The spread of Green!

The world markets spreads the green and adds market cap. The Nifty likely to open with a min.of 20points gap and continue to gain, a caution at the last hour may call for a selling pressure as we are coming from negative to positive. The Nifty fails to trade comfortable above 4193, can confirm the down move.
The RIL may tarde above 1706 and may touch 1721-23, the RCOM may find shorts covered above 501-03 and touch 513-15 level. The autos, cements and FMCG may find bottom fishing and the techs likely to advance. The ICICI good above 911 and Bharti above 821. The smaller banks participate in the move, IDFC and IDBI may move up.

Comfortable consolidation for time being!

The markets made a comfortable consolidation for the time being as the Nifty
made decent up move with most of the stocks got good support at the bottom. The successful completion of the DLF issue and made a warm welcome to the ICICI.
Tomorrow it is likely that further advancing in the Nifty, could trade above 4193 in the opening and surpass the resistance of 4221. The good beginning is the up move from cements and pharma, both are under-performers for quite some time made decent up move in the days of distress. The mid-cap do well in future once the closure of ICICI issue.
To make every thing rosy, RIL shall trade above 1681-83, ONGC above 951-53, Infy above 1973-76, bharti above 906-05 and SBI above 1305-03.

Make money from the markets?

Simply concentrate to make money from the markets no matter whether it is a short call or long call. A million dollar question- making a right call but the fact is as “The beauty of the markets is it offers money to every person who sails along the direction of move either side but one has to make a right call”. The motors are feeling the heat of interest rates and the banks fund rising measures dilute the earnings. But the power, Pharma and techs will do well.

The Nifty will has to trade above 4121 and cross 4149-51 level will happen with out much trouble. The ADRs good, buying will be good – Infy good above 1976 to a target of 2020, stop loss @ 1961, RIL good above 1683, RCOM above 491 tata steel above 596-98, Sail good above 129. IDFC and Idea will add good gains. The Media stocks will do well.

Red across the globe, China an exception!

Red all over, the ADRs in red except ICICI. The Nifty likely to open below 4141 level and may test 4087 level. The stocks, except RIL, have become weak and RIL may not lead the rally as the skepticism spread over the streets. The frontline stocks may face sell off if Nifty fail to bounce back above 4111-4115 level after touching 4089-87. The mid-caps are sliding steep even there was some relief rally came late in the evening.
The RIL- 1693-91 support, resistance at 1713-15, RCOM weak below 501-503 and Bharti weak below 821. Tata steel has support at 589-91. Zeel good for delivery at 271.

Will the up move continue..?.

As posted, the Nifty made no big gains nor lost much but added some hopes of strength with the big move from RIL. In the earlier posts it was mentioned that the support will come once SBI touches 1303-05 level and Nifty at 4087 level. The traders might have observered that the SBI touched 1305 which is a strong support and June series touched 4087 and then bounced back to 4155 level. The Tata steel and RIL have given decent returns to those on long and RCOM failed to trade above 506 touched 486 and Hindalco gave money to bears.
The up move is valid only when Nifty trades above 4186-89 level and the heavy weights should trade above the support levels. I request the viewers to consider the views for the day and some levels with special mention to be considered for 3-4 weeks. Now the markets are at the verge of the bull support. Unless a big move with 75-80 points single day rally in Nifty is happened with in 5-7 trading sessions it is likely that the markets fall by its own weight to 3680 level. I request
the readers to post thier comments and trading experinces.

Asian markets negative bias, So we..?

The markets may take some time to change the on going correction. The bulls lost the opportunity to take the markets up in the yesterday trades. There is no big news emerged for today. So the stocks may trade in the trading range with positive bias, support from techs and energy sectors.
The Nifty shall not trade below 4123-4120 level to bid for a come back by crossing the 4166 and should trade above 4183 level to make the bears for a run. So long Nifty trades below 4156-59 level the bears build pressure.
RIL shall not trade below 1651 and should cross 1686; RCOM become weak if doesn’t cross 515 and trade below 506. Tata steel may bounce to 593-96 level; Zeel a good buy at 275-271 with a stop loss at 263-261. A correction can be expected in Hindalco to a level 156-155 level.

Late wipe out in the gains made!

The up move has become short lived which is a caution to bulls. The Nifty could easily cross 4200 but bears took the opportunity to beat the bulls. The real secret lies a head as “who is trapping whom”.

The technical outlook is positive on account of global up run in the stocks. The Indian markets corrected today could be stated as bottom building so long as the RIL trades above 1641-38, ONGC trade above 831-29, RCOM trade above 493-495 and SBI trade above 1309. The weak steels turn to post gains when Tata steel trade above 593-596. The BPO story is turning to a new script as KPO and Pharma will do their research as CRAMS. What ever we do with our knowledge will pour ‘Dollars’. So no panic alarms but certainly some disappointments.

Up, up move in SENSEX!, run up in stocks!

The up move can be seen every where. It seems that the Nifty could easily cross 4200 and even crossing 4211-4221 could become no surprise as things stand out.

The technicals become positive if things move as stated above. The RIL shall trade above 1681-83, ONGC shall trade above 891-93.RCOM likely to cross the all time high. SBI likely to trade above 1389. The weak steels may post decent gains today. The techs bottom support are intact, so their run can spread to even small cap techs. The laggards are FMCG and autos.
The DLF and ICICI are not absorbing the money, instead bringing FII money and a big broadcast for Indian stock markets?.

Up, up move in SENSEX!, run up in stocks!

The up move can be seen every where. It seems that the Nifty could easily cross 4200 and even crossing 4211-4221 could become no surprise as things stand out.

The technicals become positive if things move as stated above. The RIL shall trade above 1681-83, ONGC shall trade above 891-93.RCOM likely to cross the all time high. SBI likely to trade above 1389. The weak steels may post decent gains today. The techs bottom support are intact, so their run can spread to even small cap techs. The laggards are FMCG and autos.
The DLF and ICICI are not absorbing the money, instead bringing FII money and a big broadcast for Indian stock markets?.

Up, up move in SENSEX!, run up in stocks!

The up move can be seen every where. It seems that the Nifty could easily cross 4200 and even crossing 4211-4221 could become no surprise as things stand out.

The technicals become positive if things move as stated above. The RIL shall trade above 1671-73, ONGC shall trade above 891-93.RCOM likely to cross the all time high. SBI likely to trade above 1389. The weak steels may post decent gains today. The techs bottom support are intact, so their run can spread to even small cap techs. The laggards are FMCG and autos.
The DLF and ICICI are not absorbing the money, instead bringing FII money and a big broadcast for Indian stock markets?.

Will the Nifty open above 4163 level?.

The clues from USA are more encouraging than expected in this short span. The Nasdaq and Dow recorded positive gains after a steep fall. So it is likely that Nifty on Monday could open with a positive gap and should close above 4191-93 which will wipe out the negative environment that created over the last 5 trading sessions. This time Sensex will have smooth run as the run up from techs, especially from Infosys. The Asian markets may also follow the big brother and the emerging markets out perform. In case the low of Nifty could not register above 4141, then there is some bear grip in the markets.

It seems the euphoria over ‘Nuclear’ (as of now No-clear) power generation has to wait for more than a year as things emerged now. So is the bullishness in BHEL, ABB, NTPC, REL, Tata Power, L&T and Punj Lloyd. Technically negative points worrying at this point were the weakness in Bharti, ICICI and Sail are trading far below their support levels along with cement and the auto sectors as a whole. The investors can start accumulating in Pharma and FMCG for a 50% rise with a time frame up to Sep-Oct-07. The stock specific levels on Monday.

Techs saved, rest shaved!

As we have discussed in the earlier posts the sell is stock specific but could pull the index down by 150 odd points at Nifty. The move has been anticipated and asked the co-passenger friends to half load their luggage of longs. The preparations to buy now have also been alerted, with caution they can build their positions. The day traders might have observered that the run in techs has been moved once the Infosys above 1935, wipro above 539-541 and Satyam above 473, were kept as bench marks. At the time of steep fall RCOM continued to trade above 516 held the neck out and said that it is strong enough to face the downpour of sell off. The regular viewers might have taken those levels while trading including Nifty a sell of point below 4283 and RIL below 1763. Now the old situation changed to a new one. We can discuss the new levels tomorrow for Monday trading.

For China ‘No’ but for USA “Yes”!

The market behavours are quite interesting; while China melts down happened every body was at wait and watch. Where as the USA markets made the other markets melt down across the globe. That is the big brother leadership even in distruction.
The possibility of Nifty opening below 4141 is for sure but the 4079 leve shall not be breached as posted earlier. The RIL shall not trade below 1645-1641 leve SBI not below 1326-1329 and RCOM shall now go below 500 mark. The Steel and metal with FMCG will melt. Good buying of HLL at 186-189 level and 149-146 for ITC.

So prepare for the up move!

The Indian markets are not fallen in that category to sell indiscriminately across the board. The mantra of creeping acquisition by the promoters is also a threat to bears. The market has not completed the correction but it has not completed the promised “due” to create all time high of Sensex. There was steady growth taken place in the NFO collection by MF’s and the industrial growth. So people are not in a hurry to book their profits made or not sure that they can by at lower levels. If we focus on Nifty it did not breached the 4140 support at June series though spot did. The trading sessions will be volatile to convince the bears to give a way their stake made. The markets will gain 500 points before it takes a Southward direction. The beauty is the consolidation at higher level and the decisive move can be seen after June-07 quarter results. So wait for a steep fall and for now trade cautiously. The levels we discuss tomorrow.

The war is on, No matter who wins!

As posted yesterday the bears ruthlessly slaughtered the weakest and did not even spared the stoner one. The war is on, no matter who wins finally but try to be in the winners club, always to keep a smiling face at the end of the day. The level of fall is deep and the USA is going to add fuel to the fire for tomorrow. The Asian markets calm but the European markets spreading meltdown material.. The Nifty has good support at 4141-43 and the best and the last hope for speedy recovery support available at 4079-75 range. Until the best support isn’t broken decisively the hopes of recovery to scale new highs are intact.
The viewers might have reduced their carrying long by 50% as requested 4 days back and might have gone short below 4283 level. The long-term buyers for medium term view can initiate longs after Nifty touched the 4075 level. This time the best buys could be generated from pharma and tech stocks. The recovery of any kind be used to off load another 50% tomorrow itself..

The Nifty at cross roads!

The China volatility is about to spread to India. The slaughtering of the stocks in China was a matter of booking profits made in months. Their stocks raised more than100% in 4 months where as in India it was not so. As a matter of fact, for 90 points rise at Nifty from a high of 4235 on 17th to 4325 on 1st June, it took 12 trading sessions.
The markets showed their resilience as the China recovered from a 6% low to a to 2% high, gave much needed relief for the markets. The readers might have observed that the Nifty could not cross 4298 nor it could close above 4286, a crucial level.
The RIL has become the weakest and the SBI has become the strongest at this point in time. The ICICI is trading above 928-930 level is good to banking stocks. Nifty is strong so long SBI trades above 13003-1306. But the advancing breadth has limited and trading above their immediate support levels.
The market is considered positive so long the heavy weights trade above these levels-SAIL should trade above 141, RIL above 1763, ONGC above 908, TataSteel above 641, Bharti above 929, RCOM above 515, Infosys above 1935, TCS above 1221, and Wipro above 541.The Nifty shall not trade below 4281, then bears will run their day.

Sensex- just short, now far away?

The Indian markets are trying their best to cross the all time high at Sensex but the global, especially the adjacent China melt down brought down by 75points. The banks, especially SBI and ICICI are trading above their support levels. As posted in the morning, the RIL lost its bottom but closed at 1741-43 the support level and RCOM has failed to cross 516 but closed above 508 are the both positive points. But the global cues could hamper the Sensex growth prospects. The techs mainly Infosys above 1935, TCS above 1229-32 and Wipro above 542 are strong but no support was available to them to trade above those support levels. We have to see the reaction from USA markets.

The ample money with MFs!, but the strength?

The MFs have received highest ever fund in flow for investments in equities and the total money under Assets Under Management (AUM) increased from Rs 3, 50,279 to Rs 4, 07,754. The investors confidence has increased in MFs as they have better bargaining power in case of a severe volatility blow. The short-term/ immediate indicators are bullish on all fronts. The real strength of Indian market can be tested, whether the cracks in global indices can crumble our markets or not?- is the foremost challenge to our valuations.

Technically speaking the Nifty is strong even it falls to a level of 4141-4143. But the worrying factor at this point in time is the capacity to bounce back across the board. The mid cap story is very much specified to 75-100 stocks and the churning is also wild. A close study can reveal a fact that when there was some activity in a particular stock with 6 to10% + up move, has become so short lived that it could not advance at least on the next day, is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.
So, go long for a day or two but don’t try to average in case of a loss. The back drop of ADR’s was green and the Asia is biased on bulls side except China. It is likely that the Nifty could advance further with the support of Infosys and techs but the melt down in China by 4% is not a small issue. The RIL is trading at the verge of it’s support for day traders. Nifty shall not trade below 4293 level then it will touch 4229-4232 level.

For today’s stock specific calls visit www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com

Will the Sensex create history?

The markets likely to touch the all time high of Sensex on Monday which is at 14724 can be a matter of history. It seems that the news of ‘billing rates hike’ of Infosys can add numbers to the Sensex. The world over indices is scaling new highs but here we are struggling to find buyers. There were signs of liquidity drying up in the small stocks and the mid cap story is around a few stocks and the rest are moving Southwards. On other side of the upward movement, limited to a few stocks especially the Reliance family stocks are saving the sentiment but the bumpy roads to other stocks can be seen in their movement.

The economy likely to see a considerable low growth rate in the next two quarters as the fall in the rate of growth of auto mobiles can be a first sign in that direction. The banks fund raising rates are going up day by day and the competition are building up to garner the cash rich. The banks will be forced to focus on farm lending as the agriculture growth is negative and the elections are around the corner. The rupee appreciation already hurting the leather & garment exporters, software services and other agri-exporters working on thin margins.

The effort is not to picture a negative view but to through some light on the other side, kept in darkness while beating the growth rate drums by the govt. and the analysts. After few quarters, the story of “growth rate” can become a useful paper work for the researchers but not for the common person who is struggling to survive to get two meals a day.

Not inflation, now trade deficit?

The markets will correct on the concerns of the burgeoning trade deficit month after month. The exports are decreasing and the imports are increasing, the situation will lead to a condition where it becomes every body’s concern. The beauty of the Govt.s job is to make some damage to a smooth going economy in the pretext of managing a situation under political compulsions and correcting with other concerns. The recent example is the Sugar export ban, now the govt. offering the incentives as hospital charges to regain the health of the industry. The next is the cement issues and bashing the banking sector making the rupee appreciation. Now the incentives are around for the textile and leather exporters. There was a clear lack of coordination among the different ministries and foul playing with the economy with their short sighted independent approach.