Friday, June 10, 2011

THINK DIFFERENTLY

6 Jun, 2011, 11.00AM IST, Sanket Dhanorkar,ET Bureau

Buy stocks ignored by markets but have potential to gain

Would you have invested in Tata Motors in the early part of the last decade, when it was down in the dumps and shunned by everyone? Most likely you wouldn't have; in which case you would have missed out on a phenomenal rally of over 1,300% in its stock price. As equity investors, our tendency is to go with the prevailing market sentiment.

You may not be willing to accept it, but what others feel has a strong influence on your decision taking. If a particular stock or sector catches the fancy of

Dalal Street

, you may find yourself itching to get in on the action too. This 'herd mentality' is so ingrained in our psyche that, sometimes, it stops us from taking a rational view of the situation.

Ask anyone who bought into the technology euphoria at the turn of the millennium or those who chose to ignore the commodities boom that kick-started in 2002-3. It takes firm conviction and a lot of nerve to swim against the tide and pick (or avoid) stocks that are otherwise ignored (or coveted) by others. But this is the essence of contrarian investing. It is also the theme of an often sidelined category of mutual funds- contra funds. Let us examine whether it is beneficial to be a contrarian.

How does contrarian investing work?

Primarily, a contra fund or investor will invest in out-of-favour stocks that may hold promise not yet discovered by the overall market. Their task is to pick stocks that are wrongly shunned by the larger investor community. These may be companies that have sound operations and potential for a turnaround. Vetri Subramaniam, CIO, Religare Mutual Fund , explains: "It involves taking a positive view on a company much ahead of a change in market sentiment and consensus about it." As fund manager for Religare Contra Fund, his primary focus is to identify companies that are in a turnaround situation and those valued cheaply relative to their fundamental value.

Contrarians thus place bets according to what is rational rather than what is in vogue. In the current scenario, for instance, it would involve seeing through the widespread pessimism and picking out stocks whose low valuations do not reflect the true business potential and strength.

Contrarian investing need not be limited to a particular market situation; it can be profitably implemented in any circumstance. In most situations, there will be stocks that are trading at unfair valuations. The market would have either overbought some companies or neglected some it believes are not worth the risk. The contrarian investor has to judge where the broader market is missing the true story.

However, contra investing is not easy. An investor should have the ability to tune out the noise and murmurs coming from the marketplace. You should be able to stand firm in your conviction no matter what others are saying. You will also need to think out of the box to identify the opportunities that others may have missed.

What a contrarian can gain

For a contrarian investor, the payoff can be potentially rewarding. If your bet turns out right, the returns can be very high. This is because you are buying low and could, subsequently, sell high. The contrarian invests in a stock when it has a valuation gap. Gradually, as the market gets wind of the true potential of the company and makes a beeline for it, the stock price will rise.

For instance, Bharti Airtel was a beaten down stock till a year ago (trading at around Rs 250), as the stock market had reacted adversely to the tariff war among mobile operators. Since then the company has exhibited a penchant for growth by expanding its global footprint, launching next generation services and is better placed compared with its peers, riding on its management pedigree. The price has now surged by about 50%, with potential for further upside.

Just like most investors move in herds, fund managers tend to mimic each others' portfolios, thus offering little differentiation. Investors may find a way out of this herd mentality with the help of contra funds. This could be the ideal solution for someone willing to take on greater risk.

The problems of being a contrarian

Contrarian investing can be highly risky. Tarun Sisodia, director, institutional equities, Anand Rathi Securities, cautions: "Contrarian investing is a different philosophy. You should ensure that it fits your risk profile. Also, it should not form a major part of the portfolio." By courting stocks that are ignored by others, you may run the risk of bearing huge losses as the market may have valid reasons for staying away from them.

If your call doesn't work out, your money could go down the drain. For instance, airline stocks have been out of the market's radar for a while now and justifiably so. With rising air turbine fuel prices and heightened competition, most players have been piling on losses with no turnaround in sight. In this scenario, it wouldn't make sense to place faith in airline stocks.

Returns can be also very slow to materialise in this strategy. It is not likely to yield quick returns since a turnaround, if any, can take a lot of time. Patience is a virtue required of any investor, but is especially true for the contrarian.

Vetri agrees, "It requires a patient approach because very often one has to tolerate some degree of underperformance from the stock as the market may be slow to reward the change in the fundamentals of the company or the sector." You may have to stay invested in the fund or stock for a reasonably long period (at least 2-3 years). So if you are looking at building wealth fast, this is not the right option for you.

Performance of contra funds

People who invest in contra funds believe that as they are paying fund managers to take risks and bet against the market, this is exactly what they are getting. Unfortunately, this may not be the case. Some of the contra funds available today are contrarian only in name. They are not pure contra funds because they hold stocks that can be found in any ordinary equity fund's portfolio, making them no different from the rest.

If you are considering investing in a contra fund rather than doing it on your own, check how these funds have fared. SBI Magnum Contra, the first of its kind to be launched in the country, has delivered stellar returns (21.76% compounded annual growth rate) since its inception in 1997. However, it has witnessed a slide in performance of late.

Tata Contra has performed exceptionally over the past one year (16.4%), while Religare Contra has emerged the top performer over the 3-year period (13.5% CAGR). On the whole, however, contra funds haven't fared well as compared to multi-cap equity funds. In the past year, for instance, contra funds have averaged 5% returns while the broader category has yielded 8%. Over three years, where multi-cap schemes have delivered a CAGR of 7.38%, contra funds have only averaged 6.44%.

Consider these bets

If you are willing to take a higher risk and want to take some contra bets, here are some of them. Though the market, as a whole, is experiencing weakness currently, there are specific themes that are less favoured by investors. Ambareesh Baliga, COO, Way2Wealth Securities, believes markets always witness a rotation in sector performance every 2-3 years, where previous leaders might fall from their perch and laggards might march ahead. In this context, he feels that cement, oil & gas and hotels could provide good opportunities. Ambuja Cement, Petronet LNG, Reliance Industries and Indian Hotels are among his top picks from these sectors.

Another sector that has witnessed a fall in share prices is sugar. The surplus in domestic sugarcane production has limited the pricing power of sugar manufacturers. However, this domestic sugar balance is tighter than what the market believes, which could provide a support for sugar prices, says Morgan Stanley Research, whose preferred stock pick in this industry is Shree Renuka Sugars.

According to Morgan Stanley Research, consumer discretionary stocks, such as automobile and retail also seem to be bottoming out as the interest rate cycle reaches its peak. Its India Strategy report mentions: "Consumer discretionary stocks tend to trough with peaking rates. The RBI has taken us closer to the end of the rate cycle".

Sisodia believes that cement demand could pick up as construction activity improves in the future. Grasim Industries and ACC are his top picks in this sector. He is also positive on the prospects of the capital goods segment where he expects a recovery aided by a jump in the industrial capex.

Sisodia also believes that real estate stocks, which have been hammered by the markets largely due to corporate governance issues, could provide some specific opportunities where governance is not a problem. Godrej Properties is his pick in this category.

THANKS TO ET..GOOD CONTRIBUTION....

Tuesday, June 07, 2011

STOCK MARKET -CHILDSPLAY

THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT CHILD'S PLAY

BUT ALL PLACE THEIR BETS

RIGHT FROM THE LEGEND- LIVERMORE

TO ALL PERSONS WHO SACRIFICED THEIR LIFE.

BECAUSE IT ALLOWS ALL BUT THE FIGHT IS

WITH BIG STILL THE WEAK CLAIM.....

A NEVER ENDING STORY.........

THE CULPRIT IS " ................."

YOU

IMAGINE

YOU

IMAGINE TILL YOU FIND THE ANSWER.......

I AM LEFT WITH HEAVY HEART BUT THE FACT HAS NO LIFE-YOU ARE SOME ONE SPECIAL IN MY LIFE EVEN THEN YOU ARE NO MORE.

YOU ARE MY TEACHER, BUT THE LESSONS TAUGHT WERE FORGOTTEN- the best example is your last quote..
June-2011

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

An investor's worst enemy is not the stock market, but his own emotions .

A PERSON WITH AFFECTION.
A MAN WITH LOVE
A HUMAN BEING WITH HUMANITY....

I STILL REMEMBER YOU AND OF-COURSE THE GREATEST MISTAKE COMMITTED FOR EVER.
A lot I can remember you are not there to share.

Monday, May 30, 2011

HOPE GENERATED>>>??????

The bulls took charge of the last two days of the week. The FO closing gave good support to push the Nifty to higher levels. The Nifty levels above 5450 level is neutral but the challenge lies a head above 5520 level. The previous support 5460 which has become a platform for bulls now became a line of battle.

The strong move of Nifty heavy weights like Reliance from 906 to 953 level and ONGC fro 261 to 285 level and the metals have propping support. The surprising but heaving beating took place in one time favourate counter like TataMotors is a sign of tiredness of hope and the weakness of strength in Nifty.

The Rpower shown a big jump in its operations and bottom line is a cut attached from Relinfra. The ADAG companies are extremely nervous withier top boss position and the financial well being. It was not written any where but the 2G scam is hunching on the fall of empire in the whirl wind of turmoil. The food inflation is increasing and the growth targets are being contracted going forward. The highest growth that can be expected around 8.5% in the forthcoming years may be most challenging to the incumbent Govt to face the general election. The opposition is fall short of funds and popularism may form a united combat.

The economy as such is doing well and the Nifty on the long term trend is good. The Most difficult situation for bulls to keep nifty above 5800 level, so is the difficult task to bears to run the Nifty below 5280 level for some time. The task at this juncture looks easy for bears to crack the barrier but that is as well a mounting task. The monsoon touched the NW coast early and the onset is on time. Now the biggest guess is the spread across the country and the flood situation in some parts.

So the Nifty for now is well placed above 5360 as a bottom and the building of bottom on pessimism is taking place. The run to 5685 may not be so easy but the path going forward looks to that direction. The individual stock performances on their capacity of the results announced and the outlook to do well in future may get support at these levels or get hammered to adjust shape by the Push and Pull of Bulls and Bears.

The Reliance is struggling hard to find gas in KG basin so is the investor support. The Tatasteel did well at home but the foreign woes are deep to describe. The ONGC may see some support on disinvestment mat touch 296-298 level but get selling supply above 304 level. The DLF is making news with its reality asset bank but the stock may find difficult to stay above 250 level.

Sunday, May 22, 2011

The tussle is for a…….?????

The last weak Nifty lost 60 points but ONGC SBI and TataMotors lost their ground considerably. The situation has played stock specific news and influence the Nifty accordingly. The near term positive news for bulls is declining inflation and good monsoon forecast. The headwinds for bulls are domestic issues and the global growth issues.

The policy developments are now favouring the bears. The Govt is insisting ONGC to bear extra burden being an upstream company along with Gail. The RBI is insisting the PSU banks to meet the pension obligations along with BASEL norms. The 2G scam is unfolding all the top brass of political and corporate icons throttled with the CBI filings and it is on for next two to three months. The best opportunity available to bears to trap the bulls that are left opened and still challenging the odd developments.

The short positions built over in the Bank Nifty right from 11800 to 10500 level and Nifty from 5950 to 5400 level is enough to take the Nifty to sub 4900 level. The last hope built around at the 5400 level for bulls can save them from the debacle and play a safe exit if they could push Nifty above 5820 level. AS a whole the top 10 companies except ICICI and TCS, produced so far are tepid results. The global exports are increasing but the profitability of the companies is not encouraging. The tussle is interesting and the fight can create a sell off by FIIs if the crisis in the global economy worsens as the level of uncertainty of US recovery is increasing and the Syrian crisis, sovereign debt crisis of Greece is hurting.

The fundraising plans of Reliance for $1.5 billion and ICICI for $1.1 billion and the ties for business and trade expansion with South Africa is a good sign for our markets. The steel industry is suffering with coal shortage and the same problem transferred to power sector. The infra sector growth is getting squeezed due to limited disbursements and the push has taken aback seat.

The relentless selling happened in the top market cap companies be it ONGC, SBI, RIL and Tatamotors. These companies lost their support levels. The HUL, Ranbaxy and L&T are now in bull grip but they too likely to loose the support once Nifty trades below 5420 level. The bulls made good effort to come back when the assemble elections announced and on the positive uptrend seen in global indices.

The UBS positive rating to RIL and a target price of 1170 stopped the selling but still the shorts were not covered. The RIL likely to cut the yearly low but the stock above 945 could delay the eventuality. The L&T results gave hope to infra companies but it is stock specific. The SBI placed the negative view on banks with its NPA provisioning rather than the pension provision. The stock is extremely finding difficult to rise above 2350-80 level, very likely to touch 1850 level in due course.

The FMCG bag of good results with pharma can no longer save the fall of Nifty but can provide some avenue for parking the investment. The mid cap are attractive from these levels as the fall provide an opportunity to invest but the time frame can be any body’s guess.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Inevitable but......

Leaving Infosys like daughter''s marriage: Narayana MurthyOn Wednesday 18 May 2011, 12:01 PM

New Delhi, May 18 (PTI) Leaving Infosys to N R Narayana Murthy was like parents sending away their daughter after her marriage, the founder and outgoing chairman has said in his last letter to the company''s shareholders.
"The best analogy that I can think of for this separation between Infosys and me is that of one''s daughter getting married and leaving her parents'' home," Murthy said in an emotional letter to Infosys'' shareholders.
Having nurtured the country''s leading IT firm for the last 30 years, Murthy would be succeeded by eminent banker K V Kamath as Infosys'' Chairman with effect from August 21 and would thereafter become ''Chairman Emeritus''.
Murthy, in his letter published in the company''s annual report for 2010-11, went on to say that he had to go through tough times explaining to his son and daughter about whom he loved more -- Infosys or the family.
Murthy said that his children do not believe him, even today, that he loved them more than anything else.
"When I was spending 16-hour days in the office and was away from home for as many as 330 days in a year, it was hard for my children to believe in my commitment to the family," he said.
Terming the Infosys journey as an integral part of his life, Murthy said that most of his colleagues tell him that "Infosys is an inseparable part of me and I am an inseparable part of Infosys." "I have been the Number One actor in every major decision taken in the company. I have rejoiced in every significant milestone of the company. I have commiserated in every false step that this company has taken," he asserted.
Giving the analogy of a daughter''s marriage, Murthy said: "Yes, the parents will be there when she needs them and they will be happy that she is starting a new life in an exciting new environment." He went on to explain in his letter the entire journey of the company to become one of the leading technology majors of the country.
Wishing the current management of the company luck for the future, Murthy said that he would be always there, whenever needed by Infosys.

Infy gave away Rs 50,000 crore of stock options to employees

On Wednesday 18 May 2011, 2:36 PM

Bangalore, May 18 (PTI) Infosys Chief Mentor N R Narayana Murthy has said the company has given away Rs 50,000 crore (at current stock prices) of stock options to its employees since inception.
Writing in an article titled "Goodbye, folks. March on with values...", in the NASDAQ-listed firm''s 2010-11 annual report, Murthy said, "I do not know of any Indian company that has given away as much as Rs 50,000 crore (at current stock prices) of stock options to employees".
"Today, every Indian employee at every level who joined us on or before March 2010 is a stockholder of Infosys", he said.
Murthy is stepping down as non-executive Chairman and Chief Mentor on August 20 this year when he turns 65. He has been named Chairman-emeritus for life by the board of the company, which is completing 30 years in 2011.
Murthy said Infosys had demonstrated that businesses can be run legally and ethically; that it was possible for an Indian company to benchmark with the global best; and that any set of youngsters with values, hard work, team work and a little bit of smartness can indeed be successful entrepreneurs.
"This way, we have enthused millions of young men and women in India. This, in my opinion, is Infosys'' greatest contribution", he said.
"The crucial things we have to do in the future are: recognise our weaknesses, be open-minded about learning from people better than us; learn from our mistakes and not repeat them; be humble, honest and courteous; benchmark with the best in every dimension; use innovation to perform at global levels; and create a worthwhile vision and improve every day", Murthy said.
He added: "This is how our mantra of focusing on speed, imagination and excellence in execution will take this company very far

Thanks to PTI and to Yahoo…..

Sunday, May 15, 2011

The Policy push???....

The election results are better than expected to Congress than to any body else. Now the challenge how to take the next level of growth wave with out falling the inflation trap based growth. Many might have predicted but I published the Cabinet reshuffle in my previous posts.

The biggest advantage to govt is that they can rely on reforms but not on opportunity for grafting corruption line. The PM stand on the corruption shall become visible rather than keeping himself above. The support and pressure from Mamataji may become crucial and the push and pull be violent with the recent success. The plans to rise diesel price may get stiff resistance from allies may save the market also. The corporate scions are welcoming the change but the change shall take place at the centre on crucial issues like FDI and PF funds to markets.

The major developments are election results and the Wipro buying stake in Brazil company, UID’s 40000 cr plan to outsource services, Arvind joing hand with Tatas for residential and commercial buildings at Ahemedabad. The Suzlon positive results may keep the stock in positive territory.

The rise in dollar index may trigger for the sell of in emerging markets especially country like India which is scarifying growth for controlling inflation. Now the Growth may become a potential element rather than an on going process. The momentum may get disturbed may create crippling effect after wards. The threatening ones are like PMEAC head Rangarajan suggesting for rising further rates and freeing diesel. The US late recovery and need for raising further debt for more spending by Obama may not be a good sign to markets as the fiscal debt of US for now is OK but further rise may have cascading effects.

The Nifty is good above 5550 and the lower level 5460 shall not be pierced in this week as the jubilance of Bulls shall take the index to next level. The biggest hurdle for this movement is RIL, HDFC and Infosys. The positive stocks like HUL, ITC, ONGC and the Pharma lot may turn a drag if the Nifty fails to trade above 5640 level.

The Midcaps are out performing and will continue their journey despite of lack of momentum in Nifty. The metal pack and the IT pack shall turn their Southward journey to upward other wise the weakens will worsen and the Nifty may crumble. To avoid this situation TCS shall trade above 1153, Infosys above 2950 and RIL above 965 level. The better upward momentum HUL shall not trade below 296 level.

Sunday, May 08, 2011

THE WEAK BOTTOMS MADE.......!!!!!!!!

It is difficult to predict the market at this juncture because of the relentless selling by the Bear for a serious reason that the RBI, as a matter of fact the Govt. in power wanted to be in power again by controlling the inflation. The spiraling inflation is a night mare to many, especially for the central bank chief.
The big news now is the fall of crude to touch the 100 dollar mark from its peak.The Govt is in a fix to increase the selling price of bear the loss as it is?.The mouth pies are accepting the rise but it will impact the economy badly at this critical juncture. The cost of funds putting lot of pressure on the expansion plans and the country may miss the opportunity developing across the globe to export. the exports are picking up in strides with 35% growth may get dampened by the shelfing of the growth plan to drawing room.The commodity fall is good to certain extent, it will reduce the input cost but beyond a point it impacts the inventory cost and company's final product selling price. It is very likely that the consumer may post pone the buying may change the whole scenario.
The election results will decide the trend and couple of ministers portfolio changes are expected at the center. The Congress party is preparing for a comeback into power, is a challenge for them to please the common man and the corporates.
The pressure of selling in Nifty has been well absorbed by the FII in the bottom layer. The FII buying at the bottom supports is a good sign but not sufficient to lift the markets from the sagging bottoms. The Nifty has a series of resistances right from 5600,5640,5720 and at 5785.The bottom support for now is ok with 5400 level but the selling in banks and RIL can become disastrous as the bull unwinding will start below these level. The fundamental challenge is now with the RIL and HDFC. The under performance of these counters for any longer can change the sentiment from bad to worse.
The ITC the one time Bull grip stock finding no buyers at 180 level may lead it to 166-69 level. The RBI rate hike can be counterbalanced with positive policy announcements. Now the light at the other end of the tunnel is with new banking licenses and the permissions to insurance company's listing and hiking FDI limit.
the long term bull market story will be in books unless Nifty trades above 5820-40 level in next couple of months.

Thursday, May 05, 2011

MANAGEMENT PSYCHOLOGY OF SUCCESS

THE "SUCCESS" IS A DRIVE FOR MANY "SUCCESSFUL PEOPLE".

MANAGEMENT PSYCHOLOGY OF SUCCESS- WORLD OVER COVERAGE OF SUCCESSFUL PEOPLE DECISION MAKING PROCESS AND THE PLAN OF ACTIONS TO ACHIEVE SUCCESS.

A BOOK NEEDS TO BE PUBLISHED TO ACCOMPLISH MY GOAL TO PUBLISH BOOKS FOR THE NEXT GENERATION. THE AIM IS TO HELP PEOPLE TO ACHIEVE SUCCESS IN THEIR LIVES.

BNR

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

HUMAN CAPITAL - COOL MONEY

Indian firms make profit of Rs 6 lakh per employee

PTI, On Tuesday 19 April 2011, 3:34 PM

New Delhi: Indian companies pay a salary of Rs 4.8 lakh to each of their employee on an average, but earn a profit of Rs 6 lakh per employee in return, says a new survey.
According to a study by Pricewaterhouse Coopers (PwC) -- Measuring Human Capital - Driving Business Results -- organisations in India pay an average remuneration of Rs 4.8 lakh and earn Rs 6 lakh of profit per employee, which makes the human capital return ratio on investment to 1.79 for organisations in the country.
Besides, companies make an investment of Rs 7,000 on learning and development (L&D) per employee.
It further said that Indian companies make a pure profit of Rs 15 from every Rs 100-worth revenue generated by their each employee.
"With India being the fastest growing economy, organisations that would maximise their human capital contribution to business performance, would be the ones to best leverage the positive economic environment," PwC India Leader People and Change practice Sankar Ramamurthy said.
Among sectors, engineering and manufacturing generate the most revenue and profits per employee followed by fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and pharmaceutical space.
Moreover, organisations with higher revenue base incur 1.3 times higher cost per employee but also earn 1.4 times higher profit per employee organisations compared with lower revenue base companies.
The report, which is based on a survey of 37 firms across different sectors noted that Indian organisations spend about Rs 25,500 per hire on an average.
However, FMCG and other unclassified sectors spend more than double the amount towards their recruitment. This could be because of the high cost of their recruitment teams.
The report further said that information technology and information technology enabled services (IT/ITeS) sector recruits the highest number of graduates, but when it comes to retaining entry level talent, engineering and manufacturing sector leads the industry.
IT/ITeS, which has the lowest spend on L&D per employee, witness the highest termination and resignation rate as well.

Thanks to Yahoo

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Bulls or Bears, who favoured???!!!!!

The markets closed on a positive note favouring the Bulls but the Bear are confident to stop these people not to cross 5930. Does this happen??, the biggest challenge opened like the IPL season.

The Indian corporate giant Reliance (consolidated yearly sales over 2.65 lakh crores and 20,200 crore net) has huge reserves like its gas reserves, pile of cash ( more than 40,000 crs) at its disposal will become a good investment opportunity in the upcoming LTE based broadband wireless national coverage can change the Telecom industry with more M&As. The groups foray is proved right and now their immediate focus is Telecom. The BWA auction gave a paralleled advantage for is expansion. The results of Reliance 4^th quarter is more than 75500 cr+ with 5376 cr at net, are good bur not at the GRM front. The higher crude prices helped to increase the sales but not fully reflected in the net profit. The stock is fully discounted unless there are major discoveries on gas front or on market make up front, fore seeing a great undoubted revenue flow, the stock’s Price to Earnings can cap this rise to 1070-1120 higher side under the current Nifty level. The strategic alliances made are to be converted in to operational cash flow streams.

The TCS, growth on YOY (37,325 cr) or qoq both are impressive, made its mark in improving net profit margin and the operational income growth is also decent. The global IT recovery is definitely a boost to its revenue generation. The stock hit the yearly high at 1245 but has the potential to cross with 15% on the top of it because of positive out look as they suggested growth in similar terms. So the stock is definitely a market performer bias to outperform.

The banking major, Axis bank (15,300 cr yearly income) also gave good results for this 4^th quarter with 4300 cr+ income and net profit at 1020 cr+, with improved efficiency especially in corporate banking. The EPS stood above 80 and the stock has fully priced, but can touch 1680-1720+ range when Nifty crosses 6300 level.

The Nifty is very positively closed above 5800 level baring 3 times below this level, but the weakness can be seen only below 5720 level. The markets may disapprove he RIL performance can place Nifty below 5750 level can be expected only to the close of expiry. The markets may see selling pressure due to US worries, rising crude and the negative news (lack of positive news, due to elections and tension on the out come). Incase RIL trades below 1019 level, is a bad sign not only to stock but to the market as well. The efforts of Bulls to be rebuild on some good news.

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

The tussle is tough????

The rate cut to US securities is really as big jolt to the bulls across the globe as their indices growth is in tandem irrespective of the local issues. The Nifty could hold above the 200 day DMA and the bottom building will happen once it trades above 5830 level for next big leap. The crucial juncture is at 5778-85 level Bulls have to acquire and bears has to protect.

The big news is RIL will use 4G for its BWA, telecom fore ray into telecom with 25000 cr investment in next 5 years. The appointment of Mr. Vivek Lal former Head of Boeing Indian operations confirms its interests to focus on Disaster Management with safety and security. The set back to Reliance at this juncture is their Hydrocarbon business plans. The DGH rejects its 2 well discoveries and asked to resubmit their budgets.

The results declared BHEL, HDFC Bank, IDBI bank, Indus are showing decent growth in their profits and the NPA are not alarming. The retail banking operations of these banks are also providing good margin to their bottom line. BHEL lead consortium won 1600 cr nuclear power project along with Alstom.

The metrological department expects a normal monsoon for this year, but it is too early to confirm the progress

The burgeoning power crisis in India has given opportunity for many players to participate in the UMPP, now the power companies are facing in the fuel supply, especially coal shortage. Thanks to the environmental concerns for new coal blocks to be opened in the dense forests. The floods in Australia gave a boost to price hike but the scarcity is continuing for this commodity of black gold, globally.

The leadership change at Infosys be it Mr.Narayana Murty who reties by August, Kris will fill the gap but the current jolt from Mohan das Pai and Dinesh is a big challenge to Mr.Sibulal, the last leader of the founders to chair the top slot. The biggest challenge now for Infosys for next decade or so is lack of charismatic face to lead the 1.3 lakh human resources across the globe and build confidence not only on the capabilities to deliver but on the transparency and client confidentiality. The transition may bring down the stock to its yearly lows and may underperform than the indices. The stock fails to trade above 3030 immediately and float above 2930 for next couple of months may bring this giant to its size by cutting the extra premium, may trade at 15-18 times of PE, can place it close to 1800-2000 the first stop will be at 2580-40 range. The ability to win big contacts may stop the fall immediately with some good announcements otherwise the result is sour to taste and written clearly on the wall.

The strength of emerging markets like India are independently dependent not the bourses but on the capital flows and the M&As. The human capital and untapped natural resources are our strength but need some policy decision to unleash the potential. The Govt. has committed in its statements but a back seat due to the corruption charges. The Nifty is likely to consolidate in the broad range of around these 4500-6500 range for a longer period than anticipated due to the other headwinds like inflation, corruption, global slow recovery and the next big threat is the “value of Dollar” and the acceptance by BRICS any longer

Sunday, April 17, 2011

THE RIFT- A CHALLENGE????

There is no dissent between SD Shibulal & me: TV Mohandas Pai

Devina Sengupta, ET Bureau, Apr 16, 2011, 03.29am IST

Mostly seen in shirts with Infosys monogrammed on them, TV Mohandas Pai , one of the faces of the IT bellwether, cannot wear his company's name on his sleeves after June 12 anymore. Yesterday, after the announcement that he would be leaving the company he has spent 17 years in, Pai wondered aloud what he would do with all those shirts.

It's said you have a rivalry with Shibulal...

I do not know where this speculation started from. There is absolutely no dissent between Shibu and me. I have never hankered for the post of either the CEO or the COO, and therefore there has been no discord on this matter. I had been toying with the idea (of leaving) for some time. Since last year, I have tried to persuade (NR Narayana) Murthy quite a few times to let me go. After 17 years, no one wants to do the same thing. Therefore, the time was right for me to move on.

Didn't Murthy's persuasion make you rethink?

Yes, Murthy did not want to let go of me, and asked me if I wanted the posts (CEO/COO). He wanted me to follow the usual track of working with the company till I was 60. I refused. Although it is not easy to persuade Murthy, the winning argument was that "it's time to let me step down so that those younger can also have their time under the sun". And with Raghavendra K (now in Infosys BPO) and Nandan (Nilekani) moving, he is more prepared now, though the blow was not softer.

What about those who are at the helm and will likely be there till they are 60? How did they react to your reasoning?

I cannot take a decision for others, but it is my opinion that others should be allowed their time as well. If we remain, then we are always there to be consulted; decisions will not be taken independently. But I am not the example for others.

The younger lot at Infosys has not always agreed with the way the old guard worked. Is now, then, the time for change in the company?

Infosys has always allowed discussion and debate, where everyone can express without fear but without being disrespectful. They are allowed to make changes as long as it does not interfere with the company's value system.

The Economic Times coverage uncovers........thanks to ET-team

The CROSS roads to many????

The Bulls diehard effort to keep the indices in positive territory was spoiled by the IT bellwether weak results and the top brass churning. The numbers are weak but excusable in any give other scenario than this time, cost an wealth erosion of close to 10% in a single session. The rupee strengthen in the lat quarter added fuel to fire for this disappointment for other mid-cap IT’s.

Mr. MohanDas Pai, the missed stalwart of Infosys, jolted the company and the news maker at many a time, confronted for top slot but now decided to pursue his dream passion after the long drawn aspire to be a CEO ended. The diminishing light of hope on a D-day triggered for new avenues in the emerging country like India to one’s worth.

As far as numbers language is concerned, Nifty is good for Bulls when it trades above or in the range of 5820-75 with an upward bias. The Nifty is being guided in a band of 5440-6030 for at least the elections results and the popular mandate is tested. There is no doubt that the ruling Govt. There is a tight band move of 5300-5775 range for above close to 45 days is now the biggest challenge for the bears to crack the fort. The recent developments in the Europe and the rising inflation in India are headwinds for the rise. The Infosys spooked the hopes of the Bulls though the Global IT scenario looks bright.

The BRICS meeting and there on the Nuclear deals with Kazakhstan shall bring some hope to energy sector. The trade relations among the BRICS and the local currency transactions shall weaken the dollar further may offer more trouble to US dominance.

The Reliance is now in a very narrow band of 1210 to 980 range for quite long time may spur a war between the Bulls and Bears as the weightage in Nifty is an advantage to Bears, may bring this to 875-860 level that may pull the Nifty to lower levels.

Thursday, April 07, 2011

The unnatural….naturally?

There is no rule built in the market to go about. This is the only reason for the existence of the betting centre’s across the globe on economy and growth, though legally accepted by the Governance participated by the risk lovers be it highly knowledgeable or the highly paid market makers.

The market allows all payers with out distinction or discrimination. This is the reason why the retail flies flock around the burning flame. So the market behaiour is unnatural in its sense while reacting or responding to an event/news but the fact is that is the natural behavior.

The dependence on FII in flow and liquidity is the driving force for the run in the recent past. But the question is the driving force is BLIND?. If so, who are the other players living in the system with ignorance. There is single no bad news highlighted for the last 14-16 days across the globe despite the spiraling crude price, tensions in Libya no good economic scenario in Japan. In India, the heads at RBI started accepted the new norm while failed to control the inflation as “ high inflation in high growth economy is acceptable”.

Now coming to the numbers, the Nifty shorting was initiated after the March expiry and the Nifty has risen 100+ points from there. The retailer is accepting the rise as rise but it was inflated. I am not in the camp that the markets will crumble immediately but definitely touch the 5640 level when it falls below 5850 level. The range established is for the sake of selling but not for the further rise. The Banking sector will get its bone cracked to a level where the yearly lows are challenged very easily. The leaders like SBI shall not trade above 2865-69 level and the ICICI shall not trade above 1140 level.

Sunday, April 03, 2011

The BULLS charged WELL ?....

The Indian markets enjoyed the best part of market capitalization rise with positive outlook of economy, negligible damage of Japans’ disaster and the positive out look of US. The Warrenbuffett visit and his BIG dream of India made an upsurge in the whole scenario, though temporary but the impact is decent.

The Indian auto mobile zoooom is continuing unabated. The largest passenger vehicle manufacturer Maruti made impressive rise above 22%, TataMotors above 11%, M&M above 18& and the two wheeler manufacturers also posted above 20% growth YOY is a very positive sign despite of constraints and rate hikes. The challenge ahead is to maintain the growth in view of the Japan,s components supply disruptions.

The Textile industry has got the Govt favour by more than 7400 crs than earlier year for TUF and the industry is also doing well. The rising of cost of cotton is more than anticipated at raw material front which is the highest in the last decade. After decades of waiting, the promoters of major textiles companies are interested to take advantage of the uptrend in the business cycle like Arvind, Naharspinning, Aditya Birla Nuvo, Digjam and Ginnifilaments.

The Nifty has surprised many while scaling to 5850 level from 5300 level as there is no single stop in the journey. The traders who used to go short after 3 days got trapped and now struggling to manage. The rise in the stock markets is a global phenomenon; the bulls trapped the bears at the bottom layer of this upsurge when the Japans tragedy is prevalent in news. But the so called negative news was not vanished as the crude is surging, gold and silver are at non stop mode , the raw material cost of many industries is burgeoning creates supply side inflation. The aftermath calculations/impact of Japan earth quake, repercussions of weak global especially EU economy is a big challenge to stock markets to grow further from these levels.

The Individual names like Reliance and ONGC are in bull grip and the technology stocks are in buying mode with a positive outlook can keep the markets to float above 5680 level. Now the challenge is whether to take the Nifty to next level being bulls in full control of the situation or Bull may be trapped at higher levels bruise beating by Bears taking advantage of the global economic weakness.

CONGRATS TO INDIA

WE ARE CHAMPIONS IN CRICKET AND IN EMERGING MARKETS.

CONGRATULATIONS TO TEAM INDIA.

CONGRATS TO BULLS

CONGRATS TO EVERY WEALTH CREATOR IN INDIA, MADE INDIA PROUD.

THOSE WHO LOVED INDIA, LIVED FOR INDIA, MADE INDIA PROUD ARE CONGRATULATED.

Sunday, March 27, 2011

Best weekly rally- a boon for now???

The bottoms are intact for now despite of the global negative news. The strength of Nifty is now better than a week ago and the whole scenario is changed the technicals for now as good bottom support is at 5400 and the 5500 is a good support where bulls can take advantage of buying again on average cost. The strength gained can be even extended upto 5440 level. So the Bears have to wait for a longer period than anticipated for yearly low cuts of Nifty and its major supporting stocks.

The Bears can say thanks to the rising crude prices, Libya crisis and the Fukushima nuclear crisis. As a matter of fact now the Japan nuclear crisis is more of an environmental concern than of economic concern. The economic impact of the Tsunami can be seen after 15^th April, so that the testing time to japans ability to face and come out of this grave crisis is tested against the burgeoning power crisis and the exhausted inventory of the industry. The devastation effect was on the infrastructure especially power crisis. This is seen as immediate impact on the Japan’s automobile industry and their ancillary.

In India the growth indicators are now favouring the Bulls but the future is looking bleak as the inflation is stubborn to yield below 8% and the Govt spending likely to be eased. The political situation is becoming fluid and the populist support to Congress is decreasing due to scams and the gratification charges. The Central govt is not strong to make any big policy changes that can add value to markets other than the GST, banking amendment bill. The serious concern is now on the survival of the Manmohan Singh ability as PM to lead a Govt. with little damage to populist measures initiated and the corruption charges being faced.

Saturday, March 26, 2011

Where are we now???? any way....

Where are we now? with the built-up bottoms …..

..........EXACTLY 4 DAYS AWAY FROM MARCH F&O CLOSING.

The Nifty has made a case for it self to build its bottoms on the strong foundations admist of global turmoil such as natural calamities, manmade wars, and uproars against regimes. The severe deep cut from 6300 level to 5180 level gave an opportunity to build the bottoms at 5200 level and from there on at 5650 level. The bottoms are built up for sure provided it stays above 5370-80 and crossed the 5540-30 level with confidence.

NOW THE CURRENT PRICES ARE ALSO EXACTLY AT( same levels) 4 DAYS AHEAD OF FEBRUARY CLOSING.

OFCOURCE there are some out performers like Reliance by Rs 7%, LIC is also by 6%, Kotak bank up by 8%, Axis up by 8%, Coal India is up above by 18% and Relcap up by 20%but the disappointment is with SesaGoa by 8%, Ranbaxy by 12%.

The HLL under performed where as ITC out performed. SBI, Tatamotors and Tatasteel are underperforming by 4-6%.

The Nifty is just 1% up………………OK

Tuesday, March 01, 2011

Budget-2011-12- YES____But????....

The Pranab’s budget is same as earlier to focus on demand and propel growth. Te rural demand and in house economy building is good but the corporate houses are to be taken care as well.

The Soaps and Agarbatti companies share lots of fragrance of success.

The GST will lure all but the waiting is more painful to FMGC companies.

The cold chain and the chain action of profit growth is assured to those companies but the rise of copper may put some pressure.

The ready made branded garments put some 10% higher “pride cost” of buying but the quality was at yesterdays, level.

The low cost housing below 25 lakhs is the next mantra but the rise in the cement prices hampers the construction growth. The mall growth and SEZ growth get hampered and a severe blow to high rise illuminated luxury shopping. The IT and ITes are at foul cry with the introduction of MAT to SEZ. The big brother Reliance joins the group to provide chorus.

A severe blow to SESAGOA and others involved in miming of iron ore exports. The local sourcing of quality iron is at cheaper and easier than earlier.

The MAT was raised from 18-18.5% but the Corporate surcharge was reduced from 7.5% to 5%.

The good is the automobiles were spared from rise in excise duty.

A cool heath and rise in hospital bill and including Insurance tax is like filling the coffer with smile and sending the coffin.

The automobile is vrooming, banking sector in neutral, cement is cool, diamonds and jewelry lost the shining, IT is totally down, construction ok but infra is good with rising costs but power sector is good, steel is good, the FMCG is with fragrance, phama needs a dose of pill but the corporate hospital and the AC hotels that serve a cool beer needs to pay the service tax. Those who want to fly shall pay more and their branded garment costs a lot. The oil and exploration is in demand with energy so is the power sector. Enjoy the budget but not the markets????????.

So sail with world markets and down with our weight unless or MF attract large capital INFLOW.