| Markets bet on Subbarao surprise |
| Rates of certificates of deposit and overnight indexed swap suggest there is hope for a rate cut |
| INFLATION YARDSTICK What the central bank considered for policy action | ||||
| Date | Policy | Expectation | Action | Reason |
| Jul 26,11 | First quarter monetary policy review | 25-bp rate rise | Rate rise by 50 bps | High WPI |
| Sep 16,11 | Mid-quarter policy review | 25-bp rate rise | Rate rise by 25 bps | High WPI, CPI |
| Oct 25,’11 | Second quarter monetary policy review | No repo rate rise | Rate rise by 25 bps | High WPI |
| Dec 16,’11 | Mid-quarter policy review | No change in rate but CRR cut expected | No change | Moderation in WPI, CPI |
| Jan 24,’12 | Third quarter monetary policy review | CRR cut | CRR cut by 50 bps | Moderation in growth, WPI |
| Mar 15,12 | Mid-quarter policy review | Repo cut | No change | WPI moderated though CPI sticky |
| Apr 17,’12 | Annual monetary & credit policy | 0-25-bp rate cut | Rate cut by 50 bps | Fall in growth, WPI though CPI was high |
| Jun 18, ‘12 | Mid-quarter policy review | 25-bp repo rate cut | No change | High CPI though WPI moderated |
| WPI: Wholesale Price Index; CPI: Consumer Price Index; CRR: Cash Reserve Ratio; bps: Basis points Source: RBI | ||||
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