The regular readers do understand that the markets corrected more than anticipated, trading even below the expected 4900 level which has now become a strong resistance to scale up. The FII are engrossing the profits made all these days in sectors that affect the most in future like banking, motors, pharma and refinery sectors that out performed and they rule the Nifty anyway.
The economy is heading for a testing time with out the stimulus package. The US economy is going to do well as the world is now recognized the social sector spending for a sustainable dignity of life. So the spending in health care and the alternative energy will through big opportunity to us.
We are now focusing on infrastructure building hand in hand with social sector spending through NREGS and other rural economy spending. The coming budget will be more rural infra and farm spending which proved a big success to our economy. So no more cuts to corporate facilities or no more favours to corporate demands. The bulging fiscal deficit will be addressed through sale of PSUs and the governing is doing business for long time. So it will help the markets to float above these levels for some time.
The concern in food inflation now crack the foundations of the markets due to more stringent actions to controle the money circulation and inflationary rise no longer desirable to emerging markets. As a whole, the markets may not have pre-budget rally due the local and the global concerns.
The deep cut is not over for the markets so long it trades below the 4830 level. The bulls were captivated in the lower band of 4950 and 4830 level. The strong cues needed to pierce the resistance to release the market from the bear grip.
The big boy Reliance has suddenly dropped its strength to move up once it dropped below 1090 level (pls. read earlier postings). Now the markets will have something to offer to bulls only when the RIL trades above 1020 level and Nifty above 4885 level. The ICICI has to trade above 835 levels, a minimum of 821-25 is required. The markets are now dependant on the budgetary supports and the cut in corporate tax can trigger the Bull Run which is possible way to encourage investments for plough back method.
Monday, February 08, 2010
Thursday, February 04, 2010
SHANKAR SHARMA'S VIEWS.....
The world can't have a bull run in commodities: Shankar Sharma Vivek Kaul & Sachin Mampatta / DNAThursday, February 4, 2010 3:00 IST
The big bear hates commodity bull runs because, unlike other asset classes, it impoverishes people. So they don’t last. And he continues to be bearish. The Sensex, he says, is just a two square mile phenomenon — Fort to Nariman Point. The market going up benefits 25 brokers, 200 promoters and 100 funds. Iske aage kisko fayeda ho raha hai, boss? he asks. Meet Shankar Sharma, director and chief global strategist, First Global Stock Broking. In this freewheeling interview, he spoke to DNA Money of how China is 200 years ahead of India, how India doesn’t deserve to be a Bric nation, on how the market is all about insider trading:
How do you see 2010 panning out?
Back in December 2008, my view was that in 2009 could not by any logical measure be a down-year considering that we had already lost 60% in 2008, which was unprecedented. That panned out but within that, my view always was that it was a bear-market rally and not the emergence of a new bull market and I’ll still pretty much maintain that view till I find evidence to the contrary.
But what about 2010?
My view has been that we will see a market in the first half which will be quite ugly. The first half would be a down-half and the second would be an up-half but by and large, for the year, we may not see much of a huge swing as opposed to 2007, 2008 and 2009, which have been very huge by way of volatility. I doubt if this year will be as violent as the years past because volatility cannot continue with the same intensity perennially.
What about the impact of FII flows?
I don’t believe that money flows have anything to do with the market. So I don’t subscribe to that theory that flows determine where the markets go. The rationalist in me, the mathematician in me, tells me only one thing — that dollar in is always equal to dollar out. There can never be new money coming into the market, it is arithmetically impossible.
So we chose to focus on the side of the equation that supports the market move. If the markets rally and the FIIs bought stocks worth a thousand crores, we kind of work in reverse and say that because they bought the market went up.
I say what about the guys who sold a thousand crores? For FIIs to have bought a thousand crores, somebody sold a thousand crores.
So how come we are not focusing on that side of the equation?
Because that’s not comfortable. We like to see easy patterns in things, that’s the way the human mind is. Sometimes patterns are easy and they sort of lull us into … Five days on which the FIIs bought, the markets went up so we kind of assume that that is the pattern. If you drill down, there is no pattern at all. The mind wants to seek a pattern in things that show no patterns at all. That’s the way the human mind works. We like easy theories, we like things we can tell our children. And I always say that if this was that simple, then my daughter, who is five, can be an analyst. If all that matters is that money came in, markets went up, and money went out, markets went down, then why do we need people who are educated. Then why do we need people who are educated for a pretty childish thing to analyse? Anybody can analyse it.
No flows can determine where the market is going. It’s irrelevant. The market does not know the identity of the buyer or the seller. A dollar in is equal to a dollar out. And a dollar in, irrespective of where it comes from, has the same monetary effect on the market. I can’t say that just because a foreigner is buying stock, I have to attach $1.5 of value to a $1 investment. That’s all bullshit. That’s all nice talk that people begin to talk, you know, over three drinks…
Ultimately there is no rational basis for saying these things. But in life there are a lot of things which we kind of just believe, that’s the way it is. Rationalists always debunk these theories. I belong to that camp. I believe in a lot of nonsense also but I don’t believe this nonsense.
What is the rationalist’s view of the markets?
My views are determined by 60% technical analysis and 40% by fundamentals. Money flows don’t matter, because arithmetically money flows cannot matter. Dollar in is always equal to dollar out.
I’ll tell you where it matters. It matters in a thinly traded stock. That’s where it matters, because that guy is the market. That one guy, two guys, that cartel of people they can manipulate and take up the price of a single stock, a Z-group stock. And that happens. Even as we speak, there is some stock being manipulated, that’s possible. But I am not talking about a stock, I am talking aggregate, macro, a big market. A large, liquid well-traded market. And by category emerging markets, by category global equity markets, its not possible yaar. ...............AND MUCH MORE..........
I pay much attention towards my Ph.D., hopefully on market sensitivity, econmic liberalisation and market capitalisation. So I try to publish atleast twice in a week. I hope my ardent followers appreciate.
The big bear hates commodity bull runs because, unlike other asset classes, it impoverishes people. So they don’t last. And he continues to be bearish. The Sensex, he says, is just a two square mile phenomenon — Fort to Nariman Point. The market going up benefits 25 brokers, 200 promoters and 100 funds. Iske aage kisko fayeda ho raha hai, boss? he asks. Meet Shankar Sharma, director and chief global strategist, First Global Stock Broking. In this freewheeling interview, he spoke to DNA Money of how China is 200 years ahead of India, how India doesn’t deserve to be a Bric nation, on how the market is all about insider trading:
How do you see 2010 panning out?
Back in December 2008, my view was that in 2009 could not by any logical measure be a down-year considering that we had already lost 60% in 2008, which was unprecedented. That panned out but within that, my view always was that it was a bear-market rally and not the emergence of a new bull market and I’ll still pretty much maintain that view till I find evidence to the contrary.
But what about 2010?
My view has been that we will see a market in the first half which will be quite ugly. The first half would be a down-half and the second would be an up-half but by and large, for the year, we may not see much of a huge swing as opposed to 2007, 2008 and 2009, which have been very huge by way of volatility. I doubt if this year will be as violent as the years past because volatility cannot continue with the same intensity perennially.
What about the impact of FII flows?
I don’t believe that money flows have anything to do with the market. So I don’t subscribe to that theory that flows determine where the markets go. The rationalist in me, the mathematician in me, tells me only one thing — that dollar in is always equal to dollar out. There can never be new money coming into the market, it is arithmetically impossible.
So we chose to focus on the side of the equation that supports the market move. If the markets rally and the FIIs bought stocks worth a thousand crores, we kind of work in reverse and say that because they bought the market went up.
I say what about the guys who sold a thousand crores? For FIIs to have bought a thousand crores, somebody sold a thousand crores.
So how come we are not focusing on that side of the equation?
Because that’s not comfortable. We like to see easy patterns in things, that’s the way the human mind is. Sometimes patterns are easy and they sort of lull us into … Five days on which the FIIs bought, the markets went up so we kind of assume that that is the pattern. If you drill down, there is no pattern at all. The mind wants to seek a pattern in things that show no patterns at all. That’s the way the human mind works. We like easy theories, we like things we can tell our children. And I always say that if this was that simple, then my daughter, who is five, can be an analyst. If all that matters is that money came in, markets went up, and money went out, markets went down, then why do we need people who are educated. Then why do we need people who are educated for a pretty childish thing to analyse? Anybody can analyse it.
No flows can determine where the market is going. It’s irrelevant. The market does not know the identity of the buyer or the seller. A dollar in is equal to a dollar out. And a dollar in, irrespective of where it comes from, has the same monetary effect on the market. I can’t say that just because a foreigner is buying stock, I have to attach $1.5 of value to a $1 investment. That’s all bullshit. That’s all nice talk that people begin to talk, you know, over three drinks…
Ultimately there is no rational basis for saying these things. But in life there are a lot of things which we kind of just believe, that’s the way it is. Rationalists always debunk these theories. I belong to that camp. I believe in a lot of nonsense also but I don’t believe this nonsense.
What is the rationalist’s view of the markets?
My views are determined by 60% technical analysis and 40% by fundamentals. Money flows don’t matter, because arithmetically money flows cannot matter. Dollar in is always equal to dollar out.
I’ll tell you where it matters. It matters in a thinly traded stock. That’s where it matters, because that guy is the market. That one guy, two guys, that cartel of people they can manipulate and take up the price of a single stock, a Z-group stock. And that happens. Even as we speak, there is some stock being manipulated, that’s possible. But I am not talking about a stock, I am talking aggregate, macro, a big market. A large, liquid well-traded market. And by category emerging markets, by category global equity markets, its not possible yaar. ...............AND MUCH MORE..........
I pay much attention towards my Ph.D., hopefully on market sensitivity, econmic liberalisation and market capitalisation. So I try to publish atleast twice in a week. I hope my ardent followers appreciate.
Friday, January 22, 2010
Surprise ....always.....
The quarter on quarter is not good but otherwise the ONGC performance is good. The huge investments resulted an increase of depreciation from 2860cr to 4875cs for this quarter under review and the volume catch up as the sales increased from 12436 to 15314 cr. The net profit increased from 3362 cr to 4626 crs.
The JSW steel, SASKEN presented stellar performance but IDEA disappointed by the competition. The ICICI retail banking is bleeding by 230 cr loss where as the wholesale banking and the treasury operations are very profitable, the same is the story of the YES bank. The ICICI total income is at 7763 down from 10,350 crs. There is saving on the Tax- 135cr and interest expended-1800crs. The net profit plunged from 1272cr to 1101 crs. The Stock likely to go sub 750 level.
The markets as expected lost the bottoms, plunged by 2.2%, a surprise to many by our readers noticed the developments earlier. The RIL results are expected better in line with ONGC but the polyster business needs to be observed.
The markets may get support for a temporary bounce expected from 5040 level. The melt down fro telecos and auto and Pharma will put weight/cap on the up site for sure.
The JSW steel, SASKEN presented stellar performance but IDEA disappointed by the competition. The ICICI retail banking is bleeding by 230 cr loss where as the wholesale banking and the treasury operations are very profitable, the same is the story of the YES bank. The ICICI total income is at 7763 down from 10,350 crs. There is saving on the Tax- 135cr and interest expended-1800crs. The net profit plunged from 1272cr to 1101 crs. The Stock likely to go sub 750 level.
The markets as expected lost the bottoms, plunged by 2.2%, a surprise to many by our readers noticed the developments earlier. The RIL results are expected better in line with ONGC but the polyster business needs to be observed.
The markets may get support for a temporary bounce expected from 5040 level. The melt down fro telecos and auto and Pharma will put weight/cap on the up site for sure.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Waiting ..waiting .....???
The Nifty could hold above the support level of 4180-5200 due to the IT heavy weights rotation, the propping from banking and telecos, but the Reliance once again at the cross roads at 1077, ONGC closed at 1196. The recent coal gasification project in Orissa add value to Tatasteel apart from the good expected results from the steel sector in the coming quarters due the price revisions.
In case the market fails to close above 5240 tomorrow and high doesn’t cross the resistance at 5270, there is a steep correction in the offing that could drag the indices to 4900 level irrespective the corporate results. The market operators are steadily off loading their holdings at higher level is a concern. In case the Bharti, ICICI bank and Tata steel fails to get support from these levels can be considered as a bad omen to Nifty it self.
Those whose are personally accessible to me know that I recommended to buy all cotton and textile stocks in Nov- second week, precise on 12th Nov-09. Now all the stocks be it Surya Lakshmi Cotton mills, Digjam, BSL etc all are doubled. Those who can build positions for a longer period can accumulate the Infra companies for a 5 year period for decent returns-multibaggers.
For now, incase Reliance fails to trade above 1106-09, ONGC has to cross 1205-08, ICICI has to trade above 893 can consider that the markets are heading for Southwards. The banking lot is the weakest link apart from profit booking in IT counters.
The recent run-ups in the counters of cement, IT scan find some more profit taking. The counters like Grasim may get 1st support at 2635-40 but good support and bounce can be expected at 2570.
The Infra stocks are sold out despite good results from JP is due to rise in the input costs and fear ruling in the rumors of Govt. stimulus withdrawal due to high inflation. But they are the one that will catch once the market rebounds.
In case the market fails to close above 5240 tomorrow and high doesn’t cross the resistance at 5270, there is a steep correction in the offing that could drag the indices to 4900 level irrespective the corporate results. The market operators are steadily off loading their holdings at higher level is a concern. In case the Bharti, ICICI bank and Tata steel fails to get support from these levels can be considered as a bad omen to Nifty it self.
Those whose are personally accessible to me know that I recommended to buy all cotton and textile stocks in Nov- second week, precise on 12th Nov-09. Now all the stocks be it Surya Lakshmi Cotton mills, Digjam, BSL etc all are doubled. Those who can build positions for a longer period can accumulate the Infra companies for a 5 year period for decent returns-multibaggers.
For now, incase Reliance fails to trade above 1106-09, ONGC has to cross 1205-08, ICICI has to trade above 893 can consider that the markets are heading for Southwards. The banking lot is the weakest link apart from profit booking in IT counters.
The recent run-ups in the counters of cement, IT scan find some more profit taking. The counters like Grasim may get 1st support at 2635-40 but good support and bounce can be expected at 2570.
The Infra stocks are sold out despite good results from JP is due to rise in the input costs and fear ruling in the rumors of Govt. stimulus withdrawal due to high inflation. But they are the one that will catch once the market rebounds.
Monday, January 18, 2010
The levels broken .....
The Nifty levels were not breached drastically yet but the levels of the leaders were broken seriously in FMCG, banking, …except the IT.
The ONGC though looks good, in the bull grip failed to scale up from the previous day support above 1220, but retraced to 1210 a circle juncture on Friday. The story is no different to Reliance, which expected to stay above 1125 but staggering at 1110-1105.
The Nifty is good above 5240 but now it has to trade above 5265-70 level to get the real strength and short covering of Bears above 5280 to scale to 5500 level. As of now the Nifty is in a range but likely to travel towards 5140 level or even lower due to the global meltdown and feeling heavy to cross the resistance due to lack of positive triggers.
The tech giants are giving good support to Nifty and feel good factor of the IIP numbers and the economic out look putting positive additions to numbers but the future withdrawl of stimulus, spiraling of inflation numbers and the FII inflows make the RBI to the stringent in dealing with them can give a chance to bears to hammer down the indices.
The outflows of money from the MF above 1 lakh crores in the first week of Jan-10 shows weak faith in the market for future at least for next Sep-10. I mentioned the same in my earlier posting.
The March quarter results of the majors will be impacted by the primary rise of food prices, commodity rise and lack luster performance of industry shown by the low credit off take.
The Nifty is like to trade at 16-18 of P/E by August rather than the current 23.5
The markets will correct but not collapse as it did in 2008.
The ONGC though looks good, in the bull grip failed to scale up from the previous day support above 1220, but retraced to 1210 a circle juncture on Friday. The story is no different to Reliance, which expected to stay above 1125 but staggering at 1110-1105.
The Nifty is good above 5240 but now it has to trade above 5265-70 level to get the real strength and short covering of Bears above 5280 to scale to 5500 level. As of now the Nifty is in a range but likely to travel towards 5140 level or even lower due to the global meltdown and feeling heavy to cross the resistance due to lack of positive triggers.
The tech giants are giving good support to Nifty and feel good factor of the IIP numbers and the economic out look putting positive additions to numbers but the future withdrawl of stimulus, spiraling of inflation numbers and the FII inflows make the RBI to the stringent in dealing with them can give a chance to bears to hammer down the indices.
The outflows of money from the MF above 1 lakh crores in the first week of Jan-10 shows weak faith in the market for future at least for next Sep-10. I mentioned the same in my earlier posting.
The March quarter results of the majors will be impacted by the primary rise of food prices, commodity rise and lack luster performance of industry shown by the low credit off take.
The Nifty is like to trade at 16-18 of P/E by August rather than the current 23.5
The markets will correct but not collapse as it did in 2008.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
The Infy-nite- support.....
The one of the promoters of POLARIS-Orbitech sold close to 23.88 lakh shares in the said company. I earlier mentioned about the leads given by Reliance.
In SASKEN communications, the Nortel Networks reduced the holding by selling 2.68 lakh shares but still holding 7.20 percent. In BSEL Infrastructure reality limited, 500000 shares were sold by Total Bizcon solution ltd to reduce its stake by 50% to 0.605
In a press release PunjLloyd announced that it received a power plant construction order for Rs 947 crores and the total orders at hand are more than Rs 28,300 crores as of Sep-09.
The Infosys results cheered the house and given thumps up support by 3.5% rise in the stock price. The quarterly results are good under difficult recession period, but the concern is sales has declined, the selling cost is increasing and the other income increased by 5 times and tax expenses almost doubled when compared to last year. The rupee is strengthening will impact on the margins considerably in coming quarters, unless the operational efficiencies improved along with sales will dent in the net profit can change the valuations. The early signs of the bellwether made a rat race in the remaining IT stocks.
The IT company MASTEK is also failed to improve the operational profits, reduced from 22crores to 7.9 and the sales down by more than 30% when compared to a year back.
The auto sector is in zoom speed, the Bajaj Auto produced excellent results sales increased from 2004 cr to 3165 cr and net profit increased from 164 cr to 475 cr.
The early trends of sugar company profits are rocketing in line with the per Kg domestic price rise.
In SASKEN communications, the Nortel Networks reduced the holding by selling 2.68 lakh shares but still holding 7.20 percent. In BSEL Infrastructure reality limited, 500000 shares were sold by Total Bizcon solution ltd to reduce its stake by 50% to 0.605
In a press release PunjLloyd announced that it received a power plant construction order for Rs 947 crores and the total orders at hand are more than Rs 28,300 crores as of Sep-09.
The Infosys results cheered the house and given thumps up support by 3.5% rise in the stock price. The quarterly results are good under difficult recession period, but the concern is sales has declined, the selling cost is increasing and the other income increased by 5 times and tax expenses almost doubled when compared to last year. The rupee is strengthening will impact on the margins considerably in coming quarters, unless the operational efficiencies improved along with sales will dent in the net profit can change the valuations. The early signs of the bellwether made a rat race in the remaining IT stocks.
The IT company MASTEK is also failed to improve the operational profits, reduced from 22crores to 7.9 and the sales down by more than 30% when compared to a year back.
The auto sector is in zoom speed, the Bajaj Auto produced excellent results sales increased from 2004 cr to 3165 cr and net profit increased from 164 cr to 475 cr.
The early trends of sugar company profits are rocketing in line with the per Kg domestic price rise.
Friday, January 08, 2010
The EXPORT woes..
The export based survivals like and cotton are facing the heat of Rupee strengthening. The Rupee got good strength on the future outlook of the economy and the huge dollar inflow.
The IT and the BPO sector mid caps will suffer the most as they cannot match their peers. The giants are eyes the domestic business which is opening its doors, especially to the top 5 It power houses.
The markets are gaining strength in the index due to heavy import dependant oil sector majors gaining the ground for the last 10 trading days.
The RBI heavily invested the surplus of dollars in GOLD, allowed the rupee to appreciate for some extent to balance the payment obligations.
Now the market will see correction in Pharma majors Divis, CIPLA, Ranbaxy, DrReddy, Piramals, Aurobindo and export dependant infrastructure companies like Punj Llyod and LT, some extent the Indian auto companies who are exporting considerably.
The banking sector is waiting for some cues to react. The price of ICICI falls below 850 then the market will see a major correction as anticipated. The Tata steel is facing resistance at 649-52 level will touch 614-611 incase the Nifty trades below 5250 level.
As of now the only ugly duck and lamenting for Govt. support industry- the reality sector is in bull grip may be some informed action being built in.
The odd sign is that the treasury stock sale of Reliance for Rs2500 cr and the promoter offloadings are not healthy signs, stimulus exit plans in near future may welcome bitter taste.
The Nifty is still in Bull grip so long it trades above 5240 and a serious correction for 100 points is viewed with the above said (previous postings) supports cracked.
The IT and the BPO sector mid caps will suffer the most as they cannot match their peers. The giants are eyes the domestic business which is opening its doors, especially to the top 5 It power houses.
The markets are gaining strength in the index due to heavy import dependant oil sector majors gaining the ground for the last 10 trading days.
The RBI heavily invested the surplus of dollars in GOLD, allowed the rupee to appreciate for some extent to balance the payment obligations.
Now the market will see correction in Pharma majors Divis, CIPLA, Ranbaxy, DrReddy, Piramals, Aurobindo and export dependant infrastructure companies like Punj Llyod and LT, some extent the Indian auto companies who are exporting considerably.
The banking sector is waiting for some cues to react. The price of ICICI falls below 850 then the market will see a major correction as anticipated. The Tata steel is facing resistance at 649-52 level will touch 614-611 incase the Nifty trades below 5250 level.
As of now the only ugly duck and lamenting for Govt. support industry- the reality sector is in bull grip may be some informed action being built in.
The odd sign is that the treasury stock sale of Reliance for Rs2500 cr and the promoter offloadings are not healthy signs, stimulus exit plans in near future may welcome bitter taste.
The Nifty is still in Bull grip so long it trades above 5240 and a serious correction for 100 points is viewed with the above said (previous postings) supports cracked.
Thursday, January 07, 2010
FIIs continue to buy...but
The markets are holding above 5180 can always look for a target of 5450 level, to be precise the markets are in bull grip even if the Nifty falls to a level of 4950. The Nifty is holding despite the new highs were touched. But the divergent behaviour of the Nifty stocks is not a good sign for a longer bet. The market is good for buying solong the big boy Reliance trades above 1076 level and ONGC above1205 level.
The very fact that the market is not reacting to news of Individual companies like Bharti but the poring of dollars into India has generated much interest in the market as a whole to scale to 23 month high. The big support being given by investors to the recent IPOs is a good sign, doing well in the market unlike the earlier listings.
The health care especially those are in CRAMS and biotech are being encouraged in yesterday. The reality sector majors will give good early gains for tomorrow but the market is likely to see a correction which is a healthy sign.
The DLF is good above 373 level and HDIL is good above 376 level. The Tata Motors can be shorted with a stoploss at 826 level and Tatapower may see correction to close below 1455. The metals may see some further correction generated and Sesa Goa is no exception.
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FIIs infuse Rs 24,800 cr in stock markets in December quarter--- The Economic Times covered on 3 Jan 2010 about the FII interest in Indian economic growth and in our markets
…In the quarter under review, December attracted the highest inflow of Rs 10,233.1 crore($2.1 billion), followed by October (Rs 9,077 crore) and November (5,497 crore)….
…FII investment of Rs 83,420 crore in 2009 is the highest ever inflow in the country in rupee terms in a single year and comes a year after they pulled out over Rs 50,000 crore. …The inflow in 2009 broke the previous high of Rs 71,486 crore parked by foreign fund houses in domestic equities in 2007. …Interestingly, the whopping inflow by FIIs into the local stock markets has alarmed the government and other authorities concerned….
The markets are holding above 5180 can always look for a target of 5450 level, to be precise the markets are in bull grip even if the Nifty falls to a level of 4950. The Nifty is holding despite the new highs were touched. But the divergent behaviour of the Nifty stocks is not a good sign for a longer bet. The market is good for buying solong the big boy Reliance trades above 1076 level and ONGC above1205 level.
The very fact that the market is not reacting to news of Individual companies like Bharti but the poring of dollars into India has generated much interest in the market as a whole to scale to 23 month high. The big support being given by investors to the recent IPOs is a good sign, doing well in the market unlike the earlier listings.
The health care especially those are in CRAMS and biotech are being encouraged in yesterday. The reality sector majors will give good early gains for tomorrow but the market is likely to see a correction which is a healthy sign.
The DLF is good above 373 level and HDIL is good above 376 level. The Tata Motors can be shorted with a stoploss at 826 level and Tatapower may see correction to close below 1455. The metals may see some further correction generated and Sesa Goa is no exception.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FIIs infuse Rs 24,800 cr in stock markets in December quarter--- The Economic Times covered on 3 Jan 2010 about the FII interest in Indian economic growth and in our markets
…In the quarter under review, December attracted the highest inflow of Rs 10,233.1 crore($2.1 billion), followed by October (Rs 9,077 crore) and November (5,497 crore)….
…FII investment of Rs 83,420 crore in 2009 is the highest ever inflow in the country in rupee terms in a single year and comes a year after they pulled out over Rs 50,000 crore. …The inflow in 2009 broke the previous high of Rs 71,486 crore parked by foreign fund houses in domestic equities in 2007. …Interestingly, the whopping inflow by FIIs into the local stock markets has alarmed the government and other authorities concerned….
The markets are holding above 5180 can always look for a target of 5450 level, to be precise the markets are in bull grip even if the Nifty falls to a level of 4950. The Nifty is holding despite the new highs were touched. But the divergent behaviour of the Nifty stocks is not a good sign for a longer bet. The market is good for buying solong the big boy Reliance trades above 1076 level and ONGC above1205 level.
Tuesday, January 05, 2010
THE METAL RALLY
The recent rally from 4950 to 5280 - The commodity stocks are rocking the street, first the ferrous metals later followed by base metals and after some time lag the Sugar and Tea enjoyed the bulls support.
The auto sector has got tremendous investor support especially in TATAMOTORS and M&M despite the recessionary investment postponements in other sectors but not in the transport vehicles. The auto exports are increasing from India and continue to do so in future but not the prices of these stocks any longer.
The immediate prospects on banking are emerging. The stocks like SBI, ICICI and Relcap likely to catch up with market trend for sure but not at all good for holding more than two weeks....
As a matter of fact Nifty in strong bull grip but being used to off-load....wait for the future and see in the past.....
The auto sector has got tremendous investor support especially in TATAMOTORS and M&M despite the recessionary investment postponements in other sectors but not in the transport vehicles. The auto exports are increasing from India and continue to do so in future but not the prices of these stocks any longer.
The immediate prospects on banking are emerging. The stocks like SBI, ICICI and Relcap likely to catch up with market trend for sure but not at all good for holding more than two weeks....
As a matter of fact Nifty in strong bull grip but being used to off-load....wait for the future and see in the past.....
NEW YEAR- WEALTH CREATION
Wish You a Happy and Prosperous Year-2010
Now the market is likely to be range bound for this 2010 with in the range of 3660-5640 levels for Nifty.
The traders with good understanding of stock action can GAIN more than the sluggish decision makers with a view of high growth in share prices just for their holding period as a reward.
I sincerely wish you all the New Year provide prosperity and satisfaction for being in the stock market no matter the direction of journey of the market.
Now the market is likely to be range bound for this 2010 with in the range of 3660-5640 levels for Nifty.
The traders with good understanding of stock action can GAIN more than the sluggish decision makers with a view of high growth in share prices just for their holding period as a reward.
I sincerely wish you all the New Year provide prosperity and satisfaction for being in the stock market no matter the direction of journey of the market.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
The Historical levels
The Indian markets touched multi-year best gains registered after 1992 in May with meteoric rise above 28% and the world is no different in registering yearly highs in-2009. The global indices suggest that the markets are in emerging bull market with firm Bull grip.
THE YEARLY - HIGH-LOW- CURRENT CLOSING.
NIFTY 4908.80 2252.75 4448.95
SENSEX 16632.70 7697.39 14625.25
S&P-500 1404.46 666.79 919.14
US-DOW 12760.20 6440.08 8500.33
NASDAQ 2549.94 1265.52 1774.33
HANG SENG 24923.30 10676.30 18171.00
NIKKEI-225 14601.30 6994.90 9522.50
FTSE-100 6111.60 3460.70 4417.94
DAX 7124.61 3588.89 4940.82
MIBTEL 25571.00 10347.00 15743.00
CAC-40 5028.80 2465.46 3277.65
BOVESPA 73920.00 29435.00 53197.73
STRAITS TIMES 3214.64 1455.47 2329.08
The Indian markets surged above 97% from the low registered and nearly 10% lower to its yearly highs. The strength of India and the stable government at the centre boosted the investors confidence but the retail participation is well below the expectations as the wounds were yet to heal.
The mutual funds and the cash driven FIIs are jubilant to grab the opportunity to invest in India. The liquidity chase can trigger the rally but hardly seen sustaining at the highs unless the whole hearted participation from the retail investors.
Now a different situation emerged as the election results were beyond antibody's expectation killed the the traders and the retail investors are staring the surge. So the initial euphoria is well captured by the deep pockets rather than the locals, now waiting for the calmdown of the tubulance is not a bad idea rather than jumping to conclusions.
THE YEARLY - HIGH-LOW- CURRENT CLOSING.
NIFTY 4908.80 2252.75 4448.95
SENSEX 16632.70 7697.39 14625.25
S&P-500 1404.46 666.79 919.14
US-DOW 12760.20 6440.08 8500.33
NASDAQ 2549.94 1265.52 1774.33
HANG SENG 24923.30 10676.30 18171.00
NIKKEI-225 14601.30 6994.90 9522.50
FTSE-100 6111.60 3460.70 4417.94
DAX 7124.61 3588.89 4940.82
MIBTEL 25571.00 10347.00 15743.00
CAC-40 5028.80 2465.46 3277.65
BOVESPA 73920.00 29435.00 53197.73
STRAITS TIMES 3214.64 1455.47 2329.08
The Indian markets surged above 97% from the low registered and nearly 10% lower to its yearly highs. The strength of India and the stable government at the centre boosted the investors confidence but the retail participation is well below the expectations as the wounds were yet to heal.
The mutual funds and the cash driven FIIs are jubilant to grab the opportunity to invest in India. The liquidity chase can trigger the rally but hardly seen sustaining at the highs unless the whole hearted participation from the retail investors.
Now a different situation emerged as the election results were beyond antibody's expectation killed the the traders and the retail investors are staring the surge. So the initial euphoria is well captured by the deep pockets rather than the locals, now waiting for the calmdown of the tubulance is not a bad idea rather than jumping to conclusions.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
The results..?
The election results and likely re-grouping will decide the Monday direction but the move so far is in favour of the bulls. The results out come may be negative for a day or two but the markets likely to resume the up-trend as the bottom formation right from the 3080 is good, consolidated at each stage with 200 points gap up to 3510-3530 level. So the panic sell-off on speculative rise can be restricted at 3361-51 level.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: The Following scrips covered in my previous posting: The high, low, closings of 15-05-09:
NIFTY 3686.25 3597.85 3671.65
ICICI 579 542 574.70
RIL 1960 1911.65 1950.7
REL INFRA 847.7 808.35 820.20
REL CAP 598.9 575 591.55
ONGC 852.95 802.35 813.15
AXIS BANK 680 644.70 659.60
DLF 264.90 251.60 258.05
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: The Following scrips covered in my previous posting: The high, low, closings of 15-05-09:
NIFTY 3686.25 3597.85 3671.65
ICICI 579 542 574.70
RIL 1960 1911.65 1950.7
REL INFRA 847.7 808.35 820.20
REL CAP 598.9 575 591.55
ONGC 852.95 802.35 813.15
AXIS BANK 680 644.70 659.60
DLF 264.90 251.60 258.05
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Friday, May 15, 2009
Caution or Chance....?
Yester day trade gained strength from the bottom is amazing despite of the weak signals from the political front in the country and also the overseas markets. The kind of buying emerging when the market falls provides an impression that the markets are likely to touch 4000 in near future if it closes and trades above 3622 with a condition that the markets shall not touch a low of 3440 level in near future due to uncertainty emerges after the results.
To day markets are in green and the SGX is suggesting a possible positive opening at 3630-40 level. The Nifty is good above 3624 level and weak below 3580 level for today. The Nifty may face series of resistance till it consolidates above the resistance at 36654-58 level.
The Reliance is still in Bull grip so long it trades above 1850-40 level, any move above is considered as consolidation process. The scrip may today see a correction in case it fails to trade above 1940 level.
The story of ONGC is different to script as it was forced to accept the transport costs of Cairn fields in Rajastan and the losses of OMC’s placing pressure to cross the 900 mark but it is likely to face serious resistance at 868-864.
The Rel infra has made a decent up move by crossing the resistance at 803-06 level, now the crucial point stands at 796-93 level.
The ICICI Bank despite of the up move it made long with other counters but failed to cross the resistance at 339-41 level. The ADR gained 6% shall reflect in today’s trade to cross the resistance at 661-59 level came two days back but will the poll results place the hurdle?
The Axis bank which continued to attract buying support on all declines failed to do so is sending a feeler on the market condition. In case it catches up on with the rest today then there is nothing serious otherwise…?. The bottom support was at 610-06 level and the scrip shall cross the immediate resistance at 653-55 level.
The Relcap is finding difficult to trade above 575 level but found support at 540 level. The counter is facing resistance between 575-590 level.
The come back of the reality sector is heartening for investors who lost the most in the recent fall but a long way to go to cover the distance.
The DLF as suggested in my earlier postings got support at 220 level and continued to enjoy the support as bottom boundary for 21 series of trading sessions except that 190.55 touched in the stake sale on 13th May.
To day markets are in green and the SGX is suggesting a possible positive opening at 3630-40 level. The Nifty is good above 3624 level and weak below 3580 level for today. The Nifty may face series of resistance till it consolidates above the resistance at 36654-58 level.
The Reliance is still in Bull grip so long it trades above 1850-40 level, any move above is considered as consolidation process. The scrip may today see a correction in case it fails to trade above 1940 level.
The story of ONGC is different to script as it was forced to accept the transport costs of Cairn fields in Rajastan and the losses of OMC’s placing pressure to cross the 900 mark but it is likely to face serious resistance at 868-864.
The Rel infra has made a decent up move by crossing the resistance at 803-06 level, now the crucial point stands at 796-93 level.
The ICICI Bank despite of the up move it made long with other counters but failed to cross the resistance at 339-41 level. The ADR gained 6% shall reflect in today’s trade to cross the resistance at 661-59 level came two days back but will the poll results place the hurdle?
The Axis bank which continued to attract buying support on all declines failed to do so is sending a feeler on the market condition. In case it catches up on with the rest today then there is nothing serious otherwise…?. The bottom support was at 610-06 level and the scrip shall cross the immediate resistance at 653-55 level.
The Relcap is finding difficult to trade above 575 level but found support at 540 level. The counter is facing resistance between 575-590 level.
The come back of the reality sector is heartening for investors who lost the most in the recent fall but a long way to go to cover the distance.
The DLF as suggested in my earlier postings got support at 220 level and continued to enjoy the support as bottom boundary for 21 series of trading sessions except that 190.55 touched in the stake sale on 13th May.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: The Following scrips covered in my previous
posting: The high, low, closings of 14-05-09:
Nifty 3631.90 3537.60 3593.45
ICICIBANK 540.00 519.00 536.25
RIL 1927.50 1880.20 1908.95
REL infra 818.40 765.30 809.60
Relcap 574.80 541.20 568.80
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Thursday, May 14, 2009
The election effect…..
The results of the exit polls, predicting a neck to neck fight for the power between the two with third option not ruled out put selling pressure in the late evening with basket sell-off in Indian equities. The US markets also sold off last night made the Asian markets to open lower. The Nifty is likely to open below or at the verge of support at 3570 level and the opening trades shall not force it trade below 3540 level which attracts more selling.
The Nifty now has resistance at 3581-88 level and weak further below 3540 level will get support at 3492 level with minor support at 3514 level.
The RIL has resistance at 1938-42 level has support at 1869 level and the second is below crucial 1850-40 level to travel further down.
The ICICI was weak below 539-41 level likely to test 490 level in this fall but for today it will again test 520 level and 511 level.
The other stocks are in the earlier suggested levels. The India Bulls Reality will fall with a high side cap at 146 to touch a level of 133 and at 129.0 but the HDIL is in strong bull hands so long it trades above 162-64 level.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: The Following scrips covered in my yesterday posting: The high, low, closings of 13-05-09:
Nifty 3709.60 3610.20 3635.25
ICICIBANK 574.70 541.60 551.15
RIL 1975 1906.0 1933.
REL infra 825 773.60 798.0
Relcap 592.4 556.55 571.90
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
The Nifty now has resistance at 3581-88 level and weak further below 3540 level will get support at 3492 level with minor support at 3514 level.
The RIL has resistance at 1938-42 level has support at 1869 level and the second is below crucial 1850-40 level to travel further down.
The ICICI was weak below 539-41 level likely to test 490 level in this fall but for today it will again test 520 level and 511 level.
The other stocks are in the earlier suggested levels. The India Bulls Reality will fall with a high side cap at 146 to touch a level of 133 and at 129.0 but the HDIL is in strong bull hands so long it trades above 162-64 level.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: The Following scrips covered in my yesterday posting: The high, low, closings of 13-05-09:
Nifty 3709.60 3610.20 3635.25
ICICIBANK 574.70 541.60 551.15
RIL 1975 1906.0 1933.
REL infra 825 773.60 798.0
Relcap 592.4 556.55 571.90
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Buying and buying……
The markets witnessed un-precedent up move beyond expectations. The markets sensed the possible hassle free govt. formation at the centre and the foreign investments are now unabated. The stocks have become dirt cheap for them and the growth story is intact despite the poor IIP numbers contracted by 2.3% but the silver lining is that the power generation up by 6.3% and mining up by 0.4%. They are not deterred by the short-term month on month contracted numbers but focusing on overall long-term opportunity stored in as POTENTIAL.
The Asian markets are flat with negative bias. The US closed slightly in green but the NASDAQ was down by 1%. The Tata Steel plans to restructure the loan by prepayment; plans to raise 3000 crore through NCDs and plans for efficient use of Corus capacities in these turbulent times, layoffs could cross 10,000. The independent auditors will look into the books of telecos.
The RIL will repay nearly 15000 crores surplus cash flow due to the merger of RPL can save huge amount on interest. DLF wants to sell 10%, plans o raise 3850 crores through QIP route.
The Nifty is in Bull grip with yesterday move so long it trades above 3573-71 level. The immediate support for today’s trade is at 3640 level but the up side resistance is also close at 3720 level again at 3736-41 level. So a more consolidation moves on the cards.
The RIL is strong above 1894 but the resistance at 1963 and at 1981. The bull move has the potential to take it to 2040 to 2057 level.
The Rel infra has resistance at 803-06 level and become weak below 77169 level. The ICICI has resistance at 559-61 level and the second one at 576 level and the support exists at 542-44 level. The Relcap may test 583-86 level but become weak below 548 level.
The Asian markets are flat with negative bias. The US closed slightly in green but the NASDAQ was down by 1%. The Tata Steel plans to restructure the loan by prepayment; plans to raise 3000 crore through NCDs and plans for efficient use of Corus capacities in these turbulent times, layoffs could cross 10,000. The independent auditors will look into the books of telecos.
The RIL will repay nearly 15000 crores surplus cash flow due to the merger of RPL can save huge amount on interest. DLF wants to sell 10%, plans o raise 3850 crores through QIP route.
The Nifty is in Bull grip with yesterday move so long it trades above 3573-71 level. The immediate support for today’s trade is at 3640 level but the up side resistance is also close at 3720 level again at 3736-41 level. So a more consolidation moves on the cards.
The RIL is strong above 1894 but the resistance at 1963 and at 1981. The bull move has the potential to take it to 2040 to 2057 level.
The Rel infra has resistance at 803-06 level and become weak below 77169 level. The ICICI has resistance at 559-61 level and the second one at 576 level and the support exists at 542-44 level. The Relcap may test 583-86 level but become weak below 548 level.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
The unwinding pressure……..
The markets took the heat of selling pressure from the Bears as well as from the Bull unwinding in the afternoon kept the indices low but the beauty part of the yester day trade was that Nifty did not collapse despite of such sustained selling. The market absorbed comfortable the selling pressure.
The notable gainers of big name are – Tulip IT and Nucleus software, AuroPharma, JindalSAW, Havells…etc. The reality sector and the metals were worst hit.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
The Following scrips covered in my yesterday posting: The high, low, closings of 11-05-09:
Nifty 3660.2 3534.55 3554.60
ICICIBANK 547.75 513 523.35
RIL 1928 1850.1 1861.60
REL infra 792.90 746.55 763.0
DLF 244.80 226.10 228.1
T.Steel 288.80 267.20 270.65
SAIL 127.15 118.20 120.15
JP ASSOCIAT 144.70 133.30 135.50
Relcap 595 540.8 546.50
ONGC 903.80 872.50 879.7
HUL 236.50 226 227.15
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
The notable gainers of big name are – Tulip IT and Nucleus software, AuroPharma, JindalSAW, Havells…etc. The reality sector and the metals were worst hit.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
The Following scrips covered in my yesterday posting: The high, low, closings of 11-05-09:
Nifty 3660.2 3534.55 3554.60
ICICIBANK 547.75 513 523.35
RIL 1928 1850.1 1861.60
REL infra 792.90 746.55 763.0
DLF 244.80 226.10 228.1
T.Steel 288.80 267.20 270.65
SAIL 127.15 118.20 120.15
JP ASSOCIAT 144.70 133.30 135.50
Relcap 595 540.8 546.50
ONGC 903.80 872.50 879.7
HUL 236.50 226 227.15
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
Monday, May 11, 2009
The crucial band……?
The counting begins this week itself even the last leg of voting is in progress. The markets will see the gyrations widely as the days running close the counting and announcement of the results. The positive news from the overseas markets could only prop up our markets but the challenge ahead of the week will be the big event of “forming the power centre with number portability” form political parties of smaller size. Now small is beautiful here for…?
The Asian market is mixed but the US performed well above 2% gains. The SGX Nifty suggesting a positive opening of 1% gains to our markets. The Nifty is close to the crucial point at 3650-60 level. The NIFTY is unlikely to hold above the 3680 level.
The Nifty is facing resistance at 3654-58 level and the support can be expected at 3571-73 and at 3541-39 level for this day.
The RIL is in the previous suggested levels. The SBI results are good despite a lower growth in the NIM but the concern for Bhat is to manage the unprecedented growth in the deposits as the Pvt. Sector bank failures in the west prompted the depositors to choose the PSU mammoth.
The SBI is good above 1375 and weak below 1347. The support exists at 1256-58 level but today it is likely to stay above 1296 level and may cross and close above the 1350 mark. In case it stays above 1350 the scrip has the potential to cross 1475 and then 1507.
The ICICI is likely to get support from SBI mood to cross the 536 mark but face resistance at 544 level.
The Relcap is good above 594 and weak below 573.
The Tata steel corus impact can be seen today. The inventory loss due to order cancellation by the consortium and the revival of the unit, fate of the employees will impact. Technically the scrip is Bull grip but the sudden developments impose pressure on the up move. So the counter may face resistance at 288 and the support is at 209-11 level once the 264 support is broken decisively.
The Govt. plans to ask ONGC to fill the loss of the OMCs may pressure this counter though the crude is ruling high above 58 dollars per barrel. So ONGC unlikely to stay above 900 mark due to this developments, even it stays not good to buy, but has good bottom support at 845-48 level and a series of reasonable supports.
The HUL bogged down by the private labels and more in future may place the stock at 202 and 194 level in future.
The Asian market is mixed but the US performed well above 2% gains. The SGX Nifty suggesting a positive opening of 1% gains to our markets. The Nifty is close to the crucial point at 3650-60 level. The NIFTY is unlikely to hold above the 3680 level.
The Nifty is facing resistance at 3654-58 level and the support can be expected at 3571-73 and at 3541-39 level for this day.
The RIL is in the previous suggested levels. The SBI results are good despite a lower growth in the NIM but the concern for Bhat is to manage the unprecedented growth in the deposits as the Pvt. Sector bank failures in the west prompted the depositors to choose the PSU mammoth.
The SBI is good above 1375 and weak below 1347. The support exists at 1256-58 level but today it is likely to stay above 1296 level and may cross and close above the 1350 mark. In case it stays above 1350 the scrip has the potential to cross 1475 and then 1507.
The ICICI is likely to get support from SBI mood to cross the 536 mark but face resistance at 544 level.
The Relcap is good above 594 and weak below 573.
The Tata steel corus impact can be seen today. The inventory loss due to order cancellation by the consortium and the revival of the unit, fate of the employees will impact. Technically the scrip is Bull grip but the sudden developments impose pressure on the up move. So the counter may face resistance at 288 and the support is at 209-11 level once the 264 support is broken decisively.
The Govt. plans to ask ONGC to fill the loss of the OMCs may pressure this counter though the crude is ruling high above 58 dollars per barrel. So ONGC unlikely to stay above 900 mark due to this developments, even it stays not good to buy, but has good bottom support at 845-48 level and a series of reasonable supports.
The HUL bogged down by the private labels and more in future may place the stock at 202 and 194 level in future.
Sunday, May 10, 2009
The pre-election rally ended..?
The strong consolidation of 3 weeks at 3332-82, Nifty took a leap to 3482 then jumped to a level of 3650 range. Nifty even touched an intraday high at 3717 level before closing the week at 3621 level. The noon-stop 9 positive weekly closing right from 6th march to day placed Nifty from 2609 to 3620 level.
The retail investors, DII and MFs who are very much cradled by the swings of 200-250 points either side at 2700. They presumed that the FII ran out of money and wanting more from the emerging markets, shorting the market at every rise and things like that kept them a side by waiting for the turn to “auspicious jump” has never happed till date but the stocks rose more than 100% from their distressed lows.
Now many started asking for a deep correction so that they can buy and hold for this kind of a rally like situation from where they can make an exit, even that won’t happen in near future. When everybody wanted to replicate the known model then how can any body “demand” for a premium?. It is as simple as that- “Not every body can afford every time to build a PALACE by each construction or even grave yards be dug every where”.
The retail investors, DII and MFs who are very much cradled by the swings of 200-250 points either side at 2700. They presumed that the FII ran out of money and wanting more from the emerging markets, shorting the market at every rise and things like that kept them a side by waiting for the turn to “auspicious jump” has never happed till date but the stocks rose more than 100% from their distressed lows.
Now many started asking for a deep correction so that they can buy and hold for this kind of a rally like situation from where they can make an exit, even that won’t happen in near future. When everybody wanted to replicate the known model then how can any body “demand” for a premium?. It is as simple as that- “Not every body can afford every time to build a PALACE by each construction or even grave yards be dug every where”.
Friday, May 08, 2009
the correction for consolidation...?
The heated markets over the week could end with tepid note with llow volumes. The stellar performance from the metal space took a beating due to profit booking from the retail investors. The Nifty has still above the support levels despite of this 64 points fall.
The shipping companies and plantation companies are in the lime light where as the software companies felt the heat.
The shipping companies and plantation companies are in the lime light where as the software companies felt the heat.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
Nifty 3711.25 3582.85 3620.70
ICICIBANK 550.9 515.15 520.75
RIL 1932 1875 1900.30
REL infra 817 756.35 768.65
DLF 525 235.65 240.65
T.Steel 302.85 280.15 282.40
SAIL 129.80 121.80 125
JP ASSOCIAT 144.35 134 142.10
I may be right or wrong, You may like it or not but “No argument with the ticker-NEVER”
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