Uncertainty is Certain…

The stock valuations are most vulnerable by their nature to the minor and major issues and to local and international issues even if they are not of much importance on the face it but influence a lot by creating turbulance in the minds of the investors, cause anxiety that refluct as "demand and supply" cause fluctuations in the price irrespective of the percentage of concern. We can easily say, “the uncertainty is certain” at the bourses each time and every time. Those who fear about uncertainty can search their souls in peace, as nothing is certain.

As expected in my earlier write up the market bounced back on bull track in 4 trading sessions.(………if the Nifty to close above 5935 with in 3 trading sessions. At the immediate level the Nifty shall not close below 5670 level to continue the bull run…….. The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma).

Now the challenge at the Nifty level is to stay above 5778-71 to register a new high and above 6400 level by the end of first week of Feb-2008. The run up in the prices of power and infra will take a back seat and the service sectors and hotels will enjoy the support of bulls along with FMGC & retail move. The network of gas transportation is the emerging sector. I have been suggesting holding in Fertliser stocks and the next big bet on banks with insurance exposure. These sectors will explode maximum followed by oil exploration and allied services.

The end of the BULLRUN for some time?.

Whether the markets are taking deep breath to settle for a long leap up move to scale new highs or this could be the end of the Bull Run? I see a steep correction like that happened in May 2005 if the Nifty to fails to close above 5935 with in 3 trading sessions. To console the brave hearts, at the immediate level Nifty shall not close below 5670 level to continue the bull run.
Incase the nifty fails to trade and close above 5885 tomorrow, it is likely that the markets likely to touch 5321-28 level and then markets need strong cues to rejuvenate the bulls.
The big boys of the market are very silent for their own reasons but the time has come that they need to infuse vital medicine to the Bulls to take on Bears. The good support of RIL at 2640-30, SBI has support at 2135-2128, ONGC has support at 1060-70, Bharti at 835-829 level and the ICICI has support at 1085-1090. Incase two or three stocks could stay above 4-5% above those support levels then the markets are for the Bulls.
The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma
With out doubt, the Small cap and Mid-cap run-up story is intact until the Nifty stays above 4865-4935 levels.

Gross & wild violation…..

Any body who live with technicals can contribute this fall is steep and wild in violating the supports. Any way the fact is the bottom is lost. The hope totally depended on the reliance, ONGC and SBI. They are very strong even at this level of correction. The bulls have the last opportunity to believe the market is a Bull market until it stays above 5175-80 levels. The markets can fluctuate with a wide range of spread for a greater consolidation as the prices have reached relatively high level.
Then the hope lies a head so long the RIL stays above 2580 at immediate support level and can even touch 2440-50 level. The ONGC got the support at 1090 and even can touch 1010-20 level. The big banking leader can touch 2020-2030 and even touch 1910-1900. The high tech ICICI can touch 1020-1010 level. The violation of the above levels can cause deep cracks that can take months to repair the bull move to regain.
So wait and see what will happen at global level and at the local level. The ray of hope lies with the support from local institutions and the deep-pocketed HNIs who are waiting for long time when the FIIs are at buying spree after the rate cut at US.

Distribute and eliminate…………..

Who will buy at higher levels?- is the question asked by many and the doubt can be answered only when some body experiences the taste of buying at the top and selling at the panic bottom and realising the situations that made/forced to do so.
“Don’t be CRAZY to chase…”, “be cautious…..,” the phrases often used but by shouting… "buy buy buying—happening every where……"..create a situation, confuse the minds of investors and make them to believe that every thing is rosy and beautiful. This is a classical effort to prepare the retail small investors to become scapegoats.

In my earlier write up cautioned the readers to think about the happenings at the bourses. The speeds at which things are happening are very new to Indian investors and are losing time, opportunity and money in the process. The game plans are designed in such a manner to eliminate the retail investor incase somebody holding good stocks at fair prices.

“The steep falls and steep rises give little time to think.”— “Stock Market” is a mind game and every step of investment shall go after through research, understanding the business and the timing of pricing the investment.
At the end of the day “Minting Money” in the “Stock Market” comes by “Buy Low- Sell High” but not by buying cheap………………

Y can’t it be…………….

The story is contrary to the current happenings at the bourses. The positive side shall go like this way….
In my earlier write up I clearly mentioned to hold positions in fertilizer stocks for decent gains that turned right. Now they doubled from the prices recommended to buy & hold. In the same manner I wrote about the investments of FIIs in our markets. They first invested huge amounts in the Reliance group. They are familiar with the Reliance group growth story than the Indian growth story. Now they are spreading their investments to other sectors with different groups.
The situationed at large caps are rather fully saturated at the price level and left with little scope for further appreciation. So the MFs, FIIs and the DIIs are left with no option but to explore new opportunities with emerging companies, though they are small to medium in size at this point in time. The flare up in prices is due to the mismatch in their size and the amount of liquid cash chasing the stock.
The negative side shall go this way….

The small caps and the medium cap stocks are now in their flare-up run at the bourses is visible but the investigative approach can show a dark side of manipulations in the game.

The story goes back to the 2005-2006, the FIIs, the MFs and the operators heavily invested in (the early bird catches the fish-but the frontliners bite the bullets in the war front) the Mid & small caps to capture the instant large gains which turned out a futile effort due to lack of liquidity due to the steep crash when the Sensex was at 12000-12500 range. The investments became dud for long two years with no moves. After a long frustration, now these people captured the up moves with vengeance.
I personally feel that the prices are sky rocketing with thin edge time to retail investors to participate in those sharp moves is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.The retail investor will now about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day only large participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. So Be cautious…………………… buy but never chase.

Nobody can stop…..

Nobody can stop or make an end to the stocks “moving”, but the question is always on the direction, at the end it surprises many. Market is the BOSS and boss is always right.

Never be regid to dictate the move either to upward or down ward, just respect it - you will be rewarded with profits.

The New Year of Indian stock market has closed with a thumps down move after 7 years on the eve of the celebration-“Happy Diwali”. The Indian stock market is left with more steam than any body could imagine. So, I personally suggested readers to go by stock specific rather than depending on the Index.

Markets have to fall to eliminate the weak hearts and the daydream manipulators. These two sections are always at the losing end at the end of the day because they place their money on weak fundamentally weak stocks but depend on momentum.

The strength of the market comes from the profits of adopted business models of the companies but not on their dripping margins. So never place your bets on the run-ups but on the sustainable earnings made by the good managements. The story is on and on but the identification of such companies…………….? Wait & watch.

Let the Indian Stock Market provide you a Happy and Prosperous New Year-2064

It can’t be stretched further….

It is a merciless killing of the “Bears” at the bourses by the Bulls and intelligently trapped the Bears in the pretext of mid-term and PM resignation……!. But the Bears could exert some pressure on the bulls to take a back seat on Friday that failed to the core by Monday. The sustained effect can be seen only when there is a reasonable selling happens on Tuesday, otherwise it is endless Bull run.

The banks are in news as the RBI credit policy and anticipated rate cut in US and at home. The credit off take has slowed considerably and the real momentum growth in stocks can put to test in future. I foresee the Bull run can become a long consolidation period- more than 6-9 months with a range of 5250-6290 at Nifty level.

Sincerely speaking the movements at the bourses put my mouth shut and the study was put to halt. The other side is that the study has to be reflected in my trading so I decided to publish in my "moneymagicbnr.blogspot.com" as TRADING TECHNIQUES link.

No “net” and out of publishing……

………….(read 15th July posting)……..As Nifty reflects 50 companies, all companies won’t rise equally, on the first phase 3% rise works out to be 1290+ and Nifty could touch 5950-6020 ranges

……read the previous post..."The current P/E of Nifty as on date is at 23.4 and the Nifty at 5211. Now the best P/E can be at 25-26. So mathematically the Nifty could touch 25.5*5211/23.4 works out to be 5679. The FII fund flow and the euphoria of chasing stocks can last for few days, later the basics will come on to the discussion table".

In my earlier posting suggested the readers to hold RCOM to sell at 725+ and Bharti above 1050+…as the levels reached, pls. Book profits in case any body holding till date.

The endless story of bull market in India is intact and one can see very good prices to their holdings in future. The corrections are to invite fresh momentum to the the market but the caution is some sectors are over valued at this point in time, ultimately that counts- No body likes to travel in a sinking boat.

High Volatility…wipe out fresh Shorts….!

The Nifty stocks are very cheap to the FIIs as the Rupee appreciated from 45 range to 39 range. The FIIs already invested in India are enjoying the benefits of their wise decision and even the new/fresh sect of FIIs are buying the stocks at almost 13-15 % less than the prices prevailed on the day, after the 50 basis points rate cut by Fed i.e from 18th Sep-07. The reports say that the FIIs have invested ($4.8+ billion) more than Rs14800/- crores since 18th to 1st Oct.

The current P/E of Nifty as on date is at 23.4 and the Nifty at 5211. Now the best P/E can be at 25-26. So mathematically the Nifty could touch 25.5*5211/23.4 works out to be 5679. The FII fund flow and the euphoria of chasing stocks can last for few days, later the basics will come on to the discussion table.

The P/E is at the 2008 earnings that were not even calculated as the Sep.-07, results are not announced but already discounted to a large extent. In case of any dampen results from the core sector then the damage can be disastrous.
Even every thing goes well then also the P/E will settle at 21+, works out Nifty to be at 4677 or P/E at 22 then the Nifty could be placed at 4899.

So, in case get exited by the current bull run and buying at higher levels can take you to carry for at least 2 years before things works out on the new earnings of 2009-2010.

Global gains can be extended…?

The indices are rallying against each other at the global level and we are also integrated. The rally can be supported by the RIL and SBI as they were lagging.
At home, the Nifty has Bulls support above 5053 level and Bears wait until 5019 level and from there Bears will have advantage.
The RIL has support at 2275-71 levels and the upper side resistance at 2326-2331. The SBI has support at 1875-71 levels and the upper side resistance at 1926-1928.The RCOM has resistance at 626 and become weak below 603, Tata Steel has support at 835-34 and good support at 825-23, the resistance at 851.
The DLF is strong above 763, stop loss at 751-53 level. The UNITECH has bottom support at 312-09.
The run-up in REL has good bottom supports at 1305-06 and Relcap has good support at 1753-56 and the longs have to be maintained. The Bull move can be accelerated in Idea above 129 and in IFC above 149. Fresh long positions in L &T can be initiated above 2895.
Those who are long in NTPC can book their profits, as the target price is close at Rs 220/-

The CRACKS & PLASTERING work ….

The Bulls are fully enjoying the days of happiness and the celebrations are being continued. The Bulls could push the Nifty to such a level that it will not fall so easily in-spite of the best efforts by the bears. The foundations at bottom are so strong that the continuation of “Bull Run” at this point in time is very much assured. But the strong numbers of the Sep-07 quarter can add value to the efforts made by the Bulls in advance other wise ?.
The power play is on and the markets are in thumps up situation to Reliance Power and its parent REL is enjoying the booty. The bulls are in charge of the Indices to scale up to new highs each time and every time.
The Monday move is a clear sign of cracks in the Bulls work but they could immediately do the plastering work to mitigate the severity of the damage. The Bears to some extent are shattered by the moves of Bulls on streets. As of now the time favours Bulls but from the US, the news flows are to be in favour of the bears and could exhaust the current Bull Run.
The strong case of Bears is their “life tonic” from the techs and their expression of inability to cope up with the rising rupee. The impending dangers in the US financial markets are cracking from the bottom and the slow down has begun beyond doubt. So the euphoria in the stocks across the globe could take a breathe for next six months as consolidation.

Never Fight?…...Just SAIL!

The history has never recorded any person win against the market with high fighting skills but just try to float while sailing.
The markets are enjoying the best days of Bull Market with euphoric support to the Indian equities. The markets steeply corrected at one point in time but recovered with the RIL up move. The huge civilization and the triumphant bull move scaling the valuations up on every day without break from the breakout from a low of 1921 to 2426 to date. The other counters are also making surprises to every body as the breakout with 30-40 % in two days that to in F&O scrips.
The Bears could exert aborted pressure in the early trade, failed to maintain through out the day. To some extent, some counters in reality sector, banks and power made some backward move. The real test to Bulls will be after expiry as the valuations were too stretched to carry along the October.
The GMR Infra del.(at 786/-) suggested can be booked tomorrow.

Settle the Scores……Valuations next!

The “Bulls and Bears” fight at the streets intensified and may lead to a disaster. The company’s valuations are based on the earnings and the future performance with a projection. But now the wild spree has become so wild that may harm the small investor- the real backbone of the stock market.
The polarization of the investment groups supporting a few companies or a sector will create grudge on the operating group either it could be the FIIs or MFs. However great potential a company/ industry has that can deliver better results but it is only an assumption and assumptions can go wrong at any point in future. For whose sake the run –up in the markets when it was absent a few days back. There was no real change in the companies earning or in the economy.
The Nifty was closed at 4494 on last Monday and today closed at 4932. The sub- prime issue was not resolved, it is simply 50 basis points cut can’t bring so much of money to our markets at this astronomical prices, then for whose sake "We are celebrating at our bourses".
Do we mean that the FIIs do not have calculators or do not know how to calculate the valuations and blindly buy at the price that is offered?.
Any way the old adage is always right- “Buy Low- Sell High”.

Wait...."Bulls and even Bears"?

The ardent Bears love to sell at high but the Bulls are also eagerly waiting to trap and make more money while the market is shining in bull grip with media attention. A classic example of RNRL and RPL moves on Friday.
The momentum favours the bulls at this point in time. So those who are long in the Nifty and the other stocks can wait till the nifty trades below the 4785 level. In case tomorrow Nifty fails to trade above 4821 level and the high could not cross 4863-69 level then prefer shorts with stop at 4876-78 level. For investors the suggestion is to buy on declines in Idea, Zeel, and VSNL as investment purpose. The Wipro, HCL tech and TCS in software, in pharma – Ranbaxy, Dr Reddy and Biocon are calls adopting KOI principle (Keep On Investing…. already suggested for ITC at 168-170 range in July).
The Day traders can find opportunities to short in the reality sector but maintain GMR Infra Del. suggested with a stop of 786/- at the acquisition price. The weakest among the Nifty are metals- Tata Steel weak below 748-49 level, Sail weak below 195/- level, Ster weak below 696 levels.

Wait....Bulls and even Bears?

The momentum favours the bulls at this point in time .So those who are long in the Nifty and the other stocks can wait till the nifty trades below the 4785 level. In case tomorrow Nifty fails to trade above 4821 level and the high could not cross 4863-69 level then prefer shorts with stop at 4876-78 level. For investor buy on declines in Idea, Zeel, and VSNL as investment pupose. The Wipro, HCL tech and TCS in software, in pharma – Ranbaxy, Dr Reddy and Biocon are calls adopting KOI principle (Keep On Investing…. already suggested for ITC at 168-170 range in July).
The Day traders can find opportunities to short in the reality sector but maintain GMR Infra Del. suggested with a stop of 786/- at the acquisition price.
The weakest among the Nifty are metals- Tata Steel weak below 748-49 level, Sail weak below 195/- level, Ster weak below 696 levels.

The re-rating in the offing……..

The markets are "re-rating the stock valuations" time and again and every time . This time also no exception to re-rate the stocks to make some are as “Market Darlings” and some are “Destitutes”. The history through some light on the market movements and the market participants understand the need to observe the change in the CHOICE.
The political developments, economy and the business environment will influence the price movements. Now the situation for the telecom industry in now a place for fierce competition and the new players (a beeline queue for licenses) are threatening the market share of the existing players. Now the top two players Bharti and RCOM are fully valued at this point in time. The Idea has some room left for price appreciation but the others will survive with +5 % up side and – 20 to 25% on down side.
The power sector also reached a stage where there are more proposals than the start up of work at the ground. The construction work will take 3-4 years for each project and the prices zoomed on the hopes of applications and approvals. In India, the bureaucratic hurdles and political mileage of the oppositions in encouraging a protest is clearly visible in POSCO and Mittal Steel projects. The SEZ policy was well written on the papers than on the implementation. So beware of the negative news that favours the bears.
Now the momentum is in favour of the bulls and likely to stay till the expiry. The fresh buying in the hot stocks of today can become monuments for future.
Try to identify those stocks that can yield better margins in their balance sheets rather than following the trend assuming that it will continue in future also. Just recollect the fate of Sugar industry and remember the fate of Softwares.
"Think differently" doesn’t mean to be eccentric. Try to analyse the history, understand the present and Act for the Future. Good Luck.

THE MOVE BEYOND…………

The markets made a blow out move after crossing the all time high at 4640 level- a nonstop journey to 4850. The word of caution at this point is the markets move up but with selective scrips participating the move. When we compare the scrips performance with the Nifty from the previous high to this level, there are very few stocks that advanced, but the Nifty crossed the high with “The RELIANCE group”. The Ambanis only enjoyed- as a matter of fact it could be the real cause of worry. A negative thinking can pose a question that “Is this group that represents the whole economy?”. If your answer is ‘Big No’ then there is something cooking.

But the other side of the story is colourful when we consider the past experience of the FIIs. In the global melt down that happened last year, the FIIs were trapped in the illiquid counters. The bitter experience due to illiquid counters and small companies kept them away from choosing them. The same story continued with the case of Sugar stocks, tea stocks and the other commodity & under performing sectors. The lessons learnt are costly and nightmare haunts them till date. So they are focusing and patronizing those groups that assure them consistent returns.
The FIIs are pumping money in the hot sectors with sound management. In the same energy sector, ONGC is kneeling down at RIL, REL is a high fly where as the NTPC, CESC and other power companies seeking fund support. The RCOM is jubilant where as the other MTNL and VSNL are surviving. The RNRL and RIIL are zooming where as others scouting for buyers.
The story is as simple as that- the real test for INDIAN stock market is the domestic FIs, the MFs and the venture capital funds shall come forward to encourage the best management groups to flourish along with the investors.

At striking distance….?

As posted on 15th July-07 titled…. The “Expansion-Extended”-global integration, clearly mentioned that the markets are likely to enjoy the real boom and likely to test new highs every time. (…Pls. read the full text).
…….Even if we go by the P/E ratio rule, the current P/E works out to be 21.63 at 4509 and the historical experience used as a measure to extrapolate, the low P/E at 17-18 and high at 29-30 times. Even if there was no surprises in the growth in the earnings, the rule of “averages” helps to arrive P/E @ 17.5+29.5= 23.5, on a conservative basis Nifty could touch 4509*23.5/21.6 works out to be 4900+.

It is those who win the battle are those who are determined to win. The market provides opportunity to every one those who understand it.

The world is celebrating….

The gains made yesterday are intact and indices are advancing for more gains. The long-term growth story of India is bright and improving day after day as the world events unfolding for our gains. As they loose, we stand to gain on our educated youthful population strength, the long coastline for exploration, large tracks of mineral rich forest covered hills and never the less barren lands for plantations to generate bio-fuels. In short every thing is rosy as the virgin unexploited resource reserves are blessing us.
But at the stock market, day-to-day fluctuations are common and tend to behave on the demand-supply principle. So the markets are likely to open high but see some profit booking in the stocks. The Relcap, Kotak Bank, Reliance energy and Aban are ripe for correction along with the other banking lot.The metals are buoyant and can advance in future, a correction is an opportunity to buy in SAIL, Hindalco. The techs may get some relief rally. When every body is celebrating, Pharma sector healing the wounds. The auto sector is likely to correct after the Sep. quarter results.

Bears weep....WIPED out…?

The remarkable rally occurred in the Indian stock market with the positive global cues. The splendid response to the Fed rate cut by the markets is beyond my expectation. I am bullish as a whole but expected a small correction before it could test new high (pls. read earlier posts). The counters except Reliance, rest are waiting to cross their high resistance levels. But the fabulous move by RIL along with the banks like HDFC,HDFC bank, ICICI, SBI and the heavy weights like ONGC, Bharti, RCOM, Infosys, TCS, Tata Steel, SAIL and many more added fuel to the fire. The Sugars made a come back on the news of Ethanol usage and GoI support to the recovery of the industry.
I expected more room in the reality sector, sugessted for delivery especially in DLF (first-3/9/07)after it crossed 603 and asked to reenter at 618 (6/9/07) and again buy at 640 levels ( again third time- 17/9/07) that came yesterday to 643 and today simply 12% gain at Rs 720/-.
The new high can take the fresh journey from here as the bottom support was made at 4450 – 4503 levels for 10 trading sessions. The all time highs are in RIL, RPL, IPCL, REL, HDFC, HDFC bank, ABB, BHEL, Tata Steel, SAIL Sterlite and Grasim.

FED feeds - boost to BULLS!

THE WORLD IS JUBILIANT OVER THE Fed rate cut by 50 basis points. The indices are trading by 2-3% surge in their valuations. The yester day move in our markets is a clear anticipated low risk high profit signal. Today the markets are likely to open above 4585 and may close above 4606 and high may cross 4618-21 resistance level.

The best bets are in the banking sector of medium stocks like Vijaya bank, DCB, YES bank and PFC as in news. The softwares likely to participate as a recovery mode and in anticipation of Insurance BPO business in the next 3-5 years. The RCOM has support at 535, RIL support at 2039-41, ONGC support at 835-36, SBI support at 1681-83 and ICICI has support at 916-18 level. The software are fresh to participate in the rally as Sataym has support at 421, Infy at 1801-03, TCS above 1006 and Wipro good above 453. The volumes in the recent four trading sessions can through some light on the market operations.

Early bird catches the fish but being late u r sure of the market movement- balance accordingly that suits u r style of trading. For swing & Day traders, there is nothing right as short or long to make money but mint money from the movements. One may have either “up or down” view on market but ultimately shall respect the market movement.

The Bears lost the day but….

The Bulls could trap the Bears by bringing down the Nifty in the early trades and the Nifty took U- turn from 4481 level. The run-up to cross the resistance at 4506-08 level can be observed in the chart. This is to make the Bears to take a back step and cover the shorts made by the weak hearts. Today’s move is clearly to eliminate the previous two days shorts. The technical levels though favour the bulls at this point in time but not a good place to carry the deliveries for a longer period.
I am supporting the bears as most of the counters are saturated and hanging around those levels as the Nifty is not going any where for the last one week. These behaviors can be a consolidate move at higher level but the level of operation doesn’t support the argument. Tomorrow, the Nifty opening above 4563 and the low should be above 4520-23 level, shall trade above 4569 level for an hour can be considered as a good sign as the bottom building happed for a big move along with RIL above 2063 level and SBI above 1706. The L&T shall trade above 2640, BHEL shall trade above 1935, Bharti above 853 to make this move a favourable attempt made by Bulls to create a landmark in the Nifty.

The crucial move….

As posted yesterday, RPL high touched 131.65 and dropped to 129 low, the suggestion valid till it crosses 131.65. RCOM got resistance at 546.8, SBI touched high at 1675, Tata steel touched high at 714.9. The RIL dropped to 2020 level when lost support at 2035.(..read.. RPL has resistance at 131.65 and could move to get support at 123-122 level.)
The market has moved below the support level can bring joy to bears. Those who want to short shall check the Nifty resistance at 4521-23 and low shall be less than 4485-87.If Nifty trades below 4463 a steep fall is expected (on any given day). The RIL has resistance at 2039-41 (above 2045 strong), SBI has resistance at 1663, RCOM resistance at 539-41 Tata Steel resistance at 711-09.
In case of bull move GMR good for delivery above 786 and stop-loss at 773-71 level. Nifty trades above 4508-09, favours bulls buying opportunities in Punj Lloyd (buy above 291-stop loss at 288-87), NTPC- buy above 183-stop loss at 178.

Move on U R own…

The markets are de-coupling to re-couple after US Fed meet. The US markets are on their top in spite of their Sub-Prime issue. The question at this hour is "How can they..?". The markets manage themselves to move up or down on any issue. Markets never move in rational manner but surprise the other/counter part- it could be Bull or Bear. Markets seldom follow "Logic" but to understand the move one should have "Logic".
The Nifty is facing immediate resistance at 4526-31 levels, likely to see selling pressure below 4493-91 levels. The Nifty is strong and favours bulls above 4509 and below 4500 bears gain strength. The Nifty stocks are getting diminishing investor support is a cause of concern. The RIL has resistance at 2045-48 level, SBI at 1669-71, RCOM at 548-49 and Tata steel at 716-18. The shorts are safe in RIL below 2035 stop-loss at 2046. Buy Bharti above 848-49 stop-loss at 839.
The Indian Markets are likely to wait for the Fed. outcome for a day or two. The realty stocks have more room to surge up side in future but the short-term looks at correction. The DLF may test 640, UNITECH may touch 259-261 levels. The RPL has resistance at 131.65 and could move to get support at 123-122 level. Incase GMR trades above 796 buy with a stop loss of 783 for decent gains.

A good start…ended?.

The world indices are running on green turf in spite of sub-prime hurdles. The Indian markets are waiting for the break out for up side. The positive are intact but the odd favouring bears are increasing day by day. The markets cannot continue to run on weak economic data and the confused political state of affairs either it could be “Ram or 123”.

The break down is due and waiting for the trigger. The markets here are likely to be positive so long Nifty stays above 4509 level and can wait for some time in green before a real journey takes place below 4481 level. Incase ONGC fails to trade above 845 level, RIL fails to trade above 2045 level and ICICI fails to trade above 903 then the markets correct deeply as the weight of its own will become heavy to hold above those levels.

THE DECISIVE MOVE…..

In my previous post (7-9-07) titled “Surprise to many…. The Nifty has made a good move by building the bottom and likely that could consolidate between 4353-4550 level for 10-12 trading sessions before it could test new high in future.

The markets took a decisive move today to close above 4526 level from the range bound actions are being performed for some time. The NIFTY-4359 came on 30th Aug and took 11 trading days till date and Nifty made a decent close above the resistance level. The real test for NIFTY is to open above 4556-59 level and should try to pierce the resistance of 4573-71 level in the first hour of the trade. But this can become a solace to bull so that the bears get fear in their spine to short heavily. As a strategy, the Bulls won’t take the Nifty to new highs in this run as that move could put more loads to carry the cost of buying at higher levels. So Nifty likely to retrace to 4380 level and provide excellent buying opportunities to investors.

the First posting Doubled!

Buy" SALORA INTERNATIONAL" - stock to double in six months. I HAVE POSTED ON 25th APRIL AS A TOKEN POSTING WHEN I FIRST DECIDED TO PUBLISH MY STUDY IN A BLOG. Once again I request the viewers to post their experiences and suggestions through " comments". All of us carry various experinces while taking investment decisions in the market that can be very useful to the others.

Consolidation or Distribution

As posted earlier on 20-07-07, the UNITECH will be included in the Nifty replacing IPCL. In my earlier posts suggested to buy DLF….As suggested, those who are long in DLF above 603 may book profits and re-enter at 618 level. In future it is very likely that the Relcap will be included replacing MTNL or VSNL.

As posted yesterday, the RIL traded above 1996 but the Nifty could not hold above 4509. As suggested in the morning post, the RCOM got resistance at 548 and Bharti at 855.

The markets are just floating around 4486-4525 levels and the mid caps are running fast than their piers. The markets likely to correct incase it fails to move 4525 with in two trading sessions. There are signs of economy slowing down and the external influences put pressure on the rise.

Mixed across…

The markets are waiting for the Fed rate cut and boost to financial markets in US. The markets in INDIA are strong but we are integrated with world economy. So we rise every time on a given opportunity as well we bow to the external pressures.
The Nifty is strong so long it trades above 4461 and the RIL trades above 1961. Unless ONGC trades above 845, the Nifty cannot cross the new high.
In case Nifty trades above 4509 and the RIL trades above 1996, then the market is strong other wise the Nifty will touch 4439 level. The RCOM, RIL, Bharti are weak likely to bring the Nifty to lower levels. RIL has resistance at 1996-98 level, RCOM at 546-48 and Bharti at 856-53 level.
The Nifty is strong above 4486-89 level and there could be some short covering in techs to bring higher levels for more shorts to happen. Don’t buy techs unless Infy trades above 1925, Satyam above 463, TCS above 1083, Wipro above 483-85 levels.

No violation either……

As posted, the markets opened above 4526 in the opening and the resistance on the high could not be crossed but at the end got support at 4486 level.

The RIL could touch 2008+ but failed to hold above 1993-91 level. The mid cap gainers are more than the frontline stocks to move the index. The tata steel made an excellent move above 693 to touch 711+. The smaller banks are favoured than the top tier. The ONGC, Bharti and RCOM non-cooperation put pressure on the index to hold on the opening levels. The SBI’s south journey coupled with ONGC, RCOM, Bharti and the darling draggers of the Nifty (techs) spoiled the bulls enthusiasm.

This move made to move-up ….

The Nifty got support at the 4453 level as it was earlier also tested on Monday, 3rd Sep.
The bulls are successful in forcing the bears to cover their shorts made in the heavy weights like RIL, SBI, Tata Steel, Sail, ITC and RPL along with Longs supports in the power lot.
The real test for the bulls lies in carrying the move forward from tomorrow, as there would an extra pressure on their shoulders to lure the bears and retail investors to take positions. The weak point is RIL could not comfortably trade above 1989-91 level and SBI above 1649-51 level.
The Nifty has to cross 4526 in the early morning with “Gap up trade” and should cross the high of 4549-4553 with low above 4486. To satisfy the above condition ONGC and Bharti and RCOM shall trade in positive with 1-2% gains.

Blame us or US….

The crisis unfolding on many fronts in US, this times the “Job Data”. Now the crisis of crude hanging at $75-76 could shoot out beyond $85 per barrel. The decoupling with international market all the time is not possible but this fall is expected even there were good global cues.
As posted on Friday, the Nifty started its downward move once the big boy RIL closed at 1963. The Nifty could test 4331-35 ranges in this week as the threats due to the 11th September challenge to US and the fears emerge due to the terrorist warnings. Don’t get panic even if the Nifty touches 4280 level or even 4228-26 range in pressure. The best buying opportunities emerge at such levels.

The Nifty could get support at 4222-26 level as the first primary support. The RIL gets support at 1936-35 level. SBI gets support at 1563-59 level and RCOM get support at 520 level and at 506-08. The Tata Steel has support at 661-59 level and Sail support at 158-59 level.

The fall is a threat to traders and an opportunity to investors. So this time don’t forget take delivery of IDBI at 118-119 level, Ranbaxy at 376-72, ITC at 163-61, HUL at 203-199 and NTPC at 163-61 level. The long term players can take this fall to invest in Wipro, Sterlite, DLF, Jet, Tata Motors, M&M, Idea, Bharti and RCOM- could give decent returns for those whose doesn't churn very time.

Surprise to many….

The Nifty made an undeterred up move slowly but steadily. The close above 4515 is a positive move with consolidation. The deliveries need to be checked once the Nifty trades below 4223.
The yesterday move came with the support of ITC, HUL, ICICI, SBI and Reliance leading the up move hand in hand with REL, Tata Power and ABB. The autos made their contribution to the journey. The Nifty has made a good move by building the bottom and likely that could consolidate between 4353-4550 level for 10-12 trading sessions before it could test new high in future.

For today, The RIL may correct after touching 2006-03 level and may close at 1963-68 level could become a sign of down turn while consolidating. The RCOM and GSFC are in news.

The RIL has support at 1976-73, RCOM has support at 535-33, Bharti has support at 829-26, Tata Steel has support at 683-85 levels. The day trades can shorts in IDFC below 131 and ICICI below 916. The techs likely to move and support the Nifty in the early trades.

Pause on the cards…….

The Nifty is likely to take pause in the no-stop up move run over 2 weeks. The stocks that attracted the bulls attention reached to a level where the new investors finding it difficult to enter. So it is likely that the Nifty may correct at least by 150 points.
The RIL has resistance at 1975-79 level and may find support at 1820-26 level, the ONGC has more space on the upper side so long it maintains above 809. The upper side capped for RCOM at 549-53 level and likely to touch 501-496 level. The SBI has resistance at 1596-1602 level and find good support at 1520-16 level. The very good support for SBI at 1440 level and in case it breaches then the whole market favours bears, then NIFTY will test new lows at 3860, next at 3680-83 levels that came in Oct-2006.
For today the Nifty is likely to open below the support level of 4463-61 and has support at 4420 as first and the best at 4393-96 level. The RIL has support 1912-16 level and SBI has support at 1565, next at 1551-53 level. The Bharti and RCOM are likely to correct- RCOM has support at 521-18, Bharti at 829-26 and the good support at 805-09 level.The GMR has good support at 773-71 level but good to buy at 721-23 level for decent gains.
As suggested, those who are long in DLF above 603 may book profits and re-enter at 618 level. The IDBI has phenomenal run from 105 to 136 and Idea from 105 to 124 can book their profits ( read earlier posts).

The range bound & Global cues …

The influence of US markets and the importance of global cues reflected once again on Indian market. The US holiday brought stand still in the movements of other markets and the Sub-prime devil is sub-due without many headlines.
The Nifty just crossed to 4501 but did not trade above 4496 level and just touched 4460 but did not trade below made all the difference. The range bound move restricted the scrips and Nifty to touch the anticipated levels but likely to touch tomorrow. As posted, SBI did not cross 1621, RCOM stooped at 450 level and Tata Steel capped at 699 level.
As expected, the NTPC slide to 180 level and the techs tried to surpass their immediate resistance levels. The DLF and Unitech made good moves and now DLF has become an indicator – a fall below 589 is an indication of weakness in the whole market.

The recovery rally may…..

As posted yesterday Nifty high at 4490.55, DLF gave good returns once crossed 603, then touched 613 and Tata Steel got resistance at 702.5. The GMR did not trade above the resistance 820 but RCOM stop-loss triggered as it touched 550 for those made shorts in the first hour.
The markets continued the upward journey due to the 15 new scrips added in F&O segment. The scrips rallied more than 25% from the announcement. Now those continued to hold NTPC from 165 can book profits by 50% and the rest can be sold at 205-210 range. The NTPC is going to be in Nifty from the 4th quarter of this month so the fund buying and Nuclear power related bull support.
Today the bulls may feel the heat of bear pressure as the global cues favor them. The Nifty is strong above 4426 for delivery candidates, for traders short Nifty below 4481 (at cash levels) stop-loss 4493 incase Nifty failed to cross the high of 4496-98 and low registered below 4463. To support the above condition, RIL shall have high below 1968-69. The RCOM has resistance at 453, Tata Steel at 706-08, SBI has resistance at 1621. Readers might have observed that Satyam failed to cross 453 resistance for the last 3 trading sessions and Infy fail to trade above 1863-65 level. The Nifty likely to touch 4420-4423 range as first support and 4393-91 is a good support for this day.

Consolidation to cross HIGH!

The Nifty has made a sterling move on Friday. It stayed above 4420 level through out the day. As posted…… (In case Nifty trades above 4393-96 level no shorts but long in Tata Steel, Ranbaxy, NTPC above 165 Stop loss at 162.85. The Satyam good above 453, infy above 1863 and wipro above 473-71). The Tata Stell, Ranbaxy and NTPC gave good returns. NTPC low is 165.7 and Satyam did not cross 453, Infty did not trade above 1863 but Wipro crossed 473 and touched 488+ level.
The challenge is whether we can cross the new high in this run?. It is unlikely to happen, as the top performers except RIL are not in the momentum as they were earlier. As expected earlier, the Nifty has good support at 4235-50 level and very good support at 4140 level.
For today, so long the Nifty trades above 4420, the bulls enjoy and softwares get support. The infras will advace further with GMR- good above 820, DLF- above 603 stop at 596. In case Nifty fail to cross 4489-91 level and low below 4439 then try shorts in RCOM below 443-resistance at 548-49, Tata Steel resistance at 703-06, SBI resistance at 1604-06, ICICI trades below 878 stop at 888.

The cues favour the bulls!

The world indices favour but the Indian markets reached critical level for a small correction that can back to 4235 level.
The RIL has resistance 1906-08, SBI has resistance at 1588-93 level, RCOM at 539-41, Tata steel has resistance at 676-73 level.
The Nifty likely to open below 4398 level and low shall be below 4371 level, if the low below 4363 bears run the day. In case Nifty trades above 4393-96 level no shorts but long in Tata Steel, Ranbaxy, NTPC above 165 Stop loss at 162.85. The Satyam good above 453, infy above 1863 and wipro above 473-71.

Techs in the Making of Sugar Stocks!

The roll over is good for Sep-07 and the Nifty crossed 4350 comfortably and maintained the up move to 4223+. (Pls. read earlier post…... In case Nifty retraces from 4365 without touching 4425-28 then the bears celebrate in advance for a deep correction). So bears have to wait for some time….
The good days are exhausted for the techs to rule the Indian Stock markets and the golden days are over to influence the Indices any more. They can invite more troubles than sweet news. The future is becoming bleak to dark as the days passes and days ahead. The future quarterly results are likely to see more foul cry on the issues that emerge continuously and likely to see their fate as the Sugar industry is enjoying now.
The time frame can be 5-6 quarters from now. The valuations enjoyed are stagnant and the future P/E ratio will be adjusted to 8-12. The more they diversify, greater the safety in running the business. The top managements have already identified the trouble and preparing to combat the imminent adversities.

F&O closure made the difference

As posted in the morning, the Nifty got good support at 4226, RIL got support at 1845 and ICICI got the support 841 as identified in the morning. The RCOM did not trade below 505 but SBI and Tata Steel opened well above their support levels.
There was no surprise with the de-linking move of the Indian markets as the expiry of the August series scheduled for tomorrow. The markets likely to be choppy and the moves could be wild for tomorrow.
The investors in Tata Steel can book their profits tomorrow those who continued their longs as suggested (earlier post-.."The metal space may correct but Tata Steel has the potential to cross 638 if it trades above 603").

ADRs in “Red”, Spreads to Indices!

No surprise as the rally cannot be sustained on a weak foundation so the world is taking the profits and the cause is a known factor-SUB-PRIME.
The Nifty likely to open below 4285 and can get support at 4245-48 at first level and may get strong support at 4221-18 level. The RIL has support at1846-48 level, SBI at 1493-98 level, ICICI at 841-43, the best at 822-23 level. The Tata steel has support at 581-83 and the good support at 566-63, RCOM likely to trade below 500.

The overall market will be in red and the right opportunity to buy may emerge tomorrow once the profit booking being absorbed.

The bottom building exercise!

The Nifty took support at 4280 as thought the closing would be, this helped Nifty to close above 4320 which is very much needed at this hour to threaten the bears. So the tomorrow move will make a clear difference on which side the Nifty is ready to go.
The RIL has made a stellar move by crossing 1863 and reached 1890, this saved the debacle in spite of ICICI’s negative move. In the steel sector Sail moved up. As expected, BHEL closed in red and L&T stayed in a subdued move but they stayed in positive as the Nifty stayed in positive against the expected 20 pts. down move. The SBI stayed almost the entire day above 1545 but could not trade above 1565 a necessary condition for an up move to touch 1640+.The Index heavy weight scrips moved almost 10-15% from their lows. It is very likely that the profit booking is in the offing. But that does not change the course of upward journey made from 4000.
So long the ICICI stays above 815-18, SBI above 1448-51, Bharti stays above 805-06 and RIL above 1741-45. The Nifty has strong support above 4108-10 until then the bulls strength won’t wane away.

World is flat to 50:50

The POWER play is on at Indian political adjustments by constituting a committee on 123 Nuclear deal. The committee can consume enough time to save the Left and Left can say, “Right go a head” after some time. This can be expected to take 6-12 months as postponement.
The situation at the world markets is flat with negative bias. The ADRs also in red with 1% and some are in green. The markets under performed with 50-60 points at Nifty, it lost on political turmoil.
The day can be expected to open with 4315-18, incase Nifty failed to cross 4325 then the selling pressure comes at the first hour. The RIL has to cross 1863-65 on the back of the positive news on “Gas Pricing”. The metal space may correct but Tata Steel has the potential to cross 638 if it trades above 603. The BHEL and L&T may see 2% correction, so it is very likely that the Nifty may close at 4281-79 level. The Banks has room for further upward and the support likely to continue up to Sep-07 results.

A positive step forward!

As posted the Nifty opened above 4235, crossed 4263 and the short covering can be seen when reached 4295-4306 range and touched a high of 4310.The RIL in the morning session did not cross 1815 but after noon touched 1840 and RCOM crossed 525. The 1485 resistance for SBI has become support today and rallied there after crossing 1545 to 1560+. The ICICI crossed 863 and stopped at the resistance level at 888.
Today’s move helped bulls to threaten the bears to cover their recent shorts made below 4075 but the real challenge a head to carry the up-move above 4379-85 levels. The offloads due to lower level deliveries and selling pressure of bears move to many frontline stocks come when the Nifty crosses 4365.
The Nifty likely to move for 10 trading days between 4100-4440 before it make a fresh bid to cross the all time high. In case Nifty retraces from 4365 without touching 4425-28 then the bears celebrate in advance for a deep correction.

The world is Positive!

The world indices are running on bulls support. The positive cues can be extended to India also. The expiry of August will bring some volatility more than the normal.
The Nifty has recovered 190 points from the low when it lost 645 points from the highs. The sub-prime issue has effected more than rest of the world. Is there any indication emerging?. The internal political turmoil is subdued but not resolved, so the markets are looking for strong commitment from the Govt.
The stocks that lost most of their value in the recent past are infrastructure & reality sector and the metals space. The power sector and the equipment manufacturers recovered all loses made during the fall, where the cement sector out-performed the rest to date from the closing of July expiry. The techs and the Bank stocks moderately recovered from the damage. The telecom giants not favoured as they used to enjoy. Till date, as the price recovery is an indication then the bulls are supporting the power and the fertiliser stocks than the media and the telecom. The Pharma and the auto are now building the bottom support and very likely that they may participate from here.

The positives @ critical levels!

The Nifty could likely to cross 4385-92 range by the expiry of August month. The strength is not seen in the move but no threat to bottom support. The growth story becomes rosy only when Nifty opens above 4235 and cross 4263 level to see the short covering support. As a matter of fact, Nifty shall trade above 4295-4306 levels as early as possible to see a good support from the bear covering and buoyant move from bulls to up move.
The RIL is facing considerable resistance at 1800 level in-spite of the good news from the company. The RIL shall not trade below 1735 to see the up move continued and RIL should cross 1815 level in two trading sessions to avoid the bears on slaughter. The ICICI and SBI shall trade above 863-69 and 1485-93 levels for a safe Nifty positive move. The rest will follow the leaders as Bharti will cross 890 level and RCOM cross 518-21 level.

Is the worst OVER?

The investors in India are living with most terrible days in the past 25 days and likely to live in the dreadful future until Sep-07 results. The nightmares are very likely to continue unless the Nifty trades above 4280-85 levels and the low shall not touch 4145 level in case of such positive move. The Nifty touching new high at this point in time looks very bleak but sure it crosses in Jan-March, 2008.
The sectors are becoming weak day by day and day after day due to sub-prime and local political uncertainties. The left wants the people should forget the unpleasant, untimely uproar they have created. Most of the scrips are out of bull grip and now the damage erased the chances to cross the new high. It needs to re-look at the current valuations in the light of future growth prospects and the policy liberalizations. In case the 123-Nuclear fails to gets clearance from political hurdles, it is very unlikely that the further FII in-flow will be at lower pace and our markets dry up in 6-9 months period that reflects with lack-luster stock performance.
The above condition is bearing 15-20% to happen; the opportunity to invest in India for the overseas firms is the heaven that they can least afford to loose.
The strengths of India are many to elaborate; the ever increasing educated youth and the wide geographical spread with large coastline, forests and mineral rich hills coverage are the unexplored jewels of India that can absorb several FIIs, huge amount of Investments with assured return on capital. So those who have the perspective investment horizon of 3 years can reap lots of appreciation in their investments. But the traders who are long may need to work out their cost in this turmoil season.
No net connection for last 3 days. Stock specific levels tomorrow.

Poly-tricks Play now?

As posted Nifty failed to open above 4235, in fact high could not cross 4239 is a weak signal and drifted as the time reaches to closing.
The stocks are not chased but are available at throwaway prices. When the street dogs bark on stocks up move the retail investor wakes up and wait until the wealth ruins to dust in a fall market. The important noticeable happening in the stock market is “ the retail investor is the last person to enter in a bull move and the final lot to exit in a bear move”. The markets are finding the bottoms for support. So wait till the formation takes place or buy in 20%, 30% and 40% for every 100 points fall for Nifty. The 10% will be the reserve for buying in a bull move after the second level of purchased price crossed.
For today, the Nifty shall not trade below 4021-18 levels to take a bear trap up move. The Bhel has support at 1541 and Bharti at 783-86 level, L&T at 2151-53 level. The RIL bottom has support at 1721-23, ONGC good for long above 809, ICICI has support at 811-09 and SBI has support at 1414-1416 and shall not breach 1380 level for a market come back immediately. Every-body might have forgot Idea, has support at 103-05 and V.G. support at 96-98 range, don’t forget to take delivery.

The bottoms need support?

As posted, the Nifty neither could cross 4265 nor could trade above 4235. This is not a bad sign but need some strength to go up in future. The RIL could stay above 1781, Bharti above 821 but the low of ONGC and RCOM need to be improved.
The Govt. is in dilemma but posing brave face to the press. The Left parties are serious because they have to do their opposing and supporting job.
The US markets are consolidating; Asian markets are trading in Green. We are likely to open high and may continue the journey.
The stocks need to advance further so that the bottom support will be strong to face greater shocks. The Nifty has to cross 4375 level as early as possible.
Today Nifty has to open above 4235 level and high shall cross 4279 to believe the up. The RIL has to cross 1840 and trade above 1826.
The supports to RCOM at 493, Tata Steel at 563, RIL at 1791, ONGC at 809, Bhart at 820 and for BHEL 1541-45 levels. The software stocks may cover their losses today and Satyam may cross 446-48 level and Wipro may cross 484 level.
On 21st July posted about the Fertiliser stocks likely to move further and even now they are cheap if one can wait for 6 months.

Now long but how LONG?.

For today the long is good for the traders but the question is how long longs are valid in this market and that to at this critical time of political turmoil. No doubt INDIA opens for investment destination for the world but the hiccups has to be accepted.
The Nifty is likely to face resistance at 4332-35 level and at 4390-4385 levels as the things stands for now.
The left has gone far more distance than they can come easily to save their face. Now Cong. has to accept the responsibility to save them. Both parties know that they are sailing in the same boat but seats are placed at far end. So any damage from this situation can sink them, but trying to draw attention but yield no concrete results.
The good picks for next 6 months can come only when Nifty trades above 4265 and low above 4239, until then buy and sell. The scrips also has to form good bottom- RIL trades above good supports level 1685, better if it could trade above 1773-71 level; Bharti has to trade above 821, low above 809; ONGC above 839 low above 821; RCOM has to trade above 521 and low above 506. The scrips were un-ethically battered during the previous 10 trading sessions. So it takes even 6-8 trading sessions before they come into a systematic movement.

Now what to buy?

Any use to buy at these levels is the question to be asked at this critical juncture?. The stock market is a such a beautiful place where it accommodates all sorts of people irrespective of their participation…Bulls, Bears, Day-traders, Swing-traders, Investors, Riggers, Manipulators, above all the Market Operators and the Regulators in its journey either up or down.

In my earlier post on 20-07-07 suggested the sectors and the stocks to buy with a title “The up-move unlimited!…The markets world over inching up day after day despite of some concerns and negative views and cautious suggestions from the brokerage houses.
The Nifty has crossed the 4480-4520 range as posted earlier, now the suggestion is stay invested with the remaining balance in the del. of Idea, Bharti, Zeel, Ster, IDBI and IDFC. In case of compulsive nature to take del. try in Ranbaxy, L&T and Dabur. The FMCG move could in the offing as the retailers increasing their space rapidly. It is very likely that DLF and UNITECH will be included in the NIFTY by next quarter. So accumulate in small lots and gain from the move. The early initiatives from the KPO and CRAMS likely to benefit India and the nuclear deal can make a lot of change in the valuations of the equipment manufactures like BHEL, ABB, Punj Lloyd. The NTPC, REL and Tata power will benefit, as they are leaders in power generation. The above companies can be accumulated, and the fall becomes a big opportunity.

The Nifty has resistance at 4583-89 range, in case it trades below 4555-4551, bears will have the advantage. The RIL may get selling pressure if it fails to trade above 1901-03 in the first half an hour and the low is below 1885. The run-up in banks likely to continue incase SBI trades above 1589-91 and ICICI above 993. Those who are holding the Idea del from 118 can book profits at 135 as suggested. The Bharti del holders can wait until it stays above 873-71. Incase persons long in Nifty can prune their positions by 50%.

So start buying with a perspective of 6 months in mind and reap the full benifts of investments.

The stock markets are not for BULLS only...?

I am attaching this to recapitulate the anticipation made in advance to make a clear decision in days to come....
In my earlier posting titled-----“The need to press panic button?…. The answer is certainly “no”. The technical analysts, the viewers of this blog might now that the fall could be massive and the levels expected yet to come. So why this cry?- the answer could be the speed and steep fall occurred without warning to many but not to the readers as I clearly stated on The bears are making in………roads?.… The volatility is not because of the expiry of the July but the preparation for a deep cut on the face of bulls by the bears.

As posted, RIL came to 1791, we expected 1785, ITC in bear grip until it trades below 169.
No need to get panic until RIL trades above 1711-09, SBI trades above 1435-39, RCOM trades above 491, Tata steel trades above 585 and Bharti trades above 806-09 levels. So wait for the right opportunity and start accumulating in the blue chips”.

The fall can become an oppertunity and can accumulate in small lots as the Nifty is likely to touch 4075 level as expected earlier. The markets are influenced by external forces but they live short period but OUR ECONOMY & PERFORMANCE that matters at the end of the day.
So those who believe that our economy can do well, can start buying blue chips with special focus on emerging sectors.

Who is sick and who is paying the bills?

The US is facing the problems of Sub-prime sickness and hospitalized for its own reasons. But unfortunately the world is worried over the emperor’s ill health and the kings are paying the hospital bills.
The Indian economy is intact and the emerging markets growth was not questioned but the indices are falling because of the “Global Economy” tag.
The markets will realize soon and chase the stocks in INDIA. But the damage is done and the heart attacks are not accounted as of now every body is looking through some other person’s spectacles. At the end of the day the question is “who is sick and who is paying the hospital bills”.

No Green, All Red?

The world is now under tremendous pressures on Sub-prime issue. Renowned companies involved and struggling to save their face in spite of having experts of top quality failed to save them.
Anyway the number game is to live so long the market lives. The Nifty is likely to open below the support level 4330 and could even touch mid June levels of 4140 immediately. The rampage is a carry forward effect; it should recover fast before it could consolidate further. To such effect, Nifty should trade above 4320 level with 4-5 trading sessions. The RIL has good support at 1792, SBI has good support at 1540-45, ONGC has good support at 833-34, Bharati has good support at829-30, Infy has good support at 1920-35, TCS has good support at 1093-96, Satyam has good support at 459-61, Wipro has good support at 462-59, Tata steel has good support at 620-23, Sail has good support at 139 level NTPC has good support at 161-63, ITC has good support at 158-59 levels.
In case SBI trades below 1485, the market is under severe bear pressure, in that case it should trade above 1540.

Worries about to widen in future?

The Sub-prime issue is not surfaced days back but before two months. The indices climbed high and to higher level even after the news broke. It is now became an issue to brought the prices down and cause anxiety in the minds of the investors. The game plan can be easily understood- the stock prices of mid caps and selective large caps whose upward is not warranted but moved to lure the weak hands to participate. Now every body is talking that the prices are mouth watering but more pain is left as the indices can correct up to 30-40%. Just think about these statements aired and are for whose sake?.
All the leading brokerage houses, MFs and FIIs have their research teams to study the situation but the poor retail investors lack the strength but driven. So one can understand the love and the helping nature of the wealthy and deep-pocketed market operators. One statement, once again “If you are an investor the fall will become an opportunity, otherwise a wiper”.

Governments Infused the Oxygen?

The markets really looking for the Global cues but bears waging their best battle to win, so that they even bring the markets in to bear grip. The Friday up move from lows and to days work is to save the day while waiting to see more unfolds from the Sub-Prime.
I think the markets will fall by its own wait unless bulls take charge of the situation to see Nifty trade above 4401-03 level in the morning first hour. So long Nifty trade below 4391 level is a caution to longs and incase it trades below 4339 no longs at all. Tomorrow, RIL has to cross the high of 1846 and shall not trade below 1818 level to keep faith in the up move. The Bharti shall trade above 863 and high shall cross 876. The two will tell the future tale of bull move.
As suggested, those who have taken delivery in IDBI at around 104-06 level can exit around 139-141 level, in case it trades below 116-114 level can book profits and fresh shorts can be initiated.
Now every body is interested in low volatile & defensive stocks, ofcourse they turn volatile once the retail section chase.
Sorry for not publishing the Monday possibility.

The World Indices for a Toss!

The world is reeling under the sub-prime lending issues of US, spreads to the world across. The economy is so inter linked in this era of modern dynamic days that no single economy is independent of it’s own. The interdependence is good when the sailing is smooth but things worsen when they move for a wrong reason.

The beauty of this kind of fall is that it offers blue chips, emerging stocks for a throw away price. The stocks like BHEL, ABB, L&T, NTPC, WIPRO, Divis, IDBI, IDFC, YES Bank, Moser Bear, Praj Ind and RIL. No matter to mention the leading big boys who emerge fast once the dust settles. So grab the opportunity from Monday onwards.
For today, RIL has good support at 1792, SBI at 1591-89, Infy at 1886, TCS 1106-03, Satyam at 451-48, BHEL at 1665, L&T at 2380, RCOM 511-09, Tata steel at 621-18, Sail at 139-41 level. A thumb rule is expect 4-5% down in Large caps to 7-10% in Midcaps.

No Longer a Haven for Retail Investors?

The markets are no longer a haven for retail investors in these conditions as the volatility has increased considerably. The FIIs and Mutual funds are violent in dealing with the markets that to with the retail participants. The truth is to make the retail investors to opt for the mutual fund route. This enables them to “live and let live” approach. But the traders have no option but to live or die, where as the swing traders swing more in the evenings than with the market movement.
The free calls, paid calls, TV channels, the blogs (like me) and the cell phone intra day calls are to make the liquidity enough in the market so that the operators can enter and exit easily. So “who will save the retail investor?” is the question at this point in time. The answer is ………
No person works for the other person to become rich that to in the stock market it will never happen. Unfortunately there are very few PARTICIPANTS who seriously try to understand the “Rules of the Game” but participate on the tips to make money easily that never happen at the end of the day. The stock market is a fierce battlefield where every body is a “WANTED” and wants to FOOL the other person to make enough profits.
Those persons who comprise the ability to analyse the economy and the performance of the company can make profits in the medium to long-term period. The market movement is always in line with the company’s performance on the longer run but the fluctuations are due to the traders and the calls created demand and supply.

Now Bears showed their power!

The Nifty faced resistance at 4530 at the same point when the Nifty took the U-turn from the 4647 level drifted to 4403 bounced back to 4534 level from there touched a low of 4267 again faced the resistance at the same level.
The Nifty may take longer period to touch the 4500 level unless it trades above 4366 tomorrow and cross 4443-45 levels.
The conditions may very much depend on the US and Asian market cues. But technically Infy is good above 1935+, RIL above 1821, SBI above 1610 and Bharti above 857-59. Incase tomorrow the levels were breached, then the bears pressure is very high and Nifty may see lower levels. If it is a normal profit booking and fresh shorts added Nifty would trade above 4335-39 levels then the damage can be managed with in a few days, otherwise Nifty has good support at 4075-79 levels.

Bulls made their mark!

As posted the move came from the techs that gained 5-10% and lot more to add once the move yield results. The trigger from the RBI’s decision to control the Rupee rise helped bulls the most needed support to take a retaliating move on the bourses.
The situation is in favour of bulls but the move is so steep that finds difficult to hold because the leaders moved fast in hurry. So this move helps the bulls to make the bears to cover the shorts but it is not a good sign to run the bull run. In other words bulls discharged from the hospital and participated in a sprint, which exhausts much energy. Any way the fact is a fact, so far so good and need of the hour is to see the Nifty trades above 4424-28 levels.
The condition holds good in case ICICI, HDFC, Bharti, RCOM, ITC and HUL take the charge to lead and the rest maintain the show.
The negative factors- metals weak, autos have trouble at the ignition point, capital goods are the sufferers of the RBI’s move and the teleco are breathing, SBI advanced far to add numbers to Nifty.

The Green is more, Volatility settled?

The World loves green after a weeklong massacre on the bourses. The stocks jumped over 1-2 percent with a positive note. The markets in India can see much needed support from the techs as the RBI measures to control the rise of rupee against dollar. Now raising money through ECB’s become more difficult to Indian industry.

So it is likely that the techs will be re-rated with 5-10% up, as experts say that rupee will touch 41-5-41.8 ranges in next 3 months. The Infy will cross 2020+, Satyam will cross 510+, Wipro above 535+ and TCS will cross 1225+, Mphasis above 320+ and Polaris above 128+ as the measures start yielding results. The good deals for Indian IT's will be announced soon, for now Wipro opening two centers in China and one in US, Infy, TCS and Satyam already announced such positive news to markets.

Yester day discussed conditions valid, and the teleco will do well Bharti good above 879 Idea above 126 and RCOM above 441. A word of caution the bear pressure may come to surface at 4485-89 ranges but for now so long Nifty trades above 4339 is safe to bull to maintain long.

The profits booked in doubt?

As posted the markets opened up above 4361, the RIL has made 1792 as low and Bharti stayed above 873. The ONGC, RCOM and INFY failed to stay above their best support levels to sustain the bull move as opened.
Now the concern is the Nifty closed below 4361 level at 4356, RCOM closed below 536 and ITC lost the bull support and trading below 169 is a worrying factor. To make the gains made to be sustainable Nifty shall not trade below 4336 and low shall not breach the support level at 4327. The bull gain strength tomorrow when RIL cross 1839, RCOM 543, Bharti 883, Infy 1993 and TCS above 1129. Those who have taken del. in IDBI can continue to hold until it trades above 109.
The global markets may take some profit booking as we did today but the fall shall not be steep to crate anxiety in the opening.

WHO is buying?WHO is burying?

The markets are in a state of confusion and the payers like FI’s, FII’s, traders, investors, hedge funds and fund managers acting in suspicion and maligning the counter part for this situation. It seems that everybody acting as if the other person is deceiving, the cycle is going on and at the end of the day all become fools of their foolishness.
As posted earlier the markets touched 4263 level below the expected level of 4275. In my post tilted-“The deep pockets benefits…..?… The long-term investors can accumulate the growth stocks when the Nifty touches 4270+ levels.
In another post “The bears are making in………roads?. The short term is good for shorts, Nifty may face resistance at 4635-39 level and likely to touch 4273-75 level by mid August. Incase failed to hold then it will touch 4078-75 level which the market missed to touch before it could leap to this level.

The technicals suggest that the markets bottomed temporarily and can see some up move from here. The Nifty closing above 4336 is a positive sign in that direction. To confirm the up move RIL has to open above 1792 and RCOM above 541, Bharti above 873-76 levels, the ONGC shall trade above 881 and Infosys shall open above 1883. This all tighter will put the Nifty opening above 4361, a good sign to bulls to control the bleed.

The Indices look Southward!

The markets suffered the big jolt by the US sub-prime lending issues, we are no exception. We are likely to open below the good support levels developed at 4331-35, but the challenge is whether we could able to come back fast before the steam exhausts. The top index mover RIL has to trade above 1776 level for today to see some recovery, to sustain the bull run it has to trade above 1718 and for any reason it shall not trade below 1671 to see the bull move to sustain.
The day support level to see recovery- RIL has good support at 1776-73, good for long above 1801 (one can try to buy above 1791). ONGC has good support at 876-73, good for long above 917. Above 528, RCOM has buyer’s support, Tata steel supports exist at 621-23 level.
Brave hearts can start accumulating the future performers from now like Zee around 290+, Idea at 118-14, RCOM 501-06, Tata Motors at 620-580, M&M at 620-590 range, Ranbaxy at 355-345.

Value Buying OR Burying for Now?

The markets are falling but "worth buying now?"is the challenging question to be answered. The prudent saying about the market is “Never catch a falling knife in the market”. The world is changing fast to accept risk as an integral function of life. Now I say the maxim can be considered as “Never catch a falling sword”. I believe that the INVESTOR will consider market given oppertunity as an "Opportunity in Risking or a Risky Opportunity".
The room for up side is valid so long as our economy is growing at 7-8% and the markets are bound to move up, even small bumps and pots holes come in the way of their successful journey. The difficult thing is to live with difficult times even though we may have bright future a head.

Can the up move sustained?

As posted Nifty touched 4428+, SBI strong above 1603 touched 1652, RCOM crossed 554, Tata steel stayed above 654 range, gave good returns to buyers. The realty sectors got good support from investors. Nifty sustained the up move with the support from all sectors especially capital goods, the banks and metals.
The challenge now is to see the immediate support levels shall not be melted as they formed with double bottom support. The nuclear 1-2-3 is good sign for bilateral relations and economic ties with USA.
The concern on technical front is the drag on Nifty by auto & tech weights, Bharti, ICICI bank and Reliance down ward moves building nervousness. The banks move relatively reached to complacency levels is a threat to the upward move of Nifty. The mid-caps will out perform in the coming up move, as the future is very promising to them. The Monday move is very crucial to the markets and should stay above 4373 and any down ward move will be serious that could wipe out at least 250 points.

Buy the out performers?

Stocks cannot advance in any market in a single direction from higher to even more, the beauty of the markets is people book profit at their satisfactory levels are reached other wise strong hands shake the market to see the wear holding sold at the lower prices so that they can garner the opportunity.
The fall could not shake the bottoms of IDFC, still trading above 126, Idea above 121, the IDBI can be accumulated up to 98 the best place bulls give full support. The Bhel recovery, L& T ABB & HDFC power to face the bears force and many good stocks advanced from their earlier levels- Kotak bank and SBI.
It is very common phenomenon that the retail investor book profit in those stocks that out perform the market and wait in the laggards even though the person understands the loss is looming/ stock is sleeping. I request the viewers to reverse the process even it is painful to book loss.
The world is mixed responding locally, now we are likely to move up as the scrips took reasonable support at the bottom. The RIL good above 1821, stop loss at 1803, SBI above 1603 stop loss at 1586, RCOM good above 536, stop loss at 530, Tata steel good above 639 stop loss at 632. The market moves up if Nifty crosses 4373 in the first half an hour, then 4426-29 can be reached.The mid caps like Moserbaer, Praj Ind and Punj lloyd will advance. The reality sector will find bargain buyers. Spice telecom and Idea are good for long-term bets.

The hope survives with global green!

The global green makes us happy as the carnage made many surprised and the pull back can bring/hold the retail investors in the market.
There is no need to get panic unless a trader who lives on the ruminants. The trades create volumes and volatility grind the sweat, where as the investor let the blood to flow on the streets in these times.
It is clearly a buying opportunity to an investor but as a matter of fact most retail investor buy at the top/high and sell at the bottom blaming the market as it has done the unrecoverable loss. Instead if the investor buys after a considerable fall and incase of further fall it is always good that averaging can help the most.
Now the markets take two to three days to settle. The reality and banks under perform. The power, energy and telecom sectors outperform in the next leg of up move.

Need to press panic button?.

The answer is certainly “no”. The technical analysts, the viewers of this blog might now that the fall could be massive and the levels expected yet to come. So why this cry?- the answer could be the speed and steep fall occurred without warning to many but not to the readers as I clearly stated on "The bears are making in………roads?.… The volatility is not because of the expiry of the July but the preparation for a deep cut on the face of bulls by the bears".

As posted, RIL came to 1791, we expected 1785, ITC in bear grip until it trades below 169.
No need to get panic until RIL trades above 1711-09, SBI trades above 1435-39, RCOM trades above 491, Tata steel trades above 585 and Bharti trades above 806-09 levels. So wait for the right opportunity and start accumulating in the blue chips.

Any way who was trapped?

The markets all over the world were spread by red with small spots of green. As we have seen the run-up is to eliminate the retail shorts and bring some faith to them to hold their rest of their longs along with fresh averages in the long side.
Now the Nifty is strong above 4503, good support at 4493-91 level. In case it trades below the levels will become stop-loss point.
The RIL weak below 1891 and likely to trade below 1785 in future, SBI good above 1608-06, ONGC in trading range good above 936 weak below 909, RCOM strong above 563-65 weak below 553, Tata steel weak below 669, Rel cap good above 1224, Bharti good above 918-21, Satyam weak below 481 good above 493, Infy good above 1996 weak below 1966, TCS good above 1173, weak below 1149. The ITC will become weak if it trades below 173, live in bear grip if it trade below 169.

Bulls have many things to say…!

In my earlier posts titled- The deep pockets benefits…..? “The Nifty August series has to trade above 4525 level immediately to confirm the bull move with in 3-4 trading sessions, other wise the damage can even wipe out the image of India’s growth story”.

The up move is to make the bears to cover the shorts at an early date and make the buying averages are more economical. A strong move after a steep fall helps the bulls because the bears sell low and buy at high price.
The ITC stock acted in line with the expectation touched 175, RIL resumed its journey above 1865 to 1900 range, ONGC traded above 900+, and the Ranbaxy added Rs15/-. The Tata Steel though moved up but could not cross 661 level very important to do so. The IDFC and Idea made very good moves.
Now the Nifty face resistance at 4555-59 level and it is likely that the banks see profit booking will bring down the Nifty to 4445 level, the best support to maintain the ongoing bull move.

Does FEAR over come the hope?

As posted on Sunday, the markets took support at 4403, SBI crossed 1549 high and touched 1614+, RIL took support at 1839. The Rel.cap pierced the bottom support and ITC became weak, just above the good support level. The fear of holding the longs pared the earlier gains at the fag end of the session.
The Nifty support at 4391-93, next at 4347-43 level. The Nifty may trade above 4463 and likely to touch 4508-4511. In case Nifty fails trade above 4481 before 2 pm it is very likely that it could have Southward journey due to credit policy or fear to hold longs. The RIL shall resume up move and trade above 1866, ONGC above 901, Infy above 1991, TCS above 1153, Wipro above 501-03 levels to see the Nifty move above 4491 immediate resistance level.
The smaller banks likely to surge up, the telecom stocks are under pressure and see some correction before they move up. Ranbay is in the news so is other pharma companies. The ITC has to move up above 170 to see renewed up move, other wise simply exit.
Now the globe is green and looking other markets to participate in the heartening movement at the indices. The top news today is RBI view on monetary policy, very likely to continue the earlier one. The results-Hindalco, Tata Motors, Tulip, Bajaj Hindustan, Aurobindo, Birla corp., BEL and BRFL

Fear & Greed rules the market!

The local conditions developed for an up move but the fear over the developments of global weaknesses and the rising crude price is the concern.
The HUL, RIL and SBI did their part at their end but the street response to it is difficult to predict. As of now the fear is more threatening investors to go long or to keep their holdings in this turbulent times.
Now the numbers game- Incase nifty high don’t cross 4481 weak, trades below 4441 very weak likely to touch 4383 next 4341-39 range. RIL has good support at 1839-37, trades below sell all del., the markets take longer period to recover. Incase ONGC trades below 881-83 level, the markets will touch 4140 level very easily.
The good supports- SBI has at 1464-61, RCOM at 510-512, Tata steel 621-23, Sail 138-139, Rel.cap at 1174-71 again at 1147-49; ICICI at 881-83, Bharti at 873-71.
As of now the other part of the world is melting, in any case these three stocks shall trade above their best support levels to see the steep fall as correction-- ITC trades below 163, HUL trades below 188-89, RIL shall not trade below 1815 will make the things worsen.

The consolation in slaughtering!

The stock markets can be compared with a battle field- “It is important to kill the rival opponents but it is more important to survive to enjoy the fruits of success”.
The silver lining in the darkness at these times is to get support from the biggies of the street. The RIL and SBI results were better than expected for this quarter can make a seal to the bleeding market. In the present context, I foresee a better come back as the scrips tumbled on low volume and bottom fishing from the institutions may save the markets.
In case Nifty gets support at 4401-03, RIL close above 1881, SBI crosses a high above 1549 then the worst is not as severe as it was pronounced. The tech majors with stood the global tremors, the after effects are even more important to the market. In case they crumble, they simply add fuel to the fire. As a matter of fact many Nifty companies are trading above their best support levels that were intact. The major results of BHEL, RCOM, Tata Steel, Tata Motors…yet to come, can save the indices. A word of caution, the road a head will be clearly visible only when the dust settles/ fog melts.

The Deep Pockets benefit the most…..?

The fall is so steep that the immediate support levels of all the stocks were broken except Infy. good above 1970 and to some extent TCS stayed above 1153. The IDFC and Idea stayed above the support level of 126 and 118-119 level. The stocks like ITC, Ranbaxy and Moser Baer improved their bottom support.
The Nifty August series has to trade above 4525 level immediately to confirm the bull move with in 3-4 trading sessions, other wise the damage can even wipeout the image of India’s growth story. Now the question at this hour is “who will save from this crisis?”. The domestic mutual funds have more liquids funds at their disposal and the Govt. institutions are capable enough to absorb the flow but they need assurance from the retail investors without pressing the re-dumption button.
The steep fall in the indices and tumbling of the prices help the deep pocked institutions and the HNIs whose staying power is beyond weeks and months. These are the times they enjoy the fall, use most of their money to buy the blue chips and investing in the multi-baggers. The retail investors sell in panic at most of the times because they take the leverages in anticipation of early and easy bucks. So be cool and rise money to make money. The long-term investors can accumulate the growth stocks when the Nifty touches 4270+ levels.

Bulls bite RED, carnage across…..

The bloodbath across the globe with 2-4% down on indices will make our openings lower than the immediate support levels. The days like this, the support levels won’t take any real support, as the supply of stocks at any time cannot be predictable. The panic situation cannot be easily managed unless one tries to have a long-term view with deep pockets garner the opportunity.
Any way we have to live with the situation whether we like it or not. Two days back I suggested offloading all del. to buy at lower levels. The Nifty has support at 4496-4491 level and very good support at 4412-15 levels. In case Nifty can stay above 4512-13, we can breath easily as the damage can be managed immediately.
We have RIL and ITC results, any unexpected positives from RIL can save the day other wise total shave. The old levels for techs valid, the good supports for RIL-1875-71, ONGC- 891, SBI-1509-06, ICICI- 917-22, INFY-1935, Satyam 479 and 471, Wipro – 491-93, RCOM-540, STER- 631-29, RelCap-1206-09, TataSteel-673-71, Bhart-875-73. Incase more than 5 counters trade lower than these levels, just consider the market is in downturn. The carnage effect will take at least 5-7 trading sessions before a clear bull move to emerge, if at all the short-term prospects live intact.

Highest ever turnover -1.01lakh crores!

The turnover is increasing day by day and the figures become milestones as they are superseded in the days to come. The Wipro made its move in the series of rotation as usual and the whole market recovered in the last few minutes as the short covering happened in July but more shorts were built up in August.
The banks became weak, RIL strong above 1915 rose to 1945+, ONGC to 959 as they traded above their support levels. The Tata Steel could not trade above 719 became weak to touch 697 level. The Infy traded in the positive zone above 2020 touched 2045+, TCS rallied from the 1166 to 1200 level and Wipro bounced to 525 level after it crossed 510.
Bombey dyeing up by 5%, HDFC crossed 2000+ after good results. The pharma major Ranbaxy made this day as its day to settle at 375+level, as it got good support now at 355-352.

Welcome to August series and farewell to July!

The market has become stock specific, one day TCS up, other day Satyam up, another day Infy but rest techs were normal. As I wrote earlier on 21st. the rotation has been in place to keep the Nifty up and up. The beauty of the market is - rewarding those who dare to take del. on declines. The word of caution is never take del. in a FALLING MARKET.
The world markets are flat with negative bias but US + to – to flat, emerging markets mixed. The RIL is good above 1915 weak below 1904, ONGC good above 926, SBIs first bottom support at 1542, ICICI support at 950 good above 966, Bharti good above 920 (today Results). Tata steel positive above 719-21, weak below 706. Infy has immediate support at 1956, resistance at 1996, good above 2020. TCS good above 1166-69, Wipro good for del. above 510-12 stop loss 504-05.(like ITC, in the making but takes time).
NEWS: Air Deccan issue, Infy by out, RCOM- air tickets yatra.com, ONGC and HDFC post results effects. Sail with Mittals, IDFC with India Infrastructure Fund, L&T and Bombay Dyeing tie up. Canara bank broking business, Siemens shops in US.

Stock Market always BOSS!

On 18TH, I posted to keep an eye on ITC and good for del. above 158, made a stellar move on 60-point Nifty fall. So it all about understanding the market movement. The legends of the market told several times- "market is always right". I say, market is BOSS- “market is all about a given price- Buying Opportunity- Solid Selling”. The Stock Market all WAYs - BOSS, so make use of both the opportunities, each time and every time. GOOD LUCK.
The technicals reveal the work done and the future projection based on the history, but most of the times we don’t participate with a doubt or with a self defined reason. The repentance makes us depressed, instead participate by buying while the scrip is moving up and sell while the scrip drops to lower levels.
The market took support at the 4555 level as anticipated and the rise was from the support of RIL, ONGC and SBI. The strongest at this point in time was RIL and ONGC, of course ITC made this day as it’s day. Relcap took bottom support at 1198 rose to 1245 level, IDFC moved fast to new highs above 129 lower support at 126. The RCOM took southward move even its' counter part Bharti moved up.

Rest is red except China!

The markets are now in correcting mode as the valuations are compelling to investors to book profits. This opportunity is more than enough bears to put their pressure on bull to take a back seat for today and days to come. The Nifty face pressure when it trades below 4611-13 may find support at 4571-73 levels, next at 4551-50 levels. Those who have taken del. in Idea and Satyam, as posted touched 135 and 525 levels can be booked profits.
The RIL get selling pressure below 1915 and good above 1928-26, ONGC weak below 916 and good above 926, SBI good above 1598-96, ICICI good above 883. The Infy weak below 1963, RCOM weak below 571, Bharti good above 839. IDBI good above 112 and IDFC good above 126, Rel cap good above 1198-1203 stop-loss 1185-83. DLF weak below 657, stoploss at 671.

The bears are making in………roads?.

The volatility is not because of the expiry of the July but the preparation for a deep cut on the face of bulls by the bears. The bulls give their best effort to save the move intact. The bears were cornered in a classic trap from 4280 level on June expiry.
As posted earlier, the Nifty has good support at 4140 level, as it traded 40 trading sessions. As the markets matured and ripe for the downturn, the volatility can be observed as the low cut and high cut is a common phenomenon before a steep fall.
The short term is good for shorts, Nifty may face resistance at 4635-39 level and likely to touch 4273-75 level by mid August. Incase failed to hold then it will touch 4078-75 level which the market missed to touch before it could leap to this level. (Read earlier posts)
Camps kept me out to update.

The lower support is crucial!

The Nifty did not breach the lower support of 4551 as posted yesterday but the fall from higher level due to profit booking and the over nightfall of US can fuel doubts over the continuation of bull move. This can put some pressure on bulls to unwind their positions and the bears may take this opportunity to apply pressure to break the immediate supports of Nifty and the leaders. The Nifty has good support at 4489-87 level and this will stand valid so long RIL stays above 1841-43, Bharti above 898-901 and RCOM stays above 556-61 levels.The rotation of stocks is the day of the trading style. It is likely that ICICI may get selling pressure and in SBI, incase it fails to trade above 1581-83. The up move in steel stocks can take halt but Tata steel is good above 705 and Sail above 153. The techs may correct further, this time Infy cannot stay above 1935 if it trades below 1966, Satyam weak blow 463, TCS below 1151- otherwise they are in trading range. The ONGC and power equipment manufacturing can save the Nifty from steep fall. The stocks are positive, ONGC above 895, Bhel above 1621, Suzlon above 1450, ABB above 1085 and NTPC above 156-157.

Is it consolidation or distribution?

The markets corrected from the higher level have become an opportunity to prune the earlier positions but not to build further positions. The Nifty will consolidate but the stock specific distribution in imment at this point in time. The clear signal is 7% down in Siemens, yet to recover and ABB fall, as well those who shorted in RIL and Tata steel forced to buy at higher levels. The operators are making all possible ways to trap the retail investors as the market has become stronger to mend to one’s whims and fancies.

Those who are in long can continue to hold until Nifty stays above 4491-93 levels. The fresh buying opportunities will emerge in NTPC and REL. The telcos are now Towers of money spinning. Those who are long in Bharti can wait to sell above 1000,RCOM above 625 and Idea above 175. The results of Cipla are disappointing and no big news to trigger up move may consolidate at 180-170 level. The fertiliser stocks likely to advance further as the food- security has become the need of the hour. The Unitech & DLF can be maintained in once portfolio but not small construction companies as the space demand by the BPO & software companies for next two to three years is limited. The surplus space and over construction in reality will dampen the demand in the market and make them loan defaulters that could bring cynical effect in the market. So anticipate the spate of the reality market in the context of rupee appreciation and emerging threats from China, Malaysia and from other emerging countries.
Now India is poised to grow in nuclear power, KPO, CRAMS and biotechnology. The other space for growth is emerging in retail malls and entertainment market through cable and WIMAX with 3G spectrums.

The up-move unlimited!

The markets world over inching up day after day despite of some concerns and negative views and cautious suggestions from the brokerage houses.
The Nifty has crossed the 4480-4520 range as posted earlier, now the suggestion in stay invested with the remaining balance in the del. of Idea, Bharti, Zeel, Ster, IDBI and IDFC. In case of compulsive nature to take del. try in Ranbaxy, L&T and Dabur. The FMCG move could in the offing as the retaiers increasing their space rapidly. It is very likely that DLF and UNITECH will be included in the NIFTY by next quarter. So accumulate in small lots and gain from the move. The early initiatives from the KPO and CRAMS likely to benefit India and the nuclear deal can make a lot of change in the valuations of the equipment manufactures like BHEL, ABB, Punj Lloyd. The NTPC, REL and Tata power will benefit, as they are leaders in power generation. The above companies can be accumulated, and the fall becomes a big opportunity.

The Nifty has resistance at 4583-89 range, incase it trades below 4555-4551, bears will have the advantage. The RIL may get selling pressure if it fails to trade above 1901-03 in the first half an hour and the low is below 1885. The run-up in banks likely to continue incase SBI trades above 1589-91 and ICICI above 993. Those who are holding the Idea del from 118 can book profits at 135 as suggested. The Bharti del holders can wait until it stays above 873-71. Incase persons long in Nifty can prune their positions by 50%.

Except US, the RED is spreading?

The world markets favours red now and Asia is trading in Red. The Indian markets are in advance to take corrective steps. It is likely that the markets may open below 4467 support level and may continue to trade below. As we are in results season, stock specific action is not ruled out. As suggested no longs for a longer period in the name of LONG-TERM.
RIL is good above 1816 and may feel pressure below 1811 but good support at 1788-91 range. ONGC good above 903, use as a stop-loss for both sides. The SBI weak below 1591 and has support at 1563-61 level, RCOM may test 540-36 level, though there was some good news. Any day, Bharti is good for del. if it trades above 879, low above 873. SAIL has good support at 139-138 range. Rel. cap weak below 1183-85, become stoploss. UBS favourate, Tata Steel has support at 671-669 range. Keep an eye on ITC, Very good for long- term players who can apply KOI- Keep On Investing, in ITC to sell above 300 after 2 years. The pharma majors may move up once the Nifty stabilizes over 4381-83 level, and out perform in the next move. Those who are maintaining 50% del. in ZEEL can exit now and reenter at 301-306 range. Idea del. persons can wait and accumulate in case of a fall.

The correction is an opportunity?

The techs showed their strength but failed to enthuse the market except in TCS and Satyam but failed to hold on higher levels is a concern reflected in the fall from higher levels. The worst hit was the capital goods and the metal space.
As posted, the ONGC didn’t trade above 918 come down to 900 level but RIL traded above 1781 went to 1835+ level. Idea fared well in a negative market went to 129+ and IDFC showed its strength to stay above 126, above 129 it touched to 132+. The steels corrected from their higher levels as a structural adjustments in Tata Steel and Sail. There were no sign of concern for an immediate off load but wait and watch is the word of caution that came from the capital goods sector as it was the darling sector for bulls, offloaded first.

No shocks quite calm!

The world markets are faring well with positive bias and the trend likely to continue. In our markets it shows the movement paused and likely to drift in case techs failed to enthuse today. Focus on leading tech companies, as they are likely to be re-rated as TCS results positive, Infosys acquired BPO arm, Satyam got two big orders.
The Nifty is good above 4466-67, until it breaches that level maintain long. The Infosys is strong above 1935, stoploss 1920; TCS strong above 1129 stoploss at 1116-15; Satyam good above 483 stop-loss at 475. The RIL, RCOM, Tatasteel are on their previous levels. SBI good above 1603-01, Relcap good above 1176 weak below 1163. IDEA is good above 126 and IDFC above 129.
ONGC becomes weak if it fails to trade above 918 and RIL fail to trade above 1781. The ITC has some move and something cooking in this counter, likely to flare above 158.