The markets yesterday displayed a decent rally with the support from the reliance and ADAG group stocks. The evening happiness short lived when the Europe closed. The US markets slump dragged the Asian indices down in line with the rest. The spill over effect spoiled the party but the damage is less as we yesterday added nearly 7-10% in important stocks.
The Nifty is struggling to stay above 2830 level was short lived. Now the bottoms for the last 5 trading sessions were at 2701-2750 level. This will be a good formation if Nifty could cross the 2950 level with global cues then we may head for 3600 level for sure. The disappointing happenings are surrounded the markets and will be forced to live in the hostile environment for next two quarters for sure as the new govt. after election will take time to settle down. In case a hung with no clear majority can dampen the sentiment.
Now the market buzz is that the RIL and ADAG fight for gas will end out of court settlement may improve the sentiment, which can easily set the Nifty above 3180 level.
The Nifty is to close above 2790 level to mitigate the negative news effect and rely on the future growth prospects.
The yesterday leader Reliance, today also saved Nifty from collapse despite the selling pressure. The tech giant Infosys took support at 1220 level bounced to cross 1260 level can save Nifty if it can stay above 1280-85 level. The Bharti and HUL took the Bear beating may loose some more ground before a bounce is expected. The TCS results are not spectacular but may stay above 506 level due to new orders.
The metals and the Banking sector are facing difficult time to protect their valuations. The positive point is that these will find buyers as bargain hunting making profitable.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Challenge for market…..
The emerging markets like India are in the nascent stage of accepting big blows and shallow market depth to absorb the Selling or Buying may cripple the strength stock markets. But the positive side of the market is a new trend is developing as “Chase for Quality”- nothing but dependable and sustainable corporate governance along with earnings.
This “CHANGE” in the paradigm to explore quality stocks may bring volatility and relaying on MNC stocks will emerge apart from supporting the proven established Corporate Houses. The quality IT stocks may get more business and the promoter worthiness will bring business and valuation as premium.
The Nifty is at the cross roads as it could face the slaughtering by Bears with various rumors. The Nifty fell from 3150 level to 2810 level due to Satyam fiasco and doubting the other published high rise accounts. The Nifty has to cross 2950 level to mitigate the damage done. The bottom fishing is good for MNC stocks to get advantage of a feel good factors circulating as if they are more sagacious and unadulterated.
The RIL is very weak and good above 1221-23 level but bundled with resistance points as scales up, immediate major resistance at 1245-51 level. The ONGC is good above 695-97 level but has support at 646-51level The ICICI bank has no tags attached to this Satyam tale but the exposure to credit cards and advances were not disclosed yet. The stock enjoys criticism and controversies corner it now and then is good above 485 level but the resistance may come at 497-98 level. Incase the low breaches 434 and close below 439 then it will face the blistered Bear beating. The SBI is good above 1275 and weak below 1240 level. The Relcap is good above 528-36 level as the Nifty inclusion is w.e.f-12th Jan.
The sudden weakness a head of this mess saved Bharti bounced back to 640 level from 610 region to save Nifty could find buyers above 658-661 level other wise the story is no different. The RCOM is good above 208 and weak bellow 195.
The DLF signals to all Bears are clear as the Buy back corned them could save if it trades above 205-203 level and the ardent Bears sell below 195. The FII are exiting the infra and construction stocks may weaken the market and it will hurt the sentiment.
There is every possibility that the GOI may come with more stringent Corporate Governance laws and powers to Independent Directors along with responsibilities.
This “CHANGE” in the paradigm to explore quality stocks may bring volatility and relaying on MNC stocks will emerge apart from supporting the proven established Corporate Houses. The quality IT stocks may get more business and the promoter worthiness will bring business and valuation as premium.
The Nifty is at the cross roads as it could face the slaughtering by Bears with various rumors. The Nifty fell from 3150 level to 2810 level due to Satyam fiasco and doubting the other published high rise accounts. The Nifty has to cross 2950 level to mitigate the damage done. The bottom fishing is good for MNC stocks to get advantage of a feel good factors circulating as if they are more sagacious and unadulterated.
The RIL is very weak and good above 1221-23 level but bundled with resistance points as scales up, immediate major resistance at 1245-51 level. The ONGC is good above 695-97 level but has support at 646-51level The ICICI bank has no tags attached to this Satyam tale but the exposure to credit cards and advances were not disclosed yet. The stock enjoys criticism and controversies corner it now and then is good above 485 level but the resistance may come at 497-98 level. Incase the low breaches 434 and close below 439 then it will face the blistered Bear beating. The SBI is good above 1275 and weak below 1240 level. The Relcap is good above 528-36 level as the Nifty inclusion is w.e.f-12th Jan.
The sudden weakness a head of this mess saved Bharti bounced back to 640 level from 610 region to save Nifty could find buyers above 658-661 level other wise the story is no different. The RCOM is good above 208 and weak bellow 195.
The DLF signals to all Bears are clear as the Buy back corned them could save if it trades above 205-203 level and the ardent Bears sell below 195. The FII are exiting the infra and construction stocks may weaken the market and it will hurt the sentiment.
There is every possibility that the GOI may come with more stringent Corporate Governance laws and powers to Independent Directors along with responsibilities.
An article in the Business-Standard covered as……
Merrill, IL&FS sold shares in nick of time
BS Reporter / Mumbai January 11, 2009, 0:41 IST
Days before B Ramalinga Raju admitted to fraud, a handful of financial
services companies, including DSP Merrill Lynch, IL&FS Financial Services
and Deutsche Bank’s non-banking finance company, sold Satyam Computer Services
shares pledged with them. IL&FS Trust Company, which was warehousing them on behalf of the lenders, permitted the lenders to sell the shares.
According to information available from the National Stock Exchange, IL&FS Trust
Company sold 14.89 million shares between December 24 and January 2. On December 24, 2008, IL&FS Trust Company permitted sale of 6.05 million shares at Rs 120.09 each, while another 4.41 million shares were sold at Rs 139.83 five days
later. The trust let go of a further 4.43 million shares at Rs 176 on January 2,
2009 – five days before Raju’s revelations……………………
Challenge for market…..
The nascent stage of accepting big blows and shallow market depth to absorb the Selling or Buying may cripple the strength Indian stock market. But the positive side of the market is a new trend is developing as “Chase for Quality” nothing but dependable and sustainable corporate governance along with earnings.
This “CHANGE” in the paradigm to explore quality stocks may bring volatility and relaying on MNC stocks will emerge apart from supporting the proven established Corporate Houses. The quality IT stocks may get more business and the promoter worthiness will bring business and valuation as premium.
The Nifty is at the cross roads as it could face the slaughtering by Bears with various rumors. The Nifty fell from 3150 level to 2810 level due to Satyam fiasco and doubting the other published high rise accounts. The Nifty has to cross 2950 level to mitigate the damage done. The bottom fishing is good for MNC stocks to get advantage of a feel good factors circulating as if they are more sagacious and unadulterated.
The RIL is very weak and good above 1221-23 level but bundled with resistance points as scales up, immediate major resistance at 1245-51 level. The ONGC is good above 695-97 level but has support at 646-51level
The ICICI bank has no tags attached to this Satyam tale but the exposure to credit cards and advances were not disclosed yet. The stock enjoys criticism and controversies corner it now and then is good above 485 level but the resistance may come at 497-98 level. Incase the low breaches 434 and close below 439 then it will face the blistered Bear beating. The SBI is good above 1275 and weak below 1240 level. The Relcap is good above 528-36 level as the Nifty inclusion is w.e.f-12th Jan.
The sudden weakness a head of this mess saved Bharti bounced back to 640 level from 610 region to save Nifty could find buyers above 658-661 level other wise the story is no different. The RCOM is good above 208 and weak bellow 195.
The DLF signals to all Bears are clear as the Buy back corned them could save if it trades above 205-203 level and the ardent Bears sell below 195.
The FII are exiting the infra and construction stocks may weaken the market and it will hurt the sentiment. There is every possibility that the GOI may come with more stringent Corporate Governance laws and powers to Independent Directors along with responsibilities.
An article in the Business-Standard covered as……
Merrill, IL&FS sold shares in nick of time
BS Reporter / Mumbai January 11, 2009, 0:41 IST
Days before B Ramalinga Raju admitted to fraud, a handful of financial services companies, including DSP Merrill Lynch, IL&FS Financial Services and Deutsche Bank’s non-banking finance company, sold Satyam Computer Services shares pledged with them.
IL&FS Trust Company, which was warehousing them on behalf of the lenders, permitted the lenders to sell the shares.
According to information available from the National Stock Exchange, IL&FS Trust Company sold 14.89 million shares between December 24 and January 2. On December 24, 2008, IL&FS Trust Company permitted sale of 6.05 million shares at Rs 120.09 each, while another 4.41 million shares were sold at Rs 139.83 five days later. The trust let go of a further 4.43 million shares at Rs 176 on January 2, 2009 – five days before Raju’s revelations……………………
An article in the Business-Standard covered as……
Merrill, IL&FS sold shares in nick of time
BS Reporter / Mumbai January 11, 2009, 0:41 IST
Days before B Ramalinga Raju admitted to fraud, a handful of financial services companies, including DSP Merrill Lynch, IL&FS Financial Services and Deutsche Bank’s non-banking finance company, sold Satyam Computer Services shares pledged with them.
IL&FS Trust Company, which was warehousing them on behalf of the lenders, permitted the lenders to sell the shares.
According to information available from the National Stock Exchange, IL&FS Trust Company sold 14.89 million shares between December 24 and January 2. On December 24, 2008, IL&FS Trust Company permitted sale of 6.05 million shares at Rs 120.09 each, while another 4.41 million shares were sold at Rs 139.83 five days later. The trust let go of a further 4.43 million shares at Rs 176 on January 2, 2009 – five days before Raju’s revelations……………………
Saturday, January 10, 2009
May happen again…..
The IT industry is grappling with difficult economic environment due to it over dependence on US and Europe was forcibly thrown into more troubled waters due to Satyam fiasco. The Corporate IT tycoons of first generation shying with ignominy due to this episode and their survival will be more difficult with checks and balances.
None acted with responsibility-The company regulators, top level “lapse of vigilance” at the Foreign Exchange inflow, the lending Banks, the leeway handling of accounts by the PWC and above all the analysts of FII, DII & MF heads with mindless heads made Ramalinga Raju to ditch his company and share holders.
The greed & power to rule the corporate sector putting pressure to “perform by any means” is fast spreading to the developing countries. These kinds of manipulation are very common in DevelopeD countries how ever strict there are aftermath. Here this case is only a sample of the lot in the making and many more will be un-earthed once the graveyard is open for excavation.
The kind of financial irregularities happened at Satyam may happen in other first generation companies if the regulators lay their hands and meticulous eyes to nab the “white-collar crime” culprits. The style of publishing inflated numbers in the balance sheet shall be scrutinized thoroughly and put them behind bars to send a strong message not necessarily to the rest of the world but to these “Financial Vultures” not only eat their birth child company but also cripple the nation’s image and economy.
On Friday the Infra & reality stocks tumbled were finding difficult to trace the bottom as the slide is so massive that no body could understand what happened to who but the whole trauma of buyers was shifted in minutes to sellers when the management of DLF “buy back” was heavily initiated. The stock fell on rumors that the CFO sold more than one lakh shares, like a snow avalanche slide the DLF fell from 225 to 144 and bounced with vengeance to again 220-25 level. The DLF was bought by the promoters to a tune of 17.5 lakh shares at an average price of Rs 193.40 and the total shares bought till date is only 21.4 lakhs.
The Satyam promoters could sell their shares by pledging with IL &FS and others much above 150 per share as the Satyam shares were sold more than 2.14 crore shares when the average price is above 175 by the lenders intimated to Exchanges on 2nd Jan, 1.029 crores of shares sold and intimated to NSE on 6th Jan and again 85.3 lakh share sold and intimated on 8th Jan-09. The poor investors hoping some miracle will happen and turn their fortune are still holding by praying the almighty. The people who burned their energy to build the empire for intelligent master mind rouge are left to their fate called 50,000+ employees looking for help/ recognition for their abilities and service.
The employees who sensed the fall sold their shares- on 22-12-2008 Manisha Mehta-5200, V. Murali-10,000, A.S.Murty-19000, V. Murali-20,000; on 17-12-2008 M.SriRam-1000, A.S.Murty-21,000. On 16-12-2008 Satyam announced the Board decision of buying Maytas.
None acted with responsibility-The company regulators, top level “lapse of vigilance” at the Foreign Exchange inflow, the lending Banks, the leeway handling of accounts by the PWC and above all the analysts of FII, DII & MF heads with mindless heads made Ramalinga Raju to ditch his company and share holders.
The greed & power to rule the corporate sector putting pressure to “perform by any means” is fast spreading to the developing countries. These kinds of manipulation are very common in DevelopeD countries how ever strict there are aftermath. Here this case is only a sample of the lot in the making and many more will be un-earthed once the graveyard is open for excavation.
The kind of financial irregularities happened at Satyam may happen in other first generation companies if the regulators lay their hands and meticulous eyes to nab the “white-collar crime” culprits. The style of publishing inflated numbers in the balance sheet shall be scrutinized thoroughly and put them behind bars to send a strong message not necessarily to the rest of the world but to these “Financial Vultures” not only eat their birth child company but also cripple the nation’s image and economy.
On Friday the Infra & reality stocks tumbled were finding difficult to trace the bottom as the slide is so massive that no body could understand what happened to who but the whole trauma of buyers was shifted in minutes to sellers when the management of DLF “buy back” was heavily initiated. The stock fell on rumors that the CFO sold more than one lakh shares, like a snow avalanche slide the DLF fell from 225 to 144 and bounced with vengeance to again 220-25 level. The DLF was bought by the promoters to a tune of 17.5 lakh shares at an average price of Rs 193.40 and the total shares bought till date is only 21.4 lakhs.
The Satyam promoters could sell their shares by pledging with IL &FS and others much above 150 per share as the Satyam shares were sold more than 2.14 crore shares when the average price is above 175 by the lenders intimated to Exchanges on 2nd Jan, 1.029 crores of shares sold and intimated to NSE on 6th Jan and again 85.3 lakh share sold and intimated on 8th Jan-09. The poor investors hoping some miracle will happen and turn their fortune are still holding by praying the almighty. The people who burned their energy to build the empire for intelligent master mind rouge are left to their fate called 50,000+ employees looking for help/ recognition for their abilities and service.
The employees who sensed the fall sold their shares- on 22-12-2008 Manisha Mehta-5200, V. Murali-10,000, A.S.Murty-19000, V. Murali-20,000; on 17-12-2008 M.SriRam-1000, A.S.Murty-21,000. On 16-12-2008 Satyam announced the Board decision of buying Maytas.
Thursday, January 08, 2009
THE UNANSWERED…………
The New CEO Ram has everything but no to that matters most- “The Information”.
The markets shall face the "test of the depth" to face the selling pressure incase it unwarranted. The stock markets across the globe live in a hostile situation where “The analyst gives wrong calls, the auditors certify any thing for a fee, the promoters publish cooked results and deviated misinformation’s, the fund houses buy with vision of “associations developed” in the nights but the poor retail investor invests the hard earnings for a lifeline of future. At the end of the day the retail investor looses every thing for a toss.
The markets shall face the "test of the depth" to face the selling pressure incase it unwarranted. The stock markets across the globe live in a hostile situation where “The analyst gives wrong calls, the auditors certify any thing for a fee, the promoters publish cooked results and deviated misinformation’s, the fund houses buy with vision of “associations developed” in the nights but the poor retail investor invests the hard earnings for a lifeline of future. At the end of the day the retail investor looses every thing for a toss.
QUESTIONS ???????.........
The unanswered questions are opening in Satyam saga as flood water falls from the dam once the gates are opened for free flow.
The markets were stunned by the financial scandal at Satyam and were surprised to accept the truth of “ALL LIES” by Raju.
The market fell heavily as the built up open position was huge that to in the absence of FII holiday it was built to hand over at higher prices was belied due to the un-expected fiasco at Satyam. The important FII investors resorted for selling at the day’s low price fore tells that they are serious to sell INDIA. The experts are revealing that there are more companies to be micro-scoped for facts rather than accepting.
In case Nifty fails to cross 2957-60 and the low breaches 2812-16 level, then the serious consequences are built in the system. The big names of Indian industry will be doubted for sure and their current valuations will be corrected accordingly.
The markets were stunned by the financial scandal at Satyam and were surprised to accept the truth of “ALL LIES” by Raju.
The market fell heavily as the built up open position was huge that to in the absence of FII holiday it was built to hand over at higher prices was belied due to the un-expected fiasco at Satyam. The important FII investors resorted for selling at the day’s low price fore tells that they are serious to sell INDIA. The experts are revealing that there are more companies to be micro-scoped for facts rather than accepting.
In case Nifty fails to cross 2957-60 and the low breaches 2812-16 level, then the serious consequences are built in the system. The big names of Indian industry will be doubted for sure and their current valuations will be corrected accordingly.
….The markets are enjoying the short covering support above 3080 level. The
earlier suggested levels for ICICI Bank and Relcap were archived but the up move
could be a result of short covering. Now the markets are in bull grip as the
momentum was not dried to fall. The Nifty is good above 3100 level and RIL god
above 1329-31 level. The SBI is good above 1350 and weak below 1330-26 level.
The sudden change in the direction of Bharti to 650 level from its 720 level
despite the 24.41 lakh shares acquiring by Indian Continent Investment Ltd in an
off market deal. In case Bharti falls below 610 then a serious correction of
20-25% on the cards. The NTPC, ONGC, ITC, Bharti, and Cipla are likely to lead
the fall incase Nifty closes below 3030 level.
…..The SBI, ONGC, Bharti and Reliance are becoming weak but just moving up with unease. The Infosys results and the fiasco of Satyam can impact the sentiment. The Reliance is good above and can touch 1330-1350 range but the resistance at 1372 is crucial.The ONGC is one of the weakest face resistances at 693-97 level and at 717-20 level.The SBI is the best chart to observe has resistance at 1380-83 level but has good support at 1218-22 level. The Bharti is being in the accumulation phase. The
well drawn boundaries for it are 749 at the higher side and the 650-60 level is
at the lower-side. The DLF made a second trial to stay above 305 but the real
test it faces at 326-30 level but a clear bottom building is happening at 220-16
level. The immediate support level existed at 260-66 level. In view of the RCOM
plans and the future 3G auction it built a bottom at 187-93 level and the second
level in the process at 221-226.
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
The cemented move…
There was no change in the economic out look of the globe or any country in specific but the stocks are moving North. It is the beauty of the markets that it behaves in style and unique. For those who argue the ticker will be side lined to curse the fate or to make a point of discussion but the ticker will journey the designed course irrespective of the tag that was attached “bear market rally/huge short covering/ bull market in the making”.
The slow economic growth was not fully discounted across the globe. The Indian markets were no exception but the rally triggered after the expiry will take Nifty to 3280 level because of the crude hardening. The rise crude prices will strengthen the RIL, ONGC and RPL. The RIL may start production of KG basin resources.
The readers might have observed the Cement companies move that benefited the most in the Stimulus package-2. The markets are enjoying the short covering support above 3080 level. The earlier suggested levels for ICICI Bank and Relcap were achied but the up move could be a result of short covering.
Now the markets are in bull grip as the momentum was not dried to fall. The Nifty is good above 3100 level and RIL god above 1329-31 level. The SBI is good above 1350 and weak below 1330-26 level. The sudden change in the direction of Bharti to 650 level from its 720 level despite the 24.41 lakh shares acquiring by Indian Continent Investment Ltd in an off market deal. In case Bharti falls below 610 then a serios correction of 20-25% on the cards. The NTPC, ONGC, ITC, Bharti, and Cipla are likely to lead the fall incase Nifty closes below 3030 level.
The slow economic growth was not fully discounted across the globe. The Indian markets were no exception but the rally triggered after the expiry will take Nifty to 3280 level because of the crude hardening. The rise crude prices will strengthen the RIL, ONGC and RPL. The RIL may start production of KG basin resources.
The readers might have observed the Cement companies move that benefited the most in the Stimulus package-2. The markets are enjoying the short covering support above 3080 level. The earlier suggested levels for ICICI Bank and Relcap were achied but the up move could be a result of short covering.
Now the markets are in bull grip as the momentum was not dried to fall. The Nifty is good above 3100 level and RIL god above 1329-31 level. The SBI is good above 1350 and weak below 1330-26 level. The sudden change in the direction of Bharti to 650 level from its 720 level despite the 24.41 lakh shares acquiring by Indian Continent Investment Ltd in an off market deal. In case Bharti falls below 610 then a serios correction of 20-25% on the cards. The NTPC, ONGC, ITC, Bharti, and Cipla are likely to lead the fall incase Nifty closes below 3030 level.
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
The test of stimulation…..
The test of stimulation…..
Due to net failure at my end failed to publish but for record now….
The Nifty is good above 2860 and likely to stay above for some time. The immediate bad news is remote and the positive news keep flowing till the Nifty crosses 3250 and touch 3280 for stop-losses get triggered to clear the weak hands. In case the markets doesn’t find the required bottom push to scale up but still not weak for a free fall as the expectations from Obama is high. So the markets will swing between
2700-3100 to the weak results show and hopes of miracles from the future.
The local news will be adverse as the Govt. is preparing to put pressure on the PAK and their counter “war drama”. The PM will be busy in tackling the external/curbing terrorism could put the economic reforms on the backburner. The political equations will start demanding the “time & attention” as the April-May may heats up the capital.The SBI, ONGC, Bharti and Reliance are becoming weak but just moving up with unease. The Infosys results and the fiasco of Satyam can impact the sentiment.The Reliance is good above and can touch 1330-1350 range but the resistance at 1372 is crucial. The ONGC is one of the
weakest face resistances at 693-97 level and at 717-20 level.
The SBI is the best chart to observe has resistance at 1380-83 level but has good support at 1218-22 level.
The Bharti is being in the accumulation phase. The well drawn
boundaries for it are 749 at the higher side and the 650-60 level is at the
lower-side.The DLF made a second trial to stay above 305 but the real test it faces at 326-30 level but a clear bottom building is happening at 220-16 level. The immediate support level existed at 260-66 level.
In view of the RCOM plans and the future 3G auction it built a bottom at 187-93 level and the second level in the process at 221-226.
Sunday, January 04, 2009
The challenge ahead…..
The govt. announced stimulus package-2 was short of satisfaction as there was more room left to do and the govt. announced that the doors were closed for now till the new financial accounting year begins. So the domestic financial and major policy measures are announced except the 3G auction. The international news and the global indices will be in the drivers’ seat as the new govt. in US will determine the next course of action.
The RBI announced policy measures will carry a positive start on Monday unless the Asian markets open deep in red. The banking sector has been waiting and the rates cuts were already factored in the bank stocks. This can be seen as the HDFC has failed to cross the resistance at 1560 level and the SBI took long time to trade above 1335-39 level. The reality sector though raised on big hopes were belied as the 20 lakh bracket was not raised to 30 lakhs is a big set back as the demand and profitability was in and above that 30 lakhs. The Monday trades can change the direction but for now the banks may look South.
The package has unilaterally given benefit to cement companies and to the logistic sector that can afford to buy. The IIFCL will spur the demand but not immediately. The IDFC and PFC are cautious on the demand as the industry is not jubilant to spend on BOLT projects.
The duty cuts on steel products have negative impact on the sagging industry. The reality sector that uses longs gets the benefit and will form a cap on raising the prices due to demand revival by the steel industry.
The overall balancing act by the Govt. will keep the Nifty crawling but not a break-out shoot up with this stimulus and monetary measures.
The RBI announced policy measures will carry a positive start on Monday unless the Asian markets open deep in red. The banking sector has been waiting and the rates cuts were already factored in the bank stocks. This can be seen as the HDFC has failed to cross the resistance at 1560 level and the SBI took long time to trade above 1335-39 level. The reality sector though raised on big hopes were belied as the 20 lakh bracket was not raised to 30 lakhs is a big set back as the demand and profitability was in and above that 30 lakhs. The Monday trades can change the direction but for now the banks may look South.
The package has unilaterally given benefit to cement companies and to the logistic sector that can afford to buy. The IIFCL will spur the demand but not immediately. The IDFC and PFC are cautious on the demand as the industry is not jubilant to spend on BOLT projects.
The duty cuts on steel products have negative impact on the sagging industry. The reality sector that uses longs gets the benefit and will form a cap on raising the prices due to demand revival by the steel industry.
The overall balancing act by the Govt. will keep the Nifty crawling but not a break-out shoot up with this stimulus and monetary measures.
The stimulus too…
The govt. announced stimulus package-2 has also failed to lure the industry, so will be the market. The Govt. is looking for a long-term sustainable action where as the markets are interested in immediate benefits to see the sentiment revived. The strong hands are interested in long gestation period of rise with intermittent sharp rally where the reverse is true with the small investor.
The RBI announced a rate cut of 50 bps in CRR and 100bps for Repo and Reverse Repo to release nearly 20,000 crores in to the system. The GOI simultaneously announced liberalized ECB norms that can benefit the big reality players and some measures in customs duty to curb the free flow of cement from the neighboring countries. This will benefit the cement companies those were strapped to a fixed price for more than 2½ years. This will have a counter effect on the construction companies already surviving on thin margins were given credit but not the profits.
The real worry for now to next 3 quarters is the demand contraction. The seriousness of economic worries will hit the head lines when the demand contraction in the domestic markets face. The Indian economy is growing on the export fillip despite a large domestic demand existing. Now the challenge is that the exports will be seriously getting affected days to come and the supply glut will impact the purchasing interest of the consumer.
The net-net the Indian economy will see troubled months a head but this period can be considered as a “capacity building opportunity” by the big industry houses.
The RBI announced a rate cut of 50 bps in CRR and 100bps for Repo and Reverse Repo to release nearly 20,000 crores in to the system. The GOI simultaneously announced liberalized ECB norms that can benefit the big reality players and some measures in customs duty to curb the free flow of cement from the neighboring countries. This will benefit the cement companies those were strapped to a fixed price for more than 2½ years. This will have a counter effect on the construction companies already surviving on thin margins were given credit but not the profits.
The real worry for now to next 3 quarters is the demand contraction. The seriousness of economic worries will hit the head lines when the demand contraction in the domestic markets face. The Indian economy is growing on the export fillip despite a large domestic demand existing. Now the challenge is that the exports will be seriously getting affected days to come and the supply glut will impact the purchasing interest of the consumer.
The net-net the Indian economy will see troubled months a head but this period can be considered as a “capacity building opportunity” by the big industry houses.
The stimulus too…
The govt. announced stimulus package-2 has also failed to lure the industry, so will be the market. The Govt. is looking for a long-term sustainable action where as the markets are interested in immediate benefits to see the sentiment revived. The strong hands are interested in long gestation period of rise with intermittent sharp rally where the reverse is true with the small investor.
The RBI announced a rate cut of 50 bps in CRR and 100bps for Repo and Reverse Repo to release nearly 20,000 crores in to the system. The GOI simultaneously announced liberalized ECB norms that can benefit the big reality players and some measures in customs duty to curb the free flow of cement from the neighboring countries. This will benefit the cement companies those were strapped to a fixed price for more than 2½ years. This will have a counter effect on the construction companies already surviving on thin margins were given credit but not the profits.
The real worry for now to next 3 quarters is the demand contraction. The seriousness of economic worries will hit the head lines when the demand contraction in the domestic markets face. The Indian economy is growing on the export fillip despite a large domestic demand existing. Now the challenge is that the exports will be seriously getting affected days to come and the supply glut will impact the purchasing interest of the consumer.
The net-net the Indian economy will see troubled months a head but this period can be considered as a “capacity building opportunity” by the big industry houses.
Thursday, January 01, 2009
HAPPY NEW YEAR
Wish You Happy and Prosperous NEW YEAR - 2009
"THE NEW YEAR WILL BRING WEALTH, HEALTH & PEACE TO EVERY ONE"
B.NAGESWARA RAO
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
The strength gained….
As posted in the morning the Nifty took support at 2899 crossed the resistance of 2983-86 and registered a high of 2999 but closed at 2980 level. The SBI registered a low at 1259.60 and the ICICI touched a high at 464.85. The DLF has made a high of 290 level and the Punj was stopped at 148 level.
The ONGC is offer was accepted by the Imperial energy stock holders. The IRDA has allowed more investments by insurance companies in Indian Infra structure projects is a big boost to the firms.
The ONGC is offer was accepted by the Imperial energy stock holders. The IRDA has allowed more investments by insurance companies in Indian Infra structure projects is a big boost to the firms.
Nifty is having good support at 2860 level and the resistance at 2983-86 level.
The Reliance has support at 1220-23 level good so long it trades above 1235 and
in Bulls grip above 1245 level.
The SBI is good above 1256 and will face
resistance at 1297-93 and at 1320 level. The ICICI is shuttling between 403 to
460 level. The stock will cross the resistance and trades above 465 then look
for 525-30 range from where the banks will see steep correction.
The
reality& infra move in the past 10 days has exhausted and the correction put
them in trading range. The DLF is still in Bulls grip but the stock is good
above 293 level and weak below 271. The Punjlloyd took support at 136 level may
face serious resistance at 151-53 level.
The wait and watch ….
The year end move is positive as the markets took support at 2812 level bounced back to cross the resistance at 2930 level but the real challenge is that the markets are facing very strong resistance at this moment at 3030 level. The markets are surviving on low volumes in the frontline counters. The geo-political tensions are easing as the negotiations are heading for a solution as the super power US and the UK are putting pressure on PAK, seems threatened that the economic sanctions could be levied.
The saga of Satyam continued to be brutal bruise to investors especially the retail small investors who put their faith. The planned exit of Raju is most worrying to worrying than the corporate administration.
The Nifty is having good support at 2860 level and the resistance at 2983-86 level. The Reliance has support at 1220-23 level good so long it trades above 1235 and in Bulls grip above 1245 level.
The SBI is good above 1256 and will face resistance at 1297-93 and at 1320 level. The ICICI is shuttling between 403 to 460 level. The stock will cross the resistance and trades above 465 then look for 525-30 range from where the banks will see steep correction.
The reality& infra move in the past 10 days has exhausted and the correction put them in trading range. The DLF is still in Bulls grip but the stock is good above 293 level and weak below 271. The Punjlloyd took support at 136 level may face serious resistance at 151-53 level.
The saga of Satyam continued to be brutal bruise to investors especially the retail small investors who put their faith. The planned exit of Raju is most worrying to worrying than the corporate administration.
The Nifty is having good support at 2860 level and the resistance at 2983-86 level. The Reliance has support at 1220-23 level good so long it trades above 1235 and in Bulls grip above 1245 level.
The SBI is good above 1256 and will face resistance at 1297-93 and at 1320 level. The ICICI is shuttling between 403 to 460 level. The stock will cross the resistance and trades above 465 then look for 525-30 range from where the banks will see steep correction.
The reality& infra move in the past 10 days has exhausted and the correction put them in trading range. The DLF is still in Bulls grip but the stock is good above 293 level and weak below 271. The Punjlloyd took support at 136 level may face serious resistance at 151-53 level.
Thursday, December 25, 2008
MERRY CHRISTMAS….
WISH YOU A HAPPY & CHEERFULL “CHRISTMAS”.
MAY THIS CHRISTMAS BRING WEALTH, HEALTH AND PEACE TO ONE & ALL.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
The security concerns…
Both the countries are equipped with nuclear technology heading for a collision can draw catastrophic results. The efforts of India are yielding results as the international pressures are mounting on Pak Govt. and local political uncertainties are placing that country in a fix.
The strength of markets can be gain when the dark clouds of war ceases. The Nifty is facing resistance at 3100 level but 3030-3026 level holds good for yesterday may be challenged to day because the RIL fell below 1315 support level. The HDFC and HDFC bank are driving south wards. The markets may hold in tight band till the expiry.
The Nifty is good above 3076-79 level which will become a resistance and the support for this day could be at 2961-63 level. The SBI is holding above 1265 is good, DLF is good above 296 and ONGC above 694. In case these trade below their support level and RIL below 1296 level is a clear sign of Bear grip over the markets. The HDFC is weak below 1532 and minor support at 1410-12 level. The HDFC Bank is weak below 1036 level and support at 930-32 level.
The strength of markets can be gain when the dark clouds of war ceases. The Nifty is facing resistance at 3100 level but 3030-3026 level holds good for yesterday may be challenged to day because the RIL fell below 1315 support level. The HDFC and HDFC bank are driving south wards. The markets may hold in tight band till the expiry.
The Nifty is good above 3076-79 level which will become a resistance and the support for this day could be at 2961-63 level. The SBI is holding above 1265 is good, DLF is good above 296 and ONGC above 694. In case these trade below their support level and RIL below 1296 level is a clear sign of Bear grip over the markets. The HDFC is weak below 1532 and minor support at 1410-12 level. The HDFC Bank is weak below 1036 level and support at 930-32 level.
Monday, December 22, 2008
The Air strike ?…
The Air strike by India has become immense importance to curb the terrorist activities of POK based organizations. The wait and watch approach strengthens the extremists. The peace loving nature shall bring friends but this attitude dilutes with the foes, take advantage of the good feeling to weakness. The markets like the move that lights our spirits however strong we argue on the impairments of war to humanity.
The Nifty is loosing momentum as the heavy weights like RIL, ICICI, ONGC and other counters of telecos. The recent momentum counters are Relcap, Rel infra, HUL and DLF hold the value and not good to be trapped by selling.
At this point the markets have good support at 2961-63 level. So the markets are strong for the Bulls and be with them for short period incase RIL cross the resistance at 1415-18 level or shorts built if it trades below 1315-18.
The Nifty is loosing momentum as the heavy weights like RIL, ICICI, ONGC and other counters of telecos. The recent momentum counters are Relcap, Rel infra, HUL and DLF hold the value and not good to be trapped by selling.
At this point the markets have good support at 2961-63 level. So the markets are strong for the Bulls and be with them for short period incase RIL cross the resistance at 1415-18 level or shorts built if it trades below 1315-18.
Saturday, December 20, 2008
The Bears gain strength...
As posted earlier the markets reached a reasonable level from where the Bears take advantage to short the market. The final leg of 100-150 points of Nifty is an advantage to off load the stock to retail investor as the markets are ready to face the slow down numbers more wildly than before. The Inflation is no longer an issue but reviving the staggered investment plans and fear to face the future in the corporate minds is the real challenge. The markets will see the dwindling profit margins and “Put On Hold”- expansion plans, then the markets see….
The fight for survival…..3*12
The day displayed a strong fight for survival of the market at 2650 level.
As posted earlier the high light of the day is the smart recovery of SBI to
close above 1085. The RIL is struggling to gain strength to move up but it displayed a decent fight against the Bears. The ONGC and Bharti were subdued despite good effort by the Banking lot to move up. The star of the day is Tata Steel posted 10% rise with huge volume and the DLF made equal volume with good show to cross the 191-93 resistance.The LIC Housing along and SUN gave above 20% rise in the non index shares is a clear sign of shuffling and choosing the future out performers. The techs lost the sheen due to foreign brokerage house CLSA report dented the growth in share rise, Infosys chopped
down by 4.3% Wipro TCS and Satyam were no exception.The teleco lost value by 3-5% but the autos recovered on short covering. The Banking sector posted decent gains on the hopes of fall in inflation that can force the Central bank to take an early decision on rate cuts. The Nifty is at cross roads and waiting for break out. In case the RIL fails to cross the 1093 level and trades below 1040-35 then the markets will easily touch the 2000-2100 level with out much resistance from Bulls.
The SBI gained but the RIL, ONGC and Bharti are in negative territory with new members from tech sector. The Nifty is weak below 2670-80 level but gain strength above 2705-11 that can fuel fire in Bulls to
trap the Bears to cover their positions. In case BHEL and LT recovers then there was some glimmer of hope in the capital goods and Infrastructure sector that build due to the NHAI announcements.Recovery but weak…..2*12
The markets took the support once it touched the low at 2571
level and it managed to claw back to close at 2657 level a much needed support to Nifty above 2630 level and the weakness in RIL and ONGC is a great concern at this point in time.The Australia cut the lending rates by 100 bps and our top brass discussing for the timing. The stimulus package announced to has some
bearing on Infrastructure companies but the release of funds and the cost that matters a lot at this hour. The SEBI announcement of margin facility to all participants can improve the sentiment as the news flow infavour of Bull can propel the momentum in the Nifty levels back to 2800 levels.In case the resistance at 2750 level crossed with ease, close above 2735-42 will add value to Bulls efforts. The bears will cover the positions as the positive news unfolds as progress progresses and the Nifty may touch again 3280-3300 level with short covering.
The only threatening concern unfolding is the verbal war with neighbours on Mumbai blasts can easily change the direction in case the situation provoked for a war on the terrorist camps.
The RIL has to cross the 1120 level, SBI has to cross the 1085 level and ONGC has to trade above 705level to see the Nifty to scale for new territory above 2860 level.
Friday, December 19, 2008
A classic formation….
The Nifty has made a classic formation in the last 7 trading sessions from 10th to 18th Dec. The 10th, 11th and 12th highs were as 2940, 2945 and 2937. The lows of 16th, 17th and 18th were 2963, 2943 and 2922. I noticed the averages worked out at 2940-42 level which is quite supportive above 2935 level I wrote in my previous posts.
It is evident that the markets likely to cross 3285 level so long it trades above 2930 level. The bull move cannot be negated until Nifty closes below 2860. The same formation is formed with the front line heavy weights.
It is evident that the markets likely to cross 3285 level so long it trades above 2930 level. The bull move cannot be negated until Nifty closes below 2860. The same formation is formed with the front line heavy weights.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
The consolidation…
As suggested yesterday the market took a knock in the last one hour breaking the immediate support at 3010 level to touch 2940 level due to selling in the heavy weights. The markets are now in consolidation mode. The charts suggest that the support may emerge when the Nifty touches 2750 level. Today the support is expected at 286163 level and the resistance at 2993 and at 3011-13 level.
The Reliance is the early morning south runner but could hold the level at 1350 through out the day with 10-15 rupees swing. The higher level above 1390 could be a daunting task for now as the crude is in free fall. The ONGC will also see some knock today.
The HUL rally from 236 level to 256 level is heartening to bulls as the sole warrior survived in this Bears onslaught. Now the ICICI bank may loose some gains made yesterday, become weak below 432-31 level due to the selling pressure in the index counters. The earlier posts suggested good above 429 level holds good once again when it takes a U turn from the support levels at 406 and 393 level. Then the counter may cross the 490 level and could touch 520-25 level without much resistance. The NTPC is at the distribution mode at the higher level may see a correction of 20% from 166 level when it closes below that level.
The story of techs to our blog readers is quite evident and the worst victim of the frustration is Satyam. The bounce from 150 level to 203-05 is good to exit as it has tarnished it good image. The long-term selling is expected unless the company and the top investor come with rescue measures by announcing some important acquisitions above 500 million dollars to keep the earnings stream in tact.
The Reliance is the early morning south runner but could hold the level at 1350 through out the day with 10-15 rupees swing. The higher level above 1390 could be a daunting task for now as the crude is in free fall. The ONGC will also see some knock today.
The HUL rally from 236 level to 256 level is heartening to bulls as the sole warrior survived in this Bears onslaught. Now the ICICI bank may loose some gains made yesterday, become weak below 432-31 level due to the selling pressure in the index counters. The earlier posts suggested good above 429 level holds good once again when it takes a U turn from the support levels at 406 and 393 level. Then the counter may cross the 490 level and could touch 520-25 level without much resistance. The NTPC is at the distribution mode at the higher level may see a correction of 20% from 166 level when it closes below that level.
The story of techs to our blog readers is quite evident and the worst victim of the frustration is Satyam. The bounce from 150 level to 203-05 is good to exit as it has tarnished it good image. The long-term selling is expected unless the company and the top investor come with rescue measures by announcing some important acquisitions above 500 million dollars to keep the earnings stream in tact.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
The Maddoff..Losses...
The troubled assets due Maddoff deal could spill cascading effect as the days pass by. The market is surging to absorb the good news coupled with short covering. The markets are trading above the immediate support level at 2935 well above that level close despite of the momentum in the upwards has reduced considerably.
The positive side of the up move is that the RIL touched the 1395 level well above the 1356 resistance level. The rebound of the ONGC above 694 level cross the resistance above 705 is a favourable sign. The slow down sectors paid much lower advance taxes reflects the slowing growth and business expansion may pull down the indices by 200 points to 2700-2800 level.The advancement of Bharti, NTPC, ITC and HUL will yield to selling pressure apart from the RPL and RIL.
The positive side of the up move is that the RIL touched the 1395 level well above the 1356 resistance level. The rebound of the ONGC above 694 level cross the resistance above 705 is a favourable sign. The slow down sectors paid much lower advance taxes reflects the slowing growth and business expansion may pull down the indices by 200 points to 2700-2800 level.The advancement of Bharti, NTPC, ITC and HUL will yield to selling pressure apart from the RPL and RIL.
Valuable hold above….
As expected the markets are above the important support levels despite the global slump. The Nifty crossed the major resistance of the first upward move and it could hold above that level as suggested in my earlier postings.
The Nifty has support at 2750 and for today it has support at 2861-63 level. The volatility is visible in stocks but the Nifty reduced to a band.
The move came from the weakest is the cause of worry- the Reliance and the RPL taking baton from the Reality pack that emerged star performer due to the package support and interest rate cuts. The RIL is good so long it trades above 1281-76 level both for the stock and for the Nifty. The Nifty may face resistance at 2991-96 level.
The DLF may yield to selling pressure below 278 level, the RELinfra weak below 659-61 level, Relcap is weak below 540 for this day. The banking giant SBI weak below 1220 level and the up move can be expected after it touches 1134 and holds above 1158-61 level. The ICICI bank upper side move resumes once it touches 371-73 level and trades above 406-8.
The Nifty has support at 2750 and for today it has support at 2861-63 level. The volatility is visible in stocks but the Nifty reduced to a band.
The move came from the weakest is the cause of worry- the Reliance and the RPL taking baton from the Reality pack that emerged star performer due to the package support and interest rate cuts. The RIL is good so long it trades above 1281-76 level both for the stock and for the Nifty. The Nifty may face resistance at 2991-96 level.
The DLF may yield to selling pressure below 278 level, the RELinfra weak below 659-61 level, Relcap is weak below 540 for this day. The banking giant SBI weak below 1220 level and the up move can be expected after it touches 1134 and holds above 1158-61 level. The ICICI bank upper side move resumes once it touches 371-73 level and trades above 406-8.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
The rally rallied…….
The markets rallied quite sharply than anticipated and it left no big name lying dormant. The markets took the bad news to get the Bears caught in the wrong foot rallied nearly 250 points from a closing of 2657 to 2928 with in 3 days is quite dramatic but it is a fact of life in the stock market.
The markets poised to close near to positive territory just because of RIL and RPL vibrant move in the late hour forced the rest to cover their loses be it ICICI, Rel Infra, LT, DLF, SBI or the other losers. The telecoms like Bharti and RCOM are moving in positive territory for the last 3-4 days. The Infras especially the housing sector now is betting on affordable houses.
The big news is that the Govt. withdrew the case against RIL and suggesting for a negotiator to settle the issue between the brothers over the gas supply and pricing. This has prompted an up move of 25 % in RNRL and recovery to cross the 1295 hurdle in RIL price.
The markets may find a fresh selling pressure due to the steep rise and the die-hard Bears any way go for an average selling, quite right at this point in time to get out from huge losses built from 2550.
The markets poised to close near to positive territory just because of RIL and RPL vibrant move in the late hour forced the rest to cover their loses be it ICICI, Rel Infra, LT, DLF, SBI or the other losers. The telecoms like Bharti and RCOM are moving in positive territory for the last 3-4 days. The Infras especially the housing sector now is betting on affordable houses.
The big news is that the Govt. withdrew the case against RIL and suggesting for a negotiator to settle the issue between the brothers over the gas supply and pricing. This has prompted an up move of 25 % in RNRL and recovery to cross the 1295 hurdle in RIL price.
The markets may find a fresh selling pressure due to the steep rise and the die-hard Bears any way go for an average selling, quite right at this point in time to get out from huge losses built from 2550.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
The US won’t….
The big brother US won’t give us the opportunity to strike the base camps of the terrorist groups in Pakistan. The close associate of US, Pakistan cannot dare to challenge its big brother’s suggestions and its ability to face our forces also a big question mark. The UPA political mileage plans are confined to preparations only to put pressure on the neighbour.
The markets took the advantage of adverse news to corner the Bears to buy at higher prices. The negative news of possible war, the negative rating of DLF and the other existing uncertainties of economic growth were put into a bundle to corner the Bears. The Nifty staged a decent recovery to cross the resistance at 2935 amidst of bad news flow.
The Nifty took the Bulls support on Friday and they carried the journey by inviting the Bears to make shorts in DLF, UNITECH, HDIL, SUZLON and now they are opened to cover at higher prices. The situation will turn sour incase Nifty drifts below 2760 level for the mounting political tensions or any other reason then it will be disaster like situation on the bourses.
Now the Nifty has to trade above 2835-29 level. The RIL has to trade above 1161-55 level. The laggards now will perform like Relcap which will become strong above 475, ONGC above 685, PunjLlyod above 158-59, Infy above 1220 and Satyam above 236-38 level.
The fall can be expected in HUL below 239, ITC below 168-69 and NTPC below 156-55 if they close below these support levels.
The markets took the advantage of adverse news to corner the Bears to buy at higher prices. The negative news of possible war, the negative rating of DLF and the other existing uncertainties of economic growth were put into a bundle to corner the Bears. The Nifty staged a decent recovery to cross the resistance at 2935 amidst of bad news flow.
The Nifty took the Bulls support on Friday and they carried the journey by inviting the Bears to make shorts in DLF, UNITECH, HDIL, SUZLON and now they are opened to cover at higher prices. The situation will turn sour incase Nifty drifts below 2760 level for the mounting political tensions or any other reason then it will be disaster like situation on the bourses.
Now the Nifty has to trade above 2835-29 level. The RIL has to trade above 1161-55 level. The laggards now will perform like Relcap which will become strong above 475, ONGC above 685, PunjLlyod above 158-59, Infy above 1220 and Satyam above 236-38 level.
The fall can be expected in HUL below 239, ITC below 168-69 and NTPC below 156-55 if they close below these support levels.
The up move …..
The markets missed the yesterday rally in the global markets due to holiday but it is likely that it will adjust by rise by 2-3%.
The majority participants are skeptical about the future prospects due to the sinking economies across the globe and the fearing to bet about the underling growth prospects. At this critical juncture India may not draw much share from the FII investment, to add the terrorist attacks spoiled the early recovery from the lows.
The solid band of 2810-2503-2784 from 14th Nov-08 till date, the markets went no where on points basis but has crated much hope and despair in the minds of Bulls and Bears, the investors are still not conclusive to make a final call. The only positive sign that can be drawn from the above 16 trading sessions is that the markets are in recovery path provided they cross the 2935 resistance.
The markets may open positive and may continue to rise in case the heavy weights float above their support levels as mentioned yesterday. The Nifty has immediate support above 2760 level and can continue to hold the buying till it trades below 2720-2716 level. In case of slide the RIL shall not trade below 1076-73 level and the SBI shall not trade below 1111-06 level. In case of violation of above said conditions then the markets are likely to see selling pressure and Bulls unwinding. The support to reality and infra may hold for some more time.
At 9.40 pm last night I prepared but the posting was not PUBLISHED, still I surprise how it has happened but for record sake I publish now.
The majority participants are skeptical about the future prospects due to the sinking economies across the globe and the fearing to bet about the underling growth prospects. At this critical juncture India may not draw much share from the FII investment, to add the terrorist attacks spoiled the early recovery from the lows.
The solid band of 2810-2503-2784 from 14th Nov-08 till date, the markets went no where on points basis but has crated much hope and despair in the minds of Bulls and Bears, the investors are still not conclusive to make a final call. The only positive sign that can be drawn from the above 16 trading sessions is that the markets are in recovery path provided they cross the 2935 resistance.
The markets may open positive and may continue to rise in case the heavy weights float above their support levels as mentioned yesterday. The Nifty has immediate support above 2760 level and can continue to hold the buying till it trades below 2720-2716 level. In case of slide the RIL shall not trade below 1076-73 level and the SBI shall not trade below 1111-06 level. In case of violation of above said conditions then the markets are likely to see selling pressure and Bulls unwinding. The support to reality and infra may hold for some more time.
At 9.40 pm last night I prepared but the posting was not PUBLISHED, still I surprise how it has happened but for record sake I publish now.
Monday, December 08, 2008
The Global pull but…….
The markets displayed a positive move to cross the resistance but failed to close above 2811-16 level.The Asian markets closed with gain around 5-6% but the Indian markets undergone profit booking.
The decent gains in NTPC, HUL is positive and sell of in ITC is a challenge. The disappointing stock in the banking sector is HDFC bank. I mentioned in my previous post about it’s under performance.
The late hour sell off from 2860 to 2780 level is a bad signal but the good sign is the leaders closed above their support levels, RIL above 1112 level and SBI above 1150 and Bhati made a decent come back to close above 700 level.
The decent gains in NTPC, HUL is positive and sell of in ITC is a challenge. The disappointing stock in the banking sector is HDFC bank. I mentioned in my previous post about it’s under performance.
The late hour sell off from 2860 to 2780 level is a bad signal but the good sign is the leaders closed above their support levels, RIL above 1112 level and SBI above 1150 and Bhati made a decent come back to close above 700 level.
Sunday, December 07, 2008
NOW Fiscal measures………
The Govt. of India has come out with a mini-budget like slew of measure to kick start the economy and the ailing sectors. The auto and the reality sectors are the fore runners of deceleration, put halt to southward journey. The auto sector will enjoy the CENVAT facility, lowered by 4%. The Maruti wanted to pass the full benefit to its coustomers but the others who already announced rate cuts in advance with this anticipation may announce their plans later, adjusting to market forces.
The Govt. planning to spend nearly 20,000 crores of rupees to stimulate the growth above 7%, focusing on infrastructure and core sector spending. To improve the exports, especially the cotton and fabric sector, textiles will get 2% reduction in interest upto Mar-09. The textile sector will get 1400 crores for Technology Upgradation Fund. A 350 crore export intensive scheme and a back up of 350 crores to ECGC (Export Credit Guarantee Corporation) for proving guarantee to exporters. The micro and small industry will get a collateral free lending support upto 1 cr from earlier 50 lakhs.
A special package on loans will be announced by the banks to encourage housing. The large amount of unmet demand for low cost housing will get a boost with the package which will have two categories, one below 50 lakhs and the other one between 5-20 lakhs category. The RBI plans to refinance 4000 cores to National Housing bank (NHB) to spur the growth in low cost housing to the poor. These measures will absorb the expanded capacity of cement and the demand for longs-steel may increase.
The IIFCL- India Infrastructure Finance Company Ltd will raise 10,000 crores via bonds to finance the roads and other Infrastructure projects through Public- Private Partnership (PPP). The plans come through fast in implementation, 60 highway projects likely to get clearance.
The reality and the Infrastructure stocks are likely to get the benefit. The JP associates is good above 67 and likely to reach the 90 range, will become weak below 60-62 range. The GMR likely to cross the 71-73 resistance but the airports and the low traffic will be a drag for time being. The High way construction companies like Nagarjuna constructions, Mytas, IVRCL, C& C constructions, KNR constructions and low cost housing sector focused Omaxe and Orbit Corp. get the investor support. This euphoria will not live long as the uncertainties are still intact. The best is to focus on JP which is having cement and infra.
The Nifty is good above 2750 level and the bottom support is at 2662-63 level. In case the markets fall due to global pressure but will bounce back, gain momentum above 2750 to touch 3039-45 level. So the temporary slag shall be used for buying instead of going for short. Incase Nifty closes below 2520 level then sell the longs to buy again at lower levels
The markets become weak when the Rel Infra trades below and closes below 491-93 level. The Banking sector will lose the ground as a whole when SBI trades below 1056-53 level and Axis bank trades below 415-16. The ICICI bank trades and closes below 322-21level.
The laggards of the market at this point in time are ONGC and Reliance. The NTPC, ITC and HUL are becoming weak. The techs are losing ground but has little was left to gain. The earlier levels are valid to these stocks.
The Govt. planning to spend nearly 20,000 crores of rupees to stimulate the growth above 7%, focusing on infrastructure and core sector spending. To improve the exports, especially the cotton and fabric sector, textiles will get 2% reduction in interest upto Mar-09. The textile sector will get 1400 crores for Technology Upgradation Fund. A 350 crore export intensive scheme and a back up of 350 crores to ECGC (Export Credit Guarantee Corporation) for proving guarantee to exporters. The micro and small industry will get a collateral free lending support upto 1 cr from earlier 50 lakhs.
A special package on loans will be announced by the banks to encourage housing. The large amount of unmet demand for low cost housing will get a boost with the package which will have two categories, one below 50 lakhs and the other one between 5-20 lakhs category. The RBI plans to refinance 4000 cores to National Housing bank (NHB) to spur the growth in low cost housing to the poor. These measures will absorb the expanded capacity of cement and the demand for longs-steel may increase.
The IIFCL- India Infrastructure Finance Company Ltd will raise 10,000 crores via bonds to finance the roads and other Infrastructure projects through Public- Private Partnership (PPP). The plans come through fast in implementation, 60 highway projects likely to get clearance.
The reality and the Infrastructure stocks are likely to get the benefit. The JP associates is good above 67 and likely to reach the 90 range, will become weak below 60-62 range. The GMR likely to cross the 71-73 resistance but the airports and the low traffic will be a drag for time being. The High way construction companies like Nagarjuna constructions, Mytas, IVRCL, C& C constructions, KNR constructions and low cost housing sector focused Omaxe and Orbit Corp. get the investor support. This euphoria will not live long as the uncertainties are still intact. The best is to focus on JP which is having cement and infra.
The Nifty is good above 2750 level and the bottom support is at 2662-63 level. In case the markets fall due to global pressure but will bounce back, gain momentum above 2750 to touch 3039-45 level. So the temporary slag shall be used for buying instead of going for short. Incase Nifty closes below 2520 level then sell the longs to buy again at lower levels
The markets become weak when the Rel Infra trades below and closes below 491-93 level. The Banking sector will lose the ground as a whole when SBI trades below 1056-53 level and Axis bank trades below 415-16. The ICICI bank trades and closes below 322-21level.
The laggards of the market at this point in time are ONGC and Reliance. The NTPC, ITC and HUL are becoming weak. The techs are losing ground but has little was left to gain. The earlier levels are valid to these stocks.
The Hope Vs Reality…
The markets were anxious to accept the stimulus package both from the Govt. and from the RBI for quite some time. The final count down of parliament elections begins once the count done completes for the state assembly results.
The global slow down relaxed the emerging markets oil burden and provided time to consolidate the growth progresses. The economic foundation of country like India is strong but needs external propeller to generate growth stimulus, until then we have to consolidate on internal resource and consumption.
The markets will consolidate until such time with a band of 20%+. The regular reader will notice the same was expressed log back and it continued till date. The sell-off at this point in time can happen on individual stock but not on the Index as a whole. The reverse is true for the rise.
The Nifty has made a decent bottom building process at 2600-2750 level for the last three weeks can go up from here but not as a rally. The challenge at this point is that the Nifty has to trade above 2750 and the high shall pierce the resistance at 2835-40 range. The Bulls got some relief signal to accept more risk to invest. This opportunity shall reflect tomorrow in the stock prices.
The SBI has strong resistance at 1220-40 level and it shall try to close above 1230 level to give confidence. The ICICI bank ADR shown nearly 10% rise on Friday night, a day in advance shall close above 371-73 level. The recent laggard of banking giant HDFC Bank has to cross the resistance at 940 level and close above 921-23 level will ensure that the markets accepted the stimulus package announced.
The global slow down relaxed the emerging markets oil burden and provided time to consolidate the growth progresses. The economic foundation of country like India is strong but needs external propeller to generate growth stimulus, until then we have to consolidate on internal resource and consumption.
The markets will consolidate until such time with a band of 20%+. The regular reader will notice the same was expressed log back and it continued till date. The sell-off at this point in time can happen on individual stock but not on the Index as a whole. The reverse is true for the rise.
The Nifty has made a decent bottom building process at 2600-2750 level for the last three weeks can go up from here but not as a rally. The challenge at this point is that the Nifty has to trade above 2750 and the high shall pierce the resistance at 2835-40 range. The Bulls got some relief signal to accept more risk to invest. This opportunity shall reflect tomorrow in the stock prices.
The SBI has strong resistance at 1220-40 level and it shall try to close above 1230 level to give confidence. The ICICI bank ADR shown nearly 10% rise on Friday night, a day in advance shall close above 371-73 level. The recent laggard of banking giant HDFC Bank has to cross the resistance at 940 level and close above 921-23 level will ensure that the markets accepted the stimulus package announced.
Saturday, December 06, 2008
The RBI announces…
The RBI announced a rate cut both in repo rate and reverse repo rate cut by 100bps to make loans cheaper to stimulate growth. The industry is expecting a CRR cut which did not materialized or postponed for around of press conference.
The central Govt. announced a feeble rate cut on diesel can not make a substantial impact on the transport sector but beneficial self owned generator operators especially in cement sector and for some emergency power generators. Like wise the RBI measures won’t affect the market at large as the banks has to borrow from RBI to lend and they will be under scanner. So the liberty of lending is being fixed but the paper statements of availability of adequate liquidity cannot trigger the economic activity. The reasons are simple as the consumption from exports contacted will become excess supply at home and the hype of recession across the world will make the buyer in India to think twice before “commits”.
The growth in reality is there but postponed for various reasons can get some bottom support temporarily at least at the stock prices. The encouragement to housing below 20 lakh category is a good sign.
I personally think that the stock markets already factored the 100 bps cut in repo and reverse repo rates can little be over exuberated but the housing and reality may rise. No big surprise, so just follow the global trend for time being.
The central Govt. announced a feeble rate cut on diesel can not make a substantial impact on the transport sector but beneficial self owned generator operators especially in cement sector and for some emergency power generators. Like wise the RBI measures won’t affect the market at large as the banks has to borrow from RBI to lend and they will be under scanner. So the liberty of lending is being fixed but the paper statements of availability of adequate liquidity cannot trigger the economic activity. The reasons are simple as the consumption from exports contacted will become excess supply at home and the hype of recession across the world will make the buyer in India to think twice before “commits”.
The growth in reality is there but postponed for various reasons can get some bottom support temporarily at least at the stock prices. The encouragement to housing below 20 lakh category is a good sign.
I personally think that the stock markets already factored the 100 bps cut in repo and reverse repo rates can little be over exuberated but the housing and reality may rise. No big surprise, so just follow the global trend for time being.
The haunt of global…..
The markets are interested in participate the trends of the global economy despite of its decoupling nature once in a week to maintain the bottom above 2600 level. The Nifty low made at 2701.35, got well above the strong support at 2673-76 level but it got resistance at 2820, failed to cross the initial resistance at2832-36 level. The previous levels were not breached but the ONGC and ICICI bank are going to play a decisive role to give direction to Nifty.
The continued action in the media stocks rocking the markets as the election results followed big fight for parliament election campaign and the no less viewer eye balls for the terrorist news coverage improved market capitalization to many listed companies by more than 30%.
The techs will recover once the doom period of out-sourcing stand of Obama is clear in regulations & acts until then the range bound will keep shifting day after day.
The skeptics of reality sector got some decent price rise of more than 20% put their wishes in action placed a cap on the up move but the Bulls have hopes on Govt’s stimulus package. The petro rate cut will further ease on the inflation but the transport costs neither decrease due to this cut nor increase the volume.
The RBI package can add considerable impact on the direction of the Nifty, if it favours the Bulls, then the Nifty will cross the 3100 level with out any resistance.
The continued action in the media stocks rocking the markets as the election results followed big fight for parliament election campaign and the no less viewer eye balls for the terrorist news coverage improved market capitalization to many listed companies by more than 30%.
The techs will recover once the doom period of out-sourcing stand of Obama is clear in regulations & acts until then the range bound will keep shifting day after day.
The skeptics of reality sector got some decent price rise of more than 20% put their wishes in action placed a cap on the up move but the Bulls have hopes on Govt’s stimulus package. The petro rate cut will further ease on the inflation but the transport costs neither decrease due to this cut nor increase the volume.
The RBI package can add considerable impact on the direction of the Nifty, if it favours the Bulls, then the Nifty will cross the 3100 level with out any resistance.
Thursday, December 04, 2008
The Vengeance of Bulls…
The Bulls settled scores with Bears to cover their positions in the Banking giant SBI. The RIL has shown its strength lately but firmly. The infrastructure stocks sky rocketed as if there was a Bull run going. The net result is a gain of more than 132 points on Nifty.
I clearly mentioned in my last posting as …(.. The Nifty is weak below 2670-80 level but gain strength above 2705-11 that can fuel fire in Bulls to trap the Bears to cover their positions…). The RIL once crossed the resistance above 1093 shooted upto 1170, SBI is strong above 1085 made a low at 1095 touched a high of 1175 but the only special mention required is for ONGC, failed to cross the 680 level today and it has to cross the resistance.
The inflation was at 8.4% a considerable drop from a top around 12% a few months back is very encouraging. This can further fall if the petro prices are cut and liquidity is infused can kick start the economic activity back on fast track.The markets have good bounce with volumes in beaten down sectors like Reality and metals but the laggards participated with low volume, tech need no special mention.
The major economies like England reduced the interest rates and the France opted for a stimuli package to boost the ailing economy. We are no less than other but our heads need a stimulus to announce it.
As mentioned earlier posts that … The SEBI announcement of margin facility to all participants can improve the sentiment as the news flow in favour of Bull can propel the momentum in the Nifty levels back to 2800 levels. Now the markets are in different orbit will take time to make a significant move to cross the 3080 resistance but the bottom support is at 2635-45 level, which may be challenged if things worsen then we may test new lows again but it will be for a stronger bounce.
The kick start generated today may consume some time to gain the momentum as we are coming out of woods/darkness. The pessimism cannot be over lapped with positive feel with this kind of move but the foundations were laid.
I clearly mentioned in my last posting as …(.. The Nifty is weak below 2670-80 level but gain strength above 2705-11 that can fuel fire in Bulls to trap the Bears to cover their positions…). The RIL once crossed the resistance above 1093 shooted upto 1170, SBI is strong above 1085 made a low at 1095 touched a high of 1175 but the only special mention required is for ONGC, failed to cross the 680 level today and it has to cross the resistance.
The inflation was at 8.4% a considerable drop from a top around 12% a few months back is very encouraging. This can further fall if the petro prices are cut and liquidity is infused can kick start the economic activity back on fast track.The markets have good bounce with volumes in beaten down sectors like Reality and metals but the laggards participated with low volume, tech need no special mention.
The major economies like England reduced the interest rates and the France opted for a stimuli package to boost the ailing economy. We are no less than other but our heads need a stimulus to announce it.
As mentioned earlier posts that … The SEBI announcement of margin facility to all participants can improve the sentiment as the news flow in favour of Bull can propel the momentum in the Nifty levels back to 2800 levels. Now the markets are in different orbit will take time to make a significant move to cross the 3080 resistance but the bottom support is at 2635-45 level, which may be challenged if things worsen then we may test new lows again but it will be for a stronger bounce.
The kick start generated today may consume some time to gain the momentum as we are coming out of woods/darkness. The pessimism cannot be over lapped with positive feel with this kind of move but the foundations were laid.
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
The fight for survival…..
The day displayed a strong fight for survival of the market at 2650 level. As posted earlier the high light of the day is the smart recovery of SBI to close above 1085. The RIL is struggling to gain strength to move up but it displayed a decent fight against the Bears. The ONGC and Bharti were subdued despite good effort by the Banking lot to move up. The star of the day is Tata Steel posted 10% rise with huge volume and the DLF made equal volume with good show to cross the 191-93 resistance. The LIC Housing along and SUN gave above 20% rise in the non index shares is a clear sign of shuffling and choosing the future out performers.
The techs lost the sheen due to foreign brokerage house CLSA report dented the growth in share rise, Infosys chopped down by 4.3% Wipro TCS and Satyam were no exception. The teleco lost value by 3-5% but the autos recovered on short covering. The Banking sector posted decent gains on the hopes of fall in inflation that can force the Central bank to take an early decision on rate cuts.
The Nifty is at cross roads and waiting for break out. In case the RIL fails to cross the 1093 level and trades below 1040-35 then the markets will easily touch the 2000-2100 level with out much resistance from Bulls. The SBI gained but the RIL, ONGC and Bharti are in negative territory with new members from tech sector. The Nifty is weak below 2670-80 level but gain strength above 2705-11 that can fuel fire in Bulls to trap the Bears to cover their positions.
In case BHEL and LT recovers then there was some glimmer of hope in the capital goods and Infrastructure sector that build due to the NHAI announcements.
The techs lost the sheen due to foreign brokerage house CLSA report dented the growth in share rise, Infosys chopped down by 4.3% Wipro TCS and Satyam were no exception. The teleco lost value by 3-5% but the autos recovered on short covering. The Banking sector posted decent gains on the hopes of fall in inflation that can force the Central bank to take an early decision on rate cuts.
The Nifty is at cross roads and waiting for break out. In case the RIL fails to cross the 1093 level and trades below 1040-35 then the markets will easily touch the 2000-2100 level with out much resistance from Bulls. The SBI gained but the RIL, ONGC and Bharti are in negative territory with new members from tech sector. The Nifty is weak below 2670-80 level but gain strength above 2705-11 that can fuel fire in Bulls to trap the Bears to cover their positions.
In case BHEL and LT recovers then there was some glimmer of hope in the capital goods and Infrastructure sector that build due to the NHAI announcements.
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Recovered but weak…..
The markets took the support once it touched the low at 2571 level and it managed to claw back to close at 2657 level a much needed support to Nifty above 2630 level and the weakness in RIL and ONGC is a great concern at this point in time.
The Australia cut the lending rates by 100 bps and our top brass discussing for the timing. The stimulus package announced to has some bearing on Infrastructure companies but the release of funds and the cost that matters a lot at this hour. The SEBI announcement of margin facility to all participants can improve the sentiment as the news flow infavour of Bull can propel the momentum in the Nifty levels back to 2800 levels.
In case the resistance at 2750 level crossed with ease, close above 2735-42 will add value to Bulls efforts. The bears will cover the positions as the positive news unfolds as progress progresses and the Nifty may touch again 3280-3300 level with short covering.
The only threatening concern unfolding is the verbal war with neighbours on Mumbai blasts can easily change the direction in case the situation provoked for a war on the terrorist camps.
The RIL has to cross the 1120 level, SBI has to cross the 1085 level and ONGC has to trade above 705level to see the Nifty to scale for new territory above 2860 level.
The Australia cut the lending rates by 100 bps and our top brass discussing for the timing. The stimulus package announced to has some bearing on Infrastructure companies but the release of funds and the cost that matters a lot at this hour. The SEBI announcement of margin facility to all participants can improve the sentiment as the news flow infavour of Bull can propel the momentum in the Nifty levels back to 2800 levels.
In case the resistance at 2750 level crossed with ease, close above 2735-42 will add value to Bulls efforts. The bears will cover the positions as the positive news unfolds as progress progresses and the Nifty may touch again 3280-3300 level with short covering.
The only threatening concern unfolding is the verbal war with neighbours on Mumbai blasts can easily change the direction in case the situation provoked for a war on the terrorist camps.
The RIL has to cross the 1120 level, SBI has to cross the 1085 level and ONGC has to trade above 705level to see the Nifty to scale for new territory above 2860 level.
Monday, December 01, 2008
The terror lead…..
Now the markets are feeling the real tremors of the terror lead market progress that towards South. The November series closed with a positive not despite of the threats, Bulls interested to participate in the global recovery journey.
The December series started with a positive note in the morning but closed deep in red in the late hour selling due to weak European openings and the political uncertainty at the centre along with the visible contraction of growth due poor sales figures from auto sector and decline in export earnings add weight to drag the indices fall faster than expected to touch a low of 2669.50 and closed at 2682.90
The markets witness the selling at the higher level due to the negative developments. In my earlier post it was mentioned that the support was at 2663-61 level where today Nifty took bottom support. The worry some factor is that the SBI is trading below 1085 and the RIL closed below 1120 level and the ONGC well below 695levels.
The Global weakness may force Nifty to touch 2581-83 level but the challenge is the recovery from the lows. In case Nifty closes below 2631-33 level for tomorrow, then the markets smell something bigger problem as the rate cuts were postponed and the market friendly policy announcements could put a back seat to tackle the internal security and the foreign affairs can consume lot of time and challenging times a head.
The December series started with a positive note in the morning but closed deep in red in the late hour selling due to weak European openings and the political uncertainty at the centre along with the visible contraction of growth due poor sales figures from auto sector and decline in export earnings add weight to drag the indices fall faster than expected to touch a low of 2669.50 and closed at 2682.90
The markets witness the selling at the higher level due to the negative developments. In my earlier post it was mentioned that the support was at 2663-61 level where today Nifty took bottom support. The worry some factor is that the SBI is trading below 1085 and the RIL closed below 1120 level and the ONGC well below 695levels.
The Global weakness may force Nifty to touch 2581-83 level but the challenge is the recovery from the lows. In case Nifty closes below 2631-33 level for tomorrow, then the markets smell something bigger problem as the rate cuts were postponed and the market friendly policy announcements could put a back seat to tackle the internal security and the foreign affairs can consume lot of time and challenging times a head.
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Ghastly but cowardly act….
The cowards of the human society envious of the progress of Indians, made an assault on the innocent human beings. They killed more than 150 and injured more than 380 in Mumbai. The poor victims paid their lives as penalty for this malicious act of the terrorists. The inhuman acts of these terrorists have to be condemned by one and all with out barriers. The heads of the state and the global leaders shall act firmly to bulldoze these un-lawful organizations without any consideration.
The history suggests that the markets are resilient to these kinds of terrors to dampen the economic investments in India. This time the severity will put the investors to think twice before drawing the final line. The markets made a decent bottom building process in the previous trading sessions but can be challenged due to this ghastly act. The DIIs and the MFs will rescue the free fall in case selling pressure in accentuated.
The markets across the globe advanced and our markets may face the selling pressure in the morning but can pull back to 2800 level for the Nov. expiry closing, as it was postponed to tomorrow.
The Nifty has good support at 2693 level and at 2663-61 level. In case RIL trades below 1095 and SBI trades below 1085 level and ONGC trades below 665 then the markets are weak. The RIL above 1122 and SBI above 1140 levels and ONGC above 695 levels can channel an up move. As the last day of expiry the volatility could be high.
The concern over inflation is no longer keeping the policy makers to tighten the liquidity may announce at least 50 bps of CRR and Repo cut to keeps the Bears away to take advantage of the crisis situation happened in our financial capital of India.
The history suggests that the markets are resilient to these kinds of terrors to dampen the economic investments in India. This time the severity will put the investors to think twice before drawing the final line. The markets made a decent bottom building process in the previous trading sessions but can be challenged due to this ghastly act. The DIIs and the MFs will rescue the free fall in case selling pressure in accentuated.
The markets across the globe advanced and our markets may face the selling pressure in the morning but can pull back to 2800 level for the Nov. expiry closing, as it was postponed to tomorrow.
The Nifty has good support at 2693 level and at 2663-61 level. In case RIL trades below 1095 and SBI trades below 1085 level and ONGC trades below 665 then the markets are weak. The RIL above 1122 and SBI above 1140 levels and ONGC above 695 levels can channel an up move. As the last day of expiry the volatility could be high.
The concern over inflation is no longer keeping the policy makers to tighten the liquidity may announce at least 50 bps of CRR and Repo cut to keeps the Bears away to take advantage of the crisis situation happened in our financial capital of India.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
The HNI’s are wakeful…..
In my earlier article posted two days back mentioned about the possible bottom out of the Indian indices. The correction in the stock prices will of sector/ stock specific. The fall below 2500 will be an opportunity to build portfolio in the emerging sectors than can offer decent returns over next two years. Today……..
The BusinessLine (Wed, 26Nov.08) covered in it Market Watch page-11 titled ‘Investors should prepare for recovery trades’ Citi bailout could mark end of decline: JP Morgan, Bloomberg, Nov,25 ….Citigroup Inc’s rescue package by the US government may be the spur that ends declines in equity markets and investors should be “positioned for recovery trades” JP Morgan chase & co said. With valuations low and risk aversion high, Mr Adrian Mowat, JP Morgan,s Chief asia and emerging market strategist, said he believes “ most of the selling has been done”……..
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
At cross roads…..
The fear for “Longs” holding threatening the Bulls to hold despite the global good news due to the positive cues from the US. The markets are not enthused by the global cues because of delay in keeping the rate cut by the RBI and the Govt. is seriously busy with the election schedule posing a threat to Bulls.
The technicals were not violated due to this steep fall from a high of 2790 level to 2638 level. The steep fall push out those small investors who bought at lover levels and keep them away as this wild swings create tension. The informed individuals and HNIs, DIIs, MFs and the FIIs take the lower level to build their positions to average out and churn the portfolios to performing sectors from non performing sectors.
The concern is that the SBI trading below 1080 level and the Nifty trading below 2670-80 level. The Nifty low building is good but the pruning highs are a concern as the heavy weights turned bearish. The Bears are not applying the pressure but the Bulls are running away to accept the positions at higher level due the negative sentiment spread over the bourses. In case the Nifty crosses the resistance at 2693-97 level and closes above 2670 then the consolidation is on the buy side.
The RIL has to cross the 1140 level and close above 1109-11 level, SBI has to cross the 1147 and close above 1120. The ONGC has to cross the 697 resistance and the Bharti shall trade above 640 levels to accept the bear pressure is over and the positions built at the lower level.
The technicals were not violated due to this steep fall from a high of 2790 level to 2638 level. The steep fall push out those small investors who bought at lover levels and keep them away as this wild swings create tension. The informed individuals and HNIs, DIIs, MFs and the FIIs take the lower level to build their positions to average out and churn the portfolios to performing sectors from non performing sectors.
The concern is that the SBI trading below 1080 level and the Nifty trading below 2670-80 level. The Nifty low building is good but the pruning highs are a concern as the heavy weights turned bearish. The Bears are not applying the pressure but the Bulls are running away to accept the positions at higher level due the negative sentiment spread over the bourses. In case the Nifty crosses the resistance at 2693-97 level and closes above 2670 then the consolidation is on the buy side.
The RIL has to cross the 1140 level and close above 1109-11 level, SBI has to cross the 1147 and close above 1120. The ONGC has to cross the 697 resistance and the Bharti shall trade above 640 levels to accept the bear pressure is over and the positions built at the lower level.
The Reflections of the past…..
The history is to visit the past to plan for the future with the presents scenarios. The stock markets provide ample of evidence to correlate with the past experiences. The end of the Bull market can be gauged by the exuberant rise in the small cap stocks that are known to no body. The reverse is the case for the end of the bear market when the well known most trusted firm’s bankrupt and the HNIs and the wise will grab the opportunity to invest for long term. Now the time is……
Uncertainty is Certain… 25-12-2007
The stock valuations are most vulnerable by their nature to the minor and major issues and to local and international issues even if they are not of much importance on the face of influence a lot in the minds of investors cause anxiety fluctuate in price irrespective of the percentage of concern. We can easily say, “the uncertainty is certain” at the bourses each time and every time. Those who fear about uncertainty can search their souls in peace, as nothing is certain.
As expected in my earlier write up the market bounced back on bull track in 4 trading sessions.(………if the Nifty to close above 5935 with in 3 trading sessions. At the immediate level the Nifty shall not close below 5670 level to continue the bull run…….. The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma).
Now the challenge at the Nifty level is to stay above 5778-71 to register a new high and above 6400 level by the end of first week of Feb-2008. The run up in the prices of power and infra will take a back seat and the service sectors and hotels will enjoy the support of bulls along with FMGC & retail move. The gas transportation and the network is the emerging sector. I have been suggesting holding in Fertliser stocks and the next big bet on banks with insurance exposure. These sectors will explode maximum followed by oil exploration and allied services.
No longer immune…….
The Indian markets are resilient to the external pressures of equity fall as the markets see good future but the immediate and short-term pressures cann’t be ruled out. In my ealier write up dated: 29/10/2007, clearly mentioned the possible up side be capped at 6290.
It can’t be stretched further….
…..I foresee the Bull run can become a long consolidation period- more than 6-9 months with a range of 5250-6290 at Nifty level.
The markets are likely to see more down ward action than upward momentum. The rise and fall ratio could be of 1:3 from next week onwards until Aug-Sep-2008. Incase economy could face the challenges for next 6 months than the upward journey in the stocks resume. Indian stocks revaluation based on the broad based economy and growth prospects is over and the real test is that the companies have to perform given the opportunities, then the markets. So is US………
The markets are fighting for their survival as the Bull Run took a beating at the bourses. The markets will take considerable time to resume their upward move. (Pls.read my earlier write ups.---the range suggested at 5250-6290 but the high touched at 6347). The game plans of the operators are very clear that they took the Sub-prime issue for more than 6-months so that the retail investors forget. I warned that the sub-prime issue is much bigger than what they pronouncing.
Now the long period of consolidation is good opportunity to traders as they can get in and get out at every 12-15% rise and fall. The earnings will be good to the Indian industry as the consumer demand and the economic growth continue to flourish. The markets likely to test the bottom at 5192-5226 at the worst scenario but this will happen only if the Nifty fails to cross 5935 before the end of Jan-FO series.
The markets likely to get support at 5670 level as first support and if trades below that level then the support at 5445-15 level at the October-07 level. So long the Reliance stays above 2630-50 level, ICICI stays above 1135-29 level and the ONDC stays above 1090-1110, SBI stays above 2020 and the Bharti stays above 810 level the markets enjoy the bulls support. This correction is a measure to MFs & FIIs to save themselves from the Mid-cap trap happened at 2005.
The Fittest will….
The trouble was there in the market when the markets crossed 6300 at Nifty level and the supports became weak but it survived on the euphoria of Mid and small cap run-up. I personally warned in my write up titled..(Y can’t it be…………….Dt.18-11-2007……. I personally feel that the prices were sky rocketing with thin edge time to participate in those sharp moves is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.
The retail investor will now about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day the participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. Be cautious……………………).
The situation could not have this much worse but the deep write down mess in the US financial sector gave an opportunity to correct the steep valuations at the home. So the conclusion is as simple as that “Never buy beyond a point… the point can be identified by the age old, ever green safe investment method—P/E ratio”.
So never blame the market or the seller who made you to buy. It is a simple marketing strategy. While some one out for shopping shall understand his/her home needs rather than blaming marketing people. The emotions at stock market will drain the purse and fill the heart with pain.The end of the BULLRUN?.17-12-2007
The markets are taking deep breath to settle for a long leap up move or end of the Bull Run? Is the question at this point? I see a steep correction like that happened in May 2005 if the Nifty to close above 5935 with in 3 trading sessions. At the immediate level the Nifty shall not close below 5670 level to continue the bull run. Incase the nifty fails to trade and close above 5885 tomorrow, it is likely that the markets likely to touch 5321-28 level and then markets need strong cues to rejuvenate the bulls. The big boys of the market are very silent for their own reasons but the time has come that they need to infuse vital medicine to the Bulls to take on Bears. The good support of RIL at 2640-30, SBI has support at 2135-2128, ONGC has support at 1060-70, Bharti at 835-829 level and the ICICI has support at 1085-1090. Incase two or three stocks could stay above 4-5% above those support levels then the markets are for the Bulls. The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma With out doubt, the Small cap and Mid-cap run-up story is intact until the Nifty stays above 4865-4935 levels.
Distribute and eliminate…………..21-11-2007
Who will buy at higher levels is all ways the question asked by many and the doubt can be answered only when some body experiences the taste of buying at the top and selling at the panic bottom.
“Don’t be CRAZY to chase…”, “be cautious…..,” the phrases often used and shout… buy buy buying—happening every where……create a confusion in the minds of investors and make them to believe every thing is rosy and beautiful. This is a classical effort to prepare the retail small investors to become scapegoats.
In my earlier write up cautioned the readers to think about the happenings at the bourses? The speeds at which things are happening are very new to Indian investors and are losing time, opportunity and money in the process. The game plans are designed in such a manner to eliminate the retail investor incase somebody holding good stocks at fair prices.
“The steep falls and steep rises give little time to think.”— “Stock Market” is a mind game and every step of investment shall go after through a research, understanding the business and the timing of pricing the investment.
At the end of the day “Minting Money” in the “Stock Market” comes by “Buy Low- Sell High” but not by buying cheap………………
Gross & wild violation…..22-11-2007
Any body who live with technicals can contribute this fall is steep and wild in violating the supports. Any way the fact is the bottom is lost. The hope totally depended on the reliance, ONGC and SBI. They are very strong even at this level of correction. The bulls have the last opportunity to believe the market is a Bull market until it stays above 5175-80 levels. The markets can fluctuate with a wide range of spread for a greater consolidation as the prices have reached relatively high level.
Then the hope lies a head so long the RIL stays above 2580 at immediate support level and can even touch 2440-50 level. The ONGC got the support at 1090 and even can touch 1010-20 level. The big banking leader can touch 2020-2030 and even touch 1910-1900.
So wait and see what will happen at global level and at the local level. The ray of hope lies with the support from local institutions and the deep-pocketed HNIs who are waiting for long time when the FIIs are at buying spree after the rate cut at US.
Y can’t it be…………….18-11-2007
The story is contrary to the current happenings at the bourses. The positive side shall go this way….
In my earlier write up I clearly mention to hold positions in fertilizer stocks for decent gains. Now they doubled from the prices recommended to buy & hold. In the same manner I wrote about the investments of FIIs in our markets. They first invested huge amounts in the Reliance group. They are familiar with the reliance group growth story than the Indian growth story. Now they are spreading their investments to other sectors with different groups. The large caps are rather fully saturated at the price level and left with little scope for further appreciation. So the MFs, FIIs and the DIIs are left with no option but to explore new opportunities with emerging companies though they are small to medium in size at this point in time. The flare up in prices is due to the mismatch in their size and the liquid cash chasing the stock.
The negative side shall go this way….
The small cap and the medium cap stocks are now in their flare-up run at the bourses, but the investigative approach can show a dark side of manipulations in the game.
The story goes back to the 2005-2006, the FIIs, the MFs and the operators heavily invested in (the early bird catches the fish) the Mid-small cps to capture the instant large gains which turned out a futile effort due to lack of liquidity due to the steep crash when the Sensex was at 12000 range. The investments became dud for long two years with no moves. After a long frustration, now these people captured the up moves with vengeance. I personally feel that the prices were sky rocketing with thin edge time to participate in those sharp moves is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.
The retail investor will know about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day the participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. Be cautious……………………
The retail investors always caught because of the Price Luring while moving up and Fear of Loss while falling down. The markets always provide enough chance to make money but we tend to be ignorant to catch the opportunity. So it is not the BEST PRICE to buy A STOCK but the RIGHT TIME to buy is very important.
The Citi may not sleep….
The bottoms of the Nifty are intact, gained some strength at 2685 level and the Nifty likely to easily cross the 2839-41 level and may touch 2865-69 level with the markets/economy stimulus actions proposed by the Indian govt.and the positive but cautious views of Obama and his economic team. The markets took all measures that can help it to advance to scale high to give decent returns to Bulls. The sector specific moves are now stock specific and news specific.
The Citi bail out package and the proposed auto makers support plans may ease pressures on Bulls and short covering may emerge across the globe for a decent rally in December.
The Citi bail out package and the proposed auto makers support plans may ease pressures on Bulls and short covering may emerge across the globe for a decent rally in December.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Expected Positive move……
The life in the Indian markets was displayed as expected in the previous post. …..The immediate first aid help to markets considered completed when Nifty crosses the 2680 level…….The makets moved in the last 45 minutes to surprise the bears and closed at 2693 level and touched a high of 2718.60. The markets displayed the strength but the volume is nothing special to mentions. The move is to threaten the bears and to display the inherent zeal to buy at the rock bottom levels.
The money inflow to mutual funds is a positive signal, the recovery in the global markets along with India may continue for some time unless some thing unusual catches the headlines.
The DLF belied the expected move to cross the 236 level but accepted the resistance at 219 and made a journey to touch 180 is a negative signal that to with huge volume despite the buy back at 600 was on. The real estate sector as a whole will see a subdued life for another two years as they are grossly depended on the FII shopping, HNIs and the NRIs. So those who want to wait and continue to buy at lower levels irrespective of the price can choose the sector as it has higher value to unfold in future but the near-term is bleak.
The plan of the Govt. to spend on infra structure was good but the life of the govt is too little to make a change. So this can generate hope but the actualized benefits are small.
The Nifty has made a decent bottom at the 2500-50 level, unless broken that support and SBI trades below 1085-90 level, the upward journey is likely to continue till 2930 is reached. The tiggers for the up move basically short covering and the positive news flow from the globe.
The money inflow to mutual funds is a positive signal, the recovery in the global markets along with India may continue for some time unless some thing unusual catches the headlines.
The DLF belied the expected move to cross the 236 level but accepted the resistance at 219 and made a journey to touch 180 is a negative signal that to with huge volume despite the buy back at 600 was on. The real estate sector as a whole will see a subdued life for another two years as they are grossly depended on the FII shopping, HNIs and the NRIs. So those who want to wait and continue to buy at lower levels irrespective of the price can choose the sector as it has higher value to unfold in future but the near-term is bleak.
The plan of the Govt. to spend on infra structure was good but the life of the govt is too little to make a change. So this can generate hope but the actualized benefits are small.
The Nifty has made a decent bottom at the 2500-50 level, unless broken that support and SBI trades below 1085-90 level, the upward journey is likely to continue till 2930 is reached. The tiggers for the up move basically short covering and the positive news flow from the globe.
Expected Positive move……
So the life in the Indian equity markets was displayed as expected in the previous post. …..The immediate first aid help to markets considered completed when Nifty crosses the 2680 level…….The makets moved in the last 45 minutes to surprise the bears and closed at 2693 level and touched a high of 2718.60. The markets displayed the strength but the volume is nothing special to mentions. The move is to threaten the bears and to display the inherent zeal to buy at the rock bottom levels.
The money inflow to mutual funds is a positive signal, the recovery in the global markets along with India may continue for some time unless some thing unusual catches the headlines.
The DLF belies the expected move to cross the 236 level but accepted the resistance at 219 and made a journey to touch 180 is a negative signal that to with huge volume despite the buy back at 600 was on.
The real estate sector as a whole will see a subdued life for another two years as they are grossly depended on the FII shopping, HNIs and the NRIs. So those who want to wait and continue to buy at lower levels irrespective of the price can choose the sector as it has higher value to unfold in future but the near-term is bleak.
The plan of the Govt. to spend on infra structure was good but the life of the govt is too little to make a change. So this can generate hope but the actualized benefits are small.
The Nifty has made a decent bottom at the 2500-50 level, unless broken that support and SBI trades below 1085-90 level, the upward journey is likely to continue till 2930 is reached. The tiggers for the up move basically short covering and the positive news flow from the globe.
The money inflow to mutual funds is a positive signal, the recovery in the global markets along with India may continue for some time unless some thing unusual catches the headlines.
The DLF belies the expected move to cross the 236 level but accepted the resistance at 219 and made a journey to touch 180 is a negative signal that to with huge volume despite the buy back at 600 was on.
The real estate sector as a whole will see a subdued life for another two years as they are grossly depended on the FII shopping, HNIs and the NRIs. So those who want to wait and continue to buy at lower levels irrespective of the price can choose the sector as it has higher value to unfold in future but the near-term is bleak.
The plan of the Govt. to spend on infra structure was good but the life of the govt is too little to make a change. So this can generate hope but the actualized benefits are small.
The Nifty has made a decent bottom at the 2500-50 level, unless broken that support and SBI trades below 1085-90 level, the upward journey is likely to continue till 2930 is reached. The tiggers for the up move basically short covering and the positive news flow from the globe.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
The inflation dips….
The inflation dips to 8.9 %(wow) but no joy to celebrate at the bourses. The fall in the inflation and the low commodity prices will give a breather to the FM and the RBI to chalk out a plan to go a rate cut. The RBI may for 50bps rate cut in CRR and repo rate cut to enhance the liquidity in the system. The stock markets are reeling under heavy Bear pressure and the global situation adding fuel to fire to kill our/ emerging markets as they are at the sprouting stage.
The immediate first aid help to markets considered completed when Nifty crosses the 2680 level. Today the strength in Nifty came from the lows with the SBI spike, HDFC recovery that came from its lows and the Bharti support may turn positive for tomorrow. The Reliance has to cross the last four days closing at 1135-41 level can support the falling market. The SBI has to cross the 1155-58 resistance. The ICICI bank will help the Index by crossing the resistance at 440 level. The ONGC has to cross the 690-93 level, the DLF may cross the 236-39 level. The above levels can be used as the first signs of revival and the move of HDFC and HDFC bank rise from their yearly lows provide strength to Nifty. As mentioned in the earlier posts, the techs are neutral in the Nifty direction.
The immediate first aid help to markets considered completed when Nifty crosses the 2680 level. Today the strength in Nifty came from the lows with the SBI spike, HDFC recovery that came from its lows and the Bharti support may turn positive for tomorrow. The Reliance has to cross the last four days closing at 1135-41 level can support the falling market. The SBI has to cross the 1155-58 resistance. The ICICI bank will help the Index by crossing the resistance at 440 level. The ONGC has to cross the 690-93 level, the DLF may cross the 236-39 level. The above levels can be used as the first signs of revival and the move of HDFC and HDFC bank rise from their yearly lows provide strength to Nifty. As mentioned in the earlier posts, the techs are neutral in the Nifty direction.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
STOP TALKING…..
The IBM Ad says “STOP TALKING-START DOING”-the only mantra for economy revival.
The govt. is taking advantage of the crisis for the political mileage and asking the industry to go for price cut that can reflect in votes as the public can perceive the difference and can feel the comfort.
The economy is good when compare with the world top economies but our dependence on investment is also high even though our internal consumption is strong and the scope for infrastructure is huge.
The backing sector is crumbling with the bad news of rising bad debts and the MFs are facing the pressure from “the weight of redeem” as the uncertainty is enlarging
The Nifty finally closed at 2635 level, a clear bounce in the world indices can propel our Nifty to scale high other wise it will live like a laggard for next two quarters. The Nifty shall try to bounce back to 2860 level then it may confirm the recent bottom is the low for the rest of the year but the news flow and the govt. attempts are not favouring.
The Nifty now has to cross the immediate resistance at 2800-2810. this can be achieved incase RIL can bounce back to cross the resistance at 1189-93 level and can send positive feelers if it can trade above 1225 level, Bharti above 685-90 level, ONGC above 720 level. The ITC, REL infra, HUL and DLF will add their support. The INFY, TCS, Wipro are now neutral and the banking major SBI is seriously under bear grip, so is the financial sector.
The govt. is taking advantage of the crisis for the political mileage and asking the industry to go for price cut that can reflect in votes as the public can perceive the difference and can feel the comfort.
The economy is good when compare with the world top economies but our dependence on investment is also high even though our internal consumption is strong and the scope for infrastructure is huge.
The backing sector is crumbling with the bad news of rising bad debts and the MFs are facing the pressure from “the weight of redeem” as the uncertainty is enlarging
The Nifty finally closed at 2635 level, a clear bounce in the world indices can propel our Nifty to scale high other wise it will live like a laggard for next two quarters. The Nifty shall try to bounce back to 2860 level then it may confirm the recent bottom is the low for the rest of the year but the news flow and the govt. attempts are not favouring.
The Nifty now has to cross the immediate resistance at 2800-2810. this can be achieved incase RIL can bounce back to cross the resistance at 1189-93 level and can send positive feelers if it can trade above 1225 level, Bharti above 685-90 level, ONGC above 720 level. The ITC, REL infra, HUL and DLF will add their support. The INFY, TCS, Wipro are now neutral and the banking major SBI is seriously under bear grip, so is the financial sector.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
The G-20 effect….
The counties like India whose economic strength and the opportunity to give higher returns to PE players/direct FII investment in core sectors is intact but the global turmoil has dampened the foreign inflow. The high slogans of G-20 heads has limited use as there was no concrete steps to meet the global financial demands and steps to spur the slowing economic growth.
The countries across the world are fascinated to announce that they are facing economic slow down/recession. The top head lines confirm that each day, day after a day, one or the other country either it could be European or Asian proudly announcing the above statement and seeking for help. The G-20 nations at home may reduce the interest rates and increase the money supply to avert the gravity of economic slow down.
The classic rebound from the Diwali Nifty high may produce much required hope to Bulls but the Nifty is currently trading below the support level. Now the concern at home is about the bad debts and the rise. The Govt. shall increase steps to spend more and build confidence to Industry to go for expansion albeit a slower pace. The previous post levels of the companies are not changed but NTPC the sole company in the lot exhibited resilience and made sharp recovery to above 150 levels.
The Nifty will loose the earlier said support at 2630 level and may go down below 2500 level unless the Reserve Bank of India announces the repo rate cut by Wednesday, as the inflationary pressures are showing clear signs of easing. The worst case the RBI can wait for a day, till it finds the clear picture after the announcement of inflation figures on Thursday.
The countries across the world are fascinated to announce that they are facing economic slow down/recession. The top head lines confirm that each day, day after a day, one or the other country either it could be European or Asian proudly announcing the above statement and seeking for help. The G-20 nations at home may reduce the interest rates and increase the money supply to avert the gravity of economic slow down.
The classic rebound from the Diwali Nifty high may produce much required hope to Bulls but the Nifty is currently trading below the support level. Now the concern at home is about the bad debts and the rise. The Govt. shall increase steps to spend more and build confidence to Industry to go for expansion albeit a slower pace. The previous post levels of the companies are not changed but NTPC the sole company in the lot exhibited resilience and made sharp recovery to above 150 levels.
The Nifty will loose the earlier said support at 2630 level and may go down below 2500 level unless the Reserve Bank of India announces the repo rate cut by Wednesday, as the inflationary pressures are showing clear signs of easing. The worst case the RBI can wait for a day, till it finds the clear picture after the announcement of inflation figures on Thursday.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
The Nifty is weak……
The Nifty is weak below the 2930 level and waiting for some positive triggers to cross the 3080-3100 level. The consolidation of Nifty around 2500-3500 level will take at least a quarter and half, and then the up move may cross the serious resistance at 3680 level and at 3900 level. Incase Nifty trades above 2860 and crosses the minor resistance at 2950 level, then it is good to go long in the power and infra stocks but as of now the Nifty is looking south-wards than the otherwise.
The RIL is weak below 1236-41 level, The ONGC is weak below 735 level, The SBI is weak below 1269-73 level, The ICICI is weak below 441-43 level, The DLF is weak below 269-66 level, The TATA STEEL is weak below 196-93 level, The BHEL is weak below 1380-1420 level, The LT is weak below 880-86 level and Relcap is weak below 665-70 level.
The Rel infra is strong and good above 560-68 level, NTPC is strong and positive above 151-53 level, ITC is good above 173 level. These 3 companies are loosing their ground despite of their good show in the last two weeks.
The divergence in the move from negative to positive is expected in the telecom stocks as the foreign companies are interested in our telecom sector. The RCOM is weak below 239-43 level, The BHARTI is weak below 719-23 level but these counters are in accumulation mode.
The RIL is weak below 1236-41 level, The ONGC is weak below 735 level, The SBI is weak below 1269-73 level, The ICICI is weak below 441-43 level, The DLF is weak below 269-66 level, The TATA STEEL is weak below 196-93 level, The BHEL is weak below 1380-1420 level, The LT is weak below 880-86 level and Relcap is weak below 665-70 level.
The Rel infra is strong and good above 560-68 level, NTPC is strong and positive above 151-53 level, ITC is good above 173 level. These 3 companies are loosing their ground despite of their good show in the last two weeks.
The divergence in the move from negative to positive is expected in the telecom stocks as the foreign companies are interested in our telecom sector. The RCOM is weak below 239-43 level, The BHARTI is weak below 719-23 level but these counters are in accumulation mode.
The fall exhibits….
The Indian markets are grossly underperforming the rest of Asia due to the cropping local issues that are there but dormant.
The production cut backs are now spreading form auto mobile to cotton industry, diamond industry & agri exporters’ dependant on US. The bad news engulfed the infrastructure slow down inspite of lower metal and cement process. The real-estate boom became a doom spoiled the spiraling steel prices party, now a situation to cut the production both hot rolled and cold rolled products. The fall in commodity prices did not helped the industry due to the wide-spread “fear of spending”, the sole reason for this slowdown/recession in the developing nations. The classical example is the shutdown of plants by reliance.
The local demand is not exhausted at the consumer level especially countries like India but the think-tank high level community spreading the voices of vicious feelings that “it could happen in India like US”. So the belt tightening measures controlled the loan disbursal and the consequential impact is known to every body.
NIFTY LEVELS will be posted in the follwing post after 8pm.
The production cut backs are now spreading form auto mobile to cotton industry, diamond industry & agri exporters’ dependant on US. The bad news engulfed the infrastructure slow down inspite of lower metal and cement process. The real-estate boom became a doom spoiled the spiraling steel prices party, now a situation to cut the production both hot rolled and cold rolled products. The fall in commodity prices did not helped the industry due to the wide-spread “fear of spending”, the sole reason for this slowdown/recession in the developing nations. The classical example is the shutdown of plants by reliance.
The local demand is not exhausted at the consumer level especially countries like India but the think-tank high level community spreading the voices of vicious feelings that “it could happen in India like US”. So the belt tightening measures controlled the loan disbursal and the consequential impact is known to every body.
NIFTY LEVELS will be posted in the follwing post after 8pm.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Inflation nose dived…..
The great surprise was the fall in the inflation, was below the 21 week level. The inflation was at 8.98% compared to 10.72%, week on week basis but the inflation was at 3.35% a year ago, brought some signs of faster deceleration. As a matter of fact the crude touched 21 month lows at 55 dollars but the Indian government taking time to reduce the local subsidized prices that could even make the inflation lower by 2-3 points lower but the Govt. is tries to meet the fiscal deficit targets and plans to reduce the subsidy burden.
The Indian equities running far behind the Asian peers due to the slow down in our economy and our inherent capacity to rescue from the grave situation is a challenge encouraged the Bears to take a beating on the street.
The markets started adjusting to ground realities as the steep correction from 4400 to 2250 level made a recovery upto 3250 level as a short covering, especially by the weak hands lot got exhausted and the longs if any were also un-winded above 3080 level where the retail investors entered.
There is no doubt that the smart money is entering in the equity market but confined to very selective stocks. The worrisome at this point is the failure of confidence due to the wide spread gloom across the world.
The yesterday laid down conditions were not met either on high side or on the closing basis but left some silver lining while recovering from the lows. The recovery crossed the 2870 level and the actual closing was at 2855 level but the adjusted level placed the Nifty closing was at 2848 level.
The Indian equities running far behind the Asian peers due to the slow down in our economy and our inherent capacity to rescue from the grave situation is a challenge encouraged the Bears to take a beating on the street.
The markets started adjusting to ground realities as the steep correction from 4400 to 2250 level made a recovery upto 3250 level as a short covering, especially by the weak hands lot got exhausted and the longs if any were also un-winded above 3080 level where the retail investors entered.
There is no doubt that the smart money is entering in the equity market but confined to very selective stocks. The worrisome at this point is the failure of confidence due to the wide spread gloom across the world.
The yesterday laid down conditions were not met either on high side or on the closing basis but left some silver lining while recovering from the lows. The recovery crossed the 2870 level and the actual closing was at 2855 level but the adjusted level placed the Nifty closing was at 2848 level.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
The IIP numbers effect….
The IIP numbers announced today were good because above the street expectation but not encouraging as they stand at 4.8% against last year 7% growth. The cumulative April-Sep growth was at 4.9% against 9.5% a year back. The big console was that these numbers are far better than the Aug. numbers at 1.3%.
The recent reports display a big concern about the future investments as the pull out close to Rs 47000 crores from our MFs reveals the faith in our markets and the economy as a whole. The redemption pressure increasing from the melting of value day after day and the cyclical effect is more dangerous than it looks. Now it is too late to sell and puts pressure on the mind due to the "actualised/accounted loss" rather than a "notional loss" that can run for a longer period with a hope of recovery.
The money may not come back to markets so easily as the stocks have to out-perform. But the stock values do not rise as fast as they were a year ago, because there was no chase after them. This grave situation looks/begs for an external investment support. This hypothetical situation has proximity to real situation then the FIIs are likely to buy our Indian blue chips much cheaper than they are today, that to after a considerable time. This opportunity empowers the FIIs to cleanse their home bound investment worries, and then they come back with revitalized strength to emerging markets.
NEVER FORGET that they come back with multicolor research reports that carry the “TREASURE HUNT OF THE EMERGING MARKETS”.
The strength waned…..
The serious knock was a surprise to many who are bullish above 3080 level, every reason to be so except the fear of “dark devil FII selling may occur, so let’s get the early bird opportunity to withdraw the money” is the kind of selling happened when the Asian counterparts start melting. The Nikki was down by 280 odd points when opened in the morning and the Hang Seng held no faith to hold the stocks put pressure on our markets.
The support technicals though lost some ground at the bottom but still a reason to smile for those who can average at the lower levels at 2630-21 level. The markets are under selling pressure for this day but the wipe out today posed a serious question to Bulls.
The developments across the globe are forcing the financial markets to look for bail out packages, now the auto-mobile sector is in the queue back at home the MF are looking for FMPs trouble and the growth slow down may demand a lower Nifty level. The correction is an adjustment as an answer to the demands.
The ONGC and RIL are still in good shape as they can rebound as ONGC is still above 711-20 level and the RIL is above 1115-20 level, until these levels taken out with vengeance, bull have every reason to smile to average the purchases. The real challenge for Nifty, has to cross the 3040 level tomorrow and shall try to close above 2860 even it is a negative close.
Sunday, November 09, 2008
STIMULUS PACKAGES….
The Governments across the Globe coming forward to announce stimulus packages that can bring confidence in the investor community, badly shaken by the recent turmoil. The Governments are happy to burn their night oil stock to tackle the emergency situation. The US bail out package, England’s rate cut and stimulus package. Now the China announced a package of more than 580 billion dollars.
A new idea that was floating around on the formation of a BRIC-Trade (Brazil, Russia, India and China), willing to forge a planned measures to increase trade and capital flows. This could be a one more plan to add to the Sarkozy’s sovereign wealth fund plan. The efforts are there across nations to fight against the high handed nature of US investment model and their nature of withdrawals. Hope for the Consistancy……….
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