Thursday, July 24, 2014
Tuesday, July 22, 2014
RAIN..NO RAIN..HOW GAIN...??????????
Why the monsoon numbers hide reality
Because the ecology of various regions differs, it is silly to club them all under one countrywide average number
Nitin Sethi | New Delhi
July 22, 2014 Last Updated at 08:10 IST
A whopping three-fourth of the country’s geographic area is right now facing a rainfall deficit severe enough to warrant crisis management. The Indian Meteorological Department’s data shows that 74% of India has so far recorded monsoon rainfall much below its normal levels.
Of the 36 rainfall divisions that the IMD divides the country in, 25 are reeling from rains much below what is considered normal for the region. As of yesterday 22 of the 25 have recorded rainfall dipping by more than 40% below the normal for the specific belts.
Even by the lax Indian government definition, less than 20% rain means a meteorological drought (earlier it used to be triggered on official records by a 10% dip in rainfall).
Yet the IMD figure of 31% country-wide area-weighted average figure for the entire monsoon season or a 15-16% deficiency in the last week’s rainfall country-wide area-weighted data is being deployed to suggest that the monsoon is not all that bad and its only getting better when one compares to the previous week.
Let’s not get fooled by the averages. Farmers who depend upon monsoon to water their fields do not live by averages, they have to survive the extremes and the variation in the rains through the season. For a farmer, how the rain is spread over the monsoon period is critical. A dry sowing period followed by a huge downpour at a later stage of plant growth can be cataclysmic. For an analyst keeping sight of only the average rainfall it will only show a near ‘normal’ rosy picture of rain catching up finally.
The pattern of rain that is most advantageous also differs from crop to crop, in fact, also from seed variety to seed variety. The availability of hardy short-duration varieties that shall survive low rainfall levels but give relatively lower productivity are a safer bet for a farmer in a bad monsoon. The farmer has a short time-gap and the increasing unpredictability of rainfall patterns to make these calls. This is where the government and the IMD reports are meant to come in handy. To have the right seed available and to have it in time is critical. To keep the fields ready to start sowing operations.

Northern Limit of Monsoon
To understand the complexity of decision-making a farmer faces, one has to only read the regional Agromet advisories that the government puts out periodically. For any average city-dweller in India who only has to deal with the question of whether the city roads will be clogged with overflowing sewage or not, it can send the head spinning.
It is true, the monsoon is catching up in parts, the IMD raw-data shows. But, for a real picture of where it is and where it is not going to be enough, one only needs to survey the regional papers that reflect a more district-level variation of the hinterland.
To reassert the point on getting lost in averages: normal monsoon in the evergreen ecological belts of Manipur, Mizoram, is 686.6 .4 mm for the season. For the drylands of Saurashtra, it is merely 213.1 mm for the same period. The ecology of the regions differs. Therefore, what the people grow and how they grow differs. It is silly, by any logic, mathematical interpretation or ecological sense, to club them all under one countrywide average number when reviewing how they shall fare through a year of climate and weather patterns.
http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/why-the-monsoon-numbers-hide-reality-114072100869_1.html
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MY SERIOUS CONCERN IS ABOUT THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE MONEY IN THE CURRENT SCENARIO FROM STOCKS THAT CAN RARELY OFFER LITTLE HEAD ROOM DUE TO WORRISOME EXTERNAL FACTORS AND FAILURE OF MONSOON FOR NOW...
THE MARKETS ARE SHIFTING GEARS TO SAFE ZONES....IN FUTURE THE INVESTMENTS WILL GO TO GOLD & SILVER, FOR NOW PLS WAIT FOR SOME MONTHS, TILL OCTOBER. I THINK THE YEARLY LOW CUTS WILL BE THE ORDER OF PLAY IN THE STOCK MARKETS. THE TELECOM, IT, INSURANCE AND JEWELRY STOCKS CAN SEE SOME SUPPORT BUT REST OF THE UNIVERSE WILL DRIFT LIKE LAND SLIDES. .....A FREE FALL AND MAY WILL COME WITH EXCUSES AND SOME COME WITH LONGTERM STORY.
Sunday, July 20, 2014
PHENOMENAL RISE&HIGHs but A Denial for NOW….!!!
PHENOMENAL RISE&HIGHs but A Denial
for NOW….
The Indian markets have performed
stupendously, like a race against all ODDs and against all emerging markets. We
are the best performing Indices YTD or for the quarter. The Rise is so phenomenal
that no-body expected but few could CASH the opportunity. Now many new entrants
are making inquiries and many more are looking as a decent opportunity to make HUGE money to meet their DREAMS.
The fact is that, since
January-14, Nifty rose by 20%, Mid-Caps by 30% and Small caps by 55%, some Individual
stocks rose by 400-700% from their LOWs. The hype generated now is due to
change in the Government, a market friendly team at the top. But the fact is
that No-body could SELL the National property via LIBERALIZATION for no reason,
nor for a simple cause. The National growth based on immediate requirements and
will be judged by prioritising/striking a right balance between “NECESSITY
& COMMERCIALIZATION”. The Future is GOOD as huge investments will take place
and the results will come in due course of time.
As far as the Stock Markets rise
is concerned, a dead cheap stocks are at a historic low was one of the major reasons
for FIIs relentless investments. The Global markets are also encouraging and
FREE Supply/HIGH Liquidity is driving the markets for NOW. Very few are working
on the REAL worth for the paper but relying on the PROJECTIONS. The Nifty is
POISED for touching 9000+ as experts are working on the next 3-year EARNINGS
and P/E that could safely take us above the above said number. I am not
pessimistic but play a realistic role for valuing the Available Opportunity. The
main reason for Nifty may seek SOUTHWARD JOURNEY because of looming DROUGHT,
Poor Investments made by the CORPORATES in the Preceding/Previous 2-3 years, so
NO earnings Surprise by the top companies.
So, the scenario is GLOOM in the Short-term, however the POLICY push can give some bounce but for the next ONE year
will be very challenging. The Nifty stocks are moving up but the UN-Winding is
a concern. The rise from here may not be that much sharp or serious, from here
2-Ups and 4-5 Downs. Because the FUTURE is promising, on any DEEP cut/ steep fall
BULLs take charge to make a comeback to take away the Retail Investors most of
the STOP-LOSSES.
THE BLOOM and GLOOM story…..THE MOMENTUM IS HIGH….
THE NIFTY MAY TOUCH 8785-8850 RANGE; BUT VERY LIKELY, IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY TOUCH 7000, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 6600-6400 RANGE
THE BANK-NIFTY MAY TOUCH 20100-22000 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY TOUCH 12500-800, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF
IT TOUCHES 10100-10300 RANGE
THE RELIANCE MAY TOUCH 1450-1550 RANGE;IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY TOUCH 801-811, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 759-736 RANGE
THE ONGC MAY TOUCH 620-650 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY TOUCH 311-321,
NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 270 RANGE
THE SBI MAY TOUCH 3850-3950 RANGE, IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY TOUCH 1920-1950,
NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 1450-1430 RANGE
THE ICICI MAY TOUCH 2130-2080 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY TOUCH 1180-1220, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 970-950 RANGE
THE RELCAPITAL MAY TOUCH 950-1050 RANGE;IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY TOUCH 440-415, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 330 RANGE
THE RELINFRA MAY TOUCH 1080-1150 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY TOUCH 520-540, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 440 RANGE
WE CAN EXTEND AND READ MORE
NUMBERS… BUT THE DENIAL IS RIDING HIGH EVEN IN MY MIND…
PLS DON’T BUY NOW UNTIL NIFTY
TOUCHES 7250-80 RANGE, BUT THE ACTUAL BUYING IN QUALITY STOCKS SHALL EMERGE
FROM 7000 ONLY. THOSE WHO ARE COMPULSIVE, SHALL TAKE A STOPLOSS ROUTE RATHER
THAN HOLDING FOR LONGER…THW WAIT MAY BE 3 YEARS…!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sunday, July 13, 2014
BUDGET -BETTER GAINS ---mid-cap companies...!!!
PLS READ MY EARLIER POSTING ON BUDGET DAY MORNING..I SUGGESTED THE LIKELY BUDGET PROPOSAL...THEY REFLECTED...!!!
NOW BASED ON THE BUDGET, THE MOST BENEFICIAL COMPANIES WERE IDENTIFIED BY ET..
Mid-cap companies in sectors spanning banking, cement, footwear, infrastructure, irrigation, pharmaceuticals, renewable energy, restaurants, retail chains and tourism will benefit from FY 15 Budget proposals in the medium- ..
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stocks-in-news/mid-cap-companies-to-benefit-from-budget-proposals-top-30-stocks/articleshow/38195977.cms
NOW BASED ON THE BUDGET, THE MOST BENEFICIAL COMPANIES WERE IDENTIFIED BY ET..
For select mid-cap companies, proposals on both direct and indirect taxes will be a booster. Higher income tax exemption limits will boost savings and, in turn, spending by consumers — a much-needed trigger at a time when there is a demand slowdown.
Mid-cap companies in sectors spanning banking, cement, footwear, infrastructure, irrigation, pharmaceuticals, renewable energy, restaurants, retail chains and tourism will benefit from FY 15 Budget proposals in the medium- ..
BAMMIDI-DEEP-MONDAY-14-07-2014
The bounce is very likely on the cards not for the BUDGET positives but due to the OVERSOLD ZONE coupled with good news of IIP numbers and US & EUROPE greener closing...!!!
The
overall BUDGET is good for the economy and for the markets in the Medium term
to Long-term but these gyrations are due to Unwinding of Leveraged positions
and offloading some of the High beta counters by the HNIs and some fund houses…
The Nifty
lost nearly 400 points from the Highs, 7808 to 7447 but if we consider the F&O
series, from the opening it lost nearly 65 points only. The Counters like Zee
up by-8, Sun Pharma up by- 75+, RANBAXY up by 58+, TATA MOTORS - up by 14+, MARUTI- up by 65+, IRB up by 17+, INFY up by 108+, IDFC up by 18+, HLL up by 19+, HDFC up by 23+ and DrReddy up by 155+ Adani ports, Bharat Forge and many more....
The strength
of the markets is intact as the SECTOR rotation has become the priority of the
DAY/WEEK. The IT counters made a decent come back and the Pharma has extended
their support apart from the FMCG (Mainly positive due to GST implementation by
Dec-14).
The FDI hike to 49% in Insurance sector is good news and the long-term
is very promising to this sector. The scrips like Reliance Capital, ICICI, SBI
and HDFC likely to get re-rated. The other banking stocks into Insurance may
see bottom support.
The Broad band HIGHWAY and low power consuming LED lights can offer
better returns in the long-term. The Infra opportunity is only an opportunity
at least for next 6- months as many issues need to be addressed.
The
Global news will dictate the next week, mostly favourable news is building. The
improvement in the rain fall scenario and the economic growth based on the
declared IIP numbers. The Nifty will be in trading range of 7350-7650 for some
time. The quarterly results will influence the Nifty and the counters as well
but will stay above 7280 level. Any move below this support level shall be
taken seriously and avoid further buying for short-term gains.
The Nifty
has good support at 7445, 7380 and at 7350 level for now. The bounce could take
us to 7559 and 7660-80 level without any serious resistance from the BEARS. The
real test will come into force when NIFTY trades above 7650 level and Reliance
above 1030 level. The banks charts got their structure OUT of SHAPE, any up
move can be good chance to off-load unless there is very favourable news is
announced.
The ICICI is positive only when it breaches 1449 and stays above 1426-29
level, SBI has good potential above 2640, HDFC has more space above 1017-22
level. Relcapital consolidates around 524-594 range for some time before it
take a leap and is good above 608 after consolidation. The Rel-Infra has
tremendous potential going forward but the consolidation around 685-776 is on
the cards. The counters of ADAG are high beta counters and swing is high/volatile.
The Reliance is in midst of many controversies be it in World Cup FOOT-BALL
tickets, D-6 gas arbitration and retail business profitability prospects and
many… The ONGC is good above 406-08 for 430 targets and Reliance can touch
1022-26 range. The seriously beaten down counters like PFC, BOI, CanBk, BoB,
PNB, SBI, Adani, L&T and United Spirits can offer decent returns in this
week.
Thursday, July 10, 2014
FM-JAITLEY-Budget 2014-15 Highlights
I HAVE POSTED MORNING "LIKELY BUDGET"...
THAT REFLECTED IN THE UNION BUDGET....PLS VERIFY..!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
...............................
ECONOMY » BUDGET
Union Budget 2014-15 Highlights
July 10, 2014:
BUDGET HIGHLIGHTS...!!!
Budget
- 18:43 | Mixed reactions of steel, mining sectors
- 18:39 | Rupee logs worst drop in a month, down 44p at 60.19 vs dollar
- 18:38 | Index swings over 800 points on B-Day
- 18:37 | Budget signals drive for higher growth: TCS
- 18:34 | FM bets big on disinvestment
- 18:30 | Growth, investment dominates Jaitley's budget speech
- 18:30 | USIBC welcomes increase in FDI limit in insurance, defence
- 18:29 | FM in tune with Rajan plans on monetary policy, new banks
- 18:24 | Goa: BJP welcomes budget, Congress critical
- 18:23 | Sangh & allies smile, but Cong says Budget has "zero vision"
- 18:20 | Long on investment, short on consumption
- 18:19 | Modi in the House
- 18:17 | Who gets what from the Union budget
- 18:16 | Chhattisgarh chief minister welcomes Union Budget
- 18:15 | Budget can help create 5-8 million jobs in next 3-4 years: Experts
- 18:09 | Govt to reduce stake in its banks, but will have majority share
- 18:05 | Govt bonds wipe off gains as traders trim positions
- 18:04 | All depts to integrate with eBiz platform by December end: FM
- 18:04 | Companies to mandatorily adopt new accounting standards by 2016-17
- 18:00 | Strict mechanism to control fuel quality being put in place: Govt
- 17:59 | Four new AIIMS to come up with a corpus of Rs 500 crore
- 17:57 | Telangana CM expresses dissatisfaction over budget
- 17:54 | Allocation for modernization of state police forces raised to Rs 3000 crores
- 17:51 | Budget is 'sanjeevani' for moribund economy: PM
- 17:51 | Duty relief a plus for energy sector, but no big-ticket moves
- 17:48 | Budget provides tax clarity for foreign investors
- 17:43 | Some relief in your monthly budget
- 17:39 | More money at the hands of taxpayers
- 17:38 | Budget credit positive, but implementation is the key: Fitch
- 17:38 | Budget: Samajwadi Party terms Budget pro-capitalist
- 17:36 | Budget delivers e-visas, travel sops to high-flyers
- 17:35 | Budget sets tone for higher growth trajectory, job creation: India Inc
- 17:30 | Increasing FDI cap to 49% in insurance will boost capital inflow: Experts
- 17:30 | Online, mobile ads turn costlier
- 17:29 | Govt to reduce stake in its banks, but will have majority share
- 17:26 | FDI cap hike to allow investment by FIIs, NRIs
- 17:24 | Govt to raise long-term capital gains tax on debt MF to 20%
- 17:21 | Mamata calls budget missionless, actionless'
- 17:20 | Debt funds will take a hit as tax doubles, tenure trebles
- 17:12 | Budget reflects seriousness of new govt: Jayalalithaa
- 17:10 | Duty benefits to boost garments, precious stone exports: FM
- 17:07 | Government to borrow Rs 6 lakh crore in FY15
- 17:05 | Nabard terms budget proposals for farm as 'positive, timely'
- 17:01 | Jaitley has done great job: Union ministers
- 17:00 | E-Visa facility at nine airports will boost tourism sector: FHRAI
- 16:47 | Budget strong, reflects new government's philosophy: Naina Lal Kidwai
- 16:46 | Union Budget historic: UP BJP
- 16:46 | Budget moves a needed boost for both realty sector, buyers
- 16:40 | CBI gets Rs 520.56 crore in budgetary allocation
- 16:37 | Govt to clear highways sector from maze of clearances: FM
- 16:36 | Budget positive for the automotive sector: Ashok Leyland MD
- 16:30 | Sonia asks Rahul to take front row seat for budget presentation
- 16:27 | Corporate winners and losers from the Union Budget
- 16:15 | Govt keeps IT rates unchanged
- 16:13 | New urea policy will be formulated: FM
- 16:12 | J-K benefits with Rs 500-cr package for Kashmiri migrants, IIT
- 16:04 | Govt proposes to resolve current impasse in mining sector
- 16:03 | Budget proposals will bring back growth: Mayaram
- 16:03 | Nitish dubs Modi govt budget as 'disappointing'
- 16:00 | Govt to review DTC bill in its present form :Jaitley
- 15:58 | Govt proposes tax incentives for REITs, InvITs
- 15:58 | Budget doesn't reflect common man's aspirations: Opposition
- 15:58 | Rs 500 cr for creation of 5 tourist circuits
- 15:58 | Jaitley raises subsidy bill but promises overhaul of grants
- 15:50 | PPP is new mantra for infra in Jaitley's maiden budget
- 15:40 | FM announces 11.4% hike for Civil Aviation Ministry
- 15:40 | Doubling bauxite export duty will improve availability of raw material: FM
- 15:40 | Modi comes with a 'health for all' agenda
- 15:39 | BJP to continue with UPA's Rs 20,953 crore project in Tamil Nadu
- 15:36 | FDI in realty, tax sops for REITs to boost housing segment: Experts
- 15:35 | Govt to allocate Rs 7,060 cr to develop 100 'smart cities'
- 15:31 | Government committed to 'housing for all' by 2022 :Jaitley
- 15:30 | Budget to send positive signal to foreign investors: Paul
- 15:30 | Budget 'anti-poor' and a 'disappointment': Cong leads opp fire
- 15:30 | NDA government of FDI, by FDI & for FDI: Mamata
- 15:20 | For every Re in govt kitty, 24 paise to come from borrowing
- 15:20 | Liberal tax regime to be introduced for Foreign Portfolio Investors: FM
- 15:10 | Markets slip in red on profit taking
- 15:04 | Unsure if Indian govt can meet FY15 fiscal deficit target: Fitch
- 15:01 | Gowda to consider insurance raise for rail mishap victims:Naik
- 15:00 | FM says govt will take 'effective steps' to revive SEZs
- 14:55 | Moody's says budget lacks details on fiscal deficit target
- 14:55 | Slum development will be treated as CSR: Jaitley
- 14:49 | Govt proposes measures to energise capital markets
- 14:40 | FM retains retro tax, but says panel will scrutinise cases
- 14:33 | Jaitley pushes for domestic manufacturing of electronics
- 14:29 | Gems and jewellery shares fall after govt keeps import duty unchanged
- 14:23 | FM allocates Rs 1,000 cr for renewable sector schemes
- 14:20 | Retaining fiscal deficit at 4.1% big positive: analysts
- 14:15 | Govt increases import duty on stainless steel to 7.5%
- 14:14 | Govt to allocate Rs 2.29 lakh crore for Defence Ministry
- 14:08 | Disinvestment target revised upwards to Rs 58,425 cr
- 13:59 | Ganga development gets Rs 2,037 cr
- 13:54 | FM hikes basic exemption, 80C limits
- 13:42 | Budget announces new irrigation scheme for growers
- 13:32 | 24-hour TV channel dedicated to agriculture sector: FM
- 13:22 | Five changes in the budget for the stock market
- 13:21 | New IITs, IIMs and a boost to skill sector
- 13:21 | Rs.1,000 crore proposed for railways in northeast
- 12:52 | Govt allocates Rs 500 cr for Internet connectivity in villages
- 12:51 | Rs.10,000 cr venture capital fund for start-ups: Major push for entrepreneurship
- 12:45 | FM says FY15 fiscal deficit will be 4.1%
- 12:40 | FM proposes to raise FDI in insurance to 49%
- 12:37 | Jaitley terms Chidambaram's fiscal deficit target of 4.1% as 'daunting'
- 12:36 | Govt hopes to finalise GST contours this year: Jaitley
- 12:16 | What does pass through status for REITs mean?
- 12:09 | Budget presentation halted mid-way
- 11:41 | Insurance composite FDI cap raised to 49%: FM
- 10:00 | First budget test of Modi's reform mettle
- 06:08 | Gold up on softer dollar, Budget eyed for import duty cut
- 00:30 | India slipping on climate change targets
- http://www.business-standard.com/latest-news/
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