Congratulations OBAMA…..

Congratulations BARACK OBAMA…..
“Hearty congratulation”, CHANGE made a mark in the history to make a CHANGE.
The world experienced the waves of Obama, now a reality to accept the CHANGE as a reality.


The markets fell as they touched 3280 in the futures and fell a crumbling tower to settle at day’s low at2971, closed at 2995. The resistance can be used as an opportunity to build longs at lower levels from Nifty touching 2680-2630 level and bouncing back with a vigour. To satisfy the above condition, the RIL shall not trade below 1080-75 level. The sudden shut down of plants made the markets to feel the heat of recession impact that affected most, especially the India’s top Cap company.
The US markets are also trading lower to accept the more tax plans by the new Prez. The local issues will become clear in next one week, until then just trade or keep fingers crossed keep guessing.

In my earlier post titled as Looming uncertainties……Incase we could rally up to 3280 then the chances are there to see more short covering but the chances are remote to view this favourable situation. The down side protection is more important than the concern for upward rally at this critical juncture. As expected yesterday, Nifty got resistance at 3035 level but in the last ½ hour it could cross the resistance to touch 3065 level and ONGC crossed the resistance at 710 to touch 716 levels. The Nifty shall not breach the 2680 level and the RIL shall not go below 1230 level.

The Bulls party …….

The markets are enjoying the up move as if there was some Bull market at it a high of jubilant mood.
As expected earlier in the previous posts that the markets will get the bulls support as the blue chips are thrown on streets but very few takers to accept the offer. Those who shorted below 2860 level and those who were aggressive below 2680 are started covering their positions. I clearly mentioned not to short below if not interested to buy just maintain sidelines till the confidence builds to venture.
The surprise to day was the ONGC move and the operators in ONGC might already expected a short covering in global crude price as it was trading above 12%m so the ONGC crossed the 710 resistance and rallied to 780 level as the 716 now became as an immediate support. The RIL is consolidating at 1420-25 level as the resistance playing a hinder to a free rise.
The Governments across the globe came forward to cut the lending rates and infused more liquidity into the system to lay some support to the falling financial markets and sagging industrial growth. Now Indian Government take a bold initiative, has given assurance to the industry leaders to take advantage of the financial crisis of the west and maintain the work force without layoffs as the elections are nearing.
The Nifty has crossed the immediate risk of falling back to 2200 level as the bottom was neatly developed at 2550-60 level. So now the Nifty is likely to swing between 2850-3680 levels till the “New Year-09” bells ring.

The World is waiting.......

Presidential elections "a new life" of US. Will the 44th President of US can work for a change that the world is looking?.

I look for a better loving human beings living for fellow beings on this planet?.

The looming uncertainties…..

The intimidating uncertainties in our financial sector are unfolding through the top brass of country second largest bank head confessing the need for bail out package. The Business Standard covered an article titled as With Rs 630k-cr debt, MFs and NBFCs need bailout: Kamath, Press Trust of India / New Delhi November 2, 2008, 19:15 IST……."There is no need for a bailout package for the Indian banking system but the bailout package could be required for mutual funds and NBFCs………

The RBIs move to infuse more liquidity into the system reveals a fact that we are heading to a collision of financial crisis, efforts are in place to avert the gloomy conditions. The opportunities for Bears to make a killing at the bourses are opening widely with more favourable news than to the Bulls. At this point we are now enjoying the relief rally with positive cues from the global markets. The FM to meet with the bankers, PM meeting with the industry heads to create investment friendly atmosphere is more good news that can halt fall in the stock prices.
Incase we could rally up to 3280 then the chances are there to see more short covering but the chances are remote to view this favourable situation. The down side protection is more important than the concern for upward rally at this critical juncture. As expected yesterday, Nifty got resistance at 3035 level but in the last ½ hour it could cross the resistance to touch 3065 level and ONGC crossed the resistance at 710 to touch 716 levels. The Nifty shall not breach the 2680 level and the RIL shall not go below 1230 level.

Live with the numbers…..

Whether we like it or not we have to accept the movement of the numbers in the stock prices. The recent developments have some positive impact on the liquidity front may give support to the bulls to absorb the selling pressure. The RBI rate came when the inflation is tapering south but the more concern is on the IIP numbers representing a torrid industrial growth.

We are now at the midst of the pullback rally that can easily take us to 3100-3150 level. As mentioned on Friday, the Index swings were violent due to ONGC, Bharti and RCOM results effect and RIL participated.
Now RIL has come out with 40% rise from the lows at 930 levels to 1395 levels. But this time the banks bellwether SBI waiting for some good news to participate. The up move can be expected only when it trades above 1330-1350 level. The ONGC may find resistance at 708-10 level and may settle below 625-640 level for some tome unless the crude surges above 85 dollars per barrel immediately. The NIFTY has resistance first at 2998-95 level and again at 3031-25 level and good above 2800-2796 level but the lower level support expected at 2751-39 level.

They “R” there……

The FII problems are there and their economic conditions are not resolved but are not incremental in their nature. The FIIs pulled out of nearly 15000 crs. from our Indian equities but their appetite seems not over. The leveraged liquidity from the top economic counties like US,UK, Japan, Germany , France and other sound countries have indiscriminately irrespective of their investment value chased the stocks in emerging markets with a tag like BRICs. The domestic investors in those countries failed to think in contrary but accepted as a god sent opportunity, invested at very high levels. The scheme designed by FIIs run as per their plan, then started pulling their money from equities to PE placements in real estates and the other debt instruments. Now when every body noticed the fact then these FIIs resoted to sell in the exchanges to make the prices fall further to create a panic situation, add fuel to fire started chanting the basic principles of P/E ratios and the high valuations.

The real-estate investments will give multi bagger opportunities to these FIIs & the foreign companies after 5-6 years as they could grab the prime locations in the top metros of our nation. The economy will get its strength and the policy changes will help them to open shops & mall first in single brands and later in multi brands. The logic can be traced with simple arithmetic calculations like averages. Suppose a person with long-term vision and plan who could influence the markets can dictate the terms like what the FIIs are doing right now. The basic principle is same to every body but who follow and make others to follow the foot prints is the matter. The Person who bought DLF at IPO range at Rs600/- price, 200 shares cost Rs 1,20,000/- and sold 100 shares of DLF at 1100-1200 range can now buy 450-550 shares. So the average cost his total 600 (500+100) shares cost is 1,60,000/- only. The same is the case with RCOM, RIL, REL infra, Relcap and so on.... This can be spread to any number of blue-chip companies. The real loser is always the retail investor and the day trader who speculates with ones great mind and ability to satisfy the inherent ego and to make a foul cry on the circumstances that made his/her condition.

The policy actions are inducted to infuse liquidity but on the other hand we are making our selves fatten to be cut by these FIIs feast of selling at the higher level. In case the above discussed situation unfolds then our markets will stick to sub 2500 levels by using a branded glue stick for a longer time than anticipated. This will become a boom to the FIIs to sketch a different plan after some years when the memory of the retail investors fades.

The India Sovereign Fund concept will kill the spirit of the value discovery mechanism underlined in the open market rather than a system that functions on the controle of Government. The markets are increasingly getting the influences of the vested interests operating on a global scale. The political compulsions, populism measures for power rather than the long-term sustainable economic gains once controlled the policy decisions but now the global village being controlled by the president though every country is a sovereign by definition.

The long designed plans are not understood unless we view them with holistic approach to news headlines. The greed for global crude controle made Iraq devastation and surprisingly the heads of the nations talk on peace measures with reconstruction activity so is our civil Nuclear deal no less than a big business opportunity for a “stagflation” flagged world big economy. The doors of the Indian defense deals to global tenders are about to open as a competitive bidding process for better treasury gains. So is our port buildings and fast lane rail tracks….and so on…

RBI cuts………

The Reserve Bank of India came forward to make a positive decision to cut the interest rates, CRR by 100 bps, repo rate by 50 bps. The RBI took the bold decision to cut CRR for injecting nearly Rs 1 Lakh crores in to the system.
This support to system can build confidence and ease the pressure on the stock markets due to the impending MF and FMPs redemption pressure. The Govt has recognized the slow down in the industrial activity especially in manufacturing sector. The agricultural commodity led industries like, Tractors & automobile, Textiles and Sugar sector season has begun but the liquidity crunch will impact the farmers that could be very costly while in an election year. The woes of reality sector due to the tight loan availability not only impact the builders but the big un-organised labourers and the related down the line industries. These steps will through a positive signal that the govt. at the helm is for the masses and willing to listen to the voices of the industry.

An effort to remind once again….

An effort to remind once again….
In my earlier post titled… The BEST chance to overcome…dt 25-08-08…
The markets are consolidating at this stage where the Nifty made some anchor at 4200-4300 level.
The markets very likely to move further to 5100 level if it trades above 4500 level (with out touching 4080-4100 level) which is very crucial resistance to cross, other wise the markets likely to see one more deep correction that could take back first to 3500 level, later to 3180-3130 level, if worst case developed then to a level that was available at 2940-3040 range, came in the last week of July-06.
The July, 2006 levels may not come to Nifty as it undergone a series of changes in the composition, higher capitalization stocks like DLF, UNITECH, Power Grid, now the Rpower being included by 10th Sep-08.
The Indian markets are taking the earlier lead while falling and even in the rise, but the global crisis may not let it move in unidirectional up move. At the current valuations, the age old thumb rule method of identifying the stocks like P/E is still high at 18.25 as per NSE, when compared to the historic movements.

Today the Economic Times covered with a title as ….. Nifty hit by poor choice of members (1 Nov, 2008, 0149 hrs IST,Apurv Gupta & Krishna Kant, ET Bureau)…..reads…..
The frequent changes in benchmark indexes and the inclusion of stocks like Reliance Power, Suzlon, RPL, Unitech and DLF while at the same time excluding large companies with a stable earnings and dividend record have brought the benchmark index down to its knees.

Experts say that in such situations, where the index has crashed due to an abnormal fall in certain stocks, it becomes meaningless for investors to look at the index levels or compare its ratios such as PE with indices in other countries, especially when some of the index constituents have no earnings at all to talk about……………….
………. For example, if we take the same constituents of the Nifty as at the beginning of 2006, the index would have been ruling higher by about 230 points from its current level. In fact, the Nifty would not have even fallen below 2929 points compared with its actual close on Wednesday at 2697 pts. Similarly, if the Nifty composition had been the same as in early 2007, the index would not have broken through the 2900-mark…………..

No fundamental change…

The markets are in troubled state as every body knows but now the governments coming forward to take part in rescue measures. This is offering a fill-up but don’t buy for the immediate gains of further 20% but for long term it could be one of the chances offered.
The markets are temporarily bottomed out by all means but the buying at the lower levels has not happened enough to hold the bottom. So either there should be a huge buying or the price shall make a journey above the resistance levels. The either case is pending.

The Nifty is good above 2600 as first support and it shall not trade below the 2480 level but the resistance at 2880-95 level then it will go to 3200 level. The markets will considered stabilized when the RIL is above 1380-85 level and the ONGC is above 785-91 level.

For today the Nifty is good for long so long it trades above 2716-25, the low shall not breach the support of 2622-18 level but the ONGC results effect and the RCOM results will through some guidance to the markets as the earnings pressure is mounting even though much was discounted.

The Strength of shining....

WISH YOU A VERY HAPPY DIWALI

The strength of FIIs………

The financial strength of FIIs was shown on the Dalal Street for the last 20 trading sessions. The bloggers, the analysts and the domestic fund managers are kept on telling that there is nothing wrong with our economy. The need of the hour and the fact at this point in time is the global sentiment and the price erosion. The stock prices will take their course based on the fundamental strength of the economy and the ability to tap the available resource by the corporate sector.

The technicals can be collaborated after the mayhem but very few can tell the exact extent and the length of time to complete a cycle of buying or selling. Like the natural disaster which can be sensed, predicted but cannot be controlled, the same way the stock market movement that based on the instant psychology of the market participants. It cannot be controlled but can be discussed and argued after wards. The best thing is to avert the damage is kept away from it.

The cracking signs are known to many, when the Nifty breached the 4200 level one can get out of the delivery one more chance when the Nifty fallen below 3930-3860 level. Now many investors were trapped and eager to sell now, a situation known to many and willing to take a call to exit but the opportunity is closed.

The Stock market investment is nothing but prudent thinking and quick decision making but not confused hasty management of the worsen situation.

The un-mind FULL rampage

The markets world over reeling under severe damage and debris of distress due to the financial tsunami. There is mercy missions for the rescue help to save affected with humanity but the investors are not getting at least the much required first aid to save from collapse on death bed. The regulators are worrying for the past mistakes committed rather than the presence of mind to avert extent of the damage.There is n-number of people ventured to buy at lower levels as they are right by all reasons except the market commandments.

It is not the LOWEST PRICE to buy A STOCK but the RIGHT TIME to BUY is very important.

NO way….

The FII are not interested to reverse their positions in India. The short selling by borrowing will open a new window of opportunity in the financial sector of lending and borrowing the shares from our MFs and DIIs. The financial reforms will be done with this bitter experience likely to provide a congenial environment that encourages the local money flow to capital markets. The reports suggest that 2% of Indians are investing and then imagine this be 10% in next 5 years, and the Index levels. But for now the markets are in full FII selling grip, there was no bad news except their bad financial conditions.

The bleeding in the Asian markets continuing and we can be no exception for today. Unless the FIIs agree to reverse their positions, the situation can see no light for next one month. The over done of FIIs shows their nature of investment style and the good part is to place some restrictions on their distress selling to curb this kind of mayhem in markets. The emerging markets are by nature young and can not take the load in the cases of crisis of the present nature.

The FII investment guidelines shall carry a clause that they shall invest for long term at least for 5 years and they shall not press the selling button for not more than 10% their holding thorough open market operations, can resort for off market bulk deals.

Just remember…...

The history is not far way to make it difficult to recollect the past happening happened on the Indian bourses just before the crash. The challenge is to accept the reality and live with the situation offered or created. The present situation in the market was expected, to touch this 2900 level well in advance and was published in my 25th August posting.

The Nifty index level was simply a number to quote but the timing of buying stocks never depend on the index level unless the choice falls on index basket. The fall of index will help us to identify more blue chips as there was an opportunity opened to invest for next two years perspective. The trader any way live for the moment to day swing and grossly depend on the price fluctuation derived from the demand and supply but the investor is entirely a different entity, wait for the opportunity and jump to grab it.

So investor can start buy in stocks whose economic cycle is in the up swing or likely to get that advantage. Now the markets are almost bottomed out. I used to cry the same way I am doing now when the market topped at 6200 level and advised the investors to first sell the holdings and with more emphasis not to buy at that level. Now am just reversing the statement but the cry is with same volume.

Please go to the budget allocations and try to take advantage of the benefits from the excise & customs reductions that immensely benefit the companies. The Indian economy is robust and likely to take advantage of the global crisis in its favour, so try to enjoy the fall from these level instead of developing fear. The earlier article suggested for those who already invested.

The mercy at the bottom…

The markets were spared at the bottom as the stocks still holding above the earlier lows when it registered two days back. The special treatment of leveling the levels of SBI to day happened but the stock is still in bulls grip. The FMCG stocks are the ones stood against the bear hammering.

The early statement of markets bottomed out can be confirmed incase our Nifty crosses the immediate resistance at 3255-50 level and the low shall be above 3181 is good, even 3145 is also OK. The Reliance and the other majors like LT, BHEL, HDFC and the tech majors are exhibiting a better bottom for now. So tomorrow a rally of 100 points at Nifty can through the much required relief at the earliest.

The redemption pressure is mounting as day’s passes and the negative news adding fuel to fire. So wait and watch till the worst crystallizes as a solid foundation to the markets at the bottom before jumping for grabbing the mouth watering prices of the blue chips.

No longs ….

The trades are now very much confining to intraday but no longs till markets cross the 3350-3400 decisively on Nifty.
The markets are dwindling to positive and negative news as the case may be but won’t go any where from here. The regular readers will find the piece of news about the 20-20 percent move.
This time the markets met the final leg of fall in case it goes down, it will be confined to the worst scenario case to 2630-80 level that to after a consolidation of 40-50 trading days.
The economic activity will be centered around the infra structure building like ports, air ports and SEZs. The mining activity will take place heavily in 2010 onwards. But for now the projects initiated like power and distribution companies will do well in coming months along with the cable manufacturers.
For today, the Nifty is strong so long it trades above 3130-3120 level. The US and other Asian markets red will force us to open in red but no fresh shors are advised at this point. The markets will get short covering above 3280 level and will add at least150 points. The Reliance above 1460-80 level will spur the short covering activity until it reaches 1680 level, then the market is ripe for fresh shorts that will give safety and high returns with out nightmares.

The Repo rate cut effect…

The RBI has taken a bold step to reduce the Repo rate by 100 basis points. The markets would have welcomed other wise by 500 points on the announcement itself but failed to hold the gains made during the trading hours.

The markets are now likely to move up from these levels in case if the global indices won’t take severe knock. The only concern at this point is the corporate performance. The results announced till date are not bothering but the fear of future is threatening the growth in advancement of the Indices as a whole.
The Nifty draggers like tech lot bounced with vengeance and RIL got enough support at the lower level except DLF. The ONGC, BHEL, Unitech and DLF may try to boost the Nifty to cross the 3350 level which is very crucial.

Still far away but…….

The Indian markets were in deep trouble at the face of it. The Nifty was deep in red and far away from the near term support. The brutal damage was done from the heavy weights like RIL, RPL, ONGC, RCOM and reality & Infra majors like DLF, UNITECH, L T and Rel Infra apart from the metal sector as a lot. The banking sector stood against the onslaught of Bear hammering in spite of the global financial turmoil. The fresh short positions in the beaten down sectors will be very dangerous as they can get trapped easily.

Now the Nifty will get fresh lease of life only when it trades above 3350 and the first batch of strong resistance points starts from 3600-3620 level.
The RIL has to cross the resistance at 1550 and trade above 1420 at least for two trading days. The ONGC has to cross and trade above 850 level.
The reality sector majors except UNITECH are exhibiting some bargain hunting buying in DLF, IB Real estate and in GMR infra.

The long term buyers can start buying the blue chips irrespective of their price and the fear of loss. The Indian economy is continued to do well despite the global slow down. At this point it looks like the emerging new age world economy is shrugging off the traditional & old business icons and paving for a robust vibrant economy.

The Projections & Targets…..

The technical analysts try to provide the targets for both the Index and for the selected stocks. They offer normally to retail investors much later than they were circulated among the dedicated. The beautiful projections enable the retail investor to go for loans and the threats of further fall forces them to liquidate their positions in distress.

These unfortunate situations always happen on both the extremes of the stock market movements. The seasoned investors are also prey to these kinds of statements because of the GREED & FEAR. I request the investors to refrain from these kinds of emotional swings while investing and exiting.

Those who look for a multi-bagger opportunity, the markets are now opening the doors. Instead of investing at the fag end of the rally and go bust in down turn, it is prudent to provide some time to conduct research to identify the sectors that out perform the Index in future. In case you need to get some guidance over the sectoral out performance and promising sector of tomorrow please go to the older posts.

The economic conditions have changed but the bright future for the growth sectors are in tact. So it is very important to invest & maintain in stock from a promising sector portfolio to make a Multibagger rather than simply picking a stock from the lot.

The trimmed excesses….

The markets are bound to rise as they fell. This is a natural phenomena inevitably happens whether some body likes or not.

The concern at this hour is “how fast and by what time?”. This is the common question lingering in every investors mind. Now just imagine some body met with an accident and was admitted in a hospital, placed in intensive care. Then the question will be of What?. Whether it is survival or surprise on the happening?. Then every body will accept with joy that the patient is alive and will be discharged soon after surgery and due care. The same situation is happened to the financial markets across the globe, all are hospitalized, some are in ICU, surviving on Govt. intervention and some are in specialists care.

So my sincere request to investors is to for get reading the daily news of financial happening unless you prefer to be a day/swing trader. The best thing is keep averaging to the limit some body can, enjoy dreaming the golden days that are being manifested.

The only trouble with the recent young investors is the very nature demanding the high valuations that were there and as a matter of fact they paid for the boom. Now the situation is quiet different, the excess valuations of high P/E valuations above 50 were gone and the realist levels of 9-14 are ruling.

So adjust to the reality and accept the truth, keep on investing in companies that delivered high rate of growth over 3-4 years.

A ray of hope….

I think that the Indian markets are very close to bottom out for time being at least. The stocks are showing resilience to move down in-spite of the best efforts by the Bears.

As posted yesterday the infrastructure stocks are finding buyers at the lower levels. There was a clear hope down the line for next two years we are likely to manage and may cross the previous highs based on our internal consumption despite of the global turmoil that we see now.

The crude is falling, metals plummet gives a scope to ease the fall in inflation. The central govt. likely to announce more investor friendly investments norms and the FII inflow will start coming back to India after Jan-09.

But for now the markets yester day recovered on the back of short covering and some kind of buying at the bottom. The worst is not over as the stocks like HUL, LT, BHEL, HDFC, HDFC Bank, SBI and Bharti have not tasted the Bear beating. So Nifty likely to see some lower levels but it won’t hurt as the most already lost their value.

The Nifty likely to cross the 3660 level and may touch the resistance at 3930-3885 level in the coming months. The next fall will complete the bear hammering and the Bulls will take charge. At this time it looks like a joke as it was looked impossible to see a downward move when the indices climbing from 5800 to 6200 level.

The retail investors always FIXED ON THE WRONG SIDE, because of the PRICE LURING while moving up and FEAR OF LOSS while falling down. The markets always provide enough chance to make money but we tend to be ignorant to catch the opportunity. So it is not the BEST PRICE that is IMPORTANT to buy a STOCK but the RIGHT TIME to buy is very important.

The worrying worries….

The situation at India is not worsen but accepting the troubles of the big brother-US. The markets are adjusting to the ground realities whether we like it or not.
The situation at India is also worsening due the redemption pressure as the markets are plunging day after day with out a relief.
The Nifty has been testing its bottom support as it deeper than the expectations of the most. As discussed yester day, the Nifty immediate support at 3365-80 was taken out yesterday and the closing was much below the level. The Indian markets are used to follow the US and other markets when they are in bull mode but now going a head while in down turn.

The markets will be considered stabilized when the Reliance high crosses 1750 and closes above 1685 level. The earlier discussed level to ONGC is still valid-it has to cross the 1020 level and trade above 960 levels to see the down trend halted. The Nifty has to cross the 3680 level to see the down turn put a halt. The real estate and the infra structure stocks are being in accumulation mode even at this disparate situation.

The stocks like Rel Cap and HDFC are being beaten down and will be continued due to their exposure to Mutual funds business, now a drag to pull up.

The doubts in …..

The markets were in doubt about the concerns in the liquidity situation and the redemption pressure. Till date every body said they are sitting in cash and can grab the opportunity but the situations changed to a different dimension- CASH CRUNCH. The global situation for now came to a halt but the internal situation is brewing to worse.

The markets got resistance as expected yesterday at 3640-60 range, the high touched at 3648.25. Now the immediate support was at 3365-80 level on the down side and Nifty has to trade above 3650 level to see the down trend in our markets to take a halt.

The last night US markets and now the Asian markets are shedding the gain from the rally experienced two days back. The situation here can no different from them. The NBFCs are selling shares pledged; the FIIs are continuous to enjoy selling at this distressed levels may cap the up side rally.

The Nifty has to trade above 3570 levels for a buying, but the resistance was at 3534-38 level. The supports existed at 3460 level which may not hold but the 3441-33 level may come to rescue.

Is the worst is over?

The global financial jitters are over as the govt. intervention is timely and enough to bail out the ailing institutions.
The markets across the globe are in green and enjoying the investor support for the blue-chip stocks. The Indian markets are also likely to continue to enjoy the up move.

Now the crude oil is down, inflation is receding the equities will offer good returns to investors from here. But the markets may fall once again after the shorts are covered and the move to big leap will be originated from 3000-2900 level.

This up move may take the Nifty to 3660-40 level as the Reliance, ONGC, RPL, LT and HDFC are not fully participated.

An effort to remind…u again...

It is easy to say about the happenings happened earlier but the difficult question will be to look in to the future.
Every body is talking, saying some thing or other about the markets that they are now in bear grip and things like that as of now I am doing the same thing but…
The churning in the markets is to say cheers & thumps-up to the future leaders of the next BULL Run…..

An effort to remind…. In my posting titled… The BEST chance to overcome…dt 25-08-08…
The markets are consolidating at this stage where the Nifty made some anchor at 4200-4300 level. The markets very likely to move further to 5100 level if it trades above 4500 level (with out touching 4080-4100 level) which is very crucial resistance to cross, other wise the markets likely to see one more deep correction that could take back first to 3500 level, later to 3180-3130 level, if worst case developed then to a level that was available at 2940-3040 range, came in the last week of July-06. The July, 2006 levels may not come to Nifty as it undergone a series of changes in the composition, higher capitalization stocks like DLF, UNITECH, Power Grid, now the Rpower being included by 10th Sep-08. The Indian markets are taking the earlier lead while falling and even in the rise, but the global crisis may not let it move in unidirectional up move. At the current valuations, the age old thumb rule method of identifying the stocks like P/E is still high at 18.25 as per NSE, when compared to the historic movements. The recent worry that has developed in the investors mind was due to the high valuations enjoyed few months back are not available inspite of good earnings. As a matter of fact these things were already discounted by the markets, factored in good news can never trigger up move. So those sweet memories are now sweated, cannot be demanded then the euphoria generated was to attract the scapegoats to distribute and make HARD CASH. Those deceived lots have to throw away the acquired valuable assets as useless scrap, then the markets will bounce with vengeance for that insult, until then just get in and get out.

And in my other posting ……….
The roller coaster…. The Nifty has support first support at 4449 and at 4421-16 level which is crucial and the markets shell not get any supply of shorts at this level. If Nifty could trade above 4481-3 level is a bullish sign but the high had to be crossed the minor resistance at 4505-08 level for this day.


The alliances & offers ……..The Nifty has good support at 4320 and even a better support at 4280 level. The Nifty shall open with a gap of 45 points above 4395-97 level and the high has to be crossed the first resistance at 4415-20 level. I think that this resistance will be crossed with out much pain unless there is huge fall in the Asian stocks.

The real challenge for Nifty is to trade above 4450-55 level to threaten the bears to cover their shorts. I think the retail investors will cover at 4450 level but the HNIs and deep pockets may wait and watch the 4523-29 level is decisively crossed.


DOUBTS REMAINED……The Indian markets moved up but left as debris of doubts while moving in such haste. The Bulls took the short-term advantage to make the retail shorts are covered in fear triggered further rally in Friday trades. The crude sliding from the important support level is a welcome sign as it would offer us to reduce the external fiscal burden due to oil imports. The India’s economy may stay for a while with out generating further fear of slow down in our growth.

The creeping uncertainties….The Nifty has to cross and trade above 4539-41 level to continue the up move to become a trend in the coming days. The Nifty has bottom support at 4449-51 level as first support and the better one at 4421-19 level. This can be achieved only when the RIL trades above 2220 level and the high shall cross the serious resistance at 2265 level. The ONGC is in better place good above 1065 level, so today it won’t considerably fall below that level.

The Wall crumbles…The Infy may manage to float above the support at 1640 level and may shuttle between 1770-1640 range till the second quarter results. In case Infy close & trades below the 1690 level and the Satyam trades below 409-06 support level could become the first signs of cracking in the IT stocks.

THE EFFORT IS TO SEE THE MARKETS WITH WHOLISTIC APPROACH BUT NOT IN ISOLATION.

The RIL’s history…

The Reliance of Mukesh Ambani has created history by pumping oil as India’s first private sector deep sea crude oil exploration from D-6 block at KG basin with a rate of 5,500 barrels per day. Reliance is selling the oil from D6 to HPCL's refinery at Visakhapatnam on spot basis. Where as his younger brother’s most valued RCOM lost market capitalization and its 10th position was given to LT in the list of top most valued companies by market cap.
The markets of Asia are trading in narrow band to take a side, so is our Nifty. The SGX Nifty is trading at 4335 level with a plus of 30 odd points. The Nifty has the initial resistance at 4339-45 level and the support existing at 4148-51 level as first support and the best can be expected at 4119-16 level.
The RIL news can save the day from a steep collapse; the RIL has support at 2015 and at 2000 level, the resistance can be expected at 2125-20 level and a move beyond will confirm the initial up trend. The ICICI bank is strong so long it trades above 609-07 level. The reality sector may face selling pressure as the fears looming large due these financial crisis.

Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The worst or bad…..

The financial markets worst may be over but the bad news continues to flow as days pass by. The markets surprisingly closed in positive note on week on week basis. The Monday to Friday turmoil is strictly specified to US and we swing in tune as we are associated.
The Nifty though touched a low of 3800 level but did not trade but took the advantage of buying at the bottom to scale up to 4300 level. This clearly suggests that the markets have some strength given the conditions.
The US turmoil will affect the software companies by 4-6 months but opened the doors of opportunities for next 3-4 years. This advantage will be used by the big tags.
The best opportunity once existed in the retail and office spaces, the real estate markets in India will take longer time than estimated and the days ahead are boom to doom. The billionaires club may replace the names of Indians in this sector with the owners of alternative energy and commodity traders in steel, copper and aluminum.
The new wealth creators likely to emerge from the companies engaged in Natural resources exploration be it oil, gas, mining of coal, copper, iron ore and those engaged in trading of these resources. The companies engaged in infrastructure development now in pipe line construction for gas transportation and city gas distribution, the port and air port construction companies will benefit the most in India.

Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

THE COMBINED EFFORTS…..

The markets recovered very sharply with the combined efforts of the leading governments to end the crisis.
The markets in India recovered very sharply with the FM statement and the positive news flow from the US efforts to bail out the current crisis.
The positive news flow is around the corner to lift the sagging spirits of the investors. Now the issues are a global phenomena and every body is curious with tight nerves.
The Asian markets are jumping in joy and relief from the nightmares. The Hang Seng, one of the worst performers is up by 1,110 points (6.3% up), the Nikkei is up by 378 points (3.3% up). The SGX Nifty is at 4270 level, nearly up above 220 points.

The ADR’s are well above 7% to 15%. The Indian ADRs gained more value as HDFC bank more than 11%, ICIC Bank 11%, MTNL above 15% and the tech pack Satyam and Infy around 2% but Wipro up by 7%.
The Nifty will be in the pull back support and may gain strength so long it trades above 4080 level and will gain momentum to up ward journey if it could trade above 4365 level.

Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The sole strength “not enough”…..

The markets struggling to keep its head above the floods of crying (not tears) waters of US financial crises. Though our houses were not set to blaze but while we are also staying in the same colony of global equalities, it is a prudent measure to sprinkle some waters to calm down the impetus, so the markets are down and adjusting to shred out the husk from the grain.

The US markets always enjoys the surprises of publishing wrong financial statements or false statements, be it Enron, Baer Streans, Fennie Mae, Freddie Mac or the recent collapses of Lehman, Merrill Lynch and AIG, all went through sound until a day before the death warrant announced by their CEOs. Now no news is good news than the bad news of the crumbling fellow neighbor. As of now, the markets crashed due to simply mismanagement by the world renowned companies and the regulators at the helm. There is no hope for next 10-15 days, till the fallout debris is cleared and the new beginning begins.

The ADAG announces that RNRL is the sole beneficiary of the future projects in Cement, Steel and transportation with a whooping 65000 cr investment plans. Yesterday announced the Relcap will become the leader in insurance, asset management with one lakh crore AUM and other banking services. A day before yesterday announced that the RelInfra will bid the Mumbai metrotrans, fly over and other infra businesses. The Rpower will bid for private Nuclear power generation apart from the earlier planned Rs 60,000 cr power business.

Our planners are expecting huge investments in infra structure, SEZs to a tune of 16 lakh crore for next 4-5 years. The investment potential and rate of return is positive in India but the global financial chaos may force to draw different rules for the future investments that may take a longer period than expected.

Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The efforts to make-up….

The markets in India are undoubtedly out-performing the rest, especially in the emerging markets. The US financial sector turmoil making the global equities to accept the carry forward effect falls in tune with that effect. The tails spin movement of the equities eroding the trader’s net worth by triggering the stop losses. The likely wood of the bail out of Merrill Lynch in US has eaten away the BOA capitalization and no takers for Lehman Brothers are a serious concern to the global markets.

If we start recollecting the series of happing right from the first signs of Sub-prime issue surfaced in July-aug-07, the investment Gurus like Buffet has warned the serious consequences of the Sub-prime as it is was compared with a sleeping volcano.

Back to home the out look for the BPO & software services has become bleak to dark. The opportunity may arise only after April-June-09. The Investment in reality sector will be badly affected as the fund inflow will be drastically reduced.

The only hope that can survive our markets is the self sufficient infra development investments from the Govt and a little bit support from the ADB loan and World Bank. The promising sectors for at these crises are Power including the Nuclear power, Pharma & CRAMS and the ever green FMCG. The falling rupee can save our export oriented cotton, ready-mades and the tea sector.

Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Just to remind u…

The effort is to make you understand the in built positions that accumulates over a peroid of time for a big move on a later day.......
In my previous postings I discussed as......
The roller coaster…. The Nifty has support first support at 4449 and at 4421-16 level which is crucial and the markets shell not get any supply of shorts at this level. If Nifty could trade above 4481-3 level is a bullish sign but the high had to be crossed the minor resistance at 4505-08 level for this day.

The alliances & offers ……..The Nifty has good support at 4320 and even a better support at 4280 level. The Nifty shall open with a gap of 45 points above 4395-97 level and the high has to be crossed the first resistance at 4415-20 level. I think that this resistance will be crossed with out much pain unless there is huge fall in the Asian stocks.

The real challenge for Nifty is to trade above 4450-55 level to threaten the bears to cover their shorts. I think the retail investors will cover at 4450 level but the HNIs and deep pockets may wait and watch the 4523-29 level is decisively crossed.

DOUBTS REMAINED……The Indian markets moved up but left as debris of doubts while moving in such haste. The Bulls took the short-term advantage to make the retail shorts are covered in fear triggered further rally in Friday trades. The crude sliding from the important support level is a welcome sign as it would offer us to reduce the external fiscal burden due to oil imports. The India’s economy may stay for a while with out generating further fear of slow down in our growth.

The creeping uncertainties….The Nifty has to cross and trade above 4539-41 level to continue the up move to become a trend in the coming days. The Nifty has bottom support at 4449-51 level as first support and the better one at 4421-19 level. This can be achieved only when the RIL trades above 2220 level and the high shall cross the serious resistance at 2265 level. The ONGC is in better place good above 1065 level, so today it won’t considerably fall below that level.

The Wall crumbles…The Infy may manage to float above the support at 1640 level and may shuttle between 1770-1640 range till the second quarter results. In case Infy close & trades below the 1690 level and the Satyam trades below 409-06 support level could become the first signs of cracking in the IT stocks.

The consolidation move………The regular readers will observe the RIL strong above 2220 level and weak below 2193 level which was nose dived during the early trade to 2146 level.

Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The inflation down…

The inflation was down to 12.10% from 12.34%, extended the decline curve to a consecutive third week but our markets are also down in-spite of the slowing down of inflation and the falling crude. The markets are worried over the future growth prospects rather than the present favourable news.
A survey showed that the major companies in US cut their IT budgets by 40%, the firms put on hold increasing. The Reuters survey with eminent economists revealed a fact the developed nations are now grapping with credit crunch and a year of recession for sure.
The DOT, Department of Telecom, plans to complete the auction by 30 Sep-08, has changed the guidelines to participate in 3G auction to those who have prior experience in 3G can bid and have to pay the pan India license fee. The Broadband Wireless Access (BWA) services got new frequency band of 2.3 GHz in addition to the 2.5 GHz band.
The MARKET pulse check by STOCKOMETER: as posted in the morning the Nifty made a high at 4399.30 and a low at 4272.75…( The Nifty is weak below 4391-93 level and to see the upward movement then it has to trade above 4480 level. So at present we are struggling to protect our supports at the bottom level. As such the bottoms supports are below 4350 level are close to one another. The 4339-41, 4321-19 and the 4285-89 will come at this critical time but the problem is the pressure on the higher levels).

Can we bottomed out…?...

The US markets recovered but the Asian majors are in red with deep cut may place our markets in red. The markets are expected to see some recovery in the fag end to see the bottoming out at 4250-60 is intact. The SGX Nifty is currently at 4338, a discount of more than 60 points. The Hang Seng down by 475 points (2.37%), The Nikkei is down by 150 points (1.2%) may put further pressure on our markets.
The Nifty is weak below 4391-93 level and to see the upward movement then it has to trade above 4480 level. So at present we are struggling to protect our supports at the bottom level. As such the bottoms supports are below 4350 level are close to one another. The 4339-41, 4321-19 and the 4285-89 will come at this critical time but the problem is the pressure on the higher levels.
The RIL news to increase the gas from D-6 block, LT 750+ cr orders and the BHEL 2200+ cr orders and scouting for new alliance with GE, the telecom investments all are now discounted will get life when the markets turn up.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Crude falls below 100…..

The crude oil the biggest trouble shooter in the fist and second quarter up to July touched a high close to 150 dollar a barrel now fell below 100 dollar due to the global economy slow down. The Indian infrastructure growth declined to 4.3 % compared to 7.2% last year but a consoling factor is it inched up when compared to last month at 3.4%. The Rupee breached the 45 mark against dollar, a nearly two year low.
The Indian markets though flooded with good news but were down due to global cues. The Nifty was down by 68 points today but still in positive territory when compared to last Friday closing by 48 points. So we are still outperforming the major Asian markets on net basis.
The MARKET pulse check by STOCKOMETER:
The markets behaved in line with the morning suggested levels but failed to understand the Banking sector strength which proved that I am wrong.
(….There was no such deviation from the earlier levels but the gravity favouring the bears. So the banking lot is most favoured sector to sell. ICICI bank may again see 680 levels, even less. The SBI has support at 1496-93 level, Relcap has support at 1286 level and the best could be at 1269-71 level. The other stock has earlier levels suggested are valid for this day.
The ICICI bank made a high at 704 and low at 686.35. The SBI touched high at 1583.70 and low at 1535, The Relcap made a high at 1355 and low touched at 1315.0
The traders might have observed how ONGC fell below 1093 to touch a low of 1053.15, DLF failed to cross 515 level and took support at 496.0, the JP failed to cross 176. All these levels were earlier discussed.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The meltdown continues…..

The markets lost every thing they gained as the fear crystalising and shadow of US economic slow down are fast spreading the Asia and other emerging markets. The Indian ADRs lost more much value as HDFC bank lost more than 7%, ICIC Bank lost 5.77% and the tech pack lost around 2.5%.
The Hang Seng lost 345 (1.68%), Nikkei lost 131 points (1.06%) and our SGX Nifty is trading around 4445 level.
There was no such deviation from the earlier levels but the gravity favouring the bears. So the banking lot is most favoured sector to sell. ICICI bank may again see 680 levels, even less. The SBI has support at 1496-93 level, Relcap has support at 1286 level and the best could be at 1269-71 level.
The other stock has earlier levels suggested are valid for this day.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The consolidation …

The markets took support from the heavy weights like Bharti, RCOM, LT, SUZLON, RIL, ONGC and ICICI Bank. They either advanced a bit or gave bottom support from further erosion.
The markets are taking time to see that the final hurdle at US senate to complete the process with out any postponement.
The RBI’s “inflation watch” kept the markets keeps guessing the new Governors calculation on the money supply.
The MARKET pulse check by STOCKOMETER: the markets took support at the crucial level as expected and closed on a positive level above the resistance level at 4450. I mentioned in the morning that ….(The opening will be influenced by the rest of the world but the closing is very important to see the strength in our markets to claim that the N-deal and emerging blue chip market.)
…(..The Nifty has support first support at 4449 and at 4421-16 level which is crucial and the markets shell not get any supply of shorts at this level. If Nifty could trade above 4481-3 level is a bullish sign but the high had to be crossed the minor resistance at 4505-08 level for this day). The NIFTY high at 4497.50 and the low at 4418.95

The Reliance has support at 2101-03 and the best support at 2088-91 level. The resistance at 2156-59 level…. The RIL high at 2159 and the low at 2086.55

The ONGC is good above 1109-1112 level and weak below 1093 level. The ONGC high at 1129.70 and the low at 1052.65 but it did not trade below 1093 level.

The ICICI bank good above 726-24 level for further appreciation. The support can be expected at 696-93 level. The ICICI bank high at 717.90 and the low at 700.0
The DLF is good above 525 level, The DLF high at 509 and the low at 499.25
The JP is good above 176 level. The JP high at 174 and the low at 169.15
....(The fact is that almost all stocks are in consolidation mode above their support levels and close to the resistance levels. So they are in trading range with negative to positive bias rather than pure negative view.


The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The roller coaster….

The Asian markets are trading lower with more than 2 percent cut. The Hang seng down by 475 points, the Nikkei is down by 198 points, shows that the euphoria short lived for a day. The SGX Nifty is trading lower by 56 points at 4445 level. The opening will be influenced by the rest of the world but the closing is very important to see the strength in our markets to claim that the N-deal and emerging blue chip market.
There are more positive news that needs attention apart from the N-deal euphoria. The 3G auction process, The DII’s can increase their holdings in Stock exchanges up to 15%. the Maharasra govt. increasing the FSI in the prime locals close to sea shore and the courts granting the conversion of old/depilated houses in Mumbai to be converted as Flats can increase opportunities for pure housing constructions companies.

The Nifty has support first support at 4449 and at 4421-16 level which is crucial and the markets shell not get any supply of shorts at this level. If Nifty could trade above 4481-3 level is a bullish sign but the high had to be crossed the minor resistance at 4505-08 level for this day.

The Reliance has support at 2101-03 and the best support at 2088-91 level. The resistance at 2156-59 level, above 2169-71 it gains momentum to touch 2340 level in coming days and simultaneously the Nifty crosses the 4650 resistance.
The ONGC is good above 1109-1112 level and weak below 1093 level.
The ICICI bank good above 726-24 level for further appreciation. The support can be expected at 696-93 level.
The DLF is good above 525 level and the JP is good above 176 level.
The fact is that almost all stocks are in consolidation mode above their support levels and close to the resistance levels. So they are in trading range with negative to positive bias rather than pure negative view.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The BULLS need support…..

The best opening after a long gap was fizzled out due to profit booking and fresh shorts by the mighty. The markets were void of buying at higher level as the volumes speak. The good news is that the earlier resistances were easily crossed due to the NSG waiver other wise a difficult task given the market conditions. Now the challenge is to take from these levels to cross the 4650 resistance.
The MARKET pulse check by STOCKOMETER: the markets had a decent rally touch the 4558 level. They could not hold above the 4530 level for a longer period, succumbed to the selling pressure. In my last night post mentioned the condition as (…..The real challenge for Nifty is to trade above 4450-55 level to threaten the bears to cover their shorts. I think the retail investors will cover at 4450 level but the HNIs and deep pockets may wait and watch the 4523-29 level is decisively crossed).

In the morning posted ….The Bhel is having first resistance at 1771-73, so it is good if it opens & trade above that level. The next resistance was at 1830 level. It shall not trade below 1685 from where it may loose the fancy. The BHEL opened at 1846.6 and the high touched at 1899.0

The L&T is having first resistance at 2681-83, so it is good if it opens & trade above that level. The next resistance was at 2706-09 level. It shall not trade below 2525 from where it may loose the fancy. The L&T opened at 2740 and the high touched at 2888.80

The REL Infra is having first resistance at 1041-43, so it is good if it opens & trade above that level. The next resistance was at 1088-89 level. It shall not trade below 975 from where it may loose the fancy. The REL Infra opened at 1053 and the high touched at 1109.0

The NTPC is having first resistance at 177-76, so it is good if it opens & trade above that level. The next resistance was at 185 levels. It shall not trade below 168-67 from where it may loose the fancy. The NTPC opened at 189.0 and the high touched at 192.0

The Punjlloyd is having first resistance at 310-09, so it is good if it opens & trade above that level. The next resistance was at 326-29 level. It shall not trade below 293 from where it may loose the fancy. The Punj opened at 307 and the high touched at 323.85

The RIL is good above 2131 level and Resistance at 2168-69. The RIL opened at 2199 and the high touched at 2199 but the traders might have see that the RIL could not trade above 2169.0 level.

The ONGC likely to cross the resistance at 1109-14. The ONGC opened at 1080 and the high touched at 1124.60

The ICICI bank is good above 696 and will rally above 701-03 level. The ICICI opened at 721.05 and the high touched at 750.0

The SBI is good above 1521 level and rally 1550 level. The SBI opened at 1560 and the high touched at 1610.0

The Relcap has resistance at 1376-79 level above that it will rally to 1400 range. The Relcap opened at 1380 and the high touched at 1418.70. In my previous posts I mentioned …. (…The Relcap is struggling to cross the resistance at 1420-40 range which may live for some more time. It is good above 1380 level but weak below 1349 level).


The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The N-deal affect…

The markets are likely to show their reactions over the N-deal and the companies directly benefit will act the most. The best from the markets can be expected to the following scrips.

The Bhel is having first resistance at 1771-73, so it is good if it opens & trade above that level. The next resistance was at 1830 level. It shall not trade below 1685 from where it may loose the fancy.
The L&T is having first resistance at 2681-83, so it is good if it opens & trade above that level. The next resistance was at 2706-09 level. It shall not trade below 2525 from where it may loose the fancy.
The REL Infra is having first resistance at 1041-43, so it is good if it opens & trade above that level. The next resistance was at 1088-89 level. It shall not trade below 975 from where it may loose the fancy.
The NTPC is having first resistance at 177-76, so it is good if it opens & trade above that level. The next resistance was at 185 levels. It shall not trade below 168-67 from where it may loose the fancy.
The Punjlloyd is having first resistance at 310-09, so it is good if it opens & trade above that level. The next resistance was at 326-29 level. It shall not trade below 293 from where it may loose the fancy.
The Tata power & R-power are the front runners to start private nuclear power generation may find buying support.

The Asian markets are in jubilant mood to recover the last week losses. The Hang Seng is adding 768 points and the Nikkei with 435 points. The SGX is now at 4555 with 190 positive points.

The RIL is good above 2131 level and Resistance at 2168-69. The ONGC likely to cross the resistance at 1109-14.
The ICICI bank is good above 696 and will rally above 701-03 level.
The SBI is good above 1521 level and rally 1550 level.
The Relcap has resistance at 1376-79 level above that it will rally to 1400 range.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The alliances & offers .........

The market reaction to the much awaited NSG waiver has to be seen in the bourses. The companies are gearing themselves to make use of the opportunity to form alliances to access the technology and EPC expertise that is bundled not only at the national level but also in the international front.

The Bush Govt. has to sign the deal with out much discussion and delay so that the efforts made are fully rewarded. The foreign companies may come forward to form alliances with the front line infra companies in the next 6 months. The fruits of these efforts can be enjoyed only after 2010, a gestation period that is required to start new projects as the land problems are already existed and may wide spread to oppose to this inherent radio active danger involved.

The top power and infra companies can sleep on their huge investments & executable back log orders. The huge capital requirements to implement these projects, financing modalities and profitability of these works shall not be questioned at this our. The local political parties may wait and watch the actual details of the project made public but the markets may react positively.

The Nifty has good support at 4320 and even a better support at 4280 level. The Nifty shall open with a gap of 45 points above 4395-97 level and the high has to be crossed the first resistance at 4415-20 level. I think that this resistance will be crossed with out much pain unless there is huge fall in the Asian stocks.

The real challenge for Nifty is to trade above 4450-55 level to threaten the bears to cover their shorts. I think the retail investors will cover at 4450 level but the HNIs and deep pockets may wait and watch the 4523-29 level is decisively crossed.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The alliances & offers.......

The market reaction to the much awaited NSG waiver has to be seen in the bourses. The companies are gearing themselves to make use of the opportunity to form alliances to access the technology and EPC expertise that is bundled not only at the national level but also in the international front.
The Bush Govt. has to sign the deal with out much discussion and delay so that the efforts made are fully rewarded. The foreign companies may come forward to form alliances with the front line infra companies in the next 6 months. The fruits of these efforts can be enjoyed only after 2010, a gestation period that is required to start new projects as the land problems are already existed and may wide spread to oppose to this inherent radio active danger involved.
The top power and infra companies can sleep on their huge investment plans & executable back log orders. The huge capital requirements to implement these projects, financing modalities and profitability of these works shall not be questioned at this our. The local political parties may wait and watch the actual details of the project made public but the markets may react positively.

The Nifty has good support at 4320 and even a better support at 4280 level. The Nifty shall open with a gap of 45 points above 4395-97 level and the high has to be crossed the first resistance at 4415-20 level. I think that this resistance will be crossed with out much pain unless there is huge fall in the Asian stocks.

The real challenge for Nifty is to trade above 4450-55 level to threaten the bears to cover their shorts. I think the retail investors will cover at 4450 level but the HNIs and deep pockets may wait and watch the 4523-29 level is decisively crossed.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The "Big Win" & political compulsions….

The economically and politically strong Big Brother US, determined efforts by Bush and the administration could make it possible to see that the NSG approve the waiver to India. The historic day closed the decades of nuclear isolation and opened new doors for both energy security and the business opportunity. The countries like New Zealand, Austria, Norway Ireland and our neighbor China made the Indian officials run pillar to post to convince them who expressed serious reservations for such a waiver. Our well know deal maker and cracker, the External Affairs Minister, Pranab Mukharjee made the last minute efforts by bringing his expertise to a focal point, made the history.
In my earlier posts mentioned about the biggest beneficiaries of the N-deal, estimated that a business of 40 billion dollars over a period of 10 years. This is nothing but an assured business to our capital goods, power and infra companies. The ancillary units small and medium may find their cake. The external business opportunity is enormous apart from the mining operations that the country will open in search of Uranium, in the locally available mineral rich states to ensure a buffer stock.
The Singur trouble is getting sign of amicable solution, the Tata’s has to decide. The big issues are being settled amicably may give some signs of relief.

The Nifty may get bottom support in spite of the global melt down; a de-coupled movement in the short-term is expected. The short term benefits are negligible with the deal, the HNIs, MFs and the FIIs many not jump to buy these stocks but at least don’t throw away the blue chips when the exuberance is high.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The N-deal confusion.....

The Indian govt. was forced to take defensive steps on a sliding floor with little grip over the issue. The present situation is now a forced compulsive acceptance of the dictates by the might. The political situation has become fluid till concrete facing measures are taken thought a different interpretation to the presentation of the issue.
The equity markets across the globe no matter what the present rate at which crude is trading or the falling inflation but worried on the deceleration of the economic growth. This situation is worse with the emerging markets whose dependence is more on US, the real trigger of trouble opened.
The Indian markets may escape the deep cut if the NSG accepts the India’s proposal on N-deal, then a huge investment opportunity can be generated for next 10 years, be it in capital goods, construction or in mining. Let’s wait and hope for the best.

The MARKET pulse check by STOCKOMETER: The markets as of now are in line with the global cues. The Nifty made a low at 4328.90 (….. the strength will be gained fast if it holds above the immediate support level at 4343-41 level).

The RIL is good at 2100-2097 level, the next support at 2081-79 level. The RIL made a high at 2105 and low at 2065.

The ONGC may get support at 1023-20 level, made low at 1040.15, a very good support.
The Infy may get support at 1706-08 level will become weak below 1690 level, today low at 1706.50

The DLF is in the yesterday levels. DLF made a high at 515.5 from where the rally triggered two days back.(…The DLF is good above 515 levels and it shall not trade below 503 levels…)

The Tata Steel may fined some new bottom at 560 level or even below, low touched at 555.0
The RCOM once again get support at 379-81 level, but likely to see a new bottom, low touched at 384.50

The SBI has support at 1467-71 level and next support at 1446-45 level. The low touched at 1470.0

The ICICI bank may get first support at 678-81 level and may find buyers at 661-59 level, The low touched at 680

The Relcap may get support at 1305-03 level and the best could be at 1281-83 level. The low touched at 1307.20

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The Wall crumbles….

The Wallstreet crumbled last night and fell on the Asian markets, cracking by more than 2.5%. The Indian markets are about to face the threat, the strength will be gained fast if it holds above the immediate support level at 4343-41 level. The Hang Seng is struggling to hold the bottoms as it is continuously bleeding, today lost by 555 points and the Nikkei is beaten down with its economic and political troubles lost 320 points.

The ADRs slumped by 5% in banking stocks and the techs lost by more than 2%.
The troubled times exhibits opportunities to the institutional investors to come forward and buy the blue chips. The underperformer has to get the bottom support and investors shall come forward to buy at the so called higher levels rather than resorting for profit booking/shorting with pessimistic view. In this category the reality sector, especially DLF has to trade above 520 and cross the 570-75 resistance, then the markets see a sustained buying. The Infy may manage to float above the support at 1640 level and may shuttle between 1770-1640 range till the second quarter results. In case Infy close & trades below the 1690 level and the Satyam trades below 409-06 support level could become the first signs of cracking in the IT stocks.
The technical bottom supports may not come to rescue when the floods of supply is offered. But the broad range can give some idea of the movements.
The RIL is good at 2100-2097 level, the next support at 2081-79 level.
The ONGC may get support at 1023-20 level.
The Infy may get support at 1706-08 level will become weak below 1690 level.
The DLF is in the yesterday levels.
The Tata Steel may fine some new bottom at 560 level or even below.
The RCOM once again get support at 379-81 level, but likely to see a new bottom.
The SBI has support at 1467-71 level and next support at 1446-45 level.
The ICICI bank may get first support at 678-81 level and may find buyers at 661-59 level.
The Relcap may get support at 1305-03 level and the best could be at 1281-83 level.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The FALLING inflation....

The Asian Markets were down so was our markets. The markets behaved in line with our expectations but very choppy trade might have forced to book losses every time due to the swings.

The inflation in a consecutive second week fell to 12.34% from 12.40% may give some more strength to Bulls but the foreign debt rose by 30% to touch more than 221 billion dollars is a long term concern.

The ECBs rose by 49 % to touch 62.02 billion dollars as on 31st March this year. The External Commercial Barrowings raised by the Indian corporate world will put lot of pressure on the companies as the dollar appreciated from 39 to 44 rupees during this year. So any slow down in implementation of projects and postponing the commissioning of such projects will impact the bottom line.

The MARKET pulse check by STOCKOMETER: The traders might have noticed that the Nifty took support at 4450 level and later decisively at 4419.35 as suggested in the morning posting. (The Nifty has bottom support at 4449-51 level as first support and the better one at 4421-19 level).

For today, the RIL has resistance at 2243-41 level and the support at 2161-65 level. The RIL touched a low at 2132 and the high registered at 2250.The ONGC may get support at 1065 level. The low registered at 1052.80 but it did not trade below 1065 level.The SBIN has resistance at 1553-56 level above that level it will touch 1591-89 level. The Support expected to come at 1471-67 level. The SBI low touched at 1461.45 and high touched at 1546.70

The ICICI will rally further if it trades above740 level, the immediate resistance at 729-31 level, support can be expected at 691-693 level. The High touched at 730 and the low touched at 694.15

The RCOM one of the weakest stock in the Nifty is good above 405-03 level and may find resistance at 411-15 range, the reasonable support at 391-93 level. The RCOM high touched at 405.0 and the low touched at 392.0

The DLF is good above 515 levels and it shall not trade below 503 levels to see the up move continued in future. The DLF high touched at 531.5 and the low touched at 506.25

The Tata Steel failed to cross the resistance at 591 and the SAIL failed to cross 153-154 level. The RPL failed to cross the resistance at 161 and the support at 153-57 level was not violated either.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The creeping uncertainties….

We are there but there are developments across the globe, now the second biggest economy Japan facing political uncertainties as the Prime Minister resigned on 2nd, but the Nikkei closed in positive territory on 3rd, the Hang Seng lost 457 points but we were at Ganesh Puja.

The real challenge is that the previous jubilant mood can be carried further as the new opportunity at hand can be used by Bulls is the question at this moment?. The newspaper headlines quoting on the Indo-US nuclear deal that come for discussions at the NSG meet will reveal the conditions and proposed restrictions on India to conduct future nuclear tests. The Asian markets are bleeding in red as Hang Seng lost 140 points, Nikkei lost 45 points and the SGX is now quoting at 4450 level a 55 points down from the Friday closing.

The Nifty has to cross and trade above 4539-41 level to continue the up move to become a trend in the coming days. The Nifty has bottom support at 4449-51 level as first support and the better one at 4421-19 level. This can be achieved only when the RIL trades above 2220 level and the high shall cross the serious resistance at 2265 level. The ONGC is in better place good above 1065 level, so today it won’t considerably fall below that level.

For today, the RIL has resistance at 2243-41 level and the support at 2161-65 level.
The ONGC may get support at 1065 level. The SBIN has resistance at 1553-56 level above that level it will touch 1591-89 level. The Support expected to come at 1471-67 level.
The ICICI will rally further if it trades above740 level, the immediate resistance at 729-31 level, support can be expected at 691-693 level. The RCOM one of the weakest stock in the Nifty is good above 405-03 level and may find resistance at 411-15 range, the reasonable support at 391-93 level.
The reality pack may get some selling pressure, the DLF is good above 515 levels and it shall not trade below 503 levels to see the up move continued in future.
The Tata Steel, Sail and RPL are in their previous levels.
The NTPC and BHEL will see a knee jerk reaction in case any negative developments at NSG meeting. Incase NTPC trades below 171.90 and BHEL trades below 1646 level, expect some smoke before the fire engulfs.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

DOUBTS REMAINED……

The Indian markets moved up but left as debris of doubts while moving in such haste. The Bulls took the short-term advantage to make the retail shorts are covered in fear triggered further rally in Friday trades. The crude sliding from the important support level is a welcome sign as it would offer us to reduce the external fiscal burden due to oil imports. The India’s economy may stay for a while with out generating further fear of slow down in our growth.

The strength in which our companies are operating is being put to pressure as there is considerable change in the economic conditions and the global slow down. The Indian exports are less than 2% when compared to world trade but for us as those three Olympic medals are so worthy to celebrate with out comparing the China’s, likewise the growth in our exports stimulates our confidence to compete in the world competition.

The Friday move in banking sector and the reality sector are more than they deserve at this juncture. The move will help to off load some more quantity while it turns to ride down southwards. But the technicals suggest that the Nifty far away from the verge of fall. The Nifty is good above 4435, as an immediate support level but the conditions favour the bulls so long it trades above 4365 level. So the Nifty may correct from these levels but doesn’t offer a situation for naked shorts at this critical juncture.


The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The''LONG" weighted.........

The Bulls made a killing in the bourses, along waited accumulation sparked with a stellar performance that even greeted the new RBI Governor.

The regular readers will notice the developments and the levels suggested were in line with the performance of the markets. A copy of the earlier suggestion will be pasted for study and reference……
Yester day posted as the markets may recover on the back of RIL up move which can save the markets if it trades above 2120 level and weak below 2104-06 level. The RIL got support at 2125. The ONGC is weak below 1015-18 level and good above 1040 level which may not possible to day(yesterday expected).But see the ONGC move today made, regidtered low at 1040.

I categorically mentioned in my previous posts as …. The Nifty as earlier said has support at 4280 level but it shall not trade below that level as it is a sacrosanct level with a small consideration up to 4240 level that could become as a last chance. The upper side pressure are used as opportunities to buy the stocks, enables the Bulls to run smoothly “turf clearing” exercise for a big up side move.

I clearly mentioned in the morning about the stock specific action and the equities fall in line with global action, likely take off at stocks like SBI, Relcap, ICICI bank, DLF, JP, RCOM and even Cairn fell as expected in the morning, the moves gone in our favour as the crude crashed even to 104 dollars breaching the 110-115 band.

Please try to read my earlier posts for better understanding of this situation.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Welcome SubbaRao….

The hearty welcome to Subba Rao to the helm of affairs at RBI to give a jubilant growth oriented financial directions to Indian economy.

The markets are good to hold above the immediate support level at 4280 level. The markets are likely to get more room to go upward as the resistance is decreasing. The SGX Nifty is now trading flat at 4370 with positive bias. The Hang Seng is struggling to stay above positive territory by 5 points but the Nikkei is in positive territory with 60 points up.

The markets move now will be determined by the global equity movements. The local news triggers are now company specific. The Suzlon buy in RE power reaches to 90% stake- the stock is good above 220 level and has bottom support at 208 and at 203.
The long drawn dispute went in favour of RCOM with Tata Communications may give some boost to the sagging stock price to float above 393 level, good above 406-05 weak below 381.
The fall in crude prices may dampen the Cairn but will help the BPCL, HPCL and the aviation sector.
The Tata Steel plans to buy the mine reserves may help the stock to move up as a temporary relief, good above 591 and may move to 640 level in line with the market movement.
The banking sector especially the SBI is good above 1375 level and can be considered that the markets lost the steam if it falls below 1340 level. For today, good above 1408-06 level may touch 1460 level.
The ICICI bank is good above 672 level and weak below 659 level, likely to touch 720 level in the coming days. The Relcap is struggling to cross the resistance at 1420-40 range which may live for some more time. It is good above 1380 level but weak below 1349 level.
The DLF could cross the 491 resistance may touch 540 level for today it has resistance at 509-11 level and once 515 resistance crossed may rally to 540 level.
The JP is good above 163 level and weak below 159 level.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The bottom building….

The global weakness was defied by the Indian markets though the fall was used to build positions. The markets are in bottom building exercise that helps the Nifty to stay above 4285 level. Today Nifty made a high of 4365 and the low touched at 4281.35. Yesterday night posted as (….……The Nifty has bottom support at 4281-83 level, keeps the faith in the up move).
In the morning it was posted as ...(The markets may recover on the back of RIL up move which can save the markets if it trades above 2120 level and weak below 2104-06 level.
The ONGC is weak below 1015-18 level and good above 1040 level which may not possible to day.
The Tata Steel that recovered on Friday has to trade above 591 level and good above 605 level. The Sail is good above 151-53 level).
The RIL and ONGC saved the day with out further damage; markets welcomed the RIL’s decision to cancel the proposed idea to transfer the assets of KG basin. The metal stocks turned weak as expected and the banking counters maintained the previous trend developed on Friday.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The continuation…….

The Bull move that filled confidence in the markets is likely to be challenged to day. The fall in the US and the weak Asian markets may fill distress in our markets. The SGX Nifty is now trading with 70 points loss at 4290 level, The Hang Seng is down by 375 points but the Nikkei is in negative territory with 180 points down.

The markets may recover on the back of RIL up move which can save the markets if it trades above 2120 level and weak below 2104-06 level. The ONGC is weak below 1015-18 level and good above 1040 level which may not possible to day. The Tata Steel that recovered on Friday has to trade above 591 level and good above 605 level. The Sail is good above 151-53 level.
The banking lot enthused by the falling inflation has support at the bottom level as they emerged to stay in positive territory with their 7 % up in Friday trades.
The reality sector which is dwindling, moving like pendulum may once again get the momentum once again. The DLF is weak below 485 and good above 491-93 level. The India Bulls real estate may face resistance at 291-93 level can touch 270-69 level. The sugar sector may find takers below 5-7% from the current levels. The Renuka is good at 103-105 level, Balrampur is good at 81-79 level. The level could become a very good opportunity to enter in an outperforming sector.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The Years ahead ….

The Bulls combined effort to bring the Nifty to a better level was based on selectively risen stocks with low volumes. The global weakness is always threatening to emerging markets like India to move up.

The euphoria that was generated yester day may be well challenged by the Bears if the Nifty fails to trade above 4375-79 level and shall cross the 4411-14 level to confirm the bull strength. The Nifty has bottom support at 4281-83 level, keeps the faith in the up move.

The RIL has scrapped the bad idea of transferring the assets of KG basin to it subsidiaries when the stock tanked by 15% from its recent highs. The ONGC expansion plans were not so enthused the markets as they were treated as long-term investments that can protect the depleting reserves of Bombay high. The Tata Steel consolidated results were good but the falling steel prices threaten to keep the growth even though the raw material prices are also falling.

Now the markets ready to accept the info stocks dependant on US revenue resources are likely to be down graded as the chances of Obama winning the presidential elections improves. The clear down trend can be seen if Satyam trades below 405-401 level and Infy trades below 1640 level.

The infra structure stocks are likely to gain strength as the investments in India likely to see a sea change after the new govt. takes oath in office of power in May-09. The long-term investors can make a bargain hunting in the infra structure stocks. In short term the focus will be in commodity business as the demand expansion took place before a planned investment in resource expansion.

The 3G policy has big promise to Telecom stocks but the internet service providers will eat away big chunk of profits as the Internet- telephony is to explode in India.
The broad band service likely to took over the mobile communication as the govt. will to go video-conference in a big way in coming two-three years for better governance. The retail and manufacturing companies will use this opportunity for management of raw material and finished product. After three or four year’s time power generation and power trading will have great future as the planned projects will be operationalised by that time.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.