The serious Bull supporting traders so surprised by Nifty at 5180 level but it may be a big opportunity for those whose move to cover the shortsof their 5350 level. The early move of fall triggered when the Nifty low cut the 5345 level and the ONGC cut the 1093 and the worst support case at 1081 level.
The major stocks except Hero Honda, Tatamotors, Infy, TCS wipro and such robust strength stocks, all other shed their 10-13% of their recent highs and the weak counters like ONGC, SAIL shed more than that. Now the market is grappled with fear of global shock if not melt down due to the GOLDMAN. The hiding of facts is known to markets even before the SEC notice as they know in advance by 6 months when the Govt served notices. So it took the market makers to move to two years high in the global indices level, the news broke, just take a brake.
Any way, now we have to deal with the situation and the situation for Bulls is not yet worse. The Nifty took good support for the day at 5160 level but the skewed move of the Nifty movers is a cause of concern.
The yesterday leaders like DLF, Tata Steel, JSW, SesaGoa on the bourses are severely beaten down due to domestic news like inflation and controlling measure to contain inflation. The RBI is going to take stringent measures that affect the real estate and the liquidity in the system. The stocks may find support or hammering but it is certain that the markets are unlikely to cross 5375 level in the next 20 days to one month as the triggers are drying up to charge the Bulls.
Apart from the specific case, the Index will be in good health only when the high crosses 5245-50 level and closes above 5224-28 level by tomorrow evening. The ONGC shall close above 1015 level and high shall cross 1024-26 level, is a good sign to the Nifty. The Nifty is very likely to touch 5080 level for a reasonable bounce but for tomorrow short covering shall happen with out fail. To confirm the same, the major stocks shall cross the highs to take of the resistance like ONGC shall cross the high of 1024, RIL shall cross1077/1084-good, DLF shall cross 324/326 is good, the ster shall cross 841, Bharti shall cross 312, Sail shall cross 227,SBI shall cross 2047, where as ICICI has to cross 939, then we can confirm that the emerging markets are attracting buying.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Friday, March 12, 2010
The "either way" move.....
The easing inflation fattened the Nifty with support drawing from Russia’s Putin tour to India. The NTPC effort to meet the power demand is Reliance gain, So today RIL shall cross the resistance stated yesterday and then may fall to bears but that didn’t deter the bulls to holdon. Now the Nifty is in positive teritory and bulls have 60points advantage.
The much stated visit shall provide answers to the heavy weight laggard to rise to a respectable level to touch 1015+. The US markets are offering negative cuse but we made a decent advance to stay above 5092 level. But the bulls as stated earlier may yield to bear pressure as it looks on the charts. The metal sector especially the ferrous now at cross roads will find its way for next major move. As such there was no major deviation from the yesterdays levels but the DLF and HDIL are looking South, may loose 3-5% if DLF fails to trade above 316 and HDIL above 314.
The IT majors may find few takers than the offerings due to the sustained rally from the budget it gained. So the Wipro will be weak below 700 and TCS below 765 levels.
The markets likely to get pressure from RIL if it fails to trade above 1026 level and the makets fails to trade above 5123-26 level, then the metals and reality bite the dust and the banks bull unwindening will trigger sharper correction than anticipated. If the markets gets good support at the current closing level the DLF, HDIL,Tatasteel and sesa goa will catchup along with RIL and ONGC. The TataMotors, stake sale by Daimler effect can be traced once the stock trades below 765 and it will pull down the MM and other automajors.
The much stated visit shall provide answers to the heavy weight laggard to rise to a respectable level to touch 1015+. The US markets are offering negative cuse but we made a decent advance to stay above 5092 level. But the bulls as stated earlier may yield to bear pressure as it looks on the charts. The metal sector especially the ferrous now at cross roads will find its way for next major move. As such there was no major deviation from the yesterdays levels but the DLF and HDIL are looking South, may loose 3-5% if DLF fails to trade above 316 and HDIL above 314.
The IT majors may find few takers than the offerings due to the sustained rally from the budget it gained. So the Wipro will be weak below 700 and TCS below 765 levels.
The markets likely to get pressure from RIL if it fails to trade above 1026 level and the makets fails to trade above 5123-26 level, then the metals and reality bite the dust and the banks bull unwindening will trigger sharper correction than anticipated. If the markets gets good support at the current closing level the DLF, HDIL,Tatasteel and sesa goa will catchup along with RIL and ONGC. The TataMotors, stake sale by Daimler effect can be traced once the stock trades below 765 and it will pull down the MM and other automajors.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
The Bull Run is...but …????
The markets are in Bull grip but the steam is getting over as the developments over the budget bets are unfolding.
The major Nifty weitage stocks made the yearly highs especially the counters that triggered the current rally like Banks, IT majors, automobiles, cements and to some extent metals.
The serious drawback so far is the lack luster participation from the energy/oil sector majors, be it Reliance, ONGC, CAIRN,NTPC, Tatapower and the sideways movement in Bharti, RCOM and DLF also holding a cap on Nifty at 5135-40 level.
The favourable news like Nifty getting listed and the US futures getting listed in NSE may give some boost to overall market for sure.The strengthening of dollar can put value edition to the ITs and pharma but seriously impact the crude importers.
The major Nifty weitage stocks made the yearly highs especially the counters that triggered the current rally like Banks, IT majors, automobiles, cements and to some extent metals.
The serious drawback so far is the lack luster participation from the energy/oil sector majors, be it Reliance, ONGC, CAIRN,NTPC, Tatapower and the sideways movement in Bharti, RCOM and DLF also holding a cap on Nifty at 5135-40 level.
The favourable news like Nifty getting listed and the US futures getting listed in NSE may give some boost to overall market for sure.The strengthening of dollar can put value edition to the ITs and pharma but seriously impact the crude importers.
- The Nifty levels are in positive territory so long it trades above 5090 and gain strength above 5126 level. The RIL is pulled out of the deep sinking position but not out of woods unless it trades above1020-22 level, the positional carriers can hold the stock upto 993-95 level.
- Incase RIL fails to trade above 1036 in couple of days, it is heading south to touch 850 first and next 801-806 level.
- The Nifty has reasonable support below 100 points to todays closing. The TataMotors, Tatasteel, Jindal steel, Ster and ONGC are becoming weak as of now. The steel output and the usage figures fillup some positive feel shall keep the TataSteel above 620 levels to avert the said damage.
- TataSteel is weak below 609 and good above 618, SBI is good above 2040 weak below 2020, ICICI is weak below 915 good above 925, RIL is weak below 1002 good above 1018, ONGC is weak below 1093-95 good above 1105, Ster is good above 816-20 weak below 801-798 level for this day.
- The territory fight from bulls will be over if the Nifty trades below 5103 level and bulls gain strength only when it absorbs the gains from the Budget run at lower level.
Friday, February 26, 2010
BUDGET “OUT” –BUDGET
Please consider this is to buget out your self to tune in line with the actual budget placed by our FM. These suggestions carry very less importance as the actual budget be out by 12 noon today.
The major economic concerns now India is facing- FISCAL deficit, which is quite high. The main reason is the populist measures adopted for the last 3 years and accumilated pressure from the recent recession in the world economy, mainly from US. As we are partly celebrating the global recessionary impact, forced us to accept to stimulate the slowing down economy by pumping extra unbudgeted money into the system to float above the much debated rate of growth above 7.5-8%.
Now we are propelling our growth above the normal claims in numbers but the inflation is eating the savings. So there is no big joy to FIIs or to make call for FDIs to huge gains for the investments, so is our stock markets, performing to the tunes, is no special event at all. The inflation cutting measure may tighten the fund availability that may effect the sentiment in the stock marke as well.
With this backdrop, the FM will decide the allocation with concerns from the economists,
Socialists. The populist welfare measures as the key driving force for all the Governments, a model now globally accepted. The share sale of PSUs will be made to adjust the fiscal deficit. This will encourage some favours to some sectors and withdrawl of stimulus impacts many.
The funds allocation: as usual the defence sector will get the lions share. The Govt. will allow more private participation in defence projects. The eduction sector will open to foreign universiities. The agriculture sector will get the boost with subsidy to micro nutrients. The rural employment schemes will get 50% more hike and rural infra focus will be more. The health care will get good boost so is the corporate hospitals and pharma. The insurance sector will get good boost.
The FM very likely to reduce the surcharge on equity transactions and on corporate tax. The anomility existing to DIIs and FII s will be levelled. The implementation of the GST will be announced, may be by next fiscal. The customs duty will be increased on imported raw materials like MEG ect that benefit Reliance. The stimulus package will be continued to Textile sector.
The excise duty will be increased on tobaco products. The excise duty will be increase on small cars and diesel cars. The oil and Gas secor will attarct more taxes. The steel sector excise duty likely to be increased.
The Govt may allow cheaper raw material to boost the steel and cement sectors by reducing duties on coke and scrap. There could be increase of fund availability to roads, seaports-and airports. There will be a clear message on boosting the housing sector, especially for poor. The banking sector will get boost to raise capital to gear up for mega expansions of Indian corporate sector, may allow to raise foreign caiptal easily.
The customs duty will be levied on power equipment and bulk drugs especially Pencilin-G imports. The govt may allow duty free imports for 3-G equipments and wimax. The announce ment on e-governanace and UID will boost the IT companys and telecos.
On over all pro-poor, rural demand driven, market nutral slightly positive biased budget is expected.
The threats and the opportunies perceived are:
Automobile sector get effected. Banking sector will get boost, cement nutral, construction-infra- the support continues, Housing good boost, compuer education-good, the IT demand creation locally but attract more taxes, durables attract taxes, engineering sector attarct taxes/neutral, Banking and financials- boost, breverages- attract taxes, Pharma- boost to research and hopitals boost, Textiles boost to cootton but not to synthetic, teleco-demand boost, shipping boost, Agro products-retail mall culture- attract taxes, agro inputs –boost, Power-neutral petrol and gas- negative, subsidies will be reduced –good to ODC, renewable enegry will get very good boost, nuclear power kick start, fertisers –good.entertaiment attract taxes so is IPL.
Now the markets will have something to give response to budget. The Nifty above 4885-4915level will take to 5240-50 level and then to 5480+. The ICICI has to trade above 835 levels,Bharti has to trade above 298, Reliance above 1020, DLF above309. The markets are now dependant on the budgetary supports and the cut in corporate tax can trigger the Bull Run. Incase the sentiment get hurt Nifty trades below 4800-4760 the go to first 4500-4530 or even lower to 4360-80 level is not ruled out. But as of now bulls are better positioned and will in short term.
The major economic concerns now India is facing- FISCAL deficit, which is quite high. The main reason is the populist measures adopted for the last 3 years and accumilated pressure from the recent recession in the world economy, mainly from US. As we are partly celebrating the global recessionary impact, forced us to accept to stimulate the slowing down economy by pumping extra unbudgeted money into the system to float above the much debated rate of growth above 7.5-8%.
Now we are propelling our growth above the normal claims in numbers but the inflation is eating the savings. So there is no big joy to FIIs or to make call for FDIs to huge gains for the investments, so is our stock markets, performing to the tunes, is no special event at all. The inflation cutting measure may tighten the fund availability that may effect the sentiment in the stock marke as well.
With this backdrop, the FM will decide the allocation with concerns from the economists,
Socialists. The populist welfare measures as the key driving force for all the Governments, a model now globally accepted. The share sale of PSUs will be made to adjust the fiscal deficit. This will encourage some favours to some sectors and withdrawl of stimulus impacts many.
The funds allocation: as usual the defence sector will get the lions share. The Govt. will allow more private participation in defence projects. The eduction sector will open to foreign universiities. The agriculture sector will get the boost with subsidy to micro nutrients. The rural employment schemes will get 50% more hike and rural infra focus will be more. The health care will get good boost so is the corporate hospitals and pharma. The insurance sector will get good boost.
The FM very likely to reduce the surcharge on equity transactions and on corporate tax. The anomility existing to DIIs and FII s will be levelled. The implementation of the GST will be announced, may be by next fiscal. The customs duty will be increased on imported raw materials like MEG ect that benefit Reliance. The stimulus package will be continued to Textile sector.
The excise duty will be increased on tobaco products. The excise duty will be increase on small cars and diesel cars. The oil and Gas secor will attarct more taxes. The steel sector excise duty likely to be increased.
The Govt may allow cheaper raw material to boost the steel and cement sectors by reducing duties on coke and scrap. There could be increase of fund availability to roads, seaports-and airports. There will be a clear message on boosting the housing sector, especially for poor. The banking sector will get boost to raise capital to gear up for mega expansions of Indian corporate sector, may allow to raise foreign caiptal easily.
The customs duty will be levied on power equipment and bulk drugs especially Pencilin-G imports. The govt may allow duty free imports for 3-G equipments and wimax. The announce ment on e-governanace and UID will boost the IT companys and telecos.
On over all pro-poor, rural demand driven, market nutral slightly positive biased budget is expected.
The threats and the opportunies perceived are:
Automobile sector get effected. Banking sector will get boost, cement nutral, construction-infra- the support continues, Housing good boost, compuer education-good, the IT demand creation locally but attract more taxes, durables attract taxes, engineering sector attarct taxes/neutral, Banking and financials- boost, breverages- attract taxes, Pharma- boost to research and hopitals boost, Textiles boost to cootton but not to synthetic, teleco-demand boost, shipping boost, Agro products-retail mall culture- attract taxes, agro inputs –boost, Power-neutral petrol and gas- negative, subsidies will be reduced –good to ODC, renewable enegry will get very good boost, nuclear power kick start, fertisers –good.entertaiment attract taxes so is IPL.
Now the markets will have something to give response to budget. The Nifty above 4885-4915level will take to 5240-50 level and then to 5480+. The ICICI has to trade above 835 levels,Bharti has to trade above 298, Reliance above 1020, DLF above309. The markets are now dependant on the budgetary supports and the cut in corporate tax can trigger the Bull Run. Incase the sentiment get hurt Nifty trades below 4800-4760 the go to first 4500-4530 or even lower to 4360-80 level is not ruled out. But as of now bulls are better positioned and will in short term.
Monday, February 08, 2010
Correction OVER ???? or OVER correction !!!!!!!!!
The regular readers do understand that the markets corrected more than anticipated, trading even below the expected 4900 level which has now become a strong resistance to scale up. The FII are engrossing the profits made all these days in sectors that affect the most in future like banking, motors, pharma and refinery sectors that out performed and they rule the Nifty anyway.
The economy is heading for a testing time with out the stimulus package. The US economy is going to do well as the world is now recognized the social sector spending for a sustainable dignity of life. So the spending in health care and the alternative energy will through big opportunity to us.
We are now focusing on infrastructure building hand in hand with social sector spending through NREGS and other rural economy spending. The coming budget will be more rural infra and farm spending which proved a big success to our economy. So no more cuts to corporate facilities or no more favours to corporate demands. The bulging fiscal deficit will be addressed through sale of PSUs and the governing is doing business for long time. So it will help the markets to float above these levels for some time.
The concern in food inflation now crack the foundations of the markets due to more stringent actions to controle the money circulation and inflationary rise no longer desirable to emerging markets. As a whole, the markets may not have pre-budget rally due the local and the global concerns.
The deep cut is not over for the markets so long it trades below the 4830 level. The bulls were captivated in the lower band of 4950 and 4830 level. The strong cues needed to pierce the resistance to release the market from the bear grip.
The big boy Reliance has suddenly dropped its strength to move up once it dropped below 1090 level (pls. read earlier postings). Now the markets will have something to offer to bulls only when the RIL trades above 1020 level and Nifty above 4885 level. The ICICI has to trade above 835 levels, a minimum of 821-25 is required. The markets are now dependant on the budgetary supports and the cut in corporate tax can trigger the Bull Run which is possible way to encourage investments for plough back method.
The economy is heading for a testing time with out the stimulus package. The US economy is going to do well as the world is now recognized the social sector spending for a sustainable dignity of life. So the spending in health care and the alternative energy will through big opportunity to us.
We are now focusing on infrastructure building hand in hand with social sector spending through NREGS and other rural economy spending. The coming budget will be more rural infra and farm spending which proved a big success to our economy. So no more cuts to corporate facilities or no more favours to corporate demands. The bulging fiscal deficit will be addressed through sale of PSUs and the governing is doing business for long time. So it will help the markets to float above these levels for some time.
The concern in food inflation now crack the foundations of the markets due to more stringent actions to controle the money circulation and inflationary rise no longer desirable to emerging markets. As a whole, the markets may not have pre-budget rally due the local and the global concerns.
The deep cut is not over for the markets so long it trades below the 4830 level. The bulls were captivated in the lower band of 4950 and 4830 level. The strong cues needed to pierce the resistance to release the market from the bear grip.
The big boy Reliance has suddenly dropped its strength to move up once it dropped below 1090 level (pls. read earlier postings). Now the markets will have something to offer to bulls only when the RIL trades above 1020 level and Nifty above 4885 level. The ICICI has to trade above 835 levels, a minimum of 821-25 is required. The markets are now dependant on the budgetary supports and the cut in corporate tax can trigger the Bull Run which is possible way to encourage investments for plough back method.
Thursday, February 04, 2010
SHANKAR SHARMA'S VIEWS.....
The world can't have a bull run in commodities: Shankar Sharma Vivek Kaul & Sachin Mampatta / DNAThursday, February 4, 2010 3:00 IST
The big bear hates commodity bull runs because, unlike other asset classes, it impoverishes people. So they don’t last. And he continues to be bearish. The Sensex, he says, is just a two square mile phenomenon — Fort to Nariman Point. The market going up benefits 25 brokers, 200 promoters and 100 funds. Iske aage kisko fayeda ho raha hai, boss? he asks. Meet Shankar Sharma, director and chief global strategist, First Global Stock Broking. In this freewheeling interview, he spoke to DNA Money of how China is 200 years ahead of India, how India doesn’t deserve to be a Bric nation, on how the market is all about insider trading:
How do you see 2010 panning out?
Back in December 2008, my view was that in 2009 could not by any logical measure be a down-year considering that we had already lost 60% in 2008, which was unprecedented. That panned out but within that, my view always was that it was a bear-market rally and not the emergence of a new bull market and I’ll still pretty much maintain that view till I find evidence to the contrary.
But what about 2010?
My view has been that we will see a market in the first half which will be quite ugly. The first half would be a down-half and the second would be an up-half but by and large, for the year, we may not see much of a huge swing as opposed to 2007, 2008 and 2009, which have been very huge by way of volatility. I doubt if this year will be as violent as the years past because volatility cannot continue with the same intensity perennially.
What about the impact of FII flows?
I don’t believe that money flows have anything to do with the market. So I don’t subscribe to that theory that flows determine where the markets go. The rationalist in me, the mathematician in me, tells me only one thing — that dollar in is always equal to dollar out. There can never be new money coming into the market, it is arithmetically impossible.
So we chose to focus on the side of the equation that supports the market move. If the markets rally and the FIIs bought stocks worth a thousand crores, we kind of work in reverse and say that because they bought the market went up.
I say what about the guys who sold a thousand crores? For FIIs to have bought a thousand crores, somebody sold a thousand crores.
So how come we are not focusing on that side of the equation?
Because that’s not comfortable. We like to see easy patterns in things, that’s the way the human mind is. Sometimes patterns are easy and they sort of lull us into … Five days on which the FIIs bought, the markets went up so we kind of assume that that is the pattern. If you drill down, there is no pattern at all. The mind wants to seek a pattern in things that show no patterns at all. That’s the way the human mind works. We like easy theories, we like things we can tell our children. And I always say that if this was that simple, then my daughter, who is five, can be an analyst. If all that matters is that money came in, markets went up, and money went out, markets went down, then why do we need people who are educated. Then why do we need people who are educated for a pretty childish thing to analyse? Anybody can analyse it.
No flows can determine where the market is going. It’s irrelevant. The market does not know the identity of the buyer or the seller. A dollar in is equal to a dollar out. And a dollar in, irrespective of where it comes from, has the same monetary effect on the market. I can’t say that just because a foreigner is buying stock, I have to attach $1.5 of value to a $1 investment. That’s all bullshit. That’s all nice talk that people begin to talk, you know, over three drinks…
Ultimately there is no rational basis for saying these things. But in life there are a lot of things which we kind of just believe, that’s the way it is. Rationalists always debunk these theories. I belong to that camp. I believe in a lot of nonsense also but I don’t believe this nonsense.
What is the rationalist’s view of the markets?
My views are determined by 60% technical analysis and 40% by fundamentals. Money flows don’t matter, because arithmetically money flows cannot matter. Dollar in is always equal to dollar out.
I’ll tell you where it matters. It matters in a thinly traded stock. That’s where it matters, because that guy is the market. That one guy, two guys, that cartel of people they can manipulate and take up the price of a single stock, a Z-group stock. And that happens. Even as we speak, there is some stock being manipulated, that’s possible. But I am not talking about a stock, I am talking aggregate, macro, a big market. A large, liquid well-traded market. And by category emerging markets, by category global equity markets, its not possible yaar. ...............AND MUCH MORE..........
I pay much attention towards my Ph.D., hopefully on market sensitivity, econmic liberalisation and market capitalisation. So I try to publish atleast twice in a week. I hope my ardent followers appreciate.
The big bear hates commodity bull runs because, unlike other asset classes, it impoverishes people. So they don’t last. And he continues to be bearish. The Sensex, he says, is just a two square mile phenomenon — Fort to Nariman Point. The market going up benefits 25 brokers, 200 promoters and 100 funds. Iske aage kisko fayeda ho raha hai, boss? he asks. Meet Shankar Sharma, director and chief global strategist, First Global Stock Broking. In this freewheeling interview, he spoke to DNA Money of how China is 200 years ahead of India, how India doesn’t deserve to be a Bric nation, on how the market is all about insider trading:
How do you see 2010 panning out?
Back in December 2008, my view was that in 2009 could not by any logical measure be a down-year considering that we had already lost 60% in 2008, which was unprecedented. That panned out but within that, my view always was that it was a bear-market rally and not the emergence of a new bull market and I’ll still pretty much maintain that view till I find evidence to the contrary.
But what about 2010?
My view has been that we will see a market in the first half which will be quite ugly. The first half would be a down-half and the second would be an up-half but by and large, for the year, we may not see much of a huge swing as opposed to 2007, 2008 and 2009, which have been very huge by way of volatility. I doubt if this year will be as violent as the years past because volatility cannot continue with the same intensity perennially.
What about the impact of FII flows?
I don’t believe that money flows have anything to do with the market. So I don’t subscribe to that theory that flows determine where the markets go. The rationalist in me, the mathematician in me, tells me only one thing — that dollar in is always equal to dollar out. There can never be new money coming into the market, it is arithmetically impossible.
So we chose to focus on the side of the equation that supports the market move. If the markets rally and the FIIs bought stocks worth a thousand crores, we kind of work in reverse and say that because they bought the market went up.
I say what about the guys who sold a thousand crores? For FIIs to have bought a thousand crores, somebody sold a thousand crores.
So how come we are not focusing on that side of the equation?
Because that’s not comfortable. We like to see easy patterns in things, that’s the way the human mind is. Sometimes patterns are easy and they sort of lull us into … Five days on which the FIIs bought, the markets went up so we kind of assume that that is the pattern. If you drill down, there is no pattern at all. The mind wants to seek a pattern in things that show no patterns at all. That’s the way the human mind works. We like easy theories, we like things we can tell our children. And I always say that if this was that simple, then my daughter, who is five, can be an analyst. If all that matters is that money came in, markets went up, and money went out, markets went down, then why do we need people who are educated. Then why do we need people who are educated for a pretty childish thing to analyse? Anybody can analyse it.
No flows can determine where the market is going. It’s irrelevant. The market does not know the identity of the buyer or the seller. A dollar in is equal to a dollar out. And a dollar in, irrespective of where it comes from, has the same monetary effect on the market. I can’t say that just because a foreigner is buying stock, I have to attach $1.5 of value to a $1 investment. That’s all bullshit. That’s all nice talk that people begin to talk, you know, over three drinks…
Ultimately there is no rational basis for saying these things. But in life there are a lot of things which we kind of just believe, that’s the way it is. Rationalists always debunk these theories. I belong to that camp. I believe in a lot of nonsense also but I don’t believe this nonsense.
What is the rationalist’s view of the markets?
My views are determined by 60% technical analysis and 40% by fundamentals. Money flows don’t matter, because arithmetically money flows cannot matter. Dollar in is always equal to dollar out.
I’ll tell you where it matters. It matters in a thinly traded stock. That’s where it matters, because that guy is the market. That one guy, two guys, that cartel of people they can manipulate and take up the price of a single stock, a Z-group stock. And that happens. Even as we speak, there is some stock being manipulated, that’s possible. But I am not talking about a stock, I am talking aggregate, macro, a big market. A large, liquid well-traded market. And by category emerging markets, by category global equity markets, its not possible yaar. ...............AND MUCH MORE..........
I pay much attention towards my Ph.D., hopefully on market sensitivity, econmic liberalisation and market capitalisation. So I try to publish atleast twice in a week. I hope my ardent followers appreciate.
Friday, January 22, 2010
Surprise ....always.....
The quarter on quarter is not good but otherwise the ONGC performance is good. The huge investments resulted an increase of depreciation from 2860cr to 4875cs for this quarter under review and the volume catch up as the sales increased from 12436 to 15314 cr. The net profit increased from 3362 cr to 4626 crs.
The JSW steel, SASKEN presented stellar performance but IDEA disappointed by the competition. The ICICI retail banking is bleeding by 230 cr loss where as the wholesale banking and the treasury operations are very profitable, the same is the story of the YES bank. The ICICI total income is at 7763 down from 10,350 crs. There is saving on the Tax- 135cr and interest expended-1800crs. The net profit plunged from 1272cr to 1101 crs. The Stock likely to go sub 750 level.
The markets as expected lost the bottoms, plunged by 2.2%, a surprise to many by our readers noticed the developments earlier. The RIL results are expected better in line with ONGC but the polyster business needs to be observed.
The markets may get support for a temporary bounce expected from 5040 level. The melt down fro telecos and auto and Pharma will put weight/cap on the up site for sure.
The JSW steel, SASKEN presented stellar performance but IDEA disappointed by the competition. The ICICI retail banking is bleeding by 230 cr loss where as the wholesale banking and the treasury operations are very profitable, the same is the story of the YES bank. The ICICI total income is at 7763 down from 10,350 crs. There is saving on the Tax- 135cr and interest expended-1800crs. The net profit plunged from 1272cr to 1101 crs. The Stock likely to go sub 750 level.
The markets as expected lost the bottoms, plunged by 2.2%, a surprise to many by our readers noticed the developments earlier. The RIL results are expected better in line with ONGC but the polyster business needs to be observed.
The markets may get support for a temporary bounce expected from 5040 level. The melt down fro telecos and auto and Pharma will put weight/cap on the up site for sure.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Waiting ..waiting .....???
The Nifty could hold above the support level of 4180-5200 due to the IT heavy weights rotation, the propping from banking and telecos, but the Reliance once again at the cross roads at 1077, ONGC closed at 1196. The recent coal gasification project in Orissa add value to Tatasteel apart from the good expected results from the steel sector in the coming quarters due the price revisions.
In case the market fails to close above 5240 tomorrow and high doesn’t cross the resistance at 5270, there is a steep correction in the offing that could drag the indices to 4900 level irrespective the corporate results. The market operators are steadily off loading their holdings at higher level is a concern. In case the Bharti, ICICI bank and Tata steel fails to get support from these levels can be considered as a bad omen to Nifty it self.
Those whose are personally accessible to me know that I recommended to buy all cotton and textile stocks in Nov- second week, precise on 12th Nov-09. Now all the stocks be it Surya Lakshmi Cotton mills, Digjam, BSL etc all are doubled. Those who can build positions for a longer period can accumulate the Infra companies for a 5 year period for decent returns-multibaggers.
For now, incase Reliance fails to trade above 1106-09, ONGC has to cross 1205-08, ICICI has to trade above 893 can consider that the markets are heading for Southwards. The banking lot is the weakest link apart from profit booking in IT counters.
The recent run-ups in the counters of cement, IT scan find some more profit taking. The counters like Grasim may get 1st support at 2635-40 but good support and bounce can be expected at 2570.
The Infra stocks are sold out despite good results from JP is due to rise in the input costs and fear ruling in the rumors of Govt. stimulus withdrawal due to high inflation. But they are the one that will catch once the market rebounds.
In case the market fails to close above 5240 tomorrow and high doesn’t cross the resistance at 5270, there is a steep correction in the offing that could drag the indices to 4900 level irrespective the corporate results. The market operators are steadily off loading their holdings at higher level is a concern. In case the Bharti, ICICI bank and Tata steel fails to get support from these levels can be considered as a bad omen to Nifty it self.
Those whose are personally accessible to me know that I recommended to buy all cotton and textile stocks in Nov- second week, precise on 12th Nov-09. Now all the stocks be it Surya Lakshmi Cotton mills, Digjam, BSL etc all are doubled. Those who can build positions for a longer period can accumulate the Infra companies for a 5 year period for decent returns-multibaggers.
For now, incase Reliance fails to trade above 1106-09, ONGC has to cross 1205-08, ICICI has to trade above 893 can consider that the markets are heading for Southwards. The banking lot is the weakest link apart from profit booking in IT counters.
The recent run-ups in the counters of cement, IT scan find some more profit taking. The counters like Grasim may get 1st support at 2635-40 but good support and bounce can be expected at 2570.
The Infra stocks are sold out despite good results from JP is due to rise in the input costs and fear ruling in the rumors of Govt. stimulus withdrawal due to high inflation. But they are the one that will catch once the market rebounds.
Monday, January 18, 2010
The levels broken .....
The Nifty levels were not breached drastically yet but the levels of the leaders were broken seriously in FMCG, banking, …except the IT.
The ONGC though looks good, in the bull grip failed to scale up from the previous day support above 1220, but retraced to 1210 a circle juncture on Friday. The story is no different to Reliance, which expected to stay above 1125 but staggering at 1110-1105.
The Nifty is good above 5240 but now it has to trade above 5265-70 level to get the real strength and short covering of Bears above 5280 to scale to 5500 level. As of now the Nifty is in a range but likely to travel towards 5140 level or even lower due to the global meltdown and feeling heavy to cross the resistance due to lack of positive triggers.
The tech giants are giving good support to Nifty and feel good factor of the IIP numbers and the economic out look putting positive additions to numbers but the future withdrawl of stimulus, spiraling of inflation numbers and the FII inflows make the RBI to the stringent in dealing with them can give a chance to bears to hammer down the indices.
The outflows of money from the MF above 1 lakh crores in the first week of Jan-10 shows weak faith in the market for future at least for next Sep-10. I mentioned the same in my earlier posting.
The March quarter results of the majors will be impacted by the primary rise of food prices, commodity rise and lack luster performance of industry shown by the low credit off take.
The Nifty is like to trade at 16-18 of P/E by August rather than the current 23.5
The markets will correct but not collapse as it did in 2008.
The ONGC though looks good, in the bull grip failed to scale up from the previous day support above 1220, but retraced to 1210 a circle juncture on Friday. The story is no different to Reliance, which expected to stay above 1125 but staggering at 1110-1105.
The Nifty is good above 5240 but now it has to trade above 5265-70 level to get the real strength and short covering of Bears above 5280 to scale to 5500 level. As of now the Nifty is in a range but likely to travel towards 5140 level or even lower due to the global meltdown and feeling heavy to cross the resistance due to lack of positive triggers.
The tech giants are giving good support to Nifty and feel good factor of the IIP numbers and the economic out look putting positive additions to numbers but the future withdrawl of stimulus, spiraling of inflation numbers and the FII inflows make the RBI to the stringent in dealing with them can give a chance to bears to hammer down the indices.
The outflows of money from the MF above 1 lakh crores in the first week of Jan-10 shows weak faith in the market for future at least for next Sep-10. I mentioned the same in my earlier posting.
The March quarter results of the majors will be impacted by the primary rise of food prices, commodity rise and lack luster performance of industry shown by the low credit off take.
The Nifty is like to trade at 16-18 of P/E by August rather than the current 23.5
The markets will correct but not collapse as it did in 2008.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
The Infy-nite- support.....
The one of the promoters of POLARIS-Orbitech sold close to 23.88 lakh shares in the said company. I earlier mentioned about the leads given by Reliance.
In SASKEN communications, the Nortel Networks reduced the holding by selling 2.68 lakh shares but still holding 7.20 percent. In BSEL Infrastructure reality limited, 500000 shares were sold by Total Bizcon solution ltd to reduce its stake by 50% to 0.605
In a press release PunjLloyd announced that it received a power plant construction order for Rs 947 crores and the total orders at hand are more than Rs 28,300 crores as of Sep-09.
The Infosys results cheered the house and given thumps up support by 3.5% rise in the stock price. The quarterly results are good under difficult recession period, but the concern is sales has declined, the selling cost is increasing and the other income increased by 5 times and tax expenses almost doubled when compared to last year. The rupee is strengthening will impact on the margins considerably in coming quarters, unless the operational efficiencies improved along with sales will dent in the net profit can change the valuations. The early signs of the bellwether made a rat race in the remaining IT stocks.
The IT company MASTEK is also failed to improve the operational profits, reduced from 22crores to 7.9 and the sales down by more than 30% when compared to a year back.
The auto sector is in zoom speed, the Bajaj Auto produced excellent results sales increased from 2004 cr to 3165 cr and net profit increased from 164 cr to 475 cr.
The early trends of sugar company profits are rocketing in line with the per Kg domestic price rise.
In SASKEN communications, the Nortel Networks reduced the holding by selling 2.68 lakh shares but still holding 7.20 percent. In BSEL Infrastructure reality limited, 500000 shares were sold by Total Bizcon solution ltd to reduce its stake by 50% to 0.605
In a press release PunjLloyd announced that it received a power plant construction order for Rs 947 crores and the total orders at hand are more than Rs 28,300 crores as of Sep-09.
The Infosys results cheered the house and given thumps up support by 3.5% rise in the stock price. The quarterly results are good under difficult recession period, but the concern is sales has declined, the selling cost is increasing and the other income increased by 5 times and tax expenses almost doubled when compared to last year. The rupee is strengthening will impact on the margins considerably in coming quarters, unless the operational efficiencies improved along with sales will dent in the net profit can change the valuations. The early signs of the bellwether made a rat race in the remaining IT stocks.
The IT company MASTEK is also failed to improve the operational profits, reduced from 22crores to 7.9 and the sales down by more than 30% when compared to a year back.
The auto sector is in zoom speed, the Bajaj Auto produced excellent results sales increased from 2004 cr to 3165 cr and net profit increased from 164 cr to 475 cr.
The early trends of sugar company profits are rocketing in line with the per Kg domestic price rise.
Friday, January 08, 2010
The EXPORT woes..
The export based survivals like and cotton are facing the heat of Rupee strengthening. The Rupee got good strength on the future outlook of the economy and the huge dollar inflow.
The IT and the BPO sector mid caps will suffer the most as they cannot match their peers. The giants are eyes the domestic business which is opening its doors, especially to the top 5 It power houses.
The markets are gaining strength in the index due to heavy import dependant oil sector majors gaining the ground for the last 10 trading days.
The RBI heavily invested the surplus of dollars in GOLD, allowed the rupee to appreciate for some extent to balance the payment obligations.
Now the market will see correction in Pharma majors Divis, CIPLA, Ranbaxy, DrReddy, Piramals, Aurobindo and export dependant infrastructure companies like Punj Llyod and LT, some extent the Indian auto companies who are exporting considerably.
The banking sector is waiting for some cues to react. The price of ICICI falls below 850 then the market will see a major correction as anticipated. The Tata steel is facing resistance at 649-52 level will touch 614-611 incase the Nifty trades below 5250 level.
As of now the only ugly duck and lamenting for Govt. support industry- the reality sector is in bull grip may be some informed action being built in.
The odd sign is that the treasury stock sale of Reliance for Rs2500 cr and the promoter offloadings are not healthy signs, stimulus exit plans in near future may welcome bitter taste.
The Nifty is still in Bull grip so long it trades above 5240 and a serious correction for 100 points is viewed with the above said (previous postings) supports cracked.
The IT and the BPO sector mid caps will suffer the most as they cannot match their peers. The giants are eyes the domestic business which is opening its doors, especially to the top 5 It power houses.
The markets are gaining strength in the index due to heavy import dependant oil sector majors gaining the ground for the last 10 trading days.
The RBI heavily invested the surplus of dollars in GOLD, allowed the rupee to appreciate for some extent to balance the payment obligations.
Now the market will see correction in Pharma majors Divis, CIPLA, Ranbaxy, DrReddy, Piramals, Aurobindo and export dependant infrastructure companies like Punj Llyod and LT, some extent the Indian auto companies who are exporting considerably.
The banking sector is waiting for some cues to react. The price of ICICI falls below 850 then the market will see a major correction as anticipated. The Tata steel is facing resistance at 649-52 level will touch 614-611 incase the Nifty trades below 5250 level.
As of now the only ugly duck and lamenting for Govt. support industry- the reality sector is in bull grip may be some informed action being built in.
The odd sign is that the treasury stock sale of Reliance for Rs2500 cr and the promoter offloadings are not healthy signs, stimulus exit plans in near future may welcome bitter taste.
The Nifty is still in Bull grip so long it trades above 5240 and a serious correction for 100 points is viewed with the above said (previous postings) supports cracked.
Thursday, January 07, 2010
FIIs continue to buy...but
The markets are holding above 5180 can always look for a target of 5450 level, to be precise the markets are in bull grip even if the Nifty falls to a level of 4950. The Nifty is holding despite the new highs were touched. But the divergent behaviour of the Nifty stocks is not a good sign for a longer bet. The market is good for buying solong the big boy Reliance trades above 1076 level and ONGC above1205 level.
The very fact that the market is not reacting to news of Individual companies like Bharti but the poring of dollars into India has generated much interest in the market as a whole to scale to 23 month high. The big support being given by investors to the recent IPOs is a good sign, doing well in the market unlike the earlier listings.
The health care especially those are in CRAMS and biotech are being encouraged in yesterday. The reality sector majors will give good early gains for tomorrow but the market is likely to see a correction which is a healthy sign.
The DLF is good above 373 level and HDIL is good above 376 level. The Tata Motors can be shorted with a stoploss at 826 level and Tatapower may see correction to close below 1455. The metals may see some further correction generated and Sesa Goa is no exception.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FIIs infuse Rs 24,800 cr in stock markets in December quarter--- The Economic Times covered on 3 Jan 2010 about the FII interest in Indian economic growth and in our markets
…In the quarter under review, December attracted the highest inflow of Rs 10,233.1 crore($2.1 billion), followed by October (Rs 9,077 crore) and November (5,497 crore)….
…FII investment of Rs 83,420 crore in 2009 is the highest ever inflow in the country in rupee terms in a single year and comes a year after they pulled out over Rs 50,000 crore. …The inflow in 2009 broke the previous high of Rs 71,486 crore parked by foreign fund houses in domestic equities in 2007. …Interestingly, the whopping inflow by FIIs into the local stock markets has alarmed the government and other authorities concerned….
The markets are holding above 5180 can always look for a target of 5450 level, to be precise the markets are in bull grip even if the Nifty falls to a level of 4950. The Nifty is holding despite the new highs were touched. But the divergent behaviour of the Nifty stocks is not a good sign for a longer bet. The market is good for buying solong the big boy Reliance trades above 1076 level and ONGC above1205 level.
The very fact that the market is not reacting to news of Individual companies like Bharti but the poring of dollars into India has generated much interest in the market as a whole to scale to 23 month high. The big support being given by investors to the recent IPOs is a good sign, doing well in the market unlike the earlier listings.
The health care especially those are in CRAMS and biotech are being encouraged in yesterday. The reality sector majors will give good early gains for tomorrow but the market is likely to see a correction which is a healthy sign.
The DLF is good above 373 level and HDIL is good above 376 level. The Tata Motors can be shorted with a stoploss at 826 level and Tatapower may see correction to close below 1455. The metals may see some further correction generated and Sesa Goa is no exception.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FIIs infuse Rs 24,800 cr in stock markets in December quarter--- The Economic Times covered on 3 Jan 2010 about the FII interest in Indian economic growth and in our markets
…In the quarter under review, December attracted the highest inflow of Rs 10,233.1 crore($2.1 billion), followed by October (Rs 9,077 crore) and November (5,497 crore)….
…FII investment of Rs 83,420 crore in 2009 is the highest ever inflow in the country in rupee terms in a single year and comes a year after they pulled out over Rs 50,000 crore. …The inflow in 2009 broke the previous high of Rs 71,486 crore parked by foreign fund houses in domestic equities in 2007. …Interestingly, the whopping inflow by FIIs into the local stock markets has alarmed the government and other authorities concerned….
The markets are holding above 5180 can always look for a target of 5450 level, to be precise the markets are in bull grip even if the Nifty falls to a level of 4950. The Nifty is holding despite the new highs were touched. But the divergent behaviour of the Nifty stocks is not a good sign for a longer bet. The market is good for buying solong the big boy Reliance trades above 1076 level and ONGC above1205 level.
Tuesday, January 05, 2010
THE METAL RALLY
The recent rally from 4950 to 5280 - The commodity stocks are rocking the street, first the ferrous metals later followed by base metals and after some time lag the Sugar and Tea enjoyed the bulls support.
The auto sector has got tremendous investor support especially in TATAMOTORS and M&M despite the recessionary investment postponements in other sectors but not in the transport vehicles. The auto exports are increasing from India and continue to do so in future but not the prices of these stocks any longer.
The immediate prospects on banking are emerging. The stocks like SBI, ICICI and Relcap likely to catch up with market trend for sure but not at all good for holding more than two weeks....
As a matter of fact Nifty in strong bull grip but being used to off-load....wait for the future and see in the past.....
The auto sector has got tremendous investor support especially in TATAMOTORS and M&M despite the recessionary investment postponements in other sectors but not in the transport vehicles. The auto exports are increasing from India and continue to do so in future but not the prices of these stocks any longer.
The immediate prospects on banking are emerging. The stocks like SBI, ICICI and Relcap likely to catch up with market trend for sure but not at all good for holding more than two weeks....
As a matter of fact Nifty in strong bull grip but being used to off-load....wait for the future and see in the past.....
NEW YEAR- WEALTH CREATION
Wish You a Happy and Prosperous Year-2010
Now the market is likely to be range bound for this 2010 with in the range of 3660-5640 levels for Nifty.
The traders with good understanding of stock action can GAIN more than the sluggish decision makers with a view of high growth in share prices just for their holding period as a reward.
I sincerely wish you all the New Year provide prosperity and satisfaction for being in the stock market no matter the direction of journey of the market.
Now the market is likely to be range bound for this 2010 with in the range of 3660-5640 levels for Nifty.
The traders with good understanding of stock action can GAIN more than the sluggish decision makers with a view of high growth in share prices just for their holding period as a reward.
I sincerely wish you all the New Year provide prosperity and satisfaction for being in the stock market no matter the direction of journey of the market.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
The Historical levels
The Indian markets touched multi-year best gains registered after 1992 in May with meteoric rise above 28% and the world is no different in registering yearly highs in-2009. The global indices suggest that the markets are in emerging bull market with firm Bull grip.
THE YEARLY - HIGH-LOW- CURRENT CLOSING.
NIFTY 4908.80 2252.75 4448.95
SENSEX 16632.70 7697.39 14625.25
S&P-500 1404.46 666.79 919.14
US-DOW 12760.20 6440.08 8500.33
NASDAQ 2549.94 1265.52 1774.33
HANG SENG 24923.30 10676.30 18171.00
NIKKEI-225 14601.30 6994.90 9522.50
FTSE-100 6111.60 3460.70 4417.94
DAX 7124.61 3588.89 4940.82
MIBTEL 25571.00 10347.00 15743.00
CAC-40 5028.80 2465.46 3277.65
BOVESPA 73920.00 29435.00 53197.73
STRAITS TIMES 3214.64 1455.47 2329.08
The Indian markets surged above 97% from the low registered and nearly 10% lower to its yearly highs. The strength of India and the stable government at the centre boosted the investors confidence but the retail participation is well below the expectations as the wounds were yet to heal.
The mutual funds and the cash driven FIIs are jubilant to grab the opportunity to invest in India. The liquidity chase can trigger the rally but hardly seen sustaining at the highs unless the whole hearted participation from the retail investors.
Now a different situation emerged as the election results were beyond antibody's expectation killed the the traders and the retail investors are staring the surge. So the initial euphoria is well captured by the deep pockets rather than the locals, now waiting for the calmdown of the tubulance is not a bad idea rather than jumping to conclusions.
THE YEARLY - HIGH-LOW- CURRENT CLOSING.
NIFTY 4908.80 2252.75 4448.95
SENSEX 16632.70 7697.39 14625.25
S&P-500 1404.46 666.79 919.14
US-DOW 12760.20 6440.08 8500.33
NASDAQ 2549.94 1265.52 1774.33
HANG SENG 24923.30 10676.30 18171.00
NIKKEI-225 14601.30 6994.90 9522.50
FTSE-100 6111.60 3460.70 4417.94
DAX 7124.61 3588.89 4940.82
MIBTEL 25571.00 10347.00 15743.00
CAC-40 5028.80 2465.46 3277.65
BOVESPA 73920.00 29435.00 53197.73
STRAITS TIMES 3214.64 1455.47 2329.08
The Indian markets surged above 97% from the low registered and nearly 10% lower to its yearly highs. The strength of India and the stable government at the centre boosted the investors confidence but the retail participation is well below the expectations as the wounds were yet to heal.
The mutual funds and the cash driven FIIs are jubilant to grab the opportunity to invest in India. The liquidity chase can trigger the rally but hardly seen sustaining at the highs unless the whole hearted participation from the retail investors.
Now a different situation emerged as the election results were beyond antibody's expectation killed the the traders and the retail investors are staring the surge. So the initial euphoria is well captured by the deep pockets rather than the locals, now waiting for the calmdown of the tubulance is not a bad idea rather than jumping to conclusions.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
The results..?
The election results and likely re-grouping will decide the Monday direction but the move so far is in favour of the bulls. The results out come may be negative for a day or two but the markets likely to resume the up-trend as the bottom formation right from the 3080 is good, consolidated at each stage with 200 points gap up to 3510-3530 level. So the panic sell-off on speculative rise can be restricted at 3361-51 level.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: The Following scrips covered in my previous posting: The high, low, closings of 15-05-09:
NIFTY 3686.25 3597.85 3671.65
ICICI 579 542 574.70
RIL 1960 1911.65 1950.7
REL INFRA 847.7 808.35 820.20
REL CAP 598.9 575 591.55
ONGC 852.95 802.35 813.15
AXIS BANK 680 644.70 659.60
DLF 264.90 251.60 258.05
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: The Following scrips covered in my previous posting: The high, low, closings of 15-05-09:
NIFTY 3686.25 3597.85 3671.65
ICICI 579 542 574.70
RIL 1960 1911.65 1950.7
REL INFRA 847.7 808.35 820.20
REL CAP 598.9 575 591.55
ONGC 852.95 802.35 813.15
AXIS BANK 680 644.70 659.60
DLF 264.90 251.60 258.05
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Friday, May 15, 2009
Caution or Chance....?
Yester day trade gained strength from the bottom is amazing despite of the weak signals from the political front in the country and also the overseas markets. The kind of buying emerging when the market falls provides an impression that the markets are likely to touch 4000 in near future if it closes and trades above 3622 with a condition that the markets shall not touch a low of 3440 level in near future due to uncertainty emerges after the results.
To day markets are in green and the SGX is suggesting a possible positive opening at 3630-40 level. The Nifty is good above 3624 level and weak below 3580 level for today. The Nifty may face series of resistance till it consolidates above the resistance at 36654-58 level.
The Reliance is still in Bull grip so long it trades above 1850-40 level, any move above is considered as consolidation process. The scrip may today see a correction in case it fails to trade above 1940 level.
The story of ONGC is different to script as it was forced to accept the transport costs of Cairn fields in Rajastan and the losses of OMC’s placing pressure to cross the 900 mark but it is likely to face serious resistance at 868-864.
The Rel infra has made a decent up move by crossing the resistance at 803-06 level, now the crucial point stands at 796-93 level.
The ICICI Bank despite of the up move it made long with other counters but failed to cross the resistance at 339-41 level. The ADR gained 6% shall reflect in today’s trade to cross the resistance at 661-59 level came two days back but will the poll results place the hurdle?
The Axis bank which continued to attract buying support on all declines failed to do so is sending a feeler on the market condition. In case it catches up on with the rest today then there is nothing serious otherwise…?. The bottom support was at 610-06 level and the scrip shall cross the immediate resistance at 653-55 level.
The Relcap is finding difficult to trade above 575 level but found support at 540 level. The counter is facing resistance between 575-590 level.
The come back of the reality sector is heartening for investors who lost the most in the recent fall but a long way to go to cover the distance.
The DLF as suggested in my earlier postings got support at 220 level and continued to enjoy the support as bottom boundary for 21 series of trading sessions except that 190.55 touched in the stake sale on 13th May.
To day markets are in green and the SGX is suggesting a possible positive opening at 3630-40 level. The Nifty is good above 3624 level and weak below 3580 level for today. The Nifty may face series of resistance till it consolidates above the resistance at 36654-58 level.
The Reliance is still in Bull grip so long it trades above 1850-40 level, any move above is considered as consolidation process. The scrip may today see a correction in case it fails to trade above 1940 level.
The story of ONGC is different to script as it was forced to accept the transport costs of Cairn fields in Rajastan and the losses of OMC’s placing pressure to cross the 900 mark but it is likely to face serious resistance at 868-864.
The Rel infra has made a decent up move by crossing the resistance at 803-06 level, now the crucial point stands at 796-93 level.
The ICICI Bank despite of the up move it made long with other counters but failed to cross the resistance at 339-41 level. The ADR gained 6% shall reflect in today’s trade to cross the resistance at 661-59 level came two days back but will the poll results place the hurdle?
The Axis bank which continued to attract buying support on all declines failed to do so is sending a feeler on the market condition. In case it catches up on with the rest today then there is nothing serious otherwise…?. The bottom support was at 610-06 level and the scrip shall cross the immediate resistance at 653-55 level.
The Relcap is finding difficult to trade above 575 level but found support at 540 level. The counter is facing resistance between 575-590 level.
The come back of the reality sector is heartening for investors who lost the most in the recent fall but a long way to go to cover the distance.
The DLF as suggested in my earlier postings got support at 220 level and continued to enjoy the support as bottom boundary for 21 series of trading sessions except that 190.55 touched in the stake sale on 13th May.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: The Following scrips covered in my previous
posting: The high, low, closings of 14-05-09:
Nifty 3631.90 3537.60 3593.45
ICICIBANK 540.00 519.00 536.25
RIL 1927.50 1880.20 1908.95
REL infra 818.40 765.30 809.60
Relcap 574.80 541.20 568.80
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Thursday, May 14, 2009
The election effect…..
The results of the exit polls, predicting a neck to neck fight for the power between the two with third option not ruled out put selling pressure in the late evening with basket sell-off in Indian equities. The US markets also sold off last night made the Asian markets to open lower. The Nifty is likely to open below or at the verge of support at 3570 level and the opening trades shall not force it trade below 3540 level which attracts more selling.
The Nifty now has resistance at 3581-88 level and weak further below 3540 level will get support at 3492 level with minor support at 3514 level.
The RIL has resistance at 1938-42 level has support at 1869 level and the second is below crucial 1850-40 level to travel further down.
The ICICI was weak below 539-41 level likely to test 490 level in this fall but for today it will again test 520 level and 511 level.
The other stocks are in the earlier suggested levels. The India Bulls Reality will fall with a high side cap at 146 to touch a level of 133 and at 129.0 but the HDIL is in strong bull hands so long it trades above 162-64 level.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: The Following scrips covered in my yesterday posting: The high, low, closings of 13-05-09:
Nifty 3709.60 3610.20 3635.25
ICICIBANK 574.70 541.60 551.15
RIL 1975 1906.0 1933.
REL infra 825 773.60 798.0
Relcap 592.4 556.55 571.90
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
The Nifty now has resistance at 3581-88 level and weak further below 3540 level will get support at 3492 level with minor support at 3514 level.
The RIL has resistance at 1938-42 level has support at 1869 level and the second is below crucial 1850-40 level to travel further down.
The ICICI was weak below 539-41 level likely to test 490 level in this fall but for today it will again test 520 level and 511 level.
The other stocks are in the earlier suggested levels. The India Bulls Reality will fall with a high side cap at 146 to touch a level of 133 and at 129.0 but the HDIL is in strong bull hands so long it trades above 162-64 level.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: The Following scrips covered in my yesterday posting: The high, low, closings of 13-05-09:
Nifty 3709.60 3610.20 3635.25
ICICIBANK 574.70 541.60 551.15
RIL 1975 1906.0 1933.
REL infra 825 773.60 798.0
Relcap 592.4 556.55 571.90
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Buying and buying……
The markets witnessed un-precedent up move beyond expectations. The markets sensed the possible hassle free govt. formation at the centre and the foreign investments are now unabated. The stocks have become dirt cheap for them and the growth story is intact despite the poor IIP numbers contracted by 2.3% but the silver lining is that the power generation up by 6.3% and mining up by 0.4%. They are not deterred by the short-term month on month contracted numbers but focusing on overall long-term opportunity stored in as POTENTIAL.
The Asian markets are flat with negative bias. The US closed slightly in green but the NASDAQ was down by 1%. The Tata Steel plans to restructure the loan by prepayment; plans to raise 3000 crore through NCDs and plans for efficient use of Corus capacities in these turbulent times, layoffs could cross 10,000. The independent auditors will look into the books of telecos.
The RIL will repay nearly 15000 crores surplus cash flow due to the merger of RPL can save huge amount on interest. DLF wants to sell 10%, plans o raise 3850 crores through QIP route.
The Nifty is in Bull grip with yesterday move so long it trades above 3573-71 level. The immediate support for today’s trade is at 3640 level but the up side resistance is also close at 3720 level again at 3736-41 level. So a more consolidation moves on the cards.
The RIL is strong above 1894 but the resistance at 1963 and at 1981. The bull move has the potential to take it to 2040 to 2057 level.
The Rel infra has resistance at 803-06 level and become weak below 77169 level. The ICICI has resistance at 559-61 level and the second one at 576 level and the support exists at 542-44 level. The Relcap may test 583-86 level but become weak below 548 level.
The Asian markets are flat with negative bias. The US closed slightly in green but the NASDAQ was down by 1%. The Tata Steel plans to restructure the loan by prepayment; plans to raise 3000 crore through NCDs and plans for efficient use of Corus capacities in these turbulent times, layoffs could cross 10,000. The independent auditors will look into the books of telecos.
The RIL will repay nearly 15000 crores surplus cash flow due to the merger of RPL can save huge amount on interest. DLF wants to sell 10%, plans o raise 3850 crores through QIP route.
The Nifty is in Bull grip with yesterday move so long it trades above 3573-71 level. The immediate support for today’s trade is at 3640 level but the up side resistance is also close at 3720 level again at 3736-41 level. So a more consolidation moves on the cards.
The RIL is strong above 1894 but the resistance at 1963 and at 1981. The bull move has the potential to take it to 2040 to 2057 level.
The Rel infra has resistance at 803-06 level and become weak below 77169 level. The ICICI has resistance at 559-61 level and the second one at 576 level and the support exists at 542-44 level. The Relcap may test 583-86 level but become weak below 548 level.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
The unwinding pressure……..
The markets took the heat of selling pressure from the Bears as well as from the Bull unwinding in the afternoon kept the indices low but the beauty part of the yester day trade was that Nifty did not collapse despite of such sustained selling. The market absorbed comfortable the selling pressure.
The notable gainers of big name are – Tulip IT and Nucleus software, AuroPharma, JindalSAW, Havells…etc. The reality sector and the metals were worst hit.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
The Following scrips covered in my yesterday posting: The high, low, closings of 11-05-09:
Nifty 3660.2 3534.55 3554.60
ICICIBANK 547.75 513 523.35
RIL 1928 1850.1 1861.60
REL infra 792.90 746.55 763.0
DLF 244.80 226.10 228.1
T.Steel 288.80 267.20 270.65
SAIL 127.15 118.20 120.15
JP ASSOCIAT 144.70 133.30 135.50
Relcap 595 540.8 546.50
ONGC 903.80 872.50 879.7
HUL 236.50 226 227.15
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
The notable gainers of big name are – Tulip IT and Nucleus software, AuroPharma, JindalSAW, Havells…etc. The reality sector and the metals were worst hit.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
The Following scrips covered in my yesterday posting: The high, low, closings of 11-05-09:
Nifty 3660.2 3534.55 3554.60
ICICIBANK 547.75 513 523.35
RIL 1928 1850.1 1861.60
REL infra 792.90 746.55 763.0
DLF 244.80 226.10 228.1
T.Steel 288.80 267.20 270.65
SAIL 127.15 118.20 120.15
JP ASSOCIAT 144.70 133.30 135.50
Relcap 595 540.8 546.50
ONGC 903.80 872.50 879.7
HUL 236.50 226 227.15
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Monday, May 11, 2009
The crucial band……?
The counting begins this week itself even the last leg of voting is in progress. The markets will see the gyrations widely as the days running close the counting and announcement of the results. The positive news from the overseas markets could only prop up our markets but the challenge ahead of the week will be the big event of “forming the power centre with number portability” form political parties of smaller size. Now small is beautiful here for…?
The Asian market is mixed but the US performed well above 2% gains. The SGX Nifty suggesting a positive opening of 1% gains to our markets. The Nifty is close to the crucial point at 3650-60 level. The NIFTY is unlikely to hold above the 3680 level.
The Nifty is facing resistance at 3654-58 level and the support can be expected at 3571-73 and at 3541-39 level for this day.
The RIL is in the previous suggested levels. The SBI results are good despite a lower growth in the NIM but the concern for Bhat is to manage the unprecedented growth in the deposits as the Pvt. Sector bank failures in the west prompted the depositors to choose the PSU mammoth.
The SBI is good above 1375 and weak below 1347. The support exists at 1256-58 level but today it is likely to stay above 1296 level and may cross and close above the 1350 mark. In case it stays above 1350 the scrip has the potential to cross 1475 and then 1507.
The ICICI is likely to get support from SBI mood to cross the 536 mark but face resistance at 544 level.
The Relcap is good above 594 and weak below 573.
The Tata steel corus impact can be seen today. The inventory loss due to order cancellation by the consortium and the revival of the unit, fate of the employees will impact. Technically the scrip is Bull grip but the sudden developments impose pressure on the up move. So the counter may face resistance at 288 and the support is at 209-11 level once the 264 support is broken decisively.
The Govt. plans to ask ONGC to fill the loss of the OMCs may pressure this counter though the crude is ruling high above 58 dollars per barrel. So ONGC unlikely to stay above 900 mark due to this developments, even it stays not good to buy, but has good bottom support at 845-48 level and a series of reasonable supports.
The HUL bogged down by the private labels and more in future may place the stock at 202 and 194 level in future.
The Asian market is mixed but the US performed well above 2% gains. The SGX Nifty suggesting a positive opening of 1% gains to our markets. The Nifty is close to the crucial point at 3650-60 level. The NIFTY is unlikely to hold above the 3680 level.
The Nifty is facing resistance at 3654-58 level and the support can be expected at 3571-73 and at 3541-39 level for this day.
The RIL is in the previous suggested levels. The SBI results are good despite a lower growth in the NIM but the concern for Bhat is to manage the unprecedented growth in the deposits as the Pvt. Sector bank failures in the west prompted the depositors to choose the PSU mammoth.
The SBI is good above 1375 and weak below 1347. The support exists at 1256-58 level but today it is likely to stay above 1296 level and may cross and close above the 1350 mark. In case it stays above 1350 the scrip has the potential to cross 1475 and then 1507.
The ICICI is likely to get support from SBI mood to cross the 536 mark but face resistance at 544 level.
The Relcap is good above 594 and weak below 573.
The Tata steel corus impact can be seen today. The inventory loss due to order cancellation by the consortium and the revival of the unit, fate of the employees will impact. Technically the scrip is Bull grip but the sudden developments impose pressure on the up move. So the counter may face resistance at 288 and the support is at 209-11 level once the 264 support is broken decisively.
The Govt. plans to ask ONGC to fill the loss of the OMCs may pressure this counter though the crude is ruling high above 58 dollars per barrel. So ONGC unlikely to stay above 900 mark due to this developments, even it stays not good to buy, but has good bottom support at 845-48 level and a series of reasonable supports.
The HUL bogged down by the private labels and more in future may place the stock at 202 and 194 level in future.
Sunday, May 10, 2009
The pre-election rally ended..?
The strong consolidation of 3 weeks at 3332-82, Nifty took a leap to 3482 then jumped to a level of 3650 range. Nifty even touched an intraday high at 3717 level before closing the week at 3621 level. The noon-stop 9 positive weekly closing right from 6th march to day placed Nifty from 2609 to 3620 level.
The retail investors, DII and MFs who are very much cradled by the swings of 200-250 points either side at 2700. They presumed that the FII ran out of money and wanting more from the emerging markets, shorting the market at every rise and things like that kept them a side by waiting for the turn to “auspicious jump” has never happed till date but the stocks rose more than 100% from their distressed lows.
Now many started asking for a deep correction so that they can buy and hold for this kind of a rally like situation from where they can make an exit, even that won’t happen in near future. When everybody wanted to replicate the known model then how can any body “demand” for a premium?. It is as simple as that- “Not every body can afford every time to build a PALACE by each construction or even grave yards be dug every where”.
The retail investors, DII and MFs who are very much cradled by the swings of 200-250 points either side at 2700. They presumed that the FII ran out of money and wanting more from the emerging markets, shorting the market at every rise and things like that kept them a side by waiting for the turn to “auspicious jump” has never happed till date but the stocks rose more than 100% from their distressed lows.
Now many started asking for a deep correction so that they can buy and hold for this kind of a rally like situation from where they can make an exit, even that won’t happen in near future. When everybody wanted to replicate the known model then how can any body “demand” for a premium?. It is as simple as that- “Not every body can afford every time to build a PALACE by each construction or even grave yards be dug every where”.
Friday, May 08, 2009
the correction for consolidation...?
The heated markets over the week could end with tepid note with llow volumes. The stellar performance from the metal space took a beating due to profit booking from the retail investors. The Nifty has still above the support levels despite of this 64 points fall.
The shipping companies and plantation companies are in the lime light where as the software companies felt the heat.
The shipping companies and plantation companies are in the lime light where as the software companies felt the heat.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
Nifty 3711.25 3582.85 3620.70
ICICIBANK 550.9 515.15 520.75
RIL 1932 1875 1900.30
REL infra 817 756.35 768.65
DLF 525 235.65 240.65
T.Steel 302.85 280.15 282.40
SAIL 129.80 121.80 125
JP ASSOCIAT 144.35 134 142.10
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Metallic rise….
The markets rose on stellar performance from the metal space. The stocks rallied between 7 – 15% despite the steep valuation and losses of previous quarters but on the hope of demand and price correction upwards and support from anti dumping duty from GOI.
The FIIs continued to support the markets even at higher valuations. The markets are hovering around 3655 level +_ 35 points. The Nifty is weak below the crucial level suggested to get support at 3571 and lower at 3560 level.
The RIL is strong above 1880 level and weak below 1860 level to touch the 1790-60 level or even lower. The SBI is in a band of 1320-1375 level a head of results scheduled for tomorrow. The ICIC is weak below 549-51 level to touch the 503-496 level. Today it may get support at 523 and at lower levels at 518-16 level.
The Rel infra for the last 5 trading sessions in the bull grip facing resistance at 820-25 level will become weak below 803 to touch the support at 778-73 level.
The DLF engulfed in IT suit weak below 244 to touch 233-31 level and become very weak below 226 level. The JP is correcting lower levels may touch 126 level in future has very good support at 118-114 level from where the Bulls support is assured.
The heated metal may take some time to settle but the Tata steel likely to touch 336-341 level in future.
The FIIs continued to support the markets even at higher valuations. The markets are hovering around 3655 level +_ 35 points. The Nifty is weak below the crucial level suggested to get support at 3571 and lower at 3560 level.
The RIL is strong above 1880 level and weak below 1860 level to touch the 1790-60 level or even lower. The SBI is in a band of 1320-1375 level a head of results scheduled for tomorrow. The ICIC is weak below 549-51 level to touch the 503-496 level. Today it may get support at 523 and at lower levels at 518-16 level.
The Rel infra for the last 5 trading sessions in the bull grip facing resistance at 820-25 level will become weak below 803 to touch the support at 778-73 level.
The DLF engulfed in IT suit weak below 244 to touch 233-31 level and become very weak below 226 level. The JP is correcting lower levels may touch 126 level in future has very good support at 118-114 level from where the Bulls support is assured.
The heated metal may take some time to settle but the Tata steel likely to touch 336-341 level in future.
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
The FIIs pour dollars………..
The Obama administration has single point agenda to change the rules of the game to favour Protectionism from free trade. The US was reduced in its thinking to save their lots from competition. The world was rally has reached a stage from where the stock returns can be in a range. The markets in India have continued to rally at the Index level now spread to Mid & small caps. The today fall is more a correction at the large cap level than a down turn. The fall from higher level very much confined to the big ticker names be it DLF, ICICI, Relcap, HDFC, Kotak, JP associates, Tata steel, IVRCL, Indian Bank, IDFC, IDBI and other like sugar stocks.
The phenomenal rise witnessed in the mid caps like Havells ( 36%), Tulip (25%), KesoramInd and other smaller power companies. The Tata Power and R power showed their resilience to meet the on slaughter.
The Monday rise was tepid interms of volumes but the percentage of rise is good. A critical study shows that the Monday rise did not help at least 70 companies to close above the closings made on 20th April when the Nifty closed at 3371. The most under performer is the ROLTA, SKUMAR, Gitanjali gems, Bank of India, ABB, Aban and many more. On the other hand the best out performers are Mind tree, Wipro, ICICI bank, TVS motors, Pantloon and others continued rise more than 25%
The Nifty rose more than 8% from the comparison date 20th April 09. The Bank Nifty rose 9% and CNXIT rose by 15%. The heavy weight like Infosy rose by nearly 13% where as Reliance rose by 10%, Rel Infra rose by 15% and Grasim by 13%. The prominent name that are under performing are ESSAROIL,IOB,ZEEL,INDIANB,ROLTA,BOSCHLTD,BPCL,THERMAX,MARUTI
MCDOWELL-N,BANKINDIA,DIVISLAB,ASIANPAINT,ABB,ABAN,EDUCOMP,
The BEST OUT PERFORMERS BY PERCENTAGE:
HAVELLS 39.611
MINDTREE 36.212
BAJAJHIND 34.762
WIPRO 31.692
LICHSGFIN 31.397
TULIP 31.357
PENINAND 30.612
KESORAMIND 28.037
PANTALOONR 27.615
TVSMOTOR 27.103
ICICIBANK 26.583
HDIL 25.589
SUZLON 24.596
IDFC 21.862
VOLTAS 20.668
The phenomenal rise witnessed in the mid caps like Havells ( 36%), Tulip (25%), KesoramInd and other smaller power companies. The Tata Power and R power showed their resilience to meet the on slaughter.
The Monday rise was tepid interms of volumes but the percentage of rise is good. A critical study shows that the Monday rise did not help at least 70 companies to close above the closings made on 20th April when the Nifty closed at 3371. The most under performer is the ROLTA, SKUMAR, Gitanjali gems, Bank of India, ABB, Aban and many more. On the other hand the best out performers are Mind tree, Wipro, ICICI bank, TVS motors, Pantloon and others continued rise more than 25%
The Nifty rose more than 8% from the comparison date 20th April 09. The Bank Nifty rose 9% and CNXIT rose by 15%. The heavy weight like Infosy rose by nearly 13% where as Reliance rose by 10%, Rel Infra rose by 15% and Grasim by 13%. The prominent name that are under performing are ESSAROIL,IOB,ZEEL,INDIANB,ROLTA,BOSCHLTD,BPCL,THERMAX,MARUTI
MCDOWELL-N,BANKINDIA,DIVISLAB,ASIANPAINT,ABB,ABAN,EDUCOMP,
The BEST OUT PERFORMERS BY PERCENTAGE:
HAVELLS 39.611
MINDTREE 36.212
BAJAJHIND 34.762
WIPRO 31.692
LICHSGFIN 31.397
TULIP 31.357
PENINAND 30.612
KESORAMIND 28.037
PANTALOONR 27.615
TVSMOTOR 27.103
ICICIBANK 26.583
HDIL 25.589
SUZLON 24.596
IDFC 21.862
VOLTAS 20.668
Monday, May 04, 2009
The shoot out strength………
The yearly high of Nifty was at 5167.40 and the low was at 2252.75 and now today Nifty closed at 3654.0. So the non stop rise from March 6th covered a distance of 1401 points. So technically the markets are at cross roads irrespective of their Bullishness or Bearish market short covering. The rise points to low are at 0.622 and the yearly high to closing was at 1513 and the ratio stands at 0.293. The SENSEX is also displaying the same trend, the SENSEX yearly high was at 17,735.70 and the low was at 7697.3 and today the SENSEX closed at 12,134.75. The rise from low works at 4437 and the distance it has to travel 5600 points to cross the yearly high.
The markets have not yet received the ONGC and steel sector results which may disappoint. The rally is getting threat from the terrorist mails.
The SEBI is working closely to find out the insider trading in RPL by Reliance may curb the inner momentum strength as the new flow started for the Bears now.
The markets have not yet received the ONGC and steel sector results which may disappoint. The rally is getting threat from the terrorist mails.
The SEBI is working closely to find out the insider trading in RPL by Reliance may curb the inner momentum strength as the new flow started for the Bears now.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
SUSTAINED GROWTH……
The markets exhibited sustained growth without any volatile situations that normally seen on expiry day but a sustained buying at every point was exhibited. The investors across the globe providing support to stock prices as they look cheap when compared to the history highs registered.
A serious redflag caution is advised as the P/E ratio at 16.53, the forward earnings likely to deteriorate will increase it to above 20 even at the current prices. So the retail investors can wait for a substantial fall to buy the blue chips as our economy likely to contract due to lack of demand for our produts on overseas and the huge expansions initiated two to three years back now put pressure on the internal demand as the suppply is likely to exceed.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
The Following scrips covered in my previous posting:
The high, low, closings of 29-04-08:
Nifty 3486.40 3366.70 3473.95
ICICIBANK 484.50 444 479.20
RIL 1820 1745.85 1806.25
REL infra 699.25 670 695.20
Rel Cap 527.80 497.80 524.50
T.Steel 243.60 229.50 238.10
SAIL 111.85 107.30 109.20
BHARTI 758 714 752.75
ONGC 870 833.55 864.75
LT 889 852 879.35
I may be right or wrong-“No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
A serious redflag caution is advised as the P/E ratio at 16.53, the forward earnings likely to deteriorate will increase it to above 20 even at the current prices. So the retail investors can wait for a substantial fall to buy the blue chips as our economy likely to contract due to lack of demand for our produts on overseas and the huge expansions initiated two to three years back now put pressure on the internal demand as the suppply is likely to exceed.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
The Following scrips covered in my previous posting:
The high, low, closings of 29-04-08:
Nifty 3486.40 3366.70 3473.95
ICICIBANK 484.50 444 479.20
RIL 1820 1745.85 1806.25
REL infra 699.25 670 695.20
Rel Cap 527.80 497.80 524.50
T.Steel 243.60 229.50 238.10
SAIL 111.85 107.30 109.20
BHARTI 758 714 752.75
ONGC 870 833.55 864.75
LT 889 852 879.35
I may be right or wrong-“No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
The April series………..
The market roll over for may series is low due to the domestic events and due to the negative global news flows. The series may end with volatility but the markets may see some bounce back in the early trade as suggested by the SGX Nifty index.
The markets are at the verge of support as the major index heavy weights are trading below or just above the support levels in RIL, ONGC, Bharti, NTPC, ITC and HUL. On the positive side the LT, Infosys, Wipro, SBI, ICICI and HDFC bank are in Bull grip.
The Nifty as suggested in my earlier postings took support at 3350 level and this will gain strength when it trades above 3420 level. The intermediate range between 3280 and 3420 level is a consolidation range.
The earlier suggested levels hold good for RIL and ICICI. The Relcap and RelInfra lost much ground as expected and suggested. Now rel cap will be under bear pressure but can bounce to 525 level. It is very weak below 513-15 level. The Rel infra can also see a bounce back up to 693 level as suggested earlier.
The ONGC is weak below 829 and gains strength above 866-69 level. The Bharti is good above 735 can go upto 790 leve when it trades above 756-59 mild resistance level. It will become weak when the results disappoints the street may well go below support level at 686-88 level.
The LT is in Bull grip good above 896-902 level may touch 938 and 947 levels. The Sail is good still it is above 106 but likely to touch 90-93 level once it breaches due to the negative sector news. But today it will hold above 100-102 level.
The markets are at the verge of support as the major index heavy weights are trading below or just above the support levels in RIL, ONGC, Bharti, NTPC, ITC and HUL. On the positive side the LT, Infosys, Wipro, SBI, ICICI and HDFC bank are in Bull grip.
The Nifty as suggested in my earlier postings took support at 3350 level and this will gain strength when it trades above 3420 level. The intermediate range between 3280 and 3420 level is a consolidation range.
The earlier suggested levels hold good for RIL and ICICI. The Relcap and RelInfra lost much ground as expected and suggested. Now rel cap will be under bear pressure but can bounce to 525 level. It is very weak below 513-15 level. The Rel infra can also see a bounce back up to 693 level as suggested earlier.
The ONGC is weak below 829 and gains strength above 866-69 level. The Bharti is good above 735 can go upto 790 leve when it trades above 756-59 mild resistance level. It will become weak when the results disappoints the street may well go below support level at 686-88 level.
The LT is in Bull grip good above 896-902 level may touch 938 and 947 levels. The Sail is good still it is above 106 but likely to touch 90-93 level once it breaches due to the negative sector news. But today it will hold above 100-102 level.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
SWINE FLU CATCH......
The markets could have little support to hold above the 3450 level due to global melt down and due to the Expiry on Wednesday. The Infras felt the heat and the banking bowed to the bear pressure.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
The Following scrips covered in my previous posting:
The high, low, closings of 28-04-08:
Nifty 3471.95 3351.50 3362.35
ICICIBANK 470 433.05 439.05
RIL 1792 1731 1737.15
REL infra 723.90 654 661.55
Rel Cap 544.70 487.75 492.80
T.steel 257.4 232 234.35
SAIL 113.40 106.50 107.60
BHARTI 749.9 713 724.35
The high, low, closings of 27-04-08(Yesterday):
Nifty 3517.25 3435.30 3470.
ICICIBANK 477.95 411.10 467.55
RIL 1807 1761 1785.55
REL infra 1751.50 701.35 1710.85
Rel Cap 568 526.30 532.05
T.Steel 268.50 251.05 253.75
SAIL 115.70 110.10 111.90
BHARTI 756.40 730.20 743.65
I may be right or wrong-“No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
The Following scrips covered in my previous posting:
The high, low, closings of 28-04-08:
Nifty 3471.95 3351.50 3362.35
ICICIBANK 470 433.05 439.05
RIL 1792 1731 1737.15
REL infra 723.90 654 661.55
Rel Cap 544.70 487.75 492.80
T.steel 257.4 232 234.35
SAIL 113.40 106.50 107.60
BHARTI 749.9 713 724.35
The high, low, closings of 27-04-08(Yesterday):
Nifty 3517.25 3435.30 3470.
ICICIBANK 477.95 411.10 467.55
RIL 1807 1761 1785.55
REL infra 1751.50 701.35 1710.85
Rel Cap 568 526.30 532.05
T.Steel 268.50 251.05 253.75
SAIL 115.70 110.10 111.90
BHARTI 756.40 730.20 743.65
I may be right or wrong-“No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Monday, April 27, 2009
STRESSED…..
The order of the day now opening with stressed accounts and the amount related will hit the head lines as the markets are likely to witness the results and reveals from the Indian banking sector. The aggressive private sector bank ICICi has announced its numbers far below than the street expectations. The NII and the NIM are both are positive but the provisions are huge that resulting a drop of more than 35% in net profits. The stock which faced resistance at 439 level may become weak below 430, the bears run as the stock falls below 415…, 403….and the earlier supports at 495-90 may not hold as the support is expected first at 378-81 level and at 357-53 level. The stock is technically in Bulls grip. The Bulls lighten their positions in the counter when it trades below 321 level and the Bears take advantage below 315 levels.
The Asian markets are mixed and the SGX nifty suggests 40 points loss with negative bias. The Nifty is in Bull grip so long it trades above 4221-23 level, major support is at 4361-63 level but the resistance is expected at 3509-3524 level. The markets may get support at 3350 level as the upward momentum was in place. As the markets has risen in the last two trading sessions, the fall in prices still keel them in bulls grip.
The RIL could cross the immediate resistance at 1735-39 level and touched a high of 1802. Today it may face resistance at 1809-11 but gains upward momentum above 1821 level. The stock will become weak only it trades below 1693 level.
The Rel infra will face resistance at 1751-54 level and the support is expected at 684-86 level. The stock is in Bull grip above 719-21 level.
The Relcap has potential to go to 579-81 level so long it trades above 542-39 level. The stock will get support at 523 level.
The T.steel has recovered from a low of 240 level to 270 level may see some correction so is the other metals. The Sail will get Bulls support above 116.50.
The Bharti is good above 726 level but may face resistance at 767-71 level. The RCOM is good above 226 level but the support at 218-19 level and will become weak below 215 level.
The SWINE FLU is threatening to kill more as it spreads but the medicines are available.
The crucial results to be announced on Monday are from Aban, Bank Baroda, Indian bank, Oriental bank, United spirits, Tech Mahindra castrol, Areva, Bartronics, Exide Ind, and Vimta labs.
The Asian markets are mixed and the SGX nifty suggests 40 points loss with negative bias. The Nifty is in Bull grip so long it trades above 4221-23 level, major support is at 4361-63 level but the resistance is expected at 3509-3524 level. The markets may get support at 3350 level as the upward momentum was in place. As the markets has risen in the last two trading sessions, the fall in prices still keel them in bulls grip.
The RIL could cross the immediate resistance at 1735-39 level and touched a high of 1802. Today it may face resistance at 1809-11 but gains upward momentum above 1821 level. The stock will become weak only it trades below 1693 level.
The Rel infra will face resistance at 1751-54 level and the support is expected at 684-86 level. The stock is in Bull grip above 719-21 level.
The Relcap has potential to go to 579-81 level so long it trades above 542-39 level. The stock will get support at 523 level.
The T.steel has recovered from a low of 240 level to 270 level may see some correction so is the other metals. The Sail will get Bulls support above 116.50.
The Bharti is good above 726 level but may face resistance at 767-71 level. The RCOM is good above 226 level but the support at 218-19 level and will become weak below 215 level.
The SWINE FLU is threatening to kill more as it spreads but the medicines are available.
The crucial results to be announced on Monday are from Aban, Bank Baroda, Indian bank, Oriental bank, United spirits, Tech Mahindra castrol, Areva, Bartronics, Exide Ind, and Vimta labs.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
“Conspiracy”
“Conspiracy”-be it on Anil or by Saimira. The ADAG group alleges that the ill-eyed, dark hearted people jealous of the group’s progress plans to kill him. The Citi sleeps are not but the CEO Pandit lost his sleep on the plans of removal from the top post. The SEBI came out with a stringent action against the peopled involved in price manupulation by forged letters of open offer by the promoters, broker and the media persons involved in Saimira episode.
The govt. expects 40 billion dollar FDI and the growth rate above 7-8% will be visible in the second half. The Results of Cipla are good to digest where the Ranbaxy swallowed a bitter pill and hard to digest as the losses are mounting quarter on quarter. The surprise was the decline in profits of Maruti and it expects the future is not rosy.
The Major results today are from ICICI bank, Balrampur chinni, Triveni engg, Petronet Lng and other smaller companies. The Sunday poised for software company results- Mind tree, Nucleus soft and R-system to announce their results.
The govt. expects 40 billion dollar FDI and the growth rate above 7-8% will be visible in the second half. The Results of Cipla are good to digest where the Ranbaxy swallowed a bitter pill and hard to digest as the losses are mounting quarter on quarter. The surprise was the decline in profits of Maruti and it expects the future is not rosy.
The Major results today are from ICICI bank, Balrampur chinni, Triveni engg, Petronet Lng and other smaller companies. The Sunday poised for software company results- Mind tree, Nucleus soft and R-system to announce their results.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
The Following scrips covered in my morning posting:
Nifty 3491.35 3402.90 3480.75
ICICIBANK 439.40 415.10 434.10
RIL 1802.00 1727.00 1788.85
REL infra 747.00 703.40 740.50
Rel Cap 563.00 530.35 557.65
I may be right or wrong-"No argument with the ticker- NEVER".
Friday, April 24, 2009
The crucial support…..
The markets took support to bounce back from the day’s lows to close at day’s high is a clear bullish sign. The results of RIL and other major companies results shall be discounted at current levels is debatable. The internal demand for infra structure, construction and related activities were grossly stalled for want of Govt direction and the 3-G auction and other related policy decisions were put on hold will see light after the new budget. The list can be enlarged but the fact is that they store potential for sustained growth by meeting the internal demand.
The RIL results are not good on the face of it as the other income has increased considerably to 993 cr and the purchase of traded goods has increased from 590cr to 5807cr during this year. The other income and profit from exceptional items has contributed 1363 cr nearly 25% of the profits from operations. The future out look is bright due to KG basin oil & gas may hold the price and the RPL merger may add value but the upside is definitely capped for a quarter at least. The stock has very good support at 1530 level. Any dip below this is a buying opportunity as the support at 1330 level may not breach under present conditions.
The Rel Infra results are good under these difficult times. The R Power news flow is good as many projects are in pipe line, RNRL results are good. The HDFC bank results are good but it says that the NPAs may increase due to the economic slow down is a cause of concern.
The inflation was at 0.26% when compared to the last week gave good signs of relief to the RBI as it plans to induce more money into the system to spur the demand as the estimates of growth was pegged at 6% much below the regularly suggested levels of 8%-few months later7.5%- few weeks later it was at 7% and now the latest figure.
For today the Nifty has to trade above 3381 level to continue the up trend. The street reaction on RIL results hold key. The yesterday levels are for RIL, Rel Infra. As such there no serious change in the levels as they were discussed earlier. The ICICI has to face resistance at 442-39 level but the support exists at 415 level. The Relcap may face resistance at 549-51 level.
Today BEL, CIPLA,IDBI, Ranbaxy, Maruti will announce their numbers.
The RIL results are not good on the face of it as the other income has increased considerably to 993 cr and the purchase of traded goods has increased from 590cr to 5807cr during this year. The other income and profit from exceptional items has contributed 1363 cr nearly 25% of the profits from operations. The future out look is bright due to KG basin oil & gas may hold the price and the RPL merger may add value but the upside is definitely capped for a quarter at least. The stock has very good support at 1530 level. Any dip below this is a buying opportunity as the support at 1330 level may not breach under present conditions.
The Rel Infra results are good under these difficult times. The R Power news flow is good as many projects are in pipe line, RNRL results are good. The HDFC bank results are good but it says that the NPAs may increase due to the economic slow down is a cause of concern.
The inflation was at 0.26% when compared to the last week gave good signs of relief to the RBI as it plans to induce more money into the system to spur the demand as the estimates of growth was pegged at 6% much below the regularly suggested levels of 8%-few months later7.5%- few weeks later it was at 7% and now the latest figure.
For today the Nifty has to trade above 3381 level to continue the up trend. The street reaction on RIL results hold key. The yesterday levels are for RIL, Rel Infra. As such there no serious change in the levels as they were discussed earlier. The ICICI has to face resistance at 442-39 level but the support exists at 415 level. The Relcap may face resistance at 549-51 level.
Today BEL, CIPLA,IDBI, Ranbaxy, Maruti will announce their numbers.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: The Following scrips covered in my morning posting:
Nifty 3439.90 3310.5 3423.70
ICICIBANK 431.60 395.10 424.40
RIL 1774.90 1696 1763.70
REL infra 716.65 662.10 712.35
Rel Cap 535.60 496.05 531.80
DLF 240.7 222.40 238.05
HDIL 147.25 124.15 144.85
HDFCBANK 1100 1065.40 1092.50
T.STEEL 266.35 238.65 262.85
SAIL 116.40 106.50 115.10
I may be right or wrong-“No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
The crucial support…..
The markets took support to bounce back from the day’s lows to close at day’s high is a clear bullish sign. The results of RIL and other major companies results shall be discounted at current levels is debatable. The internal demand for infra structure, construction and related activities were grossly stalled for want of Govt direction and the 3-G auction and other related policy decisions were put on hold will see light after the new budget. The list can be enlarged but the fact is that they store potential for sustained growth by meeting the internal demand.
The RIL results are not good on the face of it as the other income has increased considerably to 993 cr and the purchase of traded goods has increased from 590cr to 5807cr during this year. The other income and profit from exceptional items has contributed 1363 cr nearly 25% of the profits from operations. The future out look is bright due to KG basin oil & gas may hold the price and the RPL merger may add value but the upside is definitely capped for a quarter at least. The stock has very good support at 1530 level. Any dip below this is a buying opportunity as the support at 1330 level may not breach under present conditions.
The Rel Infra results are good under these difficult times. The R Power news flow is good as many projects are in pipe line, RNRL results are good. The HDFC bank results are good but it says that the NPAs may increase due to the economic slow down is a cause of concern.
The inflation was at 0.26% when compared to the last week gave good signs of relief to the RBI as it plans to induce more money into the system to spur the demand as the estimates of growth was pegged at 6% much below the regularly suggested levels of 8%-few months later7.5%- few weeks later it was at 7% and now the latest figure.
For today the Nifty has to trade above 3381 level to continue the up trend. The street reaction on RIL results hold key. The yesterday levels are for RIL, Rel Infra. As such there no serious change in the levels as they were discussed earlier. The ICICI has to face resistance at 442-39 level but the support exists at 415 level. The Relcap may face resistance at 549-51 level.
The RIL results are not good on the face of it as the other income has increased considerably to 993 cr and the purchase of traded goods has increased from 590cr to 5807cr during this year. The other income and profit from exceptional items has contributed 1363 cr nearly 25% of the profits from operations. The future out look is bright due to KG basin oil & gas may hold the price and the RPL merger may add value but the upside is definitely capped for a quarter at least. The stock has very good support at 1530 level. Any dip below this is a buying opportunity as the support at 1330 level may not breach under present conditions.
The Rel Infra results are good under these difficult times. The R Power news flow is good as many projects are in pipe line, RNRL results are good. The HDFC bank results are good but it says that the NPAs may increase due to the economic slow down is a cause of concern.
The inflation was at 0.26% when compared to the last week gave good signs of relief to the RBI as it plans to induce more money into the system to spur the demand as the estimates of growth was pegged at 6% much below the regularly suggested levels of 8%-few months later7.5%- few weeks later it was at 7% and now the latest figure.
For today the Nifty has to trade above 3381 level to continue the up trend. The street reaction on RIL results hold key. The yesterday levels are for RIL, Rel Infra. As such there no serious change in the levels as they were discussed earlier. The ICICI has to face resistance at 442-39 level but the support exists at 415 level. The Relcap may face resistance at 549-51 level.
Today BEL, CIPLA,IDBI, Ranbaxy, Maruti will announce their numbers.
The Performance of yesterday :
Nifty 3439.90 3310.5 3423.70
ICICIBANK
431.60 395.10 424.40
RIL 1774.90 1696 1763.70
REL infra 716.65 662.10
712.35
Rel Cap 535.60 496.05 531.80
DLF 240.7 222.40 238.05
HDIL 147.25
124.15 144.85
HDFCBANK 1100 1065.40 1092.50
T.STEEL 266.35 238.65
262.85
SAIL 116.40 106.50 115.10
Thursday, April 23, 2009
The Big boy announces…
The India’s top market cap leader, index mover Reliance is going to announces is quarterly results. The markets are waiting for the RIL results and the Nifty may swing in tune with the scrip.
The top notable companies that are going to announce the results are RPL, RNRL, Rel infra, Rpower, HDFC bank, LIC housing, SKF, Idea Zee news and many more…
The Nifty is good above 3381 and weak below 3356 level. The RIL results influence the market trend. The Nifty become weak if it trades below 3320 level will likely to touch 3265 and next at 3229-31 level. The second support level will provide reasonable bounce from 3211-18 level to Nifty.
The RIL is good above 1735 and weak below 1715 may get support at1684 level, once it falls below 1665 will get support at 1615-30 range.
The banking major SBI and ICICI are facing Bear heat. The SBI is weak and good support is at 1180-65 level. The ICICI may get support from 376-79 level. This will gain strength only when it crosses the immediate resistance at 416-18.
The Relcap is exhibiting good support at 500 level and will gain strength above 521 level and weak below 511-13 level. It has bounced from the support at 491 level when it touched 495 low now holding above 500. In case it falls below 495 then the support at 472-467 level.
The HDFC bank is facing resistance at 1100 level and the support at 1040 level. The critical juncture is at 1085-1067 range.Please watch out for break-out in SAIL, RCOM, United Spirits.The reality sector major is getting support at 225 level and the HDIL at 124 level.
The top notable companies that are going to announce the results are RPL, RNRL, Rel infra, Rpower, HDFC bank, LIC housing, SKF, Idea Zee news and many more…
The Nifty is good above 3381 and weak below 3356 level. The RIL results influence the market trend. The Nifty become weak if it trades below 3320 level will likely to touch 3265 and next at 3229-31 level. The second support level will provide reasonable bounce from 3211-18 level to Nifty.
The RIL is good above 1735 and weak below 1715 may get support at1684 level, once it falls below 1665 will get support at 1615-30 range.
The banking major SBI and ICICI are facing Bear heat. The SBI is weak and good support is at 1180-65 level. The ICICI may get support from 376-79 level. This will gain strength only when it crosses the immediate resistance at 416-18.
The Relcap is exhibiting good support at 500 level and will gain strength above 521 level and weak below 511-13 level. It has bounced from the support at 491 level when it touched 495 low now holding above 500. In case it falls below 495 then the support at 472-467 level.
The HDFC bank is facing resistance at 1100 level and the support at 1040 level. The critical juncture is at 1085-1067 range.Please watch out for break-out in SAIL, RCOM, United Spirits.The reality sector major is getting support at 225 level and the HDIL at 124 level.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
The cut is developing…..
The Nifty is carrying loads of wait on long side despite of global corrections; it could keep the head above deep waters for a better sailing. The major news that dampened the sentiment is the exclusion list of 50 companies from the FO segment from June-09.
In the todays trade the tech majors did not see a deep cut but the HCL tech, NIIT, NIIT Ltd and Rolta lost the ground by10% and more. The mid cap reality sector stocks, media and software stocks that face the threat of exclusion lost nearly 10%.The metals corrected steeply, especially Tata Steel and Ster. The major up moves seen in the smaller names but the Tata Elexi, Bajaj Holdings, LIC housing, Suzlon and Wockpharma deserve worth mentioning.
The up move was capped at this juncture unless the markets get good going tomorrow above 3415-18 level. The Reliance is saving the fall, weak below 1715 level and is good above 1735 but a rally is not visible. The new in RPOWER triggered a rally in the stock but its parent company REL infra made a consolidation but it well rally only if it could stay above 693 levels. The banking stocks in anticipation of the rate cut rallied now easing on the news and may correct steeply if the SBI fails to hold above 1256 level. So tomorrow is crucial for our markets and the global news holds the key.
In the todays trade the tech majors did not see a deep cut but the HCL tech, NIIT, NIIT Ltd and Rolta lost the ground by10% and more. The mid cap reality sector stocks, media and software stocks that face the threat of exclusion lost nearly 10%.The metals corrected steeply, especially Tata Steel and Ster. The major up moves seen in the smaller names but the Tata Elexi, Bajaj Holdings, LIC housing, Suzlon and Wockpharma deserve worth mentioning.
The up move was capped at this juncture unless the markets get good going tomorrow above 3415-18 level. The Reliance is saving the fall, weak below 1715 level and is good above 1735 but a rally is not visible. The new in RPOWER triggered a rally in the stock but its parent company REL infra made a consolidation but it well rally only if it could stay above 693 levels. The banking stocks in anticipation of the rate cut rallied now easing on the news and may correct steeply if the SBI fails to hold above 1256 level. So tomorrow is crucial for our markets and the global news holds the key.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
The fall stopped….
The markets could recover due to RIL, Bharti, ONGC, HDFC, HDFC bank and DLF could place hurdles for a bear run across the board. The markets could recover in the mid session to trade in green but failed to hold the gains in the late session due to profit booking.
The Following scrips covered in my morning
posting:
ICICIBANK 416.35 391.30 398.75
RIL 1733.65 1684.70 1706.10
REL infra 689.50 662 673.85
Rel Cap 522.85 495 507
Nifty 3414.70 3309.35 3365.30
The RED spreads….
The results of TCS are good and the 1:1 bonus is not going to cheer the street as the steep sell off in the US and the Asian markets with a cut more than 3%.
The best days of AXIS banks are yet to come but the Naik resignation will have a deep cut despite the good numbers. The technology major Infosys will starts its southward journey from here to touch 1269-71 level and the bounce is expected for 1211-16.
The suggested levels in my previous posts valid and the bounce bank will happen from such levels. The Nifty will face tough resistance at 3411 level for the time being. The immediate support for today is at 3313-16 and the second support from where a serious bounce expected is at 3265-71 level. This will become a serious cut once it falls below 3250 level.
The Reliance see a deep cut below 1718-21 level and the support for this day at 1665 and at 1654-51 level.
The positive side of yesterday move of REL Infra may find support at 659-61 level and at 649-51 level, below this level serious.
The Relcap is weak below 536 and likely to go below 500 to rest at 496-93 level. The ICICI is also weak below 441-39 level and likely to touch 411 and at 403 the supports are existing but the scrip will dip below 400 and bounce is expected from 381-78 level.
The best days of AXIS banks are yet to come but the Naik resignation will have a deep cut despite the good numbers. The technology major Infosys will starts its southward journey from here to touch 1269-71 level and the bounce is expected for 1211-16.
The suggested levels in my previous posts valid and the bounce bank will happen from such levels. The Nifty will face tough resistance at 3411 level for the time being. The immediate support for today is at 3313-16 and the second support from where a serious bounce expected is at 3265-71 level. This will become a serious cut once it falls below 3250 level.
The Reliance see a deep cut below 1718-21 level and the support for this day at 1665 and at 1654-51 level.
The positive side of yesterday move of REL Infra may find support at 659-61 level and at 649-51 level, below this level serious.
The Relcap is weak below 536 and likely to go below 500 to rest at 496-93 level. The ICICI is also weak below 441-39 level and likely to touch 411 and at 403 the supports are existing but the scrip will dip below 400 and bounce is expected from 381-78 level.
Monday, April 20, 2009
The correction is good….
The correction in the markets is good for the long term investors. The rally was sharp and very few could venture to grab the opportunity. The world economic situation has not improved but the hope that could build on the extreme pessimism when Dow touched the 25 year low below 700 levels. Now such an extreme situation could suddenly emerge as a rally over that lasted for more than 6 consecutive weeks to create a history in US that was not happened in the past 60 years. The strength of extremism of pessimism made a Bear trap and now it can be gauzed with this heavy short covering lead Bull grip over the markets across the globe.
The cool off signs are emerging in all the markets and they are now enjoying the vacation at higher level as consolidation. So our Nifty could again touch 3080-3020 level due to our domestic issues. The confusion over the new government formation gets accelerated as the “third front” will emerge from political turbulence as the polling phases get closer to end by May second week. The tussle for the premier hot seat, the FM Budget and June end quarterly results will clearly provide the right direction to our markets.
For today, the Nifty is strong so long as it trades above 3360 level. The Bulls will gain strength above 3426-35 level but will yield to selling pressure incase Nifty fails to cross 3411-09 initial resistance. The high volatility may reduce and may get support at 3313-11 level, the second support will be at 3280-88 level. The Asian markets are flat with negative bias.
The counters that lost the charm are The RIL and ONGC. The RIL is weak below 1730 and face serious resistance at 1757-1751 level. The RIL will get support at 1665-67.
The ICICI bank is strong above 444-45 level but will become weak below 435 to touch 419-22 support level.
The Rel cap now facing bear pressure gets resistance at 551-49 range and likely to touch 480-475 range. For today it may get support at 491-93 level.
The SBI is showing good support at bottom till yesterday evening failed to hold the ground above 1306-09 level may get support at 1259-56 if it fails trade to trade above 1320 level.
The Rel Infra face resistance at 685-83 level and may find support at 621-23 once it trades below 659-61 level.
The DLF received a series of bottom support at 222-226 level for 4 trading sessions may once again get support.
The cool off signs are emerging in all the markets and they are now enjoying the vacation at higher level as consolidation. So our Nifty could again touch 3080-3020 level due to our domestic issues. The confusion over the new government formation gets accelerated as the “third front” will emerge from political turbulence as the polling phases get closer to end by May second week. The tussle for the premier hot seat, the FM Budget and June end quarterly results will clearly provide the right direction to our markets.
For today, the Nifty is strong so long as it trades above 3360 level. The Bulls will gain strength above 3426-35 level but will yield to selling pressure incase Nifty fails to cross 3411-09 initial resistance. The high volatility may reduce and may get support at 3313-11 level, the second support will be at 3280-88 level. The Asian markets are flat with negative bias.
The counters that lost the charm are The RIL and ONGC. The RIL is weak below 1730 and face serious resistance at 1757-1751 level. The RIL will get support at 1665-67.
The ICICI bank is strong above 444-45 level but will become weak below 435 to touch 419-22 support level.
The Rel cap now facing bear pressure gets resistance at 551-49 range and likely to touch 480-475 range. For today it may get support at 491-93 level.
The SBI is showing good support at bottom till yesterday evening failed to hold the ground above 1306-09 level may get support at 1259-56 if it fails trade to trade above 1320 level.
The Rel Infra face resistance at 685-83 level and may find support at 621-23 once it trades below 659-61 level.
The DLF received a series of bottom support at 222-226 level for 4 trading sessions may once again get support.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Now the time to wait……
The markets are under bull grip with out any doubt. People find different jargons to situations but the ultimate goal in market participation is to make money. The serious investor or the trend follower simple finds way to adjust in the right slot to take the pie worth deserving.
The strength of markets at the bottom and the building process was so excellent that the advancement was like creeping. The retail investors were skeptical to participate in the pessimistic environment. This provided a god sent opportunity to Bull operators to scale to touch new highs. The history is writing on the wall.
The Nifty rallied from 2539 on 6th March to 3511 on 16th April, in 24 trading sessions it rallied nearly 970 points with out any serious set backs.
The fall on 30the was really serious to cover but covered in style to trap the bears. The front line stocks like REL Infra, Rel cap, SBI, Axis bank, RIL LT and many more rose by 50% as the short sellers were seriously trapped. The classic example of retail short covering at the fag end of the day on “Infosys results-15th April” triggered rallyand effortlessly stocks fell on the next day itself.
Now the challenge is to find out the emerging trend. There some stocks that emerged as Bullish in the last 3-4 tradings and the earlier front runners taking a pause in the run up. The stocks like HUL, ITC, Wipro, LT, SBI, Axis bank and to some extent Bharti are exhibiting bullishness.
The RIL, ONGC, GAIL, Rel Infra, R-power, NTPC, DLF, HDIL, T motors, TCS, United spirits and metal majors seems to be buckle to bear pressure.
The short covering stretch can be observed in BHEL, Maruti, T-power and in United Spirits.
The strength of markets at the bottom and the building process was so excellent that the advancement was like creeping. The retail investors were skeptical to participate in the pessimistic environment. This provided a god sent opportunity to Bull operators to scale to touch new highs. The history is writing on the wall.
The Nifty rallied from 2539 on 6th March to 3511 on 16th April, in 24 trading sessions it rallied nearly 970 points with out any serious set backs.
The fall on 30the was really serious to cover but covered in style to trap the bears. The front line stocks like REL Infra, Rel cap, SBI, Axis bank, RIL LT and many more rose by 50% as the short sellers were seriously trapped. The classic example of retail short covering at the fag end of the day on “Infosys results-15th April” triggered rallyand effortlessly stocks fell on the next day itself.
Now the challenge is to find out the emerging trend. There some stocks that emerged as Bullish in the last 3-4 tradings and the earlier front runners taking a pause in the run up. The stocks like HUL, ITC, Wipro, LT, SBI, Axis bank and to some extent Bharti are exhibiting bullishness.
The RIL, ONGC, GAIL, Rel Infra, R-power, NTPC, DLF, HDIL, T motors, TCS, United spirits and metal majors seems to be buckle to bear pressure.
The short covering stretch can be observed in BHEL, Maruti, T-power and in United Spirits.
Thursday, April 09, 2009
Spectacular grip……
The Bulls hold the spectacular grip over the markets and saved the day with de-coupling with the rest of the world. The journey calculators went on counting the points added from the low to the highest but the markets interested to make a new high each time and every time for the last one month.
The correction happened only one day and the rest is internal and intraday. The side lined waiting money woke-up and starts chasing the stocks for now as if we are in a run-up Bull market. The RIIL has again made a 40% gain and the sugar stocks rallied by 15-20%.
The SGX Nifty suggests that the Asian markets are in green with Hang Sang by 1.35% and the Nikkei up by 1.8% and we are likely to open above 3400 with 50-60 points gap up. As suggested in my earlier the Nifty will take a breather here (………The Nifty could be expected to touch 3381-4408 in coming days as the momentum is well in place. The fag end of the run will be fast and surprising.)
The Nifty has good support at 3050 level and very good support at 2960-50 level. The markets rallied enough to cross the hurdles at 3135 and 3280 level. So the fall will become weak and bearish only when Nifty trades below 3000 level. The corrections will be stock specific and the overall markets are in higher orbit.
The Nifty has resistance at 3423 level and the support at 3311-09 and at 3273-71 level.
The Reliance rallied yesterday beyond expectation 1763 and the selling may come at 1787 level. The bottom support will come for today at 1706 and at 1695-91 level. The counter will become weak below 1693 level.
The bear hug counters like BHEL will become very weak below 1495 and it will get short covering if at all only above 1540 level. The other weak counter is Bharti will become weak below 620 level is facing resistance at 670 level. India bulls realest may see some selling pressure above 137-39 level and Rolta will face resistance to cross Rs75-77.
The counters like ICICI which went up on low activity may run up to 393 and to 403-06 level so long it trades above 373 level. It will become weak below 368 level.
The Rel Infra is good above 616 to touch 660 level but will become weak below 603 level. In case the stock shall not trades below 593 will see selling pressure from short sellers and the bull un-winding will accelerate for every 5 rupee fall.
The correction happened only one day and the rest is internal and intraday. The side lined waiting money woke-up and starts chasing the stocks for now as if we are in a run-up Bull market. The RIIL has again made a 40% gain and the sugar stocks rallied by 15-20%.
The SGX Nifty suggests that the Asian markets are in green with Hang Sang by 1.35% and the Nikkei up by 1.8% and we are likely to open above 3400 with 50-60 points gap up. As suggested in my earlier the Nifty will take a breather here (………The Nifty could be expected to touch 3381-4408 in coming days as the momentum is well in place. The fag end of the run will be fast and surprising.)
The Nifty has good support at 3050 level and very good support at 2960-50 level. The markets rallied enough to cross the hurdles at 3135 and 3280 level. So the fall will become weak and bearish only when Nifty trades below 3000 level. The corrections will be stock specific and the overall markets are in higher orbit.
The Nifty has resistance at 3423 level and the support at 3311-09 and at 3273-71 level.
The Reliance rallied yesterday beyond expectation 1763 and the selling may come at 1787 level. The bottom support will come for today at 1706 and at 1695-91 level. The counter will become weak below 1693 level.
The bear hug counters like BHEL will become very weak below 1495 and it will get short covering if at all only above 1540 level. The other weak counter is Bharti will become weak below 620 level is facing resistance at 670 level. India bulls realest may see some selling pressure above 137-39 level and Rolta will face resistance to cross Rs75-77.
The counters like ICICI which went up on low activity may run up to 393 and to 403-06 level so long it trades above 373 level. It will become weak below 368 level.
The Rel Infra is good above 616 to touch 660 level but will become weak below 603 level. In case the stock shall not trades below 593 will see selling pressure from short sellers and the bull un-winding will accelerate for every 5 rupee fall.
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
Correction in the momentum…..?
The markets across the globe are taking a breather in the Bull run initiated 4-weeks back. The Indian markets displayed the much required strength against the bad times when US falling to touch its 25 year lows and participated in the bounce back. Now the real testing time to our markets whether we could de-couple and rise or not?.
The SGXNifty suggests that the Nifty could see a cut of nearly 90 points in the opening. The Asian markets were down and Yester day holiday saved our cut but today Bears exert more pressure on the Bulls to hold the ground above 3150 level. The early morning support may come at 3130 level but the Nifty has support at 3080.
The RIL has the initial support at 1617-23 level and may touch 1594-91 level to bounce sharply above the first support level.
The HDFC the star performer may loose some strength but it is in the Bull grip so long it trades above 1609-1620 has the potential to touch 1945-60 level.
The much roller coaster rider with great swings either side happened on Monday in Rel Infra may yield to selling pressure; get support at 676-73 level and at 666 level. The scrip will rally to 669 level once it trades above 593 after this correction which may trap the bears by touching 532-526 level.
The best out-performers of the recent rally- LT has good support at 720-16 level and get very good support at 701-03 level, the RCOM will get support at 186-188 level, the Bharti is in Bull grip sol long it trade above 617-21 level.
The metal may correct sharply. The Sail likely to touch 93 level, The Tata steel may touch 206-09 level and the Sterlite may touch 345-43 level.
The correction will check the journey when the SBI reaches 1025-35 range, Relcap touches 369-73 range and the ICICI touches 329-324 range.
The SGXNifty suggests that the Nifty could see a cut of nearly 90 points in the opening. The Asian markets were down and Yester day holiday saved our cut but today Bears exert more pressure on the Bulls to hold the ground above 3150 level. The early morning support may come at 3130 level but the Nifty has support at 3080.
The RIL has the initial support at 1617-23 level and may touch 1594-91 level to bounce sharply above the first support level.
The HDFC the star performer may loose some strength but it is in the Bull grip so long it trades above 1609-1620 has the potential to touch 1945-60 level.
The much roller coaster rider with great swings either side happened on Monday in Rel Infra may yield to selling pressure; get support at 676-73 level and at 666 level. The scrip will rally to 669 level once it trades above 593 after this correction which may trap the bears by touching 532-526 level.
The best out-performers of the recent rally- LT has good support at 720-16 level and get very good support at 701-03 level, the RCOM will get support at 186-188 level, the Bharti is in Bull grip sol long it trade above 617-21 level.
The metal may correct sharply. The Sail likely to touch 93 level, The Tata steel may touch 206-09 level and the Sterlite may touch 345-43 level.
The correction will check the journey when the SBI reaches 1025-35 range, Relcap touches 369-73 range and the ICICI touches 329-324 range.
Tuesday, April 07, 2009
The strength displayed…..
The markets showed their positive strength on the back of Asian markets rally. The opening was so bullish but failed to hold on the gains due to the weakness in RIL, SBI, HUL and ITC but closed in positive territory with the help from RCOM, Bharti, LT, HDFC and HDFC bank.
The mid-cap rally is phenomenon be it ESSAR OIL BY 50%, RIIL BY
40%, GITANJALI BY 25%, MRPL & CHENNAI PETRO rose close to 20%. The rally is very sharp and interesting to complete the cycle to squeeze the retail short sellers in the market. These moves will threaten the other dare devils to think of selling in the market even though their calling is right. These pre-empting techniques are useful to the market movers/operators to manage their stocks to their tunes.
The market leader RIL seems exhausted, this can be confirmed when the Reliance fails to trade above 1693 level as the Reliance high made Monday at Rs1742/- is a clear indication of capping at the top. The correction may lead the stock to touch support at 1535-45 range.
The Nifty has first support at 3109-18 level and the second support at 3020-26 level. The Nifty will become weak only when it trades below the second support level. The consequent 3 day lows at 2962-66 level any way come to rescue the Bulls even a deep correction is un-warranted.
The Banking lot will correct sharply by more than 20% in this fall but the resilience to bounce is still inherent.
The mid-cap rally is phenomenon be it ESSAR OIL BY 50%, RIIL BY
40%, GITANJALI BY 25%, MRPL & CHENNAI PETRO rose close to 20%. The rally is very sharp and interesting to complete the cycle to squeeze the retail short sellers in the market. These moves will threaten the other dare devils to think of selling in the market even though their calling is right. These pre-empting techniques are useful to the market movers/operators to manage their stocks to their tunes.
The market leader RIL seems exhausted, this can be confirmed when the Reliance fails to trade above 1693 level as the Reliance high made Monday at Rs1742/- is a clear indication of capping at the top. The correction may lead the stock to touch support at 1535-45 range.
The Nifty has first support at 3109-18 level and the second support at 3020-26 level. The Nifty will become weak only when it trades below the second support level. The consequent 3 day lows at 2962-66 level any way come to rescue the Bulls even a deep correction is un-warranted.
The Banking lot will correct sharply by more than 20% in this fall but the resilience to bounce is still inherent.
Monday, April 06, 2009
The Asian surge….
The Asian markets are trading in green with a positive move up wards by 2.5-3.5% but with an exception of Shanghai Composite in red. The markets are filled with josh that could lead this rally further as the negative data coming is not surprising to the markets as it is used to live with.
The SGX Nifty is suggesting that the Nifty is well above the resistance level at 4265-80 level and currently trading at 4335 with low as 4265. So the markets shall run on its course as the Bulls are hungry for more. The Nifty could be expected to touch 3381-4408 in coming days as the momentum is well in place. The fag end of the run will be fast and surprising.
The good policy is to avoid fresh entry at this level. The Nifty likely to get support at 2935-65 level while coming down can be an etry point. The Nifty built this empire with a classic bottom building process at 2565 level for 3-days and 2740-2773 for 3-days and 2962-66 for 3 consequent days. So even by simple averaging theory suggests that the market has good support at 2775 level.
The Reliance was the first to move the Index has resistance at 1848 level and good support existed at 1535-15 level. The Rel-infra has the potential to touch 609-11 level and likely to touch 669-73 level in coming days so long it stays above 551-53 level.
The Banking giant though lagging the run but has potential to touch 1320 level if it stays above 1060-65 level. The ICICI bank is the most battered stock even in the recent bull-run is running in line with others but with great exhaustion may face resistance at 393 level but can be expected to touch 416-21 level. The stocks like NTPC, HDFC, HUL, Axis Bank and Bharti are becoming hot favourites for Shorting.
The SGX Nifty is suggesting that the Nifty is well above the resistance level at 4265-80 level and currently trading at 4335 with low as 4265. So the markets shall run on its course as the Bulls are hungry for more. The Nifty could be expected to touch 3381-4408 in coming days as the momentum is well in place. The fag end of the run will be fast and surprising.
The good policy is to avoid fresh entry at this level. The Nifty likely to get support at 2935-65 level while coming down can be an etry point. The Nifty built this empire with a classic bottom building process at 2565 level for 3-days and 2740-2773 for 3-days and 2962-66 for 3 consequent days. So even by simple averaging theory suggests that the market has good support at 2775 level.
The Reliance was the first to move the Index has resistance at 1848 level and good support existed at 1535-15 level. The Rel-infra has the potential to touch 609-11 level and likely to touch 669-73 level in coming days so long it stays above 551-53 level.
The Banking giant though lagging the run but has potential to touch 1320 level if it stays above 1060-65 level. The ICICI bank is the most battered stock even in the recent bull-run is running in line with others but with great exhaustion may face resistance at 393 level but can be expected to touch 416-21 level. The stocks like NTPC, HDFC, HUL, Axis Bank and Bharti are becoming hot favourites for Shorting.
Sunday, April 05, 2009
The Rally reached………….
The markets enjoyed the rally despite of all economic bad news and demand contraction at home but on US markets. The global markets were enthused by the US rally because every else country is in a better position the worst effected. Now the news headlines carrying the 17 month old recession is now taking efforts to rise from the lows. The same thing has reflected in their indices.
The dependant emerging markets (third world) countries will now feel the heat as there could be some time lag to face the challenges. Now the real testing times a head to our Indian corporate houses to overcome both the demand contraction at home and shrinking margin abroad. The US will place many restrictions to save their economy and the exporters will face the margin pressure as the Rupee already reached a level. So every 1% of rupee strengthens place the exporters at very disadvantage position. The plant shut downs of the new offshore acquisitions will squeeze the top corporate houses and the interest burden will erode the little earnings made. Now the future for Indian corporate houses is very challenging and so is their market cap.
The Nifty has cross the earlier resistance at 2860 level with ease as it could absorb the selling pressure at 2550-2630 level while the US is testing the Multi-year lows at DOW and NASDAQ. The rally is sharp and the openings wee also above 60-100 points on Nifty at the 3000 level to 3200 level shows the squeeze faced by the short sellers who expected the Nifty to follow US in down turn. This could propel the short covering above 3080 level to test the 3229 level. So is the case with Bank Nifty from 3320 to 4425 level. The stocks gained more than 40 to 80% from their lows in this 700 points Nifty rally triggered on first week end of March to date. The first quarter results and the predictions of the strength of the Third Front will carry the tunes to the market. As of now the Nifty may face resistance at 3280 level and may correct sharply.
The dependant emerging markets (third world) countries will now feel the heat as there could be some time lag to face the challenges. Now the real testing times a head to our Indian corporate houses to overcome both the demand contraction at home and shrinking margin abroad. The US will place many restrictions to save their economy and the exporters will face the margin pressure as the Rupee already reached a level. So every 1% of rupee strengthens place the exporters at very disadvantage position. The plant shut downs of the new offshore acquisitions will squeeze the top corporate houses and the interest burden will erode the little earnings made. Now the future for Indian corporate houses is very challenging and so is their market cap.
The Nifty has cross the earlier resistance at 2860 level with ease as it could absorb the selling pressure at 2550-2630 level while the US is testing the Multi-year lows at DOW and NASDAQ. The rally is sharp and the openings wee also above 60-100 points on Nifty at the 3000 level to 3200 level shows the squeeze faced by the short sellers who expected the Nifty to follow US in down turn. This could propel the short covering above 3080 level to test the 3229 level. So is the case with Bank Nifty from 3320 to 4425 level. The stocks gained more than 40 to 80% from their lows in this 700 points Nifty rally triggered on first week end of March to date. The first quarter results and the predictions of the strength of the Third Front will carry the tunes to the market. As of now the Nifty may face resistance at 3280 level and may correct sharply.
Sunday, March 08, 2009
how far is .....
The extreme side of the market direction from a high of 6357 is the depth of fall one is expecting to stop and at an early date. The effort is to understand and analyse the swings......
The critical analysis shows that the markets are in tail spin fall to a dismal low of 2253.75 on 27-10-2008 from a high of 6357 on 08-01-2009.
The All-time High: 6357 and the All-time Low: 2253
The high to fall 6357 to 4448.50 low registered on 22-01-08 in 10 trading sessions with a fall of 1890 points is the begining........
HIGH : DATE LOW: DATE
6357.00 08-01-08 4448.50 22-01-08
5391.60 29-01-08 5071.15 31-01-08
5545.20 04-02-08 4803.60 11-02-08
5368.45 19-02-08 4620.50 10-03-08
5019.20 12-03-08 4468.55 18-06-08
4970.80 28-03-08 4628.75 16-04-08
5298.95 02-05-08 4913.80 12-05-08
5167.40 16-05-07 4536.25 05-06-08
4626.45 09-06-08 4369.80 10-05-06
4679.75 18-06-08 4093.20 25-06-08
4324.75 26-06-08 3848.25 02-07-08
4114.50 07-07-08 3896.05 08-07-08
4215.50 11-07-08 3790.20 16-07-08
4539.45 24-07-08 4159.15 29-07-08
4615.90 06-08-08 4464.00 08-08-08
4649.45 12-08-09 4248.00 22-08-08
4398.80 25-08-08 4201.85 28-11-08
4522.40 02-09-08 4328.90 05-09-08
4558.00 08-09-08 3919.35 16-09-08
4303.25 22-09-08 3715.05 30-09-08
4000.50 01-10-08 3198.95 10-10-08
3648.25 14-10-08 3046.60 17-10-08
3254.85 21-10-08 2252.75 27-10-08
3240.55 05-11-08 2502.90 20-11-09
2832.85 01-12-08 2570.70 02-12-08
3110.45 22-12-08 2701.75 15-01-09
2868.20 19-01-09 2661.75 23-01-09
2969.75 13-02-09 2539.45 06-03-09
The critical analysis shows that the markets are in tail spin fall to a dismal low of 2253.75 on 27-10-2008 from a high of 6357 on 08-01-2009.
The All-time High: 6357 and the All-time Low: 2253
The high to fall 6357 to 4448.50 low registered on 22-01-08 in 10 trading sessions with a fall of 1890 points is the begining........
HIGH : DATE LOW: DATE
6357.00 08-01-08 4448.50 22-01-08
5391.60 29-01-08 5071.15 31-01-08
5545.20 04-02-08 4803.60 11-02-08
5368.45 19-02-08 4620.50 10-03-08
5019.20 12-03-08 4468.55 18-06-08
4970.80 28-03-08 4628.75 16-04-08
5298.95 02-05-08 4913.80 12-05-08
5167.40 16-05-07 4536.25 05-06-08
4626.45 09-06-08 4369.80 10-05-06
4679.75 18-06-08 4093.20 25-06-08
4324.75 26-06-08 3848.25 02-07-08
4114.50 07-07-08 3896.05 08-07-08
4215.50 11-07-08 3790.20 16-07-08
4539.45 24-07-08 4159.15 29-07-08
4615.90 06-08-08 4464.00 08-08-08
4649.45 12-08-09 4248.00 22-08-08
4398.80 25-08-08 4201.85 28-11-08
4522.40 02-09-08 4328.90 05-09-08
4558.00 08-09-08 3919.35 16-09-08
4303.25 22-09-08 3715.05 30-09-08
4000.50 01-10-08 3198.95 10-10-08
3648.25 14-10-08 3046.60 17-10-08
3254.85 21-10-08 2252.75 27-10-08
3240.55 05-11-08 2502.90 20-11-09
2832.85 01-12-08 2570.70 02-12-08
3110.45 22-12-08 2701.75 15-01-09
2868.20 19-01-09 2661.75 23-01-09
2969.75 13-02-09 2539.45 06-03-09
Thursday, March 05, 2009
SENSEX below 3 year low…
The regular readers might have understood the supports and resistance levels and how they works. The Nifty is still a out-performer when it compared with the rest but the outflow of money due to the global giant financial institutions crumbling performance cast a shadow on our banking sector and on markets.The SENSEX is below 3 year low, where as the inflation was at 2002
levels.
In my earlier post it was mentioned the Reliance levels and the ONGC today the RIL high at 1220 and low at 1142 level and the ONGC took support at 637 . The Nifty took support at 2564 but it did not tried to cross the 2680 at time.
Now the markets are under severe selling pressure that to delivery based selling by institutions forcing the markets down. The Asian markets are ok and the yesterday cue from Europe and US also good but we did not follow them just because now a days we are a head of them…leading them.
Wednesday, March 04, 2009
Against all odds.......
The 12 year low of DOW in US and the free fall in Europe due to the financial sector fall out did not effected Nifty but forced mourning was inevitable to express and act in line with them. The markets took all pains to stay above 2700 despite of meltdown in US and other European markets for some time and till yester day the lower supports were protected at 2650 level.
The Nifty now has to trade above 2740 level to avoid the debacle. In my earlier posting clearly mentioned the momentum loss in heavy weight despite the Nifty moving up to cross the 2930 hurdle. The RIL, ONGC and NTPC managed the show.
The challenge now is to see the quick recovery from the lows. The Nifty has to move above 2680 level to absorb the selling pressure without violating the immediate support at 2550. The RIL suddenly crumbled in late hour of trade below 1220 to touch a low of 1175 is the cause of concern.
The Asian markets are in green especially the China and the recovery in US failed to hold till closing in US is not a good sign. The SGX Nifty suggests a flat opening, today the Nifty may face resistance at 2741-43 level may get support at 2584-79 level and next at 2550 level. The Reliance may face resistance at 1221-1218 level and will become weak below 1191 level may get support at 1146-51 level. The ONGC may face resistance at 663-66 level may get support at 642-39 level.
The severely beaten Rel Infra may face resistance at 451 level may get support at 426 level and next at 421 level, in case it fails to cross the 441 it may test 401-396 level in next two days.
The ICICI may face resistance at 311-08 level may get support at 281and level two support may emerge at 373. The Relcap may face resistance at 331-33 level.
In my earlier posting suggested that the Bharti may see steep fall if it trades below 639 support level touched 594.
The Nifty now has to trade above 2740 level to avoid the debacle. In my earlier posting clearly mentioned the momentum loss in heavy weight despite the Nifty moving up to cross the 2930 hurdle. The RIL, ONGC and NTPC managed the show.
The challenge now is to see the quick recovery from the lows. The Nifty has to move above 2680 level to absorb the selling pressure without violating the immediate support at 2550. The RIL suddenly crumbled in late hour of trade below 1220 to touch a low of 1175 is the cause of concern.
The Asian markets are in green especially the China and the recovery in US failed to hold till closing in US is not a good sign. The SGX Nifty suggests a flat opening, today the Nifty may face resistance at 2741-43 level may get support at 2584-79 level and next at 2550 level. The Reliance may face resistance at 1221-1218 level and will become weak below 1191 level may get support at 1146-51 level. The ONGC may face resistance at 663-66 level may get support at 642-39 level.
The severely beaten Rel Infra may face resistance at 451 level may get support at 426 level and next at 421 level, in case it fails to cross the 441 it may test 401-396 level in next two days.
The ICICI may face resistance at 311-08 level may get support at 281and level two support may emerge at 373. The Relcap may face resistance at 331-33 level.
In my earlier posting suggested that the Bharti may see steep fall if it trades below 639 support level touched 594.
Friday, February 20, 2009
The US falls out….
The markets across the globe are in a queue to accept the US markets decision as DOW falls to 6-year lows. The Nifty is holding above 2735 could be a challenge as the global concern has worsen than expected. The Nifty at home was down by Budget sentiment and followed by the US concern could hold for two days above 2750. The recovery in RIL is very important as the Banking sector lost more than 15% in some stocks and around 10% in most of the heavy weights despite the expectation of rate cut on the cards.
The stocks like GE shipping moved up from 187 to 225 levels now back to square. The ICICI from 360 levels to 440 levels now back to 360 levels. The effort made to move was used to exit is the main problem in the markets. The HNIs, MFs and FIIs have little conviction that the world economy will recover soon so is the Indian economy.
The Nifty is good above 2803 as Reliance good above 1306. The markets today may not hold above 2780 level cold test 2704 level first and the better support exists at 2680 level. The volumes were dried up and the trading has been confined to limited stocks with high degree of volatility based on news/expectations.
Today Nifty may face resistance at 2793 level may get support at 2724-29 level and next at 2703-05 level. The Reliance may face resistance at 1301-1298 level and will become weak below 1281 level may get support at 1246 level and next at 1238 level. The ONGC may face resistance at 683-86 level may get support at 662 level and next at 651-53 level. The Rel Infra may face resistance at 516 level may get support at 486 level and next at 473-71 level where the recent bottom support exists.
The ICICI may face resistance at 373-75 level may get support at 341-42level. The Relcap may face resistance at 381-83 level may get support at 359-57 level. The Bharti which built huge open interest at 640 CA may see steep fall if it trades below 639 support level. The BHEL is facing resistance above 1410-12 level may correct steeply if it closes below 1350 level.
The Asian Markets are trading in red with nearly1.5 - 2% cut and the ADRs were not deeply cut. The SGX Nifty is trading at 2740 level down by 52 points. The challenge now is to recover from the lows. In case the Govt willing to provide easy liquidity situation by signaling RBI to cut the CRR and Repo rate cuts to spur the local demand as the inflation is totally under control may save our markets, other wise the markets next broad range will be in a range of 2830-2420 for next quarter.
The stocks like GE shipping moved up from 187 to 225 levels now back to square. The ICICI from 360 levels to 440 levels now back to 360 levels. The effort made to move was used to exit is the main problem in the markets. The HNIs, MFs and FIIs have little conviction that the world economy will recover soon so is the Indian economy.
The Nifty is good above 2803 as Reliance good above 1306. The markets today may not hold above 2780 level cold test 2704 level first and the better support exists at 2680 level. The volumes were dried up and the trading has been confined to limited stocks with high degree of volatility based on news/expectations.
Today Nifty may face resistance at 2793 level may get support at 2724-29 level and next at 2703-05 level. The Reliance may face resistance at 1301-1298 level and will become weak below 1281 level may get support at 1246 level and next at 1238 level. The ONGC may face resistance at 683-86 level may get support at 662 level and next at 651-53 level. The Rel Infra may face resistance at 516 level may get support at 486 level and next at 473-71 level where the recent bottom support exists.
The ICICI may face resistance at 373-75 level may get support at 341-42level. The Relcap may face resistance at 381-83 level may get support at 359-57 level. The Bharti which built huge open interest at 640 CA may see steep fall if it trades below 639 support level. The BHEL is facing resistance above 1410-12 level may correct steeply if it closes below 1350 level.
The Asian Markets are trading in red with nearly1.5 - 2% cut and the ADRs were not deeply cut. The SGX Nifty is trading at 2740 level down by 52 points. The challenge now is to recover from the lows. In case the Govt willing to provide easy liquidity situation by signaling RBI to cut the CRR and Repo rate cuts to spur the local demand as the inflation is totally under control may save our markets, other wise the markets next broad range will be in a range of 2830-2420 for next quarter.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
The determined bulls…..
The Nifty though weak by its level it didn’t let the Bears to take ride across the board. The Asian markets were weak and weak global cues did not help the Bears much to have a run as they wish but the Bull made their best effort to save the territory.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: As suggested in the morning post, Nifty could display its strength with a positive picture despite of weak global cues but tried to post nearly +36 points at one point in time. The Nifty made a come back to show a green close from a low of 2736 to touch a high of 2806.85 before closing at 2776.15
The Reliance took support at the first support level at 1240. The ONGC could not cross the 690 level as the high made was at 689.80
The ICICI high did not crossed but came to 365 low, expected 368 level. The Relcap high touched at 387.80 low touched 371.35. The Rel infra in the morning it could trade above 521 level and 17 lakhs traded above that level and the minute it fell below the 511 support level first touché at 496 later after a recovery to 516 then fell back to 493.35 as expected.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: As suggested in the morning post, Nifty could display its strength with a positive picture despite of weak global cues but tried to post nearly +36 points at one point in time. The Nifty made a come back to show a green close from a low of 2736 to touch a high of 2806.85 before closing at 2776.15
The Reliance took support at the first support level at 1240. The ONGC could not cross the 690 level as the high made was at 689.80
The ICICI high did not crossed but came to 365 low, expected 368 level. The Relcap high touched at 387.80 low touched 371.35. The Rel infra in the morning it could trade above 521 level and 17 lakhs traded above that level and the minute it fell below the 511 support level first touché at 496 later after a recovery to 516 then fell back to 493.35 as expected.
The inevitable…..
The Nifty is facing serious threat while moving up due to the US heading to deep recession that could not be saved with Obama package. The treat is that the IT outsourcing companies may face the difficulties as well the exporters.
The Nifty is down from a high of 2970 to 2757 in two days as it fell on 7th Jan from 3150 level 2750 in three days and that registered high was not crossed till date despite many global favourable news and rallies.
It seems that the US DOW likely to breach the Nov-lows but we may go close to 2500 level but the lows registered will not be breached so long we trade above 2550 level. The markets are weak to move but they are strong at the bottom as bottom fishing is seen in the heavy weights.
Today the Nifty has to cross the 2810 level in the intra day movement to exhibit its strength for future. The Nifty is weak below 2835 level and may get support first at 2685 level and next at 2650 level. The ONGC is good above 690 level and may get support at 650 level, it will become weak it breaches the immediate major support at 630-625 level. The Reliance has rallied from 1065 to 1405 lost nearly half to touch 1258 could get support first at 1236-39 level and the immediate good support seen at 1221-23 level. The ICICI is good above 389 and weak below 381 to touch 371 and 368 range from where the earlier move started. The Rel infra is good above 521-23 level weak below 511-09 to touch 493 and next at 486. The Relcap is weak below 386 level to touch the earlier support at 361-63 level.The issue of pledged shares demanding additional margin will effect the prices once the drop below by 20% to the recent supports.
The Asian markets are trading in red due to the spill over effect of US. The SGX-Nifty was down by nearly 33 points at 2723 level.
The Nifty is down from a high of 2970 to 2757 in two days as it fell on 7th Jan from 3150 level 2750 in three days and that registered high was not crossed till date despite many global favourable news and rallies.
It seems that the US DOW likely to breach the Nov-lows but we may go close to 2500 level but the lows registered will not be breached so long we trade above 2550 level. The markets are weak to move but they are strong at the bottom as bottom fishing is seen in the heavy weights.
Today the Nifty has to cross the 2810 level in the intra day movement to exhibit its strength for future. The Nifty is weak below 2835 level and may get support first at 2685 level and next at 2650 level. The ONGC is good above 690 level and may get support at 650 level, it will become weak it breaches the immediate major support at 630-625 level. The Reliance has rallied from 1065 to 1405 lost nearly half to touch 1258 could get support first at 1236-39 level and the immediate good support seen at 1221-23 level. The ICICI is good above 389 and weak below 381 to touch 371 and 368 range from where the earlier move started. The Rel infra is good above 521-23 level weak below 511-09 to touch 493 and next at 486. The Relcap is weak below 386 level to touch the earlier support at 361-63 level.The issue of pledged shares demanding additional margin will effect the prices once the drop below by 20% to the recent supports.
The Asian markets are trading in red due to the spill over effect of US. The SGX-Nifty was down by nearly 33 points at 2723 level.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
The belied hopes……..
The Nifty has taken severe Bear beating due to weak global cues and the down turn in the Asian markets. The belied expectations of the markets pushed hard to un-wind the long positions built over the fortnight. This could be the major reason for the Nifty heavy weights opened below yesterday lows.
The news flow is also no good to help the Bulls to hang on their positions. The Europe melts down by 3%and the US is bleeding. In case the US fails to recover at least 2% from the bottom then our markets likely to crumble on its weight.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
As posted in the morning, the Nifty took support at 2757 and the high registered at 2855 (2857-62high and low at 2750)
The Reliance took support at took support at 1258.20 and the high touched at 1307. The ONGC high 689.4and the low touched at Rs 670.0.The ICICI bank though touched high at 438.8 but it did not cross 405 at any point but touched a low at 380.20. The RelInfra has got support at 507.65 touched a high at 528.8
The news flow is also no good to help the Bulls to hang on their positions. The Europe melts down by 3%and the US is bleeding. In case the US fails to recover at least 2% from the bottom then our markets likely to crumble on its weight.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
As posted in the morning, the Nifty took support at 2757 and the high registered at 2855 (2857-62high and low at 2750)
The Reliance took support at took support at 1258.20 and the high touched at 1307. The ONGC high 689.4and the low touched at Rs 670.0.The ICICI bank though touched high at 438.8 but it did not cross 405 at any point but touched a low at 380.20. The RelInfra has got support at 507.65 touched a high at 528.8
The “LONGS” unwinding…..
The interim budget has everything for the forth coming elections but not for the industry. It is more so for the stock markets. How can we expect fire works from a Govt that faces elections with in 3 months?. The rumors were spread to attract retail positions building in longs and the HNI/operator building on the other side to make some quick money in a week. It is very unlikely that a retailer build against position.
The Nifty was at same closing level when a comparison made with a week back levels show that the stocks in F&O sector are still in the positive territory despite of the Nifty falls by100 points. The Nifty has built solid foundation of bottom building at 2660-90 for 5 consecutive days and at 2750-80 for 6 consecutive trading days. So the is very likely to get support at these levels. The recent top for Nifty was capped at 2926-69 level for 6 trading days.
As the home bound down trend, Erope weakness and the current melt down of Asian markets may put pressure in the opening. If we take a cue from the SGX-Nifty down by nearly 30 points may trigger more unwinding. The Nifty for this day could face resistance at 2857-62 level. The support is likely to emerge at 2780 and at 2750 level. The RIL is good for long only when it trades above 1375-73 level. The RIL will become weak if it trades below 1260 level. But it may face resistance at 1351-53 level for today and the bottom support first at 1291-93 level and further fall may take it to 1271 level.
The ICICI took support at 406 level which I wrote in my earlier posts (……..that The banking sector build decent bottom building can trigger a rally of 10-15% from the current levels. …………The Nifty has the potential to touch 2930 level has bottom support at 2780 level and is good for Bull so long it trades above 2813-15 level. The RIL can cross 1375 has bottom support and good above 1321 level. The ICICI can touch 418 level and good above 406. The Infosys has resistance at 1315-20 region and support at 1236-42 regions………..).The Relcap took support at 396 level and SBI above 1126 level. Now the triggers for this sector are lacking but a ray of hope still alive as RBI expected to go for a rate cut soon. The RBI may announce at least 50bps rate cut in CRR to infuse more liquidity in the system after the announcement of inflation figures on Thursday.
The ONGC is weak below 694 and good above 705, ICICI may face resistance at 416-18 level and good above 429 only. The bottom support may emerge at 391-88 level. The Rel infra is good above 546 weak below 539 and the bottom support first at 505 and at 496 level.
The Nifty was at same closing level when a comparison made with a week back levels show that the stocks in F&O sector are still in the positive territory despite of the Nifty falls by100 points. The Nifty has built solid foundation of bottom building at 2660-90 for 5 consecutive days and at 2750-80 for 6 consecutive trading days. So the is very likely to get support at these levels. The recent top for Nifty was capped at 2926-69 level for 6 trading days.
As the home bound down trend, Erope weakness and the current melt down of Asian markets may put pressure in the opening. If we take a cue from the SGX-Nifty down by nearly 30 points may trigger more unwinding. The Nifty for this day could face resistance at 2857-62 level. The support is likely to emerge at 2780 and at 2750 level. The RIL is good for long only when it trades above 1375-73 level. The RIL will become weak if it trades below 1260 level. But it may face resistance at 1351-53 level for today and the bottom support first at 1291-93 level and further fall may take it to 1271 level.
The ICICI took support at 406 level which I wrote in my earlier posts (……..that The banking sector build decent bottom building can trigger a rally of 10-15% from the current levels. …………The Nifty has the potential to touch 2930 level has bottom support at 2780 level and is good for Bull so long it trades above 2813-15 level. The RIL can cross 1375 has bottom support and good above 1321 level. The ICICI can touch 418 level and good above 406. The Infosys has resistance at 1315-20 region and support at 1236-42 regions………..).The Relcap took support at 396 level and SBI above 1126 level. Now the triggers for this sector are lacking but a ray of hope still alive as RBI expected to go for a rate cut soon. The RBI may announce at least 50bps rate cut in CRR to infuse more liquidity in the system after the announcement of inflation figures on Thursday.
The ONGC is weak below 694 and good above 705, ICICI may face resistance at 416-18 level and good above 429 only. The bottom support may emerge at 391-88 level. The Rel infra is good above 546 weak below 539 and the bottom support first at 505 and at 496 level.
Friday, February 13, 2009
The strength displayed……
The markets displayed the much needed strength despite the global pressures. The Nifty could hold above the 2886 level and the bottom support has not violated yet.
The bottom building process for the Nifty and for the important stocks like ONGC, ICICI, RELCAP, BHARTI, RCOM,HDFC HDFC Bank and may other. Now the strength was weakened due to RIL underperformance. Unless RIL trades above 1493 the Nifty could head no where. The markets are hoping to get support from RBI for rate cuts and stimulus package from GOI.
The Railway package can influence today before the interim budget on Monday.
The Nifty is strong above 2915 and weak below 2893, RIL is good above 1391 weak below 1381, ONGC is good above 706 and weak below 694, Infosys is weak below 1304 and weak below 1289, ICICI is weak below 411 and good above 421-23, Relcap is good above 426 and weak below 416 level.
The bottom building process for the Nifty and for the important stocks like ONGC, ICICI, RELCAP, BHARTI, RCOM,HDFC HDFC Bank and may other. Now the strength was weakened due to RIL underperformance. Unless RIL trades above 1493 the Nifty could head no where. The markets are hoping to get support from RBI for rate cuts and stimulus package from GOI.
The Railway package can influence today before the interim budget on Monday.
The Nifty is strong above 2915 and weak below 2893, RIL is good above 1391 weak below 1381, ONGC is good above 706 and weak below 694, Infosys is weak below 1304 and weak below 1289, ICICI is weak below 411 and good above 421-23, Relcap is good above 426 and weak below 416 level.
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