Fifty stocks that returned upto 1,634% since last Sensex peak

Fifty stocks that returned upto 1,634% since last Sensex peak
By ET Now | 1 Nov, 2013, 01.18PM IST
MUMBAI: It took the BSE benchmark Sensexover five years and nine months to make a new top. The Sensex has breached its previous all-time high of 21,206.77 made on January 08, 2008.
The recent rally on the Sensex, which pushed the index to all-time high of 21,293.88, has been on the back of strong FII flows after the US Fed said it would continue with its easy monetary policy.
The US central bank in its meeting this month reiterated its stand to continue to purchase government bonds. While there are concerns that the tapering of quantitative easing may begin in December 2013 itself, a majority of analysts expect it to start only by March 2014.
The rally of Sensex from previous high to the fresh high has been led by consumers goods, pharma, FMCG & technology stocks.
There are 10 Sensex stocks which have gained by over 100 per cent in that period.
Out of them, three stocks have gained between 200-300 per cent, one stock has surged between 300-400 per cent and another one has surged over 400 per cent.
There are eight Sensex stocks which are down by over 25 per cent.
In Sensex A group, there are 50 stocks which gained by over 100 per cent. Among them, 21 stocks have gained between 200 and 300 per cent, eight stocks surged between 300 and 400 per cent while six stocks have rallied over 400 per cent.
There are 44 stocks which lost by over 50 per cent in that period.
Following is the table of Sensex and A group companies that gave returns upto 1,634% since last all-time high:

	Close Price
	Name	31-Oct-13	10-Jan-08	% Change
1	TTK Prestige	3,313	191	1634%
2	Eicher Motors	3,893	381	921%
3	Lupin	887	118	650%
4	GlaxoSmith C H L	4,692	683	587%
5	Godrej Consumer	869	128	576%
6	Sun Pharma.Inds.	608	109	456%
7	Ipca Labs.	683	142	382%
8	Amara Raja Batt.	313	65	379%
9	M & M Financial	283	60	369%
10	Asian Paints	538	116	364%
11	Emami	497	113	342%
12	TCS	2,108	487	333%
13	Castrol India	307	74	316%
14	Berger Paints	230	56	310%
15	NestleBSE 2.26 % India	5,592	1,442	288%
16	IndusInd Bank	446	115	287%
17	Motherson Sumi	270	72	275%
18	HCL Technologies	1,093	296	269%
19	Coromandel Inter	221	60	268%
20	Bata India	914	250	265%
21	Dr Reddy's Labs	2,456	690	256%
22	Apollo Hospitals	906	259	250%
23	Titan Inds.	266	78	242%
24	Strides Arcolab	871	259	236%
25	Cadila Health.	663	197	236%
26	Shree Cement	4,430	1,330	233%
27	Mcleod Russel	273	83	230%
28	LIC HousingBSE 1.27 % Fin.	225	70	223%
29	CRISIL	1,123	350	221%
30	Dabur India	179	57	214%
31	Pidilite Inds.	288	93	211%
32	ITC	334	110	204%
33	United Breweries	925	305	203%
34	BritanniaBSE -0.21 % Inds.	939	310	203%
35	Hero Motocorp	2,077	687	202%
36	Marico	212	71	198%
37	Bajaj Fin.	1,351	476	184%
38	Shri.City Union.	1,015	375	171%
39	Colgate-Palm.	1,239	462	168%
40	Hind. Unilever	609	229	166%
41	Tata Motors	380	145	162%
42	MRF	15,763	6,630	138%
43	Havells India	739	321	130%
44	Glaxosmit Pharma	2,423	1,078	125%
45	M & M	888	402	121%
46	Aurobindo Pharma	217	99	120%
47	Oracle Fin.Serv.	3,215	1,519	112%
48	UltraTech Cem.	1,966	930	111%
49	Infosys	3,309	1,602	107%
50	Cipla	414	202	105%

Data as on 31st Oct 2013http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stocks-in-news/fifty-stocks-that-returned-upto-1634-since-last-sensex-peak/articleshow/25050708.cms

Mid-cap and Small-cap indices....40% below their historic highs!!!!!!!!!!

Deepak Korgaonkar  |  Mumbai  

October 24, 2013 Last Updated at 09:55 IST

Mid-cap, small-cap indices far away from new highs
At 0950 hours ,the BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices trading at 6,034 and 5,892 respectively are trading over 40% below their historic highs.Even as the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty are heading towards new all-time highs, the mid-cap and small-cap indices are still far away from their lifetime highs they had scaled on January 8, 2008.
Today, the Bombay Stock Exchange's (BSE) 30-share index S&P BSE Sensex crossed 21,000 mark and currently trading at 20,988 points is less than 250 points away from its historic intra-day high of 21,207 touched on January 10, 2008.
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) 50-share CNX Nifty quoting nearly 125 points away from its record high of 6,357 touched on January 8, 2008. The index was trading at 6,245 at 0945 hours.
However, the BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices trading at 6,034 and 5,892 respectively are trading over 40% below their historic highs. The mid-cap index had touched a lifetime peak of 10,245.81 and the small cap touched an all-time high of 14,239.24 in January, 2008.
Data suggests that the BSE small-cap and BSE mid-cap indices have underperformed the Sensex in the recent past. So far in the current calendar year 2013, the Sensex has gained 8%, while the BSE Small-cap index has lost 20%. The BSE Mid-cap index, in the same period, is down by 15%.
The mid-cap and small-cap indices track the performance of companies with relatively smaller market capitalisation. There are total 654 stocks in the BSE mid-cap and small-cap index, which accounts nearly 18% of total BSE market capitalisation.
Among the sector classification five BSE sectoral indices – IT, Bankex, healthcare, fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and auto have touched new all-time highs in the recent past.
Outside of these five sectors, the remaining six sectors have a lot more work to do before getting back to new records. Power, capital goods, metal, realty and oil and gas all hit their record highs in 2007 and 2008, and all five sectors need to rally between 60% and 900% before they see new highs. Consumer durable index trading at 5,973, a 27% lower from its record high of 8,221 touched on December last year.
The realty sector hit its all-time high in 2008 at a level of 13,848.09. With the sector currently trading at a price of 1,391, it needs to rally 896% before reaching its record high.
Meanwhile, out of 527 actively traded stocks as many as 217 stocks available at half of their market price as on January 8, 2008.
Aban Offshore, Suzlon Energy, Educomp Solutions, Unitech, Jai Corp, HDIL, IVRCL, Punj Lloyd, HCL Infosystems, BEML and Lanco Infratech are down sharply between 90-98% from their January 2008 levels.
However, around 192 stocks that recorded gain over the period, the market price of 93 stocks more-than-double during the period.
TTK Prestige, Eicher Motors, Page Industries, Hawkins Cookers, Kajaria Ceramics, Cera Sanitaryware, Ajanta Pharma, Relaxo Footwear and Symphony have seen price appreciation over six-fold. 

http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/mid-cap-small-cap-indices-far-away-from-new-highs-113102400160_1.html

$1.9 trillion opportunity..... digitalisation ....

Shivani Shinde Nadhe  |  Pune  

October 22, 2013 Last Updated at 14:40 IST

Digitalisation a $1.9 trillion opportunity for tech companies: Gartner
Devices to be largest IT spenders by 2017, pushing telecom to second place There is good news for the $108 billion Indian IT industry. The traditional IT services offering related to application development and management may be shrinking, but the industry has in front of it $1.9 trillion opportunity due to the digitalisation process that will encompass every aspect of the economy globally.

The initial signs of this are evident in the way IT spends are moving away from traditional verticals. According to Gartner over the next four years devices will be the biggest segment in terms of IT spends, pushing away the current telecom segment. The Indian devices market will emerge as the largest segment of IT spend in India by 2017. Growth within this segment will be driven by the sale of mobile phones which will be amongst the fastest growing sub segments within the Indian IT industry. Mobile phone revenue will total $26 billion in 2017 and will account for 76.4 percent of device revenue and 28 percent of overall IT spend in India in the year 2017.

“Historically telecom has been the largest IT spender but this is slowly device spending is becoming the biggest spender. India too is in line with this global phenomenon,” said Partha Iyengar, distinguished analyst and Gartner India head of research. 
IT spending in India is projected to total $71.3 billion in 2014, a 5.9% increase from the $67.4 billion forecast for 2013, according to Gartner. IT services will record the strongest revenue growth at 12.1%, Software revenue will grow 10% and the telecommunication services segment that accounts for 42.1% of the Indian ICT market, is set to grow 2% in 2014.

“The digital world is here and this results in every budget being an IT budget; every company being a technology company; every business is becoming a digital leader; and every person is becoming a technology company,” said Peter Sondergaard, senior vice president at Gartner and global head of Research.  
He further added, “This is resulting in the beginning of an era: the Digital Industrial Economy. The Digital Industrial Economy will be built on the foundations of the Nexus of Forces (which includes a confluence and integration of cloud, social collaboration, mobile and information) and the Internet of Everything by combining the physical world and the virtual.” 
The telecommunications services market which includes fixed and mobile, data and voice services will continue to be the largest IT segment in India with IT spending forecast to reach $30 billion in 2014. The devices market, which includes mobile phones, PCs, tablets and printers is expected to total $23.5 billion in 2014, a 6 percent increase from 2013. IT services will record the fastest growth amongst the various segments, and it is projected to grow 13 percent to reach $11.2 billion in 2014. Software will account for $4.1 billion in revenue. 
“Mobile smart devices have taken over the technology world. By 2017, new device categories: mobile phones, tablets, and ultra-mobile PCs will represent more than 80 percent of device spending. Gartner also forecasts that by 2017, nearly half of first-time computer purchases will be a tablet. Mobile is the destination platform for all applications,” said Sondergaard. 
Mobility, cloud and social are among the top 10 Indian CIO priorities for 2013. As the Nexus of Forces gains acceptance, it will continue to drive enterprises and society toward a pervasively digital future and will drive a discussion between IT and business leaders to become more digital.

“The long term growth projections of the Indian market continue to be positive. India is still a vastly underpenetrated market and growth within smaller towns and cities will continue to provide growth for IT vendors across categories, with the consumer market and the small business segment driving this. The rising disposable income and greater consumer awareness are other factors driving the growth of the Indian IT market,” said Iyengar.
 Future of IT Suppliers
The digital world runs faster for many traditional IT suppliers. In the past, the top technology companies reigned over the industry for long periods of time. However, now the leaders in areas such as cloud and mobile were not on many CIO’s radar five years ago.

“What many traditional IT vendors sold you in the past is often not what you need for the digital future. Their channel strategy, sales force, partner ecosystem is challenged by different competitors, new buying centers, and changed customer business model,” Sondergaard said. 

http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/digitalisation-a-1-9-trillion-opportunity-for-tech-companies-gartner-113102200468_1.html

MONEY STORED IN METALS...!!!!!

Jitendra Kumar Gupta  |  Mumbai  

October 22, 2013 Last Updated at 22:07 IST

More gains in store for metal stocks
While the news flow is positive, a picky approach would yield better results, say analysts, who prefer Tata Steel, Sesa Sterlite & NalcoAfter the broader indices scaled three-year highs, it was the turn of the underperformers. Last week, metal stocks were the biggest gainers, with the BSE Metal Index rising 3.4 per cent, led by Tata Steel, Sesa Sterlite, Hindustan Zinc and Hindalco. Positive news flow in the recent past has turned the Street positive on metal companies. Earlier, the postponing of quantitative easing tapering by the US Federal Reserve to early 2014 had improved sentiments as the delay meant liquidity infusion by the US central bank would continue, thereby supporting growth. The latest news comes from China, which posted better-than-expected GDP growth of 7.8 per cent for the September quarter. This is good news, given China is a large consumer of metals. However, analysts say there are more gains ahead, but investors should be selective while considering metal companies, as they see hurdles for some.
Within the metal space, the biggest gainer is Tata Steel, up 70 per cent from its lows of Rs 195 in August to Rs 338 (up 10 per cent in one week). However, analysts say the gains are more to do with stability in the European business and lower valuations. Despite the run-up, Tata Steel is trading 0.8 times its book value and six times its enterprise value to operating profits, based on FY15 estimates. The domestic steel sector though may face growth challenge as demand from construction, automobile and consumer goods could take some time to recover. In a recent note, the World Steel Association lowered India's steel demand growth estimates to 3.4 per cent in 2013 against the earlier estimates of 5.9 per cent. Analysts believe there could be pressure on the margins as a result of higher input cost and increase in freight rates. However, since Tata Steel’s domestic operations are among the low-cost steel producers globally (and fully integrated), it would stand out among Indian peers. And, with expanded capacities, it could capture market share.
In this context, Tata Steel remains the top pick of most analysts. "Tata Steel remains our preferred play in the steel space as JSW Steel continues to grapple with ore procurement issues while SAIL is struggling with its inherent structural weaknesses of high costs and inefficiency," said Ashutosh Somani, who tracks the sector at JM Financial in a note. In the case of JSW Steel, analysts have highlighted issues of lower earnings visibility because of the merger of the erstwhile Ispat (now JSW Ispat). Due to the merger, broking house IIFL expects JSW’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) a tonne to drop from Rs 7,110 in FY13 to Rs 5,998 in FY14. Both high cost operations of JSW Ispat and higher interest cost are expected to weigh on the earnings.
"We believe non-ferrous companies are structurally better placed than steel companies in terms of demand and pricing scenario in India," said Motilal Oswal Securities in a recent note. However, in the non-ferrous space, too, analysts are selective. Sesa Sterlite is preferred, as analysts expect it to benefit on an improvement in price, demand and attractive stock valuations. Recent news about working permit for its iron ore mines in Karnataka, the likelihood of Sesa purchasing remaining government stake in Hindustan Zinc and expected higher dividend from Cairn India are seen in positive light.
Positively, except aluminium, which was down marginally, recently, the London Metal Exchange price of copper and zinc has seen risen two-three per cent compared to the average price in the September quarter. If the trend continues, non-ferrous companies should earn better realisations. However, players like Hindalco may remain under pressure. "We remain negative on aluminium plays such as Hindalco, which may be further affected by the new warehouse norms," said Ashutosh Somani of JM Financial.
At the current aluminium prices, experts believe almost half the world aluminium producers are making losses. Prices are subdued due to lower consumption. During January-August, production had exceeded consumption by 1.1 million tonnes (mt) versus 0.5 mt a year ago. Though Hindalco is among the low-cost aluminium producers globally, there are some near-term concerns, say analysts.
"We have a sell rating on Hindalco owing to uncertainty on the commissioning of the captive coal blocks and muted aluminium price or premium outlook. At the current price, it factors in a high Ebitda of $720 a tonne from the enhanced domestic aluminium capacity of 1.3 mt compared to $500 a tonne in FY13 from existing domestic capacity," said Parita Ashar, who tracks the sector at Ambit Capital.
Instead, analysts prefer Nalco, competitive in terms of its cost of production and has large exposure to high-margin alumina business. They say it is sitting on huge cash, almost Rs 19 a share or 55 per cent of the  share price of Rs 35.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/more-gains-in-store-for-metal-stocks-113102200917_1.html

BE CAUTIOUS AT THE TOP.....MAY LEFT WITH PAPER...!!!!!

The Indian markets maintained pause due to the phenomenal rise by more than 135 points in its previous session kept some selling pressure at the top. The Nifty is technically very well placed above 6020 level and it may even see 5950 but it is not advisable to SELL but BUY at lower levels. There is some concern in the TOP banking stocks as un-winding is fast and little roll-over is making nervous, more seriously. Any way for now, the markets are in BULL GRIP and be with the LEADERS.

The Ambuja Cements is ripe for NEWS case in its category. The Tech stocks saw some unwinding except WIPRO which built positions before results. As I mentioned earlier, the stock may correct temporarily but has tremendous potential to cross 700 levels. The HCL tech, TCS and TechMahindra also poised for bigger growth in future.

As mentioned in my earlier postings about “STEEL has good STRENGTH” to offer money and JSW Steel will reward in this category. The big surprise is from RIL side as the stock has not built any significant positions but people prefer to offload. Whereas CAIRN will create big jump may be in Nov series and going forward. The Bharati case is even more surprising to me. I am seriously expecting some BIG news from this counter as there is some relentless unwinding is happening. The Auropharma may see some more upside may touch 250 levels easily. The other big pharma counters like Ranbaxy & SUN are good for long-term bets. 

Rs 3.5 lakh crore...investment projects cleared.....

Cabinet Committee on Investments frees up 92 major investment projects worth Rs 3.5 lakh crore By Vikas Dhoot, ET Bureau | 15 Oct, 2013, 04.00AM ISTNEW DELHI: The Cabinet Committee on Investments, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's initiative to revive investor sentiment, seems to be making some headway in getting stalled projects worth lakhs of crores moving again. As of last week, the panel set up in January had resolved bureaucratic hurdles that had held up 92 major investment projects worth around Rs 3.5 lakh crore, which is about 4 per cent of India's gross domestic product. Public as well as private sector promoters have sought a rescue act from the CCI for around 330 stalled investments with a capital expenditure of over Rs 15.5 lakh crore. The projects that have got a green signal for execution constitute nearly a third of that workload in numbers and about a fifth in terms of investment value. "Over 125 different clearances and approvals were pending for these 92 projects, all of which have been resolved," said a senior government official aware of the development. With the lifting of official impediments, the government has now tasked the Department of Financial Services in the finance ministry to monitor the actual flow of these investments on the ground and report back to the cabinet. Banks have substantial exposures to the stalled projects. The primary mandate of the cabinet's investment panel is to identify projects that entail an investment of Rs 1,000 crore or more in sectors such as infrastructure and manufacturing, and resolve systemic obstacles, including the lack of official clearances. Most of the projects that have got relief thanks to the CCI's intervention are power plants that needed coal supplies to kick off electricity generation. Power sector investments worth Rs 3.09 lakh crore are expected to get off the ground soon, accounting for 90 per cent of the projects resolved by the CCI in terms of investment value. While 70-odd power sector investments can now be commissioned — some of them in this quarter itself, pending issues have been untangled for just two to three projects each in sectors such as roads, steel, railways, oil and gas.  "Fuel supply pacts have already been signed by Coal IndiaBSE 0.65 % and its subsidiaries for power projects with a capacity of around 70,000 MW, following the CCI's diktat in March to allocate fuel for 78,000 MW of proposed generation capacity," said the official. "The government has amply displayed that it is serious (about reviving investments in the country) as most of these investors can now tell their financiers that they have fuel supply agreements in place," Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said at a meeting with infrastructure investors last week. "This doesn't solve all their problems though as the financing environment remains challenging and liquidity is not freely available," he said, adding that management must solve such problems now that the government has done its part. HSBC India chief Naina Lal Kidwai, who also leads industry chamber Ficci, appreciated the CCI's success in clearing these projects, but said a lot more needs to be done. "The CCI's work seems to have begun reflecting in growth numbers, with electricity generation rising by around 10 per cent in September and thermal power plants showing an even sharper 17 per cent increase," she told ET. "We need greater momentum in clearing projects in other critical sectors like roads, oil and gas, and manufacturing. The CCI should also set strict timeframes for official clearances, so that the backlog of stalled projects doesn't keep growing," said Kidwai, stressing that the committee is empowered to review and streamline the procedures followed by ministries to grant statutory approvals.http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/infrastructure/cabinet-committee-on-investments-frees-up-92-major-investment-projects-worth-rs-3-5-lakh-crore/articleshow/24167568.cms

NIFTY for all time HIGH....!!!!

Index Outlook: A new high in sightLOKESHWARRI S. K.
It was on the Diwali day in 2010 that the Sensex hit the high of 21,108. After Friday’s blitzkrieg, investors are wondering if it will be another memorable Muhurrat session on Dalal Street this year. But given the fact that the Sensex is currently just 324 points away from its life-time high of 21,208 and 226 points below the Diwali 2010 peak of 21,108, the move to a new high could happen well before the Diwali fireworks light up the sky.The sense of disbelief, however, lingers that stocks are partying in an environment of slowing economic and corporate earnings growth. But as said earlier, it is best to ride the rally and not agonise over the rationality of it. But do stay vigilant to book profit on your short-term portfolio before the party ends. Stocks were subdued in the early part of the week, as investors awaited the outcome of the US Parliamentary stalemate. But the bulls were back in business on Friday, aided by news of strong foreign investor flows in the month of October.FIIs have purchased stocks worth $1.1 billion so far this month. This lifted the hopes that tapering of the QE will be put off indefinitely, leading to an unending gush of foreign capital in to the country, lifting stock prices higher and higher. If wishes were horses…Economic data continues to be depressing. Wholesale price inflation for September was at a seven-month high driven by price increases in crude oil. Core inflation too accelerated last month. The rupee strengthening above the 61 mark, however, provided some cheer. The next batch of quarterly earnings will preoccupy market participants next week. They will also start prognosticating about the RBI’s next move in the monetary policy meeting scheduled for the end of this month.Oscillators in the daily chart are positioned in the positive zone and moving higher. But it is the movement in the weekly oscillators that is more interesting. They are beginning to emerge into the positive zone. This means the index could be poised to start another leg of the medium-term uptrend.

Sensex (20,882.9) The Sensex has not only breached the short-term target at 20,740, it has also managed a close above it. As explained last week, this alters the medium-term view for the index.It is now possible that the up-move that began from the August low of 17,449 is now breaking into its third leg. This leg has the targets of 21,299 and 22,577. Since the first target is near the previous life-time high of 21,208, that is the level we will need to work with for the time being.If we expand the picture and take the target of the third wave from the 15,748 low in the Sensex, we arrive at the target of 20,201 and then 21,903. In other words, the entire zone between 20,000 and 21,200 is a strong resistance zone where investors need to tread cautiously. Once this zone is surpassed, a rally of 6 to 8 per cent can be expected. For the week ahead, investors can continue to buy in declines as long as the index trades above 20,312. Subsequent supports are at 20,119 and 19,925. Short-term resistances are at 21,108 and 21,207.

Nifty (6,189.3)The Nifty managed to close well above its previous peak of 6,142 last week, paving the way for the rally towards 6,229.4. It now appears that the third leg of the rally from the 5,119 low is currently in motion.This wave has the targets of 6,332 and then 6,723. Since the first target occurs at the index’ life-time high of 6,338, we should expect some hiccups around that level.But if the index manages a move above that level, next targets would be 6,461 and then 6,723.There could be some turbulence next week as the index approaches the 6,230 peak. Immediate supports are at 6,016, 5,958 and 5,900.Traders can buy in declines as long as the index trades above 6,016. The short-term trend will be threatened only on a close below Rs 5,900.Immediate upward targets for the index are placed at 6,229 and 6,338.Global cuesGlobal markets were merry in the second part of the week with the staving-off of the US debt ceiling issue. The S&P 500 rose to a new high and stocks on the Nasdaq too rallied strongly behind Google, that crossed the $1,000-mark on Friday.Many benchmarks went on to record multi-year highs.European indices such as the CAC and Belgium’s BEL20 reached levels last recorded in 2008, while the DAX hit a new life-time high.The Dow put up a rather muted show amidst all this cheer, gaining just 162 points.It is currently hovering just above the key resistance level indicated last week, at 15,334. We stay with the view that the strong move away from this level can take the index to 15,709. Short-term supports for the index are placed at 15,150 and 15,000. The dollar index did not seem too enthused by the debt deal agreement. It declined one per cent more for the week to end at 79.7. Key medium-term trend decider is 79 and break of this level will mean continued weakness in the green-back.

lokeshwarri.sk@thehindu.co.in(This article was published on October 19, 2013)http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/features/investment-world/market-watch/index-outlook-a-new-high-in-sight/article5251744.ece?homepage=true

LIC sells Infy shares worth Rs 3,400 crore!!!!

LIC cuts stake in Infosys to 4.95%; sells shares worth Rs 3,400 crore

By PTI | 20 Oct, 2013, 11.25AM ISTNEW DELHI: State-owned life insurer LIChas pared stake in IT major InfosysBSE 1.41 %to 4.95 per cent during the July-September quarter with sale of shares estimated at around Rs 3,400 crore. The biggest institutional investor in the stock market had 6.72 per cent stake in Infosys during the April-June quarter. As on September 30, it fell to 4.95 per cent as per the latest data available with the stock exchanges. During the January-March quarter, LIC's stake in the country's second largest software services exporter stood at 5.96 per cent. 
Taking into account the current market value of Infosys shares, the 1.77 percentage points decline in LIC's holding in the company would be worth about Rs 3,400 crore. 
The Infosys scrip has moved in a wide range from about Rs 2,300 level to around Rs 3,300 in the past 10 months. Currently, it is trading at Rs 3,300 level on the BSE and had touched 52-week high of Rs 3,360 on October 11 after posting quarterly earnings. 
The July-September period was the first full quarter after co-founder N R Narayana Murthycame out of retirement to become the Executive Chairman of Infosys after it had posted almost two years of disappointing earnings. 
LIC appears to have sold shares at a time when FIIs marginally shored up their stake. 
FIIs' holding in Infosys inched up from 39.55 per cent during the April-June quarter, to 39.93 per cent in the July- September period. 
However, domestic institutional investors shed their holding from 18.28 per cent to 16.16 per cent during the same period, shows the stock exchange data. 
Infosys reported 1.6 per cent rise in net profit during the July-September quarter and had raised the low-end sales forecast for the 2013-14 fiscal to 9-10 per cent from the previously projected 6-10 per cent. 
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stocks-in-news/lic-cuts-stake-in-infosys-to-4-95-sells-shares-worth-rs-3400-crore/articleshow/24427013.cms

CONSOLIDATION for..........

The US Debt DEAL didn't enthuse the markets; on the other hand they are now put to DILEMMA till FEB-14. The Indian markets took the cue a bit early and made carnage on the street on IT pack.The other NIFTY stocks could inch up like Bharati and Bajaj Auto on news....

The Supreme Court remarks on RADIA tapes and further investigation may spoil the TELECOM party. The The AXIS bank results are good as the retail business improved and the profitability was maintained. AXIS has resistance at 1120 level but has potential to touch 1270 and the scrip is moving up the support at 1050 shall not be broken on any bad day. The ICICI is also trading above 930 support level may cross 1080 soon. The only catch is that the markets are waiting for some news to breakout the resistance levels. The COAL SCAM is again on headlines. So the Nifty needed some triggers from the Govt/RBI. The month end policy may bring cheers to Banking sector as the built up is creeping. The OI in Bank of India is building may see some news.

The Nifty OI is increasing but the SWITCH made the NIFTY to hang around 6080-6120 level. The Tata steel OI is hugely built at 279-282 level was maintained and the shorts made in TCS at 2230 level were covered. The long positions built in TECH Mahindra were intact. But the real built up was made in WIPRO. The scrip will easily cross 625-650 level in next two months.

The LT results are expected to be mute due to "Liquidy crunch" and the foreign operations may save due to fall in the rupee value. The big opportunity is about to open in DEFENCE sector is a readymade cake for LT.

The BULL unwinding in HCL Tech, TCS and Rel Infra brought to their lows. The TCS may see bounce from 2030 level and very good pick from 1760 level. The CAIRN is about to make some noise. The scrip may shoot up if it trades above 329 levels. The HDFC may cross 860 if it trades above 818-20 level. The KOTAK will get support at 650-30 level.

NIFTY MAY GAIN from USA debt seal.......!!!!!!!!!!!

The overnight encouraging news from US and the recovery of the Europe markets from their lows may spill some positive effect on the opening BELL and may continue for the day as the markets lost 30 points in the previous session and BANKNIFTY lost more than 450 points from the days HIGH. So recovery may adjust.The markets may stay firm as the results announced are not as bad as the markets take that as SURPRISE. So the BULLs may have the courage to hold for some more time. The NIFTY OI is also adding. The markets may see some adjustments in KM Birla companies as the COAL GATE opened new doors for controversies and endless "Can of Worms"........

The AXIS Bank and HCL Tech Results will be announced today and L&T tomorrow. The RIL has good support at 830-835 for  this series. The stock has potential to lead the NIFTY rally in future and very good BLUE chip for a 1260 range for next 18 months.  The BHARATI though may offer tepid results in this quarter  but has very good potential to touch 420 level.

The Nifty is likely to see some serious SWINGS as the results of the banking stocks are not encouraging but the “Change in the provisions” and “Held to Maturity” saved this quarter to HDFC Bank, INDUS has given good results but lost 8% in value and other Banks may also provide similar results. The street may not give THUMPSUP response and may down grade as the future “Un-Certainties are Un-folding”. The immediate Nifty down side is very much protected at 5850-85 level and it is good to BUY at declines for a “SWING up MOVE”.

The NIFTY will have strong support at 5300 level and the LONG-TERM positions for decent profits can be built from 5300 to 4900 level. The BLUE chips like TCS can be available at sub 1400 level and the HDFC bank may see a comforble level at 450-485 range and the technical are showing weak uptrend and  strong down trend for  other banks like AXIS may see some serous correction down the line to 500 range and ICICI Bank may see 625-580 range. But the immediate future upside is potentially strong for IT and metal space. 

BULLs ARE IN COMMAND......NIFTY FOR 6750...!!!!!

Nifty spread is increasing considerably is a good sign that the BULLS are giving higher premium for their CHASE. The Nifty touched 6200 in the third week of May-2013 saw a serious onslaught of BEAR hammering brought to 5100 level in August-2013. Many analysts said that the markets are out of FII favour, bear grip on Dalal street and ….etc but I clearly mentioned to many that the sharp rally is expected and “It Happened”…Whether people like me predict or not markets will take its course as and when required….it is only “WE”…stay with “WHOM”….is always matters….for making MONEY…..

Now the situation is at cross roads and most are expecting a serious rally from here. The Nifty has reasonable resistance placed at 6330-60 level...means we can expect a HIGH cut at 6239 to 6350..a meager 100 points….The good for doesn’t end here the markets are well positioned for a rally up to 6750. The bottom support at 5770-20 is well positioned but the broad range is 6750-4865.

The results of RIL are not very encouraging despite of the Rupee fall as the rise in crude prices could boost the revenues but the real strength is in boosting the KG basin gas output and the profitability at higher rates prescribed by the Ministry.

The TCS results are far excellent than its counter-part INFY. The stock is poised for a HIGH of 2440 level but may even touch 2620-60 level.  The Infy has resistance at 3480 level may touch 3620 but it is safe to avoid Infy as the Investors will offload seriously. I advised people to stay away as the counter is expected to touch 1200 when it fell below 2400 from a high of 2700 with sharp volume increase!!!!. Then there was some un-expected lobbying by FEW could change the fortunes for NOW. I was also surprised on the comeback of MNM again at the helm.

The HDFC Bank results are good on this economic scenario but the price at which it is ruling may not be possible to stay above 660 level. Although it has some upside potential upto 707,717 to stop loss 757. The Bank-Nifty has resistance at 11428 and 11765-11728 level.

Importance of valuation in portfolio management
P Saravanan | Updated: Oct 15 2013, 17:43 ISTEvery asset — be it financial or real — has a value. The key to successful investing lies in understanding not only what the value is, but also its sources. Every asset can be valued, but some assets are easier to value than others, and the details of valuation vary from case to case.For instance, valuing a real estate property will require different information and different mechanics than that of publicly traded shares of a company.Basis for valuationA principle of sound investing is that an investor does not pay more for an asset than its worth. This is quite logical and obvious, but often it is forgotten . Basically, financial assets are acquired for the cash flow expected from them. So, perceptions of value have to be supported by reality, that is, the price paid for any asset should reflect the cash flows it is expected to generate.Eliminate bias before valuationValuation is neither a science nor an objective search for true value. Most models used in valuation may be quantitative, but the inputs leave plenty of scope for subjective judgments.Thus, the final value arrived is coloured by bias; so that the price gets set first and the valuation follows. The way out is to eliminate all bias before starting on a valuation, but this is easier said than done; the reason being that most investors are exposed to external information, analyses and opinion about a company.But there are ways of reducing bias. The first is to avoid taking strong public positions on the value of a company before the valuation is complete. The second is to minimise, prior to the valuation, the stake investors have in whether the company is under- or over-valued.Arrival of new informationThe value obtained from any valuation model is affected by firm-specific as well as market-wide information. So, the value will change as and when new information is revealed.The information may be specific to the firm, affect an entire sector, or alter expectations for all firms in the market. Information about the state of the economy and the level of interest rates affect all valuations in an economy. A weakening in the economy can lead to a reassessment of growth rates across the board, though the effect on earnings is likely to be the largest at cyclical firms. Similarly, an increase in interest rates will affect all investments, of course, to varying degrees.Underlying assumptions in valuationEven at the end of the most careful and detailed valuation, there will be uncertainty about the final figure arrived as there are assumptions that one makes about the future of the company and the economy. It is unrealistic to expect absolute certainty in valuations. The degree of precision in valuation is likely to vary widely across investments. The valuation of a large and mature company with a long financial history will usually be much more precise than that of a young company in a sector in turbulence.Quantitative modelsnot always betterThere is a general belief that a valuation model that is more complex yields better valuations, but it is not necessarily so. When the models become more complex, the number of input variables needed to value the firm increases, thus bringing in the potential for input errors.While engaging in more complex models, investors should keep in mind the following points: First, adhere to the principle of parsimony, which states that one should not use more inputs than absolutely needed to value an asset; and, second, that there is always a trade-off between the additional benefits of building in more detail and the estimation errors.Markets are inefficientThe general assumption under an inefficient market is that it makes mistakes and investors can find these, often using information that other investors have access to. So, it seems reasonable to say that those who believe that markets are inefficient should spend their time and resources on valuation and those who believe that markets are efficient should buy the shares at the market price as the best estimate of value.Those who believe that the market makes mistakes and buy or sell shares on that basis believe that, ultimately, markets will correct theses mistakes, meaning which they become efficient. Recognising that markets make mistakes and finding them requires a combination of skill and a bit of luck too.To conclude, the role valuation plays in portfolio management is determined by the investment philosophy of the investor. Valuation plays a minimal role in portfolio management for a passive investor, whereas it plays a larger role for an active investor.* The writer is an associate professor of accounting and finance in IIM ShillongThe process* Basis for valuation: An investor should not pay more for an asset than its worth. So, the price paid for any asset should reflect the cash flows it is expected to generate* Eliminating bias: The final value arrived is coloured by bias; so that the price gets set first and the valuation follows. The way out is to eliminate all bias before starting on a valuation. Avoid taking strong public positions on the value of a company before the valuation is complete. Minimise, prior to the valuation, the stake investors have in whether the company is under- or over-valued* New information: The value obtained from any valuation model is affected by firm-specific as well as market-wide information. So, the value will change as and when new information is revealed* Assumptions: Even at the end of the most careful and detailed valuation, there will be uncertainty about the final figure arrived as there are assumptions that one makes about the future of the company and the economy. It is unrealistic to expect absolute certainty in valuations. The degree of precision in valuation is likely to vary widely across investments* Markets are inefficient: The general assumption under an inefficient market is that it makes mistakes and investors can find these, often using information that other investors have access to. So, those who believe that markets are inefficient spend their time and resources on valuation and those who believe that markets are efficient buy the shares at the market price as the best estimate of value

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/importance-of-valuation-in-portfolio-management/1182541/0

LOW GROWTH AND HIGH INFLATION....INDIA at STAGFLATION...!!!!

Indivjal Dhasmana  |  New Delhi  

October 14, 2013 Last Updated at 20:30 IST

Economy moving towards stagflation: CII survey
Stagflation is a situation where economic growth is too low, inflation too high, leading to steady high unemploymentPolicy makers may not accept it, but the Confederation of Indian Industry today said its survey of chief executive officers indicated that the economy is moving towards a situation of stagflation."Indicating that the economy is moving towards a situation of stagflation, majority of the respondents (42%) expected inflation to increase moderately in the second half of the year," CII said in a statement here.Stagflation refers to a situation where economic growth is too low and inflation is too high, leading to a steady high unemployment.The situation indicates a dilemma of sort for policy makers since actions designed to cut inflation may aggravate unemployment situation.CII, however, did not elaborate to say why is it referring to stagflation when the respondents talked of only moderate rise in inflation.Inflation, both in wholesale and retail counters, rose for the month of September driven by vegetable prices, particularly onions. But, even then inflation stood at 6.46 points in wholesale price index terms, and 9.84% on the retail price index basis.Most chief executive officers in the survey joined the league of independent analysts doubting the government's optimism over the economy clocking more than five% economic growth this financial year.However, 32% of them did share the government's projections. These respondents said the economy would register 5-5.5% growth, while 42% voted for 4.5-5%.However, CII director general Chandrajit Banerjee did not rule out over five% economic growth in 2013-14.“We believe that 5% plus growth is still not out of reach. With a significant improvement expected in the growth of agriculture output in the current year, we hope to see an upswing in the sectors, which have traction from rural demand.”As many as 65% of the respondents said that they did not expect revival in investments it before the second quarter of next fiscal. Political uncertainty was ranked as the highest risk factor affecting the business confidence of India Inc, according to a CII’s CEO snap poll conducted at its National Council Meeting.Commenting on the efficacy of the Cabinet Committee on Investment (CCI) in clearing large projects, 56% of the respondents did not feel it had the intended impact on the investments so far at the ground level.“This clearly implies that there is a need for strengthening policy intervention to revive investment demand, both by the Government as well as RBI. Among other critical measures, the Government should be focussing on stepping up its capital expenditure whereas RBI should be adopting a softer monetary stance”, added Banerjee.With WPI inflation rising to a seven-month high in September, and the retail price inflation breaking a two-month, RBI might not agree to Banerjee's demand. In an indication of easing current account deficit situation, 82% of the respondents felt that the value of rupee against US dollar was favorably affecting their exports. Contrary to the expectation that low rupee will lead to increase in their import bill, 53% of the business leaders felt that their imports will remain unchanged during the second half of the year. Going forward, majority (53%) of the respondents expected the rupee to prevail below Rs 62 a dollar by the end of the current fiscal.Exports grew double digits for the straight third month in September.Most of the respondents (37%) expected that their credit demand will remain unchanged during the second half of the current fiscal. Similarly, 50 of the business leaders did not see any perceptible change in their investment level during the second half of this year.In the survey, 50% of the respondents expected their sales and exports to grow moderately during the second half of this fiscal. However, profit margin was expected to decline by majority of the respondents due to pressure from hardening of input prices.http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/economy-moving-towards-stagflation-cii-survey-113101400908_1.html

Nobel for decoding asset price behaviour

SUDIPTA SARANGI

This year’s Nobel Prize for Economics has gone to three stalwarts, who have worked in the area of finance and enhanced our understanding of asset prices. Eugene F. Fama and Lars Peter Hansen, both professors at the University of Chicago, and Robert J. Shiller of Yale University have been pioneers in studying the behaviour of asset prices using large amounts of detailed financial data.

While nobody can perfectly predict stock price movements, the three economists, through their own independent research, have been instrumental in providing those crucial nuggets of information that have changed the way both academics and practitioners view financial markets.Their research tells that while we cannot say much about how stock prices will behave in the immediate future, we can actually say something about their behaviour in the long run by understanding the role of risk in this process.

Asset prices are important, as their movements affect aggregate consumption patterns and investment behaviour of firms. Also, based on their current and anticipated prices, we make decisions about how much to save and in what form — cash, gold, bank deposits, stocks or real estate. Episodes of speculative behaviour when assets are mispriced are a cause of worry. This is especially so in today’s interconnected global financial markets, since they eventually lead to crashes that can in turn trigger recessions. Hence, the study of asset prices is a very important and active field in economics.

STOCK PREDICTABILITY

Fama’s research shows us that past prices cannot be used to infer anything about asset returns in the short run. What he also found was that the stock markets react to new information extremely fast and incorporate them into the price of assets. As a result, arbitrage opportunities vanish very quickly. Also, stock prices are hard to predict after the initial reaction to any new piece of information.

Although it seems counter-intuitive, there is more predictability in stock prices when we consider a longer term. Safer assets will behave differently from riskier assets and this fact can be utilised to have better predictability in the long run. Shiller demonstrated precisely this in the early 1980s. Typically, we expect stock prices to reflect the present value of all future dividend streams. However, Shiller found that stock prices move much more than dividend streams.

Consequently, if the price of any stock is high relative to dividends this year, it influences investors’ perception of it. The stock price will, then, fall relative to the dividend value in the coming years. In other words, stock returns follow a predictable pattern!

This pattern was found to be true for bonds and other assets as well.

Lars Hansen developed a statistical method called the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) to test the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM). In any exercise requiring us to compute the present value of future cash flows, we use what is called a discount factor — how much a future rupee is worth today. Shiller had originally assumed that the discount rate is constant. But it is not clear why this should be so. Also, if the discount rate can vary, we need to explain why this may happen. The CCAPM is the most basic theoretical model connecting asset prices to savings and risky behaviour, which can systematically incorporate the role of different types of discount factors.

RATIONAL INVESTORS

Applying the GMM technique to historical stock data, Hansen demonstrated that the standard version of the CCAPM model is not valid. He, thus, showed that asset prices fluctuate too much relative to dividends even if we allow for discount factors to vary over time. All these, though, assume a rational investor, which may not be the best way to think about ourselves on any given day.

So another approach to explain long-run asset behaviour is to abandon the model of a fully rational investor and rely on “behavioural finance.”Animal Spirits, a book that Shiller co-authored with another Nobel Prize winner George Akerlof, is a nice introduction to this topic. A direct consequence of the research of the three economists is the emergence of the ‘indexed fund’ — a fund that mimics a benchmark market index like the Sensex or the Dow.

Since stock markets cannot be predicted in the short-run, and it is hard to pick stocks both in the long and short run, the best bet for a small investor probably is to put money in an indexed fund!

(The author is Gulf Coast Coca-Cola Distinguished Professor of Business Administration at Louisiana State University.)

(This article was published on October 14, 2013)

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/nobel-for-decoding-asset-price-behaviour/article5234149.ece?homepage=true

CAN NIFTY MARK ALL TIME HIGH...????

Nifty has managed to cross the 5930 level and the bottom support at 5820is well built. The Nifty may test 5930-50 level due to IIP numbers and the cyclone impact but the actual support at 5800 is crucial for now.

The INFY has generated some buying interest in the markets but the ODDs are still weighing high. The TCS and RIL results will be good but the TCS run-up before results may dampen the rise. The Infy also may not help much to Nifty at this juncture. The RIL negative news is not over. Unless the stock trades firmly above 879, there is always a threat built in to touch 809. The corporate results of BANKs will show the real direction to NIFTY as they are still attracting BEAR-BLOW. The INDUSIND Bank, ICICI, AXIS and HDFC duo will lay the road for next course of BANK Nifty journey.  The resistance at 10300 has just crossed to touch 10650 level, from a low of 8600 touched on 4^th SEP-13 but touched a high of 11200 on 19^th Sep-13. Similarly Nifty also made a decent journey from a low of 5320 to 6147 and now ruling at 6100 level.

The CAD issue is not an alarming issue and the FIIs inflow into Equity is rising since the 1^st week of Sep-13. The Rajan effect is still working as the Rupee depreciation is arrested and the recovery is notable. The Banks are allowed to rise dollars generated a fresh hope and simultaneously RBI selling dollars has given right signals to short sellers on RUPEE. The interantional meetings and invitations by the PM and FM may raise some hope of “Best opportunity to Invest in India”, that can translate into some buing interest. The IIP numbers are not encouraing but the Exports did. So there is some GOOD news and some BAD news built in.

The week a head is much dependant on the corporate results from TCS, INDUIND, HDFC Bank, AXIS Bank, HCL Tech, LT and RIL. The results may not kick start a fresh journey unless the US deadlock ease and give boost for some more upside at DOW. The temporary downside may prolong if NIFTY fails to register new HIGH in OCT-13 series. The IT and pharma may do well with their export driven orders. Now the RIL may add better results. So, there is a better chance of crossing the yearly high of 6230 despite of the above said issues.

INDIAN MARKETS SET FOR CORRECTION OR CRASH...????????

Dire outlook: BSE Sensex set to crash, BofA blames RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan  

Press Trust of India | Updated: Sep 24 2013, 17:57 IST

The Indian stock market (BSE Sensex) is likely to witness a correction after the RBI's new Governor Raghuram Rajan monetary policy review disappointed expectations, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofA-ML) presented its outlook in a report. The market will correct 6-8 per cent from current levels, according to the global financial services major. "The stock markets will be range-bound in the 18,500-20,500 range as weak economic and earnings growth caps the upside while hopes of rate cuts and policy measures protect the downside," BofA-ML said in the report dated September 23.

Stocks, which rallied sharply since Raghuram Rajan took over as Reserve Bank of India Governor on September 4, have fallen sharply since the central bank's policy review on September 20.

The benchmark 30-share S&P BSE Sensex, which lost 745.68 points in the previous two sessions, today fell by as much as 118.18 points, or 0.59 per cent, to 19,782.78 in the morning.The Sensex had surged 685 points to close at an almost three-year high of 20,646.64 on the eve of the RBI policy review. The index gained 9 per cent between Raghuram Rajan's takeover and the policy review.The report noted that "as markets are already close to our upper limit of the 'range' we believe the risk reward is not favourable."According to BofA-ML, one key risk for the markets is that foreign institutional investor (FIIs) holdings, at about 21 per cent, are close to all-time highs.

"India thus remains vulnerable to any global emerging market sell-off in the near term," BofA-ML said.Moreover, sentiment towards the Indian markets has turned negative and this could likely impact FIIs inflows if things worsen in the coming months.Other factors that may affect the market trend include earnings recovery, the RBI's main focus on inflation, forthcoming elections, negative sentiment about India and high valuations. On earnings, the report said given the delay in macro recovery and demand destruction, BofA-ML does not expect a material pick-up in corporate earnings.

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/dire-outlook-bse-sensex-set-to-crash-bofa-blames-rbi-governor-raghuram-rajan/1173568