OUT PERFORMANCE

MANY REASONS TO OUT PERFORMANCE……LOOK AT THIS….

Equity of firms with low promoter stake rises

N Sundaresha Subramanian & Sameer Mulgaonkar / Mumbai August 15, 2011, 0:47 IST

Companies with low promoter holding, especially those where the promoters have between 20 and 25 per cent stake, have seen their share prices spurt despite a falling market.
A significant number of these companies have given positive returns between July 28, when the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) announced the new takeover trigger of 25 per cent, and August 12. Many others have performed better than the broader market, which has fallen around seven per cent during this period, largely due to global uncertainties. The BSE Sensex fell 7.5 per cent during this period and the broader market, represented by the BSE 500 index, shed 7.2 per cent.

Experts feel while some of this rally could be due to promoter action, others must be moving on expectations of such action. Business Standard had reported last week how a number of promoters holding over 20 per cent in their companies but short of the new trigger of 25 per cent announced by Sebi, are looking to increase their shareholding to the new trigger limit. This is a crucial safeguard against hostile takeovers and a key enabler for further consolidation.
 

SOARING EXPECTATIONS
	Promotor  stake in %#	% Chg*
Shreeyash Industries	24.44	36.49
Intens Air Systems	20.51	23.93
Arcee Industries	23.74	12.67
Trijal Industries	22.12	10.54
Himachal Fibres	24.14	9.57
Odyssey Tech	20.67	6.41
Sikozy Realtors	21.08	5.52
Vora Constructions	24.48	4.98
M&M	24.86	3.52
Rajasthan Tube Mfg	20.71	1.83
Sensex		-7.52
BSE 500		-7.25
# as on Jun 2011    *Price % change: 12 Aug over  28 Jul Compiled by BS Research Bureau

A study by the BS Research Bureau shows at least 17 of 88 such companies which were actively traded during this period gave positive returns since the board meet. Mahindra and Mahindra, where promoters held 24.86 per cent, gained 3.5 per cent. In the past week alone, between August 5 and 12, the stock gained 13 per cent. Sical Logistics has gained one per cent since the Sebi board meet. A number of smaller companies have gained even more. Shreeyash Industries, where promoters held 24.4 per cent, was the biggest gainer at 36.5 per cent (see table).
The BSRB study further showed that another 15 companies outperformed the broader market by falling less than the respective benchmark indices, though they have shown negative returns. HDFC Bank, where the promoters hold 23.28 per cent fell just under four per cent, against the Sensex loss of 7.5 per cent. Gujarat Natural Resources fell 2.82 per cent.
Promoters of these companies still have a small window before the notification is out to get past the 25 per cent line, if they have not got there already, takeover law experts say.
Takeover Code 1997, in force at present, allows promoters who have at least 15 per cent stake to increase their holdings by five per cent every financial year without making any open offer, under the creeping acquisition route. Promoters who hold 20 per cent or more can use this facility to get past the 25 per cent mark before the new rules come into force, say bankers.
Under the new norms, which will take effect once the gazette notification is issued, creeping acquisition will be available for promoters only if they hold 25 per cent or more, the new trigger limit. Creeping acquisition is an important weapon for promoters to consolidate holdings without the burden of open offers and to discourage hostile takeover attempts. Further, the new code also provides for a voluntary open offer by promoters to consolidate their holdings. Even this offer, which can be for a minimum of 10 per cent stake, can be made by promoters only if they have a minimum holding of 25 per cent, according to the takeover panel recommendations, making the number all the more important for promoters.

THANKS TO BS FOR THE NEWS….

DOW, NASDAQ, S&P...TWISTER.....RUINS

THE MARKETS ARE IN WHIRL WIND ....THE WEALTHIEST NATION 'S FOUL CRY AND WEEPING FOR SUSTAINABLE GROWTH LED FUTURE MADE THE WORLD TO LET THE TEARS.

THE SHALLOW MARKET DEPTH THIRD WORD COUNTIES ARE SUFFERING DUE TO AN UNPLANNED UNFOLDING EVENTS IN THE MARKETS.

WE HAVE TO ACCEPT THE FACT OF LIFE INBUILT IN THE SYSTEM AND WAIT FOR THE TIDE TO TURN UP.

8 AUG, 2011, 05.14AM IST, PARTHA SINHA,TNN 

Deven Sharma - The Jharkhand boy who downgraded US

MUMBAI: About four months after MS Dhoni's boys won the Cricket World Cup for India, another man from Jharkhand has now shook up the world. On August 5, Standard & Poor's, led by Jharkhand-born Deven Sharma, struck off the 'AAA' rating of the US, considered the Gold standard in the world of finance, for the first time since 1914. 

On that Friday afternoon, S&P officials told Barak Obama's treasury department that the ratings major's analysts have come to a decision that the US no longer deserves to be among the best rated countries in the world. After six hours and a flurry of emails, phone calls and conferences between top officials in the Obama administration and Sharma's team of number-crunchers, the world got to know of the unprecedented move - something that was in the air for a few months but which appeared more like a distant possibility: The US' country rating was downgraded one notch to 'AA-plus'. And suddenly the 57-year old Sharma was in the spotlight, hailed by a select few, but criticized by several in the financial world. 

Born in 1955, Sharma was educated in Jamshedpur and Ranchi, and then moved to the US for his masters degree at Wisconsin and his doctoral degree in management from Ohio in 1987. During his initial years, he was in the manufacturing sector, working with Dresser Industries and Anderson Strathclyde. In 1988, he joined Booz, Allen & Hamilton, a global management consulting firm, where he spent 14 years. In 2002, he joined The McGraw-Hill Cos, the parent of S&P. 

Sharma took over as the president of S&P in August 2007, just when the sub-prime crisis in the US housing sector was getting out of hand, and credit rating agencies were picked as one of the perpetrators of the meltdown for their flawed ratings models of housing loans. Over the last four years as the head of one of the foremost rating agencies in the world, Sharma has faced several US Congressional grillings, but has negotiated most of those with much elan, people who have followed him closely say. In a recent interview, Sharma admitted that over the last four years, comments made by US lawmakers have changed to appreciation from strong criticism. 

No wonder the veteran of several testimonies in the US congress has been able to stand up to the global criticism from all quarters for their critical decision. Since Friday evening, Sharma, along with David Beers, his top lieutenant on the ratings side, have stood firm alongside S&P's analysts and defended the controversial and unprecedented decision saying that such a step was necessary and it was done for the benefit of investors. 

People who followed Sharma's recent messages to the world said that there was enough evidence that a rating downgrade was more of a probability than not. Late last month, in a Congressional hearing during the height of uncertainty about raising US debt limit, Sharma was non-committal about what ratings decision his company would take. A Bloomberg report said that he told US lawmakers that S&P was waiting to see what the final proposal would be before deciding whether to keep US debt at the firm's highest ratings level. 

While the world criticized S&P for their historic decision, some even questioning the data the analysts used but back home there are some who think Sharma and his men have done a great job. The controversial head of a top brokerage house with strong presence in the US told TOI, that the ratings downgrade had to happen as it was due for years. 

DEVAN SHARMA: Analysing Global Risk 

EDUCATION 

Born in 1955, Deven Sharma did his schooling from Jamshedpur and graduation from BIT, Ranchi; masters degree from University of Wisconsin and doctoral degree in management from Ohio State University in 1987 

CAREER 

1988-present: After working with Dresser Industries and Anderson Strathclyde, he joined Booz, Allen & Hamilton, in 1988; moved to The McGraw-Hill Cos in 2002, the parent of S&P ; was executive VP at S&P from 2006-07 and became president in 2007; is also Crisil chairman

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THANKS TO ET

======================================================================

The disaster came, the disaster wiped out the investor wealth 

FIIs offloaded shares worth Rs 3,000 cr in 2011

Press Trust of India / New Delhi June 28, 2011, 13:13 IST

Foreign institutional investors have offloaded shares worth nearly Rs 3,000 crore in 23 Indian companies, such as mortgage lender HDFC and Bombay Dyeing, among others, so far in 2011.

According to an analysis, ten foreign fund houses, such as Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Securities and JP Morgan, sold shares of Indian companies worth Rs 2,939 crore through open market transactions on the Bombay Stock Exchange in 2011.

At the same time, eight overseas investors bought shares of 10 other firms, including Cairn India, for Rs 1,811 crore during the same period.

Analysts said this is just a normal stock market purchase and sale done by an institutional investor and is more of basket selling by some big client.

"It seems that one of the big clients has offloaded its holdings in the open market, while another one has bought it. It may also be that the client has changed its fund house," Religare Securities executive vice president and head (retail research) Rajesh Jain said.

Overseas clients invest in shares of Indian companies through participatory notes issued by fund houses.

Morgan Stanley Mauritius Company sold its holdings to the tune of Rs 1,368 crore in 12 firms, including Bajaj Finserv, Bombay Dyeing, VIP Industries, United Breweries Holdings, Garware Wall, Prime Focus and Subex, among others.

Similarly, Citigroup sold shares worth Rs 1,249 crore in five companies, namely HDFC, Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services, Zenith Computers, JBF Industries and Marg, through the bulk deal window.

Further, Deutsche Securities Mauritius sold 2.5 lakh shares of Eicher Motors for Rs 25.50 crore.

In addition, UBS Securities sold its stake in Consolidated Construction, JPMorgan Special Situations (Mauritius) offloaded its holding in Cable Corp and HSBC Global Investment Funds sold its shares in NCC.

What more, T Rowe Price International Funds, Master Trust BK of Japan, Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana and BankAmerica International Financial Corp offloaded stake in Allied Digital, Indoco Remedies, Marg and Zuari Industries, respectively.

The biggest share purchase deal was done in Cairn India's counter as Broad Peak Mauritius and Merrill Lynch Capital Markets Espana together bought shares valued at Rs 1,706 crore.

Besides, DSP BlackRock Mutual Fund, ITF Mauritius, Credit Suisse (Singapore), Goldman Sachs Investments Mauritius, Deutsche Securities Mauritius and Citigroup Global Market Mauritius took stakes in Indian firms during 2011.


THANKS TO BS


The FII influence is indispensable as the gyrations of Market movement are collateral to their investment.

The policy decisions unfolding……….

The Central Govt is doing its part on the policy decisions after the May elections. There is a period of more than 6 months where the activity was stalled for want to people mandate as acid test to the rule at the centre.

Now the Govt working economic reforms on phased manner. The petrol hike to curtain the burden is step forward in such initiatives, now the gates were open. A few days back, on Friday evening, announced the increase of diesel price, LPG and Kerosene prices by Rs. 3, 50, 2 respectively.

The RBI has taken a stringent call to curtain the spiraling inflation by rate hike with out effecting the money circulation. Now RBI has left with little choice but to accept the high growth high inflation concept, especially dedicated to emerging countries like India. The current news on stands is allowing FIIs to invest in MF with an upper limit of $10 billion. The green signal in proprietary trading for FDI, is another good sign we are talking about.

The culmination of the effects made buoyancy effect in the stock-markets as the prices are ticking green to touch new highs. The much wanted policy decisions were published to negate pessimism note floating in the markets. The clear sign of relief is good for bulls until and unless the global slide make a catastrophe. The Nifty is good as mentioned in my previous posting…. THE HOPE GENERATED>>>??????  The bulls took charge of the last two days of the week. The FO closing gave good support to push the Nifty to higher levels. The Nifty levels above 5450 level is neutral but the challenge lies a head above 5520 level. The previous support 5460 which has become a platform for bulls now became a line of battle……..

FII HOLDING and the FALL....

I am not active in updating&publishing the blog some time for various reasons...
All is not rosy with FII holding…. Pls. read in detail, Thanks to author and to BL

Take your cues carefully from FII trends

VIDYA BALA
Do you continue to hold yester-year education player Aptech and or wind equipment maker Suzlon Energy, which had a field day until 2007 but were battered in 2008? If you are fondly hoping they will go back to their 2007 levels, your hopes may well be dashed. Four years hence, these stocks are still trading at half their March 2007 prices, thanks to unceremonious dumping by FIIs. This is typically the kind of fall mid- and small-cap stocks are vulnerable to when FIIs lose interest in them. It is one key reason why retail investors have to be wary of blindly following FIIs in selecting stocks for their portfolio.
It has to be said, though, that stocks such as Shriram Transport Finance Company or City Union Bank, in which FIIs meaningfully hiked stakes (over 10 percentage points) in the 2007-11 period, have delivered phenomenal returns that less fancied stocks could not have matched. So, if you are a retail investor wishing to follow FII footsteps, what precautions should you take? Read on to know how to decipher the FII ownership trends.
FII stronghold
A look at the BSE-500 ownership pattern suggests that FIIs held as much as 15 per cent of the full-market capitalisation of the BSE-500 and a whopping 35 per cent of the free-float market cap as of March 2011, thus providing them considerable influence over stock markets. Domestic institutions (mutual funds and insurance companies), on the other hand, held a more modest 21 per cent of the free-float market cap. It is for this reason that FII trends cannot be ignored in the Indian context.
Sector trends
Let's first look at the long-term FII trends (in sectors within the BSE-500) to know sectors that have moved off the FII radar and those that are gaining ground. If we were to take the total allocation of the FIIs in BSE-500, and sift through the holding between the last four years from March 2007-2011, the most striking feature is the FIIs' heightened interest in non-banking finance companies and investment holding companies.
Their overall stakes in this sector were hiked from 5.5 per cent in March 2007 to 10.5 per cent in March 2011, making it the third most preferred sector of FIIs in the BSE-500 universe. The increase though was substantial only post March 2009. Aside of NBFCs, refineries and, more recently, steel and non-ferrous metals (following the commodity rally) as well as trading companies (such as 3M India, Adani Enterprises) are sectors in which FIIs have upped stakes within their overall portfolio allocation.
Among those that lost FII favour, the most conspicuous was telecom. From 9.5 per cent allocation in March 2007, this number dwindled to 3.2 per cent, thanks to both fundamental and governance issues in the sector. Brokerages and realty, too, dwindled to insignificant levels dragging the share prices of stocks in this segment to new lows. Interestingly, infrastructure developers continue to attract FII interest despite slack financial and stock performance. If these are the trends, what should a retail investor make of it?
Take the case of NBFCs. The sector has been re-rated rather swiftly, rather like the brokerage and realty stocks in 2007. And the fate of realty or brokerage stocks in the 2008 meltdown is well known. With demanding valuations prevailing in some of the NBFC stocks, investors would do well to be cautious in such sectors and book profits on rallies.
Similarly, sectors such as auto and cement and capital goods have been the more volatile FII fancies, with holdings being constantly churned. IT too, is one of the first sectors to be dumped in a downturn and also among the first in which FII picked stakes. In the FII's BSE 500 portfolio, the IT holding was anywhere between 8 to 15 per cent in the last four years; much of the churning pertaining to mid-cap IT. It is noteworthy that IT receives only 10.4 per cent sector weight in the BSE 500. Clearly, the FIIs tend to go overweight on the sector, thus having a higher influence on stock movements.
So are there any sectors where the FIIs have held reasonably steady? FMCG and pharma appear to be the most dependable on this count. With FII portfolio allocation varying within a safe 2-4 per cent in each of these sectors, they appear to be less under the influence of FII buying and selling. In both these sectors the FIIs have lower allocation compared with the BSE-500 weights.
The infrastructure sector, on the other hand, appears to be among the more promising space from the FIIs' perspective. The quiet accumulation of select stocks such as L&T and GMR Infrastructure and Engineers India at relatively low valuations appears to suggest that the sector may be turning ripe to deliver returns.
Mind the mid-caps
Sector trends apart, investors also need to be mindful of the market cap bias of the stocks they own. Even in FII overweight sectors/stocks, large-cap stocks are less affected by FII selling compared with mid-cap stocks. Take the case of large-caps Voltas or HDFC. FIIs reduced their stake by 10 percentage points in these stocks over the last four years. The stocks nevertheless went on to deliver over 20 per cent returns compounded annually.
The same though was not true of another capital goods company Jyoti Structures, in which FIIs reduced stakes by over 14 percentage points in the above period. The stock is still trading at half its March 2007 price despite sound financial performance. Stocks such as IVRCL or Gammon India, which, despite heavy selling, continue to have high FII stakes, have seen sharp volatility in their stock movements since the 2008 downturn and their stock price has declined over the years. Constant FII churning, also affected these stocks.
Apply this rule to stocks where FIIs are now upping their stakes. Large caps IDFC or Hindalco, for instance, may well bear the pain of any FII selling, given that FIIs have not jumped in to these stocks; the accumulation instead has been steady with the stock climb being gradual, backed by earnings growth. The same may not be entirely true of mid-caps such as Manappuram General Finance & Leasing or LIC Housing Finance that have caught the FII fancy in recent times, delivering astronomical returns of 135 per cent and 69 per cent compounded annually! Any steep hikes in FII ownership in mid-caps would, therefore, require caution, especially when the valuations appear stretched; while you may rest easy in the case of large-caps as long as they are fundamentally sound even if it means enduring a short correction.
Is there domestic support?
If you have still gone ahead and bought the mid-caps fancied by FIIs, be sure that there is some domestic institutional holding to support the stock as well. In other words, do the FIIs' domestic peers — mutual funds and domestic insurance companies (DIIs) — hold sufficient stakes in the stock and can they provide some buying support in the event of FII selling?
This was not the case with SKS Finance. With DIIs holding 5 per cent at the time of listing (and later reducing stakes further), this stock had a free fall ever since allegations of mismanagement broke.
Jain Irrigation Systems, Ansal Properties & Infrastructure, Anant Raj Industries or NDTV are some of the stocks where the domestic institutional holding is really low compared with the high FII ownership.

---

Want to pick up some of the stocks that FIIs fancy? Don't do it blindly for the risks may be high.

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(This article was published in the Business Line print edition dated June 5, 2011

Be carefull and carefully pick up the stocks from the lot.....once again thanks to BL.

THE CHANGING PROGRESS

THINK DIFFERENTLY

6 Jun, 2011, 11.00AM IST, Sanket Dhanorkar,ET Bureau

Buy stocks ignored by markets but have potential to gain

Would you have invested in Tata Motors in the early part of the last decade, when it was down in the dumps and shunned by everyone? Most likely you wouldn't have; in which case you would have missed out on a phenomenal rally of over 1,300% in its stock price. As equity investors, our tendency is to go with the prevailing market sentiment.

You may not be willing to accept it, but what others feel has a strong influence on your decision taking. If a particular stock or sector catches the fancy of

Dalal Street

, you may find yourself itching to get in on the action too. This 'herd mentality' is so ingrained in our psyche that, sometimes, it stops us from taking a rational view of the situation.

Ask anyone who bought into the technology euphoria at the turn of the millennium or those who chose to ignore the commodities boom that kick-started in 2002-3. It takes firm conviction and a lot of nerve to swim against the tide and pick (or avoid) stocks that are otherwise ignored (or coveted) by others. But this is the essence of contrarian investing. It is also the theme of an often sidelined category of mutual funds- contra funds. Let us examine whether it is beneficial to be a contrarian.

How does contrarian investing work?

Primarily, a contra fund or investor will invest in out-of-favour stocks that may hold promise not yet discovered by the overall market. Their task is to pick stocks that are wrongly shunned by the larger investor community. These may be companies that have sound operations and potential for a turnaround. Vetri Subramaniam, CIO, Religare Mutual Fund , explains: "It involves taking a positive view on a company much ahead of a change in market sentiment and consensus about it." As fund manager for Religare Contra Fund, his primary focus is to identify companies that are in a turnaround situation and those valued cheaply relative to their fundamental value.

Contrarians thus place bets according to what is rational rather than what is in vogue. In the current scenario, for instance, it would involve seeing through the widespread pessimism and picking out stocks whose low valuations do not reflect the true business potential and strength.

Contrarian investing need not be limited to a particular market situation; it can be profitably implemented in any circumstance. In most situations, there will be stocks that are trading at unfair valuations. The market would have either overbought some companies or neglected some it believes are not worth the risk. The contrarian investor has to judge where the broader market is missing the true story.

However, contra investing is not easy. An investor should have the ability to tune out the noise and murmurs coming from the marketplace. You should be able to stand firm in your conviction no matter what others are saying. You will also need to think out of the box to identify the opportunities that others may have missed.

What a contrarian can gain

For a contrarian investor, the payoff can be potentially rewarding. If your bet turns out right, the returns can be very high. This is because you are buying low and could, subsequently, sell high. The contrarian invests in a stock when it has a valuation gap. Gradually, as the market gets wind of the true potential of the company and makes a beeline for it, the stock price will rise.

For instance, Bharti Airtel was a beaten down stock till a year ago (trading at around Rs 250), as the stock market had reacted adversely to the tariff war among mobile operators. Since then the company has exhibited a penchant for growth by expanding its global footprint, launching next generation services and is better placed compared with its peers, riding on its management pedigree. The price has now surged by about 50%, with potential for further upside.

Just like most investors move in herds, fund managers tend to mimic each others' portfolios, thus offering little differentiation. Investors may find a way out of this herd mentality with the help of contra funds. This could be the ideal solution for someone willing to take on greater risk.

The problems of being a contrarian

Contrarian investing can be highly risky. Tarun Sisodia, director, institutional equities, Anand Rathi Securities, cautions: "Contrarian investing is a different philosophy. You should ensure that it fits your risk profile. Also, it should not form a major part of the portfolio." By courting stocks that are ignored by others, you may run the risk of bearing huge losses as the market may have valid reasons for staying away from them.

If your call doesn't work out, your money could go down the drain. For instance, airline stocks have been out of the market's radar for a while now and justifiably so. With rising air turbine fuel prices and heightened competition, most players have been piling on losses with no turnaround in sight. In this scenario, it wouldn't make sense to place faith in airline stocks.

Returns can be also very slow to materialise in this strategy. It is not likely to yield quick returns since a turnaround, if any, can take a lot of time. Patience is a virtue required of any investor, but is especially true for the contrarian.

Vetri agrees, "It requires a patient approach because very often one has to tolerate some degree of underperformance from the stock as the market may be slow to reward the change in the fundamentals of the company or the sector." You may have to stay invested in the fund or stock for a reasonably long period (at least 2-3 years). So if you are looking at building wealth fast, this is not the right option for you.

Performance of contra funds

People who invest in contra funds believe that as they are paying fund managers to take risks and bet against the market, this is exactly what they are getting. Unfortunately, this may not be the case. Some of the contra funds available today are contrarian only in name. They are not pure contra funds because they hold stocks that can be found in any ordinary equity fund's portfolio, making them no different from the rest.

If you are considering investing in a contra fund rather than doing it on your own, check how these funds have fared. SBI Magnum Contra, the first of its kind to be launched in the country, has delivered stellar returns (21.76% compounded annual growth rate) since its inception in 1997. However, it has witnessed a slide in performance of late.

Tata Contra has performed exceptionally over the past one year (16.4%), while Religare Contra has emerged the top performer over the 3-year period (13.5% CAGR). On the whole, however, contra funds haven't fared well as compared to multi-cap equity funds. In the past year, for instance, contra funds have averaged 5% returns while the broader category has yielded 8%. Over three years, where multi-cap schemes have delivered a CAGR of 7.38%, contra funds have only averaged 6.44%.

Consider these bets

If you are willing to take a higher risk and want to take some contra bets, here are some of them. Though the market, as a whole, is experiencing weakness currently, there are specific themes that are less favoured by investors. Ambareesh Baliga, COO, Way2Wealth Securities, believes markets always witness a rotation in sector performance every 2-3 years, where previous leaders might fall from their perch and laggards might march ahead. In this context, he feels that cement, oil & gas and hotels could provide good opportunities. Ambuja Cement, Petronet LNG, Reliance Industries and Indian Hotels are among his top picks from these sectors. 

Another sector that has witnessed a fall in share prices is sugar. The surplus in domestic sugarcane production has limited the pricing power of sugar manufacturers. However, this domestic sugar balance is tighter than what the market believes, which could provide a support for sugar prices, says Morgan Stanley Research, whose preferred stock pick in this industry is Shree Renuka Sugars.

According to Morgan Stanley Research, consumer discretionary stocks, such as automobile and retail also seem to be bottoming out as the interest rate cycle reaches its peak. Its India Strategy report mentions: "Consumer discretionary stocks tend to trough with peaking rates. The RBI has taken us closer to the end of the rate cycle".

Sisodia believes that cement demand could pick up as construction activity improves in the future. Grasim Industries and ACC are his top picks in this sector. He is also positive on the prospects of the capital goods segment where he expects a recovery aided by a jump in the industrial capex.

Sisodia also believes that real estate stocks, which have been hammered by the markets largely due to corporate governance issues, could provide some specific opportunities where governance is not a problem. Godrej Properties is his pick in this category.

 THANKS TO ET..GOOD CONTRIBUTION....

STOCK MARKET -CHILDSPLAY

THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT CHILD'S PLAY

BUT ALL PLACE THEIR BETS

RIGHT FROM THE LEGEND- LIVERMORE

TO ALL PERSONS WHO SACRIFICED THEIR LIFE.

BECAUSE IT ALLOWS ALL BUT THE FIGHT IS

WITH BIG STILL THE WEAK CLAIM.....

A NEVER ENDING STORY.........

THE CULPRIT IS " ................."

YOU

IMAGINE

YOU

IMAGINE TILL YOU FIND THE ANSWER.......

I AM LEFT WITH HEAVY HEART BUT THE FACT HAS NO LIFE-YOU ARE SOME ONE SPECIAL IN MY LIFE EVEN THEN YOU ARE NO MORE.

YOU ARE MY TEACHER, BUT THE LESSONS TAUGHT WERE FORGOTTEN- the best example is your last quote..
June-2011

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

An investor's worst enemy is not the stock market, but his own emotions .

A PERSON WITH AFFECTION.
A MAN WITH LOVE
A HUMAN BEING WITH HUMANITY....

I STILL REMEMBER YOU AND OF-COURSE THE GREATEST MISTAKE COMMITTED FOR EVER.
A lot I can remember you are not there to share.

HOPE GENERATED>>>??????

The bulls took charge of the last two days of the week. The FO closing gave good support to push the Nifty to higher levels. The Nifty levels above 5450 level is neutral but the challenge lies a head above 5520 level. The previous support 5460 which has become a platform for bulls now became a line of battle.

The strong move of Nifty heavy weights like Reliance from 906 to 953 level and ONGC fro 261 to 285 level and the metals have propping support. The surprising but heaving beating took place in one time favourate counter like TataMotors is a sign of tiredness of hope and the weakness of strength in Nifty.

The Rpower shown a big jump in its operations and bottom line is a cut attached from Relinfra. The ADAG companies are extremely nervous withier top boss position and the financial well being. It was not written any where but the 2G scam is hunching on the fall of empire in the whirl wind of turmoil. The food inflation is increasing and the growth targets are being contracted going forward. The highest growth that can be expected around 8.5% in the forthcoming years may be most challenging to the incumbent Govt to face the general election. The opposition is fall short of funds and popularism may form a united combat.

The economy as such is doing well and the Nifty on the long term trend is good. The Most difficult situation for bulls to keep nifty above 5800 level, so is the difficult task to bears to run the Nifty below 5280 level for some time. The task at this juncture looks easy for bears to crack the barrier but that is as well a mounting task. The monsoon touched the NW coast early and the onset is on time. Now the biggest guess is the spread across the country and the flood situation in some parts.

So the Nifty for now is well placed above 5360 as a bottom and the building of bottom on pessimism is taking place. The run to 5685 may not be so easy but the path going forward looks to that direction. The individual stock performances on their capacity of the results announced and the outlook to do well in future may get support at these levels or get hammered to adjust shape by the Push and Pull of Bulls and Bears.

The Reliance is struggling hard to find gas in KG basin so is the investor support. The Tatasteel did well at home but the foreign woes are deep to describe. The ONGC may see some support on disinvestment mat touch 296-298 level but get selling supply above 304 level. The DLF is making news with its reality asset bank but the stock may find difficult to stay above 250 level.

The tussle is for a…….?????

The last weak Nifty lost 60 points but ONGC SBI and TataMotors lost their ground considerably. The situation has played stock specific news and influence the Nifty accordingly. The near term positive news for bulls is declining inflation and good monsoon forecast. The headwinds for bulls are domestic issues and the global growth issues.

The policy developments are now favouring the bears. The Govt is insisting ONGC to bear extra burden being an upstream company along with Gail. The RBI is insisting the PSU banks to meet the pension obligations along with BASEL norms. The 2G scam is unfolding all the top brass of political and corporate icons throttled with the CBI filings and it is on for next two to three months. The best opportunity available to bears to trap the bulls that are left opened and still challenging the odd developments.

The short positions built over in the Bank Nifty right from 11800 to 10500 level and Nifty from 5950 to 5400 level is enough to take the Nifty to sub 4900 level. The last hope built around at the 5400 level for bulls can save them from the debacle and play a safe exit if they could push Nifty above 5820 level. AS a whole the top 10 companies except ICICI and TCS, produced so far are tepid results. The global exports are increasing but the profitability of the companies is not encouraging. The tussle is interesting and the fight can create a sell off by FIIs if the crisis in the global economy worsens as the level of uncertainty of US recovery is increasing and the Syrian crisis, sovereign debt crisis of Greece is hurting.

The fundraising plans of Reliance for $1.5 billion and ICICI for $1.1 billion and the ties for business and trade expansion with South Africa is a good sign for our markets. The steel industry is suffering with coal shortage and the same problem transferred to power sector. The infra sector growth is getting squeezed due to limited disbursements and the push has taken aback seat.

The relentless selling happened in the top market cap companies be it ONGC, SBI, RIL and Tatamotors. These companies lost their support levels. The HUL, Ranbaxy and L&T are now in bull grip but they too likely to loose the support once Nifty trades below 5420 level. The bulls made good effort to come back when the assemble elections announced and on the positive uptrend seen in global indices.

The UBS positive rating to RIL and a target price of 1170 stopped the selling but still the shorts were not covered. The RIL likely to cut the yearly low but the stock above 945 could delay the eventuality. The L&T results gave hope to infra companies but it is stock specific. The SBI placed the negative view on banks with its NPA provisioning rather than the pension provision. The stock is extremely finding difficult to rise above 2350-80 level, very likely to touch 1850 level in due course.

The FMCG bag of good results with pharma can no longer save the fall of Nifty but can provide some avenue for parking the investment. The mid cap are attractive from these levels as the fall provide an opportunity to invest but the time frame can be any body’s guess.

Inevitable but......

Leaving Infosys like daughter''s marriage: Narayana MurthyOn Wednesday 18 May 2011, 12:01 PM

New Delhi, May 18 (PTI) Leaving Infosys to N R Narayana Murthy was like parents sending away their daughter after her marriage, the founder and outgoing chairman has said in his last letter to the company''s shareholders.
"The best analogy that I can think of for this separation between Infosys and me is that of one''s daughter getting married and leaving her parents'' home," Murthy said in an emotional letter to Infosys'' shareholders.
Having nurtured the country''s leading IT firm for the last 30 years, Murthy would be succeeded by eminent banker K V Kamath as Infosys'' Chairman with effect from August 21 and would thereafter become ''Chairman Emeritus''.
Murthy, in his letter published in the company''s annual report for 2010-11, went on to say that he had to go through tough times explaining to his son and daughter about whom he loved more -- Infosys or the family.
Murthy said that his children do not believe him, even today, that he loved them more than anything else.
"When I was spending 16-hour days in the office and was away from home for as many as 330 days in a year, it was hard for my children to believe in my commitment to the family," he said.
Terming the Infosys journey as an integral part of his life, Murthy said that most of his colleagues tell him that "Infosys is an inseparable part of me and I am an inseparable part of Infosys." "I have been the Number One actor in every major decision taken in the company. I have rejoiced in every significant milestone of the company. I have commiserated in every false step that this company has taken," he asserted.
Giving the analogy of a daughter''s marriage, Murthy said: "Yes, the parents will be there when she needs them and they will be happy that she is starting a new life in an exciting new environment." He went on to explain in his letter the entire journey of the company to become one of the leading technology majors of the country.
Wishing the current management of the company luck for the future, Murthy said that he would be always there, whenever needed by Infosys.

Infy gave away Rs 50,000 crore of stock options to employees

On Wednesday 18 May 2011, 2:36 PM

Bangalore, May 18 (PTI) Infosys Chief Mentor N R Narayana Murthy has said the company has given away Rs 50,000 crore (at current stock prices) of stock options to its employees since inception.
Writing in an article titled "Goodbye, folks. March on with values...", in the NASDAQ-listed firm''s 2010-11 annual report, Murthy said, "I do not know of any Indian company that has given away as much as Rs 50,000 crore (at current stock prices) of stock options to employees".
"Today, every Indian employee at every level who joined us on or before March 2010 is a stockholder of Infosys", he said.
Murthy is stepping down as non-executive Chairman and Chief Mentor on August 20 this year when he turns 65. He has been named Chairman-emeritus for life by the board of the company, which is completing 30 years in 2011.
Murthy said Infosys had demonstrated that businesses can be run legally and ethically; that it was possible for an Indian company to benchmark with the global best; and that any set of youngsters with values, hard work, team work and a little bit of smartness can indeed be successful entrepreneurs.
"This way, we have enthused millions of young men and women in India. This, in my opinion, is Infosys'' greatest contribution", he said.
"The crucial things we have to do in the future are: recognise our weaknesses, be open-minded about learning from people better than us; learn from our mistakes and not repeat them; be humble, honest and courteous; benchmark with the best in every dimension; use innovation to perform at global levels; and create a worthwhile vision and improve every day", Murthy said.
He added: "This is how our mantra of focusing on speed, imagination and excellence in execution will take this company very far

Thanks to PTI and to Yahoo…..

The Policy push???....

The election results are better than expected to Congress than to any body else. Now the challenge how to take the next level of growth wave with out falling the inflation trap based growth. Many might have predicted but I published the Cabinet reshuffle in my previous posts.

The biggest advantage to govt is that they can rely on reforms but not on opportunity for grafting corruption line. The PM stand on the corruption shall become visible rather than keeping himself above. The support and pressure from Mamataji may become crucial and the push and pull be violent with the recent success. The plans to rise diesel price may get stiff resistance from allies may save the market also. The corporate scions are welcoming the change but the change shall take place at the centre on crucial issues like FDI and PF funds to markets.

The major developments are election results and the Wipro buying stake in Brazil company, UID’s 40000 cr plan to outsource services, Arvind joing hand with Tatas for residential and commercial buildings at Ahemedabad. The Suzlon positive results may keep the stock in positive territory.

The rise in dollar index may trigger for the sell of in emerging markets especially country like India which is scarifying growth for controlling inflation. Now the Growth may become a potential element rather than an on going process. The momentum may get disturbed may create crippling effect after wards. The threatening ones are like PMEAC head Rangarajan suggesting for rising further rates and freeing diesel. The US late recovery and need for raising further debt for more spending by Obama may not be a good sign to markets as the fiscal debt of US for now is OK but further rise may have cascading effects.

The Nifty is good above 5550 and the lower level 5460 shall not be pierced in this week as the jubilance of Bulls shall take the index to next level. The biggest hurdle for this movement is RIL, HDFC and Infosys. The positive stocks like HUL, ITC, ONGC and the Pharma lot may turn a drag if the Nifty fails to trade above 5640 level.

The Midcaps are out performing and will continue their journey despite of lack of momentum in Nifty. The metal pack and the IT pack shall turn their Southward journey to upward other wise the weakens will worsen and the Nifty may crumble. To avoid this situation TCS shall trade above 1153, Infosys above 2950 and RIL above 965 level. The better upward momentum HUL shall not trade below 296 level.

THE WEAK BOTTOMS MADE.......!!!!!!!!

It is difficult to predict the market at this juncture because of the relentless selling by the Bear for a serious reason that the RBI, as a matter of fact the Govt. in power wanted to be in power again by controlling the inflation. The spiraling inflation is a night mare to many, especially for the central bank chief.
The big news now is the fall of crude to touch the 100 dollar mark from its peak.The Govt is in a fix to increase the selling price of bear the loss as it is?.The mouth pies are accepting the rise but it will impact the economy badly at this critical juncture. The cost of funds putting lot of pressure on the expansion plans and the country may miss the opportunity developing across the globe to export. the exports are picking up in strides with 35% growth may get dampened by the shelfing of the growth plan to drawing room.The commodity fall is good to certain extent, it will reduce the input cost but beyond a point it impacts the inventory cost and company's final product selling price. It is very likely that the consumer may post pone the buying may change the whole scenario.
The election results will decide the trend and couple of ministers portfolio changes are expected at the center. The Congress party is preparing for a comeback into power, is a challenge for them to please the common man and the corporates.
The pressure of selling in Nifty has been well absorbed by the FII in the bottom layer. The FII buying at the bottom supports is a good sign but not sufficient to lift the markets from the sagging bottoms. The Nifty has a series of resistances right from 5600,5640,5720 and at 5785.The bottom support for now is ok with 5400 level but the selling in banks and RIL can become disastrous as the bull unwinding will start below these level. The fundamental challenge is now with the RIL and HDFC. The under performance of these counters for any longer can change the sentiment from bad to worse.
The ITC the one time Bull grip stock finding no buyers at 180 level may lead it to 166-69 level. The RBI rate hike can be counterbalanced with positive policy announcements. Now the light at the other end of the tunnel is with new banking licenses and the permissions to insurance company's listing and hiking FDI limit.
the long term bull market story will be in books unless Nifty trades above 5820-40 level in next couple of months.

MANAGEMENT PSYCHOLOGY OF SUCCESS

THE "SUCCESS" IS A DRIVE FOR MANY "SUCCESSFUL PEOPLE".


MANAGEMENT PSYCHOLOGY OF SUCCESS- WORLD OVER COVERAGE OF SUCCESSFUL PEOPLE DECISION MAKING PROCESS AND THE PLAN OF ACTIONS TO ACHIEVE SUCCESS.


A BOOK NEEDS TO BE PUBLISHED TO ACCOMPLISH MY GOAL TO PUBLISH BOOKS FOR THE NEXT GENERATION. THE AIM IS TO HELP PEOPLE TO ACHIEVE SUCCESS IN THEIR LIVES.


BNR

HUMAN CAPITAL - COOL MONEY

Indian firms make profit of Rs 6 lakh per employee

PTI, On Tuesday 19 April 2011, 3:34 PM

New Delhi: Indian companies pay a salary of Rs 4.8 lakh to each of their employee on an average, but earn a profit of Rs 6 lakh per employee in return, says a new survey.
According to a study by Pricewaterhouse Coopers (PwC) -- Measuring Human Capital - Driving Business Results -- organisations in India pay an average remuneration of Rs 4.8 lakh and earn Rs 6 lakh of profit per employee, which makes the human capital return ratio on investment to 1.79 for organisations in the country.
Besides, companies make an investment of Rs 7,000 on learning and development (L&D) per employee.
It further said that Indian companies make a pure profit of Rs 15 from every Rs 100-worth revenue generated by their each employee.
"With India being the fastest growing economy, organisations that would maximise their human capital contribution to business performance, would be the ones to best leverage the positive economic environment," PwC India Leader People and Change practice Sankar Ramamurthy said.
Among sectors, engineering and manufacturing generate the most revenue and profits per employee followed by fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and pharmaceutical space.
Moreover, organisations with higher revenue base incur 1.3 times higher cost per employee but also earn 1.4 times higher profit per employee organisations compared with lower revenue base companies.
The report, which is based on a survey of 37 firms across different sectors noted that Indian organisations spend about Rs 25,500 per hire on an average.
However, FMCG and other unclassified sectors spend more than double the amount towards their recruitment. This could be because of the high cost of their recruitment teams.
The report further said that information technology and information technology enabled services (IT/ITeS) sector recruits the highest number of graduates, but when it comes to retaining entry level talent, engineering and manufacturing sector leads the industry.
IT/ITeS, which has the lowest spend on L&D per employee, witness the highest termination and resignation rate as well.

Thanks to Yahoo

Bulls or Bears, who favoured???!!!!!

The markets closed on a positive note favouring the Bulls but the Bear are confident to stop these people not to cross 5930. Does this happen??, the biggest challenge opened like the IPL season.

The Indian corporate giant Reliance (consolidated yearly sales over 2.65 lakh crores and 20,200 crore net) has huge reserves like its gas reserves, pile of cash ( more than 40,000 crs) at its disposal will become a good investment opportunity in the upcoming LTE based broadband wireless national coverage can change the Telecom industry with more M&As.  The groups foray is proved right and now their immediate focus is Telecom. The BWA auction gave a paralleled advantage for is expansion. The results of Reliance 4^th quarter is more than 75500 cr+ with 5376 cr at net, are good bur not at the GRM front. The higher crude prices helped to increase the sales but not fully reflected in the net profit. The stock is fully discounted unless there are major discoveries on gas front or on market make up front, fore seeing a great undoubted revenue flow, the stock’s Price to Earnings can cap this rise to 1070-1120 higher side under the current Nifty level. The strategic alliances made are to be converted in to operational cash flow streams.

The TCS, growth on YOY (37,325 cr) or qoq both are impressive, made its mark in improving net profit margin and the operational income growth is also decent. The global IT recovery is definitely a boost to its revenue generation. The stock hit the yearly high at 1245 but has the potential to cross with 15% on the top of it because of positive out look as they suggested growth in similar terms. So the stock is definitely a market performer bias to outperform.

The banking major, Axis bank (15,300 cr yearly income) also gave good results for this 4^th quarter with 4300 cr+ income and net profit at 1020 cr+, with improved efficiency especially in corporate banking. The EPS stood above 80 and the stock has fully priced, but can touch 1680-1720+ range when Nifty crosses 6300 level.

The Nifty is very positively closed above 5800 level baring 3 times below this level, but the weakness can be seen only below 5720 level. The markets may disapprove he RIL performance can place Nifty below 5750 level can be expected only to the close of expiry. The markets may see selling pressure due to US worries, rising crude and the negative news (lack of positive news, due to elections and tension on the out come). Incase RIL trades below 1019 level, is a bad sign not only to stock but to the market as well. The efforts of Bulls to be rebuild on some good news.