 4925 level for now. The RIL has to stay above 1001-04 level and the Infosys has to trade above 2569 level. The SBI, most favoured in the PSU lot has to trade above 2187-93 level. The bear hug counters like Sesa Goa, ster, Hindalco, Sail and Tata steel are good for bottom fishing as they lost more than 15-20%.
The TataMotors may bounce with vengeance when it trades above 695 levels. The banking lot may again Bulls support once the markets back in to positive territory above 4945. The bargain hunting and accumulation is possible in telecos and the Reality infra may get support at lower levels from these levels.

Clouded Fears..

The Nifty lost all the gains made in the opening due to the fears developed in the minds of the investors as the Europe may find it difficult to maintain the growth and the debt serviceability. The global integration is a good sign for the economy as a whole but at times of these developments cripple the emerging markets even though they are not party to the crisis but bear the burnt. India is a classic case that fits in the example despite the fact that we are growing independently and locally with our resources but the stock markets are well fabricated with global developments as much of the investments are from the FIIs.
United we strong is the clear message from the markets to Anil and Mukesh. The Reliance group saved the day from getting the Nifty into red. The markets supported the group by 18000 crores richer capitalization. The future discussions and agreements of those group developments will lead the course of action in the stocks.
The early gains are basically from the contributions from the Ambani stocks and the spill over effect to the other stocks. As the day progressed, the markets found the difficulty in maintaining the levels with the inflow of selling pressure, pared the early gains, slipped in to red before closing the day. The opening of the Europe, the epicenter of the current crisis did not opened with a bang on the positive clues from Asia. The western analysts are with gloomy outlook shadowed the clouds of fear at the end of the day, so the markets lost the sheen with late selling pushed the indices down and bulls took a back seat for the day.
The CRISIL research report says that 3G market is well poised for a big leap in the ARPU and in the subscriber base as the estimated investments of 2.6 lakh crores are offing for next 5 years. The industry experts are bearing a view that the Telecom sector is heading for a major consolidation. This view can be accelerated with the rumors that Mukesh is planning for re-entry into the sector. In my earlier published article expressed the view that the Indian operators are willing to pay more to 3G license so that they can bargain a better deal from the foreign companies, planning to enter India.
The major concern now for the government is to tame the rising inflation. The economic growth is being crippled y the inflation at higher levels as the net gains are negligible. The Nifty has to trade above 4965 level and the low shall not breach 4911. The RIL is good above 1018 level and the bears gain strength below 1004-1000 level.
The markets can get the support of Bulls once the Infosys trades above 2650 and the stock will gain momentum above 2685 level. The SBI, a bull grip stock shall trade above 2310-15 level gives positive signals to over all market. In case the recent rally in ONGC is wiped out, the stock trades below 1036 level and red flag can be raised as a caution once it trades below 1050-55 level.
The metal sector is losing the fancy can gain the strength once the woes of mining companies are over. The Sesa Goa has to trade above 360 level to mitigate the negative impact. The Tatasteel has to trade above 529 with the opening above 525.

The recovery is FOR SURE …….

The readers might noticed that it is a big opportunity to buy blue chips at this level as this is anticipated due to the global economic crisis resulted correction.
The markets across the globe proffered profit booking at the cost of Greece. The emerging markets are attracting more FII inflow from the west. The foreigners want the available opportunity to build their positions as the growth rate is close to 9% in India. The inflation concern is not mitigated by the policy efforts.
As I mentioned in my earlier posting….The short term traders buying at lower levels shall enter the markets at 4830-40 level which may become rock bottom support for Nifty…. The Nifty is well positioned to go to next level from the base support at 4830-40 level to 5080 first and may face serious resistance at 5140-46 level.
The Ambani brothers burying the rivalry is positive to markets as the fear of counter part action as a threat or a challenge is reduced to minimal is maximum support to bulls. The RIL is finding difficult to trade above 1018-20 level is negative sign but tomorrow markets may cover the journey with ease. The ONGC stellar movement saved the Nifty falling to deeper levels will also help it to scale up to higher levels without facing much resistance. The ONGC now may stay above 1055 level with out any difficulty.
The metals corrected deeply on account of slowing demand from China may get support in coming months as the economic recovery is sustained and the earnings strength is visible to the markets can offer decent valuations. The TataSteel is likely to touch 586-78 level, the TataMotors may touch 765 with ease.

The inevitable fall…..

The day aggrivated the woes of Bulls as the Germany banned the naked short selling in addition to the Euro issue, as the fall is free below 5030-5025 level. As a matter of fact, I suggested to take a closer look as the Nifty is going to be capped at 5230 level as the sentiment got hurted and it takes longer time to get healed. …..The severe fall as expected..??? the Nifty lowers levels are expected but the reasons for the fall are moreserious than the technicals. The heavy weights now will follow the trend and weigh pressure on the Nifty. If this happens then the Nifty is capped at 5220 for some time now…..



The scar is deep…..!!!....The dent made ion the head of Nifty is deep enough that could consume longer period to cure. The situation is ripe for the Bulls only when the Nifty bounces from 4680 level. But to eliminate the retail shorts Nifty rose steeply from 4985 to 5200 level.
The positive sentiment building in the market and the accumulation at lower levels is the order of the days a head. The country is likely to enjoy huge FII inflow as the gates are now open to 3-G and the Govt is very happy to announce favouarable policy matters as they have garnered more than Rs 67,500 crores and it is far more than the anticipated numbers at 42,000-45,000 crores. The telecos will get the investment support as the 3G offers more more services linked to VAS, is the emerging big market opportunity in the second largest populated emerging economy. The telecos revenues for next decade is assured with cummulative/ incremental growth at the revenue front and at the bottoline though the strain on finanacial in the next two years of launch is not ruledout.The RCOM emerged winner in 13 circles where as Bharti paid the best price for creamy spots and the Vadafone is second best paid. Now the game of Mergers and Acquisition will open a new turf which is not ruled out as the rollout starts.
The ICICI bank is buying Bank of Rajastan is now confirmed, few months before news channels analysed the Tayal's situation, but the price is in favour of BoR will dampen the up move for some time. The ICICI will find selling pressure at 889-898 level for time being. The Bharti bottom building is happed at 254-58 level shall hold good and shall get investor support to take it above 272 level to negate the bear pressure as the stock fell from 298 to 254 in 4 straight trading sessios. The Reliance likely to enjoy one more favourable policy suppot for its natural gas APM, so the stock shall close above 1030 in next two sessions to negate the journey to touch 930 level. The Govt. is ready to increase the administered price of natural gas is going to be 6.2 dollars from 4.2 mmbtu. The ONGC is also get support at lower level and shall cross 1039 to make the Nifty floating above 4870 level which may touch tomorrow in the intraday and shall bounce back above 4930 to keep our market as strong from the rest. The short term traders buying at lower levels shall enter the markets at 4830-40 level which may become rock bottom support for Nifty from which the Bulls relentlessly pulled the market to 5380 level. So the Bulls will protect their boundaries.

Sharp rally over????

The markets are crwling with little hope on the immediate future. The world economy is improving but the snetiment is favouring the Bears.
The 3G auction is just pouring money into Govt. kitty and it is even eliminating the marginalised players in the system. The important service is being captured by the strong where they rule by charging services heavyly on the interactive mobile applications be it banking, movies, games and other applications.
The Nifty in a week gained from 4985 to 5212 level in 5 trading sessions is a very good sign for an healthy market. The stocks that out performed are finding more support than the laggards crushed in policy changes. The market covered the lagging sectors like sugar, reality along with the fornt runner banking and auto mobiles. The new highs made by Axis, LICHousing,ING vysya, PFC,REC, BajajAuto, Ashokleyland, Escorts,Titan, Cadila and other stocks are still left with more room. The serious concerns were getting exposed in the commodity sectors like Ferrous and non Ferrous but the precious metals gliters across the globe. The value buying will emerge once the final leg of euphoria gets settled.

The Nifty is good above 5145 and the bottom support is seen at 5118 for the Nifty to target 5480+ provided the global turbulace takes a back seat. The RIL is to stay above 1040-36 level to maintain the sanctity of the Bull move. The ONGC also has to contribute at least not dragging by hovering below 1029-26 level.

The recovery insight….?????

The scar is so deep…..!!!....
The dent made on the head of Nifty is deep enough that could consume longer period to cure.
The situation is ripe for the Bulls only when the Nifty bounces from 4680 level. But to eliminate the retail shorts Nifty rose steeply from 4985 to 5200 level.
The fresh shorts and the retail shortterm gains triggered profit booking that pulled the Nifty by 57 points. The positive news at Reliance with BP and the negative news at telecom 2G free spectrum cost at Bharti, Idea  and RCOM balanced at Nifty level.
The EU crisis is not over but the immediate market correction is completed as far as the SURPRISES at the short term. The Ranbaxy stellar results can create an upside room for more than 25% from these level. The Kotak Mahindra and Hindalco results are good and are in expected lines. The Vedanta Group is attracting the Environmental Ministry overlook on the Orissa plant and tribal issue ( AN ARTICLE TO BE PUBLISHED YESTERDAY ITSELF)……………………………………………………………………………………………………….

The continued rise of IIP numbers for more than 6 months above 10% is a good sign of recovery but the fears can now grapple over the poduct driven inflation!!!!!!!!
The Nifty could bounce from a low  of 5100 level to 5175 is a very good sign but it is a blessing in disaster as the sentiment damage happening with the Govt. policies is more concerned as favouring the few and damaging the core. The next battle will be on the intentions of encouraging the Indian corporates to be sold to foreigner in the teleco sector???.
This sense of insecurity can trigger a serious sell off by the vested interest parties as the negative news has wide spread reach than the counter part of positive economic liberalisation.
Anyway to live with the numbers as of now and every time, the present scenario favours the Bears solong the Nifty trades below 5185-93 level and the Bulls gain their collective strength above 5223.

The RIL is now at the cross roads as the 1093 level is approaching and the shortterm gains made are huge to book profits. The Banking sector AXIS has still potential to move up but only when it touches again at 1223-16 level. The SBI seems started moving in Southward as the counter faces resistance at 2296-91 level. The ICICI may find it difficult to trade above 929 level. The Tata Steel poised to cover the resistance at 593-96 level, fails the the lower levels are offing.
The so called Bull grip, Tata Motors shall cross the 826 high to maitain the Bull support. The Bear hug Bharti has support at 240 level and below that level is a buying opportunity. The Govt is going to announce some favourable policies to 3G winner and Bharti to gain the most.The ONGC is seriously facing resistance at 1046-51 level now likely to get support at 1015-11 level. Incase the stock goes below the support level is a bad omen to Nifty.

No easy up move…

The Nifty could stay above 5085 level as expected to show the resilence to fall but the up move for future is not assured, so not so easy as it happed a week days before.
The RIL good above 1029 and weak below 1013, is though weak but the court order can chart the future course of action. There are number of companies got the IT notices and the issue may shadow the up move as many sponsers on their radar. The Europe is grappled with the financial Greece trouble and the UK election uncertainity cannot be ruled out as the future govt. may be of coalition, as per the reports.
The Nifty neighter broke the down side support nor the upside resistance. The Tatamotors trades above 847 then the markets are strong and Nifty for early consolidation. Incase it trades below 826 then the Nifty may see lower levels.
The metals are not out of bear pressure until Sail trades above 220 and Ster trades above 780 level. The SBI came out with the JV news may see profit booking below 2250 level and may move futher up above 2290 level.

Does this a severe fall ...???

The Nifty lowers levels are expected but the reasons for the fall are more serious than the technicals and likely to turn out to be a serious blow to markets. The heavy weights now will follow the trend and weigh pressure on the Nifty. If this happens then the Nifty is capped at 5220 for some time now and may take months to recover. The Nifty may find it difficult to bounce to higher levels if it trades below 5080 level for more than 3 trading sessions.and the low shall not trade below 4985-5015 level at any given point of time.
The RIL may be due to the anticipation of the favourable court order ( RNRL-RIL case), could stay above 1000 level but the support can be expected from 983 level. The SBI,  star performer may find support from 2220-14 level. This could even become an indicator for the temporary bottoming of Nifty. The Tata Motors is another Bull scip which may find buyers at 803-07 level form where the Nifty also likely to get bounce or by below 10 more rupees a sure bounce is expected in the scip and in Nifty.
The world markets are getting effect with China’s exnomic policies and bruing asset bubble. The commodity stocks got hammered due to this reason but they bounce with vengence as the Indian economy is fast growing, so is the US. For now, there are no rules for this week at least, likely to loose 5-6 percent on the Index, wow basis due to the emotional street involvent is an indicator to go by.

The Nifty at cross roads???

The bears gain strength when the Nifty trades below 5230 level and the bulls may try to push it above the threshold level at 5252-63 range. The Nifty is getting consolidation with lower level buying but the fall to 5080 level is imment before the take to higher level is expected.
The fall by 55 points gave consolidation of the tech majors and the the reality sector. The JSW steel better than expected results can take the Tatasteel to again to 635-640 level and the DLF can touch 323-21 level. The Bombay slum development projects to the reality majors can prop the further fall.
The fall though happened due to the correction in metal majors and the reliance along with correction banking majors may find buyers. The Nifty will feel the real pressure from bears when it fails to cross the 5251 level. The Tata Motors, Infy, ONGC and SBI may correct further along with Reliance to bring the Nifty to lower levels and the rest will follow them.
Incase Nifty trade above 5229 level and the low is above 5209 level then the markets may find some buyers again. The longterm buying is happening evey time Nifty fall to 5200 level.
The major fall happened in the second rung PSU banks due to their poor performance. The South India bank, Indian Bank, Central bank and Union bank attracted exist option at higher level. They same will happen to the majors due to the inflation concerns. The power equipment majors lile ABB fell due to poor forecast. The markets showed real weakness and likely to continue in the mid and small cap stocks.
The metal & mineral companies like Sesa Goa, Guj NRE are facing the heat of relentless rise of Rupee. The oil importing companies are enjoying the same at the otherend.
The RIL has to trade above 1031 in the early trade and to close above 1039 to review the situation, otherwise the counter is under severe bear pressure. The ICICI has to trade above 1042 level and low shall not breach below 925. The Tata Motors though under bull grip can see profit book wthout crossing high 874-76 level. The Tata steel in the morning has to cross the resistance at 618 to negate the pressure.

STILL VALID..

The article covered in the Business standard is still Valid.The Nifty is in the range bound, looking for enough shorts to build before gearing up for the final target beyod 5480. Please read.....
Next target is 5,450  Devangshu Datta / New Delhi April 12, 2010, 0:41 IST

Resistance above 5,375 .The market made net gains, and recorded a new 52-week high of 5,399 points (Nifty) before settling to close at 5,361.75 for a week-on-week gain of 1.35 per cent. The Sensex was up 1.36 per cent while the Defty rose 2.76 per cent on the back of a rupee surge.
Volumes improved in both cash and derivatives markets. For the first time after the Budget, domestic institutions and FIIs were both net buyers in unison. The BSE 500 was up 1.7 per cent while the Junior rose 1.8 per cent and the Midcaps was ahead 2.92 per cent.
Outlook: It looks as though the market has some upside left and a target of about 5,450 could be achieved next week. Right now, the Nifty is straining to overcome resistance in the 5,350-5,400 zone. This is week 10 of an intermediate uptrend so it may be close to maturity. On the downside, there is support in roughly 50 point intervals below the current price. The support at 5,200 seems particularly strong.
Rationale: The continuing pattern of rising peaks and rising troughs confirms the uptrend. The synchronisation of institutional attitude and the improved volumes and breadth are good signals. But there is a lot of resistance above current levels and in absolute terms, volumes aren’t great. So, the market could slog through a narrow range despite its apparent Northwards bias.
Intermediate trends generally last between 6-12 weeks though they can last longer if they are in phase with the long-term trend like this one. The last phase often sees a sudden explosion of volumes and a sharp rise. Barring such a volume expansion, the Nifty will be unable to overcome resistance above 5,450.
Counter-view: Momentum signals aren’t very good. The intermediate trend is nearly mature. A trend reversal next week cannot be ruled out. A short-term correction could pull the market down to support at 5,200. If it drops below that point, it would be prudent to assume that the intermediate trend is correcting though that wouldn’t be confirmed.
Bulls & Bears: IT stocks saw weakness and the CNXIT was down 0.55 per cent. This could be a danger signal since Infosys result kicks off the full year result season and the strong rupee has already led to cutbacks in expectations. It could have been even worse except for short-covering on Friday.
Financials were strong in general. So were a host of interest-sensitive engineering and construction businesses. Power equipment and cement were pretty strong as well. Signals were mixed in sectors such as real estate and metals where movements appear to be stock-specific rather than sector-driven. FMCGs were weak with persistent selling in Hindustan Unilever and ITC. Telecom started strong and closed weak. The sector could see more news-driven volatility as 3G auctions play out. Energy is also volatile in the face of rising crude prices. Reliance Industries looked strong however.

Heat & Mansoon series begins

The Nifty could close APRIL SERIES at arround 5260 level, maintained no gain no loss on month on month basis. The PSU banks and other banks made their journey to North. The RIL has crossed the resistance at 1036-39 level and the Ster made a decent rally. The Tata Motors and SBI are in bull grip slong stays above 726 and 2250 level. The major looser are in IT- Mindtree and Educomp, the Ultratech cements.
The Nifty could gain strenth only when RIL and ONGC find some buyers at higher levels. The steep runup in the banking sector may look for some consolidation but the upper level are nearing top.The banking gaint SBI has good support and in full Bull grip above 2250-48 level and ICICI has to stay above 964-66 level to consider the banking stocks has further legs to go. The RIL has serious resistance at 1060 level, the ONGC find resistance at1069-72 level.
The good news for reality sector is the concessions offered by reducing the tax and the urban poor get tax exemptions is a boost to the slum developers and specially to Mumbai and Delhi based reality sector copanies. Earlier it was the mall construction but now it will be slum constuction cats and dogs billionaires. The new mantra will hold for next two to three years.
The Nifty is facing resistance at 5273 level and again at 5293 level. Incase the Nifty stays above the second resistance level the bears needs to take a close look at the positions taken in anticipation of fall. The Bulls are enjoying the good results of corporate India be it tech, banks or oil and gas.
The Pharma sector dependant on foreign pastures, likely to see some pressure in future as the rupee is strenthening and likely to continue the trend for next 6-12 monthe down the line. The reality and infra/construction majors yet to come out with numbers. The good mansoon can trigger further rally otherwise the bulls look for the life saviour news.

F&O squareoff…

There huge retail positions built over the last onemonth once the Nifty has crossed the resistance level at 5280 level. Now it is the same built up now placing weight at the d-day-closing ,Thursday.


The Nifty has gone no where as the last month closure was at 5260 level and now it is close to it. As a matter of fact most beaten down sector of this month baring the Infosys, tech gaints and RIL. The DLF is well above last month close. The Tata Motors as of now is the best gainer over Rs 100 to todays close. The Reliance is the worst effected by 70 rupees due to the forthcoming Judgement, as the tussle with brother costed, speculators betting on Anil.
The ster results and Bonus with spit may hold the price above 800 level but Tata steel and Sail got affected by bea hammering. Now it was the Reliance gas finding news that needs to keep the stock above 1031-36 level, as this guides Nifty, consists more weightage and by sentiment also.
The Bharti results are not bad due to fierece competition existing with the new entrants. The stock likely to close above 303 level as the 3G is to be closed. The tech majors may get some shortcovering support and RIL support may prop up the Nifty to float at 5200 level.

Waning strengh ….

The Nifty is good above 5265 but facing serious resistance at 5370-65 level, despite of repeated attempts by the Bulls to gain strength but became futile efforts. The positive side of the market is that the bull are in controle of the situation but waning as days pass by. The market is revolving arround the 5260-65 level for the last 25 trading sessions with arange of 5160-5360 but the trading volumes increased considerbly is a caution.
The earlier suggested levels are met and now the retacing is happening be it DLF, Bharti, Ster, Tata steel, Reliance and ICICI. The upward movement is still exists in Tata motors, Axis Bank, SBI, Bank of Baroda, Bank India and other PSU banks. The state owned ONGC is now calling for major policy decisions that can trigger a rally above 1071-75 level, possible likely when the next spel of upward journey of Nifty begins. The bears took decent controle over the cement major ACC and Indiacements.
Relcap is creating a bottom support at 730 level but the high capped at 748, aither a break out can offer decent profits. Infosys high resistance is at 2751-55 level and lower support pegged at 2715 level but the buying oportunity is emerging at 2658-65 level for this month F&O. The Reliance is having support at 1050 is likely to be challenged but the immediate support is at 1021-24 level for decent gains. The inflation rate hike dilemma is hurting DLF and HDIL to paricipate in the rise where as the Bharti is down on expectation of poor numbers. The IT majors like TCS and Wipro lkely to get support below 2-3%of their recent lows. The M&M,Ster are classic examples of bounce back. The Sesa goa impact on bad news may get support at 410-415 range to get a bounce to touch 455-61 level.

Time to watch the fight......

The serious Bull supporting traders so surprised by  Nifty at 5180 level but it may be a big opportunity for those whose move to cover the shortsof their 5350 level. The early move of fall triggered when the Nifty low cut the 5345 level and the ONGC cut the 1093 and the worst support case at 1081 level.
The major stocks except Hero Honda, Tatamotors, Infy, TCS wipro and such robust strength stocks, all other shed their 10-13% of their recent highs and the weak counters like ONGC, SAIL shed more than that. Now the market is grappled with fear of global shock if not melt down due to the GOLDMAN. The hiding of facts is known to markets even before the SEC notice as they know in advance by 6 months when the Govt served notices. So it took the market makers to move to two years high in the global indices level, the news broke, just take a brake.
Any way, now we have to deal with the situation and the situation for Bulls is not yet worse. The Nifty took good support for the day at 5160 level but the skewed move of the Nifty movers is a cause of concern.
The yesterday leaders like DLF, Tata Steel, JSW, SesaGoa on the bourses are severely beaten down due to domestic news like inflation and controlling measure to contain inflation. The RBI is going to take stringent measures that affect the real estate and the liquidity in the system. The stocks may find support or hammering but it is certain that the markets are unlikely to cross 5375 level in the next 20 days to one month as the triggers are drying up to charge the Bulls.
Apart from the specific case, the Index will be in good health only when the high crosses 5245-50 level and closes above 5224-28 level by tomorrow evening. The ONGC shall close above 1015 level and high shall cross 1024-26 level, is a good sign to the Nifty. The Nifty is very likely to touch 5080 level for a reasonable bounce but for tomorrow short covering shall happen with out fail. To confirm the same, the major stocks shall cross the highs to take of the resistance like ONGC shall cross the high of 1024, RIL shall cross1077/1084-good, DLF shall cross 324/326 is good, the ster shall cross 841, Bharti shall cross 312, Sail shall cross 227,SBI shall cross 2047, where as ICICI has to cross 939, then we can confirm that the emerging markets are attracting buying.

The "either way" move.....

The easing inflation fattened the Nifty with support drawing from Russia’s Putin tour to India. The NTPC effort to meet the power demand is Reliance gain, So today RIL shall cross the resistance stated yesterday and then may fall to bears but that didn’t deter the bulls to holdon. Now the Nifty is in positive teritory and bulls have 60points advantage.
The much stated visit shall provide answers to the heavy weight laggard to rise to a respectable level to touch 1015+. The US markets are offering negative cuse but we made a decent advance to stay above 5092 level. But the bulls as stated earlier may yield to bear pressure as it looks on the charts. The metal sector especially the ferrous now at cross roads will find its way for next major move. As such there was no major deviation from the yesterdays levels but the DLF and HDIL are looking South, may loose 3-5% if DLF fails to trade above 316 and HDIL above 314.
The IT majors may find few takers than the offerings due to the sustained rally from the budget it gained. So the Wipro will be weak below 700 and TCS below 765 levels.
The markets likely to get pressure from RIL if it fails to trade above 1026 level and the makets fails to trade above 5123-26 level, then the metals and reality bite the dust and the banks bull unwindening will trigger sharper correction than anticipated. If the markets gets good support at the current closing level the DLF, HDIL,Tatasteel and sesa goa will catchup along with RIL and ONGC. The TataMotors, stake sale by Daimler effect can be traced once the stock trades below 765 and it will pull down the MM and other automajors.

The Bull Run is...but …????

The markets are in Bull grip but the steam is getting over as the developments over the budget bets are unfolding.
The major Nifty weitage stocks made the yearly highs especially the counters that triggered the current rally like Banks, IT majors, automobiles, cements and to some extent metals.
The serious drawback so far is the lack luster participation from the energy/oil sector majors, be it Reliance, ONGC, CAIRN,NTPC, Tatapower and the sideways movement in Bharti, RCOM and DLF also holding a cap on Nifty at 5135-40 level.
The favourable news like Nifty getting listed and the US futures getting listed in NSE may give some boost to overall market for sure.The strengthening of dollar can put value edition to the ITs and pharma but seriously impact the crude importers.

• The Nifty levels are in positive territory so long it trades above 5090 and gain strength above 5126 level. The RIL is pulled out of the deep sinking position but not out of woods unless it trades above1020-22 level, the positional carriers can hold the stock upto 993-95 level.
• Incase RIL fails to trade above 1036 in couple of days, it is heading south to touch 850 first and next 801-806 level.
• The Nifty has reasonable support below 100 points to todays closing. The TataMotors, Tatasteel, Jindal steel, Ster and ONGC are becoming weak as of now. The steel output and the usage figures fillup some positive feel shall keep the TataSteel above 620 levels to avert the said damage. 
• TataSteel is weak below 609 and good above 618, SBI is good above 2040 weak below 2020, ICICI is weak below 915 good above 925, RIL is weak below 1002 good above 1018, ONGC is weak below 1093-95 good above 1105, Ster is good above 816-20 weak below 801-798 level for this day. 
• The territory fight from bulls will be over if the Nifty trades below 5103 level and bulls gain strength only when it absorbs the gains from the Budget run at lower level.

BUDGET “OUT” –BUDGET

Please consider this is to buget out your self to tune in line with the actual budget placed by our FM. These suggestions carry very less importance as the actual budget be out by 12 noon today.

The major economic concerns now India is facing- FISCAL deficit, which is quite high. The main reason is the populist measures adopted for the last 3 years and accumilated pressure from the recent recession in the world economy, mainly from US. As we are partly celebrating the global recessionary impact, forced us to accept to stimulate the slowing down economy by pumping extra unbudgeted money into the system to float above the much debated rate of growth above 7.5-8%.
Now we are propelling our growth above the normal claims in numbers but the inflation is eating the savings. So there is no big joy to FIIs or to make call for FDIs to huge gains for the investments, so is our stock markets, performing to the tunes, is no special event at all. The inflation cutting measure may tighten the fund availability that may effect the sentiment in the stock marke as well.
With this backdrop, the FM will decide the allocation with concerns from the economists,

Socialists. The populist welfare measures as the key driving force for all the Governments, a model now globally accepted. The share sale of PSUs will be made to adjust the fiscal deficit. This will encourage some favours to some sectors and withdrawl of stimulus impacts many.
The funds allocation: as usual the defence sector will get the lions share. The Govt. will allow more private participation in defence projects. The eduction sector will open to foreign universiities. The agriculture sector will get the boost with subsidy to micro nutrients. The rural employment schemes will get 50% more hike and rural infra focus will be more. The health care will get good boost so is the corporate hospitals and pharma. The insurance sector will get good boost.
The FM very likely to reduce the surcharge on equity transactions and on corporate tax. The anomility existing to DIIs and FII s will be levelled. The implementation of the GST will be announced, may be by next fiscal. The customs duty will be increased on imported raw materials like MEG ect that benefit Reliance. The stimulus package will be continued to Textile sector.

The excise duty will be increased on tobaco products. The excise duty will be increase on small cars and diesel cars. The oil and Gas secor will attarct more taxes. The steel sector excise duty likely to be increased.
The Govt may allow cheaper raw material to boost the steel and cement sectors by reducing duties on coke and scrap. There could be increase of fund availability to roads, seaports-and airports. There will be a clear message on boosting the housing sector, especially for poor. The banking sector will get boost to raise capital to gear up for mega expansions of Indian corporate sector, may allow to raise foreign caiptal easily.
The customs duty will be levied on power equipment and bulk drugs especially Pencilin-G imports. The govt may allow duty free imports for 3-G equipments and wimax. The announce ment on e-governanace and UID will boost the IT companys and telecos.
On over all pro-poor, rural demand driven, market nutral slightly positive biased budget is expected.

The threats and the opportunies perceived are:
Automobile sector get effected. Banking sector will get boost, cement nutral, construction-infra- the support continues, Housing good boost, compuer education-good, the IT demand creation locally but attract more taxes, durables attract taxes, engineering sector attarct taxes/neutral, Banking and financials- boost, breverages- attract taxes, Pharma- boost to research and hopitals boost, Textiles boost to cootton but not to synthetic, teleco-demand boost, shipping boost, Agro products-retail mall culture- attract taxes, agro inputs –boost, Power-neutral petrol and gas- negative, subsidies will be reduced –good to ODC, renewable enegry will get very good boost, nuclear power kick start, fertisers –good.entertaiment attract taxes so is IPL.

Now the markets will have something to give response to budget. The Nifty above 4885-4915level will take to 5240-50 level and then to 5480+. The ICICI has to trade above 835 levels,Bharti has to trade above 298, Reliance above 1020, DLF above309. The markets are now dependant on the budgetary supports and the cut in corporate tax can trigger the Bull Run. Incase the sentiment get hurt Nifty trades below 4800-4760 the go to first 4500-4530 or even lower to 4360-80 level is not ruled out. But as of now bulls are better positioned and will in short term.

Correction OVER ???? or OVER correction !!!!!!!!!

The regular readers do understand that the markets corrected more than anticipated, trading even below the expected 4900 level which has now become a strong resistance to scale up. The FII are engrossing the profits made all these days in sectors that affect the most in future like banking, motors, pharma and refinery sectors that out performed and they rule the Nifty anyway.

The economy is heading for a testing time with out the stimulus package. The US economy is going to do well as the world is now recognized the social sector spending for a sustainable dignity of life. So the spending in health care and the alternative energy will through big opportunity to us.

We are now focusing on infrastructure building hand in hand with social sector spending through NREGS and other rural economy spending. The coming budget will be more rural infra and farm spending which proved a big success to our economy. So no more cuts to corporate facilities or no more favours to corporate demands. The bulging fiscal deficit will be addressed through sale of PSUs and the governing is doing business for long time. So it will help the markets to float above these levels for some time.
The concern in food inflation now crack the foundations of the markets due to more stringent actions to controle the money circulation and inflationary rise no longer desirable to emerging markets. As a whole, the markets may not have pre-budget rally due the local and the global concerns.

The deep cut is not over for the markets so long it trades below the 4830 level. The bulls were captivated in the lower band of 4950 and 4830 level. The strong cues needed to pierce the resistance to release the market from the bear grip.
The big boy Reliance has suddenly dropped its strength to move up once it dropped below 1090 level (pls. read earlier postings). Now the markets will have something to offer to bulls only when the RIL trades above 1020 level and Nifty above 4885 level. The ICICI has to trade above 835 levels, a minimum of 821-25 is required. The markets are now dependant on the budgetary supports and the cut in corporate tax can trigger the Bull Run which is possible way to encourage investments for plough back method.