PHENOMENAL RISE&HIGHs but A Denial
for NOW….
The Indian markets have performed
stupendously, like a race against all ODDs and against all emerging markets. We
are the best performing Indices YTD or for the quarter. The Rise is so phenomenal
that no-body expected but few could CASH the opportunity. Now many new entrants
are making inquiries and many more are looking as a decent opportunity to make HUGE money to meet their DREAMS.
The fact is that, since
January-14, Nifty rose by 20%, Mid-Caps by 30% and Small caps by 55%, some Individual
stocks rose by 400-700% from their LOWs. The hype generated now is due to
change in the Government, a market friendly team at the top. But the fact is
that No-body could SELL the National property via LIBERALIZATION for no reason,
nor for a simple cause. The National growth based on immediate requirements and
will be judged by prioritising/striking a right balance between “NECESSITY
& COMMERCIALIZATION”. The Future is GOOD as huge investments will take place
and the results will come in due course of time.
As far as the Stock Markets rise
is concerned, a dead cheap stocks are at a historic low was one of the major reasons
for FIIs relentless investments. The Global markets are also encouraging and
FREE Supply/HIGH Liquidity is driving the markets for NOW. Very few are working
on the REAL worth for the paper but relying on the PROJECTIONS. The Nifty is
POISED for touching 9000+ as experts are working on the next 3-year EARNINGS
and P/E that could safely take us above the above said number. I am not
pessimistic but play a realistic role for valuing the Available Opportunity. The
main reason for Nifty may seek SOUTHWARD JOURNEY because of looming DROUGHT,
Poor Investments made by the CORPORATES in the Preceding/Previous 2-3 years, so
NO earnings Surprise by the top companies.
So, the scenario is GLOOM in the Short-term, however the POLICY push can give some bounce but for the next ONE year
will be very challenging. The Nifty stocks are moving up but the UN-Winding is
a concern. The rise from here may not be that much sharp or serious, from here
2-Ups and 4-5 Downs. Because the FUTURE is promising, on any DEEP cut/ steep fall
BULLs take charge to make a comeback to take away the Retail Investors most of
the STOP-LOSSES.
THE BLOOM and GLOOM story…..THE MOMENTUM IS HIGH….
THE NIFTY MAY TOUCH 8785-8850 RANGE; BUT VERY LIKELY, IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY TOUCH 7000, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 6600-6400 RANGE
THE BANK-NIFTY MAY TOUCH 20100-22000 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY TOUCH 12500-800, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF
IT TOUCHES 10100-10300 RANGE
THE RELIANCE MAY TOUCH 1450-1550 RANGE;IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY TOUCH 801-811, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 759-736 RANGE
THE ONGC MAY TOUCH 620-650 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY TOUCH 311-321,
NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 270 RANGE
THE SBI MAY TOUCH 3850-3950 RANGE, IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY TOUCH 1920-1950,
NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 1450-1430 RANGE
THE ICICI MAY TOUCH 2130-2080 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY TOUCH 1180-1220, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 970-950 RANGE
THE RELCAPITAL MAY TOUCH 950-1050 RANGE;IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY TOUCH 440-415, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 330 RANGE
THE RELINFRA MAY TOUCH 1080-1150 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY TOUCH 520-540, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 440 RANGE
WE CAN EXTEND AND READ MORE
NUMBERS… BUT THE DENIAL IS RIDING HIGH EVEN IN MY MIND…
PLS DON’T BUY NOW UNTIL NIFTY
TOUCHES 7250-80 RANGE, BUT THE ACTUAL BUYING IN QUALITY STOCKS SHALL EMERGE
FROM 7000 ONLY. THOSE WHO ARE COMPULSIVE, SHALL TAKE A STOPLOSS ROUTE RATHER
THAN HOLDING FOR LONGER…THW WAIT MAY BE 3 YEARS…!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
