INDIAN MARKETS ARE SERIOUSLY UNWINDING THE LONG POSITIONS FOR WANT OF NEW TRIGGERS AND POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY ADDING. PREPARE FOR HDFC NEWS.
Saturday, December 07, 2013
Thursday, December 05, 2013
Nifty target at 6,900 - UBS....!!!
Reuters
December 5, 2013 Last Updated at 09:21 IST
UBS sets Nifty target at 6,900 for 2014
Says tapering is not a big fundamental worry for IndiaUBS set Nifty 2014 target at 6,900 and said it expects the index to trade between 5,500 and 6,900 for the year based on its valuations and FY15 earnings growth estimates of 10-15% for the NSE index.The investment bank adds tapering is not a big fundamental worry for India, but a depreciating rupee may yet be a likely trend. More than 30% of Nifty earnings benefit from the depreciating rupee and this could provide some stability for overall market earnings.UBS added that elections are the key theme for first half of 2014 and the recent rally implies that a Narendra Modi-led BJP government is no longer viewed as a low-probability scenario. The BJP emerged as the biggest winner in four key state elections, exit polls forecast on Wednesday, a possible blow to the ruling Congress party ahead of a general election due next year.The bank is "overweight" on Indian IT, telecommunications, media, oil and gas, private banks and power shares, while being "underweight" on two-wheelers, consumer discretionary, infrastructure and capital goods, government banks.UBS remains "neutral" on Indian four-wheelers, rural-focused consumer staples, metals, mining and pharmaceutical stocks.http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/ubs-sets-nifty-target-at-6-900-for-2014-113120500108_1.html
Tuesday, December 03, 2013
CAIRN INDIA STRIKES...KG BASIN BOUNTIFUL OIL RESERVES..!!!
Cairn strikes east coast oil bounty, 10,000 bpd output likely from 2017
Pranav Nambiar | New Delhi | Updated: Dec 03 2013, 05:29 ISSUMMARYCAIRN India has struck significant oil reserves in its Krishna-Godavari (KG) Basin onshore field KG-ONN-2003/1 with productionCAIRN India has struck significant oil reserves in its Krishna-Godavari (KG) Basin onshore field KG-ONN-2003/1 with production estimated at 8,000-10,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) starting 2017. This opens up a larger play for Cairn India on the east coast, joining the likes of Reliance Industries (RIL) and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) that have made large finds in the region.As per the declaration of commerciality (DoC) documents submitted by Cairn to the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) on November 29, the company has in-place oil resources of about 320 million barrels, of which about 40 million barrels can be recovered. It has also found small amounts of gas with recoverable reserves of around 70 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas.
The oil resource estimate is based on the appraisal of three discovered wells in the field — Nagayalanka SE, 1Z and 1Z ST. Cairn will invest around $600 million in drilling 20 wells of the next three to four years and an additional $165 million for creating the infrastructure to produce oil from the field. Oil ministry sources say Cairn India’s reserves in the field can be revised upwards as it drills more wells. The net present value (NPV) of the project stands at around $ 900 million.Cairn’s KG onshore field has a tight reservoir with low permeability, thus requiring the company to use hydraulic fracking techniques to drill the wells. The recovery factor of the KG field is therefore just 10-15%, while at Ravva, it is as high as 60%.
The sedimentary formations where Cairn’s KG field is located in are also called Mesozoic rocks and these formations formed over 100 million years back have seldom been tapped in India, though they account for nearly 50% of global hydrocarbon finds. Mesozoics are mainly found in the western regions of Narmada, Cambay and Saurashtra, in the east around Cauvery and the KG Basin as well as the north along the higher Himalaya.According to industry experts, as the investments are lower in the case of onshore fields, the threshold for commerciality is lower and from that perspective, 8,000-10,000
bopd is a reasonably good find. In contrast, a deepwater field which requires platforms for separating oil and water as well as pipelines for evacuating oil is generally commercial at higher levels of around 30,000 bopd. ONGC’s recent oil find of about 100 million tonnes or 700 million barrels of oil in its east coast KG-DWN-98/2 field is larger than the Cairn find but this is located in the deepwater region. “In the case of onshore fields, we need just tankers to evacuate the oil. So, even small onshore oil finds are typically commercially viable,” said a public sector oil company official. The latest find also opens up a huge play for the company in the east coast. Cairn India will soon begin exploring its offshore KG basin block KG-OSN-2009/3 after it received a government nod to undertake a pared down minimum work programme in the block. The private sector oil and gas company will invest Rs 500 crore to undertake the MWP and subsequently ramp up investments depending on the prospectivity of the block.
Cairn is also undertaking 4D seismic work to identify pockets of oil deposits which have bypassed east coast Ravva fields. The oil production from Ravva is seeing a natural decline averaged 22,600 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in the July-September quarter. The results from the 4D tests are expected to be released by the end of the financial year.Cairn’s current production is 1,78,000 boepd and expects to exit FY14e at greater than 2,00,000 boepd, led by Rajasthan which produced around 1,74,200 boepd in the previous quarter.
Saturday, November 30, 2013
INDIA Q2 economic growth GOOD...
Q2 economic growth at 4.8% signals recovery
K. R. SRIVATS
Farm output, power boost performance; mining, manufacturing still lag
Farm output, power boost performance; mining, manufacturing still lag
NEW DELHI, NOV. 29:
Sending the first signs of a recovery, the economy grew at a higher-than-expected 4.8 per cent in the second quarter, mainly on the back of a robust 4.6 per cent increase in farm output and a good showing by the electricity (7.7 per cent), construction (4.3 per cent) and financial services (10 per cent) sectors.
The agriculture sector had recorded modest 1.7 per cent growth in the same quarter of the last fiscal year. However, a poor showing by the manufacturing and mining sectors kept the GDP growth under 5 per cent for the fourth straight quarter. Manufacturing grew just 1 per cent, while mining output shrank 0.4 per cent, according to official data released on Friday. The latest GDP growth is higher than the 4.4 per cent rise recorded in the first quarter this fiscal, but much lower than the 5.2 per cent recorded in July-September last fiscal. For the six-months ended September 30, the economy grew 4.6 per cent, lower than 5.3 per cent growth in same period last fiscal.
The economy has been hit hard by dipping demand, indicated by low private final consumption expenditure, which grew 2.16 per cent this quarter against 2.54 per cent in the corresponding previous period. High interest rates are blamed for the low demand.With persistent inflation, the RBI has not been able to lower key rates. This may, it is feared, stay its hand yet again on December 18 despite the continuing sluggishness in the economy.Economic Affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram expressed happiness over the second-quarter performance. “There were many people who were predicting that growth will be less (than in the first quarter). I believe in the third and fourth quarters you will see a pick up,” said Mayaram. He expects overall economic growth in the current fiscal to be 5 per cent-plus.
Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia also expressed confidence that growth would pick up in the second half. The economy is now in much better shape, he noted.
But India Inc is worried. Chandrajit Banerjee, Director-General, Confederation of Indian Industry, said GDP growth of below 5 per cent for the fourth consecutive quarter is worrisome. Assocham President Rana Kapoor called for immediate steps to boost the manufacturing and mining sectors.
srivats.kr@thehindu.co.in
(This article was published on November 29, 2013)
Thursday, November 28, 2013
Rs 20,000 crore National Optical Fibre Network project...!!! HUGE OPPORTUNITY!!!!
Just 60 gram panchayats covered under broadband project so far
By PTI | 28 Nov, 2013, 04.19PM IST
NEW DELHI: The government has provided broadband connectivity to only 60 gram panchayats till now under the Rs 20,000 crore NOFN project, which has to cover 2.5 lakh panchayats by September 2015. "It is only 60 gram panchayats out of 2.5 lakh gram panchayats, the percentage is minuscule," Universal Service Obligation Fund (USOF) Administrator N Ravi Shankar said when asked as to how many panchayats have been provided with broadband connectivity .. Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/26528512.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
GREEN ENERGY..HOT MONEY..BRIGHT FUTURE!!!
Malini Bhupta | Mumbai
November 28, 2013 Last Updated at 00:45 IST
Foreign investors queue up for road & clean energy assets
This is because not only are valuations attractive, new opportunities have also arisen in sectors such as renewable energyIndia’s infrastructure sector may be burdened by high debt and slowing growth, but this isn’t dampening its attraction for foreign investors. This is because not only are valuations attractive, new opportunities have also arisen in sectors such as renewable energy.Foreign investors, especially long-only funds and large renewable players, are either snapping up assets in this segment or setting up projects in India.Six months ago, this wasn’t the case; promoters weren’t willing to consider an outright sale of their road assets. But with interest costs biting and the rate cycle showing no sign of a turn, infrastructure developers are looking to unlock capital by divesting some of their projects to reduce stress.
| FUNDS FLOW |
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GMR Infra and JP Associates have conveyed to investors they are considering selling road and power assets to unlock capital and lower their respective debts. GMR has already signed two road deals, while JP Power Ventures is in talks with a couple of sovereign funds to sell controlling stakes in its hydro-electric power plants. Of the 80 operational road projects constructed under the public-private partnership (PPP) mode, more than half are considering raising capital through a part or majority stake sale.In the renewable energy space, large foreign investors, be it sovereign funds, pension funds or large companies, are looking at acquiring operating assets that are relatively stress-free, or setting up new projects. Investment bankers say deals to the tune of $2 billion are in the works and will be announced soon.Gaurav Gupta, managing director of Macquarie Capital, an investment bank, says: “As more assets are developed and operational, there will be greater interest from long-only funds. We see greater interest today than a few months ago. The interest is across sectors — renewables, transportation, etc. I think we will see deals worth a couple of billion in the next 12 months.”In the last six months, six large road deals, together worth about Rs 6,000 crore, have been recorded and many more are in the works. Currently, operating road assets are the least stressed, which is why a lot of deals have already happened in this space. SBI Macquarie Infrastructure Fund has invested $300 million in road assets through the last nine months, which makes it one of the largest investors in the sector.There is heightened interest in the roads and renewables sector from foreign investors. A couple of months ago, Government of Singapore Investment Corporation invested Rs 1,000 crore in Greenko, a Hyderabad-based renewable energy company.The company owns and manages renewable energy assets across several Indian states. SunEdison, an American company that owns solar power assets in India, is looking at joint venture partners to set up solar plants in the country. In July this year, GE Energy Financial Services invested Rs 257 crore in Gati Infrastructure’s hydro power plant in Sikkim.Raja Lahiri, partner for transaction advisory services at Grant Thornton, says, “Clean energy is one of the hottest sectors globally and foreign investors are looking at India because the government is in the process of signing a lot of power purchase agreements in the sector.”As the government eyes power purchase agreements and considers giving sops to investors, a spate of deals is in the pipeline. The government plans to draw Rs 90,000 crore in investments through four solar ultra mega power projects. Investment bankers say solar power companies such as First Solar and SunEdison are considering setting up solar power plants in India.Rahul Gupta, director at Rays Power Experts, which operates and develops solar power plants for its customers, says, “We are in talks with some foreign investors and some investment opportunities are expected to open up in the coming months, as the government is expected to sign power purchase agreements in the renewable energy sector. Foreign investors are interested in renewables because the IRR (internal rate of return) works out to 14-15 per cent and even if they hedge for currency risks, the returns are lucrative.”Also, there are no fuel linkage woes in the renewables space. And, the government is fast-tracking clearances before inviting companies to sign power purchase agreements.
http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/foreign-investors-queue-up-to-acquire-road-clean-energy-assets-113112700804_1.html
Monday, November 25, 2013
OPTICAL FIBRE ROLL OUT....NEXT BIG OPPORTUNITY!!!!
BSNL, PowerGrid & RailTel to get Rs 2,700 crore for optic fibre rollout
By Kalyan Parbat, ET Bureau | 25 Nov, 2013, 04.07AM IST
KOLKATA: The telecom department will shortly move a Cabinet note for payout of Rs 2,700 crore as administrative charges to Bharat Sanchar Nigam, PowerGrid and RailTel, who have been mandated to handle cable laying and trenching responsibilites of the national broadband venture in the 70:15:15 ratio.
Cable laying and trenching is the most expensive piece of the communications ministry's ambitious Rs 21,000-crore national broadband rollout, popularly known as the national optic fibre ne ..
Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/26334459.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Sunday, November 24, 2013
India emerges most attractive investment destination..!!!!
India emerges most attractive investment destination: Ernst & YoungPTI | New Delhi | Updated: Nov 24 2013, 14:57 ISTSUMMARYIndia as most attractive investment destination followed by Brazil and China.With relaxation in FDI norms to boost investor sentiments, India has emerged as the most attractive investment destination surpassing neighbouring China and the US, says a report.The global survey of leading consultancy firm EY has ranked India as the most attractive investment destination followed by Brazil and China at second and third positions, respectively.While Canada has cornered fourth spot, the US is placed at fifth position. Other nations in the top ten are South Africa (6), Vietnam (7), Myanmar (8), Mexico (9) and Indonesia (10)."With sharp currency depreciation and opening up of FDI in various sectors, India has become an attractive destination for foreign investors," EY, earlier known as Ernst & Young, said.In August, the government announced relaxation in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) norms in many sectors, including multi-brand retail and telecom.According to the global consultancy firm, due to the present macro-economic pressures and heavy debt pile, several Indian companies are looking to divest non-core businesses."This has created a large opportunity for foreign players vying for a greater role in the Indian market," it added.When it comes to investments, the US, France and Japan have emerged as "top three investors likely to invest in India".The findings are a part of EY's latest Capital Confidence Barometer report, based on a survey of about 1,600 senior executives from large companies across 70 countries. It aims to gauge corporate confidence in the economic outlook and understand boardroom priorities, among others.With respect to India, sectors with the highest level of anticipated deal-making include automotive, technology, life sciences and consumer products.About 38 per cent of the respondents felt that M&A volumes in India are expected to improve over the next 12 months."Indian companies also reflect a concerted focus on job creation as well as optimising operations to deliver cost reduction," the report said.Amit Khandelwal, who is National Leader & Partner (Transaction Advisory Services) at EY, said the investor outlook for India remains positive, despite the challenges the country's economy has faced in the recent past.On the other hand, the report said that Indian corporate entities have started looking at developed markets for making acquisitions."After two years, European countries (UK and Germany) have made a comeback on the potential investment destinations list for Indian companies," it added.
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/india-emerges-most-attractive-investment-destination-ernst-amp-young/1198981/2
Saturday, November 23, 2013
SEBI...SUPREME COURT...Sahara story..Rs 20,000 crore!!!!.
But where are the investors?
The Sahara story is much more than one about a company engaged in para-banking activity and violating capital market regulations.
More than a year has passed since the Supreme Court ordered two Sahara Group companies to return to SEBI over Rs 24,000 crore raised through optionally fully convertible debentures (OFCD). The money, to be deposited within three months of the court order on August 31, 2012, was to be refunded to nearly 3 crore investors who had ostensibly subscribed to the OFCDs. The role of the capital markets regulator was to refund investors after ascertaining their genuineness. The deadline is long over and Sahara has coughed up only Rs 5,120 crore so far, even while claiming that most investors had already been refunded.
This and Sahara’s continuing obfuscatory tactics are nothing but an open defiance of the apex court. But the twists and turns in this seemingly interminable courtroom saga raises an obvious question — is this case fundamentally one about investor grievances? Irrespective of what SEBI claims and what the Supreme Court seems to believe, the answer is no. There are good reasons to think there were never 3 crore Sahara investors in the first place. Though SEBI’s website carries a running ticker inviting investors to seek refund, there have been claims from a very small number of subscribers, for sums running into a few lakhs. The fact is that the bulk of the investors simply haven’t come forward; they are phantoms, untraceable despite the magnitude of the scam.
It raises a further question. If these are fictitious investors, who were a part of an elaborate money-laundering scheme, then, is SEBI — which is mandated to protect investors — the right organisation to be fighting this case? Should we be surprised that despite openly seeking out complainants, SEBI has made precious little headway? Wouldn’t it have been far better if the case was treated as a money-laundering one and left from the very beginning to the Enforcement Directorate? The ED, which has recently registered two cases on the issue, will investigate, among other things, whether the missing money has been transferred out of the country and whether a large number of the investors were phantoms — in effect, conduct the kind of probe that SEBI isn’t capable of.
It is time the Sahara case is not treated as principally one in which a company engaged in shadowy para-banking activity and thereby violated capital market regulations.
The Supreme Court has put pressure on the group by preventing the sale of any of its properties and demanding that it submit original title deeds of land worth Rs 20,000 crore to SEBI. But the full truth of the Sahara story — the one about phantom investors and missing sums of money — is likely to be uncovered only by cases registered under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA).
(This article was published on November 22, 2013)
Nifty is headed towards 5,780-5,800...!!!
Nov 22, 2013, 06.08 PM IST Technicals:
Nifty will slide unless it can break past 6210
A look at the short-term price chart indicates that the Nifty is tracing out a bearish sequence of lower highs and lower lows. B Krishnakumar, fundsindia.com More about the Expert...Source: Moneycontrol.com
The Nifty has been struggling to get past its life-time high at 6,358. A look at the short-term price chart indicates that the Nifty is tracing out a bearish sequence of lower highs and lower lows. From the 15-minute chart featured below, it is evident that the index is moving within the confines of the blue set of lines. For 15-minutes chart, Click here The middle blue line is the key reference point and the trend remains bearish until the price moves past this centerline. The real level to contend with is the red balance line at 6,210.
As long as the Nifty trades below this red line at 6,210, the path of least resistance would be on the way down. As highlighted in the daily chart of the Nifty featured below, the open gap at 5,780-5,800 is the next destination. For daily chart, Click here A break below the recent low of 5,972 would indicate that the Nifty is headed towards this target at 5,780-5,800. Until there is a breakout above 6,210, there would be a strong case for a slide to 5,800.
Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-cues/technicals-nifty-will-slide-unless-it-can-break-past-6210_995255.html?utm_source=ref_article
Friday, November 22, 2013
Cairn India to consider share buy-back next week....!!!!
Cairn India to consider share buy-back next week, move to help Vedanta Group
Reuters | New Delhi | Updated: Nov 22 2013, 13:50 ISTSUMMARYSteel billionaire Anil Agarwal-led Vedanta Group holds 58.76 per cent stake in Cairn India.Cairn India Ltd board will on Tuesday consider a proposal to buy back shares, a move which will help promoters Vedanta Group increase its stake in the company without putting any money.
Cairn, which is sitting on a cash pile of about USD 3 billion, in a filing to the stock exchanges said "a meeting of the Board of Directors of the company will be held on November 26, 2013, to consider the proposal for buy back of equity shares of the company."
Share buy back is the process where a company repurchases outstanding shares in order to reduce the number of shares on the market.Companies, as a rule, buy back shares either to increase the value of shares still available (reducing supply), or to eliminate any threats by shareholders who may be looking for a controlling stake.
As per SEBI rules, Cairn will buy a pre-decided quantity of shares from the market at a rate which is likely to be higher than current trading price. Such shares will be held as treasury stock and eventually extinguished.This will lead to its promoter Vedanta Group's stake in the company going up without putting any money.Steel billionaire Anil Agarwal-led Vedanta Group holds 58.76 per cent stake in Cairn India.
UK's Cairn Energy plc, which had sold majority stake in Cairn India to Vedanta Group, still holds 10.27 per cent shares and may look at the share buy back programme to exit.Vedanta Group had bought stake in Cairn India at Rs 355 per share, a price the company stock has not touched in last one year.
"Cairn Energy is a known seller for long time and the share buy back may present it with an opportunity to exit from Cairn India," an analyst said.While share buy back is considered an efficient means of returning capital to shareholders, it also indicates that the company is not looking at doing major acquisitions or has significant capex plans that may need its current cashpile. Analysts said Vedanta holds 112.27 crore shares out of a total of 191.05 crore outstanding shares of Cairn India.
Cairn UK Holdings Ltd has 19.61 crore shares while Life Insurance Corp (LIC) has 16.77 crore (8.78 per cent) shares.ICICI Prudential hold 1.08 per cent shares while foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have 15.14 per cent holding. Financial institutions and Bank have 8.7 per cent.
Analysts said in case Cairn India buys 10 per cent of 19.10 crore shares in the buy back programme and extinguishes them, the total outstanding shares will come down to 171.945 crore. The reduced outstanding shares would mean that Vedanta Group's stake would rise to about 65.3 per cent without it buying any new shares.
Cairn, which produces over 1,75,000 barrels per day of oil or a quarter of India's crude oil production, was up Rs 9.45 (2.98 per cent) at Rs 326.70 at 1300 hours on the BSE.
NIFTY LIKELY TO TOUCH 5800....!!!
Tweets
- Markets struggling to distribute the weak stocks as the retail buyer interest has not emerged,buy NIFTY at 5950-80,RIL touches 828-32 range
- INDIAN MARKETS ARE OVERHEATED AT LEAST IN LARGE CAP AREA. BE PATIENT TO CATCH THE STORY AT 5850-20 LEVELS.BUY ON DIPS IS STILL A GOOD STORY.
- BE CAUTIOUS AT THE HIGHS, SECTOR ROTATION HAPPEN FROM"IT TO METALS" AND POWER SECTOR,TELE-INFRA, RIL,ESCORTS,RELCAP RELINFRA DO WELL,ENJOY!!
- Nifty added 120 points on a No New good News. The FUTURE VIEW is all that matters whether market participants Carry OPTIMISM or PESSIMISM.
- NIFTY IS CONSOLIDATING, WAITING FOR RBI POLICY AND WILL GO DOWN BUT GETS SUPPORT AT 5800 LEVEL.THE BEST BUY THEN WOULD BE JSWSTEEL AND WIPRO
Surabhi Roy | Mumbai
November 22, 2013 Last Updated at 14:50 IST
'Nifty can test 5,880 levels in coming days'
Check out the trading strategies for Nifty, CNX IT, rate-sensitive segments with Mudit Goyal, technical analyst, SMC GlobalCheck out the trading strategies for Nifty, CNX IT, rate-sensitive segmentswith Mudit Goyal, technical analyst, SMC Global.
SmartInvestor: The markets have nudged higher today after witnessing a sharp downslide for the last two trading sessions. Do you see the trend continuing or should one use the upside to exit? What are the important levels one should keep a tab on?
Mudit Goyal: As per the charts, markets found difficulty to breach the level of 6210 levels which was the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of recent downside from 6340 to 5970 levels. It corrected sharply and entered in its earlier support zone of 5980-6070 levels.
Mudit Goyal: Breakout of 6070 can attract some buying upto 6180 levels and on the downside, Nifty can test the level of 5880 in coming days. Yes, one should use the upside for reducing their positions.
SmartInvestor: What are your top three BUY recommendations from the Nifty pack?
http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/nifty-can-test-5-880-levels-in-coming-days-113112200602_1.html
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