The tussle is tough????

The rate cut to US securities is really as big jolt to the bulls across the globe as their indices growth is in tandem irrespective of the local issues. The Nifty could hold above the 200 day DMA and the bottom building will happen once it trades above 5830 level for next big leap. The crucial juncture is at 5778-85 level Bulls have to acquire and bears has to protect.

The big news is RIL will use 4G for its BWA, telecom fore ray into telecom with 25000 cr investment in next 5 years. The appointment of Mr. Vivek Lal former Head of Boeing Indian operations confirms its interests to focus on Disaster Management with safety and security. The set back to Reliance at this juncture is their Hydrocarbon business plans. The DGH rejects its 2 well discoveries and asked to resubmit their budgets.

The results declared BHEL, HDFC Bank, IDBI bank, Indus are showing decent growth in their profits and the NPA are not alarming. The retail banking operations of these banks are also providing good margin to their bottom line. BHEL lead consortium won 1600 cr nuclear power project along with Alstom.

The metrological department expects a normal monsoon for this year, but it is too early to confirm the progress

The burgeoning power crisis in India has given opportunity for many players to participate in the UMPP, now the power companies are facing in the fuel supply, especially coal shortage. Thanks to the environmental concerns for new coal blocks to be opened in the dense forests. The floods in Australia gave a boost to price hike but the scarcity is continuing for this commodity of black gold, globally.

The leadership change at Infosys be it Mr.Narayana Murty who reties by August, Kris will fill the gap but the current jolt from Mohan das Pai and Dinesh is a big challenge to Mr.Sibulal, the last leader of the founders to chair the top slot. The biggest challenge now for Infosys for next decade or so is lack of charismatic face to lead the 1.3 lakh human resources across the globe and build confidence not only on the capabilities to deliver but on the transparency and client confidentiality. The transition may bring down the stock to its yearly lows and may underperform than the indices. The stock fails to trade above 3030 immediately and float above 2930 for next couple of months may bring this giant to its size by cutting the extra premium, may trade at 15-18 times of PE, can place it close to 1800-2000 the first stop will be at 2580-40 range. The ability to win big contacts may stop the fall immediately with some good announcements otherwise the result is sour to taste and written clearly on the wall.

The strength of emerging markets like India are independently dependent not the bourses but on the capital flows and the M&As. The human capital and untapped natural resources are our strength but need some policy decision to unleash the potential. The Govt. has committed in its statements but a back seat due to the corruption charges. The Nifty is likely to consolidate in the broad range of around these 4500-6500 range for a longer period than anticipated due to the other headwinds like inflation, corruption, global slow recovery and the next big threat is the “value of Dollar” and the acceptance by BRICS any longer

THE RIFT- A CHALLENGE????

There is no dissent between SD Shibulal & me: TV Mohandas Pai

Devina Sengupta, ET Bureau, Apr 16, 2011, 03.29am IST

Mostly seen in shirts with Infosys monogrammed on them, TV Mohandas Pai , one of the faces of the IT bellwether, cannot wear his company's name on his sleeves after June 12 anymore. Yesterday, after the announcement that he would be leaving the company he has spent 17 years in, Pai wondered aloud what he would do with all those shirts.

It's said you have a rivalry with Shibulal...

I do not know where this speculation started from. There is absolutely no dissent between Shibu and me. I have never hankered for the post of either the CEO or the COO, and therefore there has been no discord on this matter. I had been toying with the idea (of leaving) for some time. Since last year, I have tried to persuade (NR Narayana) Murthy quite a few times to let me go. After 17 years, no one wants to do the same thing. Therefore, the time was right for me to move on.

Didn't Murthy's persuasion make you rethink?

Yes, Murthy did not want to let go of me, and asked me if I wanted the posts (CEO/COO). He wanted me to follow the usual track of working with the company till I was 60. I refused. Although it is not easy to persuade Murthy, the winning argument was that "it's time to let me step down so that those younger can also have their time under the sun". And with Raghavendra K (now in Infosys BPO) and Nandan (Nilekani) moving, he is more prepared now, though the blow was not softer.

What about those who are at the helm and will likely be there till they are 60? How did they react to your reasoning?

I cannot take a decision for others, but it is my opinion that others should be allowed their time as well. If we remain, then we are always there to be consulted; decisions will not be taken independently. But I am not the example for others.

The younger lot at Infosys has not always agreed with the way the old guard worked. Is now, then, the time for change in the company?

Infosys has always allowed discussion and debate, where everyone can express without fear but without being disrespectful. They are allowed to make changes as long as it does not interfere with the company's value system.

The Economic Times coverage uncovers........thanks to ET-team

The CROSS roads to many????

The Bulls diehard effort to keep the indices in positive territory was spoiled by the IT bellwether weak results and the top brass churning. The numbers are weak but excusable in any give other scenario than this time, cost an wealth erosion of close to 10% in a single session. The rupee strengthen in the lat quarter added fuel to fire for this disappointment for other mid-cap IT’s.

Mr. MohanDas Pai, the missed stalwart of Infosys, jolted the company and the news maker at many a time, confronted for top slot but now decided to pursue his dream passion after the long drawn aspire to be a CEO ended. The diminishing light of hope on a D-day triggered for new avenues in the emerging country like India to one’s worth.

As far as numbers language is concerned, Nifty is good for Bulls when it trades above or in the range of 5820-75 with an upward bias. The Nifty is being guided in a band of 5440-6030 for at least the elections results and the popular mandate is tested. There is no doubt that the ruling Govt. There is a tight band move of 5300-5775 range for above close to 45 days is now the biggest challenge for the bears to crack the fort. The recent developments in the Europe and the rising inflation in India are headwinds for the rise. The Infosys spooked the hopes of the Bulls though the Global IT scenario looks bright.

The BRICS meeting and there on the Nuclear deals with Kazakhstan shall bring some hope to energy sector. The trade relations among the BRICS and the local currency transactions shall weaken the dollar further may offer more trouble to US dominance.

The Reliance is now in a very narrow band of 1210 to 980 range for quite long time may spur a war between the Bulls and Bears as the weightage in Nifty is an advantage to Bears, may bring this to 875-860 level that may pull the Nifty to lower levels. 

The unnatural….naturally?

There is no rule built in the market to go about. This is the only reason for the existence of the betting centre’s across the globe on economy and growth, though legally accepted by the Governance participated by the risk lovers be it highly knowledgeable or the highly paid market makers.

The market allows all payers with out distinction or discrimination. This is the reason why the retail flies flock around the burning flame. So the market behaiour is unnatural in its sense while reacting or responding to an event/news but the fact is that is the natural behavior.

The dependence on FII in flow and liquidity is the driving force for the run in the recent past. But the question is the driving force is BLIND?. If so, who are the other players living in the system with ignorance. There is single no bad news highlighted for the last 14-16 days across the globe despite the spiraling crude price, tensions in Libya no good economic scenario in Japan. In India, the heads at RBI started accepted the new norm while failed to control the inflation as “ high inflation in high growth economy is acceptable”.

Now coming to the numbers, the Nifty shorting was initiated after the March expiry and the Nifty has risen 100+ points from there. The retailer is accepting the rise as rise but it was inflated. I am not in the camp that the markets will crumble immediately but definitely touch the 5640 level when it falls below 5850 level. The range established is for the sake of selling but not for the further rise. The Banking sector will get its bone cracked to a level where the yearly lows are challenged very easily. The leaders like SBI shall not trade above 2865-69 level and the ICICI shall not trade above 1140 level.

The BULLS charged WELL ?....

The Indian markets enjoyed the best part of market capitalization rise with positive outlook of economy, negligible damage of  Japans’ disaster and the positive out look of US. The Warrenbuffett visit and his BIG dream of India made an upsurge in the whole scenario, though temporary but the impact is decent.  

The Indian auto mobile zoooom is continuing unabated. The largest passenger vehicle manufacturer Maruti made impressive rise above 22%, TataMotors above 11%, M&M above 18& and the two wheeler manufacturers also posted above 20% growth YOY is a very positive sign despite of constraints and rate hikes. The challenge ahead is to maintain the growth in view of the Japan,s components supply disruptions.

The Textile industry has got the Govt favour by more than 7400 crs than earlier year for TUF and the industry is also doing well. The rising of cost of cotton is more than anticipated at raw material front which is the highest in the last decade. After decades of waiting, the promoters of major textiles companies are interested to take advantage of the uptrend in the business cycle like Arvind, Naharspinning, Aditya Birla Nuvo, Digjam and Ginnifilaments.

The Nifty has surprised many while scaling to 5850 level from 5300 level as there is no single stop in the journey. The traders who used to go short after 3 days got trapped and now struggling to manage. The rise in the stock markets is a global phenomenon; the bulls trapped the bears at the bottom layer of this upsurge when the Japans tragedy is prevalent in news. But the so called negative news was not vanished as the crude is surging, gold and silver are at non stop mode , the raw material cost of many industries is burgeoning creates supply side inflation. The aftermath calculations/impact of Japan earth quake, repercussions of weak global especially EU economy is a big challenge to stock markets to grow further from these levels.

The Individual names like Reliance and ONGC are in bull grip and the technology stocks are in buying mode with a positive outlook can keep the markets to float above 5680 level. Now the challenge is whether to take the Nifty to next level being bulls in full control of the situation or Bull may be trapped at higher levels bruise beating by Bears taking advantage of the global economic weakness.

CONGRATS TO INDIA

WE ARE CHAMPIONS IN CRICKET AND IN EMERGING MARKETS.

CONGRATULATIONS TO TEAM INDIA.

CONGRATS TO BULLS

CONGRATS TO EVERY WEALTH CREATOR IN INDIA, MADE INDIA PROUD.

THOSE WHO LOVED INDIA, LIVED FOR INDIA, MADE INDIA PROUD ARE CONGRATULATED.

Best weekly rally- a boon for now???

The bottoms are intact for now despite of the global negative news. The strength of Nifty is now better than a week ago and the whole scenario is changed the technicals for now as good bottom support is at 5400 and the 5500 is a good support where bulls can take advantage of buying again on average cost. The strength gained can be even extended upto 5440 level. So the Bears have to wait for a longer period than anticipated for yearly low cuts of Nifty and its major supporting stocks.

The Bears can say thanks to the rising crude prices, Libya crisis and the Fukushima nuclear crisis. As a matter of fact now the Japan nuclear crisis is more of an environmental concern than of economic concern. The economic impact of the Tsunami can be seen after 15^th April, so that the testing time to japans ability to face and come out of this grave crisis is tested against the burgeoning power crisis and the exhausted inventory of the industry. The devastation effect was on the infrastructure especially power crisis. This is seen as immediate impact on the Japan’s automobile industry and their ancillary.

In India the growth indicators are now favouring the Bulls but the future is looking bleak as the inflation is stubborn to yield below 8% and the Govt spending likely to be eased. The political situation is becoming fluid and the populist support to Congress is decreasing due to scams and the gratification charges. The Central govt is not strong to make any big policy changes that can add value to markets other than the GST, banking amendment bill. The serious concern is now on the survival of the Manmohan Singh ability as PM to lead a Govt. with little damage to populist measures initiated and the corruption charges being faced.

Where are we now???? any way....

Where are we now? with the built-up bottoms …..

..........EXACTLY 4 DAYS AWAY FROM MARCH F&O CLOSING.

The Nifty has made a case for it self to build its bottoms on the strong foundations admist of global turmoil such as natural calamities, manmade wars, and uproars against regimes. The severe deep cut from 6300 level to 5180 level gave an opportunity to build the bottoms at 5200 level and from there on at 5650 level. The bottoms are built up for sure provided it stays above 5370-80 and crossed the 5540-30 level with confidence.

NOW THE CURRENT PRICES ARE ALSO EXACTLY AT( same levels) 4 DAYS AHEAD OF FEBRUARY CLOSING.

OFCOURCE there are some out performers like Reliance by Rs 7%, LIC is also by 6%, Kotak bank up by 8%, Axis up by 8%, Coal India is up above by 18% and Relcap up by 20%but the disappointment is with SesaGoa by 8%, Ranbaxy by 12%.

The HLL under performed where as ITC out performed. SBI, Tatamotors and Tatasteel are underperforming by 4-6%.

The Nifty is just 1% up………………OK

Budget-2011-12- YES____But????....

The Pranab’s budget is same as earlier to focus on demand and propel growth. Te rural demand and in house economy building is good but the corporate houses are to be taken care as well.

The Soaps and Agarbatti companies share lots of fragrance of success.

The GST will lure all but the waiting is more painful to FMGC companies.

The cold chain and the chain action of profit growth is assured to those companies but the rise of copper may put some pressure.

The ready made branded garments put some 10% higher “pride cost” of buying but the quality was at yesterdays, level.

The low cost housing below 25 lakhs is the next mantra but the rise in the cement prices hampers the construction growth. The mall growth and SEZ growth get hampered and a severe blow to high rise illuminated luxury shopping. The IT and ITes are at foul cry with the introduction of MAT to SEZ. The big brother Reliance joins the group to provide chorus.

A severe blow to SESAGOA and others involved in miming of iron ore exports. The local sourcing of quality iron is at cheaper and easier than earlier.

The MAT was raised from 18-18.5% but the Corporate surcharge was reduced from 7.5% to 5%.

The good is the automobiles were spared from rise in excise duty.

A cool heath and rise in hospital bill and including Insurance tax is like filling the coffer with smile and sending the coffin.

The automobile is vrooming, banking sector in neutral, cement is cool, diamonds and jewelry lost the shining, IT is totally down, construction ok but infra is good with rising costs but power sector is good, steel is good, the FMCG is with fragrance,  phama needs a dose of pill but the corporate hospital and the AC hotels that serve a cool beer needs to pay the service tax. Those who want to fly shall pay more and their branded garment costs a lot. The oil and exploration is in demand with energy so is the power sector. Enjoy the budget but not the markets????????.

So sail with world markets and down with our weight unless or MF attract large capital INFLOW.

Budget-2011-12- YES____But????....

The Pranab’s budget is same as earlier to focus on demand and propel growth. Te rural demand and in house economy building is good but the corporate houses are to be taken care as well.

The Soaps and Agarbatti companies share lots of fragrance of success.

The GST will lure all but the waiting is more painful to FMGC companies.

The cold chain and the chain action of profit growth is assured to those companies but the rise of copper may put some pressure.

The ready made branded garments put some 10% higher “pride cost” of buying but the quality was at yesterdays, level.

The low cost housing below 25 lakhs is the next mantra but the rise in the cement prices hampers the construction growth. The mall growth and SEZ growth get hampered and a severe blow to high rise illuminated luxury shopping. The IT and ITes are at foul cry with the introduction of MAT to SEZ. The big brother Reliance joins the group to provide chorus.

A severe blow to SESAGOA and others involved in miming of iron ore exports. The local sourcing of quality iron is at cheaper and easier than earlier.

The MAT was raised from 18-18.5% but the Corporate surcharge was reduced from 7.5% to 5%.

The good is the automobiles were spared from rise in excise duty.

A cool heath and rise in hospital bill and including Insurance tax is like filling the coffer with smile and sending the coffin.

The automobile is vrooming, banking sector in neutral, cement is cool, diamonds and jewelry lost the shining, IT is totally down, construction ok but infra is good with rising costs but power sector is good, steel is good, the FMCG is with fragrance,  phama needs a dose of pill but the corporate hospital and the AC hotels that serve a cool beer needs to pay the service tax. Those who want to fly shall pay more and their branded garment costs a lot. The oil and exploration is in demand with energy so is the power sector. Enjoy the budget but not the markets????????.

So sail with world markets and down with our weight unless or MF attract large capital INFLOW.

STOCK MARKET Outlook 2011

Sensex: Outlook 2011

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INVESTMENT FOCUS

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The Sensex was volatile in the first nine months of 2010 and threatened to violate the 16,000-support, twice in February and then in May. But such a breakdown was averted on both occasions and the mood turned gung-ho, once it broke past the 18,500-hurdle, to take it very close to its previous life-time high of 21,208.

Long-term trend

As we stand at the threshold of a new decade and a New Year, the long-term charts have never looked this exciting. We are not talking about the next 12 months. It is a given fact that the year ahead will be choppy. It is the next 10 years that could see multi-fold appreciation in the benchmark.

It is fairly obvious that following a long-drawn bear market between 1992 and 2001, a fresh bull market is now in progress. Wave 1 of this bull market ended at the January 2008 peak of 21,207. The 2008 crash was the second wave that ended at 8,047 in March 2009. The third wave of this bull market is now in progress.

At the commencement of 2010, the rally from 8,047 had not progressed sufficiently to enable us to judge if it was the B wave of the second wave, or the commencement of the third wave upward. In simple terms, we expected the bear market to have legs that could make it drag on for a few more years. But a strong move above 18,500 and the index nearing its previous peak indicates that we are in a fresh leg upward of the long-term uptrend.

The targets for the third wave that is in progress from 8,047 trough are 39,337, 58,743 and hold your breath, 90,160. This wave can terminate at either of these targets and our preference veers towards the second. Extrapolation of the move that began from 1980 low also gives us a Sensex target in the 6-digit.

And the time when these can be achieved…Wave 1 took six years and three months. Wave three can be at least as long or 1.618 of wave 1. That gives us mid- 2015 or mid-2019. That is, the next decade is going to be good for Indian equities. The long-term outlook will be roiled only if the Sensex goes on to close below 13,000. If corrections halt above 16,000, that would reinforce the positive long-term view for the index.

2011

There will, however, be plenty of corrections, both shallow and sharp, that will provide buying opportunities within this uptrend. One such correction is in progress that can keep the Sensex in the range between 19,000 and 21,500 in the early part of 2011. Our preferred trajectory for the year ahead is that the index breaks above the upper boundary at 21,500 in the first half of the year to reach 22,846, 25,177 or 28,950. The Sensex can trade in a higher range with the lower boundary at 20,000 after it achieves either of the afore-mentioned targets.

If the Sensex turns tail and breaches 19,000, it will receive strong support between 18,000 and 18,500. The next halt for the index would be at 16,000. Our preferred range for the year is between 18,000 and 25,000. The upper limit is 28,950 and lower is 16,000.

THANKS TO BUSINESS LINE....

31st Dec-09 = 31st Dec-10

THE STOCKS IN F&O SEGMENT GROWTH.
The price are adjusted to Current Face value. (ZEE and Bajaj auto are exceptions-Business demerger)

31st Dec-09 = 31st Dec-10

The Rise and Fall of  F&O segment stocks. The worst is in ADAG stocks and the best is Motors. Except Zee, other areas adjusted to current FaceValue.

No high returns in 2011 but....

Expect 10-12% returns in 2011

Jitendra Kumar Gupta / Mumbai December 31, 2010, 0:24 IST

Focus will shift to midcaps/smallcaps and firms with lower leverage, believe analysts.

Premium valuations, global uncertainty and higher inflation will lead to moderate returns of 10-12 per cent in 2011 for the broader markets, say money managers.

Unlike the 80-plus per cent returns in 2009 and 17 per cent in 2010, investors will need, for the year ahead, to temper their expectations from the broader markets and focus more on mid-caps and small-caps, available at attractive valuations. Expensive valuations and uncertainty could lead to significant volatility, with the Sensex likely to swing between 16,000 and 23,000.
 

Outlook for the markets in 2011
Sensex to trade in range 16K-23K, First half could be more volatile  Broader markets expensively valued, focus to shift to mid and small caps Expect modest returns of about 10%
Events to watch out for
Euro zone issues, Chinese tightening , US economic recovery Surging crude oil prices, higher interest rates, inflation leading to possible earnings downgrades, Budget, government finances
Investing strategy
Invest in companies offering revenues and earnings visibility, and trading at lower valuations  Stick to companies not dependent on external borrowing and having manageable debt, Stock specific approach will pay better dividends Debt instruments a better bet than holding cash
Sectors to buy	Top picks
Mid-cap IT companies Banking, Infrastructure Capital Goods Textiles	Indian Hotels Coal India BHEL L&T Power Grid ICICI Bank Tulip Telecom Renuka Sugar
What to avoid
Telecom Real Estate FMCG

Euro, inflation key concerns,
Several factors, domestic and global, could lead to volatility. “Increasingly, global events will influence Indian equity markets. The problematic euro zone economies, uncertainty over the US economic recovery and an expected slowing in the Chinese economy are the biggest worries,” says Trideeb Pathak, senior director, equities, IDFC Mutual Fund. Experts cite North Korea as another flash point investors need to watch. Local concerns due to rising commodity prices, inflation and an expected rise in interest rates could lead to a jump in input cost and erode operating and net margins, especially of capital-intensive and interest rate-sensitive sectors.

Expect earnings’ downgrades
Analysts say there is a high probability of earnings’ downgrades. It could happen later next year, as the actual impact of inflation and interest rates starts kicking in. The recent rise in crude oil and metal prices could also have a ripple effect on companies and consumers, leading to pressure on demand. Estimated earnings of the Sensex for 2011-12, now Rs 1,240-1,250 per share, could come down. And, valuations which look reasonable could turn expensive.

Dilip Bhat, joint managing director of broking firm Prabhudas Lilladher believes measures taken to deal with the global (liquidity concerns due to Europe) and domestic issues (higher commodity prices) could easily clip off some points from India’s economic growth and temper earnings growth, leaving these vulnerable to downgrades.

Hotels, mid-cap IT, infra preferred 
The year was good for commodities, information technology, banking and auto, among other sectors. However, this year, money managers prefer some of the beaten-down sectors and those which exhibit good visibility. Also, sectors that generally participate in the second leg of the economic recovery, such as those in the services space, including hotels and tourism, and mid-cap IT companies, could prove good bets.

Infrastructure is another sector that analysts recommend, as most companies here are trading at 10-12 times next year’s earnings, despite strong visibility. Also, analysts expect a pick-up in new orders due to the rush to achieve the targets set for the XI Five-Year Plan, ending March 2012.

On the back of a pick-up in the industrial capex and government spending, the capital goods sector should do well in the year ahead. As the economy grows and the credit growth remains firm, banking, especially the private banks, are also expected to do well. Many also believe the textiles’ space (trading at eight times the estimated earnings for 2010-11) this year could be a better option to invest, as things are turning in favour of the companies, especially those with the domestic presence.

What to avoid
Telecom is among the leading contenders, due to regulatory uncertainty and heightened competition. Others such as real estate are in the list, given a rapid rise in real estate prices, interest rates and leveraged balance sheets. Fast moving consumer goods, which did well in the current rally, could deliver lower returns with the rises in input cost, and higher valuations, at 25 times the 2011-12 estimated earnings.

What should you do?
As the broader markets are expensive and expected to remain volatile, most money managers advise that you stick to high-quality stocks and avoid portfolio leveraging.

Analysts say a stock-specific approach will work in 2011, but investors should not simply chase returns at the cost of quality, which could be tested in the year 2011. The memories of several scams, which broke in the year 2010, are still fresh. With investigations on, investors need to do more due diligence before investing.

If the global uncertainties materialise, they could pose renewed concerns for our markets and lead to a steep correction. In the light of those risks, investors should look at companies which not only offer growth but also trade at reasonable valuations. “I would try to keep the price earnings ratio of the portfolio down to the extent possible,” says Manish Sonthalia, vice president and fund manager, Motilal Oswal AMC.

Money managers such as Trideeb Pathak of IDFC add that it’d be better to stick with companies which do not require much capex immediately and ones not dependent on external borrowings, as interest costs and the impact of global events could skew the picture.

With inputs from Ram Prasad Sahu

Thanks to Business Standard for providing this excellent article. 

I have different views and concerns on the economy of India and rest of the world. The article is good to make our opinion and be elaborately discussed all the possibilities and the concerns.

HAPPY NEW YEAR-2011

WISH YOU HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR-2011.

THE NEW YEAR-2011 SHALL BRING HAPPINESS, SUCCESS AND WEALTH TO INVESTORS.

NSE HOLIDAYS-2011

1 26-Jan-11    Wednesday        Republic Day

2 02-Mar-11   Wednesday       Mahashivratri

3 12-Apr-11     Tuesday           Ram Navmi

4 14-Apr-11 Thursday              Dr. Ambedkar Jayanti

5 22-Apr-11 Friday                  Good Friday

6 15-Aug-11 Monday               Independence Day

7 31-Aug-11 Wednesday         Ramzan ID

8 01-Sep-11 Thursday             Ganesh Chaturthi 

9 06-Oct-11 Thursday             Dasara

10 26-Oct-11 Wednesday       Laxmi Puja*

11 27-Oct-11 Thursday           Diwali - Balipratipada

12 07-Nov-11 Monday           Bakri Id

13 10-Nov-11 Thursday          Gurunanak Jayanti

14 06-Dec-11 Tuesday            Moharum

The holidays falling on Saturday / Sunday are as follows: 

S No Date Day Description

1 01-Jan-11 Saturday New Year

2 20-Mar-11 Sunday Holi

3 16-Apr-11 Saturday Mahavir Jayanti

4 01-May-11 Sunday May Day

5 02-Oct-11 Sunday Gandhi Jayanti

6 25-Dec-11 Sunday Christmas

*Muhurat Trading will be conducted. 

CASH available...????

Govt makes 2010 record year for public floats BS Reporter / Mumbai December 25, 2010, 0:40 IST 59 firms launch IPOs in 2010 to raise a total of Rs 36,017 crore. With the government tapping the capital market at regular intervals, 2010 proved to be a record year in terms of money mobilised through initial public offers (IPOs) and follow-on offers (FPOs).The year saw Rs 67,595 crore being raised from the primary market, the highest ever in a calendar year. According to PRIME Database, 59 companies launched IPOs in 2010 to raise a total of Rs 36,017.4 crore, more than the earlier record of Rs 34,179.1 crore in 2007. The year saw 100 unlisted companies entering the capital market. Investment bankers said the mood was buoyant as a number of fundamentally good companies entered the market and there was enough demand from investors. “Investors are always ready to back good quality companies that are appropriately priced,” says A Murugappan, executive director, ICICI Securities. “If an issue is fundamentally driven and backed by a good story, there are enough takers. One needs to remember that investors are sensitive to valuations. I also expect India allocations (of foreign institutional investors) to go up in the coming year.” The year also saw India’s largest-ever IPO hit the market. Public sector heavyweight Coal India raised Rs 15,199.44 crore through a primary offering in October. In all, there were 14 issues (IPOs and FPOs) with a size of more than Rs 1,000 crore each. The year was also witness to the country’s first issue of Indian Depository Receipts, when Standard Chartered Plc entered the market with an issue of nearly Rs 2,500 crore. Between all the mega issues, there were 19 offerings with an issue size of less than Rs 100 crore. Gravita India, Sea TV Networks, Talwalkar Fitness, Technofab Engineering, Bedmutha Industries and Thangamayil Jewellery were among the smaller companies that listed on the bourses. FPO high While IPOs touched a new high, FPOs created a record too. The year saw eight FPOs collectively mopping up a record Rs 31,577.25 crore, nearly twice the earlier record. It is also more than the cumulative amount raised through FPOs in the previous five years. The earlier record was Rs 17,389.4 crore raised in 2004. Six government-owned companies and a couple of private entities launched their FPOs this year. The two largest FPOs during the year, of NTPC and REC, were also those that experimented with the auction mechanism approved by the market regulator early this year. In this system, an issuer has to announce only a floor price (instead of a price band) and institutional investors can bid at any price above this. Retail investors can bid at the floor price. THANKS TO BUSINESS-STANDARD ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ So long as the Govt. makes the IPO or FPO on regular basis, the markets likely to float above 5800 level.The major follow-up action at the high value profit generating stocks on block, the FII and the investors maintains the premium in the market. The only concern of the market players and the possible threat to the Govt is the SURVIVAL. The scams and rising of bare minimum food prices like Aloo and Onions and unveiling sugar price rise. The essential commodity price rise in BJP regime gave power to Congress and now it is likely that the developments are favouring the opposition.

THE POSITIVE SIGNS....

 THE POSITIVE NEWS IS THE HOPE TO THE BULLS AS THE ECONOMY IS DOING GOOD AND THE GOING ALSO GOOD........THE NIFTY 20% RISE FROM THESE LEVELS IS 7200+...EVERY THING NOW LOOKS ROSY AS WE ARE LOOKING THE POSITIVE SIDE.......????????

BSE Sensex seen rising 20 percent by end-2011 - poll

On Friday 24 December 2010, 11:44 PM

By Sumeet Chatterjee and Devidutta Tripathy

MUMBAI (Reuters) - The BSE Sensex is likely to rise nearly 20 percent by the end of next year, as a fast-growing economy and strong corporate earnings boost overseas portfolio inflows, a Reuters poll found.

The main 30-share Bombay Stock Exchange index will rise to 23,350 by end-2011 from close of 19,696.48 on December 8, according to the median response from 18 market participants, which include investment banks and brokerage firms.

The index in Asia's third-largest economy should rise 12 percent by mid-2011 to 22,000, the poll taken over the past week showed, higher than the 21,500 level seen in a September poll.

"The optimism on economic growth forecast, hopes of good earnings would continue to attract investors to India," said Neeraj Dewan, a director at brokerage Quantum Securities in New Delhi.

India, a member of the BRIC group of rapidly developing countries, is forecast to see economic growth of almost 9 percent in this fiscal year to March, with it accelerating further in following years, levels rivalled only by China.

Hopes of strong economic growth in India have led foreign funds to pump more than $29 billion into Indian equities so far in 2010, the highest ever, on top of the $17.5 billion purchased last year.

The overseas inflows have driven the main index almost 13 percent higher this year. Russia 's benchmark RTS index is up 11 percent this year, while Brazil is up about 1 percent and China is down 13 percent.

"They have poured in huge money this year. They might not match the same inflow next year, but a pullout is not likely," Quantum Securities Dewan said, referring to foreign institutional investors.

Analysts said that foreign investments in Indian shares were unlikely to be severely impacted by a string of corruption scandals that the government is currently mired in, though it could impact sentiment in the near term.

"The scandals will have a short-term sentiment impact and there will be greater scrutiny of corporate governance issues, but in the long run investors will focus on economy and company earnings," R.K. Gupta, fund manager at Taurus Mutual Fund, said.

Seven out of eight respondents in the poll said they did not think the current scandals would tarnish India's image as an investment destination.

PREMIUM VALUATION

Surging interest rates and global economic uncertainties as Europe struggles to contain its debt crisis are likely to be the main concerns for the Indian markets in the year ahead, analysts said.

The Mumbai stock index rose 81 percent in 2009 after the economy was spared the worst of the global economic downturn. It had posted its worst yearly loss in 2008, when it slumped by more than half.

The forecast for the BSE's Sensex index at the end of 2011 ranged from 17,500 to 26,600.

The index trades at 18.9 times forward earnings, higher than China's Shanghai Composite Index that trades at 15.4 times and Japan 's 16.9 percent.

(Additional reporting by Ami Shah; Polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)

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