EXPECT THE FALL...NATURALLY...!!!!

Next big stock market down leg may be underway

Price Action & Setup Analysis

By Rod David

March 13, 2014 • Reprints

If last Friday’s high isn’t going to demand a retest… then the next big downleg may be underway already. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm. No lower close might not be enough.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)

Like Tuesday’s gap up, extending Thursday’s gap up to retest last Friday’s highs would have been vulnerable to reversing down sharply intraday. Like Tuesday’s gap up, Thursday’s gap up failed. While Tuesday did eventually trend down intraday, Thursday morning’s steep, deep reversal traced out the pattern that would have been expected from retesting last Friday’s high.

Which raises the question: Was Friday’s 1880.50 pre-open high retested already by proxy? Since it was produce by trending before the open, it is a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires retest intraday.

There are a couple of not-great possibilities for having satisfied the attraction. And there are a couple of compelling reasons to suspect the attraction has been neutralized, regardless. The mirror image behavior is one reason — immediately reversing the gap up back into negative territory.

The other reason is that neutralizing the new Globex trend extreme was expected to satisfy all available buying pressure. Closing any higher would have suggested otherwise, putting into play 1901.00. The alternative need not form a durable top, but most of the alternatives do. And the steep, deep reaction down to 1834.50 trended down through relevant window to entrench sellers.

What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)

Thursday’s 3:10-3:20 timing window trended down to new lows at 1834.50, all but ensuring at least its retest, at least overnight. Or its intraday break by gargantuan margins. Regardless, reversing up any earlier might be premature, and likelier to fail. But this being a Friday, the morning’s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour.

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.

About the Author

Rod David

Rod David develops analytical techniques that are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He primarily analyzes S&Ps, generating several round-turn candidates daily. Rod publishes "Trading Plan" and more each session at the blog http://IfThenSignals.com.

http://www.futuresmag.com/2014/03/13/next-big-stock-market-down-leg-may-be-underway

............I CARRIED SIMILAR VIEW ABOUT INDIAN STOCK MARKETS..I TWEETED THE VIEW IN MY @BNRSTOCKS......................

MARKET ECONOMY: MANIPULATE & KILL COMPETITION ---HSBC,CITI, Deutsche BANK Sued.....

US FDIC sues major banks over Libor manipulation

PTI
NEW YORK, MARCH 15:  

The US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has sued HSBC, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and 12 other global banking heavyweights for manipulation of the Libor benchmark interest rate.

The regulator said the manipulation caused “substantial losses” to 38 US banks which were shut down due to insolvency during and after the 2008 financial crisis.

The FDIC said the accused institutions cheated the closed banks in US dollar Libor-based swap and other agreements through the manipulation of the rate between 2007 and 2011.

Libor, or the London Interbank Offered Rate, is used as a reference for some USD 350 trillion worth of financial contracts worldwide, from corporate loans to financial swap contracts.

“The Panel Bank Defendants fraudulently and collusively suppressed USD Libor, and they did so to their advantage,” the suit said.

The banks named are, or were, participants in setting the daily Libor rate: Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase of the United States, Germany’s Deutsche Bank and WestLB, Britain’s HSBC, Barclays and Lloyds banks, Japan’s Norinchukin Bank and Bank of Tokyo—Mitsubishi, Credit Suisse and UBS of Switzerland, Royal Bank of Scotland, Royal Bank of Canada, and Rabobank of the Netherlands.

Several of the banks have already paid substantial fines to regulators and justice authorities in the United States and Europe for participating in rate-fixing. Also sued was the British Bankers’ Association, which at the time oversaw the daily fixing of Libor by the banks.

“BBA participated in the alleged scheme to protect the revenue stream it generated from selling Libor licenses and to appease the Panel Bank Defendants that were members of the BBA,” it said.

The FDIC said it was seeking full damages for losses incurred by the closed banks, punitive damages, and damages for violating US antitrust statutes.

(This article was published on March 15, 2014)

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/international/us-fdic-sues-

major-banks-over-libor-manipulation/article5787653.ece

SENSEX @ ALL TIME HIGHs & MARKET CAPITALIZATION.....!!

As a matter f fact Sensex crossed the previous highs with out support from RIL and other Banking majors. The IT pack like TCS, INFY and ITC, LT, HUL, HDFC, ONGC, T-Motors along with decent run-up from SunPharma could manage to cross the previous limits.

As a matter of fact, the PSU banks are at rock bottom prices and there is no signs relief to the agony of the LONGTERM holders. The growth of Indian economy has taken decent up-turn as the exports are increasing and controlled imports helping us to lower the CAD with in limits cheering the markets but the credict may not translate into VOTES.

Anyway, the BULL run has more strength to display in future can add wealth to INVESTORS...For now enjoy the fruits..... 

http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/indexcomp.php?optex=BSE&opttopic=indexcomp&index=4

THE MARKET CAPITALIZATION...

Company Name	Industry	Last Price	Change	%Chg	Mkt Cap (Rs cr)	Weight
Axis Bank	Banks - Private Sector	1,328.30	21.55	1.65	62,353.21	1.75
Bajaj Auto	Auto - 2 & 3 Wheelers	1,957.10	38.05	1.98	56,632.02	1.59
Bharti Airtel	Telecommunications - Service	285.80	3.00	1.06	114,245.69	3.20
BHEL	Infrastructure - General	172.80	6.30	3.78	42,294.53	1.18
Cipla	Pharmaceuticals	379.95	-5.30	-1.38	30,507.00	0.85
Coal India	Mining/Minerals	256.90	5.40	2.15	162,267.40	4.55
Dr Reddys Labs	Pharmaceuticals	2,827.90	40.30	1.45	48,105.09	1.35
GAIL	Oil Drilling And Exploration	383.75	8.70	2.32	48,677.82	1.36
HDFC	Finance - Housing	837.20	10.35	1.25	130,570.35	3.66
HDFC Bank	Banks - Private Sector	675.50	6.40	0.96	161,939.47	4.54
Hero Motocorp	Auto - 2 & 3 Wheelers	2,011.70	39.95	2.03	40,171.13	1.13
Hindalco	Aluminium	120.40	5.00	4.33	24,857.58	0.70
HUL	Personal Care	549.85	-1.60	-0.29	118,912.82	3.33
ICICI Bank	Banks - Private Sector	1,133.65	36.50	3.33	130,919.99	3.67
Infosys	Computers - Software	3,835.70	20.40	0.53	220,259.77	6.17
ITC	Cigarettes	334.70	1.80	0.54	265,899.56	7.45
Larsen	Infrastructure - General	1,142.00	18.70	1.66	105,810.87	2.96
M&M	Auto - Cars & Jeeps	955.05	6.85	0.72	58,820.80	1.65
Maruti Suzuki	Auto - Cars & Jeeps	1,649.90	27.50	1.70	49,840.19	1.40
NTPC	Power - Generation/Distribution	116.70	2.70	2.37	96,224.57	2.70
ONGC	Oil Drilling And Exploration	309.00	8.75	2.91	264,364.64	7.41
Reliance	Refineries	822.00	15.10	1.87	265,662.33	7.44
SBI	Banks - Public Sector	1,576.20	2.70	0.17	117,674.85	3.30
Sesa Sterlite	Mining/Minerals	186.10	4.05	2.22	55,172.59	1.55
Sun Pharma	Pharmaceuticals	621.00	-1.25	-0.20	128,619.28	3.60
Tata Motors	Auto - LCVs/HCVs	407.95	-1.85	-0.45	131,305.45	3.68
Tata Power	Power - Generation/Distribution	78.50	1.05	1.36	18,628.62	0.52
Tata Steel	Steel - Large	364.20	8.45	2.38	35,371.66	0.99
TCS	Computers - Software	2,241.15	-9.00	-0.40	438,980.32	12.30
Wipro	Computers - Software	584.55	-5.05	-0.86	144,146.33	4.04