Is the worst OVER?

The investors in India are living with most terrible days in the past 25 days and likely to live in the dreadful future until Sep-07 results. The nightmares are very likely to continue unless the Nifty trades above 4280-85 levels and the low shall not touch 4145 level in case of such positive move. The Nifty touching new high at this point in time looks very bleak but sure it crosses in Jan-March, 2008.
The sectors are becoming weak day by day and day after day due to sub-prime and local political uncertainties. The left wants the people should forget the unpleasant, untimely uproar they have created. Most of the scrips are out of bull grip and now the damage erased the chances to cross the new high. It needs to re-look at the current valuations in the light of future growth prospects and the policy liberalizations. In case the 123-Nuclear fails to gets clearance from political hurdles, it is very unlikely that the further FII in-flow will be at lower pace and our markets dry up in 6-9 months period that reflects with lack-luster stock performance.
The above condition is bearing 15-20% to happen; the opportunity to invest in India for the overseas firms is the heaven that they can least afford to loose.
The strengths of India are many to elaborate; the ever increasing educated youth and the wide geographical spread with large coastline, forests and mineral rich hills coverage are the unexplored jewels of India that can absorb several FIIs, huge amount of Investments with assured return on capital. So those who have the perspective investment horizon of 3 years can reap lots of appreciation in their investments. But the traders who are long may need to work out their cost in this turmoil season.
No net connection for last 3 days. Stock specific levels tomorrow.

Poly-tricks Play now?

As posted Nifty failed to open above 4235, in fact high could not cross 4239 is a weak signal and drifted as the time reaches to closing.
The stocks are not chased but are available at throwaway prices. When the street dogs bark on stocks up move the retail investor wakes up and wait until the wealth ruins to dust in a fall market. The important noticeable happening in the stock market is “ the retail investor is the last person to enter in a bull move and the final lot to exit in a bear move”. The markets are finding the bottoms for support. So wait till the formation takes place or buy in 20%, 30% and 40% for every 100 points fall for Nifty. The 10% will be the reserve for buying in a bull move after the second level of purchased price crossed.
For today, the Nifty shall not trade below 4021-18 levels to take a bear trap up move. The Bhel has support at 1541 and Bharti at 783-86 level, L&T at 2151-53 level. The RIL bottom has support at 1721-23, ONGC good for long above 809, ICICI has support at 811-09 and SBI has support at 1414-1416 and shall not breach 1380 level for a market come back immediately. Every-body might have forgot Idea, has support at 103-05 and V.G. support at 96-98 range, don’t forget to take delivery.

The bottoms need support?

As posted, the Nifty neither could cross 4265 nor could trade above 4235. This is not a bad sign but need some strength to go up in future. The RIL could stay above 1781, Bharti above 821 but the low of ONGC and RCOM need to be improved.
The Govt. is in dilemma but posing brave face to the press. The Left parties are serious because they have to do their opposing and supporting job.
The US markets are consolidating; Asian markets are trading in Green. We are likely to open high and may continue the journey.
The stocks need to advance further so that the bottom support will be strong to face greater shocks. The Nifty has to cross 4375 level as early as possible.
Today Nifty has to open above 4235 level and high shall cross 4279 to believe the up. The RIL has to cross 1840 and trade above 1826.
The supports to RCOM at 493, Tata Steel at 563, RIL at 1791, ONGC at 809, Bhart at 820 and for BHEL 1541-45 levels. The software stocks may cover their losses today and Satyam may cross 446-48 level and Wipro may cross 484 level.
On 21st July posted about the Fertiliser stocks likely to move further and even now they are cheap if one can wait for 6 months.

Now long but how LONG?.

For today the long is good for the traders but the question is how long longs are valid in this market and that to at this critical time of political turmoil. No doubt INDIA opens for investment destination for the world but the hiccups has to be accepted.
The Nifty is likely to face resistance at 4332-35 level and at 4390-4385 levels as the things stands for now.
The left has gone far more distance than they can come easily to save their face. Now Cong. has to accept the responsibility to save them. Both parties know that they are sailing in the same boat but seats are placed at far end. So any damage from this situation can sink them, but trying to draw attention but yield no concrete results.
The good picks for next 6 months can come only when Nifty trades above 4265 and low above 4239, until then buy and sell. The scrips also has to form good bottom- RIL trades above good supports level 1685, better if it could trade above 1773-71 level; Bharti has to trade above 821, low above 809; ONGC above 839 low above 821; RCOM has to trade above 521 and low above 506. The scrips were un-ethically battered during the previous 10 trading sessions. So it takes even 6-8 trading sessions before they come into a systematic movement.

Now what to buy?

Any use to buy at these levels is the question to be asked at this critical juncture?. The stock market is a such a beautiful place where it accommodates all sorts of people irrespective of their participation…Bulls, Bears, Day-traders, Swing-traders, Investors, Riggers, Manipulators, above all the Market Operators and the Regulators in its journey either up or down.

In my earlier post on 20-07-07 suggested the sectors and the stocks to buy with a title “The up-move unlimited!…The markets world over inching up day after day despite of some concerns and negative views and cautious suggestions from the brokerage houses.
The Nifty has crossed the 4480-4520 range as posted earlier, now the suggestion is stay invested with the remaining balance in the del. of Idea, Bharti, Zeel, Ster, IDBI and IDFC. In case of compulsive nature to take del. try in Ranbaxy, L&T and Dabur. The FMCG move could in the offing as the retailers increasing their space rapidly. It is very likely that DLF and UNITECH will be included in the NIFTY by next quarter. So accumulate in small lots and gain from the move. The early initiatives from the KPO and CRAMS likely to benefit India and the nuclear deal can make a lot of change in the valuations of the equipment manufactures like BHEL, ABB, Punj Lloyd. The NTPC, REL and Tata power will benefit, as they are leaders in power generation. The above companies can be accumulated, and the fall becomes a big opportunity.

The Nifty has resistance at 4583-89 range, in case it trades below 4555-4551, bears will have the advantage. The RIL may get selling pressure if it fails to trade above 1901-03 in the first half an hour and the low is below 1885. The run-up in banks likely to continue incase SBI trades above 1589-91 and ICICI above 993. Those who are holding the Idea del from 118 can book profits at 135 as suggested. The Bharti del holders can wait until it stays above 873-71. Incase persons long in Nifty can prune their positions by 50%.

So start buying with a perspective of 6 months in mind and reap the full benifts of investments.

The stock markets are not for BULLS only...?

I am attaching this to recapitulate the anticipation made in advance to make a clear decision in days to come....
In my earlier posting titled-----“The need to press panic button?…. The answer is certainly “no”. The technical analysts, the viewers of this blog might now that the fall could be massive and the levels expected yet to come. So why this cry?- the answer could be the speed and steep fall occurred without warning to many but not to the readers as I clearly stated on The bears are making in………roads?.… The volatility is not because of the expiry of the July but the preparation for a deep cut on the face of bulls by the bears.

As posted, RIL came to 1791, we expected 1785, ITC in bear grip until it trades below 169.
No need to get panic until RIL trades above 1711-09, SBI trades above 1435-39, RCOM trades above 491, Tata steel trades above 585 and Bharti trades above 806-09 levels. So wait for the right opportunity and start accumulating in the blue chips”.

The fall can become an oppertunity and can accumulate in small lots as the Nifty is likely to touch 4075 level as expected earlier. The markets are influenced by external forces but they live short period but OUR ECONOMY & PERFORMANCE that matters at the end of the day.
So those who believe that our economy can do well, can start buying blue chips with special focus on emerging sectors.

Who is sick and who is paying the bills?

The US is facing the problems of Sub-prime sickness and hospitalized for its own reasons. But unfortunately the world is worried over the emperor’s ill health and the kings are paying the hospital bills.
The Indian economy is intact and the emerging markets growth was not questioned but the indices are falling because of the “Global Economy” tag.
The markets will realize soon and chase the stocks in INDIA. But the damage is done and the heart attacks are not accounted as of now every body is looking through some other person’s spectacles. At the end of the day the question is “who is sick and who is paying the hospital bills”.

No Green, All Red?

The world is now under tremendous pressures on Sub-prime issue. Renowned companies involved and struggling to save their face in spite of having experts of top quality failed to save them.
Anyway the number game is to live so long the market lives. The Nifty is likely to open below the support level 4330 and could even touch mid June levels of 4140 immediately. The rampage is a carry forward effect; it should recover fast before it could consolidate further. To such effect, Nifty should trade above 4320 level with 4-5 trading sessions. The RIL has good support at 1792, SBI has good support at 1540-45, ONGC has good support at 833-34, Bharati has good support at829-30, Infy has good support at 1920-35, TCS has good support at 1093-96, Satyam has good support at 459-61, Wipro has good support at 462-59, Tata steel has good support at 620-23, Sail has good support at 139 level NTPC has good support at 161-63, ITC has good support at 158-59 levels.
In case SBI trades below 1485, the market is under severe bear pressure, in that case it should trade above 1540.

Worries about to widen in future?

The Sub-prime issue is not surfaced days back but before two months. The indices climbed high and to higher level even after the news broke. It is now became an issue to brought the prices down and cause anxiety in the minds of the investors. The game plan can be easily understood- the stock prices of mid caps and selective large caps whose upward is not warranted but moved to lure the weak hands to participate. Now every body is talking that the prices are mouth watering but more pain is left as the indices can correct up to 30-40%. Just think about these statements aired and are for whose sake?.
All the leading brokerage houses, MFs and FIIs have their research teams to study the situation but the poor retail investors lack the strength but driven. So one can understand the love and the helping nature of the wealthy and deep-pocketed market operators. One statement, once again “If you are an investor the fall will become an opportunity, otherwise a wiper”.

Governments Infused the Oxygen?

The markets really looking for the Global cues but bears waging their best battle to win, so that they even bring the markets in to bear grip. The Friday up move from lows and to days work is to save the day while waiting to see more unfolds from the Sub-Prime.
I think the markets will fall by its own wait unless bulls take charge of the situation to see Nifty trade above 4401-03 level in the morning first hour. So long Nifty trade below 4391 level is a caution to longs and incase it trades below 4339 no longs at all. Tomorrow, RIL has to cross the high of 1846 and shall not trade below 1818 level to keep faith in the up move. The Bharti shall trade above 863 and high shall cross 876. The two will tell the future tale of bull move.
As suggested, those who have taken delivery in IDBI at around 104-06 level can exit around 139-141 level, in case it trades below 116-114 level can book profits and fresh shorts can be initiated.
Now every body is interested in low volatile & defensive stocks, ofcourse they turn volatile once the retail section chase.
Sorry for not publishing the Monday possibility.

The World Indices for a Toss!

The world is reeling under the sub-prime lending issues of US, spreads to the world across. The economy is so inter linked in this era of modern dynamic days that no single economy is independent of it’s own. The interdependence is good when the sailing is smooth but things worsen when they move for a wrong reason.

The beauty of this kind of fall is that it offers blue chips, emerging stocks for a throw away price. The stocks like BHEL, ABB, L&T, NTPC, WIPRO, Divis, IDBI, IDFC, YES Bank, Moser Bear, Praj Ind and RIL. No matter to mention the leading big boys who emerge fast once the dust settles. So grab the opportunity from Monday onwards.
For today, RIL has good support at 1792, SBI at 1591-89, Infy at 1886, TCS 1106-03, Satyam at 451-48, BHEL at 1665, L&T at 2380, RCOM 511-09, Tata steel at 621-18, Sail at 139-41 level. A thumb rule is expect 4-5% down in Large caps to 7-10% in Midcaps.

No Longer a Haven for Retail Investors?

The markets are no longer a haven for retail investors in these conditions as the volatility has increased considerably. The FIIs and Mutual funds are violent in dealing with the markets that to with the retail participants. The truth is to make the retail investors to opt for the mutual fund route. This enables them to “live and let live” approach. But the traders have no option but to live or die, where as the swing traders swing more in the evenings than with the market movement.
The free calls, paid calls, TV channels, the blogs (like me) and the cell phone intra day calls are to make the liquidity enough in the market so that the operators can enter and exit easily. So “who will save the retail investor?” is the question at this point in time. The answer is ………
No person works for the other person to become rich that to in the stock market it will never happen. Unfortunately there are very few PARTICIPANTS who seriously try to understand the “Rules of the Game” but participate on the tips to make money easily that never happen at the end of the day. The stock market is a fierce battlefield where every body is a “WANTED” and wants to FOOL the other person to make enough profits.
Those persons who comprise the ability to analyse the economy and the performance of the company can make profits in the medium to long-term period. The market movement is always in line with the company’s performance on the longer run but the fluctuations are due to the traders and the calls created demand and supply.

Now Bears showed their power!

The Nifty faced resistance at 4530 at the same point when the Nifty took the U-turn from the 4647 level drifted to 4403 bounced back to 4534 level from there touched a low of 4267 again faced the resistance at the same level.
The Nifty may take longer period to touch the 4500 level unless it trades above 4366 tomorrow and cross 4443-45 levels.
The conditions may very much depend on the US and Asian market cues. But technically Infy is good above 1935+, RIL above 1821, SBI above 1610 and Bharti above 857-59. Incase tomorrow the levels were breached, then the bears pressure is very high and Nifty may see lower levels. If it is a normal profit booking and fresh shorts added Nifty would trade above 4335-39 levels then the damage can be managed with in a few days, otherwise Nifty has good support at 4075-79 levels.

Bulls made their mark!

As posted the move came from the techs that gained 5-10% and lot more to add once the move yield results. The trigger from the RBI’s decision to control the Rupee rise helped bulls the most needed support to take a retaliating move on the bourses.
The situation is in favour of bulls but the move is so steep that finds difficult to hold because the leaders moved fast in hurry. So this move helps the bulls to make the bears to cover the shorts but it is not a good sign to run the bull run. In other words bulls discharged from the hospital and participated in a sprint, which exhausts much energy. Any way the fact is a fact, so far so good and need of the hour is to see the Nifty trades above 4424-28 levels.
The condition holds good in case ICICI, HDFC, Bharti, RCOM, ITC and HUL take the charge to lead and the rest maintain the show.
The negative factors- metals weak, autos have trouble at the ignition point, capital goods are the sufferers of the RBI’s move and the teleco are breathing, SBI advanced far to add numbers to Nifty.

The Green is more, Volatility settled?

The World loves green after a weeklong massacre on the bourses. The stocks jumped over 1-2 percent with a positive note. The markets in India can see much needed support from the techs as the RBI measures to control the rise of rupee against dollar. Now raising money through ECB’s become more difficult to Indian industry.

So it is likely that the techs will be re-rated with 5-10% up, as experts say that rupee will touch 41-5-41.8 ranges in next 3 months. The Infy will cross 2020+, Satyam will cross 510+, Wipro above 535+ and TCS will cross 1225+, Mphasis above 320+ and Polaris above 128+ as the measures start yielding results. The good deals for Indian IT's will be announced soon, for now Wipro opening two centers in China and one in US, Infy, TCS and Satyam already announced such positive news to markets.

Yester day discussed conditions valid, and the teleco will do well Bharti good above 879 Idea above 126 and RCOM above 441. A word of caution the bear pressure may come to surface at 4485-89 ranges but for now so long Nifty trades above 4339 is safe to bull to maintain long.

The profits booked in doubt?

As posted the markets opened up above 4361, the RIL has made 1792 as low and Bharti stayed above 873. The ONGC, RCOM and INFY failed to stay above their best support levels to sustain the bull move as opened.
Now the concern is the Nifty closed below 4361 level at 4356, RCOM closed below 536 and ITC lost the bull support and trading below 169 is a worrying factor. To make the gains made to be sustainable Nifty shall not trade below 4336 and low shall not breach the support level at 4327. The bull gain strength tomorrow when RIL cross 1839, RCOM 543, Bharti 883, Infy 1993 and TCS above 1129. Those who have taken del. in IDBI can continue to hold until it trades above 109.
The global markets may take some profit booking as we did today but the fall shall not be steep to crate anxiety in the opening.

WHO is buying?WHO is burying?

The markets are in a state of confusion and the payers like FI’s, FII’s, traders, investors, hedge funds and fund managers acting in suspicion and maligning the counter part for this situation. It seems that everybody acting as if the other person is deceiving, the cycle is going on and at the end of the day all become fools of their foolishness.
As posted earlier the markets touched 4263 level below the expected level of 4275. In my post tilted-“The deep pockets benefits…..?… The long-term investors can accumulate the growth stocks when the Nifty touches 4270+ levels.
In another post “The bears are making in………roads?. The short term is good for shorts, Nifty may face resistance at 4635-39 level and likely to touch 4273-75 level by mid August. Incase failed to hold then it will touch 4078-75 level which the market missed to touch before it could leap to this level.

The technicals suggest that the markets bottomed temporarily and can see some up move from here. The Nifty closing above 4336 is a positive sign in that direction. To confirm the up move RIL has to open above 1792 and RCOM above 541, Bharti above 873-76 levels, the ONGC shall trade above 881 and Infosys shall open above 1883. This all tighter will put the Nifty opening above 4361, a good sign to bulls to control the bleed.

The Indices look Southward!

The markets suffered the big jolt by the US sub-prime lending issues, we are no exception. We are likely to open below the good support levels developed at 4331-35, but the challenge is whether we could able to come back fast before the steam exhausts. The top index mover RIL has to trade above 1776 level for today to see some recovery, to sustain the bull run it has to trade above 1718 and for any reason it shall not trade below 1671 to see the bull move to sustain.
The day support level to see recovery- RIL has good support at 1776-73, good for long above 1801 (one can try to buy above 1791). ONGC has good support at 876-73, good for long above 917. Above 528, RCOM has buyer’s support, Tata steel supports exist at 621-23 level.
Brave hearts can start accumulating the future performers from now like Zee around 290+, Idea at 118-14, RCOM 501-06, Tata Motors at 620-580, M&M at 620-590 range, Ranbaxy at 355-345.

Value Buying OR Burying for Now?

The markets are falling but "worth buying now?"is the challenging question to be answered. The prudent saying about the market is “Never catch a falling knife in the market”. The world is changing fast to accept risk as an integral function of life. Now I say the maxim can be considered as “Never catch a falling sword”. I believe that the INVESTOR will consider market given oppertunity as an "Opportunity in Risking or a Risky Opportunity".
The room for up side is valid so long as our economy is growing at 7-8% and the markets are bound to move up, even small bumps and pots holes come in the way of their successful journey. The difficult thing is to live with difficult times even though we may have bright future a head.

Can the up move sustained?

As posted Nifty touched 4428+, SBI strong above 1603 touched 1652, RCOM crossed 554, Tata steel stayed above 654 range, gave good returns to buyers. The realty sectors got good support from investors. Nifty sustained the up move with the support from all sectors especially capital goods, the banks and metals.
The challenge now is to see the immediate support levels shall not be melted as they formed with double bottom support. The nuclear 1-2-3 is good sign for bilateral relations and economic ties with USA.
The concern on technical front is the drag on Nifty by auto & tech weights, Bharti, ICICI bank and Reliance down ward moves building nervousness. The banks move relatively reached to complacency levels is a threat to the upward move of Nifty. The mid-caps will out perform in the coming up move, as the future is very promising to them. The Monday move is very crucial to the markets and should stay above 4373 and any down ward move will be serious that could wipe out at least 250 points.