The markets are struggling to face the new challenges at higher levels but are determined to fight against the present situation. There was no specific change in the economic/political situation but a favour came from “cooling of crude”, gave some bottom support to market.
The tech results are not very enthusiastic to take the Nifty levels to higher levels from these levels be it with Infy, TCS. The telecom stocks with lead from Bharti are going to scale high. After the 60 points positive start it went back to 70 points negative but recovered well with support from ONGC, Bharti, Ranbaxy, HUL, capital goods & power sectors.
The Bearish out look will remain at least for two quarters for sure. The crude has to trade below 120 dollars and the resultant ease of inflation will give positive signals to RBI to relax the money tightening policies. The cumulative effect can be seen in the indices with confidence in the investor community, then the Nifty will trade above 4500 level and the foreign money will chase our stocks. Till these things happen without much deviation, the markets will be in trading range.
Anyway we have to live with the numbers, the Nifty has some support at least for the time being at 3800 level till the trust vote. The temporary support shall push the Nifty above 3879 level in the morning trade and shall cross above 3940 level to see Bulls build confidence for time being.
The traders might have observed the fall in RIL below 2020 level and RPL below 163, once their support levels (suggested) were breached.
The Stock Specific Action, Visit: http://www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com/
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Only down….down/low grades….
India is now passing through a rough phase with low grade, lower grade marks for investments as “Fitch down grades India”. The down grades from Moody’s and Standard & Poor will come out with their reports soon.
The gloomy picture of today was not visualized in Jan-08.The crude was at $120 per barrel and every body expected that it will touch $150 per barrel but the markets across the world were in jubilant mood with bullish out look. Now there was nothing left to write on the emerging India’s growth story or the opportunities available. Now the issue is how fast we recover from the pessimistic views to positive view?.
The markets sold off today and could not recover from their lows. The Nifty supports are eroded with the flood like supply of selling orders. Now the Nifty lost it’s significance of bottom supports and the present situation throws a new challenge to cross the hurdles on the up side. The fist hurdle to cross is at 4040 level and should cross the second hurdle at 4280 level then there is some thing left to think on the Bulls side.
The Reliance to cross the resistance at 2140 and later it has to cross the second resistance at 2260 level to confirm the ease of the Bear pressure in this counter.
The banking sector heavy weight like ICICI has to cross the resistance of 645-50 level and the SBI has to trade above 1390 level. After persistence efforts at the front line stocks can throw light that some of the positive efforts of Bulls are yielding results. The earlier posts were discussed about the other heavy weights of Nifty that can influence.
The gloomy picture of today was not visualized in Jan-08.The crude was at $120 per barrel and every body expected that it will touch $150 per barrel but the markets across the world were in jubilant mood with bullish out look. Now there was nothing left to write on the emerging India’s growth story or the opportunities available. Now the issue is how fast we recover from the pessimistic views to positive view?.
The markets sold off today and could not recover from their lows. The Nifty supports are eroded with the flood like supply of selling orders. Now the Nifty lost it’s significance of bottom supports and the present situation throws a new challenge to cross the hurdles on the up side. The fist hurdle to cross is at 4040 level and should cross the second hurdle at 4280 level then there is some thing left to think on the Bulls side.
The Reliance to cross the resistance at 2140 and later it has to cross the second resistance at 2260 level to confirm the ease of the Bear pressure in this counter.
The banking sector heavy weight like ICICI has to cross the resistance of 645-50 level and the SBI has to trade above 1390 level. After persistence efforts at the front line stocks can throw light that some of the positive efforts of Bulls are yielding results. The earlier posts were discussed about the other heavy weights of Nifty that can influence.
The Asian meltdown…..
The Asian markets are reeling under pressure from the financial troubles facing by the US mortgage companies and the escalating tensions around Iran and the Israel. The US big brother control over the resources and geographies are the real causes for the commodity prices upward move but unfortunately in the uni-polar world there is country dare to question/check the US high handness.
The tensions across the global equity markets spreading fear in the emerging markets investments there by drifting lower and lower.
The Nifty is having reasonable first at support at 3961-63 level and the 3900 shall hold till the trust vote is over. The Infy shall find buying support at lower level as the correction is very steep. It was deep down at 1310 level in second week of March gone up to 2000 level in June came down to 1550 level. So it will save Nifty and the price can go from 1500 to 1680-1720 level in near future.
The telecom stocks will rise as the 3G auction is all set to take place in a month or two and Bharti is good for del. above 750 level, but for today it is very likely that it will be available at 703-06 or even below that support level. The RCOM will rally from this level to 580 level once the reverse merger with MTN takes place.
The RPL can drift to lower in case it trades below 163 level and the reality and infra likely to see lower levels. The metals especially ferrous will find selling pressure for today, Sail is weak below 139 and Tata steel below 686-89 level.
The tensions across the global equity markets spreading fear in the emerging markets investments there by drifting lower and lower.
The Nifty is having reasonable first at support at 3961-63 level and the 3900 shall hold till the trust vote is over. The Infy shall find buying support at lower level as the correction is very steep. It was deep down at 1310 level in second week of March gone up to 2000 level in June came down to 1550 level. So it will save Nifty and the price can go from 1500 to 1680-1720 level in near future.
The telecom stocks will rise as the 3G auction is all set to take place in a month or two and Bharti is good for del. above 750 level, but for today it is very likely that it will be available at 703-06 or even below that support level. The RCOM will rally from this level to 580 level once the reverse merger with MTN takes place.
The RPL can drift to lower in case it trades below 163 level and the reality and infra likely to see lower levels. The metals especially ferrous will find selling pressure for today, Sail is weak below 139 and Tata steel below 686-89 level.
Monday, July 14, 2008
The fall is faster…..
The traders might have observed that the fall is much faster than the snail pace rise. The markets likely to witness the same kind of volatility till the HNI’s-deep pocked investors grab the early opportunity. The markets will fall but not more than 10% and create havoc in the minds of retail investor and pain in the heart.
The Nifty will not fall to 3200-300 levels as it fell from 5200 to this level. In case a sharp sell off from any సైడ్, market depth was shallow and it cannot take any out-right throw away sell-off.
The Nifty showed the required bull support to cross the 4093 level as posted in the morning but could not hold above 4073 level to give peace to the Bulls.
The Reliance (posted in the morning-The Reliance closed below 2020 level but for today it shall trade below 1990 so that the bears can make their day happy at this counter.) made a low of 1990 took support for this day abated the bears to make merry at the counter. The metals made a good come back across all counters and showed their strength. The RCOM failed to trade above 441-43 convincingly drifted to 435-36 level and Bharti didn’t hold the promise above 747. A surprise at the banking sector to many is that the Axis bank failed to cheer the street in spite of its robust quarterly numbers. The Ranbaxy sell off helps the Daiichi to buy the company with out raising the open offer.
The Nifty will not fall to 3200-300 levels as it fell from 5200 to this level. In case a sharp sell off from any సైడ్, market depth was shallow and it cannot take any out-right throw away sell-off.
The Nifty showed the required bull support to cross the 4093 level as posted in the morning but could not hold above 4073 level to give peace to the Bulls.
The Reliance (posted in the morning-The Reliance closed below 2020 level but for today it shall trade below 1990 so that the bears can make their day happy at this counter.) made a low of 1990 took support for this day abated the bears to make merry at the counter. The metals made a good come back across all counters and showed their strength. The RCOM failed to trade above 441-43 convincingly drifted to 435-36 level and Bharti didn’t hold the promise above 747. A surprise at the banking sector to many is that the Axis bank failed to cheer the street in spite of its robust quarterly numbers. The Ranbaxy sell off helps the Daiichi to buy the company with out raising the open offer.
Can we be in green….
The markets sold off due to the poor IIP numbers and the rising inflation numbers. The market closed temporarily at the support level at 4049 is a good sign. The two days made lots of changes in the political equations. The Congress thought that it could easily convince the smaller parties but Karat took it to his heart to tumble the Govt. and in the process a head of the ruling party. This could through a negative signal to the recovering markets.
The Nifty shall trade above 4073 and shall cross the resistance at 4093 level taking positive cues from the Asian markets. In case it fails to do so and trades below the 3990 level then it may touch 3900 level where it can has some support.
The Reliance closed below 2020 level but for today it shall trade below 1990 so that the bears can make their day happy at this counter. The RPL is strong above 169-170 level and weak below 163 level. The Infras may see further buying support at lower levels. The DLF is good above 449-51 weak below 446. The JP Associates was sold off could recover to day if it could trade above 165 but it is very unlikely. The Unitech is in a better place, good above 170 and weak below 165. The GMR Infra is good above 91 and weak below 89 level.
The RCOM showed resilience and the low is well above 421-23 support level. It is likely to advance further if it trades above 439-41 level. The Bharti crossed the first hurdle at 747 and the second at 757 level. So it is good for delivery in case the markets recover and trade above 751.
The USFDA case against Ranbaxy could dampen the share rise. The scrip trades below 531 then short sellers enjoy with a stop-loss of 541 from where it will be in Bull grip.
The markets will be volatile as both parties Bulls and Bears determined to win over the other. The Nifty is good for long only when it trades above 4145 level.
The Nifty shall trade above 4073 and shall cross the resistance at 4093 level taking positive cues from the Asian markets. In case it fails to do so and trades below the 3990 level then it may touch 3900 level where it can has some support.
The Reliance closed below 2020 level but for today it shall trade below 1990 so that the bears can make their day happy at this counter. The RPL is strong above 169-170 level and weak below 163 level. The Infras may see further buying support at lower levels. The DLF is good above 449-51 weak below 446. The JP Associates was sold off could recover to day if it could trade above 165 but it is very unlikely. The Unitech is in a better place, good above 170 and weak below 165. The GMR Infra is good above 91 and weak below 89 level.
The RCOM showed resilience and the low is well above 421-23 support level. It is likely to advance further if it trades above 439-41 level. The Bharti crossed the first hurdle at 747 and the second at 757 level. So it is good for delivery in case the markets recover and trade above 751.
The USFDA case against Ranbaxy could dampen the share rise. The scrip trades below 531 then short sellers enjoy with a stop-loss of 541 from where it will be in Bull grip.
The markets will be volatile as both parties Bulls and Bears determined to win over the other. The Nifty is good for long only when it trades above 4145 level.
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Numbers in profits…….
The markets are in full bear grip as they slipped from the 5185 level the very crucial support now has become a distance dream to reach. The fundamental analysts hope that the markets get life from the numbers declared by the companies and the profits in particular. The technical analysts also munching the numbers at which the company has support and resistances. So now the season is immersed in numbers.
The Business Line- Sunday, July 13, 2008, on the front page printed “Institutional investors buy ‘out-of-favour’ sectors in July”. The text covered as “What are institutional investors buying, with the Sensex hovering at 13k levels?. Mid-cap stocks in out-of favour sectors such as realestate, infrastructure, automobile, media and banking apper to have come back into the “buy” list of leading FIIs in July……”
Let the under-performing ( POSTED on Dt 30-06-2008)…..One of the clear signs of trend reversal in a bull market, the outperforming stock of yesterdays starts the signs of under-performance as the days goes by. The Index continues to surge in the same direction but the darlings take a nap. The same is the case with the falling market. There are some stocks those fall very steep than a retail investor could identify/imagine. The outright sell off will be seen with steep falls, as the days pass by every body could recognize that what was happened?. So the Deep-pockets garner the best opportunity to sell. In this bleak scenario there could be silver ling to identify the trend reversal. A clear observation can through the opportunity open to the retailers also. The trend reversal can be identified once the weakest sector finds buying interest in the market by the smart people that could be the secret why these weak stocks won’t fall however deep the market falls.
To validate the above observation it is necessary that the underperforming sectors in the market at this point in time are Real estate and Capital goods. So it is very important to see DLF trades above 496-503 level, Unitech shall trade above 210-214 level and the India Bulls Real estate above 395-400 level. The capital goods sector though has some silver lining with orders at disposal but the heat of raw material costs eating into the profits, thus evaporations of current prices to settle with lower P/E valuations. This sector has huge potential to outperform in future but the U-turn possible only when the price of L&T trades above 2750-2800 level, the BHEL shall trade above 1550-1585 and the ABB shall trade above 1020-36 level.
The Business Line- Sunday, July 13, 2008, on the front page printed “Institutional investors buy ‘out-of-favour’ sectors in July”. The text covered as “What are institutional investors buying, with the Sensex hovering at 13k levels?. Mid-cap stocks in out-of favour sectors such as realestate, infrastructure, automobile, media and banking apper to have come back into the “buy” list of leading FIIs in July……”
Let the under-performing ( POSTED on Dt 30-06-2008)…..One of the clear signs of trend reversal in a bull market, the outperforming stock of yesterdays starts the signs of under-performance as the days goes by. The Index continues to surge in the same direction but the darlings take a nap. The same is the case with the falling market. There are some stocks those fall very steep than a retail investor could identify/imagine. The outright sell off will be seen with steep falls, as the days pass by every body could recognize that what was happened?. So the Deep-pockets garner the best opportunity to sell. In this bleak scenario there could be silver ling to identify the trend reversal. A clear observation can through the opportunity open to the retailers also. The trend reversal can be identified once the weakest sector finds buying interest in the market by the smart people that could be the secret why these weak stocks won’t fall however deep the market falls.
To validate the above observation it is necessary that the underperforming sectors in the market at this point in time are Real estate and Capital goods. So it is very important to see DLF trades above 496-503 level, Unitech shall trade above 210-214 level and the India Bulls Real estate above 395-400 level. The capital goods sector though has some silver lining with orders at disposal but the heat of raw material costs eating into the profits, thus evaporations of current prices to settle with lower P/E valuations. This sector has huge potential to outperform in future but the U-turn possible only when the price of L&T trades above 2750-2800 level, the BHEL shall trade above 1550-1585 and the ABB shall trade above 1020-36 level.
Friday, July 11, 2008
It came, went …dust was left….
The results of Infy are no surprise to many but the markets spooked the hopes of Bulls while falling relentlessly. The Nifty lost the bottom support at 4115-11 level and was parked at 4015 and closed at 4049 level with a consolation as this was the first positive close on weekly basis after a long time.
The IIP numbers surprised too many especially to the markets apart from the FM and RBI. The heads need to break their heads to manage the worsening situation forces them to take corrective measures in order to boost the economy and contain the inflation. The job at both hands made them to become busy to speak on economy.
The Infy results brought it to the April month end prices. It ruled two and half months above 1650 and a high at 2030. The results are good and the future out look is not conservative but the markets not enthused.
Yester day I wrote about the Forex losses that came from HCL-tech results and many more companies will publish in the forth coming results.
The Reliance closed below the 2020 level and the next level ….?
The IIP numbers surprised too many especially to the markets apart from the FM and RBI. The heads need to break their heads to manage the worsening situation forces them to take corrective measures in order to boost the economy and contain the inflation. The job at both hands made them to become busy to speak on economy.
The Infy results brought it to the April month end prices. It ruled two and half months above 1650 and a high at 2030. The results are good and the future out look is not conservative but the markets not enthused.
Yester day I wrote about the Forex losses that came from HCL-tech results and many more companies will publish in the forth coming results.
The Reliance closed below the 2020 level and the next level ….?
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Changes in the support levels?.
There are slight changes in the important heavy weights of Nifty which has first support at 4120 level and the second probably the temporary best at 4030 level.The Nifty shall trade above 4180 level to see futher 5% rise. The Infosys results are likely to change sentiment and the Nifty levels. The market always looks for special events and many a times it surprises many.
The Reliance is at the verge of its support at 2020 level and the RPL is struggling to cross the 174 hurdle. The Infosys is good so long it trades above1730 level, Wipro has good support above 435 and will become weak below 421. The TCS is one of the strong counters above 830 and Satyam above 456. The telecom counters are above their support levels but they are showing weakness due to selling pressure above the ruling current levels. The ONGC is struggling to cross the 892 hurdle but it will become weak only below 840.
The positives of yesterday and day before needs to get buying for SBI, REL Infra, NTPC, DLF, ABB and ICICI Bank. The ever escalating inflation figures, the global markets weakness and the challenges of the political parties are likely to dampen the euphoric strength shown by the Bulls.
Just observe I could be wrong: The S.P. support to Govt. strengthened Mr. Amar Sigh and he is (demanding) meeting the officials of different Ministries to dictate the policies of future, sorry I failed to present it correctly; to provide direction to future policies again sorry but the correct presentation is guidance/assistance to varies policy matters.
The Reliance is at the verge of its support at 2020 level and the RPL is struggling to cross the 174 hurdle. The Infosys is good so long it trades above1730 level, Wipro has good support above 435 and will become weak below 421. The TCS is one of the strong counters above 830 and Satyam above 456. The telecom counters are above their support levels but they are showing weakness due to selling pressure above the ruling current levels. The ONGC is struggling to cross the 892 hurdle but it will become weak only below 840.
The positives of yesterday and day before needs to get buying for SBI, REL Infra, NTPC, DLF, ABB and ICICI Bank. The ever escalating inflation figures, the global markets weakness and the challenges of the political parties are likely to dampen the euphoric strength shown by the Bulls.
Just observe I could be wrong: The S.P. support to Govt. strengthened Mr. Amar Sigh and he is (demanding) meeting the officials of different Ministries to dictate the policies of future, sorry I failed to present it correctly; to provide direction to future policies again sorry but the correct presentation is guidance/assistance to varies policy matters.
Waiting for Infosys results….?
The markets not only ours but the Asian markets shrug of the US cues as they are tired of accepting the negatives for the time being. Our markets traded as if they are waiting positive cues from the Tech giant Infosys. As such there was no gross violation in the levels suggested in the earlier postings.
The techs any way produce good results on the back of the depreciated rupee but the surprises will come from the monetary losses due to advance selling of dollars anticipating the rupee strengthening. The dollar-rupee management has become great job at hand to many dollar earning companies. They trade with anticipation of something and the reverse will happen as in the case of day traders do in the market. The result will be same to every one who trade continuously on any markets.
The smaller names are getting buying support in the market is a good sign that the markets are consolidating at the lower levels. This move will help the markets to move further by 10% from these levels. The metal sector got good support and the losers are the auto sector. The real estate pack will loose some market cap in the days to come but the capital goods sector will add value.
The techs any way produce good results on the back of the depreciated rupee but the surprises will come from the monetary losses due to advance selling of dollars anticipating the rupee strengthening. The dollar-rupee management has become great job at hand to many dollar earning companies. They trade with anticipation of something and the reverse will happen as in the case of day traders do in the market. The result will be same to every one who trade continuously on any markets.
The smaller names are getting buying support in the market is a good sign that the markets are consolidating at the lower levels. This move will help the markets to move further by 10% from these levels. The metal sector got good support and the losers are the auto sector. The real estate pack will loose some market cap in the days to come but the capital goods sector will add value.
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
Strong bullishness displayed………
The markets soared to new high after it crossed 4100 level as the retail short sellers are in queue to cover.
The lackluster move displayed by the techs showed their strength at the fag end of the trading session. The levels suggested yesterday are valid till they are breached.
To analyse the levels: NTPC is very good above 163, today low is 163. RelInfra is very good above 805 level and the traders might have observed how it rallied from 805 to 845. RCOM is good above 421 level and today low registered at 420. Bharti traded above 731 to reach 758. The Punjlloyd maintained above 230 level. The RIl did not trade below 2025 rallied to 2095 level and the RPL traded at 168-169. The indicators suggested shall not loose their bottom supports to see that markets keep going up wards.
There is a word of caution: A patient discharged from hospital can walk but shall never try jogging/running.
The lackluster move displayed by the techs showed their strength at the fag end of the trading session. The levels suggested yesterday are valid till they are breached.
To analyse the levels: NTPC is very good above 163, today low is 163. RelInfra is very good above 805 level and the traders might have observed how it rallied from 805 to 845. RCOM is good above 421 level and today low registered at 420. Bharti traded above 731 to reach 758. The Punjlloyd maintained above 230 level. The RIl did not trade below 2025 rallied to 2095 level and the RPL traded at 168-169. The indicators suggested shall not loose their bottom supports to see that markets keep going up wards.
There is a word of caution: A patient discharged from hospital can walk but shall never try jogging/running.
Tuesday, July 08, 2008
No Left only Right to N-deal….
The UPA govt. lost the support of Left to stay in power to sign the N-deal but manages to garner the like minded parties to corner the Left that the deal is inevitable in current scenario to meet the ever rising energy needs.
So the deal will be through and benefit lots of companies like LT, Punjlloyd, ABB, Areva T&D, Siemens, NTPC, RelInfra and many other smaller companies queuing to cut their share in the cake.
The best thing to the markets is that the uncertainties as odds to Bulls start diluting as the time pass by. The Nifty clearly took support at 3850 level. The banking sector is inviting the MTM loss from their overseas bonds/contracts due to the new guidelines proposed by the RBI and the Reliance weakness crippling the fast run up from these levels.
The frontline stocks likely to advance (for tomorrow & short-term indicators) as the RIL is good above 2025, very good to markets if it can cross 2140 level and shall not trade below 1930 level (last excuse). The RPL shall trade above 167-168 level and shall not trade below 160-161 level.
The RCOM has good support at 405-403 level and good above 421 level. Bharti shall cross and trade above 729-31 level and shall not fall below 706-03. The ONGC shall trade above 886 and shall not trade below 840 level. The NTPC is good above 156 and very good above 163. The Rel Infra is good above 756 and very good if it could trade above 805 level. The Punjlloyd is good above 230 and very good if could cross 246 level but the low shall not breach 204 level.
The tech pack suddenly lost their support and started correcting to adjust to Nifty levels with positive bias.
This may not sound good but the fact is that the bears will not allow the Nifty for a run-up rally with a single/two piece of good news. The smaller political leaders/parities will cry loudly to bring attention for a better bargain could make the Nifty swing widely. During this bold headlines time before seeking the vote of confidence the “deep pocketed” shorts will be covered peacefully. The rally cannot be expected at this point in time as the consolidation has also not happened after the steep sell of fall from 5300 level. So the Nifty may oscillate between 3900-4680 level for July and first half of Aug-08. During this period the crude likely to come around 112-118 dollars and the inflation may show its decline to South-wards.
So the deal will be through and benefit lots of companies like LT, Punjlloyd, ABB, Areva T&D, Siemens, NTPC, RelInfra and many other smaller companies queuing to cut their share in the cake.
The best thing to the markets is that the uncertainties as odds to Bulls start diluting as the time pass by. The Nifty clearly took support at 3850 level. The banking sector is inviting the MTM loss from their overseas bonds/contracts due to the new guidelines proposed by the RBI and the Reliance weakness crippling the fast run up from these levels.
The frontline stocks likely to advance (for tomorrow & short-term indicators) as the RIL is good above 2025, very good to markets if it can cross 2140 level and shall not trade below 1930 level (last excuse). The RPL shall trade above 167-168 level and shall not trade below 160-161 level.
The RCOM has good support at 405-403 level and good above 421 level. Bharti shall cross and trade above 729-31 level and shall not fall below 706-03. The ONGC shall trade above 886 and shall not trade below 840 level. The NTPC is good above 156 and very good above 163. The Rel Infra is good above 756 and very good if it could trade above 805 level. The Punjlloyd is good above 230 and very good if could cross 246 level but the low shall not breach 204 level.
The tech pack suddenly lost their support and started correcting to adjust to Nifty levels with positive bias.
This may not sound good but the fact is that the bears will not allow the Nifty for a run-up rally with a single/two piece of good news. The smaller political leaders/parities will cry loudly to bring attention for a better bargain could make the Nifty swing widely. During this bold headlines time before seeking the vote of confidence the “deep pocketed” shorts will be covered peacefully. The rally cannot be expected at this point in time as the consolidation has also not happened after the steep sell of fall from 5300 level. So the Nifty may oscillate between 3900-4680 level for July and first half of Aug-08. During this period the crude likely to come around 112-118 dollars and the inflation may show its decline to South-wards.
Monday, July 07, 2008
The pain balm move……
The markets world over are reeling under pressure from the crude weight and the follow-on inflation effects we are no eception but the fall from the heighs on profit booking is a big concern. As a matter of fact the effects of global melt down in equities carry forward to the demand and supply mismatch to commodities and the real estate. The correction in the crude will not give any rally to equities but provide cushion to a fresh free fall.
Now the July-Aug-2007 level is not sacrosanct to hold the Nifty above 4000 level but the looming uncertainties will take the Nifty below 3200 level once the 3800 level is breached. The levels suggested earlier for the Nifty while falling touched without any resistance from the Bulls. Now the markets are on hold from their free fall but the risk takers can try as the adjustments temporarily favour the Bulls.
The weakness in Reliance and the RPL are the major concern as the markets are struggling to accept any wind fall weight from these counters. The fall from highs are a negative signal at this time but the hope lies in the charts as the Nifty closed above 4020 level. In case the Reliance falls below 1950, RPL trades below 161 level then this minor positive sentiment will fade away.
Now the July-Aug-2007 level is not sacrosanct to hold the Nifty above 4000 level but the looming uncertainties will take the Nifty below 3200 level once the 3800 level is breached. The levels suggested earlier for the Nifty while falling touched without any resistance from the Bulls. Now the markets are on hold from their free fall but the risk takers can try as the adjustments temporarily favour the Bulls.
The weakness in Reliance and the RPL are the major concern as the markets are struggling to accept any wind fall weight from these counters. The fall from highs are a negative signal at this time but the hope lies in the charts as the Nifty closed above 4020 level. In case the Reliance falls below 1950, RPL trades below 161 level then this minor positive sentiment will fade away.
Sunday, July 06, 2008
The short term technicals…..
The markets likely to open with positive note as they were tired of negative news and Southward journey. But the up move will be with doubt about the future (now for the next day).
The pure technicals show that the Nifty could move above another 400 points so long it stays above 3945-35 level and Reliance stays above 2025 level. The up move will be sustained for only when the heavy weights shall cross their immediate resistance levels. The frontline counters like Bharati shall cross above 745, Reliance to cross above 2180, ONGC shall cross 900, Infosys shall cross 1800, the TCS shall cross 880, RPL shall cross 178, the UNITECH shall cross 183 and DLF shall cross 440 level.
The worry some factor is that Reliance and RPL counters were noting trading with the momentum as they always.
The pure technicals show that the Nifty could move above another 400 points so long it stays above 3945-35 level and Reliance stays above 2025 level. The up move will be sustained for only when the heavy weights shall cross their immediate resistance levels. The frontline counters like Bharati shall cross above 745, Reliance to cross above 2180, ONGC shall cross 900, Infosys shall cross 1800, the TCS shall cross 880, RPL shall cross 178, the UNITECH shall cross 183 and DLF shall cross 440 level.
The worry some factor is that Reliance and RPL counters were noting trading with the momentum as they always.
Saturday, July 05, 2008
The confusion creates…..
The markets took the much required support at the 3850 level and the efforts of bulls being respected in placing the Nifty above 4000 level.
The markets are at confusion about the future whether India can out perform at the Global competition as the environment was changed due to the high crude prices and inflation. To add fuel to the fire the local political situation is also very bad even though everybody is trying to pose a brave face while facing the camera.
Whether it is Dr Kalam or Dr Manmohan who recommends the N-deal but the changed economic compulsions forcing us to sign on the deal to safe guard the energy security to the nation. The markets live with short sighted policies, the political compulsions and competitiveness of the economy to excel in future. The perceived robust growth of economy is intact inspite of the above discussed problems.
The monsoon is so far good but the high input cost is becoming an expensive investment at the agriculture level. The farmers are no longer attached to the tag that they need to cultivate and produce food for the rest but they are equating as investment and return.
The first quarter (Mar-June) results and the industry views on the demand supply side at their level will decide the future course of direction of the Nifty.The RBI governs work became very tough to deal with the inflation as limited tools left at his disposal to dealt with the situation. The crude oil price fall can infuse strength to emerging economies like India. The situation will ease as things stand at this point in time. The other challenge is the Rain God’s blessings to India.
The external and the limited controllable situations are controlling the Nifty direction at this point in time. The time will ease things and the turmoil will melt down and the confusion dust will settle down by Sep-08 but the fog of parliament elections will again put speed breaks to the upward Journey of Nifty in 2008.
So all around existing confusion will lay down heavy burden on the shoulders of the Bulls even though the macro and micro economic conditions look bright for the long-term journey ahead.
The markets are at confusion about the future whether India can out perform at the Global competition as the environment was changed due to the high crude prices and inflation. To add fuel to the fire the local political situation is also very bad even though everybody is trying to pose a brave face while facing the camera.
Whether it is Dr Kalam or Dr Manmohan who recommends the N-deal but the changed economic compulsions forcing us to sign on the deal to safe guard the energy security to the nation. The markets live with short sighted policies, the political compulsions and competitiveness of the economy to excel in future. The perceived robust growth of economy is intact inspite of the above discussed problems.
The monsoon is so far good but the high input cost is becoming an expensive investment at the agriculture level. The farmers are no longer attached to the tag that they need to cultivate and produce food for the rest but they are equating as investment and return.
The first quarter (Mar-June) results and the industry views on the demand supply side at their level will decide the future course of direction of the Nifty.The RBI governs work became very tough to deal with the inflation as limited tools left at his disposal to dealt with the situation. The crude oil price fall can infuse strength to emerging economies like India. The situation will ease as things stand at this point in time. The other challenge is the Rain God’s blessings to India.
The external and the limited controllable situations are controlling the Nifty direction at this point in time. The time will ease things and the turmoil will melt down and the confusion dust will settle down by Sep-08 but the fog of parliament elections will again put speed breaks to the upward Journey of Nifty in 2008.
So all around existing confusion will lay down heavy burden on the shoulders of the Bulls even though the macro and micro economic conditions look bright for the long-term journey ahead.
Thursday, July 03, 2008
The early signs…….
The markets are taking the early signs of recovery from these levels. To substantiate the earlier posting, there was a jubilant recovery that occurred as if there was a bull grip over the markets.
Today the market lost all the gains that made yesterday. The silver lining of the days action is that the markets dug enough space to burry. As a matter of fact whose grave yard is this any way?. The markets may test the 3600 level but the bounce could become very sharp as it happened in yesterday’s move. The hope that can light the Bull Run torch could be from the support from the Nuclear deal.
The market stability will also depend on the 4020 level, and shall march above to 4230 level crossing the high of 4285 with in 3-4 trading sessions. Incase this won’t happen then we ca assume that the bottoms were washed till 3100 level. We like it or not the markets know the news better and that will be reflected in the price that is what ultimately represent in the technical analysis. The Reliance shall trade above 2080 level and shall cross the early resistance of 2285. The bottom support of RIL, ONGC, SBI, Infosys, wipro, Bharti, LT, BHEL and DLF shall not be challenged by more than 2 percent.
There is no reason to worry at this point in time as the markets are at cross roads. It could become a good opportunity buy rather than selling the holdings. The bounce will easily take the Nifty to 4560-4630 level. The temporary worst can be considered over when the Reliance Infra crosses 850 level, India Bulls Real-estate crosses 310 level, the LT crosses 2400 level, Bharti crosses 785 level.
Today the market lost all the gains that made yesterday. The silver lining of the days action is that the markets dug enough space to burry. As a matter of fact whose grave yard is this any way?. The markets may test the 3600 level but the bounce could become very sharp as it happened in yesterday’s move. The hope that can light the Bull Run torch could be from the support from the Nuclear deal.
The market stability will also depend on the 4020 level, and shall march above to 4230 level crossing the high of 4285 with in 3-4 trading sessions. Incase this won’t happen then we ca assume that the bottoms were washed till 3100 level. We like it or not the markets know the news better and that will be reflected in the price that is what ultimately represent in the technical analysis. The Reliance shall trade above 2080 level and shall cross the early resistance of 2285. The bottom support of RIL, ONGC, SBI, Infosys, wipro, Bharti, LT, BHEL and DLF shall not be challenged by more than 2 percent.
There is no reason to worry at this point in time as the markets are at cross roads. It could become a good opportunity buy rather than selling the holdings. The bounce will easily take the Nifty to 4560-4630 level. The temporary worst can be considered over when the Reliance Infra crosses 850 level, India Bulls Real-estate crosses 310 level, the LT crosses 2400 level, Bharti crosses 785 level.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Let the under-performing…..
One of the clear signs of trend reversal in a bull market happens when the outperforming stocks of yesterday start the signs of under-performance as the days goes by. The Index continues to surge in the same direction but the darlings take a nap. The same is the case with the falling market. There are some stocks those fall very steep surprises the retail investor and very little could understand. The outright sell off will be seen with steep falls, as the days pass by every body could recognize that what was happened?.The Deep-pockets garner the best opportunity to sell at higher levels and they also enjoy the early gains of up trend.
In this bleak scenario there could be silver ling to identify the trend reversal. The stock price always speaks the truth louder than the news. A clear observation can through the opportunity to the retailers also. The trend reversal can be identified once the weakest sector finds buying interest in the market by the smart people that could be the secret why these weak stocks won’t fall however deep the market falls.
To validate the above observation it is necessary that the underperforming sectors in the market at this point in time- Real estate and Capital goods shall start perform. So it is very important to see DLF trades above 496-503 level, Unitech shall trade above 210-214 level and the India Bulls Real estate above 395-400 level. The capital goods sector though has some silver lining with orders at disposal but the heat of raw material costs eating into the profits, thus evaporations of current prices to settle with lower P/E valuations. This sector has huge potential to outperform in future but the U-turn possible only when the price of L&T trades above 2750-2800 level, the BHEL shall trade above 1550-1585 and the ABB shall trade above 1020-36 level.
In this bleak scenario there could be silver ling to identify the trend reversal. The stock price always speaks the truth louder than the news. A clear observation can through the opportunity to the retailers also. The trend reversal can be identified once the weakest sector finds buying interest in the market by the smart people that could be the secret why these weak stocks won’t fall however deep the market falls.
To validate the above observation it is necessary that the underperforming sectors in the market at this point in time- Real estate and Capital goods shall start perform. So it is very important to see DLF trades above 496-503 level, Unitech shall trade above 210-214 level and the India Bulls Real estate above 395-400 level. The capital goods sector though has some silver lining with orders at disposal but the heat of raw material costs eating into the profits, thus evaporations of current prices to settle with lower P/E valuations. This sector has huge potential to outperform in future but the U-turn possible only when the price of L&T trades above 2750-2800 level, the BHEL shall trade above 1550-1585 and the ABB shall trade above 1020-36 level.
Sunday, June 29, 2008
crude CRUDE acting......
The Aug-2007 levels…..May-07 levels...the journey towards south starded in Jan-2008 could end in Sep-08.
The levels suggested earlier for the Nifty touched without any resistance from the bulls.
Now the markets are on a free fall. The risk takers right from the 5100 level, 4800 level and the worst hit at 4600 level were wiped out as the uncertainties are looming large.
The markets got support only when the trend reversal happens at the front line stocks. The best things can be seen only when Reliance crosses 2440 level, ICICI crosses 830 level, ONGC crosses 930 level, SBI crosses 1330 level, BHARTI crosses 860 level, RCOM crosses 610 level and the strongest scrip of these turbulent days- RPL crosses 205, then the core strength in the market will established and will be reflected in the NIFTY. The markets are moving northwards only to sail to southwards with vigour. The FII selling will be over as the stocks fall below their acquisition level. Please see the older posts in which I discussed the same.
To blow once own trumpet, I clearly suggested to invest in technology, Pharma and FMCG in my earlier posts as they could reward the investors in future. Those who invested in FMGC might have experienced the taste of down fall and the rest are still in huge profits.
Those who can venture for longterm can now start cherry picking in Telecoms and the equipment sector. The great old days of infrastructure are far from sight but the malls with cash and carry business is bright. The smaller Indian banks with insurance tag will get good support from FIIs and foreign banks. The best safe bet is always the technology now with a new name - KPO services.
The levels suggested earlier for the Nifty touched without any resistance from the bulls.
Now the markets are on a free fall. The risk takers right from the 5100 level, 4800 level and the worst hit at 4600 level were wiped out as the uncertainties are looming large.
The markets got support only when the trend reversal happens at the front line stocks. The best things can be seen only when Reliance crosses 2440 level, ICICI crosses 830 level, ONGC crosses 930 level, SBI crosses 1330 level, BHARTI crosses 860 level, RCOM crosses 610 level and the strongest scrip of these turbulent days- RPL crosses 205, then the core strength in the market will established and will be reflected in the NIFTY. The markets are moving northwards only to sail to southwards with vigour. The FII selling will be over as the stocks fall below their acquisition level. Please see the older posts in which I discussed the same.
To blow once own trumpet, I clearly suggested to invest in technology, Pharma and FMCG in my earlier posts as they could reward the investors in future. Those who invested in FMGC might have experienced the taste of down fall and the rest are still in huge profits.
Those who can venture for longterm can now start cherry picking in Telecoms and the equipment sector. The great old days of infrastructure are far from sight but the malls with cash and carry business is bright. The smaller Indian banks with insurance tag will get good support from FIIs and foreign banks. The best safe bet is always the technology now with a new name - KPO services.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
The consolidation is sure…
The markets are taking time to consolidate to take a breakout move. The markets across the globe lost more than 4% but were didn’t participate due to holiday. The markets take the Infosys cue and the yesterday meltdown. Incase the tech bellwether could project well for the next year with out fear due from the GE, then the markets likely to correct by 2% otherwise the markets may close below 4640. The markets shall not close below 4620 for more than two days can cause a severe damage to the Nifty.
As we expected RIL move the real saver of Nifty may not close below 2270 as the news flow is very positive. Incase the Nifty fails to trade above 4650 even the RIL trades above 2280 can be a temporary fall that can become a trap of bears. So the Nifty can move up so long RIL trades above 2120 and RPL trades above 153 then the bulls have some thing more to say in the short term.
As we expected RIL move the real saver of Nifty may not close below 2270 as the news flow is very positive. Incase the Nifty fails to trade above 4650 even the RIL trades above 2280 can be a temporary fall that can become a trap of bears. So the Nifty can move up so long RIL trades above 2120 and RPL trades above 153 then the bulls have some thing more to say in the short term.
Monday, April 14, 2008
IS THIS A CONSISTANT INCONSISTANCY?…
The markets are consistently surprising to the traders and confusing the investors with it's irregular movements. The days are gone for the buy today and sell tomorrow traders in the market( BTST) for next 12 months. The markets will take the run-up only when the retail investors lost their last hope of investing and should come forward to sell their blue-chip holdings in frustration.
So how long the small investor keep his faith for an early rebound?. Observe how the markets world over lost their value in just two months?. If one critically analyse the market operation how good things and favourable news flows continued for more than six months even after the first signs of SUB-PRIME news catching the headlines. But suddenly on a fine morningmarkets fell across the globe. The markets took a deep cut in its value and coundn't bounce back. The bullishness gone and the darkness of inflation due to price rise news started erupting from the volcano of commodities.
Now the suggestions from IMF, World bank and other research/statistical institutions are throwing open suggestions to the third world countries on & how to tackle the situation.
The crisis will be over once the deep pockets grab their chunk of blue-chip stocks across the globe, then the good news will be aired on how strong the economies of emerging countries and their importance in building the new society.
This is all in the game to WIN and enjoy the POWER to dictate the terms.
So how long the small investor keep his faith for an early rebound?. Observe how the markets world over lost their value in just two months?. If one critically analyse the market operation how good things and favourable news flows continued for more than six months even after the first signs of SUB-PRIME news catching the headlines. But suddenly on a fine morningmarkets fell across the globe. The markets took a deep cut in its value and coundn't bounce back. The bullishness gone and the darkness of inflation due to price rise news started erupting from the volcano of commodities.
Now the suggestions from IMF, World bank and other research/statistical institutions are throwing open suggestions to the third world countries on & how to tackle the situation.
The crisis will be over once the deep pockets grab their chunk of blue-chip stocks across the globe, then the good news will be aired on how strong the economies of emerging countries and their importance in building the new society.
This is all in the game to WIN and enjoy the POWER to dictate the terms.
Sunday, April 06, 2008
Infotech to Infratech…..
The strong bottom is necessary for an assured up move that can stay for a longer period of time which can start with a good note at any time has been extended due to inflation worries. The external pressures are intact to put a cap on the speedy upward movement of Nifty. The bottom building is enough incase Infy, Wipro and TCS doesn’t loose much on forex hedging. The greater cause of concern which was confined to books for time being is going to be disclosed with in few weeks.
The Nifty is oscillating between 4550 to 5000 levels- a 10% move for one more month is assured as things stand as of now. The markets may loose some bottom in case the RBI increases CRR by 50 basis points. The markets are reeling under pressure due these issue are of temporary in nature can settle with in 3 months. The growth story of the Indian economy is intact and can expect better investment opportunities in the years to come.
The Infotech story of 2000 can be seen in Infratech in 2010 and after. The best thing is to start investing in infratech companies that can offer huge potential for growth along with the health care sector including pharma. The long-term investors can stay invested in companies engaged in the projects that are under execution that can last more than 36 months. For short term investors best ting is to invest in FMCG that got benefit on palm oil imports. The Nifty is now good at 4500 and so long RIL stays above 2120 the danger to Nifty is safe guarded.
The worst ghost is now focusing on capital goods sector and the silver lining can be seen in tech stocks. The markets are weak due to the inflation numbers and the fear that can come from RBI side are vanished then the worst is over to our markets for at least 6 months as the Nuclear issue can be handled by the new Govt. in office after the elections. The business can be as usual and the policy decisions can be expected as a first sign came from the Central Cabinet that was reshuffled. The message that the Govt. wanted to send to the people and investors is clear that there was no immediate threat from the Left. On this occasion we welcome the new ministers with cheers at the D-street.
The Nifty is oscillating between 4550 to 5000 levels- a 10% move for one more month is assured as things stand as of now. The markets may loose some bottom in case the RBI increases CRR by 50 basis points. The markets are reeling under pressure due these issue are of temporary in nature can settle with in 3 months. The growth story of the Indian economy is intact and can expect better investment opportunities in the years to come.
The Infotech story of 2000 can be seen in Infratech in 2010 and after. The best thing is to start investing in infratech companies that can offer huge potential for growth along with the health care sector including pharma. The long-term investors can stay invested in companies engaged in the projects that are under execution that can last more than 36 months. For short term investors best ting is to invest in FMCG that got benefit on palm oil imports. The Nifty is now good at 4500 and so long RIL stays above 2120 the danger to Nifty is safe guarded.
The worst ghost is now focusing on capital goods sector and the silver lining can be seen in tech stocks. The markets are weak due to the inflation numbers and the fear that can come from RBI side are vanished then the worst is over to our markets for at least 6 months as the Nuclear issue can be handled by the new Govt. in office after the elections. The business can be as usual and the policy decisions can be expected as a first sign came from the Central Cabinet that was reshuffled. The message that the Govt. wanted to send to the people and investors is clear that there was no immediate threat from the Left. On this occasion we welcome the new ministers with cheers at the D-street.
Saturday, March 22, 2008
More worries for time being…..
The populist measures taken and the long-term growth driven investments made by the Finance Minister was not well received by the markets. The Govt. decision to write off the loans and its confusion to write-off (the long standing bad debts of the farmers) more as the increasing demand from all circles as the opportunity was thrown wide open, took the toll of the markets along with the global meltdown. The market fall provided great lessons to the investment community and to the swing traders “never are hasty to take investment decisions and always wait till the time is ripe”.
The length and the speed at which the market shooted up in Nov & Dec-07, the fall it took in latter part of Jan and March are best opportunities to exit and re-invest at this levels. The market operation never is ideal or convenient to the retail investor to take a right decision at right time. Any way these discussions are about the history and now any body could suggest what could be a right decision.
The best opportunity now available is to invest in blue chips considering the Budget proposals. The undisputed statement is Indian economy is an internal demand/growth driven economy and the proposed investments will not be differed. So focus on growth sectors that can safely lead the index to new highs with in 18 months from now. The market leaders are going to change this time from power to pharma related business.
This time the epicenter of the multidimensional industrial/economic growth will be health care- Bulk Drugs & formulations, Pharma research, CRAMS, Hospital services and allied services. The eco-tourism will become health tourism as an integral part of the health care services.
The length and the speed at which the market shooted up in Nov & Dec-07, the fall it took in latter part of Jan and March are best opportunities to exit and re-invest at this levels. The market operation never is ideal or convenient to the retail investor to take a right decision at right time. Any way these discussions are about the history and now any body could suggest what could be a right decision.
The best opportunity now available is to invest in blue chips considering the Budget proposals. The undisputed statement is Indian economy is an internal demand/growth driven economy and the proposed investments will not be differed. So focus on growth sectors that can safely lead the index to new highs with in 18 months from now. The market leaders are going to change this time from power to pharma related business.
This time the epicenter of the multidimensional industrial/economic growth will be health care- Bulk Drugs & formulations, Pharma research, CRAMS, Hospital services and allied services. The eco-tourism will become health tourism as an integral part of the health care services.
Saturday, March 08, 2008
Start accumulating the blue-chips…..
In my earlier write up clearly mention not to sell the enterprise so long the growth prospects are in tact in the long run. As an investor in stock markets one needs to be conscious to understand the developments happing around the globe and try to understand the impact over the prospects of the industry that was chosen as an investment opportunity. Please read my earlier write ups that can throw some light on the future prospects and the necessary levels that Nifty and the frontline stocks that needs to cross. Pls. read…. Distribute and eliminate…(21-11-2007), The end of the BULLRUN?.(17-12-2008), No longer immune…….(06-01-2008)
Never sell the Enterprise…(Dt.29-1-08)
The markets are facing rough time but the ray of hope lies in the growth story. The markets are likely to bounce back to new levels and even cross the High in the months to come as the dust will settle after two quarters. The India’s economy growth is intact and the corporate performance will improve in future. The internal consumption is huge and the breadth is increasing by strength.
The Nifty is strong at 4500-4600 levels. The range suggested earlier (5200 to 6300) is still a valid range as the FII’s have heavily from 19th Sep-07 to 16th Oct-07, invested at the 4500-5700 Nifty levels. The FII out flow is a cause of concern at this point in time but not at all a worry some event.
So long Reliance stays above 2430-50 level, ICICI stays above 1035-29 level and the ONGC stays above 1000-990, SBI stays above 2020 and the Bharti stays above 810 level the markets enjoy the bulls support.
It is very unfortunate that the retail investors who buy at the high/index and sell at the bottom of the index. The stock market investment is a skillful and precision job where knowledge and experience go hand in hand.
The novice investors, who mostly lured by the media message, think that it is very easy to make money from the market operations. The seasoned operators spread the rumors with lucrative price targets that attract the scapegoats to stock markets. The fresh flesh of scapegoats makes the feast tasty at the bourses. Like the instant coffee making machine, markets never spin sustained money but the losers at all times believe the rumors that it pores money but most retailers choose markets as investment avenue just because it allows everybody to participate even with their meager hard earned money.
The false conviction promotes to take large leveraged positions to make quick money at the earliest possible duration. The suggestions from the seniors turned down at the instance and that becomes melodious music to the deaf ears as every body thinks that the cheese is large enough to have their share.
It is a great opportunity for those who recognize the treasure that was stored in the stock markets and invest regularly for a period of time like any other plantations but most lack the patience to grab the opportunity. It is very important to identify a right stock at the right time is the crux of making money at the bourses -“Early bird catches the fish”.
Never sell the Enterprise…(Dt.29-1-08)
The markets are facing rough time but the ray of hope lies in the growth story. The markets are likely to bounce back to new levels and even cross the High in the months to come as the dust will settle after two quarters. The India’s economy growth is intact and the corporate performance will improve in future. The internal consumption is huge and the breadth is increasing by strength.
The Nifty is strong at 4500-4600 levels. The range suggested earlier (5200 to 6300) is still a valid range as the FII’s have heavily from 19th Sep-07 to 16th Oct-07, invested at the 4500-5700 Nifty levels. The FII out flow is a cause of concern at this point in time but not at all a worry some event.
So long Reliance stays above 2430-50 level, ICICI stays above 1035-29 level and the ONGC stays above 1000-990, SBI stays above 2020 and the Bharti stays above 810 level the markets enjoy the bulls support.
It is very unfortunate that the retail investors who buy at the high/index and sell at the bottom of the index. The stock market investment is a skillful and precision job where knowledge and experience go hand in hand.
The novice investors, who mostly lured by the media message, think that it is very easy to make money from the market operations. The seasoned operators spread the rumors with lucrative price targets that attract the scapegoats to stock markets. The fresh flesh of scapegoats makes the feast tasty at the bourses. Like the instant coffee making machine, markets never spin sustained money but the losers at all times believe the rumors that it pores money but most retailers choose markets as investment avenue just because it allows everybody to participate even with their meager hard earned money.
The false conviction promotes to take large leveraged positions to make quick money at the earliest possible duration. The suggestions from the seniors turned down at the instance and that becomes melodious music to the deaf ears as every body thinks that the cheese is large enough to have their share.
It is a great opportunity for those who recognize the treasure that was stored in the stock markets and invest regularly for a period of time like any other plantations but most lack the patience to grab the opportunity. It is very important to identify a right stock at the right time is the crux of making money at the bourses -“Early bird catches the fish”.
Monday, March 03, 2008
Get the Bud from the “Budget”………
The stimulus dose has been given to the slowing economy by the FM. The dose is a long acting balanced one. The sustained release of the budget proposal can be a good foundation to maintain the 8.5% growth rate. So get plant with the bud now and enjoy the fragrance of the flower later.
The auto sector will benefit from the excise cut but the rising cost of inputs is a great concern. So no run up or flare up at this point in time but the laggards will benefit the most in the long run.
The banking sector got the liquidity from the write off and support to the extent from the govt. The real problem is the new loan can get the repayment on time?.
The cigarettes get costlier that to the poor persons choice- no filtered one.
The Dividend double taxation is no more can support the parent companies whose subsidiaries are doing well.
The excise cut and rationalization of CENVAT can save good amount of tax saving to big companies, can add to the bottom line of the manufacturing sector.
The drag is from the petrochemical sector and the techies. The customs duty cut at the import level can save some amount but the levies on naptha will eat away the profits.
The tea sector got the excise relief.
The steel sector is nothing to worry or cry for the direct support from the govt. The infrastructure spending can take care.
The tourism and the hotel sector go hand in hand for their survival.
The cement companies are paying the price for the confrontation they made, now the telecom sector joined.
The set top boxes, data cords and the Internet expansion can add to volumes but not from the “Hello FM”.
The cold chain and the retailers are the sustained growth sectors in future got the required support from the budget.
The clear winner of the budget is the Pharma. The companies can get undisputed and the most required support on fronts. The hospitals also got the support and the health of net profit “insured”, be improved upon.
The Nifty can get the bottom support but the draggers put pressure on the top.
The politicians and the bureaucrats failed to dig-out the accumulated black money for more than 50 years but understood to crush the genuine tax players. The most unorganized sector of Dalal Street got deathblow. The Day traders whose support is crucial for the liquidity mercilessly squeezed. The need of the hour is to create a big union of the day traders and the short-term investors/momentum supporters to get the voice heard to the Delhi lobby.
A WILD DREAM- “THE MINISTER FOR SPECULATION” - WRITEOFF THE LOSSES MET BY DAY TRADERS AND SMALL INVESTORS AND 25 % TO HNIs, INCURRED DURING THE STEEPFALLS FROM 1991 UPTO JAN-2008. THE MINSTER ALSO QUOTED “ LOSS IS A LOSS TO ANY BODY AND THE GOVT. IS MADE BY EVEVRY BODY SO NOT COMITTED FOR SOMEBODY”.
The stimulus dose has been given to the slowing economy by the FM. The dose is a long acting balanced one. The sustained release of the budget proposal can be a good foundation to maintain the 8.5% growth rate. So get plant with the bud now and enjoy the fragrance of the flower later.
The auto sector will benefit from the excise cut but the rising cost of inputs is a great concern. So no run up or flare up at this point in time but the laggards will benefit the most in the long run.
The banking sector got the liquidity from the write off and support to the extent from the govt. The real problem is the new loan can get the repayment on time?.
The cigarettes get costlier that to the poor persons choice- no filtered one.
The Dividend double taxation is no more can support the parent companies whose subsidiaries are doing well.
The excise cut and rationalization of CENVAT can save good amount of tax saving to big companies, can add to the bottom line of the manufacturing sector.
The drag is from the petrochemical sector and the techies. The customs duty cut at the import level can save some amount but the levies on naptha will eat away the profits.
The tea sector got the excise relief.
The steel sector is nothing to worry or cry for the direct support from the govt. The infrastructure spending can take care.
The tourism and the hotel sector go hand in hand for their survival.
The cement companies are paying the price for the confrontation they made, now the telecom sector joined.
The set top boxes, data cords and the Internet expansion can add to volumes but not from the “Hello FM”.
The cold chain and the retailers are the sustained growth sectors in future got the required support from the budget.
The clear winner of the budget is the Pharma. The companies can get undisputed and the most required support on fronts. The hospitals also got the support and the health of net profit “insured”, be improved upon.
The Nifty can get the bottom support but the draggers put pressure on the top.
The politicians and the bureaucrats failed to dig-out the accumulated black money for more than 50 years but understood to crush the genuine tax players. The most unorganized sector of Dalal Street got deathblow. The Day traders whose support is crucial for the liquidity mercilessly squeezed. The need of the hour is to create a big union of the day traders and the short-term investors/momentum supporters to get the voice heard to the Delhi lobby.
A WILD DREAM- “THE MINISTER FOR SPECULATION” - WRITEOFF THE LOSSES MET BY DAY TRADERS AND SMALL INVESTORS AND 25 % TO HNIs, INCURRED DURING THE STEEPFALLS FROM 1991 UPTO JAN-2008. THE MINSTER ALSO QUOTED “ LOSS IS A LOSS TO ANY BODY AND THE GOVT. IS MADE BY EVEVRY BODY SO NOT COMITTED FOR SOMEBODY”.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
STILL TO CROSS…
In spite of the best efforts by the Bulls at the opening, taking cues from the global surge, failed to absorb the selling pressure. As posted earlier the Nifty failed to cross the 5371-75 levels but could hold the bottom intact that suits for Bulls.
The retail investors are no more enthusiastic to invest even though the stock prices are at mouth-watering levels. The smart money is entering but very selective to support the stocks like- SAIL, techs-Inosys, Satyam and the pharma pack Sun, Cipla, Ranbaxy, Biocon (these were already suggested-read earlier posts.)
The retail investors are no more enthusiastic to invest even though the stock prices are at mouth-watering levels. The smart money is entering but very selective to support the stocks like- SAIL, techs-Inosys, Satyam and the pharma pack Sun, Cipla, Ranbaxy, Biocon (these were already suggested-read earlier posts.)
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Not a good sign but……
As posted earlier the markets opened higher on Monday and Tuesday but failed to hold the gains made last week, as a matter of fact Nifty touched a high of 5368 a level that is most important for the bulls. (..The markets likely to open high but has to close above 5365-71 to continue the efforts made by the bulls during the week long fight against the bears/global concerns….). The real damage has done to Nifty today when it failed to hold above 5200 but the ray of silver line hope lingering at the other end of the tunnel that it could cover the losses by the week end and stays above 5263 will become a good sign. The positive side of the Nifty is still above 5085 on closing basis but the frontline counters failed to cheer the bulls.
Incase RIL trades below 2350, ICICI below 1066, ONGC below 930, SBI below 2128 and SAIL below 204 (very crucial levels) then there a serious damage done to the Nifty and will correct sharply to 4000 levels. The markets may take longer period to revive than expected earlier. As of now, I think that the bulls are inviting bears to sell as much they could to trap them heavily before the good news known to every body.
The Retail Investors can avail the opportunity to eat more stock-food to fatten the kitty but shall not expose to swallow the bullet.
Incase RIL trades below 2350, ICICI below 1066, ONGC below 930, SBI below 2128 and SAIL below 204 (very crucial levels) then there a serious damage done to the Nifty and will correct sharply to 4000 levels. The markets may take longer period to revive than expected earlier. As of now, I think that the bulls are inviting bears to sell as much they could to trap them heavily before the good news known to every body.
The Retail Investors can avail the opportunity to eat more stock-food to fatten the kitty but shall not expose to swallow the bullet.
Sunday, February 17, 2008
The closing is crucial….
The markets likely to open high but has to close above 5365-71 to continue the efforts made by the bulls during the week long fight against the bears/global concerns. The immediate resistance will come at 5471-85 level. The markets any way face resistance at every level but the crucial thing is that it should not loose the bottom support. The markets may oscillate for next two weeks till the budgets boosts the sentiment. The policy matters likely to infuse new blood in the markets if it stays above 5480 by Feb series. The blue chips in the banking sector building hopes on insurance sector and economic growth may find good support from bulls once the Budget sops announced to Heath insurance and the corporate tax cut. The FM will infuse large savings of industry and personal income to plough back for rapid growth well above 9%.
The pharma sector will get FII support as they encouraged the IT sector. So KOI- Keep On Investing in stocks that do the CRAMS business. The power equipment sector will be no more a favourate on the bourses but the encouragement will afloat the stocks at these levels. The boom in the realty will continue to stay and the stocks will out perform the Nifty. The emerging sector will be CNG and gas distribution in the towns. The RNRL will see more good days than now. The GAIL will benefit the most than the other stocks in the Nifty.
The Nifty will find first support at 5135 level and 5085 is crucial. Incase Nifty trades below 5085, then offload 50% of the holding. The RIL has support at 2356-26, Infy has support at 1441-45 levels but it is good above 1505-11 levels. The ICICI bank has support at 1135-30 and SBI has support at 2130-35 levels. The relatively weak counters are Bharti and RCOM. The Bharti has to cross 909 at the earliest possible time and shall trade above 850. The RCOM has to cross 645 and shall trade above 611-15 levels to see that the stocks get bulls support along with the Nifty advancement. The positive sentiment will become a foundation for next big movement when the Nifty trades above 5545.
The pharma sector will get FII support as they encouraged the IT sector. So KOI- Keep On Investing in stocks that do the CRAMS business. The power equipment sector will be no more a favourate on the bourses but the encouragement will afloat the stocks at these levels. The boom in the realty will continue to stay and the stocks will out perform the Nifty. The emerging sector will be CNG and gas distribution in the towns. The RNRL will see more good days than now. The GAIL will benefit the most than the other stocks in the Nifty.
The Nifty will find first support at 5135 level and 5085 is crucial. Incase Nifty trades below 5085, then offload 50% of the holding. The RIL has support at 2356-26, Infy has support at 1441-45 levels but it is good above 1505-11 levels. The ICICI bank has support at 1135-30 and SBI has support at 2130-35 levels. The relatively weak counters are Bharti and RCOM. The Bharti has to cross 909 at the earliest possible time and shall trade above 850. The RCOM has to cross 645 and shall trade above 611-15 levels to see that the stocks get bulls support along with the Nifty advancement. The positive sentiment will become a foundation for next big movement when the Nifty trades above 5545.
Some time needed…
The markets taken the timely u-turn to see new highs in future but it will take some time to do so.
As suggested in the previous posting the Nifty took a deep low at around 4800 and trapped the ardent bears to see further low. The earlier suggested level for the Nifty is at 5085 but to trap the bears it took a deep low at 4803 but took bottom support at that level for 3-trading sessions and the journey took the index to reach 5300 levels. This classic example can be correlated with the BHEL support at 2047 and then a trap to bring at 1850 levels to see the bears live in joy for a day or two. Try to understand the game plan behind the moves to understand the stock market operation.
The length of fall is so deep that it could take more time to bring the retail investors to market. The financially damaged retail investors tasted bitter experience with R-Power, are experiencing a series of failures at their investment decisions. They are now nostalgic to the heart pains/caused wounds. They need more time to forget the bad feelings of buying stocks and will become scapegoats again at the top.
So always “Buy Low and Sell High”- this could be a valid proposition only when one understands the market movements. The other way of investment in stocks is “Buy when the trader’s margin selling happens and Sell when the trader is confident to take delivery with margin”.
As suggested in the previous posting the Nifty took a deep low at around 4800 and trapped the ardent bears to see further low. The earlier suggested level for the Nifty is at 5085 but to trap the bears it took a deep low at 4803 but took bottom support at that level for 3-trading sessions and the journey took the index to reach 5300 levels. This classic example can be correlated with the BHEL support at 2047 and then a trap to bring at 1850 levels to see the bears live in joy for a day or two. Try to understand the game plan behind the moves to understand the stock market operation.
The length of fall is so deep that it could take more time to bring the retail investors to market. The financially damaged retail investors tasted bitter experience with R-Power, are experiencing a series of failures at their investment decisions. They are now nostalgic to the heart pains/caused wounds. They need more time to forget the bad feelings of buying stocks and will become scapegoats again at the top.
So always “Buy Low and Sell High”- this could be a valid proposition only when one understands the market movements. The other way of investment in stocks is “Buy when the trader’s margin selling happens and Sell when the trader is confident to take delivery with margin”.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
No longer a long fall..
The Nifty has created a great concern suddenly dropping nearly by 200 points from previous week. Now the markets are moving Southwards in spite of smart money entering into prime stocks. The best thing is let the market fall to the deepest possible place, as it is a trap to bears; once it crosses 5135 buy the good stocks that have limited scope to fall. The best thing is to accumulate the out-performing sectors like pharma, auto and techs to some extent. The weak signals are not over but the hope is building by strength on the budget expectations on tax sops to corporates. As posted earlier the Reliance got support at 2390 level and closed at 2426.
The worrying factor is that that markets did not excused the slow down in the growth when the CSO announced the data. The steep fall more than 180 points damaged the short-term prospects of early recovery of Nifty. Now Nifty will advance definite, confirmed growth prospects. This provides an excellent opportunity for cherry picking in the lot. The clear signals of advance movements confirmed in software stocks like Infosys, so long it stays above 1470 favours the bulls and likely to gain over Rs 200/-, can easily cross 1749-1770, Satyam can cross 453-460 range, Wipro can cross 463. The smart money is entering in the auto sector, especially Tata Motors will run above 740 to 870 range and the rest will follow. The defensive sector Pharma will now infuse fresh momentum with the tax benefits to the R&D and the private equity players encourage our companies to expand to meet the demand of CRAMS business. The top players like Cipla and Ranbaxy started bottom building. The stocks like Dishman, Divis, Nicholas and Matrix will give 60-100 % returns in one year. So falling Nifty cause tension for those whose investments are for a week to 10 days (now forger Buy Today Sell Tomorrow story). Nobody has ever thought how dangerous it is to find a fool for the next day to buy those dumped stocks on premium for a single night holding.
The worrying factor is that that markets did not excused the slow down in the growth when the CSO announced the data. The steep fall more than 180 points damaged the short-term prospects of early recovery of Nifty. Now Nifty will advance definite, confirmed growth prospects. This provides an excellent opportunity for cherry picking in the lot. The clear signals of advance movements confirmed in software stocks like Infosys, so long it stays above 1470 favours the bulls and likely to gain over Rs 200/-, can easily cross 1749-1770, Satyam can cross 453-460 range, Wipro can cross 463. The smart money is entering in the auto sector, especially Tata Motors will run above 740 to 870 range and the rest will follow. The defensive sector Pharma will now infuse fresh momentum with the tax benefits to the R&D and the private equity players encourage our companies to expand to meet the demand of CRAMS business. The top players like Cipla and Ranbaxy started bottom building. The stocks like Dishman, Divis, Nicholas and Matrix will give 60-100 % returns in one year. So falling Nifty cause tension for those whose investments are for a week to 10 days (now forger Buy Today Sell Tomorrow story). Nobody has ever thought how dangerous it is to find a fool for the next day to buy those dumped stocks on premium for a single night holding.
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
The Worst is not over…
The global turmoil has not came to an end as one after one bad news is unwinding after every rise the markets are inching globally. The spin that created due to sub-prime issue is going to settle in a week’s time as the eve of Budget-08 is going to creat its interest at the Indian bourses.
The technical’s are building on weak foundations of global cues at Nifty level but the bottom building is on. Incase the Budget fails to meet the market expectations then the markets likely to touch 4135-45 range and may stay in that range for more than an year as the election schedule will dampen the markets. So the crucial support at the first level exists at 5115-5085, then the crux of Nifty support exists at 4503-4518.
The markets look southwards so long Reliance trade below 2645-50, but the Bulls keep their faith strongly to fight against all odds until Reliance trades above 2400-2380. The immediate support for the Nifty is at 5225-15 and the front line Nifty movers are favouring the bulls at this point in time.
The technical’s are building on weak foundations of global cues at Nifty level but the bottom building is on. Incase the Budget fails to meet the market expectations then the markets likely to touch 4135-45 range and may stay in that range for more than an year as the election schedule will dampen the markets. So the crucial support at the first level exists at 5115-5085, then the crux of Nifty support exists at 4503-4518.
The markets look southwards so long Reliance trade below 2645-50, but the Bulls keep their faith strongly to fight against all odds until Reliance trades above 2400-2380. The immediate support for the Nifty is at 5225-15 and the front line Nifty movers are favouring the bulls at this point in time.
Sunday, February 03, 2008
As simple as that ….
The stock market is a beautiful place where all can gather and have fun, offering parties, celebrating for some body’s fall is also seen even when the days of mourning were announced at the bourses. This is a common phenomenon that can be tracked across the world. The interested groups gather to enjoy the party when some body made a “Killing” in the market while the Bull move is on. These easy earnings and celebrations throw lots of hope in the individuals who are even called at that particular point as spectators of the “Stock Game”. At this point in time no-body listens -“Stock market game is no child’s play”.
These spectators spread the news of how easy it is to mint lakhs/crores at the bourses that to in weeks/days. These people motivate the sleeping/non-participators to grab the ever-flooding opportunities in the stock market. Slowly but surely the “chain action” will spread the news to streets. The “chain action generated reaction” will increase the activity in the market that propels the prices to higher levels. The money flows and chases the stocks unabated. The crux of the game starts here- the fag end retail investor/new participant think that the up move is real and permanent. This story is not new to the seasoned but they also get trapped as they think/rather advance a bit before the fall starts. So they get trapped twice in the short side and their stop losses get triggered. The new comers will lift the stocks shorted by the seasoned as they think that the move is a “God sent opportunity”.
Now the operators build positions against the up move at the top/plateau, they tend to loose some notional loss as the stock even move higher. The seasoned traders think that the high volume built up at the top is a bottom building exercise for a fresh move. So they tend to go long or wait for confirmation of the long move that keeps them away from shorting or leaving their deliveries. The real crack down will happen at that movement that leads to sharp fall in the market. The new comers and the margin traders get wiped out of the system. The losses put burden on their families and the crying on streets by blaming the “Market” becomes a day of activity for some time. The newspapers mention in their headlines how the Govt. failed to save the retail investor. But very little effort has done to educate the investors. No media tried enough to educate the retailer investor about the over greediness/underling dangers of capital loss or the need for systematic investment plan over a period of time. We all know that the story repeats once again after some time.
The cracks can be seen before a collapse; like that the sprout cracks the ground to emerge. The stock market is no different from nature, do some homework, understand the business cycles and the company prospects before investing. Above all the stock market operation is as simple as that ‘Never build the herd mentality but Follow the Trend”.
These spectators spread the news of how easy it is to mint lakhs/crores at the bourses that to in weeks/days. These people motivate the sleeping/non-participators to grab the ever-flooding opportunities in the stock market. Slowly but surely the “chain action” will spread the news to streets. The “chain action generated reaction” will increase the activity in the market that propels the prices to higher levels. The money flows and chases the stocks unabated. The crux of the game starts here- the fag end retail investor/new participant think that the up move is real and permanent. This story is not new to the seasoned but they also get trapped as they think/rather advance a bit before the fall starts. So they get trapped twice in the short side and their stop losses get triggered. The new comers will lift the stocks shorted by the seasoned as they think that the move is a “God sent opportunity”.
Now the operators build positions against the up move at the top/plateau, they tend to loose some notional loss as the stock even move higher. The seasoned traders think that the high volume built up at the top is a bottom building exercise for a fresh move. So they tend to go long or wait for confirmation of the long move that keeps them away from shorting or leaving their deliveries. The real crack down will happen at that movement that leads to sharp fall in the market. The new comers and the margin traders get wiped out of the system. The losses put burden on their families and the crying on streets by blaming the “Market” becomes a day of activity for some time. The newspapers mention in their headlines how the Govt. failed to save the retail investor. But very little effort has done to educate the investors. No media tried enough to educate the retailer investor about the over greediness/underling dangers of capital loss or the need for systematic investment plan over a period of time. We all know that the story repeats once again after some time.
The cracks can be seen before a collapse; like that the sprout cracks the ground to emerge. The stock market is no different from nature, do some homework, understand the business cycles and the company prospects before investing. Above all the stock market operation is as simple as that ‘Never build the herd mentality but Follow the Trend”.
Saturday, February 02, 2008
Increasing B P ….
The real test for Bulls and the in built long run of Bullishness in the Indian markets will see the new opening tomorrow. In case the Indian markets are in bull grip, then the markets will open above 5226 and will close above 5280 at Nifty.
The bears took lot of advantage due to US financial crisis and global troubles. The situation at the home is very positive. (I failed to publish- It has little importance but can be used as a record.)
The bears took lot of advantage due to US financial crisis and global troubles. The situation at the home is very positive. (I failed to publish- It has little importance but can be used as a record.)
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
The game of averages …
The operators take large amount of “Risk” and so is the “Return”. The retail investor always at the fag end to receive the vital information and fail to do necessary home that can give good returns/protect him from the pit falls. I try to once again make the readers about the warning made when the Mid and Small cap run up started …… titled as Distribute and eliminate…………..dt.21-11-07…
Who will buy at higher levels is all ways the question asked by many and the doubt can be answered only when some body experiences the taste of buying at the top and selling at the panic bottom.
“Don’t be CRAZY to chase…”, “be cautious…..,” the phrases often used and shout… buy buy buying—happening every where……create a confusion in the minds of investors and make them to believe every thing is rosy and beautiful. This is a classical effort to prepare the retail small investors to become scapegoats.
In my earlier write up cautioned the readers to think about the happenings at the bourses. The speeds at which things are happening are very new to Indian investors and are losing time, opportunity and money in the process. The game plans are designed in such a manner to eliminate the retail investor incase somebody holding good stocks at fair prices.
“The steep falls and steep rises give little time to think.”— “Stock Market” is a mind game and every step of investment shall go after through research, understanding the business and the timing of pricing the investment.
At the end of the day “Minting Money” in the “Stock Market” comes by “Buy Low- Sell High” but not by buying cheap………………
The experts are clear about the Bull market but are not advising the investors to buy at the rock bottom prices and asking to wait till they average.
The Indian growth story is selling at dirt cheap at the bourses. The inherent strengths are unexplored and more good days to come. Let some body suffer at some place be sympathetic but all thing hungama is just because to give respect. But after a few days of turmoil, the nations will go back to work. Because US is going for elections like us they are also compelling the Govt. to go for some incentives to industry and to the public. The US is no exception than any other nation when it comes to elections. So there is nothing to worry about our GDP growth or about our markets. The good companies will flourish early than the laggards any way lose their steam.
Who will buy at higher levels is all ways the question asked by many and the doubt can be answered only when some body experiences the taste of buying at the top and selling at the panic bottom.
“Don’t be CRAZY to chase…”, “be cautious…..,” the phrases often used and shout… buy buy buying—happening every where……create a confusion in the minds of investors and make them to believe every thing is rosy and beautiful. This is a classical effort to prepare the retail small investors to become scapegoats.
In my earlier write up cautioned the readers to think about the happenings at the bourses. The speeds at which things are happening are very new to Indian investors and are losing time, opportunity and money in the process. The game plans are designed in such a manner to eliminate the retail investor incase somebody holding good stocks at fair prices.
“The steep falls and steep rises give little time to think.”— “Stock Market” is a mind game and every step of investment shall go after through research, understanding the business and the timing of pricing the investment.
At the end of the day “Minting Money” in the “Stock Market” comes by “Buy Low- Sell High” but not by buying cheap………………
The experts are clear about the Bull market but are not advising the investors to buy at the rock bottom prices and asking to wait till they average.
The Indian growth story is selling at dirt cheap at the bourses. The inherent strengths are unexplored and more good days to come. Let some body suffer at some place be sympathetic but all thing hungama is just because to give respect. But after a few days of turmoil, the nations will go back to work. Because US is going for elections like us they are also compelling the Govt. to go for some incentives to industry and to the public. The US is no exception than any other nation when it comes to elections. So there is nothing to worry about our GDP growth or about our markets. The good companies will flourish early than the laggards any way lose their steam.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Never sell the Enterprise…
The markets are facing rough time but the ray of hope lies in the growth story. The markets are likely to bounce back to new levels and even cross the High in the months to come as the dust will settle after two quarters. The India’s economy growth is intact and the corporate performance will improve in future. The internal consumption is huge and the breadth is increasing by strength.
The Nifty is strong at 4500-4600 levels. The range suggested earlier (5200 to 6300) is still a valid range as the FII’s have heavily from 19th Sep-07 to 16th Oct-07, invested at the 4500-5700 Nifty levels. The FII out flow is a cause of concern at this point in time but not at all a worry some event.
So long Reliance stays above 2430-50 level, ICICI stays above 1035-29 level and the ONGC stays above 1000-990, SBI stays above 2020 and the Bharti stays above 810 level the markets enjoy the bulls support. Small aberrations through opportunity to buy but not to sell.The HDFC, HDFC bank, RCOM, REL, NTPC, SAIL, Tata Steel are going to catch up in future. The Techs are bottomed out and they have limited space left to correct. The correction could not change the bottom supports of ITC and HUL. The rest any way change their weight age time and again as they could through no material impact on the Nifty levels.
The immediate support levels for Nifty are at 5080 and can easily touch 5680 with or with out global cues that can favour our markets. The US recession will become a boon to us as they out- source services to products. The Auto and auto components business will benefit in future will get favourable news from June-08. The bad period may last for 6-9 months; consider this as an opportunity for a fine consolidation period and an excellent base for the next boom. The market participants know that markets observe periods of consolidation and a vertical rise cannot last longer.
So Never sell the growth story of the enterprise but sell the stock at higher levels and re-enter at the lower levels. The investment at higher levels is a valid proposition for the operator as it could through some opportunity to offload large chunk of holding but not for the small/retail investor. “Never chase stocks - Never miss a Growth Stock”.
The Nifty is strong at 4500-4600 levels. The range suggested earlier (5200 to 6300) is still a valid range as the FII’s have heavily from 19th Sep-07 to 16th Oct-07, invested at the 4500-5700 Nifty levels. The FII out flow is a cause of concern at this point in time but not at all a worry some event.
So long Reliance stays above 2430-50 level, ICICI stays above 1035-29 level and the ONGC stays above 1000-990, SBI stays above 2020 and the Bharti stays above 810 level the markets enjoy the bulls support. Small aberrations through opportunity to buy but not to sell.The HDFC, HDFC bank, RCOM, REL, NTPC, SAIL, Tata Steel are going to catch up in future. The Techs are bottomed out and they have limited space left to correct. The correction could not change the bottom supports of ITC and HUL. The rest any way change their weight age time and again as they could through no material impact on the Nifty levels.
The immediate support levels for Nifty are at 5080 and can easily touch 5680 with or with out global cues that can favour our markets. The US recession will become a boon to us as they out- source services to products. The Auto and auto components business will benefit in future will get favourable news from June-08. The bad period may last for 6-9 months; consider this as an opportunity for a fine consolidation period and an excellent base for the next boom. The market participants know that markets observe periods of consolidation and a vertical rise cannot last longer.
So Never sell the growth story of the enterprise but sell the stock at higher levels and re-enter at the lower levels. The investment at higher levels is a valid proposition for the operator as it could through some opportunity to offload large chunk of holding but not for the small/retail investor. “Never chase stocks - Never miss a Growth Stock”.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
The Fittest will….
The trouble was there in the market when the markets crossed 6300 at Nifty level and the supports became weak but it survived on the euphoria of Mid and small cap run-up. I personally warned in my write up titled..(Y can’t it be…………….Dt.18-11-2007……. I personally feel that the prices are sky rocketing with thin edge time to participate in those sharp moves is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.
The retail investor will now about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day the participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. Be cautious……………………).
The situation could not have this much worse but the deep write down mess in the US financial sector gave an opportunity to correct the steep valuations at the home. So the conclusion is as simple as that “Never buy beyond a point… the point can be identified by the age old, ever green safe investment method—P/E ratio”.
So never blame the market or the seller who made you to buy. It is a simple marketing strategy. While some one out for shopping shall understand his/her home needs rather than blaming marketing people. The emotions at stock market will drain the purse and fill the heart with pain.
The retail investor will now about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day the participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. Be cautious……………………).
The situation could not have this much worse but the deep write down mess in the US financial sector gave an opportunity to correct the steep valuations at the home. So the conclusion is as simple as that “Never buy beyond a point… the point can be identified by the age old, ever green safe investment method—P/E ratio”.
So never blame the market or the seller who made you to buy. It is a simple marketing strategy. While some one out for shopping shall understand his/her home needs rather than blaming marketing people. The emotions at stock market will drain the purse and fill the heart with pain.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
So is US………
The markets are fighting for their survival as the Bull Run took a beating at the bourses due to US internal problems. The markets will take considerable time to resume their upward move. (Pls.read my earlier write ups.---the range suggested at 5250-6290 but the high touched at 6347). The game plan of the operators are very clear that they took the Sub-prime issue for more than 6-months so that the retail investor forget. I warned that the sub-prime issue is much bigger than what they pronouncing.
Now the long period of consolidation is good opportunity to traders as they can get in and get out at every 12-15% rise and fall. The earnings will be good to the Indian industry as the consumer demand and the economic growth continue to flourish. The markets likely to test the bottom at 5192-5226 at the worst scenario but this will happen only if the Nifty fails to cross 5935 before the end of Jan-FO series.
The markets likely to get support at 5670 level as first support and if trades below that level then the support at 5445-15 level at the October-07 level. So long the Reliance stays above 2630-50 level, ICICI stays above 1135-29 level and the ONDC stays above 1090-1110, SBI stays above 2020 and the Bharti stays above 810 level the markets enjoy the bulls support. This correction is a measure to MFs & FIIs to save themselves from the Mid-cap trap happened at 2005.
Now the long period of consolidation is good opportunity to traders as they can get in and get out at every 12-15% rise and fall. The earnings will be good to the Indian industry as the consumer demand and the economic growth continue to flourish. The markets likely to test the bottom at 5192-5226 at the worst scenario but this will happen only if the Nifty fails to cross 5935 before the end of Jan-FO series.
The markets likely to get support at 5670 level as first support and if trades below that level then the support at 5445-15 level at the October-07 level. So long the Reliance stays above 2630-50 level, ICICI stays above 1135-29 level and the ONDC stays above 1090-1110, SBI stays above 2020 and the Bharti stays above 810 level the markets enjoy the bulls support. This correction is a measure to MFs & FIIs to save themselves from the Mid-cap trap happened at 2005.
Sunday, January 06, 2008
No longer immune…….
The Indian markets are resilient to the external pressures of equity fall as the markets see god future but the immediate and short-term pressures cann’t be ruled out. In my ealier write up dated: 29/10/2007, clearly mentioned the possible up side be capped at 6290.
(It can’t be stretched further….…..I foresee the Bull run can become a long consolidation period- more than 6-9 months with a range of 5250-6290 at Nifty level).
The markets are likely to see more down ward action than upward momentum. The rise and fall ratio could be of 1:3 from next week onwards until Aug-Sep-2008. Incase economy could face the challenges for next 6 months than the upward journey in the stocks resume. Indian stocks valuations based on the broad based economy and growth prospects is over, sure for now. The real test of price move in upward direction depends on the companies that have to perform given the opportunities, then the markets.
(It can’t be stretched further….…..I foresee the Bull run can become a long consolidation period- more than 6-9 months with a range of 5250-6290 at Nifty level).
The markets are likely to see more down ward action than upward momentum. The rise and fall ratio could be of 1:3 from next week onwards until Aug-Sep-2008. Incase economy could face the challenges for next 6 months than the upward journey in the stocks resume. Indian stocks valuations based on the broad based economy and growth prospects is over, sure for now. The real test of price move in upward direction depends on the companies that have to perform given the opportunities, then the markets.
Tuesday, December 25, 2007
Uncertainty is Certain…
The stock valuations are most vulnerable by their nature to the minor and major issues and to local and international issues even if they are not of much importance on the face it but influence a lot by creating turbulance in the minds of the investors, cause anxiety that refluct as "demand and supply" cause fluctuations in the price irrespective of the percentage of concern. We can easily say, “the uncertainty is certain” at the bourses each time and every time. Those who fear about uncertainty can search their souls in peace, as nothing is certain.
As expected in my earlier write up the market bounced back on bull track in 4 trading sessions.(………if the Nifty to close above 5935 with in 3 trading sessions. At the immediate level the Nifty shall not close below 5670 level to continue the bull run…….. The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma).
Now the challenge at the Nifty level is to stay above 5778-71 to register a new high and above 6400 level by the end of first week of Feb-2008. The run up in the prices of power and infra will take a back seat and the service sectors and hotels will enjoy the support of bulls along with FMGC & retail move. The network of gas transportation is the emerging sector. I have been suggesting holding in Fertliser stocks and the next big bet on banks with insurance exposure. These sectors will explode maximum followed by oil exploration and allied services.
As expected in my earlier write up the market bounced back on bull track in 4 trading sessions.(………if the Nifty to close above 5935 with in 3 trading sessions. At the immediate level the Nifty shall not close below 5670 level to continue the bull run…….. The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma).
Now the challenge at the Nifty level is to stay above 5778-71 to register a new high and above 6400 level by the end of first week of Feb-2008. The run up in the prices of power and infra will take a back seat and the service sectors and hotels will enjoy the support of bulls along with FMGC & retail move. The network of gas transportation is the emerging sector. I have been suggesting holding in Fertliser stocks and the next big bet on banks with insurance exposure. These sectors will explode maximum followed by oil exploration and allied services.
Monday, December 17, 2007
The end of the BULLRUN for some time?.
Whether the markets are taking deep breath to settle for a long leap up move to scale new highs or this could be the end of the Bull Run? I see a steep correction like that happened in May 2005 if the Nifty to fails to close above 5935 with in 3 trading sessions. To console the brave hearts, at the immediate level Nifty shall not close below 5670 level to continue the bull run.
Incase the nifty fails to trade and close above 5885 tomorrow, it is likely that the markets likely to touch 5321-28 level and then markets need strong cues to rejuvenate the bulls.
The big boys of the market are very silent for their own reasons but the time has come that they need to infuse vital medicine to the Bulls to take on Bears. The good support of RIL at 2640-30, SBI has support at 2135-2128, ONGC has support at 1060-70, Bharti at 835-829 level and the ICICI has support at 1085-1090. Incase two or three stocks could stay above 4-5% above those support levels then the markets are for the Bulls.
The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma
With out doubt, the Small cap and Mid-cap run-up story is intact until the Nifty stays above 4865-4935 levels.
Incase the nifty fails to trade and close above 5885 tomorrow, it is likely that the markets likely to touch 5321-28 level and then markets need strong cues to rejuvenate the bulls.
The big boys of the market are very silent for their own reasons but the time has come that they need to infuse vital medicine to the Bulls to take on Bears. The good support of RIL at 2640-30, SBI has support at 2135-2128, ONGC has support at 1060-70, Bharti at 835-829 level and the ICICI has support at 1085-1090. Incase two or three stocks could stay above 4-5% above those support levels then the markets are for the Bulls.
The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma
With out doubt, the Small cap and Mid-cap run-up story is intact until the Nifty stays above 4865-4935 levels.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Gross & wild violation…..
Any body who live with technicals can contribute this fall is steep and wild in violating the supports. Any way the fact is the bottom is lost. The hope totally depended on the reliance, ONGC and SBI. They are very strong even at this level of correction. The bulls have the last opportunity to believe the market is a Bull market until it stays above 5175-80 levels. The markets can fluctuate with a wide range of spread for a greater consolidation as the prices have reached relatively high level.
Then the hope lies a head so long the RIL stays above 2580 at immediate support level and can even touch 2440-50 level. The ONGC got the support at 1090 and even can touch 1010-20 level. The big banking leader can touch 2020-2030 and even touch 1910-1900. The high tech ICICI can touch 1020-1010 level. The violation of the above levels can cause deep cracks that can take months to repair the bull move to regain.
So wait and see what will happen at global level and at the local level. The ray of hope lies with the support from local institutions and the deep-pocketed HNIs who are waiting for long time when the FIIs are at buying spree after the rate cut at US.
Then the hope lies a head so long the RIL stays above 2580 at immediate support level and can even touch 2440-50 level. The ONGC got the support at 1090 and even can touch 1010-20 level. The big banking leader can touch 2020-2030 and even touch 1910-1900. The high tech ICICI can touch 1020-1010 level. The violation of the above levels can cause deep cracks that can take months to repair the bull move to regain.
So wait and see what will happen at global level and at the local level. The ray of hope lies with the support from local institutions and the deep-pocketed HNIs who are waiting for long time when the FIIs are at buying spree after the rate cut at US.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Distribute and eliminate…………..
Who will buy at higher levels?- is the question asked by many and the doubt can be answered only when some body experiences the taste of buying at the top and selling at the panic bottom and realising the situations that made/forced to do so.
“Don’t be CRAZY to chase…”, “be cautious…..,” the phrases often used but by shouting… "buy buy buying—happening every where……"..create a situation, confuse the minds of investors and make them to believe that every thing is rosy and beautiful. This is a classical effort to prepare the retail small investors to become scapegoats.
In my earlier write up cautioned the readers to think about the happenings at the bourses. The speeds at which things are happening are very new to Indian investors and are losing time, opportunity and money in the process. The game plans are designed in such a manner to eliminate the retail investor incase somebody holding good stocks at fair prices.
“The steep falls and steep rises give little time to think.”— “Stock Market” is a mind game and every step of investment shall go after through research, understanding the business and the timing of pricing the investment.
At the end of the day “Minting Money” in the “Stock Market” comes by “Buy Low- Sell High” but not by buying cheap………………
“Don’t be CRAZY to chase…”, “be cautious…..,” the phrases often used but by shouting… "buy buy buying—happening every where……"..create a situation, confuse the minds of investors and make them to believe that every thing is rosy and beautiful. This is a classical effort to prepare the retail small investors to become scapegoats.
In my earlier write up cautioned the readers to think about the happenings at the bourses. The speeds at which things are happening are very new to Indian investors and are losing time, opportunity and money in the process. The game plans are designed in such a manner to eliminate the retail investor incase somebody holding good stocks at fair prices.
“The steep falls and steep rises give little time to think.”— “Stock Market” is a mind game and every step of investment shall go after through research, understanding the business and the timing of pricing the investment.
At the end of the day “Minting Money” in the “Stock Market” comes by “Buy Low- Sell High” but not by buying cheap………………
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Y can’t it be…………….
The story is contrary to the current happenings at the bourses. The positive side shall go like this way….
In my earlier write up I clearly mentioned to hold positions in fertilizer stocks for decent gains that turned right. Now they doubled from the prices recommended to buy & hold. In the same manner I wrote about the investments of FIIs in our markets. They first invested huge amounts in the Reliance group. They are familiar with the Reliance group growth story than the Indian growth story. Now they are spreading their investments to other sectors with different groups.
The situationed at large caps are rather fully saturated at the price level and left with little scope for further appreciation. So the MFs, FIIs and the DIIs are left with no option but to explore new opportunities with emerging companies, though they are small to medium in size at this point in time. The flare up in prices is due to the mismatch in their size and the amount of liquid cash chasing the stock.
The negative side shall go this way….
The small caps and the medium cap stocks are now in their flare-up run at the bourses is visible but the investigative approach can show a dark side of manipulations in the game.
The story goes back to the 2005-2006, the FIIs, the MFs and the operators heavily invested in (the early bird catches the fish-but the frontliners bite the bullets in the war front) the Mid & small caps to capture the instant large gains which turned out a futile effort due to lack of liquidity due to the steep crash when the Sensex was at 12000-12500 range. The investments became dud for long two years with no moves. After a long frustration, now these people captured the up moves with vengeance.
I personally feel that the prices are sky rocketing with thin edge time to retail investors to participate in those sharp moves is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.The retail investor will now about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day only large participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. So Be cautious…………………… buy but never chase.
In my earlier write up I clearly mentioned to hold positions in fertilizer stocks for decent gains that turned right. Now they doubled from the prices recommended to buy & hold. In the same manner I wrote about the investments of FIIs in our markets. They first invested huge amounts in the Reliance group. They are familiar with the Reliance group growth story than the Indian growth story. Now they are spreading their investments to other sectors with different groups.
The situationed at large caps are rather fully saturated at the price level and left with little scope for further appreciation. So the MFs, FIIs and the DIIs are left with no option but to explore new opportunities with emerging companies, though they are small to medium in size at this point in time. The flare up in prices is due to the mismatch in their size and the amount of liquid cash chasing the stock.
The negative side shall go this way….
The small caps and the medium cap stocks are now in their flare-up run at the bourses is visible but the investigative approach can show a dark side of manipulations in the game.
The story goes back to the 2005-2006, the FIIs, the MFs and the operators heavily invested in (the early bird catches the fish-but the frontliners bite the bullets in the war front) the Mid & small caps to capture the instant large gains which turned out a futile effort due to lack of liquidity due to the steep crash when the Sensex was at 12000-12500 range. The investments became dud for long two years with no moves. After a long frustration, now these people captured the up moves with vengeance.
I personally feel that the prices are sky rocketing with thin edge time to retail investors to participate in those sharp moves is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.The retail investor will now about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day only large participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. So Be cautious…………………… buy but never chase.
Saturday, November 10, 2007
Nobody can stop…..
Nobody can stop or make an end to the stocks “moving”, but the question is always on the direction, at the end it surprises many. Market is the BOSS and boss is always right.
Never be regid to dictate the move either to upward or down ward, just respect it - you will be rewarded with profits.
The New Year of Indian stock market has closed with a thumps down move after 7 years on the eve of the celebration-“Happy Diwali”. The Indian stock market is left with more steam than any body could imagine. So, I personally suggested readers to go by stock specific rather than depending on the Index.
Markets have to fall to eliminate the weak hearts and the daydream manipulators. These two sections are always at the losing end at the end of the day because they place their money on weak fundamentally weak stocks but depend on momentum.
The strength of the market comes from the profits of adopted business models of the companies but not on their dripping margins. So never place your bets on the run-ups but on the sustainable earnings made by the good managements. The story is on and on but the identification of such companies…………….? Wait & watch.
Let the Indian Stock Market provide you a Happy and Prosperous New Year-2064
Never be regid to dictate the move either to upward or down ward, just respect it - you will be rewarded with profits.
The New Year of Indian stock market has closed with a thumps down move after 7 years on the eve of the celebration-“Happy Diwali”. The Indian stock market is left with more steam than any body could imagine. So, I personally suggested readers to go by stock specific rather than depending on the Index.
Markets have to fall to eliminate the weak hearts and the daydream manipulators. These two sections are always at the losing end at the end of the day because they place their money on weak fundamentally weak stocks but depend on momentum.
The strength of the market comes from the profits of adopted business models of the companies but not on their dripping margins. So never place your bets on the run-ups but on the sustainable earnings made by the good managements. The story is on and on but the identification of such companies…………….? Wait & watch.
Let the Indian Stock Market provide you a Happy and Prosperous New Year-2064
Monday, October 29, 2007
It can’t be stretched further….
It is a merciless killing of the “Bears” at the bourses by the Bulls and intelligently trapped the Bears in the pretext of mid-term and PM resignation……!. But the Bears could exert some pressure on the bulls to take a back seat on Friday that failed to the core by Monday. The sustained effect can be seen only when there is a reasonable selling happens on Tuesday, otherwise it is endless Bull run.
The banks are in news as the RBI credit policy and anticipated rate cut in US and at home. The credit off take has slowed considerably and the real momentum growth in stocks can put to test in future. I foresee the Bull run can become a long consolidation period- more than 6-9 months with a range of 5250-6290 at Nifty level.
Sincerely speaking the movements at the bourses put my mouth shut and the study was put to halt. The other side is that the study has to be reflected in my trading so I decided to publish in my "moneymagicbnr.blogspot.com" as TRADING TECHNIQUES link.
The banks are in news as the RBI credit policy and anticipated rate cut in US and at home. The credit off take has slowed considerably and the real momentum growth in stocks can put to test in future. I foresee the Bull run can become a long consolidation period- more than 6-9 months with a range of 5250-6290 at Nifty level.
Sincerely speaking the movements at the bourses put my mouth shut and the study was put to halt. The other side is that the study has to be reflected in my trading so I decided to publish in my "moneymagicbnr.blogspot.com" as TRADING TECHNIQUES link.
Thursday, October 11, 2007
No “net” and out of publishing……
………….(read 15th July posting)……..As Nifty reflects 50 companies, all companies won’t rise equally, on the first phase 3% rise works out to be 1290+ and Nifty could touch 5950-6020 ranges
……read the previous post..."The current P/E of Nifty as on date is at 23.4 and the Nifty at 5211. Now the best P/E can be at 25-26. So mathematically the Nifty could touch 25.5*5211/23.4 works out to be 5679. The FII fund flow and the euphoria of chasing stocks can last for few days, later the basics will come on to the discussion table".
In my earlier posting suggested the readers to hold RCOM to sell at 725+ and Bharti above 1050+…as the levels reached, pls. Book profits in case any body holding till date.
The endless story of bull market in India is intact and one can see very good prices to their holdings in future. The corrections are to invite fresh momentum to the the market but the caution is some sectors are over valued at this point in time, ultimately that counts- No body likes to travel in a sinking boat.
……read the previous post..."The current P/E of Nifty as on date is at 23.4 and the Nifty at 5211. Now the best P/E can be at 25-26. So mathematically the Nifty could touch 25.5*5211/23.4 works out to be 5679. The FII fund flow and the euphoria of chasing stocks can last for few days, later the basics will come on to the discussion table".
In my earlier posting suggested the readers to hold RCOM to sell at 725+ and Bharti above 1050+…as the levels reached, pls. Book profits in case any body holding till date.
The endless story of bull market in India is intact and one can see very good prices to their holdings in future. The corrections are to invite fresh momentum to the the market but the caution is some sectors are over valued at this point in time, ultimately that counts- No body likes to travel in a sinking boat.
Thursday, October 04, 2007
High Volatility…wipe out fresh Shorts….!
The Nifty stocks are very cheap to the FIIs as the Rupee appreciated from 45 range to 39 range. The FIIs already invested in India are enjoying the benefits of their wise decision and even the new/fresh sect of FIIs are buying the stocks at almost 13-15 % less than the prices prevailed on the day, after the 50 basis points rate cut by Fed i.e from 18th Sep-07. The reports say that the FIIs have invested ($4.8+ billion) more than Rs14800/- crores since 18th to 1st Oct.
The current P/E of Nifty as on date is at 23.4 and the Nifty at 5211. Now the best P/E can be at 25-26. So mathematically the Nifty could touch 25.5*5211/23.4 works out to be 5679. The FII fund flow and the euphoria of chasing stocks can last for few days, later the basics will come on to the discussion table.
The P/E is at the 2008 earnings that were not even calculated as the Sep.-07, results are not announced but already discounted to a large extent. In case of any dampen results from the core sector then the damage can be disastrous.
Even every thing goes well then also the P/E will settle at 21+, works out Nifty to be at 4677 or P/E at 22 then the Nifty could be placed at 4899.
So, in case get exited by the current bull run and buying at higher levels can take you to carry for at least 2 years before things works out on the new earnings of 2009-2010.
The current P/E of Nifty as on date is at 23.4 and the Nifty at 5211. Now the best P/E can be at 25-26. So mathematically the Nifty could touch 25.5*5211/23.4 works out to be 5679. The FII fund flow and the euphoria of chasing stocks can last for few days, later the basics will come on to the discussion table.
The P/E is at the 2008 earnings that were not even calculated as the Sep.-07, results are not announced but already discounted to a large extent. In case of any dampen results from the core sector then the damage can be disastrous.
Even every thing goes well then also the P/E will settle at 21+, works out Nifty to be at 4677 or P/E at 22 then the Nifty could be placed at 4899.
So, in case get exited by the current bull run and buying at higher levels can take you to carry for at least 2 years before things works out on the new earnings of 2009-2010.
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Global gains can be extended…?
The indices are rallying against each other at the global level and we are also integrated. The rally can be supported by the RIL and SBI as they were lagging.
At home, the Nifty has Bulls support above 5053 level and Bears wait until 5019 level and from there Bears will have advantage.
The RIL has support at 2275-71 levels and the upper side resistance at 2326-2331. The SBI has support at 1875-71 levels and the upper side resistance at 1926-1928.The RCOM has resistance at 626 and become weak below 603, Tata Steel has support at 835-34 and good support at 825-23, the resistance at 851.
The DLF is strong above 763, stop loss at 751-53 level. The UNITECH has bottom support at 312-09.
The run-up in REL has good bottom supports at 1305-06 and Relcap has good support at 1753-56 and the longs have to be maintained. The Bull move can be accelerated in Idea above 129 and in IFC above 149. Fresh long positions in L &T can be initiated above 2895.
Those who are long in NTPC can book their profits, as the target price is close at Rs 220/-
At home, the Nifty has Bulls support above 5053 level and Bears wait until 5019 level and from there Bears will have advantage.
The RIL has support at 2275-71 levels and the upper side resistance at 2326-2331. The SBI has support at 1875-71 levels and the upper side resistance at 1926-1928.The RCOM has resistance at 626 and become weak below 603, Tata Steel has support at 835-34 and good support at 825-23, the resistance at 851.
The DLF is strong above 763, stop loss at 751-53 level. The UNITECH has bottom support at 312-09.
The run-up in REL has good bottom supports at 1305-06 and Relcap has good support at 1753-56 and the longs have to be maintained. The Bull move can be accelerated in Idea above 129 and in IFC above 149. Fresh long positions in L &T can be initiated above 2895.
Those who are long in NTPC can book their profits, as the target price is close at Rs 220/-
The CRACKS & PLASTERING work ….
The Bulls are fully enjoying the days of happiness and the celebrations are being continued. The Bulls could push the Nifty to such a level that it will not fall so easily in-spite of the best efforts by the bears. The foundations at bottom are so strong that the continuation of “Bull Run” at this point in time is very much assured. But the strong numbers of the Sep-07 quarter can add value to the efforts made by the Bulls in advance other wise ?.
The power play is on and the markets are in thumps up situation to Reliance Power and its parent REL is enjoying the booty. The bulls are in charge of the Indices to scale up to new highs each time and every time.
The Monday move is a clear sign of cracks in the Bulls work but they could immediately do the plastering work to mitigate the severity of the damage. The Bears to some extent are shattered by the moves of Bulls on streets. As of now the time favours Bulls but from the US, the news flows are to be in favour of the bears and could exhaust the current Bull Run.
The strong case of Bears is their “life tonic” from the techs and their expression of inability to cope up with the rising rupee. The impending dangers in the US financial markets are cracking from the bottom and the slow down has begun beyond doubt. So the euphoria in the stocks across the globe could take a breathe for next six months as consolidation.
The power play is on and the markets are in thumps up situation to Reliance Power and its parent REL is enjoying the booty. The bulls are in charge of the Indices to scale up to new highs each time and every time.
The Monday move is a clear sign of cracks in the Bulls work but they could immediately do the plastering work to mitigate the severity of the damage. The Bears to some extent are shattered by the moves of Bulls on streets. As of now the time favours Bulls but from the US, the news flows are to be in favour of the bears and could exhaust the current Bull Run.
The strong case of Bears is their “life tonic” from the techs and their expression of inability to cope up with the rising rupee. The impending dangers in the US financial markets are cracking from the bottom and the slow down has begun beyond doubt. So the euphoria in the stocks across the globe could take a breathe for next six months as consolidation.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Never Fight?…...Just SAIL!
The history has never recorded any person win against the market with high fighting skills but just try to float while sailing.
The markets are enjoying the best days of Bull Market with euphoric support to the Indian equities. The markets steeply corrected at one point in time but recovered with the RIL up move. The huge civilization and the triumphant bull move scaling the valuations up on every day without break from the breakout from a low of 1921 to 2426 to date. The other counters are also making surprises to every body as the breakout with 30-40 % in two days that to in F&O scrips.
The Bears could exert aborted pressure in the early trade, failed to maintain through out the day. To some extent, some counters in reality sector, banks and power made some backward move. The real test to Bulls will be after expiry as the valuations were too stretched to carry along the October.
The GMR Infra del.(at 786/-) suggested can be booked tomorrow.
The markets are enjoying the best days of Bull Market with euphoric support to the Indian equities. The markets steeply corrected at one point in time but recovered with the RIL up move. The huge civilization and the triumphant bull move scaling the valuations up on every day without break from the breakout from a low of 1921 to 2426 to date. The other counters are also making surprises to every body as the breakout with 30-40 % in two days that to in F&O scrips.
The Bears could exert aborted pressure in the early trade, failed to maintain through out the day. To some extent, some counters in reality sector, banks and power made some backward move. The real test to Bulls will be after expiry as the valuations were too stretched to carry along the October.
The GMR Infra del.(at 786/-) suggested can be booked tomorrow.
Monday, September 24, 2007
Settle the Scores……Valuations next!
The “Bulls and Bears” fight at the streets intensified and may lead to a disaster. The company’s valuations are based on the earnings and the future performance with a projection. But now the wild spree has become so wild that may harm the small investor- the real backbone of the stock market.
The polarization of the investment groups supporting a few companies or a sector will create grudge on the operating group either it could be the FIIs or MFs. However great potential a company/ industry has that can deliver better results but it is only an assumption and assumptions can go wrong at any point in future. For whose sake the run –up in the markets when it was absent a few days back. There was no real change in the companies earning or in the economy.
The Nifty was closed at 4494 on last Monday and today closed at 4932. The sub- prime issue was not resolved, it is simply 50 basis points cut can’t bring so much of money to our markets at this astronomical prices, then for whose sake "We are celebrating at our bourses".
Do we mean that the FIIs do not have calculators or do not know how to calculate the valuations and blindly buy at the price that is offered?.
Any way the old adage is always right- “Buy Low- Sell High”.
The polarization of the investment groups supporting a few companies or a sector will create grudge on the operating group either it could be the FIIs or MFs. However great potential a company/ industry has that can deliver better results but it is only an assumption and assumptions can go wrong at any point in future. For whose sake the run –up in the markets when it was absent a few days back. There was no real change in the companies earning or in the economy.
The Nifty was closed at 4494 on last Monday and today closed at 4932. The sub- prime issue was not resolved, it is simply 50 basis points cut can’t bring so much of money to our markets at this astronomical prices, then for whose sake "We are celebrating at our bourses".
Do we mean that the FIIs do not have calculators or do not know how to calculate the valuations and blindly buy at the price that is offered?.
Any way the old adage is always right- “Buy Low- Sell High”.
Wait...."Bulls and even Bears"?
The ardent Bears love to sell at high but the Bulls are also eagerly waiting to trap and make more money while the market is shining in bull grip with media attention. A classic example of RNRL and RPL moves on Friday.
The momentum favours the bulls at this point in time. So those who are long in the Nifty and the other stocks can wait till the nifty trades below the 4785 level. In case tomorrow Nifty fails to trade above 4821 level and the high could not cross 4863-69 level then prefer shorts with stop at 4876-78 level. For investors the suggestion is to buy on declines in Idea, Zeel, and VSNL as investment purpose. The Wipro, HCL tech and TCS in software, in pharma – Ranbaxy, Dr Reddy and Biocon are calls adopting KOI principle (Keep On Investing…. already suggested for ITC at 168-170 range in July).
The Day traders can find opportunities to short in the reality sector but maintain GMR Infra Del. suggested with a stop of 786/- at the acquisition price. The weakest among the Nifty are metals- Tata Steel weak below 748-49 level, Sail weak below 195/- level, Ster weak below 696 levels.
The momentum favours the bulls at this point in time. So those who are long in the Nifty and the other stocks can wait till the nifty trades below the 4785 level. In case tomorrow Nifty fails to trade above 4821 level and the high could not cross 4863-69 level then prefer shorts with stop at 4876-78 level. For investors the suggestion is to buy on declines in Idea, Zeel, and VSNL as investment purpose. The Wipro, HCL tech and TCS in software, in pharma – Ranbaxy, Dr Reddy and Biocon are calls adopting KOI principle (Keep On Investing…. already suggested for ITC at 168-170 range in July).
The Day traders can find opportunities to short in the reality sector but maintain GMR Infra Del. suggested with a stop of 786/- at the acquisition price. The weakest among the Nifty are metals- Tata Steel weak below 748-49 level, Sail weak below 195/- level, Ster weak below 696 levels.
Wait....Bulls and even Bears?
The momentum favours the bulls at this point in time .So those who are long in the Nifty and the other stocks can wait till the nifty trades below the 4785 level. In case tomorrow Nifty fails to trade above 4821 level and the high could not cross 4863-69 level then prefer shorts with stop at 4876-78 level. For investor buy on declines in Idea, Zeel, and VSNL as investment pupose. The Wipro, HCL tech and TCS in software, in pharma – Ranbaxy, Dr Reddy and Biocon are calls adopting KOI principle (Keep On Investing…. already suggested for ITC at 168-170 range in July).
The Day traders can find opportunities to short in the reality sector but maintain GMR Infra Del. suggested with a stop of 786/- at the acquisition price.
The weakest among the Nifty are metals- Tata Steel weak below 748-49 level, Sail weak below 195/- level, Ster weak below 696 levels.
The Day traders can find opportunities to short in the reality sector but maintain GMR Infra Del. suggested with a stop of 786/- at the acquisition price.
The weakest among the Nifty are metals- Tata Steel weak below 748-49 level, Sail weak below 195/- level, Ster weak below 696 levels.
Sunday, September 23, 2007
The re-rating in the offing……..
The markets are "re-rating the stock valuations" time and again and every time . This time also no exception to re-rate the stocks to make some are as “Market Darlings” and some are “Destitutes”. The history through some light on the market movements and the market participants understand the need to observe the change in the CHOICE.
The political developments, economy and the business environment will influence the price movements. Now the situation for the telecom industry in now a place for fierce competition and the new players (a beeline queue for licenses) are threatening the market share of the existing players. Now the top two players Bharti and RCOM are fully valued at this point in time. The Idea has some room left for price appreciation but the others will survive with +5 % up side and – 20 to 25% on down side.
The power sector also reached a stage where there are more proposals than the start up of work at the ground. The construction work will take 3-4 years for each project and the prices zoomed on the hopes of applications and approvals. In India, the bureaucratic hurdles and political mileage of the oppositions in encouraging a protest is clearly visible in POSCO and Mittal Steel projects. The SEZ policy was well written on the papers than on the implementation. So beware of the negative news that favours the bears.
Now the momentum is in favour of the bulls and likely to stay till the expiry. The fresh buying in the hot stocks of today can become monuments for future.
Try to identify those stocks that can yield better margins in their balance sheets rather than following the trend assuming that it will continue in future also. Just recollect the fate of Sugar industry and remember the fate of Softwares.
"Think differently" doesn’t mean to be eccentric. Try to analyse the history, understand the present and Act for the Future. Good Luck.
The political developments, economy and the business environment will influence the price movements. Now the situation for the telecom industry in now a place for fierce competition and the new players (a beeline queue for licenses) are threatening the market share of the existing players. Now the top two players Bharti and RCOM are fully valued at this point in time. The Idea has some room left for price appreciation but the others will survive with +5 % up side and – 20 to 25% on down side.
The power sector also reached a stage where there are more proposals than the start up of work at the ground. The construction work will take 3-4 years for each project and the prices zoomed on the hopes of applications and approvals. In India, the bureaucratic hurdles and political mileage of the oppositions in encouraging a protest is clearly visible in POSCO and Mittal Steel projects. The SEZ policy was well written on the papers than on the implementation. So beware of the negative news that favours the bears.
Now the momentum is in favour of the bulls and likely to stay till the expiry. The fresh buying in the hot stocks of today can become monuments for future.
Try to identify those stocks that can yield better margins in their balance sheets rather than following the trend assuming that it will continue in future also. Just recollect the fate of Sugar industry and remember the fate of Softwares.
"Think differently" doesn’t mean to be eccentric. Try to analyse the history, understand the present and Act for the Future. Good Luck.
THE MOVE BEYOND…………
The markets made a blow out move after crossing the all time high at 4640 level- a nonstop journey to 4850. The word of caution at this point is the markets move up but with selective scrips participating the move. When we compare the scrips performance with the Nifty from the previous high to this level, there are very few stocks that advanced, but the Nifty crossed the high with “The RELIANCE group”. The Ambanis only enjoyed- as a matter of fact it could be the real cause of worry. A negative thinking can pose a question that “Is this group that represents the whole economy?”. If your answer is ‘Big No’ then there is something cooking.
But the other side of the story is colourful when we consider the past experience of the FIIs. In the global melt down that happened last year, the FIIs were trapped in the illiquid counters. The bitter experience due to illiquid counters and small companies kept them away from choosing them. The same story continued with the case of Sugar stocks, tea stocks and the other commodity & under performing sectors. The lessons learnt are costly and nightmare haunts them till date. So they are focusing and patronizing those groups that assure them consistent returns.
The FIIs are pumping money in the hot sectors with sound management. In the same energy sector, ONGC is kneeling down at RIL, REL is a high fly where as the NTPC, CESC and other power companies seeking fund support. The RCOM is jubilant where as the other MTNL and VSNL are surviving. The RNRL and RIIL are zooming where as others scouting for buyers.
The story is as simple as that- the real test for INDIAN stock market is the domestic FIs, the MFs and the venture capital funds shall come forward to encourage the best management groups to flourish along with the investors.
But the other side of the story is colourful when we consider the past experience of the FIIs. In the global melt down that happened last year, the FIIs were trapped in the illiquid counters. The bitter experience due to illiquid counters and small companies kept them away from choosing them. The same story continued with the case of Sugar stocks, tea stocks and the other commodity & under performing sectors. The lessons learnt are costly and nightmare haunts them till date. So they are focusing and patronizing those groups that assure them consistent returns.
The FIIs are pumping money in the hot sectors with sound management. In the same energy sector, ONGC is kneeling down at RIL, REL is a high fly where as the NTPC, CESC and other power companies seeking fund support. The RCOM is jubilant where as the other MTNL and VSNL are surviving. The RNRL and RIIL are zooming where as others scouting for buyers.
The story is as simple as that- the real test for INDIAN stock market is the domestic FIs, the MFs and the venture capital funds shall come forward to encourage the best management groups to flourish along with the investors.
Saturday, September 22, 2007
At striking distance….?
As posted on 15th July-07 titled…. The “Expansion-Extended”-global integration, clearly mentioned that the markets are likely to enjoy the real boom and likely to test new highs every time. (…Pls. read the full text).
…….Even if we go by the P/E ratio rule, the current P/E works out to be 21.63 at 4509 and the historical experience used as a measure to extrapolate, the low P/E at 17-18 and high at 29-30 times. Even if there was no surprises in the growth in the earnings, the rule of “averages” helps to arrive P/E @ 17.5+29.5= 23.5, on a conservative basis Nifty could touch 4509*23.5/21.6 works out to be 4900+.
It is those who win the battle are those who are determined to win. The market provides opportunity to every one those who understand it.
…….Even if we go by the P/E ratio rule, the current P/E works out to be 21.63 at 4509 and the historical experience used as a measure to extrapolate, the low P/E at 17-18 and high at 29-30 times. Even if there was no surprises in the growth in the earnings, the rule of “averages” helps to arrive P/E @ 17.5+29.5= 23.5, on a conservative basis Nifty could touch 4509*23.5/21.6 works out to be 4900+.
It is those who win the battle are those who are determined to win. The market provides opportunity to every one those who understand it.
Thursday, September 20, 2007
The world is celebrating….
The gains made yesterday are intact and indices are advancing for more gains. The long-term growth story of India is bright and improving day after day as the world events unfolding for our gains. As they loose, we stand to gain on our educated youthful population strength, the long coastline for exploration, large tracks of mineral rich forest covered hills and never the less barren lands for plantations to generate bio-fuels. In short every thing is rosy as the virgin unexploited resource reserves are blessing us.
But at the stock market, day-to-day fluctuations are common and tend to behave on the demand-supply principle. So the markets are likely to open high but see some profit booking in the stocks. The Relcap, Kotak Bank, Reliance energy and Aban are ripe for correction along with the other banking lot.The metals are buoyant and can advance in future, a correction is an opportunity to buy in SAIL, Hindalco. The techs may get some relief rally. When every body is celebrating, Pharma sector healing the wounds. The auto sector is likely to correct after the Sep. quarter results.
But at the stock market, day-to-day fluctuations are common and tend to behave on the demand-supply principle. So the markets are likely to open high but see some profit booking in the stocks. The Relcap, Kotak Bank, Reliance energy and Aban are ripe for correction along with the other banking lot.The metals are buoyant and can advance in future, a correction is an opportunity to buy in SAIL, Hindalco. The techs may get some relief rally. When every body is celebrating, Pharma sector healing the wounds. The auto sector is likely to correct after the Sep. quarter results.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Bears weep....WIPED out…?
The remarkable rally occurred in the Indian stock market with the positive global cues. The splendid response to the Fed rate cut by the markets is beyond my expectation. I am bullish as a whole but expected a small correction before it could test new high (pls. read earlier posts). The counters except Reliance, rest are waiting to cross their high resistance levels. But the fabulous move by RIL along with the banks like HDFC,HDFC bank, ICICI, SBI and the heavy weights like ONGC, Bharti, RCOM, Infosys, TCS, Tata Steel, SAIL and many more added fuel to the fire. The Sugars made a come back on the news of Ethanol usage and GoI support to the recovery of the industry.
I expected more room in the reality sector, sugessted for delivery especially in DLF (first-3/9/07)after it crossed 603 and asked to reenter at 618 (6/9/07) and again buy at 640 levels ( again third time- 17/9/07) that came yesterday to 643 and today simply 12% gain at Rs 720/-.
The new high can take the fresh journey from here as the bottom support was made at 4450 – 4503 levels for 10 trading sessions. The all time highs are in RIL, RPL, IPCL, REL, HDFC, HDFC bank, ABB, BHEL, Tata Steel, SAIL Sterlite and Grasim.
I expected more room in the reality sector, sugessted for delivery especially in DLF (first-3/9/07)after it crossed 603 and asked to reenter at 618 (6/9/07) and again buy at 640 levels ( again third time- 17/9/07) that came yesterday to 643 and today simply 12% gain at Rs 720/-.
The new high can take the fresh journey from here as the bottom support was made at 4450 – 4503 levels for 10 trading sessions. The all time highs are in RIL, RPL, IPCL, REL, HDFC, HDFC bank, ABB, BHEL, Tata Steel, SAIL Sterlite and Grasim.
FED feeds - boost to BULLS!
THE WORLD IS JUBILIANT OVER THE Fed rate cut by 50 basis points. The indices are trading by 2-3% surge in their valuations. The yester day move in our markets is a clear anticipated low risk high profit signal. Today the markets are likely to open above 4585 and may close above 4606 and high may cross 4618-21 resistance level.
The best bets are in the banking sector of medium stocks like Vijaya bank, DCB, YES bank and PFC as in news. The softwares likely to participate as a recovery mode and in anticipation of Insurance BPO business in the next 3-5 years. The RCOM has support at 535, RIL support at 2039-41, ONGC support at 835-36, SBI support at 1681-83 and ICICI has support at 916-18 level. The software are fresh to participate in the rally as Sataym has support at 421, Infy at 1801-03, TCS above 1006 and Wipro good above 453. The volumes in the recent four trading sessions can through some light on the market operations.
Early bird catches the fish but being late u r sure of the market movement- balance accordingly that suits u r style of trading. For swing & Day traders, there is nothing right as short or long to make money but mint money from the movements. One may have either “up or down” view on market but ultimately shall respect the market movement.
The best bets are in the banking sector of medium stocks like Vijaya bank, DCB, YES bank and PFC as in news. The softwares likely to participate as a recovery mode and in anticipation of Insurance BPO business in the next 3-5 years. The RCOM has support at 535, RIL support at 2039-41, ONGC support at 835-36, SBI support at 1681-83 and ICICI has support at 916-18 level. The software are fresh to participate in the rally as Sataym has support at 421, Infy at 1801-03, TCS above 1006 and Wipro good above 453. The volumes in the recent four trading sessions can through some light on the market operations.
Early bird catches the fish but being late u r sure of the market movement- balance accordingly that suits u r style of trading. For swing & Day traders, there is nothing right as short or long to make money but mint money from the movements. One may have either “up or down” view on market but ultimately shall respect the market movement.
The Bears lost the day but….
The Bulls could trap the Bears by bringing down the Nifty in the early trades and the Nifty took U- turn from 4481 level. The run-up to cross the resistance at 4506-08 level can be observed in the chart. This is to make the Bears to take a back step and cover the shorts made by the weak hearts. Today’s move is clearly to eliminate the previous two days shorts. The technical levels though favour the bulls at this point in time but not a good place to carry the deliveries for a longer period.
I am supporting the bears as most of the counters are saturated and hanging around those levels as the Nifty is not going any where for the last one week. These behaviors can be a consolidate move at higher level but the level of operation doesn’t support the argument. Tomorrow, the Nifty opening above 4563 and the low should be above 4520-23 level, shall trade above 4569 level for an hour can be considered as a good sign as the bottom building happed for a big move along with RIL above 2063 level and SBI above 1706. The L&T shall trade above 2640, BHEL shall trade above 1935, Bharti above 853 to make this move a favourable attempt made by Bulls to create a landmark in the Nifty.
I am supporting the bears as most of the counters are saturated and hanging around those levels as the Nifty is not going any where for the last one week. These behaviors can be a consolidate move at higher level but the level of operation doesn’t support the argument. Tomorrow, the Nifty opening above 4563 and the low should be above 4520-23 level, shall trade above 4569 level for an hour can be considered as a good sign as the bottom building happed for a big move along with RIL above 2063 level and SBI above 1706. The L&T shall trade above 2640, BHEL shall trade above 1935, Bharti above 853 to make this move a favourable attempt made by Bulls to create a landmark in the Nifty.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
The crucial move….
As posted yesterday, RPL high touched 131.65 and dropped to 129 low, the suggestion valid till it crosses 131.65. RCOM got resistance at 546.8, SBI touched high at 1675, Tata steel touched high at 714.9. The RIL dropped to 2020 level when lost support at 2035.(..read.. RPL has resistance at 131.65 and could move to get support at 123-122 level.)
The market has moved below the support level can bring joy to bears. Those who want to short shall check the Nifty resistance at 4521-23 and low shall be less than 4485-87.If Nifty trades below 4463 a steep fall is expected (on any given day). The RIL has resistance at 2039-41 (above 2045 strong), SBI has resistance at 1663, RCOM resistance at 539-41 Tata Steel resistance at 711-09.
In case of bull move GMR good for delivery above 786 and stop-loss at 773-71 level. Nifty trades above 4508-09, favours bulls buying opportunities in Punj Lloyd (buy above 291-stop loss at 288-87), NTPC- buy above 183-stop loss at 178.
The market has moved below the support level can bring joy to bears. Those who want to short shall check the Nifty resistance at 4521-23 and low shall be less than 4485-87.If Nifty trades below 4463 a steep fall is expected (on any given day). The RIL has resistance at 2039-41 (above 2045 strong), SBI has resistance at 1663, RCOM resistance at 539-41 Tata Steel resistance at 711-09.
In case of bull move GMR good for delivery above 786 and stop-loss at 773-71 level. Nifty trades above 4508-09, favours bulls buying opportunities in Punj Lloyd (buy above 291-stop loss at 288-87), NTPC- buy above 183-stop loss at 178.
Monday, September 17, 2007
Move on U R own…
The markets are de-coupling to re-couple after US Fed meet. The US markets are on their top in spite of their Sub-Prime issue. The question at this hour is "How can they..?". The markets manage themselves to move up or down on any issue. Markets never move in rational manner but surprise the other/counter part- it could be Bull or Bear. Markets seldom follow "Logic" but to understand the move one should have "Logic".
The Nifty is facing immediate resistance at 4526-31 levels, likely to see selling pressure below 4493-91 levels. The Nifty is strong and favours bulls above 4509 and below 4500 bears gain strength. The Nifty stocks are getting diminishing investor support is a cause of concern. The RIL has resistance at 2045-48 level, SBI at 1669-71, RCOM at 548-49 and Tata steel at 716-18. The shorts are safe in RIL below 2035 stop-loss at 2046. Buy Bharti above 848-49 stop-loss at 839.
The Indian Markets are likely to wait for the Fed. outcome for a day or two. The realty stocks have more room to surge up side in future but the short-term looks at correction. The DLF may test 640, UNITECH may touch 259-261 levels. The RPL has resistance at 131.65 and could move to get support at 123-122 level. Incase GMR trades above 796 buy with a stop loss of 783 for decent gains.
The Nifty is facing immediate resistance at 4526-31 levels, likely to see selling pressure below 4493-91 levels. The Nifty is strong and favours bulls above 4509 and below 4500 bears gain strength. The Nifty stocks are getting diminishing investor support is a cause of concern. The RIL has resistance at 2045-48 level, SBI at 1669-71, RCOM at 548-49 and Tata steel at 716-18. The shorts are safe in RIL below 2035 stop-loss at 2046. Buy Bharti above 848-49 stop-loss at 839.
The Indian Markets are likely to wait for the Fed. outcome for a day or two. The realty stocks have more room to surge up side in future but the short-term looks at correction. The DLF may test 640, UNITECH may touch 259-261 levels. The RPL has resistance at 131.65 and could move to get support at 123-122 level. Incase GMR trades above 796 buy with a stop loss of 783 for decent gains.
Sunday, September 16, 2007
A good start…ended?.
The world indices are running on green turf in spite of sub-prime hurdles. The Indian markets are waiting for the break out for up side. The positive are intact but the odd favouring bears are increasing day by day. The markets cannot continue to run on weak economic data and the confused political state of affairs either it could be “Ram or 123”.
The break down is due and waiting for the trigger. The markets here are likely to be positive so long Nifty stays above 4509 level and can wait for some time in green before a real journey takes place below 4481 level. Incase ONGC fails to trade above 845 level, RIL fails to trade above 2045 level and ICICI fails to trade above 903 then the markets correct deeply as the weight of its own will become heavy to hold above those levels.
The break down is due and waiting for the trigger. The markets here are likely to be positive so long Nifty stays above 4509 level and can wait for some time in green before a real journey takes place below 4481 level. Incase ONGC fails to trade above 845 level, RIL fails to trade above 2045 level and ICICI fails to trade above 903 then the markets correct deeply as the weight of its own will become heavy to hold above those levels.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
THE DECISIVE MOVE…..
In my previous post (7-9-07) titled “Surprise to many…. The Nifty has made a good move by building the bottom and likely that could consolidate between 4353-4550 level for 10-12 trading sessions before it could test new high in future.
The markets took a decisive move today to close above 4526 level from the range bound actions are being performed for some time. The NIFTY-4359 came on 30th Aug and took 11 trading days till date and Nifty made a decent close above the resistance level. The real test for NIFTY is to open above 4556-59 level and should try to pierce the resistance of 4573-71 level in the first hour of the trade. But this can become a solace to bull so that the bears get fear in their spine to short heavily. As a strategy, the Bulls won’t take the Nifty to new highs in this run as that move could put more loads to carry the cost of buying at higher levels. So Nifty likely to retrace to 4380 level and provide excellent buying opportunities to investors.
The markets took a decisive move today to close above 4526 level from the range bound actions are being performed for some time. The NIFTY-4359 came on 30th Aug and took 11 trading days till date and Nifty made a decent close above the resistance level. The real test for NIFTY is to open above 4556-59 level and should try to pierce the resistance of 4573-71 level in the first hour of the trade. But this can become a solace to bull so that the bears get fear in their spine to short heavily. As a strategy, the Bulls won’t take the Nifty to new highs in this run as that move could put more loads to carry the cost of buying at higher levels. So Nifty likely to retrace to 4380 level and provide excellent buying opportunities to investors.
the First posting Doubled!
Buy" SALORA INTERNATIONAL" - stock to double in six months. I HAVE POSTED ON 25th APRIL AS A TOKEN POSTING WHEN I FIRST DECIDED TO PUBLISH MY STUDY IN A BLOG. Once again I request the viewers to post their experiences and suggestions through " comments". All of us carry various experinces while taking investment decisions in the market that can be very useful to the others.
Consolidation or Distribution
As posted earlier on 20-07-07, the UNITECH will be included in the Nifty replacing IPCL. In my earlier posts suggested to buy DLF….As suggested, those who are long in DLF above 603 may book profits and re-enter at 618 level. In future it is very likely that the Relcap will be included replacing MTNL or VSNL.
As posted yesterday, the RIL traded above 1996 but the Nifty could not hold above 4509. As suggested in the morning post, the RCOM got resistance at 548 and Bharti at 855.
The markets are just floating around 4486-4525 levels and the mid caps are running fast than their piers. The markets likely to correct incase it fails to move 4525 with in two trading sessions. There are signs of economy slowing down and the external influences put pressure on the rise.
As posted yesterday, the RIL traded above 1996 but the Nifty could not hold above 4509. As suggested in the morning post, the RCOM got resistance at 548 and Bharti at 855.
The markets are just floating around 4486-4525 levels and the mid caps are running fast than their piers. The markets likely to correct incase it fails to move 4525 with in two trading sessions. There are signs of economy slowing down and the external influences put pressure on the rise.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Mixed across…
The markets are waiting for the Fed rate cut and boost to financial markets in US. The markets in INDIA are strong but we are integrated with world economy. So we rise every time on a given opportunity as well we bow to the external pressures.
The Nifty is strong so long it trades above 4461 and the RIL trades above 1961. Unless ONGC trades above 845, the Nifty cannot cross the new high.
In case Nifty trades above 4509 and the RIL trades above 1996, then the market is strong other wise the Nifty will touch 4439 level. The RCOM, RIL, Bharti are weak likely to bring the Nifty to lower levels. RIL has resistance at 1996-98 level, RCOM at 546-48 and Bharti at 856-53 level.
The Nifty is strong above 4486-89 level and there could be some short covering in techs to bring higher levels for more shorts to happen. Don’t buy techs unless Infy trades above 1925, Satyam above 463, TCS above 1083, Wipro above 483-85 levels.
The Nifty is strong so long it trades above 4461 and the RIL trades above 1961. Unless ONGC trades above 845, the Nifty cannot cross the new high.
In case Nifty trades above 4509 and the RIL trades above 1996, then the market is strong other wise the Nifty will touch 4439 level. The RCOM, RIL, Bharti are weak likely to bring the Nifty to lower levels. RIL has resistance at 1996-98 level, RCOM at 546-48 and Bharti at 856-53 level.
The Nifty is strong above 4486-89 level and there could be some short covering in techs to bring higher levels for more shorts to happen. Don’t buy techs unless Infy trades above 1925, Satyam above 463, TCS above 1083, Wipro above 483-85 levels.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
No violation either……
As posted, the markets opened above 4526 in the opening and the resistance on the high could not be crossed but at the end got support at 4486 level.
The RIL could touch 2008+ but failed to hold above 1993-91 level. The mid cap gainers are more than the frontline stocks to move the index. The tata steel made an excellent move above 693 to touch 711+. The smaller banks are favoured than the top tier. The ONGC, Bharti and RCOM non-cooperation put pressure on the index to hold on the opening levels. The SBI’s south journey coupled with ONGC, RCOM, Bharti and the darling draggers of the Nifty (techs) spoiled the bulls enthusiasm.
The RIL could touch 2008+ but failed to hold above 1993-91 level. The mid cap gainers are more than the frontline stocks to move the index. The tata steel made an excellent move above 693 to touch 711+. The smaller banks are favoured than the top tier. The ONGC, Bharti and RCOM non-cooperation put pressure on the index to hold on the opening levels. The SBI’s south journey coupled with ONGC, RCOM, Bharti and the darling draggers of the Nifty (techs) spoiled the bulls enthusiasm.
Monday, September 10, 2007
This move made to move-up ….
The Nifty got support at the 4453 level as it was earlier also tested on Monday, 3rd Sep.
The bulls are successful in forcing the bears to cover their shorts made in the heavy weights like RIL, SBI, Tata Steel, Sail, ITC and RPL along with Longs supports in the power lot.
The real test for the bulls lies in carrying the move forward from tomorrow, as there would an extra pressure on their shoulders to lure the bears and retail investors to take positions. The weak point is RIL could not comfortably trade above 1989-91 level and SBI above 1649-51 level.
The Nifty has to cross 4526 in the early morning with “Gap up trade” and should cross the high of 4549-4553 with low above 4486. To satisfy the above condition ONGC and Bharti and RCOM shall trade in positive with 1-2% gains.
The bulls are successful in forcing the bears to cover their shorts made in the heavy weights like RIL, SBI, Tata Steel, Sail, ITC and RPL along with Longs supports in the power lot.
The real test for the bulls lies in carrying the move forward from tomorrow, as there would an extra pressure on their shoulders to lure the bears and retail investors to take positions. The weak point is RIL could not comfortably trade above 1989-91 level and SBI above 1649-51 level.
The Nifty has to cross 4526 in the early morning with “Gap up trade” and should cross the high of 4549-4553 with low above 4486. To satisfy the above condition ONGC and Bharti and RCOM shall trade in positive with 1-2% gains.
Blame us or US….
The crisis unfolding on many fronts in US, this times the “Job Data”. Now the crisis of crude hanging at $75-76 could shoot out beyond $85 per barrel. The decoupling with international market all the time is not possible but this fall is expected even there were good global cues.
As posted on Friday, the Nifty started its downward move once the big boy RIL closed at 1963. The Nifty could test 4331-35 ranges in this week as the threats due to the 11th September challenge to US and the fears emerge due to the terrorist warnings. Don’t get panic even if the Nifty touches 4280 level or even 4228-26 range in pressure. The best buying opportunities emerge at such levels.
The Nifty could get support at 4222-26 level as the first primary support. The RIL gets support at 1936-35 level. SBI gets support at 1563-59 level and RCOM get support at 520 level and at 506-08. The Tata Steel has support at 661-59 level and Sail support at 158-59 level.
The fall is a threat to traders and an opportunity to investors. So this time don’t forget take delivery of IDBI at 118-119 level, Ranbaxy at 376-72, ITC at 163-61, HUL at 203-199 and NTPC at 163-61 level. The long term players can take this fall to invest in Wipro, Sterlite, DLF, Jet, Tata Motors, M&M, Idea, Bharti and RCOM- could give decent returns for those whose doesn't churn very time.
As posted on Friday, the Nifty started its downward move once the big boy RIL closed at 1963. The Nifty could test 4331-35 ranges in this week as the threats due to the 11th September challenge to US and the fears emerge due to the terrorist warnings. Don’t get panic even if the Nifty touches 4280 level or even 4228-26 range in pressure. The best buying opportunities emerge at such levels.
The Nifty could get support at 4222-26 level as the first primary support. The RIL gets support at 1936-35 level. SBI gets support at 1563-59 level and RCOM get support at 520 level and at 506-08. The Tata Steel has support at 661-59 level and Sail support at 158-59 level.
The fall is a threat to traders and an opportunity to investors. So this time don’t forget take delivery of IDBI at 118-119 level, Ranbaxy at 376-72, ITC at 163-61, HUL at 203-199 and NTPC at 163-61 level. The long term players can take this fall to invest in Wipro, Sterlite, DLF, Jet, Tata Motors, M&M, Idea, Bharti and RCOM- could give decent returns for those whose doesn't churn very time.
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