Bulls have many things to say…!

In my earlier posts titled- The deep pockets benefits…..? “The Nifty August series has to trade above 4525 level immediately to confirm the bull move with in 3-4 trading sessions, other wise the damage can even wipe out the image of India’s growth story”.

The up move is to make the bears to cover the shorts at an early date and make the buying averages are more economical. A strong move after a steep fall helps the bulls because the bears sell low and buy at high price.
The ITC stock acted in line with the expectation touched 175, RIL resumed its journey above 1865 to 1900 range, ONGC traded above 900+, and the Ranbaxy added Rs15/-. The Tata Steel though moved up but could not cross 661 level very important to do so. The IDFC and Idea made very good moves.
Now the Nifty face resistance at 4555-59 level and it is likely that the banks see profit booking will bring down the Nifty to 4445 level, the best support to maintain the ongoing bull move.

Does FEAR over come the hope?

As posted on Sunday, the markets took support at 4403, SBI crossed 1549 high and touched 1614+, RIL took support at 1839. The Rel.cap pierced the bottom support and ITC became weak, just above the good support level. The fear of holding the longs pared the earlier gains at the fag end of the session.
The Nifty support at 4391-93, next at 4347-43 level. The Nifty may trade above 4463 and likely to touch 4508-4511. In case Nifty fails trade above 4481 before 2 pm it is very likely that it could have Southward journey due to credit policy or fear to hold longs. The RIL shall resume up move and trade above 1866, ONGC above 901, Infy above 1991, TCS above 1153, Wipro above 501-03 levels to see the Nifty move above 4491 immediate resistance level.
The smaller banks likely to surge up, the telecom stocks are under pressure and see some correction before they move up. Ranbay is in the news so is other pharma companies. The ITC has to move up above 170 to see renewed up move, other wise simply exit.
Now the globe is green and looking other markets to participate in the heartening movement at the indices. The top news today is RBI view on monetary policy, very likely to continue the earlier one. The results-Hindalco, Tata Motors, Tulip, Bajaj Hindustan, Aurobindo, Birla corp., BEL and BRFL

Fear & Greed rules the market!

The local conditions developed for an up move but the fear over the developments of global weaknesses and the rising crude price is the concern.
The HUL, RIL and SBI did their part at their end but the street response to it is difficult to predict. As of now the fear is more threatening investors to go long or to keep their holdings in this turbulent times.
Now the numbers game- Incase nifty high don’t cross 4481 weak, trades below 4441 very weak likely to touch 4383 next 4341-39 range. RIL has good support at 1839-37, trades below sell all del., the markets take longer period to recover. Incase ONGC trades below 881-83 level, the markets will touch 4140 level very easily.
The good supports- SBI has at 1464-61, RCOM at 510-512, Tata steel 621-23, Sail 138-139, Rel.cap at 1174-71 again at 1147-49; ICICI at 881-83, Bharti at 873-71.
As of now the other part of the world is melting, in any case these three stocks shall trade above their best support levels to see the steep fall as correction-- ITC trades below 163, HUL trades below 188-89, RIL shall not trade below 1815 will make the things worsen.

The consolation in slaughtering!

The stock markets can be compared with a battle field- “It is important to kill the rival opponents but it is more important to survive to enjoy the fruits of success”.
The silver lining in the darkness at these times is to get support from the biggies of the street. The RIL and SBI results were better than expected for this quarter can make a seal to the bleeding market. In the present context, I foresee a better come back as the scrips tumbled on low volume and bottom fishing from the institutions may save the markets.
In case Nifty gets support at 4401-03, RIL close above 1881, SBI crosses a high above 1549 then the worst is not as severe as it was pronounced. The tech majors with stood the global tremors, the after effects are even more important to the market. In case they crumble, they simply add fuel to the fire. As a matter of fact many Nifty companies are trading above their best support levels that were intact. The major results of BHEL, RCOM, Tata Steel, Tata Motors…yet to come, can save the indices. A word of caution, the road a head will be clearly visible only when the dust settles/ fog melts.

The Deep Pockets benefit the most…..?

The fall is so steep that the immediate support levels of all the stocks were broken except Infy. good above 1970 and to some extent TCS stayed above 1153. The IDFC and Idea stayed above the support level of 126 and 118-119 level. The stocks like ITC, Ranbaxy and Moser Baer improved their bottom support.
The Nifty August series has to trade above 4525 level immediately to confirm the bull move with in 3-4 trading sessions, other wise the damage can even wipeout the image of India’s growth story. Now the question at this hour is “who will save from this crisis?”. The domestic mutual funds have more liquids funds at their disposal and the Govt. institutions are capable enough to absorb the flow but they need assurance from the retail investors without pressing the re-dumption button.
The steep fall in the indices and tumbling of the prices help the deep pocked institutions and the HNIs whose staying power is beyond weeks and months. These are the times they enjoy the fall, use most of their money to buy the blue chips and investing in the multi-baggers. The retail investors sell in panic at most of the times because they take the leverages in anticipation of early and easy bucks. So be cool and rise money to make money. The long-term investors can accumulate the growth stocks when the Nifty touches 4270+ levels.

Bulls bite RED, carnage across…..

The bloodbath across the globe with 2-4% down on indices will make our openings lower than the immediate support levels. The days like this, the support levels won’t take any real support, as the supply of stocks at any time cannot be predictable. The panic situation cannot be easily managed unless one tries to have a long-term view with deep pockets garner the opportunity.
Any way we have to live with the situation whether we like it or not. Two days back I suggested offloading all del. to buy at lower levels. The Nifty has support at 4496-4491 level and very good support at 4412-15 levels. In case Nifty can stay above 4512-13, we can breath easily as the damage can be managed immediately.
We have RIL and ITC results, any unexpected positives from RIL can save the day other wise total shave. The old levels for techs valid, the good supports for RIL-1875-71, ONGC- 891, SBI-1509-06, ICICI- 917-22, INFY-1935, Satyam 479 and 471, Wipro – 491-93, RCOM-540, STER- 631-29, RelCap-1206-09, TataSteel-673-71, Bhart-875-73. Incase more than 5 counters trade lower than these levels, just consider the market is in downturn. The carnage effect will take at least 5-7 trading sessions before a clear bull move to emerge, if at all the short-term prospects live intact.

Highest ever turnover -1.01lakh crores!

The turnover is increasing day by day and the figures become milestones as they are superseded in the days to come. The Wipro made its move in the series of rotation as usual and the whole market recovered in the last few minutes as the short covering happened in July but more shorts were built up in August.
The banks became weak, RIL strong above 1915 rose to 1945+, ONGC to 959 as they traded above their support levels. The Tata Steel could not trade above 719 became weak to touch 697 level. The Infy traded in the positive zone above 2020 touched 2045+, TCS rallied from the 1166 to 1200 level and Wipro bounced to 525 level after it crossed 510.
Bombey dyeing up by 5%, HDFC crossed 2000+ after good results. The pharma major Ranbaxy made this day as its day to settle at 375+level, as it got good support now at 355-352.

Welcome to August series and farewell to July!

The market has become stock specific, one day TCS up, other day Satyam up, another day Infy but rest techs were normal. As I wrote earlier on 21st. the rotation has been in place to keep the Nifty up and up. The beauty of the market is - rewarding those who dare to take del. on declines. The word of caution is never take del. in a FALLING MARKET.
The world markets are flat with negative bias but US + to – to flat, emerging markets mixed. The RIL is good above 1915 weak below 1904, ONGC good above 926, SBIs first bottom support at 1542, ICICI support at 950 good above 966, Bharti good above 920 (today Results). Tata steel positive above 719-21, weak below 706. Infy has immediate support at 1956, resistance at 1996, good above 2020. TCS good above 1166-69, Wipro good for del. above 510-12 stop loss 504-05.(like ITC, in the making but takes time).
NEWS: Air Deccan issue, Infy by out, RCOM- air tickets yatra.com, ONGC and HDFC post results effects. Sail with Mittals, IDFC with India Infrastructure Fund, L&T and Bombay Dyeing tie up. Canara bank broking business, Siemens shops in US.

Stock Market always BOSS!

On 18TH, I posted to keep an eye on ITC and good for del. above 158, made a stellar move on 60-point Nifty fall. So it all about understanding the market movement. The legends of the market told several times- "market is always right". I say, market is BOSS- “market is all about a given price- Buying Opportunity- Solid Selling”. The Stock Market all WAYs - BOSS, so make use of both the opportunities, each time and every time. GOOD LUCK.
The technicals reveal the work done and the future projection based on the history, but most of the times we don’t participate with a doubt or with a self defined reason. The repentance makes us depressed, instead participate by buying while the scrip is moving up and sell while the scrip drops to lower levels.
The market took support at the 4555 level as anticipated and the rise was from the support of RIL, ONGC and SBI. The strongest at this point in time was RIL and ONGC, of course ITC made this day as it’s day. Relcap took bottom support at 1198 rose to 1245 level, IDFC moved fast to new highs above 129 lower support at 126. The RCOM took southward move even its' counter part Bharti moved up.

Rest is red except China!

The markets are now in correcting mode as the valuations are compelling to investors to book profits. This opportunity is more than enough bears to put their pressure on bull to take a back seat for today and days to come. The Nifty face pressure when it trades below 4611-13 may find support at 4571-73 levels, next at 4551-50 levels. Those who have taken del. in Idea and Satyam, as posted touched 135 and 525 levels can be booked profits.
The RIL get selling pressure below 1915 and good above 1928-26, ONGC weak below 916 and good above 926, SBI good above 1598-96, ICICI good above 883. The Infy weak below 1963, RCOM weak below 571, Bharti good above 839. IDBI good above 112 and IDFC good above 126, Rel cap good above 1198-1203 stop-loss 1185-83. DLF weak below 657, stoploss at 671.

The bears are making in………roads?.

The volatility is not because of the expiry of the July but the preparation for a deep cut on the face of bulls by the bears. The bulls give their best effort to save the move intact. The bears were cornered in a classic trap from 4280 level on June expiry.
As posted earlier, the Nifty has good support at 4140 level, as it traded 40 trading sessions. As the markets matured and ripe for the downturn, the volatility can be observed as the low cut and high cut is a common phenomenon before a steep fall.
The short term is good for shorts, Nifty may face resistance at 4635-39 level and likely to touch 4273-75 level by mid August. Incase failed to hold then it will touch 4078-75 level which the market missed to touch before it could leap to this level. (Read earlier posts)
Camps kept me out to update.

The lower support is crucial!

The Nifty did not breach the lower support of 4551 as posted yesterday but the fall from higher level due to profit booking and the over nightfall of US can fuel doubts over the continuation of bull move. This can put some pressure on bulls to unwind their positions and the bears may take this opportunity to apply pressure to break the immediate supports of Nifty and the leaders. The Nifty has good support at 4489-87 level and this will stand valid so long RIL stays above 1841-43, Bharti above 898-901 and RCOM stays above 556-61 levels.The rotation of stocks is the day of the trading style. It is likely that ICICI may get selling pressure and in SBI, incase it fails to trade above 1581-83. The up move in steel stocks can take halt but Tata steel is good above 705 and Sail above 153. The techs may correct further, this time Infy cannot stay above 1935 if it trades below 1966, Satyam weak blow 463, TCS below 1151- otherwise they are in trading range. The ONGC and power equipment manufacturing can save the Nifty from steep fall. The stocks are positive, ONGC above 895, Bhel above 1621, Suzlon above 1450, ABB above 1085 and NTPC above 156-157.

Is it consolidation or distribution?

The markets corrected from the higher level have become an opportunity to prune the earlier positions but not to build further positions. The Nifty will consolidate but the stock specific distribution in imment at this point in time. The clear signal is 7% down in Siemens, yet to recover and ABB fall, as well those who shorted in RIL and Tata steel forced to buy at higher levels. The operators are making all possible ways to trap the retail investors as the market has become stronger to mend to one’s whims and fancies.

Those who are in long can continue to hold until Nifty stays above 4491-93 levels. The fresh buying opportunities will emerge in NTPC and REL. The telcos are now Towers of money spinning. Those who are long in Bharti can wait to sell above 1000,RCOM above 625 and Idea above 175. The results of Cipla are disappointing and no big news to trigger up move may consolidate at 180-170 level. The fertiliser stocks likely to advance further as the food- security has become the need of the hour. The Unitech & DLF can be maintained in once portfolio but not small construction companies as the space demand by the BPO & software companies for next two to three years is limited. The surplus space and over construction in reality will dampen the demand in the market and make them loan defaulters that could bring cynical effect in the market. So anticipate the spate of the reality market in the context of rupee appreciation and emerging threats from China, Malaysia and from other emerging countries.
Now India is poised to grow in nuclear power, KPO, CRAMS and biotechnology. The other space for growth is emerging in retail malls and entertainment market through cable and WIMAX with 3G spectrums.

The up-move unlimited!

The markets world over inching up day after day despite of some concerns and negative views and cautious suggestions from the brokerage houses.
The Nifty has crossed the 4480-4520 range as posted earlier, now the suggestion in stay invested with the remaining balance in the del. of Idea, Bharti, Zeel, Ster, IDBI and IDFC. In case of compulsive nature to take del. try in Ranbaxy, L&T and Dabur. The FMCG move could in the offing as the retaiers increasing their space rapidly. It is very likely that DLF and UNITECH will be included in the NIFTY by next quarter. So accumulate in small lots and gain from the move. The early initiatives from the KPO and CRAMS likely to benefit India and the nuclear deal can make a lot of change in the valuations of the equipment manufactures like BHEL, ABB, Punj Lloyd. The NTPC, REL and Tata power will benefit, as they are leaders in power generation. The above companies can be accumulated, and the fall becomes a big opportunity.

The Nifty has resistance at 4583-89 range, incase it trades below 4555-4551, bears will have the advantage. The RIL may get selling pressure if it fails to trade above 1901-03 in the first half an hour and the low is below 1885. The run-up in banks likely to continue incase SBI trades above 1589-91 and ICICI above 993. Those who are holding the Idea del from 118 can book profits at 135 as suggested. The Bharti del holders can wait until it stays above 873-71. Incase persons long in Nifty can prune their positions by 50%.

Except US, the RED is spreading?

The world markets favours red now and Asia is trading in Red. The Indian markets are in advance to take corrective steps. It is likely that the markets may open below 4467 support level and may continue to trade below. As we are in results season, stock specific action is not ruled out. As suggested no longs for a longer period in the name of LONG-TERM.
RIL is good above 1816 and may feel pressure below 1811 but good support at 1788-91 range. ONGC good above 903, use as a stop-loss for both sides. The SBI weak below 1591 and has support at 1563-61 level, RCOM may test 540-36 level, though there was some good news. Any day, Bharti is good for del. if it trades above 879, low above 873. SAIL has good support at 139-138 range. Rel. cap weak below 1183-85, become stoploss. UBS favourate, Tata Steel has support at 671-669 range. Keep an eye on ITC, Very good for long- term players who can apply KOI- Keep On Investing, in ITC to sell above 300 after 2 years. The pharma majors may move up once the Nifty stabilizes over 4381-83 level, and out perform in the next move. Those who are maintaining 50% del. in ZEEL can exit now and reenter at 301-306 range. Idea del. persons can wait and accumulate in case of a fall.

The correction is an opportunity?

The techs showed their strength but failed to enthuse the market except in TCS and Satyam but failed to hold on higher levels is a concern reflected in the fall from higher levels. The worst hit was the capital goods and the metal space.
As posted, the ONGC didn’t trade above 918 come down to 900 level but RIL traded above 1781 went to 1835+ level. Idea fared well in a negative market went to 129+ and IDFC showed its strength to stay above 126, above 129 it touched to 132+. The steels corrected from their higher levels as a structural adjustments in Tata Steel and Sail. There were no sign of concern for an immediate off load but wait and watch is the word of caution that came from the capital goods sector as it was the darling sector for bulls, offloaded first.

No shocks quite calm!

The world markets are faring well with positive bias and the trend likely to continue. In our markets it shows the movement paused and likely to drift in case techs failed to enthuse today. Focus on leading tech companies, as they are likely to be re-rated as TCS results positive, Infosys acquired BPO arm, Satyam got two big orders.
The Nifty is good above 4466-67, until it breaches that level maintain long. The Infosys is strong above 1935, stoploss 1920; TCS strong above 1129 stoploss at 1116-15; Satyam good above 483 stop-loss at 475. The RIL, RCOM, Tatasteel are on their previous levels. SBI good above 1603-01, Relcap good above 1176 weak below 1163. IDEA is good above 126 and IDFC above 129.
ONGC becomes weak if it fails to trade above 918 and RIL fail to trade above 1781. The ITC has some move and something cooking in this counter, likely to flare above 158.

Happy Rise in Banks

The sparkling up moves in all the PSU banks made screen in green colour. The morning session SBI was sub-dued as if it is likely to fall but once it crossed the 1566 and after 1573 zoomed to 1620 levels. The reverse is the case with Tata Steel showed strength in early trades came down to 691 levels. RCOM with news strength gained to all time high closing, more potential left. RIL stayed above the support level 1766 as posted. Nifty stayed above the immediate support level on 4493 through out the day is a positive sign.

The world records “HIGH”s!

The major indices in the world are recording all time highs. The Nifty engulfed in earnings season this weak but the business has to be continued. Today TCS results can change/confirm the view on techs future.

The Nifty support at the immediate level 4443-45, no shorts above 4491-86 level.The mood ticker is in favour of the bulls but the bears are spreading the negative sentiment as ‘valuations high’ at this point in time.

The RIL - good above 1766-65, weak below 1749., SBI- weak below 1536-39 good above 1563-66; RCOM good above 5549-51, weak below 533-31; Rel Cap- good above 1179 and weak below 1171. IDFC weak below 126.TCS is weak below 1121-23.
The del. suggested in Idea above 118 can wait to sell above 132-35 range and can add above 126 stop-loss @121. The metals and cements may correct from highs. In case of bear pressure prefer shorts in banks and cements.

The “Expansion-Extended”-global integration.

The indices will take southward journey as a correction (as posted on 8th June) only when the Sensex crosses the previous high. It usually happens when a stock crosses it’s previous high; it tends to touch a new high with 5-10% rise on previous high, then corrects and again crosses. So it also happens with the indices (on the long-term basis) extended the same rule, (Nifty has crossed the previous high 4360+), average 7% works out to be 3000+ points gain. In that case, Nifty journey may takes to a level of 4300*1.7 = 7100+. As Nifty reflects 50 companies, all companies won’t rise equally, on the first phase 3% rise works out to be 1290+ and Nifty could touch 5950-6020 ranges.
Even if we go by the P/E ratio rule, the current P/E works out to be 21.63 at 4509 and the historical experience used as a measure to extrapolate, the low P/E at 17-18 and high at 29-30 times. Even if there was no surprises in the growth in the earnings, the rule of “averages” helps to arrive P/E @ 17.5+29.5= 23.5, on a conservative basis Nifty could touch 4509*23.5/21.6 works out to be 4900+.
On the emotional positive trajectory, the earnings of the companies based on their growth plans and the Govt. spending is also very encouraging for the next five to seven years down the line. Just think of the visible earnings of the companies’ top line growth due to software & BPO’s opportunities. The potential investments in SEZs, malls and constructions by RIL, ONGC, DLF, Unitech, ADAG, Bharti, Munjals and other players. The expansion plans in power projects of NTPC, REL, Tata Power and transmission and the steel sector expansion by Tata Steel and Jindals.
The infrastructure expansion in roads, airports and in housing can invite more money in to the system. The food processing companies and outlets expansion spur the agriculture with a special focus on cash crops. The sugar companies expansion in ethanol projects. The oil exploration & natural gas and the end user companies expansion plans in refineries, power and fertilizers. The list can be extended to automobiles, cement pharma and other companies.
The new activities will emerge in mining, aviation, nuclear, biotech & life sciences and non-conventional energy sectors. To make all the plans a success and make money out of those works, just think of the multi- faceted roles to be played by the banks and the financial institutions, of course with insurance.
The whole effort of this “expansion”- to visualize the potential growth in India’s economy and the multiple effects. The long-term players benefit the most, as the fall becomes the best opportunity to accumulate and hold for better returns. The short-term traders survive by shorting to garner the scratch.