The steady and solid up move to create history!

The bulls in market showed their strength to scale the indices to new highs. In my earlier posts stated that the markets would fall only when the Sensex touches new high. The Sensex very likely to touch the new high above 14700 and the up move may continue, as the environment for bulls is fairly favourable. The techs may move in positive direction, as the time is ripe.

Follow up: As posted today, the Hindalco lost nearly 5%, but Tata steel could not hold above 598 at any point of time. The TCS has made good move above 1141 and never touched 1129, The RIL could not trade above 1711-12 or could trade below 1685. The Banking lot especially by SBI, made a decent move above 1503 and traded above 1471 a pre-condition for a big up move, as posted. The Idea suggested for del. above 118 gave good gains and the IDFC and IDBI suggested for delivery can now reduce thier postions by half.

Rest is calm, China violent red?

The Indian stock markets likely to go for a breakout incase of positive results from techs in this series. As of now no major changes in the levels as they are in rage bound maintaining the old ones.
Today stocks in news are Tata steel, good above 598 stop loss 591. SBI has negative and positive news – incase it trades below 1459 go short or the scrip shall trade above 1471 to test new high at 1491 even 1500. TCS is in shopping two more companies, good above 1141 stop loss @1129.
The Hindalco likely to correct and test 156-155 level if it trades below 172-171. The Relcap also correct and touch 990-993 level.

Personally I prefer Tatasteel & Hindalco and may trade in RCOM & Satyam as there was no violation of levels.

June closed with out gains?.

The series started with 4295 and ended with 4282. So no Puts and no Calls made big money. The stocks rocked are ABB, SUZLON, L&T and the today’s surprise win from cement sector stocks.

The techs are facing the heat of rupee rise may enjoy the new contracts at higher price and volume increase can be seen as the industry is consolidating with decent top line growth. A waiting period of one year at this level is no wrong as the run up was incredible.
The auto are going to change the transport system in India as huge potential is going to be unleashed in a year or two. The CNG will change the lifestyles and the retail shops provide big opportunity across the nation.
The Nifty did not breach the low or crossed the high as mentioned, RIL got support at 1685-86 level and resistance at 1712-11 level. SBI did now trade below 1441-43 level advanced. The Bharati is consolidating between 821-839 levels.
Follow up: Satyam and Wipro gave decent gains. The banking not bearish as thought. due to SBI news. HDFC made decent move up. The biggest failure – failed to anticipate the cement move.

Rest is green, we close June!

The US bounced to positive and Asia trading green. The Patni ADR- 3%up.
The local markets likely to open positive with a gap of 20 points at Nifty above 4273 level. The RIL has to join the bulls party and shall trade above 1711-13 level and ONGC above 929-31 level to the markets trade above 4295-98 level, which is a constraint to cross in short-term. The Sensex likely to cross the all time high in July series, a long waited event. The steels likely to correct further and the GMR may take a breath for a while. The banks are fund thirsty and advancing up to garner much.
The RCOM strong above 515, weak below 508-06, Bharti good above 839-41 level and may drift lower below 831. The Tata steel may bounce back and close above 600 level and the techs may continue the up move. Satyam good above 469 stop loss 463, TCS good above 1141 stop loss 1129, Infty good above 1935 stop loss 1920 and Wipro is good for delivery if it trades above 515 and low above 509.
Top news- Govt sops to Sugar sector, Citi for Share khan- IDFC has stake, HDFC got 450 crs from stake sale in the BPO deal, RIL gas sale and row on price, Kesoram to Aditya group, Steel prices may drop in future by Rs 500-1000/-.

For today, personally consider Satyam and Wipro for long and short an banks.

A day to pass to invite the true color?

The stocks are reflecting a different color on sceeen from their original moves, trying to exhibit a concealed version for a cause -”the June F&O closing”.
The Nifty is managing to stay above 4251 level is a good sign if it continue to carry a head in future as the consolidation above 4141 level and the stocks traded at their higher prices. So far so good, but the apprehension about the advancement of Nifty is increasing in the minds of the fund managers is not a good sign. Nifty is trying to hold on the top, up movement has been questioned time and again.The up move has been intact so long Nifty trades above 4139-41 levels and RIL trades above 1621, ONGC above 901-03, Bharti above 821, RCOM above 501-03 levels. Incase Nifty slides, no panic situation will emerge until it trades above 4079-81 level and RIL trades above 1580 level. So fall is a good sign for fresh people to enter and hold “ change of hands”.

US down, Asia red, almost!

We are getting the bull support to the Nifty as the expiry is near to close. The shorts built at the beginning of the series also propping to stay positive. This is not a healthy sign to the bull market as it passes through invite vengeance, which clearly wipes out the retail small investor, the real feedstock to the stock market industry.

The Nifty up by 26 pts. and Sensex up by 13 points, a rare case as RIL down and ONGC up changed the scenario. The Nifty is close above its support level of 4271-73, above strong, below 42461 can see a serious damage. The stocks are in bear pressure except Bharti, RCOM and ONGC. The rest are just close above or just below the support levels. No major change in their levels.
Personally I am bearish on Banking. Strong on Telecom. Steels both ways.

Yes, bulls have something to say?.

The markets made the required gains of Nifty, with positive moves of Suzlon, ONGC and with the support of Bharti. The firm pressure from bears has been successfully absorbed in RIL, SBI and ICICI bank made the Nifty to float in positive territory. As posted, the Idea gave good gains to those who bought above 118. The capital goods stocks are very rosy in the market. The Nifty did not breach the 4251-53 levels at any point but advanced slowly, pretending as if it will fall, which was not happened. The market never falls when every body expects, and it will make a surprise when all are comfortable. It always surprises everybody as accident- even to seasoned- “BULLS & BEARS”.

The rest is mixed, do we correct..?

The US negative, Asia mixed with small corrections. The ADRs are negative. The Nifty may face the post results heat of ONGC. In case ONGC fails to trade above 921 and low below 909 bears take advantage. The RIL levels did not changed, any move below 1703-01 is for bears and above 1716-18 is for bulls. The RCOM in bulls favour so long it trades above 506-08 and the Tata steel may move above 609-11, if failed and trades below 598 is a clear sign of bear grip that can take back to 540 level before it could resume a fresh up move. The SAIL is good for long term only when it make a low of 112-109 levels. The positive side scrips are limited to banks and media.
The Nifty may face resistance at higher level at 4269-71 and support at 4239-41 levels and the weight is on lower side breach unless a big move happened in HLL, ITC and Suzlon make as day savers from bears. ITC is good above 152-153 and HLL above 190-191, 1% stop-loss is enough.
In case of bears take control of the day, the losers can be from Relcap, SBI ICICI and M&M. The chances of up move are more in Satyam, Wipro and STER.

Lack of conviction either side!

Neither the bulls nor the bears prepared to take a deep cut in opponent’s pockets. The RIL daylong traded below 1711 but did not trade below 1701, except for a dip to register low, Bharti traded above 821 and even touched 836, the SBI though traded below 1441 for a while but bounced back to trade above that level. The techs once again did the damage to the index as most of the heavy weights are trading below their support levels, exception is Satyam which has still potential to cross 481-483 level. The readers might have observed that the RCOM gave decent gains once it traded above 516 level, and the ICICI also traded above 947-49 level. The NTPC and STER failed to register good gains but the steam to move up is being built up.
The F&O expiry will bring lots of volatility in the coming two days and the Nifty may close below 4160 level unless it trades tomorrow above 4273 level.

Lack of conviction either side!

Neither the bulls nor the bears prepared to take a deep cut in opponent’s pockets. The RIL daylong traded below 1711 but did not trade below 1701, except for a dip to register low, Bharti traded above 821 and even touched 836, the SBI though traded below 1441 for a while but bounced back to trade above that level. The techs once again did the damage to the index as most of the heavy weights are trading below their support levels, exception is Satyam which has still potential to cross 481-483 level. The readers might have observed that the RCOM gave decent gains once it traded above 516 level, and the ICICI also traded above 947-49 level. The NTPC and STER failed to register good gains but the steam to move up is being built up.
The F&O expiry will bring lots of volatility in the coming two days and the Nifty may close below 4160 level unless it trades tomorrow above 4273 level.

Nifty can face resistance?

The US cues were negative and the Asian markets are trading in negative bias and our ADRs also in red. We came from a depressed sentiment to positive but the June series came to an end in this weak, so we are likely to see bulls unwinding and the bears exert pressure.

In case the Nifty fails to trade above 4259-61 levels in the first half an our and RIL fail to trade above 1709-11, it is likely that the markets find comfort at 4214 level to close. The positive counters like SBI, ICICI and Bharti shall not trade above 1441, 947-49, and 821 levels respectively to see a 40 points drop in Nifty. The rest of the counters are at their old support and resistance levels.

A pull back can be seen in STER above 581, TCS above 1147 and NTPC above 153. The Idea crossed the resistance 118 on Friday can be observed continue to good for del. above 118

The DLF & ICICI success-the show of strength!

The skeptical persons said that the markets are not in a position to accept the two big issues (DLF & ICICI) at this point in time in June-07. But beyond anybody’s expectation the issues were flooded with money offerings from India and abroad is a clear sign of bullish under tone in the India’s growth story and the down turns are all consolidation attempts to make a big move in future. But the traders and Investors as cautioned earlier also should not sell growth of the enterprise but the price at a given price. It is as simple as that the scrip should be sold and re-enter at a lower price with out leaving it once for all.
The Nifty may not create a new high in this June series as the RIL issue will drag it further and the techs are any way favouring the bears. As posted earlier, the Nifty is strong so long it trades above 4079-81 levels. So the strategy is to go long with the stocks in upward momentum. As the prices are almost at their peaks need some time to consolidate and positive triggers to make a big up ward move.

The markets may take a down turn?

The issue of RIL gas and the post US and present Asian downturn may engulf the Indian markets and likely to correct the Nifty to a level of 4229-31 as closing. In case RIL trades below 1738, the above condition is double sure. The late bounce back in the Techs can continue and the majors will add 1%+ gains. The SBI may correct 1-2 % and the rest of the banking sectors.
The Nifty shall not cross 4281-83 levels and shall trade below 4251 in the first half an hour will give strength to bears. The Bharti struggling to trade above 826 is a negative sign. RCOM shall not trade above 521level and the low shall be below 515 to short sell. The Tata steel shall not cross 615-16 to see it at 591-89 levels.

The US worries likely to spread?

The world pays much attention to US and their worries are likely to affect the markets across the globe as series concerns are brewing.The Nifty shall trade above 4263 in the opening and shall try to cross 4281 in the first one-hour. The low shall not breach 4235-33 to continue the bull movement otherwise it is likely that the Nifty may touch 4189-91 levels. So try to focus on the weak counters like RCOM if it does not pierce 515 on higher side and trades below 506. The RIL trades below 1729, ONGC below 915 and the banks likely to correct, focus on ICICI and Relcap. Incase of up move focus on Idea gains momentum, good for del. above 118

The story in tact!

The viewers might have observed that the fall on Monday is to trap the bears on Tuesday and on wednesday, with a gain of nearly 340 points in Sensex and nearly 102+ points in Nifty has made the scenario to pessimism to neutral .In the earlier posting stated that a 70 point rally in Nifty is mush need has been fulfilled yesterday and the cushion of 35 points is available to bulls.
The situation at Nifty is comfortable to bull but not a warning call to the bears. The real threat comes once Nifty trades above 4263 and cross 4281 levels and as usual RIL shall trade above 1761-63 levels. There is neither a big threat to the bears nor a full advantage to the bulls. The perpetual “net-coonectivity” problems forcing me to stay away to provide the updates in the evening by 6 pm and morning by 9 am. Please try to read the old posts and write your comments, views for other views to learn more as an interactive learning by sharing.

Can we neck out?

The global cues are flat, no big favour to either. So our markets exit the true colour of movement. The ADRs are in red, especially the tech group. So the movement in line with the global move with negative bias or can we emerge to neck out. The markets are creating a platform for slaughtering, but whether bulls or bears that dictate the terms are the question at this point in time. The Nifty shall not trade below 4121-4123 levels for a positive move. The RIL shall trade above 1681 level and it could bring long call and faith in the markets if it closes above 1701-03 and ONGC closes above 903.
For today, as the global cues are in favour of bears- so the heavy weights are weak when they trade below, RIL below 1673, ONGC below 881, SBI below 1306-08, Infy below 1981, RCOM 493, Bharti below 809-811.
Tata steel long above 598 and Sail above 135. The markets may move up or down but the FMCG group find buying support and cements also consolidate.Tata motors and M&M in news with new product launches and CAIRN with its exploration.

Is this fall can trap the bears?.

The Nifty is trading with in this range for last 8 trading sessions and the heavy weights are moving nowhere from where they have started. The moves are very range bound but the positive sign is that the fall is with low volume and the rise relatively with high volume. The Nifty could find its direction with a big trap on either side as this range bound consumed more than what is required.
The personal view is infavour of bears but the bulls are in no mood to give up. In case RIL trades below 1660, the bears enjoy the profits and many more will join them in the run. The caution is that Infosys shall not trade above 1995-98 and SBI shall not trade above 1331-33 levels. The global cues are likely to favour the bears.

Asian markets green but ADRs neutral,

The Asian markets are trading in positive zone with 0.5-1% gains. So the Indian markets may open positively above 4186. On the lower side, Nifty shall not trade below 4153-51 levels to advance from these levels. The local markets are extremely cautious to advance from these levels. The level of leverage is comfortable in the market and investors are ready to take a fall, as an opportunity is also a positive situation.
The Nifty shall cross 4218-21 levels and shall trade above 4206 to create a situation to take a long call. The RIL shall trade above 1685, SBI above 1321, Bharti above 821 and RCOM above 501-03 levels to trade with long call. The metals likely advance further. Those who are long above 129 can sell if it trades below 139, resistance @141. Any takers for TCS, techs may slide further.

The markets indecisive!

Markets pared all the gains made in Friday but managed to close 20pts. gain over the last weak. The Indian story is good but the screenplay is confused to give a decisive support either to bulls or to bears. This week will like to set the trend as the monsoon; political equations over the economic policies will create a platform for a decisive move. It is evenly spread that the June series may end smoothly without much damage to either side as the important results fall in the July series. Now the bulls strength lies in their ‘hopes’ of the 1st. quarter results, i.e. more than 20% growth in profits, especially in technology and banking sectors.
Personally, I think that the markets likely to correct deeply as the liquidity absorbed by the DLF and ICICI and may under perform after the listings. Unless the DLF quote above 650-675, it will create after effects in the whole market.
The markets are relatively strong so long it trade above 4121 level and RIL above 1620 level. In case tomorrow Nifty fails to close above 4193 level and any small correction in the Asian markets will trigger to crack our markets.

The spread of Green!

The world markets spreads the green and adds market cap. The Nifty likely to open with a min.of 20points gap and continue to gain, a caution at the last hour may call for a selling pressure as we are coming from negative to positive. The Nifty fails to trade comfortable above 4193, can confirm the down move.
The RIL may tarde above 1706 and may touch 1721-23, the RCOM may find shorts covered above 501-03 and touch 513-15 level. The autos, cements and FMCG may find bottom fishing and the techs likely to advance. The ICICI good above 911 and Bharti above 821. The smaller banks participate in the move, IDFC and IDBI may move up.