Techs saved, rest shaved!

As we have discussed in the earlier posts the sell is stock specific but could pull the index down by 150 odd points at Nifty. The move has been anticipated and asked the co-passenger friends to half load their luggage of longs. The preparations to buy now have also been alerted, with caution they can build their positions. The day traders might have observered that the run in techs has been moved once the Infosys above 1935, wipro above 539-541 and Satyam above 473, were kept as bench marks. At the time of steep fall RCOM continued to trade above 516 held the neck out and said that it is strong enough to face the downpour of sell off. The regular viewers might have taken those levels while trading including Nifty a sell of point below 4283 and RIL below 1763. Now the old situation changed to a new one. We can discuss the new levels tomorrow for Monday trading.

For China ‘No’ but for USA “Yes”!

The market behavours are quite interesting; while China melts down happened every body was at wait and watch. Where as the USA markets made the other markets melt down across the globe. That is the big brother leadership even in distruction.
The possibility of Nifty opening below 4141 is for sure but the 4079 leve shall not be breached as posted earlier. The RIL shall not trade below 1645-1641 leve SBI not below 1326-1329 and RCOM shall now go below 500 mark. The Steel and metal with FMCG will melt. Good buying of HLL at 186-189 level and 149-146 for ITC.

So prepare for the up move!

The Indian markets are not fallen in that category to sell indiscriminately across the board. The mantra of creeping acquisition by the promoters is also a threat to bears. The market has not completed the correction but it has not completed the promised “due” to create all time high of Sensex. There was steady growth taken place in the NFO collection by MF’s and the industrial growth. So people are not in a hurry to book their profits made or not sure that they can by at lower levels. If we focus on Nifty it did not breached the 4140 support at June series though spot did. The trading sessions will be volatile to convince the bears to give a way their stake made. The markets will gain 500 points before it takes a Southward direction. The beauty is the consolidation at higher level and the decisive move can be seen after June-07 quarter results. So wait for a steep fall and for now trade cautiously. The levels we discuss tomorrow.

The war is on, No matter who wins!

As posted yesterday the bears ruthlessly slaughtered the weakest and did not even spared the stoner one. The war is on, no matter who wins finally but try to be in the winners club, always to keep a smiling face at the end of the day. The level of fall is deep and the USA is going to add fuel to the fire for tomorrow. The Asian markets calm but the European markets spreading meltdown material.. The Nifty has good support at 4141-43 and the best and the last hope for speedy recovery support available at 4079-75 range. Until the best support isn’t broken decisively the hopes of recovery to scale new highs are intact.
The viewers might have reduced their carrying long by 50% as requested 4 days back and might have gone short below 4283 level. The long-term buyers for medium term view can initiate longs after Nifty touched the 4075 level. This time the best buys could be generated from pharma and tech stocks. The recovery of any kind be used to off load another 50% tomorrow itself..

The Nifty at cross roads!

The China volatility is about to spread to India. The slaughtering of the stocks in China was a matter of booking profits made in months. Their stocks raised more than100% in 4 months where as in India it was not so. As a matter of fact, for 90 points rise at Nifty from a high of 4235 on 17th to 4325 on 1st June, it took 12 trading sessions.
The markets showed their resilience as the China recovered from a 6% low to a to 2% high, gave much needed relief for the markets. The readers might have observed that the Nifty could not cross 4298 nor it could close above 4286, a crucial level.
The RIL has become the weakest and the SBI has become the strongest at this point in time. The ICICI is trading above 928-930 level is good to banking stocks. Nifty is strong so long SBI trades above 13003-1306. But the advancing breadth has limited and trading above their immediate support levels.
The market is considered positive so long the heavy weights trade above these levels-SAIL should trade above 141, RIL above 1763, ONGC above 908, TataSteel above 641, Bharti above 929, RCOM above 515, Infosys above 1935, TCS above 1221, and Wipro above 541.The Nifty shall not trade below 4281, then bears will run their day.

Sensex- just short, now far away?

The Indian markets are trying their best to cross the all time high at Sensex but the global, especially the adjacent China melt down brought down by 75points. The banks, especially SBI and ICICI are trading above their support levels. As posted in the morning, the RIL lost its bottom but closed at 1741-43 the support level and RCOM has failed to cross 516 but closed above 508 are the both positive points. But the global cues could hamper the Sensex growth prospects. The techs mainly Infosys above 1935, TCS above 1229-32 and Wipro above 542 are strong but no support was available to them to trade above those support levels. We have to see the reaction from USA markets.

The ample money with MFs!, but the strength?

The MFs have received highest ever fund in flow for investments in equities and the total money under Assets Under Management (AUM) increased from Rs 3, 50,279 to Rs 4, 07,754. The investors confidence has increased in MFs as they have better bargaining power in case of a severe volatility blow. The short-term/ immediate indicators are bullish on all fronts. The real strength of Indian market can be tested, whether the cracks in global indices can crumble our markets or not?- is the foremost challenge to our valuations.

Technically speaking the Nifty is strong even it falls to a level of 4141-4143. But the worrying factor at this point in time is the capacity to bounce back across the board. The mid cap story is very much specified to 75-100 stocks and the churning is also wild. A close study can reveal a fact that when there was some activity in a particular stock with 6 to10% + up move, has become so short lived that it could not advance at least on the next day, is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.
So, go long for a day or two but don’t try to average in case of a loss. The back drop of ADR’s was green and the Asia is biased on bulls side except China. It is likely that the Nifty could advance further with the support of Infosys and techs but the melt down in China by 4% is not a small issue. The RIL is trading at the verge of it’s support for day traders. Nifty shall not trade below 4293 level then it will touch 4229-4232 level.

For today’s stock specific calls visit www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com

Will the Sensex create history?

The markets likely to touch the all time high of Sensex on Monday which is at 14724 can be a matter of history. It seems that the news of ‘billing rates hike’ of Infosys can add numbers to the Sensex. The world over indices is scaling new highs but here we are struggling to find buyers. There were signs of liquidity drying up in the small stocks and the mid cap story is around a few stocks and the rest are moving Southwards. On other side of the upward movement, limited to a few stocks especially the Reliance family stocks are saving the sentiment but the bumpy roads to other stocks can be seen in their movement.

The economy likely to see a considerable low growth rate in the next two quarters as the fall in the rate of growth of auto mobiles can be a first sign in that direction. The banks fund raising rates are going up day by day and the competition are building up to garner the cash rich. The banks will be forced to focus on farm lending as the agriculture growth is negative and the elections are around the corner. The rupee appreciation already hurting the leather & garment exporters, software services and other agri-exporters working on thin margins.

The effort is not to picture a negative view but to through some light on the other side, kept in darkness while beating the growth rate drums by the govt. and the analysts. After few quarters, the story of “growth rate” can become a useful paper work for the researchers but not for the common person who is struggling to survive to get two meals a day.

Not inflation, now trade deficit?

The markets will correct on the concerns of the burgeoning trade deficit month after month. The exports are decreasing and the imports are increasing, the situation will lead to a condition where it becomes every body’s concern. The beauty of the Govt.s job is to make some damage to a smooth going economy in the pretext of managing a situation under political compulsions and correcting with other concerns. The recent example is the Sugar export ban, now the govt. offering the incentives as hospital charges to regain the health of the industry. The next is the cement issues and bashing the banking sector making the rupee appreciation. Now the incentives are around for the textile and leather exporters. There was a clear lack of coordination among the different ministries and foul playing with the economy with their short sighted independent approach.

The strength by techs!

The techs have provided the necessary support to float the Nifty above the support level in spite of the weakness in the heavy weights. Banks are showing their resilience to a downward move. The strength of Infosys made the Sensex float in green through out the day. The journey of mid-caps especially the reality sector worth mentioning. The narrow band with of Nifty movement can be a positive sign so long it trades above 4281-83 level. Now the Nifty upward movement by heavy weights can take considerable time, until the technical correction is over.

Asia positive, ADRs negative

The Nifty can open positive as the cues are positive but difficult to maintain at the 4286 level. So long it trades below 4281, it favors bears. The market may take breathe for a while to take a directional call as of now be with the fluctuating trend on either side. The RIL shall trade above 1748-1751, ONGC above 916-918 and SBI above 1341 to continue the up move. The ICICI started the south move and should not trade above 928.

So long …so good

The Nifty could stage new highs time and again but the Sensex could not able to do so because of the tech weight age, especially due to Infosys.
The Nifty is good so long as it trades above the immediate support at 4241 but the fall can be seen only when Sensex makes the history.

The Nifty May series has done good job with out major damage to the investors. As the new series begin tomorrow, lots of activities in terms of IPOs & NFOs fund rising and new associations at in the skies. The Govt. will focus on agriculture and retaining power tactics will impress the voters. So try to focus those industries that have direct relation with the common man. After a reasonable correction pick up in fertilizers, tractors and FMCGs but not banks. The true colors of the rising interests can be seen in stains in their balance sheets of June and the drain of profits in Sep-07. So try to protect from the hard ships but the FMCGs and hotels will do well.

I am thankful to those who share the usefulness & benefits of the blog and request the viewers to find time to post their comments.

No bottoms break out!

The tremors from China did not affect the Indian markets though there was selling pressure but the important bottom supports were not breached as posted, either for Nifty or the top 4 heavy weights like RIL, Bharti, SBI and ONGC but the catastrophic cycle effect can be felt tomorrow though F&O closing day.
The Nifty can see down side in June series due to global and local factors. As of now there was no visible cracks seen to the fortress but suggestions from one week are even now valid as “no longs for long”.

The red is a danger sign!

The Asian markets are in red and our markets likely to open below 4261 level and continue to trade below 4173 level and even can touch 4229 level breaking the support at 4241 level. The weakness as usual in techs can infuse in banks.

The RIL likely to face pressure and the SBI in news with its subsidiaries, Bharti may face selling pressure. Tata steel and auro pharma in positive news. Be cautious and good luck.

The 'all time high close' day

The investors are behaving like day traders, so is our markets behaviour. The markets are facing selling pressure even for one percent rise. The long term fundamentals could be strong but technically the Nifty finding difficulty to advance further with strength. As posted, though the Nifty could close above 4293 and created a new high but failed to move up on broad based sectoral gains on several fronts.

Most of the fund managers tired to extend their support to heavy weights as many companies published their results and the shopping spree of Indian industry seems to be over except for selling the promoters stake to make good money while the Sensex shines. The banking sector is the dire need of money to meet the BASEL-II statutory norms. So pushing the stocks could fetch few more rupees with out much pain.

The May series could see much more choppy days ahead of the expiry. The market is ripe for diluting the holdings by 50% and re-enter when the Nifty touches 3920-3880 regions. The wait and watch is the best principle for the small investor whose averaging power is much less. No leverage be encouraged in the market at this point in time. No long term longs, the investors should enjoy the up move like a trader.

The spread of green…

The world markets are in green and could spread it’s color to India. The carry forward effect can be seen in the markets world over. The Nifty should open above 4251 and shall not break 4106 at the lower level to test new high once again. As the earlier posts suggests a view that no longs for longer periods until Nifty builds its bottom strong. The Nifty should trade above 4200 up to Thursday so that the shorts can be absorbed comfortably. The RIL and ONGC could add strength if they trade above 1721 and 928. To day techs could advance in the morning and profit booking cannot be ruled at the end of the day.

Strength beyond expectation…

The Nifty could show its strength beyond many analysts expectation. The world markets were weak but India became an exception. The RIL though did not breach the bottom support as well failed to trade above 1721-23. In the earlier posts expressed a view that techs will bounce from lows, which happened on Friday with small support from Autos.

However the Nifty bounced back is a positive indication of the Bulls strength, but the negative developments are cropping in support of bears. The May series should end above 4200 and the heavy weights should trade above their short term support levels-RIL above1723, ONGS above 928, ICICI above 921and SBI above 1321.

Bears laugh continuous…

The world markets are in red so we slide towards bottom breaking. The markets are clearly taking time to change the direction for reverse gear. So investors shall not carry the delivery positions for long periods. The fund managers are spending sleepless nights to maintain their NAV positive. The markets consolidate in trading range for long period before it takes a jump. Today Nifty shall not break 4131 support and reliance shall not break 1685 support.

THE HIHG TOUCHED TO FALL….

The Nifty touched a high of 4291 and fell to 4231 leading a negative journey aided by RIL, SBI, RCOM Bharti, Tata Motors and ONGC. Now the real challenge is Nifty to close above 4209-08 up to May series. As the Asian markets are weak take the opportunity to sell now and buy later. The RIL shall trade above 1721-23 to see the bull sentiment intact. “We want money” is the slogan of the Indian industries, so the flooding of new issues and NFOs. They will suck the money, the madness will surface after 6 months in the banks financial results. Then the real cry for money by the investors is heard on the streets. Be cautious with bank associations at the street. Good luck.

Bears are grinding their axes!

The Nifty high is over for news, now all are looking at Sensex. In the mean time Bears are grinding their axes to take their revenge. So be prepared to face by buying now or keep distance and wait for the better opportunity to grab the opportunity to buy the blue chips at much lower prices. The above situation is very much relevant to the fresh investors took positions in media and even banks.
The Nifty failed to cross the higher side but made some genuine effort to stay above 4271. Now the tech laggards shall take the lead, get support from auto sector so as to increase the breadth of the participation in the bull move. The signs of cracks can be seen in the cements and real estates, already waning their early move color. Be cautious, good luck.